Red Sox Poised for Yet Another Last Place Finish in 2024

 

Red Sox ownership's lack of interest in the team and regard for its fans is astonishing.

In the midst of self-imposed belt tightening, the Red Sox appear poised for yet another last place finish this season.

After having a $181.2M Opening Day payroll in 2023, Red Sox president Sam Kennedy said Friday night at the Winter Weekend event that the team’s payroll would probably drop again this season. The Sox currently have approximately $177.5M on the books for 2024, according to Roster Resource. Last year's figure ranked 12th in all of baseball, the first time in the 21st century that the Red Sox weren’t at least in the top ten in Opening Day spending. This year will mark the second.

So far, the club's only significant free agent signing was a two-year, $38.5M rebound deal for Lucas Giolito. Any further roster additions before spring training will likely be lower-tier free agents on short-term contracts. Yet, that could still require shedding some payroll first.

Meanwhile, the Sox still have the highest ticket prices in baseball. As long as Fenway Park remains a tourist destination for fans and travelers around the country, ownership is confident that they’ll continue to make plenty of money from ticket sales, Red Sox fans be damned.

This newfound frugality is unexpected and perhaps unexplainable. The Sox had the highest payroll in the game in 2018, the second highest in 2004 and 2007, and the third highest in 2013. The results were pretty spectacular each time.

No one should have expected Craig Breslow to come in guns blazing in his first year. He needs to assess the minor league system and see what he’s got. Which prospects does he really believe in? Who’s worth trading? This team is not two pieces from being a World Series contender, and Breslow knows it. He’s playing for 2025 and 2026. That said, he needs to do more this offseason to rebuild fan trust and give people a reason to go to Fenway and watch on TV. He needs to at least keep the Sox out of last place, make them competitive, and make them worth watching again.

Reasonable fans don’t want the Sox to do just anything; not every big ticket free agent makes sense and many will underperform their contracts. However, the Red Sox inability or unwillingness to make substantial improvements to the roster, particularly the rotation, are frustrating to the point of being maddening. 

Spring training is three weeks away. Here's the Red Sox projected 2024 rotation:

STARTER - CAREER STARTS, ERA, WHIP
Lucas Giolito - 178, 4.43, 1.25
Brayan Bello - 39, 4.37, 1.46
Nick Pivetta - 152, 4.86, 1.35
Kutter Crawford - 36, 4.74, 1.25

That leaves the rotation at least a man short. It's also a rotation mostly consisting of No. 4 and No. 5 starters, all of whom have career ERA's of roughly 4.50. Obviously, there is no ace to lead the staff. Tanner Houck and Garrett Whitlock have clearly proven that they belong in the bullpen, not the rotation. They are not solutions. The same could be fairly said about Pivetta and Crawford.

Yet, Breslow said in an interview that he’s comfortable letting Whitlock, Houck and Josh Winckowski compete for the fifth starter role. The team is already going to be relying on Pivetta and Crawford, both of whom should be in the bullpen anyway. 

The construction of the rotation is, at the least, complacent or negligent. It shows no regard for the team or the fans. All signs point to yet another last-place finish in 2024. 

The Sox have a decent core right now. They are not a World Series competitor, but why not sign Jordan Montgomery and at least make the club interesting and more competitive? How would giving him a 5-6 year deal screw up their timeline for contention? They seem to be placing all of their focus on the future and none on the present. They’re losing fans as a result. 

It’s pretty astonishing that after three last place finishes in the past four years, the Red Sox are still in the midst of a rebuild. The question of how much longer it will take is a really valid one. 

The Sox traded Mookie Betts four years ago, got nothing to show for it, and still haven’t recovered. If they had to sign one guy to a massive long-term contract, Mookie was that guy, not Rafael Devers, who they extended in a panic and under great public pressure. It’s quite apparent that the Sox grossly overpaid Devers (10 years, $313.5M), who had negative-9 defensive runs saved in 2023 and has negative-53 defensive runs saved in seven major league seasons. He'll need to move to DH sooner than later, and he's still just 27 years old! Screwing up the Mookie negotiations caused them to overplay their hand with Devers.

