Papelbon Makes Red Sox History

In just his fourth season as the Red Sox closer, Jonathan Papelbon has already made a place for himself in the Sox’ record book.

With his 20th save in 22 chances Wednesday, Papelbon became the club’s all-time saves leader with #133.

Starting in 2006, when he recorded 35 saves (the third highest total ever for a rookie closer) Papelbon has steam-rolled past his predecessors, continually moving up the team's all-time saves list.

Papelbon is the first Boston closer to ever have two 30-save seasons, and he did it in back-to-back years. Naturally, he is also the first Red Sox closer to have three 30-save seasons. And he is more than two-thirds of the way there again this year before reaching the All Star break.

Papelbon got his 100th save last season, and it was only a matter of staying healthy before he surpassed the club’s previous saves leader, Bob “The Steamer” Stanley.

Stanley amassed 132 career saves over 13 seasons with the Sox, and held the team record for 20 years since retiring in 1989.

Stanley was a product of another era, and frequently threw long relief and had numerous two and three-inning saves. In fact, Stanley appeared in a club record 637 games, a mind-boggling number when you consider that the next closest Sox pitcher is Tim Wakefield, who has appeared in 519 games in his 15-year tenure with the Sox.

Yes, the save wasn’t even a recognized stat until 1969, so for more than 60 years of franchise history no one cared about or recorded such information.

But in the modern game, in which pitchers operate under fairly strict 100-pitch counts that are usually reached within six innings, the closer has become a much more important position.

Possessing a fastball that has been clocked at 99 miles per hour, plus a nasty split and changeup, Papelbon has been among the game's premier closers since first debuting in the role.

And now, without a doubt, he is the best closer that Red Sox fans have ever seen in a Boston uniform.

Last season, Papelbon leap-frogged past Derek Lowe, Jeff Reardon, Ellis Kinder, and Dick Radatz, in succession. Next up was Stanley, and Papelbon now stands alone in the Sox’ record book as the club’s all-time saves king.

It’s an impressive feat, considering that it was achieved in only four seasons as a closer.

Papelbon is at the top of his game. He possesses a strong will to compete and to win, and he’s got the confidence to match. It can be seen each time he takes the mound.

A fierce competitor with a bulldog mentality, the young righty is absolutely dominating and often overwhelms opposing batters. For most, just making contact probably feels like an accomplishment. Papelbon is averaging more than a strike per inning in his career, and more impressively has a K/BB ratio of 4.3 to 1.

The 28-year-old is one of five Red Sox closers have notched at least 40 saves in a season; Reardon, Ugueth Urbina, Lowe, and Tom Gordon - who had a club-record 46 saves in 1998 - are the others.

Papelbon could potentially break that record by season's end, and if not this year, it’s a good bet that it’s just a matter of time.

It would be quite fitting.

The young phenom is both respected and feared throughout baseball, and every team would rather have him than face him.

The numbers just keep piling up, and with each additional save Papelbon continues to stake his place in the Red Sox' storied history.

Copyright © 2009 Sean M. Kennedy. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the author’s consent.

Tim Wakefield in Striking Distance of Red Sox Records

With 382 career starts for the Red Sox, Tim Wakefield now needs just one more to pass Roger Clemens for the most in club history. And the knuckleballer is just five wins from matching Clemens' Fenway Park record of 95.

Clemens, long the team leader in so many pitching categories, has slowly – and surprisingly – been encroached upon by his former teammate.

If he plays one more season -- which seems likely at this point -- Wakefield will pass Clemens in innings pitched, becoming the club's new all-time leader in that category, as well. As it stands, Wakefield needs just 100 more innings to match Clemens.

Throughout his 15 seasons with the Red Sox, Wakefield has certainly established himself as an innings eater, pitching at least 200 innings in five seasons and 195 in another.

And Wakefield is just the second pitcher in Red Sox history to record at least 1800 career strikeouts.

Cy Young never reached 1700 strike outs in his legendary career with the Sox, nor did Pedro Martinez, Luis Tiant, or Smokey Joe Wood. In fact, the only other Sox pitcher to reach the milestone was Clemens, who fanned 2590 batters while with the Sox. It appears that Clemens' mark will be safe for years to come.

However, over the past couple of seasons, Wakefield has passed Clemens in a few areas he'd rather not have. It's part of the mixed bag that you get with Tim Wakefield. You take the bad with the good.

For instance, by rather wide margins, Wakefield is the club's all-time leader in a variety of less than desirable categories: 148 losses; 2571 hits allowed; 351 home runs allowed; 998 walks; and 1287 earned runs.

Much of that is the by-product of his longevity; if you stick around long enough the numbers pile up – for better and for worse. The reality is, Wakefield's place in the team's record book is more a testament to endurance than to greatness.

But attaining double-digit wins in 11 different seasons is quite an accomplishment, and Wakefield should be praised and congratulated for all he's done for the Red Sox through the years.

Incredibly, what was once deemed unimaginable now seems probable; having totaled 174 career victories with the Red Sox, Wakefield has a reasonable shot of surpassing Young and Clemens, who are tied with 192 wins apiece. He'll have to pitch at least another season to do so, but for a knuckleballer it's clearly doable.

As one of only three AL pitchers with 10 wins, Wakefield is having a career year and could well reach 20 wins before the season is over.

Just imagine the interest, the press, and the fanfare should Wakefield surpass Clemens and Young next season. The organization would just love and celebrate it.

We may hold our collective breath whenever he starts, or when one of his knucklers flutters away from the catcher and toward the backstop. But we should appreciate what's left of Wakefield's rollercoaster-like ride with the Sox. Soon to be 43, and on a revolving, year-to-year contract, this won't go on much longer.

Enjoy it for what it's worth. Statistically speaking, we're watching one of the Red Sox all-time greats. And there's no doubt that we're also watching one of the finest, most gracious men to have ever worn the Red Sox uniform.

You won't find an athlete who does more for his community, or who gets more praise from his teammates, than Tim Wakefield. Red Sox Nation should give him thanks for all he's done, both on and off the field.

And when he passes Clemens during his next start this week, he should be rightfully congratulated for such an impressive accomplishment.

Copyright © 2009 Sean M. Kennedy. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the author’s consent.

Matsuzaka's Meltdown Continues; Placed on DL

Daisuke Matsuzaka's season-long struggles continued Friday night.

In yet another dismal performance, Matsuzaka lasted just four innings, unable to record a single out in the fifth. After allowing consecutive doubles, he was mercifully removed from the game. In just four-plus innings, Matsuzaka gave up six runs on eight hits, and walked four; that's a total of 10 base runners, if you weren't keeping track.

Due to the rough outing, Matsuzaka has finally pitched himself out of the starting rotation.

Matsuzaka's ERA has now ballooned to 8.23 and he has zero quality starts in eight tries. He has yet to last more than 5 2/3 innings in any appearance this season. Now a woeful 1-5, Matsuzaka has yielded fewer than four runs in only two of his eight starts.

As Matsuzaka acknowledged after his latest loss, “If I keep going like this, I have no right to be part of this rotation.’’

That's the most accuracy he's had this season.

Manager Terry Francona apparently agreed, announcing that Matsuzaka is on the 15-day DL, and that there is no timetable for his return. Medical tests and an MRI have been conducted and the diagnosis has rather opaquely been described as a right shoulder strain. Perhaps this is the cause of his ineptitude, perhaps it's simply a smokescreen.

This season, Matsuzaka simply hasn't thrown strikes with any consistency and has no command of his fastball, which he himself acknowledged.

“I couldn’t get strikes with either my fastball or my breaking balls, and I had a hard time hitting my locations with any of my pitches," said Matsuzaka through his interpreter after the game.

The Japanese righty now admits that his troubles may be attributable to pitching in the World Baseball Classic for his native country.

Whatever the source of the problem is, Matsuzaka looks completely confused and lacking in confidence each time he takes the mound.

When the Red Sox invested more than $103 million to obtain Matsuzaka three years ago, they were sure they were getting an ace. Matsuzaka looks like anything but that this season.

In 2007, his first year in the Majors, Matsuzaka went 15-12 with a 4.40 ERA. While the win total was impressive, the number of losses was less than desirable, as was the ERA. But a period of adjustment was expected and it was anticipated that Matsuzaka would get better with more experience against big league hitters.

And last year, at least on the face of it, that seemed to happen. Matsuzaka posted a remarkable 18-3 record to go along with an equally remarkable 2.90 ERA.

Yet there were reasons for genuine concern. Matsuzaka's innings per start dropped from 6.4 in 2007 to just 5.8 in 2008. The shortened appearances were a product of high pitch counts and a lack of command that led to 94 walks, fourth highest in the Majors.

The striking reality lurking underneath the flashy 18 wins was that they were achieved in the fewest innings ever thrown by any pitcher to have at least 18 wins. Ever. In the history of baseball.

Great things were expected again this year. Yet, there were concerns about what pitching in the WBC, with so little preparation, would do to Matsuzaka's arm and his season. Perhaps we now know.

So far this season, Matsuzaka has been impotent. It's simply painful to watch him pitch, and you can't help but feel bad for him. He's been highly successful at every stage of his career; high school superstar, star of the Japanese Pacific League, and two time MVP of the WBC.

But he's now facing the kind of adversity that is completely unfamiliar and foreign to him. This is unchartered ground for Matsuzaka. He is a stranger to failure.

At this point, it's impossible to find anything to feel optimistic about as far as Matsuzaka is concerned. Cumulatively, batters are hitting an astounding .378 against him, and he his 2.20 WHIP is nothing short of absurd.

Last season Matsuzaka allowed just 12 home runs the entire season; this year he's already given up eight long balls in just eight starts.

Yes, Matsuzaka won 33 games over the previous two seasons, the fourth most in baseball. However, of the 12 pitchers to win at least 30 games in that span, Matsuzaka ranks last in innings pitched.

At an average salary of just under $9 million per season, for a pitcher who is averaging just five innings per start over the past two seasons, Matsuzaka makes a ton of money for very little work. Perhaps that could be said of any professional athlete, but it's especially true with Matsuzaka.

I suggested in a previous post that the Sox might consider dealing Matsuzaka if the right offer was made. But at this point, any trade value that Matsuzaka previously possessed has now been ruined.

As of now, Matsuzaka doesn't deserve to be in the starting rotation, or on the staff for that matter. Some time on the DL, followed by a rehab assignment, could build his confidence, while helping him recover both physically and mentally. As I said previously, the big league mound is no place to try to work out a pitcher's issues, be they mechanical or psychological.

With John Smoltz set to make his Red Sox debut this week, the time for Matsuzaka to be replaced in the rotation has finally arrived.

The truth is, it's long overdue.

Copyright © 2009 Sean M. Kennedy. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the author’s consent.

To Make Room, Matsuzaka as Bait?

With John Smoltz set to begin the 2009 season after coming off his current 30-day rehab assignment, the Red Sox have a roster decision to make. With five healthy starters already, and a potential Hall of Famer raring to go, something's gotta give.

So far this season, the weakest link in the Red Sox rotation has clearly been Daisuke Matsuzaka. At 1-4, with 7.55 ERA, Matsuzaka has been more than just a disappointment; he's been a disaster. Matsuzaka has yet to give the Sox a single quality start this year, and it's mid-June. In addition, just like last season, Matsuzaka has already been on the DL.

Since returning from his shoulder injury on May 22, Matsuzaka is 1-3 with a 6.20 ERA. And each time he pitches, the Japanese righty is a drain on the Red Sox stellar bullpen, lasting fewer than five innings per start.

Since joining the Red Sox three years ago, Matsuzaka has been plagued by high pitch counts and excessive walks. Matsuzaka's innings per start have declined consistently each year:

2007: 6.4 innings per start.
2008: 5.8 innings per start
2009: 4.4 innings per start

And the high walk totals have contributed to the high pitch counts and early exits. Last year, Matsuzaka's 94 BB were the fourth most in the Majors. In 2007, his 80 walks were the 12th highest in baseball. In all, Matsuzaka has already issued 188 walks in his brief career.

At this point, the Sox expectations of him are so low that other members of the starting rotation volunteered - in advance - to relieve him last night, anticipating a short start. Brad Penny and Tim Wakefield both offered to take the pressure off an already overworked bullpen that had played a key role in the Sox 13 inning victory the previous evening.

If there is one starter whose performance and statistics absolutely scream for replacement, it's obviously Matsuzaka. The Sox could claim that Matsuzaka is not fully recovered from the right shoulder strain that landed him in the DL in April; and perhaps that's just the case. After last night's game, Matsuzaka cryptically mentioned that he's having problems, declining to elaborate. Putting him back on the DL would allow the Sox to create the roster spot for Smoltz, and give time for Matsuzaka and the pitching coaches to work out his issues.

Without question, Matsuzaka is not the pitcher the Red Sox thought they were getting when they paid $51.11 million to the Seibu Lions for the right to negotiate a $52 million, six-year contract. Not quite half way into that pact, Matsuzaka looks grossly overpaid, and the Sox looked suckered.

Matsuzaka is maddeningly frustrating. At times he blows hitters away with a powerful fastball and looks dominant. Other times he can't seem to find the plate or trust his stuff, instead choosing to nibble at the corners. But if a pitcher isn't consistently throwing strikes, hitters won't get fooled into swinging out of the strike zone and help him out. That's Matsuzaka's problem.

Matsuzaka was famously advertised for throwing the "gyroball", and for having a six or seven-pitch repertoire. False advertising. At best, the righty appears to possess a trio of fastballs (two-seam, four-seam, and cutter), to go along with a slider and a good curveball. He occasionally throws an ineffective change-up and splitter, pitches he therefore doesn't trust; and for good reason — they're usually not in the strike zone (42% and 35% of the time, respectively).

That's the overall problem; Matsuzaka doesn't trust himself or the defense behind him. He tries to paint the corners, fearful of giving batters anything decent to hit. In the process doesn't throw strikes. Matsuzaka frequently finds himself in deep counts, resulting in high pitch totals early in games and too many walks.

