It's Opening Day!
But what are we to make of the 2021 Red Sox? Well, the offense should be robust, for sure. But the starting pitching? That's what it will all come down to for this team, as with most others.
Though it may be hard to believe, the Red Sox actually led the American League with a .265 batting average last season. They also ranked third in on-base percentage (.330), slugging percentage (.445), and OPS (.776). And the Sox were also fifth in runs per game (4.87).
Yet, they did all of this in the absence of Mookie Betts and, largely, Andrew Benintendi.
Furthermore, J.D. Martinez looked like a high school hitter all season and Rafael Devers also regressed. Additionally, the Sox got essentially zero production from second base.
The takeaway is that offense was not the problem for Boston last season, and it will not be this season either. Martinez and Devers will revert to their norms, Kiki Hernandez will be an upgrade at second, Bobby Dalbec will have a full season to launch homers, and Alex Verdugo looks like an emerging All Star. Even Hunter Renfroe looks tailor-made for Fenway.
The initial evidence is already solid.
The Red Sox offense was very potent during spring training. Amongst all teams in both Grapefruit League and Cactus League action, Boston finished first in RBI (151), second in batting (.270), second in slugging (.487), second in OPS (.831), second in homers (45) and second in runs (159).
This team is built to score, and it appears they will need to do so prodigiously in order to compete this season. That’s because the starting pitching may, once again, be their Achilles heel.
Amongst all clubs, Boston's starters finished spring training 15th in opponents' batting average (.258), 16th in ERA (4.94), 17th in strikeouts (84), 19th in WHIP (1.38) and fourth-worst in walks (38).
Yes, it was only spring training, but if we're going to be excited and optimistic about the offense, then we need to be equally troubled by the starting pitching.
Those concerns only grew when it was announced that No. 1 starter Eduardo Rodriguez was suffering from a "dead arm" and was scratched from his Opening Day start at Fenway. He will start the season on the Injured List.
E-Rod looked fantastic this spring (13.2 IP, 11 hits, 15 Ks, 2 BB, 2.63 ERA), showing no ill-effects from missing the 2020 season. Perhaps this is just a bump in the road; we can only hope. But it's certainly worrisome.
The extended time off may have simply left Rodriguez's arm/shoulder weak and deconditioned, a matter that can be remedied by the training staff and a highly-structured throwing program. Again, we can only hope.
In his stead, Nathan Eovaldi, who has a 6.60 ERA this spring, will make his second-straight Opening Day start.
The starting pitching needs to be markedly better this season in order for the Sox to be competitive, or even worth watching.
Last season, Boston’s starting rotation had a 5.34 ERA, which was 13th out of the 15 teams in the AL. Red Sox pitchers allowed 5.85 runs per game, the most for the franchise since 1932. The Sox’ pitching was so bad that, despite their potent offense, they still had the fifth-worst run differential (-59) in the majors.
That's because the Red Sox used 16 different pitchers to start games in a mere 60-game season. For perspective, the 2004 Red Sox used eight starters over 162 games. The 2007 champs used nine starters, while the ’13 and ’18 champs each used 11.
The 2020 Red Sox employed a bunch of starters we'd never heard of. The list included guys like Ryan Weber, Matt Hall, Zack Godley, Andrew Triggs and Chris Mazza, as well as relievers Mike Kickham, Josh Osich, Robinson Leyer and Austin Brice. Old friends Ryan Brasier and Colten Brewer even made starts last year.
When the season ended, the club began jettisoning all of that flotsam and jetsam. The Sox also bid farewell to Dylan Covey, Robinson Leyer, Jeffrey Springs and Kyle Hart.
If you weren’t keeping track, 12 of the 15 pitchers listed above are either no longer with the organization or are off the 40-man roster. In essence, the majority of the pitching staff was remade in a single offseason. Thank goodness.
The rotation should, in theory, be much improved this season, highlighted by the return of Rodriguez, who suffered a COVID-related heart infection that derailed his 2020 season.
The most significant free agent addition to the staff is righty Garrett Richards, who is expected to be a big improvement from the host of Triple-A pitchers that made starts for Boston last year. The 32-year-old has amassed a 3.62 ERA and 1.26 WHIP over 10 seasons. Those are appealing numbers, and from 2014-2015 Richards looked like a budding ace with the Angels, until injuries derailed his career.
Richards was limited to six just starts apiece in 2016 and 2017, 16 starts in 2018, and a mere three starts in 2019, when he underwent Tommy John surgery. In the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, the righty made 10 starts for San Diego. Consequently, Richards hasn’t pitched more than 76 ⅓ innings in any season over the past five years. Overall, he's thrown just 198 2/3 total innings since the start of 2016.