John Henry seems quite distracted by other interests; he didn’t even show up for Friday night's event. He wasn’t available to the media when Bloom was fired either, leaving the explaining to Sam Kennedy. Other than a few informal exchanges with reporters during the 2021 postseason and a few email exchanges with two reporters last February, Henry has not made himself available to the media in a press conference setting since February of 2020, almost four years ago. Yet, a lot has happened in the interim. The club has hired two managers, fired one chief baseball officer and hired another, lost a home-grown, cornerstone player in free agency, and given out the biggest contract in franchise history. They’ve also finished in last place three times in those four years. Yet, Henry is busy with other things. It shows. 

The team is being mismanaged and their brand is being ruined. Henry has clearly lost interest and should sell the franchise. Empty seats at Fenway and plunging NESN ratings may be the only way to get his attention.

Get ready for another long and disappointing season, Red Sox fans.

Rafael Devers Is Not a $300M Player

 A big divide remains in how the Red Sox value Rafael Devers and how he values himself.

The third baseman is supremely confident, viewing himself uniquely among his major league peers. He has made public statements that clearly indicate his belief in himself: 

"I’m a different player.”

"I know my worth.”

"I know the type of money I should be making.”

"I’m not focused on what other guys are making or what they are doing. I’m more focused on what I’m doing on the field and what I’m worth.”

These are the words of a self-assured young man, who doesn’t seem inclined to take any sort of hometown discount to re-sign with the Red Sox.

In Spring Training, the Red Sox reportedly offered Devers an extension in the neighborhood of eight years, $168 million — well below his market value.

The Red Sox recently raised their offer to Devers, but there is still about a $100 million gap between the two sides, according to Jon Heyman of the New York Post.

"Word is the Red Sox have now raised their offer to $200 million-plus, probably necessary given the Braves signed less-experienced star third baseman Austin Riley for $212 million," Heyman wrote. "However, with Devers only a year away from free agency, he seeks at least 10 years for $300 million-plus."

That's a big ask by Devers and big gap between the two sides.

No one doubts Devers’ ability with a bat in his hand. The issue comes down to his defense or lack thereof.

Advanced metrics have graded Devers as a subpar third baseman for his entire career.

In 2018, his first full season, Devers led the major leagues with 24 errors.

In 2019, he led all major league third basemen with 22 errors.

In the pandemic shortened 2020 season, Devers led all major league players with 14 errors, more than twice as many as any other AL third baseman, and had the lowest fielding percentage, .891, of all major league third basemen.

In 2021, Devers committed 22 errors, the highest total among major league third baseman, and the second-highest total among all players.

In 2022, he had 14 errors, a good year by his standards. However, he still led all AL third basemen. He also rated as six runs below average by measure of Defensive Runs Saved and two runs below par according to Statcast.

In sum, Devers has led either all American League third basemen or all major league third basemen in errors every year for five straight years.

He’s also rated as a below-average defender by measure of Defensive Runs Saved in every season of his career.

Baseball is a two-way sport, yet Devers is a defensive liability. He’s simply not a $300M player.

Devers will be 27 when he enters free agency. An eight-year pact would take him through his age 34 season, which is reasonable. A whopping $30M per season over eight years would amount to $240M. A 10-year pact at that AAV would be excessive and quite risky.

Devers is listed at 240lbs and could get bigger. He has been a sub-standandard third baseman his entire career. He will soon need to move off third. However, first base will likely occupied by Tristan Casas for at least the next six years.

Third baseman are more highly valued and therefore more highly paid than first baseman, who are more highly valued and higher paid than designated hitters. Paying Devers long-term third baseman money when you know he has to move to first or DH is bad business. 

The Red Sox know this. So do most other clubs.