While there has been plenty of talk of the Sox dealing Penny to make room for Smoltz, a good case could be made for offering Matsuzaka instead. Perhaps he could be packaged with Julio Lugo. It's hard to tell if other clubs would see Lugo as the requisite dead weight to obtain a starting pitcher who won 33 games over his first two seasons, or view Matsuzaka as the necessary sweetener for taking Lugo.

With his weighty contract (roughly $32 million remaining over the next 3 1/2 years) inconsistency, injury history and the number of pitches his arm and shoulder have famously endured since high school, it's hard to determine just what exactly Matsuzaka's trade value would be. He's a proven starter in the tough AL East, yet he can't make it out of the fifth inning and may be poised for further injury and a brief career.

Any trade talk regarding Matsuzaka is nothing more than speculation and conjecture, simply making for good conversation. The reality is that Matsuzaka has a full no-trade clause in his contract. And despite his struggles this season, and how frustrating it has always been to watch him pitch since Day One, he is still just 28-years-old and went 18-3 last season with a 2.90 ERA. Many of those wins were despite himself, and the result of playing on an excellent team with a solid offense. But the Sox may not be ready to give up on him just yet.

Yet, they need to make room for Smoltz, and they have Clay Buchholz waiting in the wings while he mows down AAA hitters. The Sox may quietly inquire with Dice-K about a move to the more pitcher-friendly NL, and to a West Coast team that would place him a bit closer to his home in Japan.

If Matsuzaka agreed, I'm betting that Theo Epstein would gladly listen to any and all serious inquiries and/or offers.

Copyright © 2009 Sean M. Kennedy. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the author’s consent.

JON LESTER SHINES AGAIN

With his 11 strike outs against the Phillies tonight, Jon Lester became the first lefty in Red Sox history to record double-digit strikeouts in three consecutive starts.

If a casual observer looked at Lester's 5-5 record and 5.09 ERA coming into tonight's game, he/she would be unimpressed. He or she would also be fooled. After a slow start this spring, Lester has been absolutely scorching as of late.

In his last three starts, Lester's line looks like this:

Innings / start 7.1
Runs 3
Earned Runs 3
Walks 8
Strikeouts 34
HR 0

Though his overall numbers obscure it, Lester's recent outings portray him as the burgeoning ace the Red Sox were sure they had in their rotation to start this season.

Going back to last year, Lester's growth and development has been remarkable. Gone are the days when he would throw 100 pitches in five or so innings, burdening himself by walking multiple batters along the way.

Long gone.

When Lester takes the mound these days, the Red Sox, and their fans, expect certain victory. Lester appears unfazed by this and seems immune to pressure. His confidence appears to be sky high, as well it should be, He's once again proving himself to be a stopper and a winner.

Though he didn't get the win (thanks to a Ryan Howard blast off Ramon Ramirez), Lester lowered his ERA to 4.76 and now has 96 Ks this season.

The 25-year-old actually appears to get stronger as the game goes on. Hopefully that same attribute will hold true as the season grinds on. A healthy and potent Lester will make all the difference to the Red Sox in October.

Taking Stock of the Red Sox

Fifty-seven games into the 2009 season, the Red Sox are 33-24, identical to the record they posted one year ago through the same number of games.

The Sox are just over a third of the way through their 162 game grind, and they find themselves a game out of first place with the best home record in the AL (18-8).

Going into the season, the Sox were projected to have one of the finest, if not the best, rotations in baseball. So far, they've been pretty good, with some noticeable hiccups. The Sox are tied for fourth in the AL with a 4.27 team ERA, thanks to a bullpen which is simply the best in baseball.

But that obscures the fact that the Sox starting five have been anything but stellar. In fact, they've been entirely lackluster. Josh Beckett (4.09), Tim Wakefield (4.50), Jon Lester (5.09), Brad Penny (5.85) and Daisuke Matsuzaka (7.33) have a combined ERA of 5.37.

Matsuzaka looks lost, surrendering 44 hits and 13 walks in just 27 innings, and has already lost more games than he did all last season.

Penny, though 5-2, has an ERA approaching six and is winning despite himself, owing his success to offensive support.

All of this provides some reason for concern, though the venerable John Smoltz and Clay Buchholz (4-0, 1.73 ERA at Pawtucket) lie in waiting.

Yet, there is additional reason for reassurance. Namely that after slow starts Beckett and Lester have been coming on as of late.

Josh Beckett Since May 5:

6 starts
4-0 record
2.40 ERA
14 walks
37 strike outs
6 quality starts
5-1 team record

And Lester, though 5-5, is coming off two absolutely dominating performances in which he threw a combined 15 innings, allowing just two runs on five hits. Oh, and then there were the whopping 23 K's. Lester leads the team with 85 strikeouts (in just 74.1 innings) and is on pace to break 200 this year.

And then there's the Red Sox bullpen, which has been lights out this season with a 2.76 ERA, the best in all of baseball. And it's been particularly good over the past month:

Since May 10
23 games
61.2 innings
1.91 ERA
12 home runs (T-Fewest in AL)

Over that period, Hideki Okajima rode a streak of 16.1 scoreless innings, the longest on the Sox this season. Oki has rediscovered the form that made him so successful two years ago. He's deceptive and able to keep hitters off balance. He doesn't throw hard, but he gets hitters out.

Perhaps the biggest, and most pleasant, surprise so far has been the Sox offense, which ranks fourth in the AL in runs scored (300), home runs (66) and OPS (.804). And they've done it without the man who was formerly their most potent hitter.

Surely, the biggest disappointment this year has been the incredible vanishing act of David Ortiz. The man once known as Big Papi is no longer a big time, big game hitter and now routinely comes up small at the plate. Ortiz is batting a miniscule .197, with 55 whiffs and countless weak pop outs.

Ortiz had his eyes checked this week and the results were positive. So it's not a vision issue, a la Jim Rice. Ortiz simply, and suddenly, seems to have about as much pop as the feeble Julio Lugo.

Over the last three years, Ortiz has seen his average fly ball distance significantly drop from 310 feet in 2007, to 275 in 2008, to just 261 feet this season. That's almost at 50 foot drop-off from 2007, the career year in which he hit a club record 52 home runs. What were once home run balls now drop innocently into outfielder's gloves.

Red Sox management has been especially patient, cognizant of what Ortiz has meant to the team and the city since he arrived in 2003. But their Job-like patience is likely wearing thin. Internal and external solutions to the gaping hole in the order that is Ortiz are surely being discussed.

All kinds of names have been bandied about as possible trade targets. Adrian Gonzalez and Victor Martinez are the most desirable mentioned so far, but either would come at a prohibitive price — namely Buchholz, or possibly Lars Anderson. If Andersen is as good as advertised, that could be a big loss since he's the only true power hitter in the system.

Martinez is an excellent hitter who is currently sixth in batting in the Majors (.344) and has 20-25 home run power. But he has inconsistent game calling skills and is 30 years old. He is not the youthful solution at catcher, though he can play first base.

The Sox have long coveted Gonzalez, but Padres GM Kevin Towers described the 27-year-old as untouchable, noting that he is a cornerstone of a rebuilding franchise. With an MLB-best 22 dingers, even if made suddenly available, Gonzalez would generate wide interest and a huge asking price.

Yet, it's easy to envision the Sox anchoring him at first, Youkilis at third, and moving Mike Lowell to DH. Lowell is only under contract for one more year, and the team needs to think about the future anyway.

The Sox have had many inquiries about Buchholz and have never found any offers to be satisfactory. That's simply because good young pitching is harder to find than hitting, and it's what organizations build their teams around. Next year Wakefield, Smoltz and Penny could all be gone. The Sox will need Buchholz and he is poised for a good, long career, which he's only just beginning.

So the Sox will continue to listen to offers, and to make offers. Julio Lugo at half salary anyone? Good luck with that, Theo. The team presently has needs at DH and at shortstop. If Jed Lowrie gets healthy and returns soon, that would solve one problem.

Yet it seems inevitable that at least one trade will be executed, and room will still have to be created for Smoltz and/or Buchholz to join the rotation. Brad Penny, and his bloated ERA, is eligible to be traded one week from now. Despite his ERA, he may command some trade value. Pitching is always a prized commodity.

Undoubtedly, there will be some tinkering in order to make this competitive roster even better.

There is lots to like as is: Kevin Youkilis, Dustin Pedrioa and Jason Bay are all elite players and should be perennial All Stars for years to come. With his .302 average, Jacoby Ellsbury is proving he can hit Big League pitching and is ahead of last year's 50-steal pace. Mike Lowell is having as good a year as anyone could have reasonably expected. And Jason Varitek is on pace for 30 homers! WTF?

Yes, there are questions beyond Ortiz: Can George Kottaras ever be more than a once-a-week catcher and a .188 hitter? Can Rocco Baldelli, Mark Kotsay and JD Drew all stay healthy the rest of the season? Not likely.

But the Sox seem to have more answers than questions and appear to be built for the long haul and the post-season. With a wise trade or two, they could surely be a playoff team once again. And once you get there, who knows? Anything can happen.

Copyright © 2009 Sean M. Kennedy. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the author’s consent.

Francona Reaches Milestone

Red Sox Manager Records 500th Win Against Detroit

With the Red Sox 5-1 victory over the Tigers tonight, manager Terry Francona became just the third Red Sox skipper to win 500 games with the club. Francona joins the legendary Joe Cronin and Mike "Pinky" Higgins in this distinction.

Cronin, the former Sox shortstop, managed the club from 1935-1947, all but the last three seasons as a player-manager. He is the only manager in the Red Sox long and storied history with as many as 1,000 wins, and was elected to the Hall of Fame in 1956.

However, for all of his greatness as a player and success as a manager, Cronin never led the Red Sox to a World Series Victory.

Francona, on the other hand, led the Sox to two World Series victories in four years, including the team's first in 86 years. Furthermore, Francona managed his way to 500 wins in just 5 1/2 seasons, a rather impressive feat.

The professional Francona responded to the accomplishment in his customarily humble manner.

"That means I've been really lucky with an organization with a lot of players that have been very good and with a staff that helps me out more than I help them," the skipper said.

Francona has guided the Red Sox to the playoffs four times in his first five seasons, the only Sox manager to reach the postseason more than twice. He has won 90+ games four times with the Red Sox, the most in team history. And Francona also has the best winning percentage in team history, among managers with 400 or more games.

Manager Years Record

Joe Cronin 1935-1947 1,071-916

Pinky Higgins 1955-1959, 1960-1962 560-556

Terry Francona 2004-Present 500-362

Bill Carrigan 1913-1916, 1927-1929 489-500

Jimmy Collins 1901-1906 455-376

Jimy Williams 1997-2001 414-352

Don Zimmer 1976-1980 411-304

The Torch Has Been Passed

In last night's game against the Yankees, the Red Sox may have unofficially (at least) witnessed a symbolic passing of the torch, or the baton or, more appropriately, the bat.

Stepping to plate in the 9th inning of a tie game, David Ortiz, who built his reputation as "the most clutch hitter in Red Sox history" feebly struck out. Then he did the same again in the 11th. Sadly, it was part of a trend, not only of the night, but of the newly minted 2009 season.

Ortiz struck an embarrassing four times in six at-bats last night, and entered today's game third in the Majors with 20 whiffs. Mired in a what may be more than merely an early season slump, Big Papi is hitting a paltry .215, which doesn't begin to approach his hefty weight, officially listed at 230 pounds.

Ortiz's problems go back to at least last season, when he suffered through a wrist ailment and hit just .264 with 23 homers and 89 RBI.

Over a three year span from 2004-2006, Ortiz averaged 48 homers and 141 RBI. But in 2007, Ortiz, while having an excellent season by most standards, didn't measure up to his Ruth-like past. Ortiz had 35 homers and 117 RBI, while dealing with a knee injury that most believed had hampered his hitting.

But it was simply the first stage of a decline that accelerated last year and looks downright precipitous this year.

Whereas Ortiz made highlight reel moments routine, and created lifetime memories for Sox fans over his first five years in Boston, this year he simply wilts under pressure -- the very moments he used thrive in.

Into the void has leapt Kevin Youkilis. After a career-year in 2008, in which he lead the team in homers (29), RBI (115), and OPS (.959), Youkilis finished third in the MVP voting and established himself as a team leader and one of the game's best all-around hitters.

Last night at Fenway, Youkilis proved that once again, and emphatically established himself as the inheritor of Ortiz's former mantle as the Sox best clutch hitter. In addition, he is now the team's premier power hitter, Jason Bay notwithstanding.

Stepping to the plate in the bottom of the 11th, Youkilis blasted a definitive and decisive shot over the Monster Seats. It was very fitting; Youkilis has surpassed Ortiz as the heart and soul of the Red Sox order. At this point, "Big Youkie" is the team's most potent and dependable power hitter, eclipsing Ortiz and becoming the big bat that Ortiz previously acknowledged the team needed.

In light of that, it's somewhat ironic that the Red Sox miss Ortiz's bat even more than that of Manny Ramirez.

Copyright © 2009 Sean M. Kennedy. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the author’s consent.

Mark Fidrych: Twice Gone Before His Time

Fidrych Put the Joy in Baseball

I was saddened to hear about the untimely death of Mark Fidrych.

Baseball fans all over the country immediately fell in love with "The Bird" in 1976. He was playful and goofy, without any hint of pretension. Fidrych put the fun in baseball; he was a big kid in a kid's game. One of the game's genuine characters, he simply captured our imaginations.

On the heels of Fred Lynn, Fidrych almost pulled off his own awards double-play; he was named Rookie of the Year and finished second to Jim Palmer in the Cy Young balloting.

Fidrych went 19-7 as a rookie, leading the league in earned-run average (2.34) and complete games (24).

For comparisons sake, Roy Halladay led the Majors with nine complete games last year. My, how the game has changed.

Halladay also led the Majors in innings, with 246. As a rookie, Fidrych threw 250 innings. That would never happen in today's game.

I don't know if modern pitchers are any less durable, or if teams are simply protecting their investments. Bullpens are notoriously dicey, and many games are lost after a manager goes to his relievers. Most teams would be better off just riding their starter through at least eight innings. Perhaps it's all about prolonging careers, or do modern pitchers simply tire earlier than their predecessors? Surely, they are more pampered; no one will ever get used to pitching nine innings and completing their starts unless given the opportunity.

