Tuesday, November 28, 2017

Dwight Evans: One of the Most Underrated Players in Baseball History



In the pantheon of all-time great Red Sox hitters -- the likes of which includes Ted Williams, Carl Yastrzemski, Wade Boggs, Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz -- another Sox great is often overlooked.

That would be Dwight Evans. The long-time Boston right fielder was often overshadowed by his teammates and fellow outfielders, Jim Rice and Fred Lynn. However Evans was a fantastic player in his own right.

Who do you think had more career runs, doubles, walks, stolen bases and a higher on-base percentage — Rice or Evans? Remarkably, the answer is Evans.

No. 24, who played for the Sox from 1972-1990, also amassed just one less total bases, three fewer home runs and just six less hits than Rice, who is in the Hall of Fame.

Evans is often overlooked in the history of great Sox hitters. Yet, after a 20-year career, all but his last spent with the Red Sox, Evans left his mark with 2,446 hits, 483 doubles, 1,470 runs, 1,384 RBI, 385 home runs, a .272 career average, a .370 OBP and an .840 OPS.

Evans was an on-base machine, leading the league in OBP in 1982 (.402) and in walks three times (1981, 1985, 1987). In 1981, he had as many walks, 85, as he had strikeouts. Even more impressive, in three seasons Evans drew more walks than strikeouts (1985: 114 BB/105 Ks; 1987: 106 BB/98 Ks; 1989: 99 BB/84 Ks. Even in his final season, with Baltimore, Evans walked 54 times, while striking out just 54 times. Overall, Evans had three seasons in which he drew at least 100 free passes.

His offensive prowess led to two Silver Slugger Awards, in 1981 and 1987. In ’81, Evans led the league in walks, times on base, home runs, total bases, runs created and OPS.

Evans was a three time All-Star (1978, ’81, ’87), yet it’s surprising that he wasn’t selected more often, given that he had four top-10 finishes for the AL MVP Award (1981, 1982, 1987, 1988).

What may surprise many is that Evans hit more home runs than any other American League player during the 1980s (256) and the fourth most overall, behind only Mike Schmidt, Dale Murphy and Eddie Murray. Evans also led the AL in extra base hits during that span.

Evans, long known for his exceptional defense in Fenway’s challenging right field, won eight Gold Gloves (a Red Sox record). The only major league outfielders with more are Willie Mays, Roberto Clemente, Al Kaline and Ken Griffey, Jr. With the exception of 1977 and 1980, Evans won the Gold Glove Award every year from 1976 through 1985.

While Evans was a very solid offensive player, as his numbers attest, he was a gifted all around player, whose greatest asset may have been his defense. He had a phenomenal arm and made great catches seem routine. Evans quickly and accurately read balls right off the bat and had a great first step, which usually put him in position to make a play.

Some of his backers argue that Evans is worthy of induction into Cooperstown. Among them is famed statistician Bill James, who wrote, “Dwight Evans is one of the most underrated players in baseball history.” No matter your stance on that issue, Evans’ on field exploits seem to be forgotten, though they are surely worthy of greater merit. Evans lasted only three years on the Hall of Fame ballot, never getting more than 10.4 percent of the vote.

There were two seasons, in particular, that may have kept Evans out of the Hall.

In 1977, he battled a knee injury all year, spending a good portion of the season on the disabled list. We’re left to wonder what kind of offensive numbers me may have posted had he not been limited to 73 games due to the injury. It's a shame, since Evans hit better than he ever had, finishing with 14 home runs and a .287 average, which was a career high at the time. It's also likely that he would have won a second straight Gold Glove.

The other season that negatively affected Evans, through no fault of his own, was the strike-shortened 1981 season.

"Dewey" was having his best year in '81—he hit .296/.415/.522, played every game and led the league in homers, total bases, walks and OPS. And, naturally, he won another Gold Glove.

However, due to the strike, Evans played in just 108 games. Had he played a full season, he may have won the MVP award—which would have boosted his case. Instead, Rollie Fingers, a reliever, won the MVP, as well as the Cy Young Award. The MVP Award was highly controversial that year. Fingers edged out Rickey Henderson by 11 points, while Evans finished third. It was one of the closest MVP races in MLB history.