The Rafael Devers Era in Boston Seems to Be Nearing Its End

 

Rafael Devers could soon be waving goodbye to Red Sox fans.

It’s been reported that Juan Soto turned down the Nationals’ 15-year, $440 million contract offer. To be clear, Soto turned down the biggest offer in the history of baseball, which is stunning.

Soto, who won't become a free agent until after 2024 season, has balls. He clearly believes he can get an even higher offer elsewhere. It's a big gamble; he'd better not get hurt in the next 2 1/2 seasons.

The issue obviously comes down to average annual value (AAV). Soto is a Scott Boras client; he not only wants the biggest contract in history, but also the highest AAV.

The $29.3 million per year in the Nationals' offer would rank only 15th among players, based on their 2022 salaries. That’s not good enough.

After repeatedly insisting that they wouldn’t trade Soto because they were determined to extend him, the Nats are now listening to trade offers.

This brings us to us to Rafael Devers, who has already rejected a contract extension offer made by the Red Sox in March because it was too low. Devers noted at the time that the Red Sox had never previously approached him about an extension. In retrospect, that was a mistake.

This is what Devers said after agreeing to his one-year, $11.2 million arbitration deal in March:

"It was tough, obviously, having to go back and forth about what my worth was because we have other guys they were saying, ‘This is what they are slotted at.’ But I was like, ‘That’s not me. I’m a different player and I know the type of player that I am.’ That’s really what it was."

"We all want to make a lot more money because of the performance and what we do for the team. That’s something that may be hard at first, but you know you’re worth and I know my worth. What it comes down to is I know the type of money I should be making, so that’s what I’m focused on."

"I’m not focused on what other guys are making or what they are doing. I’m more focused on what I’m doing on the field and what I’m worth. That’s why when it comes to those type of talks, where they are trying to compare different types of players, that doesn’t matter me because I know who I am and that’s what I focus on."

Simply put, Devers doesn't want to be compared to other players at his position; he sees himself as a unique talent. He views himself as one of the elite players in the game.

Devers will turn 26 this October, which means he'll reach free agency at age 27.

Clearly, he's not thinking of precedents when assessing his value. Forget Manny Machado's 10-year, $300 million deal, signed at age 26 or Nolan Arenado's 8-year, $260 million deal, signed at age 27.

Anthony Rendon’s absurd $35 million AAV, which he hasn't even come close to earning, is not even the starting point.

My sense is that Devers is looking for closer to $40 million per season, for a term of at least 10 years.

Devers is only two years older than Soto, who just turned down $440 million. Though they play different positions, their numbers are similar. Both are two-time All-Stars and World Series champions. Soto has a higher OPS (.980 vs .904) over the last four seasons, but Devers has 59 more extra-base hits in just 16 more games played.

The Red Sox would have received more favorable terms had they offered Devers a reasonable extension two years ago, buying out some of his arbitration years, but that ship has sailed.

It's getting harder and harder to imagine Devers being in a Red Sox uniform beyond next season, perhaps even beyond this season. I think the Red Sox will trade Devers this offseason; and if they believe their playoff aspirations are unrealistic this year, they could maximize his value by trading him by the Aug. 2 deadline. Don’t be surprised.

When asked this week about about reaching contract extensions with Devers and Xander Bogaerts, owner John Henry sounded ominous.

"It takes two to make a deal," he said. "I think it's clear both of them want to be here. We want them here. We made efforts in the past to try to sign players that we weren't able to sign.

"It's not 100 percent our fault when we don't end up signing a player. We've signed players where it's really worked out. We've signed others that…” Henry went on to say, without saying it directly, that other players haven’t worked out, which is true.

"The key thing I think with a long-term deal is to make it with the right players. For us at this point, both Raffy and Xander are two players we would love to have. In Xander's case, it could be till the end of his career. But players have rights and you have to respect that."