The pitchers of previous eras threw numerous complete games on four-man rotations and still had lengthy, productive careers; many pitched for 20 years, or more.

But no pitcher has reached double digits in complete-games since Scott Erickson had 11 for Baltimore in 1998.

From the 1920's through the mid-‘80's, 20-30 complete games a season were commonplace in baseball. No longer.

Most recently - in 1985 - Bert Blyleven had 24 complete games for Cleveland and Minnesota. And in 1986 Fernando Valenzuela had 20 for the Dodgers. But no pitcher has reached 20 complete games since then, and it's likely that no one ever will again.

Fidrych was a byproduct of that bygone era, when pitchers were truly work horses that could carry heavy loads over great distances.

But his brilliant flame burned out rather quickly; he made just 11 starts in 1977, and a combined total of just 16 over the following three seasons. His career was effectively over in 1980. Fidrych's rocketing ascent briefly scorched baseball's atmosphere before quickly coming back to earth.

However, it wasn't the result of overuse. Fidrych tore knee cartilage while chasing fly balls in the outfield during spring training in 1977 and was placed on the disabled list. He sustained a serious shoulder injury that July while compensating for the knee problem. Sadly, he never fully recovered. Fidrych won just 10 big league games after his remarkable rookie year.

Even more sadly, his life, like his career, ultimately proved to be far too short.

He will be missed by many.

Copyright © 2009 Sean M. Kennedy. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the author’s consent.

For Red Sox, Nothing is a Given

The Red Sox have dropped two of the first three games of the 2009 season. No cause for alarm; it's far to early for that.

But what makes it sting a bit is the fact that they were at home, where they have the best winning percentage in baseball over the past six seasons (.652), and they lost to their newest rival – the defending AL Champion Tampa Bay Rays.

We've all become accustomed to the Red Sox wining their home series, as well as beating up on the lowly Rays. Things are changing. At the least, the Rays have changed.

I must say up front that I have been dubious about the Rays' ability to repeat the success of 2008. After they won the 2006 AL Pennant, the conventional wisdom was that the Tigers were a young, up and coming powerhouse that would contend for years to come. They had speed, defense, power, pitching and a seasoned, successful manager. That didn't quite work out for the Tigers.

I wouldn't be surprised if the same happened to the Rays and they fall back to earth. But, simply by this small three-game sample, perhaps I'm wrong.

For decades, the Red Sox have been a team built on offense. They have had an offense perennially stacked with big boppers and have relied on the long ball to win games. And the Sox of this decade are no exception. From 2003-2008 (the Theo Epstein/Terry Francona era) the Sox have averaged nearly six runs per game. Those days may be a thing of the past.

This version of the Red Sox seems to be built on pitching and defense. Offensively, the current lineup is laden with question marks. Mike Lowell, David Ortiz are aging and coming off injury. JD Drew and Julio Lugo are inconsistent and coming off injury. Their reserves may need reserves; Mark Kotsay will soon return from back surgery, and Rocco Baldelli may be incapable of being an everyday player ever again. George Kottaras has played five career games in the Majors and Chris Carer has played nine. Nick Green is Nick Green. And will Jacoby Ellsbury or Jed Lowrie ever fully mature and develop?

The truth is, the only sure things in the Red Sox nine-man lineup, or bating order, are Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis and Jason Bay; that's one-third, folks.

I'm not throwing in the towel by any means; again, it's far too early for that. The Sox will have one of the best starting rotations in baseball (if not the best), and perhaps the game's best bullpen. The team has solid defenders at almost every position. But they will have to keep runners off the base paths, and runs off the board, to win. They can no longer rely on three-run homers to win games, or to vault them back into the lead in late innings.

There are many questions on this year's Red Sox; more so than in the club's recent run of success, going back to 2003. Even the vaunted pitching staff has reasonable questions; can Tim Wakefield remain healthy? At age 42, can he remain effective? Will Brad Penny's arm endure the rigors of a full season? Will pitching in the WBC cause Dice-K to run out of gas earlier in the season? Can he manage to give the team at least six innings per start? Can Jon Lester repeat last year's success? It was just one season, after all. Can Josh Beckett put last season's health issues behind him? Is Clay Buchholz ready to step up and become a big league pitcher? Can he ever fully live up to the hype and the promise?

I'm not trying to be negative. I'm asking legitimate questions that have to be asked. This team is shrouded in uncertainty.

The good news is that the Yankees have their issues as well, as do the Angels. There is an excellent chance that the AL Wild Card will once again come from the East this year. Who it will be is anybody's guess, as is who will ultimately prevail as division champs. The Rays will have the kind of pressure on them this year that they've never faced before. They stepped up and answered the initial round of questioning quite nicely in the past few days, however.

Though the Sox have significant and serious questions, at this point they still seem to have as good a chance as anyone else in the AL East, or the entire AL for that matter. All teams have questions; most are just an injury or two from falling right out of contention. The difference for the Red Sox this year, unlike in recent years, is this; there are no givens any longer.

Copyright © 2009 Sean M. Kennedy. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the author’s consent.

The A-Fraud Saga: Just the Latest Disappointing Chapter in Baseball's Recent History

In the wake of a damning SI story, one with four different sources, Alex Rodriquez was forced to do damage control today, admitting that he "did take a banned substance."

And naturally, aside from the admission, which only came when he was flat busted, there was the obligatory public apology.

"For that, I'm very sorry and deeply regretful.... I'm sorry to my fans, I'm sorry to my fans in Texas."

Let's get one thing straight; the only thing A-Rod is sorry about is getting outed – that's it. He was never sorry that he used performance enhancing drugs (PEDs) until he was cornered and could do little else but apologize.

So now we know that the game's highest-paid player, and perhaps its best all-around player, is a cheat. Some will say, 'At least he's not a liar. He came clean.'

A-Rod only came clean when he had to, because he had too. He's seen this play out before, when other beefed up sluggers, similarly accused and on the defensive, made vigorous, yet unbelievable, denials.

Honesty is the best salve. The truth sets you free.

Up to this point, A-Rod had been lying all along. And he still may be.

When questioned on the subject by Katie Couric, during a 2007 60 Minutes interview, A-Rod was unequivocal.

Couric: For the record, have you ever used steroids, human growth hormone, or any other performance-enhancing substance?

Rodriguez: No. I've never felt overmatched on the baseball field. I've always been a very strong, dominant position. And I felt that if I did my work since I was, you know, a rookie back in Seattle, I didn't have a problem competing at any level. So, no.

A-Fraud has no credibility. He is not believable. He is a man watching his reputation go up in flames, and he will say or do whatever is necessary to salvage whatever is left of it. He claims he only used PEDs from 2001-2003. Why should anyone believe him?

In 2000, his last year in Seattle, Rodriguez batted .316 with 41 home runs and 132 RBI.

In 2005, with the Yankees, he batted .321 with 48 home runs and 130 RBI. For his efforts, he won another MVP award.

In 2007, he batted .314 with 54 homers and 156 RBI, winning his third MVP.

Were those performances, in those years, fueled by PEDs as well? We may never know, but based on what we know now, it certainly can be – perhaps should be – viewed with a very suspicious eye.

Rodriguez tested positive for testosterone and Primobolan, an injected or orally administered drug. Primobolan is said to be favored because it is detectable for a shorter period of time than the steroid previously favored by players, Deca-Durabolin.

For baseball, this may be the exclamation point, the final emphasis, on what will forever be known as the "Steroid Era."

Just when baseball thought it was rebuilding its reputation, ridding itself of the dishonor that is Barry Bonds once and for all, this new A-Roid scandal erupts. And the guy that everyone was hoping would erase the black eye that is Bonds is now revealed to be just like Bonds after all.

The player's union is complicit in all of this. For years, union officials refused to acknowledge the extent of the steroid problem; Union chief Gene Orza once said of steroids, "I have no doubt that they are not worse than cigarettes."

And it has now also been revealed that Orza tipped off A-Rod about a pending test in September 2004. At least that's what three anonymous players have told SI. That makes the union, and worse its leader, complicit. And it destroys A-Rod's claim that he stopped taking PEDs after he left Texas. Bullshit, Alex.

The player's union has long been an impediment, fighting testing from the beginning, while ignoring the interests of its members who were put at a competitive disadvantage by not using PEDs.

The union has so much power that it was able to hide not only illicit, but illegal, behavior for years.

That's hubris.

And now we know that Alex Rodriguez suffers from a healthy dose of it as well. But, then again, we knew that already, didn't we?

Copyright © 2009 Sean M. Kennedy. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the author’s consent.

Manny a Yankee?

Though this is a dreadful notion to Red Sox fans, it is quite possible, if not likely.

Given that Manny just turned down a one-year, $25M proposal from the Dodgers, it would hardly be a surprise if the free agent is sitting on a two-year offer from the Yankees that he's currently trying to leverage.

The conventional wisdom is that Manny doesn't have any options other than the Dodgers; no one truly believes the Giants will make a persuasive offer. Yet he must have gotten a better offer from some other team, and the Yankees are the most logical choice. They have a long history of stealthily swooping in, seemingly out of nowhere, and landing coveted free agents. Mark Teixeira was only the most recent example.

Don't think for a moment that the Yankees are dissuaded by their already crowded outfield; they would gladly trade both Nick Swisher and Xavier Nady if necessary, and would surely find takers for both. It's been reported that they've already fielded calls from interested teams regarding both players.

Signing Manny would be the perfect dagger for the Yanks to wield against to the Sox, and you know they would just love to stick it in and then slowly twist. Moreover, based on his own sort of twisted logic, Manny may feel exactly the same way.

There is little doubt that Theo and co. have considered this very possibility, if not probability. However, the rest of Red Sox Nation may not have fully considered what would be considered a nightmare scenario. Be prepared for a lot of pissing and moaning when/if such an event occurs.

The Teixeira heist (as perceived by Sox fans) was nothing. Manny in pinstripes will cause seizures and heart attacks all over New England, and beyond.

Don't be fooled, and don't be surprised; not even for a minute.


Addendum on the free agency signing process:

If there are between 39 and 62 Type A or Type B free agents available, each team can sign no more than three. Yet, there were more than 62 of these free agents that filed this winter (30 Type A's and 36 Type B's).

According to baseball's Collective Bargaining Agreement, "If there are more than 62 such Players, the Club quotas shall be increased accordingly." However, it does not specify what exactly that increase would be.

Regardless of these limits, a team can sign as many Type A or B free agents as it has lost, even if those signings would put the team over the quota for that winter.

So far, the Yankees have lost:

Bobby Abreu - Type A
Mike Mussina - Type A
Ivan Rodriguez - Type B

Each team can sign as many type A's as it loses, and can add three additional type A's. Re-signing your own Type A free agent (i.e. Andy Petitte) doesn't count against you. Which means the Yankees can add up to six Type A free agents this off-season.

Copyright © 2009 Sean M. Kennedy. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the author’s consent.

Wilkerson Signing Provides Red Sox Additional Veteran Depth

The Red Sox signing of Brad Wilkerson to a minor league contract could end up being a wise and helpful move at some point this season.

A left-handed hitter, the 31-year-old right fielder has displayed power in the past, totaling 122 career homers. He hit exactly 20 homers in two seasons, and 19 in another. Yet his finest year was 2004, when he totaled 32 homers, 146 hits, 106 walks, 39 doubles, scored 112 runs, and posted an .872 OPS.

Wilkerson appeared to be a rising star, but he never fully lived up to the promise he displayed in '04.

He spent his first four seasons in Montreal '(01-'04) and remained with the organization when they moved to Washington in '05. His next two seasons were spent with Texas, and last year was split between Seattle and Toronto. All of that movement showed that while teams had high hopes, they were never fully realized.

The problem is that Wilkerson simply isn't a great hitter, as evidenced by his career .247 average and .350 OBP. For six consecutive seasons Wilkerson struck out at least 100 times, surpassing 150 three consecutive times.

However, he is still young enough to recapture some of the magic he possessed early in his career; he was named Rookie of the Year in 2002, after hitting 20 homers and scoring 92 runs. What's more, he has also twice hit for the cycle (2003 and 2005).

As recently as 2005, the Sox latest addition notched 42 doubles, and just two years ago he smacked 20 home runs . Wilkerson is a line drive hitter who could fare well at Fenway Park. Defensively, he has shown great versatility, playing 233 career games at first base, and many more at center.

The Red Sox have health questions with numerous players, including Mike Lowell, David Ortiz, and Rocco Baldelli. And then there's the always fragile JD Drew, who could seemingly go on the DL at any time.

Wilkerson's versatility will give the Red Sox additional veteran depth, which could prove quite valuable down the road this season.

Reality Check for Varitek

This is clearly a moment of reckoning for Jason Varitek. It is also a defining moment, a moment of truth.

Will he or won't he accept the Red Sox formal offer, one that guarantees him $8 million over the next two seasons?

With no incentives for games played or at-bats, the deal is a far cry from the minimum of $10 million he forfeited in rejecting arbitration. It's easily imaginable that the current situation has left a most bitter taste in his mouth.

On the whole, Varitek must be feeling especially humbled right now. Little more than two weeks remain before Major League pitchers and catchers are due to report for Spring Training, and no other team wants the free agent catcher. That's got to smart. It's got to be incredibly deflating.

The truth is, Varitek gambled and lost. He rolled the dice and they just didn't roll his way. He figured that filing for free agency would result in long-term, big money offers from multiple suitors. False.

I don't doubt for a second that Varitek has wanted to return to the Red Sox all along; it's just that he wanted to do so on his own terms. Multiple offers would have given him leverage with the Red Sox and raised his price. That never materialized. Ultimately, he only has himself to blame. And apparently he understands this.

Varitek claims he wasn't aware that teams would have to surrender draft picks, much less a No. 1 draft pick, in order to sign him. He says he takes full responsibility for his decision to turn down salary arbitration from the Red Sox and that he doesn't blame Scott Boras for that. While the agent should have given him better advice, Varitek is right to take full responsibility for this error.

