With five-man rotations, seven-man bullpens and strict 100-pitch limits, many observers have lamented that pitching has forever changed.
Just 40 big-league pitchers made as many at 30 starts last season. Consider that there are 30 major league teams, each of which has a five-man rotation, and that adds up to 150 starters league wide. This means just 27 percent of major league pitchers made at least 30 starts last year. Yet, most teams use additional starters during the season due to injury or ineffectiveness, so there were even more than 150 starters in 2017.
More alarmingly, just 15 pitchers threw at least 200 innings across the majors last year.
Complete games are largely a thing of the past. Last season, Cleveland’s Corey Kluber and and Minnesota’s Ervin Santana led the majors with five complete games apiece — five.
Many observers have concluded that we may never again see another 300-game winner. For perspective, 45-year-old Bartolo Colon, now in his 21st season, leads all active pitchers with 242 wins. He doesn’t have a snowball’s chance in hell of reaching 300. CC Sabaathia, at age 37 and in his 18h season, is second at 239. He, too, will fall short of 300. Lastly, Justin Verlander, at age 35 and in his 14th season, has 193 wins, which is presently third most. It's unlikely that he will reach the mark either.
While those pitchers have all amassed commendable totals, in past decades they likely wouldn’t have merited Hall of Fame consideration since they’re all well below the much vaunted 300-win plateau.
That said, wins are an absurd measure of a pitcher’s merit and, thankfully, modern statistical analysis recognizes this.
However, most of the game’s current pitchers are unable to measure up to other traditional hallmarks of a pitcher’s quality — such as innings pitched, which not only indicate durability but also effectiveness.
If a pitcher is able to compile 200 innings a year for 15 seasons — which seems like the stuff of fiction today — he would amass 3,000 career innings. There are 54 pitchers in the Hall of Fame who threw at least 3,000 innings and a total of 136 in MLB history have reached the mark. Moreover, there are 30 pitchers in Cooperstown who threw at least 4,000 innings and a total of 40 pitchers have reached that plateau.
However, one traditional measure of a pitcher’s greatness, strikeouts, is actually on the rise.
Major League batters compiled 6,656 strikeouts compared with 6,360 hits in April, according to the Elias Sports Bureau. That had never happened in any calendar month in the history of baseball. It is the continuation of an ongoing trend.
Last year, batters struck out in 21.6 percent of their plate appearances, a major league record. This season, it has risen to 22.6 percent, which, if sustained, would be the 11th straight year in which the strikeout rate has increased.
Strikeouts have become an epidemic; they plague today’s game. Too many batters swing for the fences in every at -bat and can’t even make contact anymore. A new strikeout-rate record has been set each season since 2008.
A total of 16 major league pitchers posted at least 200 strikeouts last season and four more notched at least 194. Remember, just 15 pitchers threw at least 200 innings. This year, at the quarter mark of the 2018 season, 38 pitchers have at last 50 Ks, which puts them on pace for 200. Not all will get there, but the trend is clear.
Ten active pitchers have at least 2,000 career strikeouts and most of them have a clear shot at 3,000. Here’s where they rank, followed by how many seasons they have played and their age:
1. CC Sabathia (18, 37) 2,874 L
2. Justin Verlander (14, 35) 2,500 R
3. Bartolo Colon (21, 45) 2,486 R
4. Felix Hernandez (14, 32) 2,387 R
5. Zack Greinke (15, 34) 2,294 R
6. Cole Hamels (13, 34) 2,284 L
7. Max Scherzer (11, 33) 2,240 R
8. Clayton Kershaw (11, 30) 2,168 L
9. James Shields (13, 36) 2,116 R
10. Jon Lester (13, 34) 2,077 L
A decade or so from now, a whole new batch of today’s hurlers will have joined the 3,000K club. It’s fairly easy to predict.
Pitchers are overwhelming hitters, who seem content with striking out in a way that would have been embarrassing to past generations of hitters. Batters are no longer satisfied with hitting singles, sacrificing and moving up baserunners. Now, it’s all or nothing — home runs or bust. These days, it’s all about launch angle.
Consequently, batting averages have dropped from .269 in 2006 (the first year of strict PED testing) to .246 heading into Friday night’s games. That would be the lowest in a season since 1972.
A long as hitters (and organizations) emphasize home runs at the exclusion of everything else, and as long as pitchers continue to consistently throw in the mid to upper-90s, this soaring strikeout trend will continue.
Consequently, the 3,000-strikeout club will also continue to grow. Unlike some other pitching categories — such as starts, innings and complete games — strikeouts are surging.
Someday, when we look back on this era, it will likely be remembered for some of the greatest punch out artists in history. However, those pitchers will also be plagued by historic home-runs-allowed totals.
Such is the state of today’s game.
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