That's pretty disingenuous since the club gave Bogaerts a lowball offer of four years, $90 million, which was essentially asking him to honor the three years, $60 million on his current deal, and the Sox would throw in $30 million on a fourth and final year. Considering the $300-plus million contracts for Fernando Tatis Jr., Corey Seager, and Francisco Lindor, the Sox offer was absurd. It simply didn’t meet the current market.

We don’t know what exactly the Sox offered Devers, but it doesn’t require much imagination to figure that it was equally absurd.

Clearly, Devers wants to remain in Boston, telling MassLive on Friday, "If that (staying in Boston) can happen, that would be great. We know the type of city Boston is. If it were up to me, I’d stay here my whole career. It’s a great city to play for, great fans, great ballpark. Everything that involves the organization is great, so I hope I can finish my career here because that’s what I want.”

The Red Sox drew the line at $300 million for Mookie Betts, a more complete player than Devers. And they clearly feel burned by Chris Sale’s five-year, $145 million deal, which has a team option for 2025. The Sox extended Sale despite the lefty coming off an injury-plagued 2018 season, and his injuries have continued for the majority of the last four seasons.

Devers and Sale are different players, with different bodies, at different positions, but the Red Sox seem to have a sense of “Once bitten, twice shy.” They got burned by the Pablo Sandoval and David Price contracts as well.

Since Chaim Bloom took control of baseball operations, the Red Sox' biggest outlay has been a six-year, $140 million deal for second baseman Trevor Story. Devers is clearly looking for a contract about twice as long and more than twice as expensive. The Red Sox don’t seem willing to go there. So, it looks like we’re nearing the end of Devers' stay in Boston.

The Yankees must be salivating. Josh Donaldson’s contract comes off the books after next season, right when Devers reaches free agency.

Get ready, Red Sox fans.

This Red Sox Team Should Be Celebrated, Not Derided

 

Yes, the Red Sox getting swept by the Yankees in three straight home games was frustrating, dejecting and disheartening, especially when this team is vying for a Wild Card berth.

Sunday night's loss put Boston in the second Wild Card spot, one game behind their arch rivals, with six games left in their season. And Toronto is just one game behind Boston.

The Sox play three games in Baltimore against the 50-106 Orioles, and then finish out the season this weekend with three games in Washington against the 64-92 Nationals.

Those two teams are awful and the Red Sox could conceivably win all six games. Yet, this Red Sox team has been terribly inconsistent for the past two months and there are no easy or guaranteed wins for this bunch. 

While the Red Sox may beat up on the dregs of the major leagues, they are just 8-21 against teams with winning records since the trade deadline. That’s not an optimistic reality for a team with playoff aspirations. 

That said, the Red Sox are sort of playing with house money at this point. They were never supposed to be in this position in the first place. Fighting for a playoff spot in the season's final week was not in the cards for this club when the season started, according to the experts.

The Las Vegas sports books and Draft Kings all pegged the Red Sox win total at 80 ½.

I was a bit more optimistic. Here's what I wrote on April 1:

"Given their potent offense, I think the Sox are capable of 85 wins this season, which should be good enough for third place in the ever-challenging AL East."

Here we are on Sept. 27 and the Red Sox are 88-66, in third place in the AL East. The Olde Towne team is already three wins ahead of my optimistic projection, with six games to go. They're way ahead of what Vegas and Draft Kings projected.

No matter how many of these final six games the Sox win, they will almost certainly claim at least two of them, which would put them at 90 wins this season. That has to be viewed as a stunning accomplishment all by itself, well beyond any reasonable expectations.

The Red Sox used 33 pitchers this season, the most in franchise history. They also placed 11 players on the Covid injury list, which may have sealed their fate by early September.

This was supposed to be a bridge year anyway. The Red Sox will be a better team next season. Tanner Houck and Garrett Whitlock be better and more experienced. They will become rotation stalwarts, replacing Garrett Richards and Martin Perez, who spent much of this season as ineffective starters before being demoted to the bullpen. The Sox will likely target a starting pitcher in a trade or in free agency, as well.