It's bizarre that a veteran ballplayer, one who has filed for free agency in the past, didn't understand the basic rules of free agency. It's not only indefensible, it's unbelievable. Varitek had to have known better; he is a grown man, an educated man, a millionaire. He had to take responsibility for that. Not to have done so would have hurt his credibility and reputation. But his agent also has some culpability for not making all of this abundantly clear to him before the process began.

Now Varitek is left with little leverage, and the bitter taste of humility rolling around in his mouth.

The 11-year veteran is nearly 37, a time when most catchers are well in decline, have moved on to a less taxing position, or are retired. Varitek's skills have declined considerably; the best that can be said about him is that he "calls a good game," and that he "prepares very well."

The truth is, Varitek was only able to throw out 22% of base stealers last season, which is below average. The top ten catchers in the Majors caught between 29% and 44% of base stealers. Varitek was 18th in that category. However, this was the least of his issues.

Though Varitek hit just .220 last season, what's really worrisome is that he batted a mere .187 after May 21. And what some people have forgotten is that Varitek hit .225 after the All-Star break in 2007. This means that over the last season-and-a-half, Varitek has hit just .222, and we shouldn't expect a significant improvement. Last year was not an aberration – it was part of a continuing decline.

Varitek's 13 homers were his second lowest for any season in which he had at least 400 at-bats, and his 43 RBI were his lowest for any season with 400 at-bats. He was an automatic out from the left side, leading many to suggest that he should stick to batting from the right.

None of this should suggest that Varitek is washed up or should retire. He can still play, just not at the elite level he once did.

Last year, Varitek put up the following line: .220/.313/.359

Meanwhile, the league average for AL catchers was: .258/.322/.393

So, Varitek was below average in all categories. This means he should be paid below average. Yet, the Red Sox have given him a better than fair offer, considering his recent performance. They have allowed Varitek to save face and hold his head high. They have not sought to humiliate their Captain; after all, they want him back for at least one more season, perhaps two.

Thirty-eight-year-old Gregg Zaun, a similar offensive catcher at this stage, just accepted a one-year, $1.5 million contract from Baltimore. Varitek should consider himself lucky not to have to play for similar money.

Despite the Red Sox hatred of Scott Boras, they are not trying to stick it to Varitek. They are not being vindictive by offering him a guaranteed $8 million (possibly $10 million) over the next two years. This is not an attempt at humiliation by his employers. This is as good as it gets for Varitek. This is more than fair market value at this stage of his career.

The Red Sox don't need to negotiate any further. They have all the leverage now, and Varitek has reportedly been given a Saturday deadline to accept the offer.

What's in it for the Red Sox?

Varitek is the team Captain. He is a leader. He was behind the plate for two World Series Championship teams – the first in the lifetimes of almost all Red Sox fans. He's also caught four no-hitters for the Sox, and been behind the plate for more games than any other catcher in team history. He can competently and deftly handle a pitching staff comprised of seasoned veterans and inexperienced youth.

He should do the right thing, the smart thing, and accept the Red Sox generous offer. Truthfully, it's the only thing. It's all he has left.

Varitek gambled, and he lost a lot of money this winter. It's time for him to accept it and move on – with the Sox.

Copyright © 2009 Sean M. Kennedy. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the author’s consent.

PROSPECTS ARE A GAMBLE

There has been a lot of discussion this offseason about the possibility of the Red Sox trading a pitching prospect for a catching prospect. Most often, these discussions have centered on the idea of exchanging either Clay Buchholz or Michael Bowden for Arizona's Miguel Montero, or for one of Texas' young catchers, Jarrod Saltalamacchia or Taylor Teagarden.

The problem with prospects is that you never truly know what you’re dealing with, what you’re giving up, or what you’re getting in return.

Remember Andy Marte? He was the highly touted third base prospect the Red Sox got from Atlanta in exchange for Edgar Renteria. The Sox then flipped Marte and Kelly Shoppach to Cleveland for Coco Crisp, David Riske and Josh Bard. The move wasn't without great protest in Red Sox Nation. After all, the Sox were believed to be trading away a budding star, a heart of the order hitter, and the third baseman of the future.

But Marte, that once-heralded prospect, now qualifies as a bust. In 513 career Major League at-bats, he’s hit .211 with a .337 slugging percentage. At this point, the Indians have so little faith in him that they traded three prospects to the Cubs in exchange for utility infielder Mark DeRosa, who will now become their third baseman.

The Indians made the trade despite the fact that Marte is out of options and cannot be returned to the minors. He batted only .221 in 80 games last season, and had to hit .291 over his final 34 games just to finish with that meager average. If the guy doesn’t get it together quickly, he could be out of baseball at the age of 25. As a result, this could be a make or break year for the former wunderkind.

Prospects who are considered “can’t miss” clearly can miss – sometimes badly. Many Red Sox fans surely remember Brian Rose; he went from top prospect to journeyman pitcher in a heartbeat.

And, quite famously, Buchholz threw a no-hitter in just the second game of his career in September 2007. He then proceeded to go 2-9, with a 6.75 ERA, in his encore last season. Initially he looked like second-coming of Cy Young. Then he looked like a guy who belonged in the minors. So which is it?

No one knows for sure. It's all guesswork and projection when dealing with prospects. And any Sox fans salivating over the idea of Saltalamacchia, one of the game's premier catching prospects, crouching behind the plate in a Boston jersey, should have realistic expectations.

The following three players were among the most highly touted prospects in baseball over the past few years. Although each is young and still has time to mature and develop, based on previous expectations and projections, each looks like a bust at this point. In each case, the team that drafted and attempted to develop the player eventually gave up and cut ties with him.

24-year-old outfielder Elijah Dukes, Washington Nationals
Two seasons, 460 at-bats, 23 HR, 65 RBI, .235 AVG., .359 OBP, .443 SLG.

23-year-old outfielder Lastings Milledge, Washington Nationals
Three seasons, 873 at-bats, 25 HR, 112 RBI, .263 AVG, .329 OBP, .407 SLG

23-year-old outfielder Felix Pie, Baltimore Orioles
Two seasons, 260 at-bats, 3 HR, 30 RBI, .223 AVG., .284 OBP, .331 SLG

As much as "can't miss" prospects do indeed miss, sometimes overlooked prospects are traded and go on to become stars. Case in point:

Sox fans who are old enough to remember will probably forever lament the August 30, 1990 trade that brought Larry Andersen to Boston and sent HOF-caliber first baseman Jeff Bagwell to Houston.

Andersen compiled a 1.23 ERA in 15 appearances for the Red Sox, who won the AL East by two games over Toronto. The Sox were then swept by Oakland in the ALCS, and Andersen left as a free agent at season's end.

Meanwhile, Bagwell went on to win the 1991 NL Rookie of the Year, 1994 NL MVP, one Gold Glove, three Silver Sluggers, and made four All Star appearances. On the way, he compiled a career .297 average, 449 home runs and 1529 RBI.

But here's what most Sox fans probably don't know; Bagwell was a fourth-round draft choice in 1989 and hit just six home runs in 731 minor league at-bats. Though he did hit .321 while in the minors, he certainly didn't look like a superstar in the making, much less one who would eventually join the elite 400 home run club.

Bagwell will forever be remembered as the one that got away (second only to Babe Ruth, perhaps), but he never showed the raw power he developed in the Majors (perhaps with the help of PEDs).

The point is, the Sox could hang on to Buchholz or Bowden and live to regret it if one or both turns out to be a bust. On the other hand, the Sox could trade for Montero, Saltalamacchia, or Teagarden and live to regret it if he fails to develop as expected – especially if the pitcher they give up in exchange goes on to have a great career.

The bottom line is this; prospects are a gamble. We'd all be well-advised to never forget it.

Copyright © 2009 Sean M. Kennedy. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the author’s consent.

There's Got to be a Catch(er)

There were some very interesting developments in the Jason Varitek / Red Sox negotiations on Friday night.

Firstly, it was reported that Varitek personally requested a meeting with Red Sox owner John Henry. Secondly, the owner flew to meet the player in Atlanta, as opposed to Varitek coming to Boston. Thirdly, it was a one-on-one meeting; Varitek’s agent, Scott Boras, was not present.

This begs two questions that are essentially one and the same: How bad is the relationship between Varitek and Boras at this juncture, and how bad is the relationship between the Red Sox and Boras?

To that point, when asked by a TV reporter on Friday night how his relationship with Boras is these days, Henry replied, "What relationship?” before measuring his words and concluding with, “I probably shouldn't comment."

You have to figure Varitek feels pretty disenchanted with Boras right now, and must feel quite misled by him. With the absence of any market for his services, rejecting arbitration was absolutely horrible advice. The free agent turned down $10-$12 million with that ill-advised decision.

If Varitek feels that he has been poorly represented by Boras, it won’t be the first time a player has felt similarly about the agent; Gary Sheffield walked away from Boras and negotiated his own deal with the Yankees in 2003.

Despite the meeting between Henry and Varitek, word is that the Red Sox continue to explore trade talks with the Texas Rangers and Arizona Diamondbacks, regarding Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Miguel Montero, respectively.

Sean McAdam, of the Boston Herald, reported, “There are lingering doubts about [both] young receivers and their readiness to solve the team’s long-term catching problems.”

If so, that’s quite interesting.

Naturally there will be concerns about a young catcher handling a staff of young, inexperienced pitchers, coupled with seasoned veterans, on a team that expects to contend. But it would be particularly strange, and quite revealing, if the Red Sox do indeed have "long-term" concerns about the position.

There are inherent doubts about virtually every young player; it's simply part of the game. Projections are all based on guess work and assumptions. Some guys burn out quickly and never fulfill their promise Do the Sox have these concerns about Saltalamacchia and Montero?

Even if Varitek returns this season, he'll be gone in a year or two, making room for a young successor. Someone else has to take over eventually, and it seems that Saltalamacchia, in particular, is about as good a catching prospect as there is in the game today. The prevailing wisdom is that he has more upside, at least offensively, than Montero.

Unless the Red Sox are determined to continually explore the open market and sign the best available veteran free agent (meaning they’ll be paying big money to an aging player), they eventually have to go with a young catcher.

Why wouldn’t they? The Red Sox have entrusted key positions to young, inexperienced players such as Kevin Youkilis, Dustin Pedroia, Jacoby Ellsbury, Jonathan Papelbon, and Jed Lowrie. Those decisions have worked out pretty well. And it’s exactly how Varitek came to be the team leader in the first place.

Whomever the Red Sox employ to work in tandem with Josh Bard, be it Varitek, Saltalamacchia, Montero, or George Kottaras, they should be able to get at least league-average production from that duo.

Last year, the league average for AL catchers was: .258/.322/.393

The question is whether the Red Sox feel comfortable entrusting their pitching staff, crafted from a mix of experienced veterans and inexperienced youth, to a relatively inexperienced catcher?

The Red Sox have a lot invested in that deep and talented staff. It is, perhaps, the heart of the team, its greatest strength. Would management go with Bard, plus a young, untested catcher who would essentially be receiving on-the-job training?

Bard's contract isn't guaranteed, so the Sox could still re-sign Varitek and simultaneously trade for his heir-apparent.

So which of these various alternatives will it be?

It won’t take long to find out. Pitchers and catchers report on February 14.

Copyright © 2009 Sean M. Kennedy. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the author’s consent.

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An In-House Solution at Catcher for Red Sox?

Though Josh Bard is already locked in behind the plate, the Red Sox still need to secure his battery mate.

The speculation has been that the second spot will go to either free agent Jason Varitek, or one of three young catchers: Miguel Montero of the Diamondbacks, Taylor Teagarden of the Rangers, or Jarrod Saltalamacchia, also of the Rangers.

It may well end up being none of the above.

Don't be surprised if the Red Sox go with a catcher already in their organization.

That's because the Sox could probably get league-average production from the combination of Josh Bard and 25-year-old George Kottaras, whom the Sox obtained from San Diego in 2006. The Sox gave up David Wells in the exchange, viewing Kottaras as the catcher of the future.

Well, the future has arrived. The Sox eventually need to give Kottaras playing time in order to find out if they have a big league catcher on their hands. Though his batting average at Pawtucket last summer was hardly inspiring, Kottaras had a fantastic OBP, and his other numbers were respectable as well: 22 HR, 65 RBI, .243/.348/.456.

And 26-year-old Dusty Brown put up the following numbers at Pawtucket: 12 HR, 55 RBI, .290/.377/.471

If the Sox think they can compete with Bard and Kottaras (or possibly, yet less likely, Brown) for the first few months, they may just wait to see which catchers become available when the projected salary dumps begin next summer.

Because of the Rangers insistence on receiving Clay Buchholz in any trade, most of the current speculation has centered on the 25-year old Montero.

Yet, it's tough to get excited about Montero's big league numbers. So far, it's all been about minor league success and Major League potential, which is often the case with prospects. Based on those numbers, Montero doesn't seem like a better alternative to Kottaras, or even Brown.

Montero batted just .239 in 414 career at-bats over parts of three major league seasons, With 15 home runs, he's shown some power, as well as a plate discipline that's resulted in roughly one walk every 10 at-bats. Since he's been shuttled to and from the Majors in recent years, spending relatively little time at Double A and above, the consensus seems to be that he just needs regular playing time and consistent at-bats.

But that doesn't inspire confidence. However, there is speculation that Theo Epstein is simply trying to use Montero as leverage to bring down the Rangers demands for Saltalamacchia, or Boras' demands for Varitek.

No matter, the Sox may have a better alternative in house. To this point, Kottaras has shown more power and a higher OBP than Montero. The following illustrates that point:

Montero - .2006, between Double A and Triple A: .286, 17 HR, 75 RBIs in 117 games

Kotarras - 2008, at Pawtucket: .243/.348/.456, 22 HR, 65 RBI in 107 games

So, why trade for Montero? Perhaps this is just a negotiating tactic by Epstein, but any GM should be able to see right through it.

At this point, it doesn't appear that the Red Sox really want to trade Michael Bowden, much less Buchholz. The club has been stockpiling pitchers because they might need them; Josh Beckett has an injury history, Tim Wakefield is 42, and Brad Penny and John Smoltz both have shoulder issues. If one of them gets hurt, the Sox probably want to be able to turn to Buchholz and/or Bowden. Having options, given the number of uncertainties they have, is a wise choice.

