Friday, May 25, 2018

Hanley Ramirez Was DFA'd Because He Never Lived up to His Contract



At first glance, the designation of Hanley Ramirez by the Red Sox seemed surprising. After all, he is under contract for $22 million this season and had belted 23 homers last year and 30 in 2016.

However, upon further review, Ramirez simply wasn’t living up to his contract or giving the Red Sox consistent production from the N0. 3 spot in the lineup.

The 34-year-old slashed .254/.313/.395, with six home runs and 29 RBI, in 44 games for the Red Sox this year. Boston has played 50 games so far and had given him significant playing time and plenty of opportunities. That’s just not enough production to warrant $22 million.

Yet, there were additional financial considerations for next season as well.

Ramirez’s four-year, $88 million contract (2015-2018) has a fifth-year option that automatically vests if he amasses 1,050 total plate appearances in 2017-2018. Hanley only needed 497 PAs this season for the Red Sox to be on the hook for $22 million in 2019. Ramirez had already compiled 195 plate appearances this season and was well on his way to 497.

Hanley was signed as a free agent to be an offensive spark and a run producer. However, he had mixed results in Boston over parts of four seasons.

2015: 105 games, .249 AVG/.291 OBP/.426 SLG/.717 OPS, 19 HR, 53 RBI, 12 2B, 59 runs
2016: 147 games, .286 AVG/.361 OBP/.505 SLG/.866 OPS, 30 HR, 111 RBI, 28 2B, 81 runs
2017: 133 games, .242 AVG/.320 OBP/.429 SLG/.750 OPS, 23 HR, 62 RBI, 24 2B, 58 runs
2018: 44 games, .254 AVG/.313 OBP/.395 SLG/.708 OPS, 6 HR, 29 RBI, 7 2B, 25 runs

As you can see, the only year in which Ramirez gave the Red Sox what they were expecting, and what they were paying for, was 2016. Last year, Ramirez, a former batting crown winner, posted his lowest batting average ever.

Hanley had surgery on his left shoulder in October and the Red Sox hoped it would help him rediscover the swing that had made him one of the game's premier hitters earlier in his career. That hope never materialized.

Consider what the Red Sox are getting from JD Martinez, at a similar cost:

48 games, .328 AVG/.383 OBP/.645 SLG/1.029 OPS, 15 HR, 41 RBI, 12 2B, 32 runs

Martinez is making $23.75 million this season and next. If there’s a such thing as “earning” $23 million in baseball, Martinez is doing it.

Ramirez certainly isn't earning $22 million this season and there was no way the Red Sox were willing to pay him the same amount again next season at age 35.

Clearly, Ramirez doesn’t come close to Martinez's value and the only way to rectify that was to cut bait now.

This move will make Gold Glove winner Mitch Moreland the full-time first baseman and give him regular at-bats. That's a good thing. The left-handed slugger is slashing a remarkable .311/.390/.612/1.001 this season. That's the second-best OBP, third-best batting average (min. 100 at-bats) and third-best slugging percentage on the team.

In short, Moreland needs to play everyday and this roster was already jammed.

That’s what this DFA is all about. The Red Sox had to make room for Dustin Pedroia and Ramirez was the odd man out. Given his outsized cost and limited production, Hanley did nothing to prevent that.

Ramirez should never have been expected to be a middle-of-the-order presence because he was never that type of hitter. This failed experiment can be laid at the feet of former Boston GM Ben Cherington.

In the end, the Red Sox are still haunted by Cherington's horrible legacy, which includes Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval, both of whom the Red Sox are paying or will pay to play for other teams.

That's nothing short of disastrous.

Friday, May 18, 2018

While Many Pitching Hallmarks are in Decline, Strikeouts are Rising



With five-man rotations, seven-man bullpens and strict 100-pitch limits, many observers have lamented that pitching has forever changed.