Dustin Pedroia’s $12 million salary will finally come off this books this winter, freeing up some free agent money. However, the Sox will pay the Dodgers another $16 million for David Price next season, the final year of his current contract.

This team has a solid foundation, comprised by the aforementioned Houck and Whitlock, plus Chris Sale, Rafael Devers, Hunter Renfroe, Alex Verdugo and even Bobby Dalbec. And if the Sox do the right thing, Xander Bogaerts will be in Boston through the end of his career.

Hopefully, the worst of the coronavirus will be behind us all next year, and the Red Sox will not again have their roster devastated by quarantined players.

In short, there is much to look forward to in 2022. This year was just a preview and it gave us a lot to feel hopeful about. Good days are ahead, Red Sox fans.

Expect Danny Santana in Boston Soon, As Red Sox Shakeup Roster

 

The Red Sox entered the day with 217 runs scored, tied with the White Sox for the major league lead. That’s a byproduct of Boston’s major league-best .446 slugging percentage and .772 OPS. The Red Sox .264 batting average is also third in the majors.

However, all that offensive output is driven by just four players: 

J.D. Martinez - .340/.417/.601/1.018

Xander Bogaerts - .342/.401/.605/1.006

Rafael Devers - .278/.354/.583/.937

Alex Verdugo - .284/.345/.446/.791

Those four players are masking the deficiencies in the rest of the lineup, not just those in the bottom third of the order.

Marwin Gonzalez - .218/.310/.315/.624

Hunter Renfroe - .225/.258/.392/.650

Bobby Dalbec - .211/.262/.395/.657

Enrique Hernandez - .237/.296/.421/.717

Franchy Cordero - .167/.222/.226/.448

Gonzalez offers the team tremendous defensive versatility, making up for his offensive shortcomings. Similarly, Renfroe’s cannon-like arm and deft ability to patrol right field also make him an asset. 

The Sox still believe in Bobby Dalbec, who is coming off a 2020 showcase in which he delivered 8 homers and 16 RBI in just 80 at bats. In that brief span the first baseman compiled a .359 OBP and a .600 slugging; that's why there's still so much hope. Though Gonzalez could replace Dalbec at first, that would eliminate Gonzo's greatest asset: the ability to play multiple positions each week.

Hernandez could and should lose his leadoff spot. But, like Gonzalez, his defensive versatility assures him a spot in the lineup each day.

Then there’s Cordero, who simply isn’t justifying a roster spot at this point. Though he is speedy for a big guy, Cordero is not noted for his defense. With a roster shakeup in the offing, Cordero will almost certainly be the odd man out.

Who would replace him? Danny Santana, whom the Red Sox signed to a minor-league deal in March. 

Like Gonzalez and Hernandez, Santana can play virtually any defensive position, other than catcher. Then there’s his offensive versatility; Santana is also a switch-hitter. The super-utility player suffered a serious foot infection during spring training, which delayed his season. However, he has been raking during his minor-league rehab assignment and could be called up any day now.

The rub is that Santana is not on the 40-man roster, so a spot would have to be created. In other words, someone else needs to go. Though the Sox can demote Cordero since he has minor league options, they will not remove him from the 40-man roster.

Michael Chavis could also be sent back to Triple-A, but he will not be removed from the 40-man either.

Most likely, Brandon Brennan, whom the Red Sox claimed off waivers from Seattle on May 3, will be designated for assignment, creating space for Santana.

Boston has been operating with a 14-man pitching staff this season, which they’ve needed. That’s because not one Red Sox starter is averaging as many as six innings per outing this year, which has put a lot of pressure on the bullpen. That extra man is a nice luxury for Alex Cora. 

However, something has to give and the woeful output by half the Red Sox lineup may take precedence over pitching depth, at least at this point in the season. 

How Long Will Red Sox Continue to Tolerate Rafael Devers' Defensive Shortcomings?

 

That "E" behind Rafael Devers has become very symbolic.