It's for these reasons that the Sox may hold onto Buchholz and Bowden, and finally give Kottaras his shot in the Majors. At the least, it would give them a clear indication of the young catcher's potential as he splits time with Bard. And it would also buy the club time as it waits for a tanking team, with tanking revenues, to make a top flight catcher available at mid-season.

Copyright © 2009 Sean M. Kennedy. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the author’s consent.

FINALLY, JUSTICE FOR RICE

For fourteen consecutive years, Jim Rice fell short of qualifying for the Hall of Fame. But this year, Rice, along with Rickey Henderson, finally got the 75 percent voting requisite for induction (76.4%, to be exact).

It never should have taken this long.

Rice had eight seasons of 100-plus RBI, and hit .300 seven times. He slugged 382 home runs, had 2,452 hits, 1,451 RBI, and a .298 average in 2,089 games. He was clearly dominant in his era, perhaps the most dominant hitter of his time, but what he lacked was longevity.

That lack of longevity didn't hurt Twins' outfielder Kirby Puckett. Playing only 12 seasons, Puckett was inferior to Rice in every offensive category, except batting, and yet he still achieved the immortality that induction confers. Either Puckett's induction was a mistake, or Rice was unfairly shut out all these years.

While it's often said that Rice played 16 seasons in the majors, he didn't. Rice was a September call up in 1974, and had only 67 at bats in 24 games. It wasn't enough to qualify him as a rookie, and it's not enough to be considered a season. Furthermore, Rice only played in 56 games in 1989, his final season. That year Rice had just 209 at bats. To be considered for a batting title, a player must have at least 400 at bats. In a typical season, an everyday player might see as many as 600 at bats. So the reality is that Rice played just 14 seasons, and in that time he amassed absolutely phenomenal statistics.

The truth is, if Rice had just sat out those 56 games in 1989 - when his eyesight had long since failed him - he would have finished his career with a magical .300 average. I say magical because many believe that if he'd lifted his average a measly .002 points that he'd have been in years ago.

From 1975-1986 Rice averaged 29 homers, 106 RBI, 91 runs and a .303 average. During this period, Rice led all American League players in 12 different offensive categories, including home runs (350), RBI (1,276), total bases (3,670), slugging percentage (.520), runs (1,098) and hits (2,145), as well as games, at bats, extra base hits, multiple hit games, go-ahead RBI, and outfield assists.

Rice dominated his era, finishing in the top five in the MVP voting six times in an eight-year span. He won the MVP award in 1978, when he became the first American League player to collect 400 total bases since Joe Dimaggio. He led the AL in homers three times, RBI twice, total bases four times, and was an All-Star eight times. He is the only player in major league history with three consecutive seasons of 35 homers and 200 hits. He led the AL in total bases for three straight seasons, tying a record held by Ted Williams and Ty Cobb. And Rice joined Babe Ruth and Jimmy Foxx as the only players in AL history with three consecutive 39 homer, .315 average seasons. Need I say more?

Rice was often perceived as a power hitter because of those three consecutive 39 + homers seasons, and because he hit 25 or more homers seven times in a ten year span. But Rice wasn't a power hitter so much as he was a hitter – plain and simple. Between '75-'86, he collected over 200 hits four times, hit .300 or better seven times, and .290 or better nine times.

First baseman Tony Perez was considered worthy of the Hall after batting .279 with 379 home runs and 1,652 RBI over 23 seasons. He certainly had the longevity and durability, but a lifetime .279 average can qualify one for the Hall? And Perez only averaged 16 home runs and 72 RBI per season. That is not dominant.

But Rice doesn't just outshine Hall of Famers Puckett and Perez. Some would argue that it's only fair to compare players by position. For example, second basemen generally don't hold up well against outfielders in terms of offensive production. They generally get into the Hall based on their their defensive prowess and how they compare to other second basemen offensively. But for argument's sake, I think it's fair to compare Rice to other Hall of Fame players of similar offensive stature.

Rice outperformed Hall of Famer Orlando Cepeda in every offensive category; runs, hits, homers, RBI, total bases, walks, OBP, slugging, and hitting. Rice also had more homers, RBI and a higher slugging percentage than Roberto Clemente. Rice had more hits, home runs, and total bases than Joe Dimaggio. Rice had more runs, hits, homers, RBI, and total bases than Hank Greenberg.

Rice crushes Ralph Kiner in runs, hits, home runs, RBI, total bases and batting. Rice had more hits, total bases and a higher average than Eddie Mathews - not to mention a nearly identical slugging percentage and RBI total. Rice had more runs, hits, total bases and a higher average than Willie McCovey. Rice bested Johnny Mize in runs, hits, total bases, home runs and RBI.

Rice surpassed Enos Slaughter in runs, hits, total bases, home runs, RBI, slugging percentage and had a nearly identical average. Rice had more hits, total bases, RBI, and a higher average than Duke Snider. Rice had more runs, hits, total bases, and a higher average than Willie Stargell. And finally, Rice had more runs, hits, total bases, homers, and RBI than Hack Wilson.

Only nine players in Major League history have compiled as high a career batting average and as many homers as Rice. They are: Ted Williams, Babe Ruth, Mel Ott, Hank Aaron, Jimmie Foxx, Lou Gehrig, Mickey Mantle, Willie Mays and Stan Musial. Naturally, each of them is in the Hall.

Only 199 former major leaguers have been elected to the Hall of Fame. The numbers bear out the obvious; Jim Rice has deserved to be among them all along. He deserved better than the injustice of this long wait.

Despite the fact that not enough voters got it right for 14 years, the evidence is clear; Jim Rice has always been worthy and deserving of the Hall of Fame. Rightfully, this year the voters finally did him justice.

Simply put, Rice earned it.

Copyright © 2009 Sean M. Kennedy. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the author’s consent.

Red Sox Pen Now Mightier

The Red Sox' signing of former Dodger closer Takashi Saito is a savvy and interesting development.

The move bolsters the bullpen yet again, as did the additions of Ramon Ramirez, Wes Littleton and Miguel Gonzalez, earlier this offseason.

Having been the Dodgers closer for the last three seasons, Saito brings a ninth inning mentality with him, and gives the Red Sox even greater flexibility. Saito can be an eighth inning bridge to Jonathan Papelbon, or he can finish games himself, giving Papelbon an occasional, and surely needed, rest throughout the season.

Before going down with a partially torn elbow ligament last year, Saito racked up 81 saves over three seasons, including 39 in 2007 when he was an All Star.

Despite his injury, the Dodgers offered him $2 million guaranteed, plus $200K in incentives, which Saito rejected. Though he'll be 39 on Valentine's Day, Saito has been dominant in the past and the Sox expect him to regain that form this year. The Red Sox medical staff put him through extensive evaluations, and he passed them all with flying colors. For his part, Saito says he feels great and doesn't anticipate any limitations this season.

In giving Saito a one-year contract guaranteeing just $1.5 million ($2.5 million if he's on the active roster), plus a club option for 2010, the Sox chose yet another in a series of low cost options on the free agent market.

While many have described the acquisitions of Josh Bard, Brad Penny, Rocco Baldelli, John Smoltz and Saito as "low risk," that isn't necessarily so. It would be better to describe them as low cost since each of them is coming off significant injury or illness. There is a distinct possibility that some, or all, of them re-injure themselves again this year and are unable to play.

The five aforementioned players are each signed to incentive-laden one-year contracts that will cost the Red Sox a base total of $13.7 million, or $2.8 million less than the Yankees will pay the injury-prone A.J. Burnett this year. That just seems like good business sense in a down economy.

With Mark Kotsay also coming back into the fold and serving as both a backup first baseman and outfielder, Terry Francona can now carry 12 pitchers. The 12th spot was originally slated for David Aardsma, but with the addition of Saito, you have to wonder who makes the club now.

The Red Sox bullpen now consists of Jonathan Papelbon, Hideki Okajima, Manny Delcarmen, Javier Lopez, Ramon Ramirez, and Saito. Whether Justin Masterson will be in the rotation or in the pen remains to be determined. His presence gives the Sox tremendous flexibility.

And don't forget that the Sox also acquired Littleton in a trade with Texas and claimed Gonzalez from the Angels in the Rule V draft. Gonzalez has to be on the major league roster all year, or the Sox have to return him to the Angels. As of now, both pitchers remain on the 40-man roster and Epstein has said he likes their potential.

Assuming that Masterson starts the season in the pen, that leaves Aardsma, Littleton and Gonzalez as the odd men out.

One thing is for certain; the Red Sox have a lot of depth right now, and that will surely serve them well this year.

Copyright © 2008 Sean M. Kennedy. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the author’s consent.

Red Sox Still Trying to Catch Up

Free agent catcher Greg Zaun has made his feelings clear: he would love to play for the Red Sox.

"My agent has had ongoing talks with Boston and I would love to see that happen. I would also love the challenge of playing in Boston, where every day you go to the ballpark it's a meaningful game and you're fighting for something. That atmosphere, I'm telling you, there's nothing like it, and to be a part of that would be unbelievable."

However, since the Red Sox are concerned about Jason Varitek's age and offensive decline, Zaun would hardly represent an upgrade. While it's wonderful that Zaun would love to play in Boston, the Red Sox had better have a much better plan in mind; the veteran is an even greater offensive liability that Varitek.

While Varitek will be 37 on Opening Day, Zaun will be 38 at that time. And as a lifetime .251 hitter who has never hit more than 12 homers in any of his 14 seasons, Zaun is not exactly an offensive force.

Despite his age, Zaun says he still feels fresh.

"You have to understand, I spent the first eight years of my career on the bench. I'm not the kind of guy in my mid 30s who is coming off several years of catching 100 or more games a year. Don't have the wear and tear that other guys my age have. My only other hobby other than playing baseball is taking care of myself. I'm in great physical condition and I'm built to catch as much as any team wants me to."

The Orioles have been the most aggressive suitor for Zaun, but the Red Sox remain interested. It's worth noting that Josh Bard's one-year, $1.7 million deal is not guaranteed.

It makes you wonder about the Sox' inside plan. Pitchers and catchers report in just five weeks, and there is still just one catcher with any considerable big league experience on the roster. According to GM Theo Epstein, negotiations with Varitek continue and all options remain on the table.

"There's still some unfinished business," Epstein said. "Jason is still out there. As I said at the beginning of the offseason, he's been a really important guy here to this organization and by no means have we shut the door on him. There's still some unfinished business there."

And Epstein also said that the Sox remain open to the idea of a youth movement behind the plate this season, noting they are "in the pursuit of a younger catcher."

"We have the two young guys who combined to form a pretty good platoon last year at Pawtucket in George Kottaras and Dusty Brown," Epstein said. "And we brought in Josh Bard on a one-year deal, someone that we really trust to run a staff and call a game and has been a significant part of the catching solution for a good team in this league and done a nice job. We see him factoring into the equation for sure."

But does anyone really believe that the Sox will enter this season with some combination of Bard, Kottaras or Brown? I, for one, don't buy it.

Varitek has now lost all bargaining leverage due to a lack of interest on the open market. He will long regret not taking the Sox' offer of arbitration, which would have netted him at least $10 million this year. If he lowers his demands, he may still get a one-year deal, perhaps with an option.

Obtaining Miguel Montero from Arizona, or either Jarrod Saltalamacchia or Taylor Teagarden from Texas, could be costly. Both clubs continue to ask the Sox for promising young pitcher Clay Buchholz in exchange. Despite his struggles last season, the Sox clearly remain high on Buchholz, or a deal would have been consummated by now.

The Sox are obviously waiting for the price to come down and are more open to trading Michael Bowden or Daniel Bard, in particular. The Rangers are in favor of keeping Teagarden, believing he is the more promising of their three young catchers (Max Ramirez is the other). Yet, they are in need of pitching and have made no additions to a staff that had a league-worst 5.37 ERA last year.

So if a deal is to be made, expect it to be Daniel Bard for Saltalamacchia in the next couple of weeks.

POWER OUTAGE IN BOSTON

The Red Sox wanted Mark Teixeira for a variety of reasons: he's young (29); he's a Gold Glove winning first baseman; he hits for both power and average; he's a switch hitter; and he conducts himself professionally both on and off the field.

While all of these qualities are appealing, the one that attracted the Sox above all else is Teixeira's offensive ability. The truth is, the Sox didn't just want Teixeira – they needed him.

Much has been made of the Sox' desire (or need) to upgrade offensively this offseason. The loss of Manny Ramirez, and his customary 35 homers and 120 RBI, was a deficit the team needed to overcome this winter.

However, the Sox did acquire Jason Bay in the Manny trade, and Bay is no slouch.

Over his five full season in the Majors, Bay has averaged 29 homers and 95 RBI. On the other hand, over the same period, Ramirez averaged 36 homers and 117 RBI. Obviously, Manny's stats are better and that 22 RBI differential needs to be made up elsewhere.

Bay's greatest advantages are that he is younger, less expensive, and more predictable. Jason being Jason isn't associated with any bizarre or selfish behaviors. His athleticism, relative speed, and defensive abilities are also assets. And, as noted, the guy can hit.

Here's a look at the active outfielders under 32 years old with the highest OPS:


Player - Opening Day Age - OPS

Adam Dunn - 29 - .900
Jason Bay - 30 - .891
Grady Siemore - 26 - .861
Carlos Beltran - 31 - .853


Despite Bay's productivity, there is a widespread belief that the Red Sox need to bolster their offense to remain competitive in the ever more challenging AL East. The problem is, there isn't whole lot of juice elsewhere in the Sox lineup. There isn't genuine power at catcher, second, short, center, or right. And who knows what to expect from Mike Lowell and David Ortiz?

And assuming Ortiz regains his full health and power stroke, just who exactly will protect him in the batting order? Though Kevin Youkilis led the Sox with 29 homers last season, his previous high was 16 in 2007. Which is more likely this year?

Earlier this offseason, even Ortiz weighed in on the idea of the Red Sox acquiring another power bat. "You definitely need to find another guy who can produce here," the big DH said.