Just 40 big-league pitchers made as many at 30 starts last season. Consider that there are 30 major league teams, each of which has a five-man rotation, and that adds up to 150 starters league wide. This means just 27 percent of major league pitchers made at least 30 starts last year. Yet, most teams use additional starters during the season due to injury or ineffectiveness, so there were even more than 150 starters in 2017.

More alarmingly, just 15 pitchers threw at least 200 innings across the majors last year.

Complete games are largely a thing of the past. Last season, Cleveland’s Corey Kluber and and Minnesota’s Ervin Santana led the majors with five complete games apiece — five.

Many observers have concluded that we may never again see another 300-game winner. For perspective, 45-year-old Bartolo Colon, now in his 21st season, leads all active pitchers with 242 wins. He doesn’t have a snowball’s chance in hell of reaching 300. CC Sabaathia, at age 37 and in his 18h season, is second at 239. He, too, will fall short of 300. Lastly, Justin Verlander, at age 35 and in his 14th season, has 193 wins, which is presently third most. It's unlikely that he will reach the mark either.

While those pitchers have all amassed commendable totals, in past decades they likely wouldn’t have merited Hall of Fame consideration since they’re all well below the much vaunted 300-win plateau.

That said, wins are an absurd measure of a pitcher’s merit and, thankfully, modern statistical analysis recognizes this.

However, most of the game’s current pitchers are unable to measure up to other traditional hallmarks of a pitcher’s quality — such as innings pitched, which not only indicate durability but also effectiveness.

If a pitcher is able to compile 200 innings a year for 15 seasons — which seems like the stuff of fiction today — he would amass 3,000 career innings. There are 54 pitchers in the Hall of Fame who threw at least 3,000 innings and a total of 136 in MLB history have reached the mark. Moreover, there are 30 pitchers in Cooperstown who threw at least 4,000 innings and a total of 40 pitchers have reached that plateau.

However, one traditional measure of a pitcher’s greatness, strikeouts, is actually on the rise.

Major League batters compiled 6,656 strikeouts compared with 6,360 hits in April, according to the Elias Sports Bureau. That had never happened in any calendar month in the history of baseball. It is the continuation of an ongoing trend.

Last year, batters struck out in 21.6 percent of their plate appearances, a major league record. This season, it has risen to 22.6 percent, which, if sustained, would be the 11th straight year in which the strikeout rate has increased.

Strikeouts have become an epidemic; they plague today’s game. Too many batters swing for the fences in every at -bat and can’t even make contact anymore. A new strikeout-rate record has been set each season since 2008.

A total of 16 major league pitchers posted at least 200 strikeouts last season and four more notched at least 194. Remember, just 15 pitchers threw at least 200 innings. This year, at the quarter mark of the 2018 season, 38 pitchers have at last 50 Ks, which puts them on pace for 200. Not all will get there, but the trend is clear.

Ten active pitchers have at least 2,000 career strikeouts and most of them have a clear shot at 3,000. Here’s where they rank, followed by how many seasons they have played and their age:

1. CC Sabathia (18, 37) 2,874 L
2. Justin Verlander (14, 35) 2,500 R
3. Bartolo Colon (21, 45) 2,486 R
4. Felix Hernandez (14, 32) 2,387 R
5. Zack Greinke (15, 34) 2,294 R
6. Cole Hamels (13, 34) 2,284 L
7. Max Scherzer (11, 33) 2,240 R
8. Clayton Kershaw (11, 30) 2,168 L
9. James Shields (13, 36) 2,116 R
10. Jon Lester (13, 34) 2,077 L

A decade or so from now, a whole new batch of today’s hurlers will have joined the 3,000K club. It’s fairly easy to predict.

Pitchers are overwhelming hitters, who seem content with striking out in a way that would have been embarrassing to past generations of hitters. Batters are no longer satisfied with hitting singles, sacrificing and moving up baserunners. Now, it’s all or nothing — home runs or bust. These days, it’s all about launch angle.

Consequently, batting averages have dropped from .269 in 2006 (the first year of strict PED testing) to .246 heading into Friday night’s games. That would be the lowest in a season since 1972.