It should worry Red Sox’ fans that over the past decade Richards has made at least 30 starts just once, and at least 25 starts just twice. The optimist will say he's well-rested. In reality, he’ll be quite limited this season. It’s reasonable to wonder if he can he even reach 150 innings; I’m dubious. If he can stay healthy, Richards could be a nice pickup for Boston. But there are just so many ifs.
Righty Nick Pivetta, who made two starts for Boston late last season, has always been intriguing because of his power arm and pure stuff. The Red Sox are hoping they can finally harness it. However, it can’t be ignored that Pivetta has a 5.40 ERA over more than 400 innings in the majors. The whole sales pitch with this guy is "potential."
The Sox will rely heavily on Eovaldi, who has made at least 30 starts just once in nine seasons. The righty has been plagued by injuries throughout his career.
Then there's Martín Pérez, who has a 4.70 ERA and 1.48 WHIP after nine seasons, in which he's made at least 30 starts just twice. The lefty is nothing more than a fifth starter.
There are questions everywhere. Who can be relied on to make at least 30 starts and throw at least 150 innings for Boston?
Tanner Houck, who has made just three major league starts, is the primary Triple-A depth option. He will open the season with the big league club and start the second game of the season.
Finally, Chris Sale will return some time this summer, which will provide the rotation with an enormous boost. He may not be back to full strength right away, but even at 80%, Sale is still better than most MLB pitchers.
Rule-5 draft pickup Garrett Whitlock could be a nice surprise. The righty was terrific in Grapefruit League action, throwing nine innings and allowing one run on eight hits and no walks. Oh, and he fanned 12 along the way. It shouldn't come as much of a surprise; Whitlock has a 12-8 record and a 2.41 ERA in 42 Minor League appearances (38 starts). Whitlock was particularly impressive in 2018, notching a 1.86 ERA over 23 appearances for three affiliates. That's why the Sox snatched him from the Yankees.
Whitlock will start the season in the bullpen, but he provides a nice depth option for the rotation. The question is whether he can be stretched out to start, if needed, and if the Sox are even willing to lean on a rookie pitcher who is just returning from Tommy John surgery.
The Sox desperately need to take a big leap forward from the misery and disappointment of last season. The 2020 Red Sox ended with a .400 winning percentage, which was the fourth worst in baseball.
Despite their abysmal season, the Sox had the third-highest payroll in baseball last year. No, this ownership group has never been stingy.
Though some fans may think the Red Sox have been cheap this offseason or, at the least, are disappointed that the team didn't sign any high-dollar free agents, it's worth noting that Boston's $205 million payroll is the second-highest in baseball after the Dodgers ($256 million).
The reality is that the Sox spent nearly $45 million on half a dozen free agents and a couple of trade acquisitions this winter. Instead of signing one or two really expensive free agents, Chaim Bloom decided to strategically allocate available dollars to multiple players, many of whom are quite versatile and offer flexibility in the field or the bullpen.
Sale, who will make $30 million this season, is the club's most expensive player, by far. After that, Xander Bogaerts represents a relative bargain at $20 million. And JD Martinez will make $19.375 million this year, which will also be a bargain if he reverts to his usual highly-productive self.
There is some dead weight on the roster this year, much of which will come off the books at season's end.
The Sox will pay newly retired Dustin Pedroia $12 million this season and they will pay the Royals $2.8 million toward Andrew Benintendi's 2021 salary. Additionally, the Sox will pay the Dodgers $16 million for David Price this season and next.
Add it all up and the Sox will be paying nearly $31 million this year for those three players to suit up for other clubs or not play at all.
We can bemoan guaranteed contracts, but that's the nature of the sport. This isn't the NFL.
After the 2022 season concludes, the Red Sox will have a lot of money to spend in free agency, and many of their top prospects should be graduating onto the big league roster. Good days lie ahead for Boston.
What’s particularly striking is just how much change this roster has undergone in only a couple of years. Just nine players remain from the Red Sox 2018 World Series roster, which was unimaginable even after the 2019 season. Those nine are: Matt Barnes, Ryan Brasier, Nathan Eovaldi, Eduardo Rodriguez, Chris Sale, Christian Vazquez, Xander Bogaerts, Rafeal Devers and JD Martinez.
As for this season, many prognosticators seem to think that the Sox will be a .500 ball club. Vegas puts Boston's odds of winning the World Series at 50/1. Obviously, this team's hopes are almost entirely hinged to a starting rotation that has more questions than answers. They will go as far as the starting five (or six or seven or whatever) will take them.
Given their potent offense, I think the Sox are capable of 85 wins this season, which should be good enough for third place in the ever-challenging AL East.
Let's check back in October and see how it all panned out.
In the meantime, play ball!
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