The first two games of the 2021 season have only added to the ongoing concerns about Rafael Devers' ability to adequately play third base. For the past couple of years, his continuing miscues have led many to suggest that he needs to be shifted across the diamond to first base. 

In 2017, his rookie season, Devers committed the fourth-most errors (14) among MLB third baseman, despite playing in just 56 games. In 2018, Devers led the major leagues with 24 errors. In 2019, he led all major league third basemen with 22 errors. Last season, he once again led the majors with 14 errors in just 57 games. Additionally, Devers had the lowest fielding percentage among major league third basemen in two of the past three seasons.

A really troubling pattern has been established, and it can no longer be ignored. 

The idea has been floated, in the media at least, of moving Devers to first base and shifting Bobby Dalbec, a natural third baseman, to the hot corner. However, Devers has never played first and he would likely bring his defensive struggles with him across the diamond.  

And the designated hitter spot is blocked by JD Martinez, who is under contract through the 2022 season. 

The Red Sox may be running out of patience with Devers. And he could face some strong internal pressure from within the organization.

Tristan Casas is ranked as to the top prospect in Boston's farm system and No. 44 overall by MLB.com. The 21-year-old has played both first and third base in the minors, as has current first baseman Dalbec. Last year, I suggested that the Sox could shift Dalbec to third when Casas is brought to the majors, making Devers a trade chip.

While it might seem outlandish to suggest trading Devers, a player who is just 24 and isn’t eligible for free agency until after the 2023 season, he is a stone-cold defensive liability and his four-year track record is not an aberration. His youth and affordability would would make him an attractive trade chip to many clubs, who might be able to use him as a DH. As always, the Red Sox need starting pitching. 

However, Casas has just 433 minor league at-bats, meaning he is not yet ready for the majors. He will open this season with the High-A Greenville Drive, likely putting him at least a year or year-and-a-half from the majors. 

The problem is that the Sox may not be able to wait that long for Devers. His defensive shortcomings are the kind of liability that results in losses. One way or another, this cannot continue indefinitely. 

If Devers can revert to his 2019 offensive form, when he batted .311, slugged .555 and led the majors with 359 total bases, it could make up for his defensive miscues. In essence, he may be able to win more games with his bat than he’ll lose with his glove. But, after his reversion in 2020, that possibility remains nothing more than hope right now.  

Red Sox 2021 Preview: This Team Will Go As Far As the Rotation Takes Them

It's Opening Day! 

But what are we to make of the 2021 Red Sox? Well, the offense should be robust, for sure. But the starting pitching? That's what it will all come down to for this team, as with most others.

Though it may be hard to believe, the Red Sox actually led the American League with a .265 batting average last season. They also ranked third in on-base percentage (.330), slugging percentage (.445), and OPS (.776). And the Sox were also fifth in runs per game (4.87).

Yet, they did all of this in the absence of Mookie Betts and, largely, Andrew Benintendi.

Furthermore, J.D. Martinez looked like a high school hitter all season and Rafael Devers also regressed. Additionally, the Sox got essentially zero production from second base.

The takeaway is that offense was not the problem for Boston last season, and it will not be this season either. Martinez and Devers will revert to their norms, Kiki Hernandez will be an upgrade at second, Bobby Dalbec will have a full season to launch homers, and Alex Verdugo looks like an emerging All Star. Even Hunter Renfroe looks tailor-made for Fenway.

The initial evidence is already solid.

The Red Sox offense was very potent during spring training. Amongst all teams in both Grapefruit League and Cactus League action, Boston finished first in RBI (151), second in batting (.270), second in slugging (.487), second in OPS (.831), second in homers (45) and second in runs (159).

This team is built to score, and it appears they will need to do so prodigiously in order to compete this season. That’s because the starting pitching may, once again, be their Achilles heel.

Amongst all clubs, Boston's starters finished spring training 15th in opponents' batting average (.258), 16th in ERA (4.94), 17th in strikeouts (84), 19th in WHIP (1.38) and fourth-worst in walks (38).