A long as hitters (and organizations) emphasize home runs at the exclusion of everything else, and as long as pitchers continue to consistently throw in the mid to upper-90s, this soaring strikeout trend will continue.

Consequently, the 3,000-strikeout club will also continue to grow. Unlike some other pitching categories — such as starts, innings and complete games — strikeouts are surging.

Someday, when we look back on this era, it will likely be remembered for some of the greatest punch out artists in history. However, those pitchers will also be plagued by historic home-runs-allowed totals.

Such is the state of today’s game.

Tuesday, May 15, 2018

It's Time to Let Blake Swihart Play



When it comes to the catching position, defense usually trump’s offense. Pitch calling, pitch framing and the comfort level of pitchers matter a lot. Additionally, blocking and throwing skills are highly valued. That’s why the offensively challenged Christian Vazquez and Sandy Leon keep getting run out there by Alex Cora, day after day.

Meanwhile, Blake Swihart has caught a single inning this season.

But how impactful have Vazquez and Leon been this year?

Chris Sale has a 2.17 ERA and a 0.90 WHIP. However, that’s because he is Chris Sale, not because of the catcher he is throwing to.

Rick Porcello has a 3.28 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP. Maybe it could be argued that Vazquez and Leon are helping him be that good. Then again, they both caught Porcello last season, when he was awful (4.65 ERA, 1.40 WHIP).

On the other hand, all of the other Red Sox starters are struggling.

- Eduardo Rodriguez has a 4.58 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP.
- David Price has a 4.89 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP.
- Drew Pomeranz has a 5.47 ERA and a 1.56 WHIP.

Are we to believe that Vazquez and Leon's game calling and defensive skills are aiding those pitchers or making any sort of meaningful difference?

I, for one, don't buy it.

Yet, Alex Cora insists those are the reasons that Vazquez and Leon must press on as starters, while Swihart continues to languish on the bench.

Then there’s the matter of the anemic offense the Red Sox are getting from their backstops. Boston's catchers have a major league-worst .224 slugging percentage and a .178 batting average, which is the third worst in the majors.

Vazquez is slashing .179/.230/.217 (yes, his on base is actually higher than his slugging), with 0 homers, 5 RBI and just 4 doubles.

Leon is slashing .170/.220/.234, with 1 homer, 5 RBI and 0 doubles. Yes, he has exactly 1 extra-base hit this season.

Swihart, one of the most physically gifted players on the Red Sox roster, has long been touted for his offense. He played shortstop in high school, but the Red Sox converted him into a catcher because of his athleticism and strong throwing arm.

Yet, he can’t find playing time right now. The 26-year-old has played in only 15 of the Red Sox’ 41 games this season and has just 29 at bats.

The Red Sox will have to make a roster move when Dustin Pedroia returns in the next couple of weeks. Either Eduardo Nunez, Brock Holt or Swihart will have to go; the club will be unable to keep all of them as reserves. Swihart seems like the obvious choice, but that would leave Boston without a solid backup if Vazquez or Leon ends up on the DL.

Swihart is out of options and can’t be sent to the minors without first passing through waivers. Another club would surely claim the 2011 first round draft pick (No. 26), which is why Boston has been hanging onto him and stashing him on the bench.

Yet, something has to give.

The Red Sox have kept Swihart on the roster because they don’t have any viable alternatives within the organization, if Vazquez or Leon sustain an injury. However, Swihart needs at bats and he is withering while waiting to play. Over his mere 29 at-bats this season, Swihart is slashing .138/.219/.172. He has too much potential to be wasting on Boston’s bench.

Swihart played first base, third base, catcher and left field during spring training. This season he has appeared, quite limitedly, at first base, left field and designated hitter.

The Red Sox have everything to gain and little to lose by playing Swihart at catcher. To this point, Vazquez and Leon have given them little to nothing.

It’s time to let Swihart play.