Ortiz was drawing attention to an obvious need; the Red Sox were 12th of 30 teams, with 173 home runs in 2008. Just one homer separated them from the middle-of-the-pack. Another power hitter would certainly improve the 2009 team.

The Sox finished third in baseball with 845 runs last year. But as a team long renowned for its power hitting, they played small ball, using their speed to manufacture runs with base hits, bunts, sacrifices, and steals.

That's the good news, and it may lead some to contend that all the concerns about not upgrading the lineup this winter are overstated.

However, outfielders Jacoby Ellsbury (9) and JD Drew (19) combined for just 28 home runs last year. Thank goodness the Sox have Bay; without him, the outfield would be plainly impotent. It's an issue that management needs to address. Even the addition of Rocco Baldelli won't change this. When healthy, he's a good hitter but not a power hitter; at his best in 2006, he hit a home run in every 23 at bats.

It's not just Ellsbury and Drew; one of the Sox' primary problems is a lack of power throughout their lineup. Despite improving on their 2007 home run total (166) last year, the Sox have otherwise been in a power decline for the past six years.

It wasn't supposed to be like this. The Sox gave up on Trot Nixon because of his declining health and offense. JD Drew was supposed to be the high priced answer, a guy who could bat fifth and add some needed pop to the lineup.

But Drew is on the wrong side of 30 and has a long history of injuries. He's a fragile as your grandmother's fine china – and a lot more expensive. After two years in Boston, the right fielder has been an utter disappointment.

Believe it or not, Drew is the highest paid player on the team. And until MVP Dustin Pedroia got his six-year deal last month, Drew also had the longest contract of any position-player on the team.

When the Sox signed Drew to a highly controversial five-year, $70 million contract after the 2006 season, it raised eyebrows for a variety of reasons:

Firstly, Drew had hit 30 homers just once, and had driven in 100 runs just once -- in different seasons. And after two years in Boston, that hasn't changed. Drew has notched a total of 30 homers and 128 RBI (64 both years) during his tenure with the Red Sox.

Secondly, before Drew signed, no Sox player had been given a contract of longer than four years by the current ownership.

And lastly, Drew's career has been marred by a tendency to injury, resulting in repeated stints on the disabled list. Unfortunately, Drew has lived up to his fragile reputation while with the Red Sox, playing in only 109 games last year. And over the course of his 10-year career, Drew has averaged just 120 games per season.

After starting strongly last year, and earning his first All Star selection, Drew cooled considerably and hit a mere .211 in 90 at-bats following the All Star break.

From the beginning, many people, myself included, wrote that signing Drew was a very expensive mistake. Apparently, we were right. The Sox are stuck with Drew for an additional three years, and we'll be watching what I've termed "the most overpaid, underachieving player" for the duration.

As a $14 million-a-year corner outfielder, Drew should be expected to hit 30 homers and drive in at least 100 runs per season; that's not too much to ask. If that were the case, Manny's bat would not be missed. However, such an expectation is nothing more than a pipe dream.

Drew is an enigma, hailed for his "perfect swing" and for allegedly being a five tool player. The truth is, he's a good fielder, throws well, and runs well. But he's never stolen more than 19 bases in any season, and that was 10 years ago. His offense, however, is grossly over-rated. And it's not just the total absence of power either: Drew is a career .284 hitter; has never hit as many as 35 doubles in a season; never totaled 300 total bases (never even 200 w/Sox); has drawn 100 walks just once; and has struck out at least 100 times in four seasons.

Over ten full seasons, Drew has averaged 19 HR and 62 RBI. Apparently, he hits a lot of solo shots. Despite this, he is one of the highest paid outfielders in the game. And it was all predicated on a pretty slim resume.

Let's face it -- he just isn't a great player. One thing's for certain; Drew has always been over-rated, and he's certainly overpaid. Simply put, it's time to stop talking about his potential. He's been in the Majors for a decade and he's now 33 years old. The Red Sox have invested superstar money in a player who clearly isn't a superstar, and never will be. At this point he is what he is; an average player with an out-sized, bloated contract.

So, the Red Sox and their fans are stuck with mediocrity for the next few years. That is, of course, unless the Red Sox are willing to eat some of his hefty salary after convincing some other team to give him more "time to develop."

Copyright © 2008 Sean M. Kennedy. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the author’s consent.

LOWE BALL

Is Derek Lowe Worth Four or Five Years, at $15 Million Per Season? In a Word; No.

Derek Lowe began his Major League career with Seattle in 1997, and came to the Red Sox later that season.

After working out of the bullpen and spot-starting from time to time over the first few years, he became a full-time stater for the Sox in 2002. He had had a career year that season, going 21-8, with a 2.58 ERA, and looked like an ace in the making.

In 2003, he posted another solid 17-7 record, behind a powerful Red Sox offense that propelled the team to 95 wins. However, his ERA leapt to a worrisome 4.47.

In his free agency year, 2004, Lowe went backward, posting a 14-12 record and a bloated 5.42 ERA. His days in Boston were numbered. Despite going 3-0 that postseason, (all clinching game wins), with a 1.86 ERA, doing his part in the Sox first World Series Championship in 86 years, Lowe's ERA had been going in the wrong direction for two consecutive seasons. And then there were all the alleged off field distractions, to boot. The Red Sox elected to part ways with Lowe without making him an offer.

Lowe landed with the Dodgers that winter, receiving a four-year, $36 million contract. Pitching in the National League, his ERA dropped considerably, averaging 3.59 over the next four years.

And as a result , Lowe and his agent, Scott Boras, are now seeking a 4-5 year deal, at an average annual salary of $15 million.

The question is whether Lowe is worth that price.

The free agent has a career 3.83 ERA as a starter, has made at least 30 starts in each of the last seven years, throwing at least 200 innings in five of them, 199 in another. With his seemingly rubber arm, he is dependable and doesn't break down. He can be counted to take the ball and compete every five days. In fact, he is one of just two Major Leaguers to have avoided the DL for the last eleven seasons (Brad Ausmus s the other). All of this makes for a good upside.

However, Lowe has never developed into an ace, much less the Dodgers ace. Though he was the Dodgers Opening Day starter in each of his first three years in LA, the distinction of staff ace went to Brad Penny, who was the more overpowering of the two. Lowe is not a dominating pitcher; he has never struck out as many as 150 batters in a season, and has won 20 games just once. He consistently allows more hits than innings pitched, and has a WHIP of 1.27 as a starter. When Lowe takes the mound, runners take the bases.

Lowe has never finished higher than third in the Cy Young voting, which he did in his best season, 2002, as a member of the Red Sox. The highlight of that season was his no-hitter against Tampa at Fenway Park, the first by a Sox pitcher since Dave Moorehead in 1965.

The 35-year-old righty, is a two time All Star, both with the Red Sox (2000 & 2002). He finished second in wins in the AL in 2002 (21), and finished tied for first in the NL with 16 wins in 2006 – not a great year for NL pitchers.

In short, Lowe is a good, solid, reliable pitcher. However, he is not a great pitcher. He's had exactly one great season in his career, and that was six years ago. Despite this reality, he is seeking a contract worthy of a great pitcher, one that will take him through age 39 or 40. Perhaps that's why he's still unemployed as of New Year's Day. And the free agent won't likely find any takers at that price, or that many years.

The Mets reportedly offered a three-year deal, worth $36 million, which Lowe and Boras balked at. This would maintain Lowe's average annual salary at $9 million, and seems to be reasonable for a pitcher of Lowe's caliber.

The problem is the out of line contracts given to average, if not underwhelming, pitchers like Carlos Silva of Seattle (four years, averaging $12 mil annually) and Vicente Padilla of Texas (three years, averaging more than $11 mil annually) etc. These kinds of contracts, given to mediocre pitchers, have completely distorted the market. Lowe isn't getting better; he's getting older. Perhaps he's only worth $10 million per season, especially in a recessionary period like the one we're in.

Undoubtedly, Lowe is more dependable and predictable than AJ Bunett, who was granted an absurd five-year, $82.5 million pact by the yankees. What are the odds that he'll fulfill that obligation? They're certainly not good, and the Yankees investment will likely come back to haunt them in the next couple of years. Once again, that is a contract that distorts the market. Baseball executives realize this, and that's why Lowe may not find a better offer than the one the Mets have given him. And he doesn't deserve better.

If the Red Sox could get Lowe at three years, $30 million, they just might bite. A longer contract for a 35-year-old pitcher would be out of character for the Sox, as would more money for one who is good, but not great.

Lowe says he has finally matured and is a different person than the one who left Boston following the 2004 season.

Then again, there was his 2005 affair with Fox Sports anchor Carolyn Hughes, leading to a divorce from his then-wife Trinka, with whom he has two children. That was after he left the Red Sox. Well, at least the affair led to a marriage between Lowe and Hughes just weeks ago.

Who knows if the off-field distractions will ever end for Lowe? But we do know that he is not worth the contract he is seeking, and the Red Sox are better off sitting on the sidelines and observing these negotiations as they play out.

Copyright © 2008 Sean M. Kennedy. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the author’s consent.

THE WORLD SERIES IS WON IN OCTOBER - NOT DECEMBER

It's a loss that surely pains Red Sox fans, as it may for years to come. And it's a loss that certainly perplexes millions of baseball fans in general. After clearing payroll over the course of the past year, the Red Sox had somewhere between $40-$60 million to spend this winter alone.

In the most basic terms, the Red Sox lost out on Mark Texiera because they wouldn't offer a 10-year contract, or enter into a protracted bidding war.

The Sox, as always, place a value on a player and refuse to go above it. Naturally, they start negotiations below that number, giving them room to move up to, but not above, it. They have generally negotiated in a rational and unemotional manner during the Theo Epstein era. The exceptions may be the four-year, $36 million deal for Julio Lugo, and the five-year, $70 million deal given to JD Drew. Neither player was worth their contract, and the Red Sox overbid against only themselves in both cases.

Going beyond a player's perceived value is a violation of organizational philosophy.

The Red Sox have largely adhered to that philosophy since the John Henry ownership/management group bought the Red Sox in December, 2001. The team is very leery of long term deals, as evidenced by the fact that the longest pacts granted over the past seven years are the six-year deals given to 26-year-old Daisuke Matsuzaka and 25-year-old Dustin Pedroia.

Though he was seeking a 10-year contract that would have reached $220 million with vesting options, Teixeira eventually settled on an eight-year deal with the Yankees. And though the Red Sox truly desired the slugging first baseman, a 10-year deal was out of the question from the start. In fact, Henry recently expressed concern about a contract of eight years or more.

“We all have limits,” he said. “Eight years is a very long time in baseball and everywhere else.”

Henry also said the amount the Red Sox are willing to spend on a free agent “depends on both” the economy and the player being sought.

“Baseball as a whole has not yet been hit by the financial crisis, but it will,” Henry noted. “The degree is in question and won’t be answered for a while.”

Apparently the Yankees don’t recognize this, or don’t agree. Sometimes it seems as if they operate in their own separate financial universe.

So far this winter, the Yankees’ spending spree amounts to $423.5 million — more than every other team in baseball combined. That amount, spent on just three free agents (CC Sabathia, AJ Burnett and Mark Teixeira), is more than the value of 16 of Major League Baseball’s 30 teams. Chew on that for a while.

It also means that the four highest paid players in the game are now on the Yankees' roster.

In fact, the Yankees will have nine players being paid $13 million or more in 2009. Those nine players – Mark Teixeira, CC Sabathia, Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter, A.J. Burnett, Jorge Posada, Mariano Rivera, Hideki Matsui and Johnny Damon – combine for $159.1 million, more than the payroll of any other team. For the record, all teams have 25-man rosters.

But none of this means the Yankees will win the AL East or the Pennant, much less the World Series. They've gone this route for years, and signing the most highly touted and expensive free agents hasn't served them very well in this decade.

Mike Mussina, Jason Giambi, Jose Contreras, Hideki Matsui, Jaret Wright, Carl Pavano, Gary Sheffield, A-Rod, and Johnny Damon were all high priced free agents who were supposed to be the lynchpins to the Yankees 27th World Series championship. Obviously, it hasn't worked out as they all had intended.

Not everyone responds well to the pressure of playing in New York, to the intense media and fan scrutiny, or to the expectations of the Steinbrenners. It didn't sit well with Hideki Irabu, Randy Johnson, Javier Vazquez, or Jose Contreras.

The Yankees have had the best team in baseball, on paper, for most of this decade, and they have just one World Series title in this period to speak for it. That's because it's tough to repeat as champions in baseball. Despite the inequities in small and large markets, payrolls, and the ability to attract free agents, baseball has surprising parity, compared with other sports.

Let's put it in perspective:

- Over the past 10 years, eight different teams have won the World Series. In all, 15 teams made the World Series - half of the teams in baseball.

- Over the past 20 years, 14 different teams have won the World Series. In all, 22 teams made the World Series - two-thirds of the teams in baseball.

- Over the last 30 years, 20 different teams have won the World Series, and only four - Cubs, Mariners, Rangers and the Expos/Nationals - have failed to get there.

And by comparison:

- Only 14 teams have won the Super Bowl over the last 30 years.
- Only 14 different men have won Wimbledon over the last 30 years.
- Only 13 teams have won the Stanley Cup over the last 30 years.
- Only nine teams have won an NBA title over the last 30 years.

So, baseball has more parity than many might think, and only one team with a payroll north of $100 million has ever won the World Series – the Boston Red Sox, twice.

The reality is that games are won on the field, during the summer and fall; not in executive offices during the winter.

The Red Sox won't, and can't, make the same sort of free agent market splash as the Yankees this offseason. And they might not next winter either.

They will obtain a catcher, a utility infielder, a fourth outfielder, and perhaps another starting pitcher (Brad Penny, Ben Sheets or John Smoltz on a short term deal). But it isn't likely that any of them will be high priced, superstar free agents, or true difference makers. And a regrettable trade may have to be executed, particularly for a catcher (Miguel Monterro or perhaps Chris Iannetta).

Naturally, the Red Sox will never abandon free agents all together, not even the high priced ones. The upside is that they only cost money, not the highly prized players/prospects lost in trades.

However, the Sox will remain focused on a long term plan, protect their top prospects, and continue trying to improve from within through the draft and player development – the old fashioned way.