Yes, it was only spring training, but if we're going to be excited and optimistic about the offense, then we need to be equally troubled by the starting pitching.

Those concerns only grew when it was announced that No. 1 starter Eduardo Rodriguez was suffering from a "dead arm" and was scratched from his Opening Day start at Fenway. He will start the season on the Injured List.

E-Rod looked fantastic this spring (13.2 IP, 11 hits, 15 Ks, 2 BB, 2.63 ERA), showing no ill-effects from missing the 2020 season. Perhaps this is just a bump in the road; we can only hope. But it's certainly worrisome.

The extended time off may have simply left Rodriguez's arm/shoulder weak and deconditioned, a matter that can be remedied by the training staff and a highly-structured throwing program. Again, we can only hope.

In his stead, Nathan Eovaldi, who has a 6.60 ERA this spring, will make his second-straight Opening Day start.

The starting pitching needs to be markedly better this season in order for the Sox to be competitive, or even worth watching.

Last season, Boston’s starting rotation had a 5.34 ERA, which was 13th out of the 15 teams in the AL. Red Sox pitchers allowed 5.85 runs per game, the most for the franchise since 1932. The Sox’ pitching was so bad that, despite their potent offense, they still had the fifth-worst run differential (-59) in the majors.

That's because the Red Sox used 16 different pitchers to start games in a mere 60-game season. For perspective, the 2004 Red Sox used eight starters over 162 games. The 2007 champs used nine starters, while the ’13 and ’18 champs each used 11.

The 2020 Red Sox employed a bunch of starters we'd never heard of. The list included guys like Ryan Weber, Matt Hall, Zack Godley, Andrew Triggs and Chris Mazza, as well as relievers Mike Kickham, Josh Osich, Robinson Leyer and Austin Brice. Old friends Ryan Brasier and Colten Brewer even made starts last year.

When the season ended, the club began jettisoning all of that flotsam and jetsam. The Sox also bid farewell to Dylan Covey, Robinson Leyer, Jeffrey Springs and Kyle Hart.

If you weren’t keeping track, 12 of the 15 pitchers listed above are either no longer with the organization or are off the 40-man roster. In essence, the majority of the pitching staff was remade in a single offseason. Thank goodness.

The rotation should, in theory, be much improved this season, highlighted by the return of Rodriguez, who suffered a COVID-related heart infection that derailed his 2020 season.

The most significant free agent addition to the staff is righty Garrett Richards, who is expected to be a big improvement from the host of Triple-A pitchers that made starts for Boston last year. The 32-year-old has amassed a 3.62 ERA and 1.26 WHIP over 10 seasons. Those are appealing numbers, and from 2014-2015 Richards looked like a budding ace with the Angels, until injuries derailed his career.

Richards was limited to six just starts apiece in 2016 and 2017, 16 starts in 2018, and a mere three starts in 2019, when he underwent Tommy John surgery. In the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, the righty made 10 starts for San Diego. Consequently, Richards hasn’t pitched more than 76 ⅓ innings in any season over the past five years. Overall, he's thrown just 198 2/3 total innings since the start of 2016.

It should worry Red Sox’ fans that over the past decade Richards has made at least 30 starts just once, and at least 25 starts just twice. The optimist will say he's well-rested. In reality, he’ll be quite limited this season. It’s reasonable to wonder if he can he even reach 150 innings; I’m dubious. If he can stay healthy, Richards could be a nice pickup for Boston. But there are just so many ifs.

Righty Nick Pivetta, who made two starts for Boston late last season, has always been intriguing because of his power arm and pure stuff. The Red Sox are hoping they can finally harness it. However, it can’t be ignored that Pivetta has a 5.40 ERA over more than 400 innings in the majors. The whole sales pitch with this guy is "potential."

The Sox will rely heavily on Eovaldi, who has made at least 30 starts just once in nine seasons. The righty has been plagued by injuries throughout his career.