In essence, Evans' career-year, his masterpiece season, was shortened by a labor dispute. Through forces beyond his control, perhaps his greatest chance for MVP consideration was cut short.

Combining the ’77 and ’81 seasons, Evans missed a possible 143 games (89 and 54, respectively).

If Evans had hit just 15 more home runs — which he might have done in ’77 alone, given that he hit 14 in 73 games—he would have finished his career with 400 homers, which might have caught the voters’ attention. In addition, he would have certainly driven in a lot more than 16 additional runs—which would have raised his career total over 1,400. Evans would have also surpassed 500 doubles and 1,500 runs.

While none of those numbers, individually, are critical benchmarks for Hall of Fame consideration, in totality they would have made his resume look a lot more impressive.

Dewey was never a superstar, but he was an excellent player who was extraordinarily valuable to the Red Sox during his long career. Possessing a cannon-like arm that could reach home plate with pin-point accuracy and enough pop in his bat to swat at least 20 homers in 11 out of 12 seasons, including nine in a row, Dwight Evans is surely an all-time Red Sox great.

Indeed, the club validated that truth by selecting him to their Hall of Fame in 2000, an honor of which he was most deserving.

Tuesday, November 14, 2017

Bobby Doerr Was the Greatest Second Baseman in Red Sox History



Bobby Doerr, one the greatest players in Red Sox history, has died at age 99.

Doerr, whose No. 1 is one of only 11 numbers retired by the team, was the oldest living former major league player and the only Hall of Famer to reach age 99. The LA native was elected into the National Baseball Hall of Fame in 1986 and the Red Sox retired his number two years later.

Doerr often led AL second basemen in double plays, putouts and assists, and once went 414 games without an error -- a record at the time.

Doerr spent all 14 years of his playing career (1937-1951) with Boston and was forced into early retirement by a bad back.

The nine-time All Star, who is widely viewed as the best second baseman in Red Sox history, compiled a .288 lifetime batting average, 2,042 hits, 223 home runs and 1,247 RBI in his storied career. Doerr drove in at least 100 runs in six seasons, a feat that went unmatched by another second baseman for 25 years.

The only other Red Sox second baseman in the same company as Doerr is the incumbent, Dustin Pedroia.

Since Pedroia has only played 12 seasons, while Doerr played 14, it is only fair to compare their first 12 years. Doerr was 33 in his final season; Pedroia was 33 this past season.

Pedroia

1,503 Games, 6,743 PA, 820 Runs, 1,802 Hits, 394 2B, 15 3B, 140 HR, 2,646 TB, 724 RBI, 138 SB, 621 BB, 651 K, ,300/.366/.441/.807

Doerr

1,610 Games, 6,902 PA, 931 Runs, 1,754 Hits, 331 3B, 76 3B, 183 HR, 2,786 TB, 1,054 RBI, 49 SB, 685 BB, 533 K, .284/.358/.448/.806

As the numbers bear out, Doerr was the better run scorer and run producer. Of the 14 statistical categories above, Doerr bests Pedroia in eight. When it comes to runs, triples, homers, RBI and strikeouts, Doerr was superior.

However, when it comes to hits, doubles, stolen bases, batting average and on-base percentage, Pedroia is better.

It should be noted that Doerr’s lifetime batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage and OPS all rose after his final two seasons, and the latter two were better than Pedroia’s career averages. This clearly indicates that Doerr was not merely hanging on at the end of his career. Rather, he was still a highly productive player, who was forced into early retirement due to an ailing back.

Additionally, at age 27 — during the prime of his career and following a year in which he led the American League with a .528 slugging percentage — Doerr did not play in the major leagues due to his military service in World War II. That lost season would have significantly added to his career numbers.