In times like these, it may be a requisite.

Copyright © 2008 Sean M. Kennedy. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the author’s consent.

The Empire Strikes Back

If you’re a Yankees fan, you’ve got to be thrilled with the Bombers’ latest blockbuster signing. And you surely love their management team; they always get their man. Nothing stands in their way. They have the benefit of being financially loaded, which has lead to a roster equally loaded with high-powered, highly paid stars over the years.

What has to be most appealing to the Yankees and their fans is this: they stuck it to the Red Sox by stealthily striking at the last moment, stealing Boston’s free agent prize.

The Yankees quiet interest in Teixeira grew when the Red Sox couldn’t seal the deal in Dallas, and when the Angels announced that they had pulled out of the Teixeira sweepstakes. Apparently, Teixeira favored the Yankees all along and he conveyed that to them this week. And the Yankees were willing and able to trump the Red Sox $170 million offer. What's more, the first baseman also received a $5 million signing bonus, bringing the contract’s full value to $185 million.

However, it should be noted that over the last eight years the Yankees ability to attract the most coveted free agents hasn’t served them very well: Hideki Irabu, Jason Giambi, Jose Contreras, Javier Vazquez, Randy Johnson, Hideki Matsui, Jaret Wright, Carl Pavano, Kevin Brown, Kei Igawa, A-Rod, and Johnny Damon were all supposed to be key pieces to a championship, and even a dynasty. Obviously, it hasn’t worked out like that. Many of them were flat-out busts.

The Yanks free agent bonanza this offseason will cost them their first, second and third-round draft picks, further retarding a player development system that was once the best in the major leagues.

As for the Red Sox, while some may expect them to redirect their focus toward another free agent slugger, the question is who? It's hard to imagine the Sox contemplating any of the second tier guys, such as Milton Bradley, Adam Dunn, Bobby Abreau, or Pat Burrell, who are all corner outfielders. That's simply not their need at this time. And Jason Giambi is a soon-to-be 38-year-old first baseman/DH with defensive liabilities.

The reality is that the Sox don't need a corner outfielder or a first baseman. Teixeira was the most unique player available this winter, and the Red Sox were willing to reconstitute their roster to obtain him. He was perfect for the Sox due to his age (29), plate discipline (more walks than Ks last year), switch-hitting ability, and defensive skill (two Gold Gloves).

Now the Red Sox will have to burnish their relationship with Mike Lowell, who probably came to feel unwanted as this saga unfolded. After leaving more than $12 million dollars on the table from the Phillies last offseason (in the form of a guaranteed fourth year, which the Red Sox wouldn't match), you have to wonder if he is now regretting that decision.

The absence of Teixeira makes the re-signing of Jason Varitek less likely at this point. The Sox need offense from all positions now, in a way they wouldn't have with Teixeira in the order. Now the Sox need an offensive-oriented catcher, as well as a utility infielder and fourth outfielder that can hit. With Teixeira, the Sox would have also felt more comfortable with letting Jed Lowrie mature and develop. There would have been less pressure on the young shortstop, and if he hit .270, with six to eight homers, it would have been acceptable. Is that the case now?

The Red Sox need offense, and Teixeira would have been a difference maker. Their loss is the Yankees' gain. That's a double-whammy.

The offseason has developed into its own unique theater between the Red Sox and Yankees. At this point, all the Yankees have won is the PR battle and the headlines. Whether that translates into victories on the field remains to be seen.

On paper, at least, the Yankees have gotten better, while the Red Sox have largely remained the same to this point. They may still improve themselves in some way, or ways, but nothing will likely compare to the impact Teixeira would have had on the batting order. Offensively, the Sox may only be able to improve marginally now. If they could find a way to land an ace like Roy Oswalt or Jake Peavy, that would supplant the loss of Teixeira. But such an acquisition is probably just a pipe dream.

One thing's for certain in the highly competitive AL East; if you're not getting better, you're getting worse.

Copyright © 2008 Sean M. Kennedy. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the author’s consent.

THE ERROR OF THEIR WAYS

Scott Boras and Mark Teixeira may have finally overplayed their hand.

First, Red Sox owner John Henry said that the Red Sox "are not going to be a factor" in signing the free agent first baseman. And now the Angels have publicly, perhaps decisively, removed themselves from the bidding by withdrawing their reported eight-year, $160 million offer. Angels GM Tony Reagins called the offer both "fair" and "substantial." It was also final. And now it's evidently off the table.

Having the Red Sox and Angels drop out of the running for your client is not beneficial. The fact that two of the richest, big-market teams in baseball have withdraw from negotiations has only weakened Boras's and Teixeira's bargaining power and leverage.

However, I'm inclined to believe that the Red Sox are not truly out of this — and the Angels retreat will surely help them. Apparently the executives in Anaheim surmised that Teixeira really does want to play for an eastern team after all.

That leaves the Orioles and their seven-year, $140 million offer, plus the Nationals and their eight-year, $160 million dollar offer.

The Yankees initial offer has been pulled from the table, and Hal Steinbrenner says the team has no intention of getting further involved. Sure, this could merely be a decoy before they swoop in with a massive offer that outsizes all the others. But the Yanks have already dropped nearly a quarter-billion dollars on just two pitchers this offseason. No matter what anyone is inclined to believe, they are not immune to a crumbling economy.

That leaves the Red Sox, whose offer has been reported as being at least $170 over eight years. The only team with two World Series titles and four ALCS appearances in the past six years made the biggest offer, and it still wasn't enough. It makes you wonder, what else would it take to get the deal done? A partial ownership stake in the team?

These negotiations have turned quite unsavory. Boras's less-than-stellar reputation amongst fans and baseball executives has likely declined even further. The strange thing is that Teixeira, whose rep had been rock solid and respectable to this point, will likely be tainted as well.

When the economy is tanking and so many Americans are laid off, evicted, foreclosed on, or otherwise suffering, having some guy insist that $170 million just isn't enough sounds disgusting, selfish and out-of-touch. Let's face it, this guy will collect at least $20 million annually to play baseball for seven months a year.

This is Christmastime, and for Mr. Teixeira it really is a "Wonderful Life."

Perhaps, hopefully, his guardian angel will teach him the error of his ways.

Copyright © 2008 Sean M. Kennedy. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the author’s consent.

Red Sox and Teixeira Divorced Before the Marriage?

It seems the Red Sox were quite serious and determined in their pursuit of free agent Mark Teixeira. After all, the top brass flew to Texas to meet with the highly prized first baseman.

When John Henry, Larry Luchino, and Theo Epstein arrive in mass to present a reported eight-year, $184 million offer ($23 million annually), it's clear that they are sincere and they mean business. But, apparently, it was not the highest bid.

It seems there was a high stakes of chicken going on between the Red Sox brass and the Teixeira/Boras camp. And the Red Sox blinked. It must have caught Teixeira off guard. I can't help but wonder if he is, or will be, angry with Boras. Taking the Red Sox out of any negotiation certainly doesn't help a player's bargaining leverage.

In the end, what's the difference between $180 million and $190 million? Once you reach a certain level of wealth, doesn't a few million just cease to matter? Not that I would know, but I can't imagine it affects the size of the house you live in, the boat you cruise around on, or the fleet of cars you drive.

A-Rod should have been Teixeira's example; you can take the highest offer from a bad team (Texas) and still end up miserable. No one likes continually losing games; the season loses all significance very quickly. For both the Orioles and Nationals -- the Red Sox primary bidding competitors -- the 2009 season is likely already over. The Nats lost a league-worst 102 games last season. The O's haven't had a winning season in 12 years. Wouldn't $23 million per year with the Red Sox be superior to even $25 million per with either of those two teams?

The reality is, Boras doesn't have to play for a bad team and suffer through years of losing seasons. Naturally, he wants his client to go to the highest bidder since he directly benefits as a result. That seems like a conflict of interest, in my view.

When asked what Teixeira was looking for in a team, Boras had this to say:

"The club's ability to win and win in the long term. Commitment by the owners, long term, to the franchise being successful. Where they play, the city they're in. He's played in both leagues. He's had an opportunity to make an analysis of what's best for he and his family. And, of course, the economics too."

It all sounds like so much bullshit now -- except for the part about the "economics."

However, this may not yet be over for the Sox and Teixeira. At least Teixeira got the straight talk from the Sox brass, without Boras as the filter. They were clearly and accurately represented and Teixeira surely knows how much they admire and covet him.

A-Rod was said to be furious with Boras for his horrible advice a year ago. He ended up going back to the Yankees and negotiating his own deal with his tail between his legs. And Gary Sheffield had a rather contentious parting with Boras when he felt that he was poorly represented, as well.

I don't know if that will happen again this time, but I think that Boras has once again lost some of his remaining luster. Other players are watching, and they will remember this no matter how it eventually turns out.

Will Red Sox Feel the Economic Pinch?

The Red Sox have seen a number salaries come off the books this winter, giving them as much as $40 million-$60 million to spend on free agents, namely Mark Teixeira.

In between the end of 2007 and the start of 2008, the club cut payroll by roughly $15 million. And since the middle of this year, Theo Epstein has cut roughly an additional $40 million in the contracts of Manny Ramirez, Curt Schilling, Coco Crisp, Jason Varitek, Paul Byrd, Mark Kotsay, Sean Casey and Mike Timlin, etc.

This would allow the Sox to pay Teixeira in excess of $20 million annually and still come in at, or below, last year's payroll. And if the Sox are able to deal Mike Lowell and Julio Lugo as well, there would be even more savings.

However, in the midst all the speculation about the Red Sox offer to Teixeira (rumored to be eight-years and at least $160 million), here's something to consider:

In November, Red Sox officials froze ticket prices for the first time since baseball’s bitter work stoppage in 1994-95, signaling their concerns about the economy and the willingness of fans to continually shell out for the most expensive tickets in baseball. Perhaps these officials recognize that the longest sellout streak in the history of major league baseball could come to an abrupt end in 2009.

The warning signs are clear.

Close to 2,000 seats for the final two American League Championship Series games at Fenway Park went unclaimed online at face value.

National television ratings for the 2008 Major League Baseball regular season were down for FOX, ESPN, and TBS, with declines posted at the regional level, as well. The declines weren't isolated to just the smaller markets either. Even the vaunted Red Sox, and their network, were affected.

Though the Red Sox drew more than 3 million fans for the first time in their history last season, NESN’s ratings for Red Sox games dropped by roughly 20 percent, which will have an affect on the network’s advertising rates.

I'm sure John Henry, like most other owners, is taking all of this into consideration, and perhaps that's why the Hot Stove has been so cool so far this off-season. Will families finally decide that $250 for a family of four at Fenway Park is too expensive?

One GM said the following to Peter Gammons during the Winter Meetings in Las Vegas:

"I believe that the economy is going to have a much greater impact on the baseball industry than most of those people wandering the halls of the Bellagio realize. I believe that if one manages one's payroll, there will be some very attractive, impactful players available come June and July because their teams have to deal with economic realities. So if some big-market teams lose out on certain players now, they can wait and add significantly during the season if they have the capital."

It's a strategy that many teams are surely pondering right now.

Yanks Signings Reek of Desperation

After missing the playoffs for the first time in 13 years, the Yankees appear desperate.

First, they gave CC Sabathia—listed by the Brewers as 311 pounds—the largest-ever contract for a pitcher. And then they gave AJ Burnett—who has been on the disabled list nine times since 2000 -- a five-year contract.

It’s hard to understand why the Yanks gave Sabathia an out clause after just three years. What’s in it for them? If he’s successful, he’ll simply opt out for a longer, richer deal. And if he hates NYC, its fans, its media, and the pressure-cooker environment, he’ll also opt out. But if he’s injured, or otherwise a bust, the Yanks are on the hook for the whole seven years.

I always believed that any talk of the Red Sox signing Burnett was nothing more than a smoke screen. His injury history is a virtual red flag. At 32, he has won more than 12 games exactly once and made more than 30 starts just twice. It’s hardly a coincidence that his two best seasons came when he was either entering the final year of a long-term deal or entering a year in which he could opt out of a contract. His injury history and lack of motivation were more than enough reason for any team not to grant him a five-year, $82.5 million deal. But these are the uber-wealthy New York Yankees. And they are clearly desperate.

They are opening a new ballpark this spring, and they are a team that has always used marquee names to sell seats. They need to do that now more than ever. All that new construction means that there are rather large bills to pay. Yet the team just committed more than $243 million to just two pitchers in the span of just 48 hours. Or, put another way, they're on the hook for nearly a quarter-of-a-billion dollars. Wow. They must have their own money printing machine in the Bronx. Perhaps the most striking aspect is that these two players will only take the field every five days.

So far, the 28-year-old Sabathia has proven reliable, making at least 30 starts in all but one of his eight seasons. But how long that trend will last is anybody's guess. Perhaps some of the concern is overstated. Prior to 2007, the huge righty had thrown 200+ innings just once (2002). However, over the last two seasons, Sabathia has tossed a whopping 494 innings; that's the core of the concern. And it's not just the stress on his left shoulder and elbow, either. Scouts wonder how his knees will hold up under the stress of his 300-pound mass. That's anybody's guess. Though you can train muscles to become stronger, the same cannot be said for knee joints. Daisuke Matsuzka's knees are just as strong, and they're only supporting 185 pounds. You can't change the inherent design, or limitations, of the human knee structure.

Even as the Yankees doled out $161 million to Sabathia, there were plentiful cautionary tales for them to have considered.

Long-term contracts for pitchers are generally considered risky by baseball executives, and seven years is one hell of a commitment. But when it comes to $100 million deals, teams are simply flirting with disaster. Prior to this week, there had been only four $100 million contracts for pitchers, all of whom have been plagued by injuries, ineffectiveness or both.

Kevin Brown got a seven-year, $105 million deal from the Dodgers before the 1999 season. For their investment, the Doggers got 58 wins and 32 losses over five years. That prompted them to deal the disappointing Brown to the Yankees, for whom he went 14-13 in two years. That amounts to a 72-45 record over seven seasons, or roughly ten wins per year. Can you say bust?

