Eduardo Rodriquez has one more year of arbitration-eligibility remaining before becoming a free agent after the 2021 season, at which time he will be just 28 years old.
If the lefty produces another season like 2019 (19-6, 3.81 ERA, 203 1/3 innings), he will be viewed as, perhaps, the top free-agent pitcher in the 2021 class.
Yet, Rodriguez has continually expressed his happiness in Boston, as well as his desire to remain with the Red Sox.
"I love it here and I want to stay here for a long time. If they want me to, I’ll stay here," E-Rod said after the 2019 season.
Yet, the Red Sox, at that point, still hadn't spoken to him about an extension. "I haven’t had that conversation yet, so I don’t know how that feels,” Rodriguez went on to say.
That still hasn't changed. So, what gives?
The Red Sox, like all other MLB teams, are dealing with the uncertainty brought about by the pandemic. Games without fans dramatically lowered revenues league-wide. MLB estimates that 40% of its overall revenue is tied directly to the presence of fans at live games.
Complicating baseball's revenue troubles even further, television ratings also suffered this season; both the Championship Series and the World Series saw a roughly 30% drop in viewership from the previous season.
The Red Sox' television ratings declined more this year than any other Major League Baseball team. According to a recent report from Forbes, Red Sox ratings on NESN were down 58% from 2019. That was significantly worse than the Los Angeles Angels, who saw the second-biggest drop at 40%.
Then there is the matter of Rodriguez's health and what his long-term prognosis looks like. The lefty contracted the coronavirus last summer and was devastated by the disease. He said it made him "feel 100 years old." However, he was recently cleared to begin his offseason throwing program and said he would begin strength-training this week.
Will he regain full strength? Rodriguez sure thinks so, telling MLB Network this week, "I will be 100 percent ready for next season.”
MLB Trade Rumors projects that Rodriguez will get $8.3 million through the arbitration process for the 2021 season, which will be his last year of eligibility.
Given his relative youth, Rodriguez would likely garner an open-market contract next winter in the range of at least five years at $15-$17 million per season, assuming that he performs well in 2021. If the Red Sox made him such an offer, Rodriguez would likely sign without a second thought.
The Red Sox rotation remains desperately thin at present. Chris Sale won't return until mid-season. Nathan Eovaldi is continually injured, having made as many as 30 starts just once in nine seasons. Martin Perez’s option was not picked up, making him a free agent. Tanner Houck has just three major-league starts under his belt. And Nick Pivetta has a 5.40 ERA after 94 career games, meaning he can viewed as nothing more than a reclamation project, despite his great potential.
In short, the Red Sox need Eduardo Rodriquez to be healthy and effective next year and beyond.
That’s something Chaim Bloom is surely considering right now, along with potential trades, non-tender pick ups, and free agents.
If the Red Sox have any desire or intention to spend this offseason, they surely have the payroll space to do so. Boston has a little under $161 million on the books for 2021, well shy of $210 million luxury tax threshold.
Let’s hope they spend wisely. Rodriguez would be a good place to start.