Here’s a look at how often each player made the top-10 in various statistical categories:

Pedroia

Games Played: 3 seasons
At-Bats: 5 seasons
Plate Appearances: 5 seasons
Batting Average: 5 seasons
On-Base Percentage: 3 seasons
Runs Scored: 5 seasons
Hits: 5 seasons
Doubles: 5 seasons
Total Bases: 2 seasons
Runs Created: 2 seasons
Times on Base: 5 seasons

Doerr

Games Played: 3 seasons
At-Bats: 4 seasons
Plate Appearances: 2 seasons
Batting Average: 2 seasons
On-Base Percentage: 1 season
Slugging Percentage: 7 seasons
OPS: 5 seasons
Runs Scored: 3 seasons
Hits: 3 seasons
Doubles: 4 seasons
Triples: 6 seasons
Home Runs: 7 seasons
Extra-Base Hits: 9 seasons
Total Bases: 7 seasons
Runs Batted In: 8 seasons
Runs Created: 5 seasons
Times on Base: 1 season

Pedroia won the Rookie of the Year Award in 2007 and the MVP Award in 2008. However, that award was not established until 1940, three years after Doerr’s rookie campaign. That said, Doerr's rookie season was not a standout. Additionally, Doerr never won an MVP, but had one top-five and two top-10 finishes.

In 2008, Pedroia won the Silver Slugger Award, which is given annually to the best offensive player at each position in both leagues. However, the Silver Slugger was first awarded in 1980, three decades after Doerr retired.

Pedroia has also won four Gold Glove Awards (2008, 2011, 2013, 2014). However the Gold Glove wasn’t awarded until 1957, six years after Doerr retired.

Who knows how many of each of these awards Doerr would have won, but the likelihood is that there would have been many.

As long as Pedroia’s surgically repaired knee holds up, there is still time for him to continue writing his chapter in the Red Sox record book and to secure the title of “Best Second Baseman in Red Sox History.”

But at present, as the first 12 years of their respective careers make clear, that title still belongs to Bobby Doerr.

Monday, November 13, 2017

Red Sox May Seek Starting Pitching This Offseason



The conventional wisdom says the Red Sox will sign, or trade for, one or two sluggers this offseason to upgrade the team's offense. After all, the club finished last in the American League in home runs this season for the first time since 1930.

However, Boston could seek to stabilize, if not upgrade, its starting pitching this offseason. That’s because the health of some players (David Price, Steven Wright, Eduardo Rodriguez) remains uncertain and the contract status of a number of starters is short term.

Price and Pomeranz could both exit after next season, while Porcello and Sale could be gone after the 2019 season.

Here's a look at the contract status of the Boston rotation:

David Price LHP
7 years/$217M (2016-22)
Can opt out of contract after 2018 season

Rick Porcello RHP
4 years/$82.5M (2016-19)

Chris Sale LHP
5 years/$32.5M (2013-17), plus 2018-19 options

Drew Pomeranz LHP
1 year/$4.45M (2017)
Pomeranz is arbitration edible for the final time this offseason and will become a free agent after the 2018 season.

Steve Wright RHP
1 year/$0.5935M (2017)
Wright is arbitration eligible for the next three years and will become a free agent after the 2020 season.

Eduardo Rodriguez LHP
1 year/$0.5843M (2017)
Rodriguez is under team from control for the next four years and will become a free agent after the 2021 season.

To be clear, the Red Sox are not in a desperate situation right now. They’ve got their full rotation under team control for next season. It’s at this time next year, however, that things will get murky.

Yet, given the health concerns of Price, Rodriguez and Wright, Boston may seek some certainty/insurance for the upcoming season, as well as for the years ahead.

There aren’t a lot of top-level arms available on the market this offseason, but Jake Arrieta (age 31) and Yu Darvish (31) are regarded as the top two. Each of them will likely seek a contract in the range of five years and at least $100 million. That is likely beyond the cost Boston is considering.

Other free agent starters that will draw interest from the market include Lance Lynn (30) and Alex Cobb (30).

Arrieta, Lynn and Cobb all received and rejected qualifying offers, meaning a signing team will lose its second-round pick, as well as $500,000 from its international signing bonus pool.

Of course, Dave Dombrowski could also circumvent the free agent market and instead engage in a trade. However, the Red Sox have already drained many of their top-level prospects in recent trades for Sale, Pomeranz and Craig Kimbrel.