Then there's Martín Pérez, who has a 4.70 ERA and 1.48 WHIP after nine seasons, in which he's made at least 30 starts just twice. The lefty is nothing more than a fifth starter.

There are questions everywhere. Who can be relied on to make at least 30 starts and throw at least 150 innings for Boston?

Tanner Houck, who has made just three major league starts, is the primary Triple-A depth option. He will open the season with the big league club and start the second game of the season.

Finally, Chris Sale will return some time this summer, which will provide the rotation with an enormous boost. He may not be back to full strength right away, but even at 80%, Sale is still better than most MLB pitchers.

Rule-5 draft pickup Garrett Whitlock could be a nice surprise. The righty was terrific in Grapefruit League action, throwing nine innings and allowing one run on eight hits and no walks. Oh, and he fanned 12 along the way. It shouldn't come as much of a surprise; Whitlock has a 12-8 record and a 2.41 ERA in 42 Minor League appearances (38 starts). Whitlock was particularly impressive in 2018, notching a 1.86 ERA over 23 appearances for three affiliates. That's why the Sox snatched him from the Yankees.

Whitlock will start the season in the bullpen, but he provides a nice depth option for the rotation. The question is whether he can be stretched out to start, if needed, and if the Sox are even willing to lean on a rookie pitcher who is just returning from Tommy John surgery.

The Sox desperately need to take a big leap forward from the misery and disappointment of last season. The 2020 Red Sox ended with a .400 winning percentage, which was the fourth worst in baseball.

Despite their abysmal season, the Sox had the third-highest payroll in baseball last year. No, this ownership group has never been stingy.

Though some fans may think the Red Sox have been cheap this offseason or, at the least, are disappointed that the team didn't sign any high-dollar free agents, it's worth noting that Boston's $205 million payroll is the second-highest in baseball after the Dodgers ($256 million).

The reality is that the Sox spent nearly $45 million on half a dozen free agents and a couple of trade acquisitions this winter. Instead of signing one or two really expensive free agents, Chaim Bloom decided to strategically allocate available dollars to multiple players, many of whom are quite versatile and offer flexibility in the field or the bullpen.

Sale, who will make $30 million this season, is the club's most expensive player, by far. After that, Xander Bogaerts represents a relative bargain at $20 million. And JD Martinez will make $19.375 million this year, which will also be a bargain if he reverts to his usual highly-productive self.

There is some dead weight on the roster this year, much of which will come off the books at season's end.

The Sox will pay newly retired Dustin Pedroia $12 million this season and they will pay the Royals $2.8 million toward Andrew Benintendi's 2021 salary. Additionally, the Sox will pay the Dodgers $16 million for David Price this season and next.

Add it all up and the Sox will be paying nearly $31 million this year for those three players to suit up for other clubs or not play at all.

We can bemoan guaranteed contracts, but that's the nature of the sport. This isn't the NFL.

After the 2022 season concludes, the Red Sox will have a lot of money to spend in free agency, and many of their top prospects should be graduating onto the big league roster. Good days lie ahead for Boston.

What’s particularly striking is just how much change this roster has undergone in only a couple of years. Just nine players remain from the Red Sox 2018 World Series roster, which was unimaginable even after the 2019 season. Those nine are: Matt Barnes, Ryan Brasier, Nathan Eovaldi, Eduardo Rodriguez, Chris Sale, Christian Vazquez, Xander Bogaerts, Rafeal Devers and JD Martinez.

As for this season, many prognosticators seem to think that the Sox will be a .500 ball club. Vegas puts Boston's odds of winning the World Series at 50/1. Obviously, this team's hopes are almost entirely hinged to a starting rotation that has more questions than answers. They will go as far as the starting five (or six or seven or whatever) will take them.

Given their potent offense, I think the Sox are capable of 85 wins this season, which should be good enough for third place in the ever-challenging AL East.

Let's check back in October and see how it all panned out.

In the meantime, play ball!