While it’s more likely that the Red Sox will sign free agent hitters such as JD Martinez and Carlos Santana this offseason, we cannot rule out the possibility that they will attempt to shore up the rotation for 2018 and beyond.

Sunday, November 12, 2017

Pete Rose's Hit Record Will Endure as Will His Awful Legacy



Baseball has many hallowed records, many of which have stood for generations. That's what makes some of the game's greats seem like immortals.

Some records are thought to be unbreakable, making them almost sacred, such as Ted Williams .406 batting average in 1946 or Joe DiMaggio's 56-game hitting streak that same year.

Another such record is Pete Rose's career hits record. Rose notched a whopping 4, 256 hits in his 24-year major league career. Considering that only four other players have topped 3,500 hits and that the leading active player is Ichiro Suzuki, who has 3,080 hits, it's safe to say that Rose's remarkable record may remain unmatched.

To break Rose's record, a player would have to average 200 hits a year for 21 years. To do so, that player would not only need to remain elite into his 40s, he would also need to remain healthy and injury free. Additionally, he would need to maintain tremendous motivation, the kind that doesn’t fade after 15 or so years and perhaps $100 million in career earnings — the kind of money that would allow someone to live the rest of his life on an island, sipping pina coladas, long before reaching age 40.

For perspective, Ichiro Suzuki amassed 200 hits in 10 straight seasons. However, over his last seven seasons, he has averaged just 119 hits.

At age 38, Rose played in 163 games, notching 208 hits. At age 39 he played 162 games. At age 41, Rose played in 162 games and at age 42, he played 151 games. It's hard to imagine that happening again, most especially in the National League.

Rose was an All Star and finished in the top-10 in the MVP balloting at age 40. He was again an All Star at age 41. Rose batted .286 at age 43 (Ichiro batted .255 this season, at age 43) and posted a .395 on-base percentage at age 44. Rose didn’t merely have longevity; he had sustained greatness.

In an era of pronounced strikeouts, quite remarkably, 25 players struck out at least 150 times this season, led by the Yankees’ Aaron Judge, who fanned a whopping 208 times. Also notable is that 136 players struck out at least 100 times.

However, over his last 16 seasons, Rose never struck out more than 54 times in a season. That now seems other worldly.

What complicates or even tarnishes Rose’s legacy, of course, is the fact that he bet on baseball, while managing the Cincinnati Reds.

In August, 1984, the Expos traded Rose back to the Reds, who immediately named him player-manager. He remained in that role, until he retired as a player after the 1986 season. However, Rose remained manager of the Reds until August 24, 1989.

At the start of the 1989 season, a Sports Illustrated cover story detailed allegations that Rose had placed bets on baseball games.

Subsequently, and at the request of MLB, lawyer John Dowd investigated charges that Rose bet on baseball, while managing the Reds. Dowd interviewed numerous Rose associates, including bookies and bet runners, and delivered a summary of his findings to Commissioner Bart Giamatti in May, 1989.

Dowd documented Rose's alleged gambling activities in 1985 and 1986 and compiled a day-by-day account of Rose's alleged betting on baseball games in 1987. The report showed that Rose bet on 52 Reds games in 1987, wagering a minimum of $10,000 a day.

Consequently, Rose voluntarily accepted a permanent ban from baseball on August 24, 1989, recognizing that there was factual evidence supporting his ban.

Despite this, Rose vehemently and publicly denied the allegations for 15 years, until finally admitting them in his autobiography My Prison Without Bars, which was published in January, 2004.

Though the Dowd Report says, "no evidence was discovered that Rose bet against the Reds," Dowd stated in a December 2002 interview that he believed Rose probably bet against the Reds while managing them.

Yet, there were still more events that further sullied Rose's name and reputation.

On April 20, 1990, Rose pleaded guilty to two charges of filing false income tax returns that failed to show income he received from selling autographs and memorabilia, as well as from horse racing winnings. He was sentenced to five months in a medium-security prison.

Then, just this summer, Rose faced allegations that he had consensual sex with a 14 or 15-year-old girl in the 1970s, while he was in his 30s and married, with children. The woman, now in her late 50s, verified the accusation in a sworn statement. The age of consent in Ohio, where Rose lived while playing for the Reds at the time, is 16. Rose admitted the sexual relationship, but said he thought the girl was 16 at the time, as if that somehow absolved him.

In 2010, Deadspin reported Rose used corked bats during his 1985 pursuit of Ty Cobb's all-time hits record. Two sports memorabilia collectors who owned Rose's game-used bats from that season had the bats x-rayed and found the telltale signs of corking. Rose had previously denied using corked bats.

Until that point, Rose's greatness as a player and his accomplishments on the field were indisputable. Since then, a shadow has been cast over his playing career.

What remains indisputable is that Pete Rose has been revealed as a man who is entirely lacking in ethics, principles and morals.

Rose's clear lack of character have forced him to live, and eventually die, in infamy, even though his hits record will endure through history.

Thursday, November 02, 2017

First Base Instability May Compel Red Sox to Sign Eric Hosmer



Free agency officially began this morning and the Red Sox may soon make a very expensive contract offer to free agent first baseman Eric Hosmer. But it wasn’t supposed to be this way.

Boston had big plans for minor leaguer Sam Travis, seeing him as their homegrown first baseman of the future. Mitch Moreland was simply supposed to be a one-year stop gap because Dave Dombrowski didn’t want to block Travis in the long term.

However, Travis disappointed this year, slugging just .342 in the majors and .375 at the Triple-A level. The 24-year-old was known for his bat and was expected to develop into a power hitter at the major league level. Yet, Travis struggled at Pawtucket this season, hitting .270 with just six homers and 24 RBIs in 304 at-bats.

Travis spent much of last offseason rehabbing from knee surgery, which may have contributed to his struggles. That said, the Red Sox are likely done waiting for him to develop into an everyday first baseman. The club will give him a shot in left field in the Dominican League, which could improve his prospect stock headed into next season.

Moreland, meanwhile, hit 22 homers and 34 doubles, while providing solid defense at first. However, the 32-year-old batted just .246 and was slowed in the second half by a broken toe and a bad knee. Moreland, who has a career .252 batting average and .317 OBP, is now a free agent. It’s likely that 2017 was his lone season in Boston.

Red Sox first basemen combined to hit a mediocre .248/.326/.430 in 2017. A major upgrade is very much needed and is almost certainly coming.

The struggles of Travis and Moreland illustrate why the Red Sox may get involved in the bidding for Hosmer, who slashed 318/.385/.498/.882, with 31 doubles, 25 homers and 94 RBI this season.

In seven seasons, the 28-year-old has a number of American League top-10 finishes: three times for batting, three times for hits, two times for runs scored and twice for on-base.

There aren’t many All Stars who are 3-time Gold Glove winners that reach free agency at age 28. Hosmer also played a prominent role on a World Series winner. That’s why he will likely get at least a six-year contract offer.

The Royals will reportedly make every effort to retain him and they will have write an awfully big check to do so. Yet, they will undoubtedly have plenty of competition for Hosmer's services.

Sam Mellinger of the Kansas City Star reports that one National League executive believes agent Scott Boras will attempt to get Hosmer an eight-year, $200 million deal.

Will the Red Sox go all in? They have a long track record of getting the player they want, as long as the cost doesn’t go above the value they place on the player.

Boston is an appealing place for many players. This is a team that is continually competitive (they've just won back-to-back AL East crowns), has a great young core and the financial resources to put a very good team on the field year after year.

The Boston Globe’s Nick Cafardo recently reported that players view the Red Sox organization as first-class and find it hard to leave. The players say they are treated very well and love the amenities afforded to them and their families. That reputation is known among players across MLB and it may work in the Red Sox favor this offseason.

One major complication, however, is the fact that the Red Sox are just $9 million under the luxury threshold. Teams that go over the mark have to pay a tax and, with the new labor deal, teams over the luxury tax threshold face worse draft pick compensation rules if they sign or lose certain free agents.

The tax threshold is $195 million under the new labor contract and rates are set at three levels: 20 percent for first-time payers, 30 percent for those owing for a second straight season and 50 percent for clubs paying three times in a row or more.

Hosmer could very well end up with the Red Sox, but it will surely be costly.