The Rockies gave Mike Hampton an eight-year, $121 million deal before the 2001 season. For their money, the Rox got 21 wins and 28 losses. That had to hurt. Speaking of hurt, Hampton missed the entire 2006 and 2007 seasons and was slowed by injuries in other seasons, as well. Colorado gave up on Hampton, shipping him to Atlanta, where he proceeded to go 35-24. For the record, Hampton recorded 56 wins and 52 losses over the span of his monster pact. Put that one in the "bad investment" column.

Barry Zito won the 2002 AL Cy Young award with the A's, which got him a seven-year, $126 million pact from the Giants after the 2006 season. In return for this largesse, Zito has gone 21-30 in two highly disappointing seasons in San Francisco.

Finally, last winter, the Mets gave ace lefty Johan Santana a six-year, $137.5 million contract. After going 16-7 with a 2.53 ERA this year, he is the only one who has panned out -- so far.

None of the four previous $100 million pitchers -- Brown, Hampton, Zito or Santana -- has pitched in the playoffs for the team he signed with. In fact, none of the teams that have signed a pitcher to a nine-figure deal has made the playoffs while that pitcher has been on their roster.

However, the Yankees were unfazed, offering Sabathia an initial six-year, $140 million pact. Yet, Sabathia was also unfazed; he ignored it. Though the offer was one-year and $40 million better than the Brewers' offer -- the only other offer -- he wouldn't bite. He really wanted to go home to play on the West Coast and, more specifically, to play in the National League, where he could hit. That's old school. Yet, for all their talk, the Angles, Dodgers, and Giants never even made formal offers.

More determined than ever, the Yankees continued bidding against themselves, and raising the stakes. With only two offers to choose from, and $40 million separating them, Sabathia took the offer he couldn't refuse -- along with his three-year out clause. The Yankees got suckered.

And when they signed AJ Burnett to a guaranteed five-year, $82.5 million deal two days later, they got suckered again. But they did it to themselves.

Desperate times call for desperate measures.

Prediction: Red Sox Will Nab Teixeira

ESPN is reporting that the Nationals have offered Mark Teixeira an 8-year, $160 million contract.

At the same time, SI.com is reporting that, “The Red Sox are one of the most aggressive pursuers of Teixeira, with several executives predicting he may wind up there.”

The Nationals’ offer sets the bar for Teixeira’s services. Will the Sox have to offer more money and/or years, or does playing in Boston, for a winning team, with very a passionate fan base mean more than playing near his hometown in Maryland?

Naturally Scott Boras will try to draw this out as long as he can. However, Teixeira has said he would like a resolution by Christmas.

The question is, now that the Angels have lost out on CC Sabathia, will they be all the more motivated to retain Teixeira? Could they swoop in with an overwhelming offer? The LA Times says the Angels are reluctant to go past seven years for Teixeira. And though they still need more pitching, the Yankees can never be discounted.

However, unfortunately for the Angels, Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports reports that two major-league sources said Teixeira would prefer to be on the East Coast for family reasons. With that in mind, the Nationals and Orioles are pushing hard to bring Teixeira back to the Maryland area.

Last night, Rosenthal reported that, according to a major-league source, the Red Sox are making progress in their quest to sign Teixeira. “Headway was being made earlier today,” the source said. And a rival general manager whose plans could be affected by the Red Sox’s addition of Teixeira also indicated that a deal was getting closer.

Teixeira is seeking a 10-year contract for at least $20 million per season. The Red Sox preference would be to sign him to a deal between six and eight years.

The free-agent first baseman will be 29 on April 11, coinciding with the opening week of the 2009 season. By all indications, he’s a solid long-term investment. Eight years seems like a reasonable contract-length for a player of Teixeira’s age and ability. But if the Sox are pushed to 10 years, they would likely deem it acceptable. They will do whatever it takes to get it done. Teixeira is the big fish they’re determined not to let slip away.

Having never hit fewer than 26 homers in his six major-league seasons, Teixeira certainly seems like a better long-term investment than Sabathia. Paying astronomical money to a guy who plays every day makes more sense than guaranteeing it to one who plays every five days, and who has weight issues. Questions about his long term durability will continue to dog Sabathia for at least the next couple of years.

Teixeira remains the hottest commodity on the free agent market because he’s been durable, injury-free, and highly productive. Over six full seasons, his career stat line looks like this: .290 average, .919 OPS, 203 HR, 676 RBI

Last season, split between the Braves and Angels, Teixeira hit .308, with 33 home runs and 121 RBI. He’s proven himself in both leagues. He is an All Star, a two-time Gold Glove winner, and a two-time Silver Slugger winner.

Without question, Teixeira is a very solid hitter and a bona fide slugger; he is one of just five players in Major League history to hit at least 100 home runs in his first three seasons.

For these reasons, he has been described as the “apple of Theo Epstein’s eye.” This is why the Red Sox will not fail in their effort to bring home their single highest priority this offseason.

CRISP/RAMIREZ DEAL IS THE LYNCHPIN FOR NEXT DEAL

In a perfect world, Theo Epstein would have preferred to see where Mark Texiera lands in the free agency process before trading Coco Crisp. But, knowing Scott Boras' tactics and game-plan, the final outcome may not be decided until after the new year.

That would leave the Sox little time to address other issues. And the 25-or-so other teams not involved in the Texiera bidding won't be waiting around to act; they'll be busy addressing their own needs. As a result, critical pieces will be coming off the table in short order. So, Epstein felt compelled to act.

The conventional wisdom says that the acquisition of Ramon Ramirez means that Justin Masterson is headed into the Red Sox rotation. The speculation is that Ramirez will fill the spot otherwise held by Masterson in the bullpen. But, there is another possibility.

The acquisition of Ramirez may well be a precursor to a trade with Texas for a catcher. In any such deal, the Sox will likely be compelled to trade a young pitcher, generally anticipated to be either Clay Buchholz or Michael Bowden.

But it shouldn't be the least bit surprising if Masterson is the pitcher involved in any such deal. In that event, the Ramirez/Crisp deal takes on a different significance. After showing that he can start or come out of the pen, and showing a steely confidence as a rookie in high pressure playoff situations, Masterson's value has skyrocketed. Lots of teams would like to have him on their roster right now.

It all comes down to which young pitcher the Sox value more -- Buchholz or Masterson -- and who they think has greater Major League potential and value -- as a starter. Some scouts have said that they don't think that Masterson's arm angle makes him an ideal starter; they believe he'll eventually begin to break down.

Bowden has just one Major League start, so he's a completely unproven commodity. It's hard to imagine Texas agreeing to take him over Buchholz, who's already thrown a no-hitter in the Bigs, or Masterson. Yet, scouts say Bowden, who is presently projecting as a solid third starter at the Major League level, has a "top of the rotation ceiling."

It's said that pitching wins championships, but right now quality catching is much harder to find. To land either Jarrod Saltalamacchia or Taylor Teagarden, the Sox will have to part with a promising young pitcher. Thank goodness they've got three of them on hand.

Lugo for D-Train or Robertson?

A Boston/Detroit Swap Would Make Sense For Both Teams

After two years of waiting for their investment to finally pay off, the Red Sox are clearly hoping to find a taker for the highly disappointing, and highly overpaid, Julio Lugo.

The shortstop has been a liability both in the field and at the plate during his tenure with the Red Sox.

Defensively, Lugo has displayed little of the athleticism and range that prompted Theo Epstein to sign him to a four-year, $36 million contract two years ago. Lugo made 16 errors in just 81 games this past season, after making 19 errors in 145 games in 2007. Only six Major League shortstops made more errors than Lugo this year, but no one made so many in so few chances (292). In fact, no one else was even close.

But fielding isn't the only aspect of the game in which Lugo has been an abject failure. After being obtained by the Dodgers in a deadline trade with the Rays in 2006, the light-hitting infielder batted just .219. It wasn't a fluke; Lugo followed that by hitting just .237 in his first season with the Red Sox, before raising his average to .268 in limited action this year.

Ever the rally killer, Lugo (.139) was the worst hitter in baseball with runners in scoring position this year. To make matters worse for the Sox, Jason Varitek (.179) was fifth.

Yet Lugo, who just turned 33 today, may still have value in a salary-swap trade.

The Tigers are considering a deal with the Sox that would send either Nate Robertson (2 years, $17 million remaining) or Dontrelle Willis (2 years, $22 million remaining) to Boston in exchange for Lugo. However, some money issues are said to need resolution. With 2 years and $18 million remaining on Lugo's contract, the stickler could be this; a $9M option for 2011 that vests with 2,400 plate appearances from 2007-2010, and 600 plate appearances in 2010.

However, since Lugo had just 831 at-bats over the past two years, such an issue doesn’t seem to be of great concern. And going forward, limiting his plate appearances seems to be a mere formality. One of Lugo’s major problems is the fact that he can’t hit. That would likely move him to the bottom of anyone’s order, guaranteeing fewer plate appearances. It would be highly unlikely that any player could reach 600 ABs batting 8th or 9th. Furthermore, a team could sit Lugo in the final weeks of the 2010 season to limit his at bat’s and assure less than 600 plate appearances. This would prevent the option from kicking in.

Willis, who turns 27 in January, was 0-2 with a 9.38 ERA in just eight games with Detroit this year. After trading for what they expected to be a top of the rotation pitcher, the stunned Tigers quickly demoted the floundering lefty to the Minors on June 10. He returned to make three September starts, going 0-1 with a 8.53 ERA.

The 31-year-old Robertson was 7-11 with a 6.35 ERA in 32 games (28 starts) with Detroit. Also a southpaw, he recorded 108 strikeouts and issued 62 walks over 168 2/3 innings.

The Red Sox would acquire either pitcher with the hope that John Farrell, and a change of scenery, could somehow straighten him out. Willis, though possessing the fatter contract, would still seem to be the better value. Not only is he more than four years younger than Robertson, he also won 22 games for he Marlins in 2005. And prior to this year, Willis had averaged nearly 14 wins and a 3.78 ERA over the five previous seasons.

On the other hand, since becoming a full-time starter in 2004, Robertson has had just one winning season, to go along with a 4.87 ERA.

Naturally, there are risks with both pitchers, and the Red Sox would surely be concerned about the long-term health of Willis. But Lugo has played his way out of Boston and has a prohibitive contract for a bench warmer. If not for the possibility of swapping two equally bad contracts, the Red Sox would likely have to eat as much as two-thirds of Lugo's remaining pact while potentially settling for little more than a mid-level prospect in return. That won't help in 2009, if at all.

The Sox would be better served to take a flier on Willis than to let Lugo play behind Jed Lowrie, or pay him to play for the opposition. The Tigers need a shortstop, and considering the similarity of the contracts in play, they would assume no more risk than they already face at present.

Copyright © 2008 Sean M. Kennedy. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the author’s consent.

SOX NEED AN IMPACT BAT

Even David Ortiz says the Red Sox need another power bat. "You definitely need to find another guy who can produce here," the Sox resident slugger said recently.

Mark Teixeira is the obvious No. 1 choice, but he will be had at great cost. And even if the Sox have a "sky's the limit" mentality in pursuing him, as a free agent, Teixeira has the privilege of going wherever he wants. The player has all the power in this instance.

Whoever is targeted, it's clear that the Sox need more thump in the lineup.

Kevin Youkilis had a career year and cracked 29 homers, 13 more than his previous best in 2007. And Mike Lowell, though on the disabled list twice and playing in just 113 games as a result, still hit 17 homers. The third baseman says his rehab is going well, and that he feels pain free for the first time in quite a while.

Doctors were pleased to see that his hip was in better condition than they had originally anticipated and called his surgery a complete success. He is expected to be fully recovered and ready for spring training. A healthy Lowell could likely be counted on for at least 20 homers next season.

However, the other side of the coin is that Lowell will turn 35 before spring training begins, and there's no guarantee that he'll recover quickly, or fully, at his age. He will remain a question mark until he proves otherwise.

There is a total power outage at shortstop; Julio Lugo and Jed Lowrie combined for a whopping three home runs this year—hold your hats, everyone! And the Sox also lack power in the outfield. Jason Bay is the only bona fide power hitter in the bunch, averaging 29 homers over the past five seasons. In fact, Bay has hit less than 25 homers just once in that span (21 in 2007).

For the 2008 season, the Bill James Handbook projected that Jacoby Ellsbury would hit six home runs. The light-hitting center fielder ended up surpassing the projection, barely, by hitting nine. No one in baseball foresees Ellsbury developing into a power hitter, and a 15-homer season would surpass all reasonable expectations. He is a base-stealer, not a power threat.

Coco Crisp, whose value is higher than at any time since he came to the Red Sox, hit seven homers and will likely be traded. J.D. Drew never was, and never will be, a power hitter. Drew hit just 19 jacks in 2008, and 11 the previous year.

The four current Red Sox outfielders accounted for 66 home runs last year—an average of 16.5 apiece. Thank goodness for Bay; excluding him, the remaining three averaged just 11.7 apiece. That's obviously pretty weak.

The Red Sox were 12th of 30 teams, with 173 home runs in 2008. Just one homer separated them from the middle-of-the-pack. So another power hitter would certainly improve the 2009 team. The Sox were good at manufacturing runs this year through bunting, sacrificing, stealing, and hitting; they finished third in baseball with 845 runs.

But there's no doubt that the addition of Teixeira would spark the offense and perhaps get the Sox over the hump they simply couldn't vault this year. After Tex and Manny Ramirez, the ranks of good free agent power bats gets pretty thin.

Adam Dunn has hit 40 or more homers in five straight seasons, and drawn 100 walks or more walks in four straight seasons. But he strikes out mercilessly, can't hit for average, and plays poor defense. That's not the type of player the Sox covet.

There are older outfielders that the Sox probably wouldn't invest in, such as Moises Alou (42), Luis Gonzalez (41), and Garret Anderson (37). And the free agent ranks are filled with re-treads and washed-up or past-their-prime players like Cliff Floyd, Jay Payton, and Trot Nixon, all of whom have already played in Boston.

Yes, there are more productive, and more expensive, free agents, such as Pat Burrell and Bobby Abreu, but it doesn't seem the Sox would follow such a path.

So, a trade would seem more likely, with Crisp and the underwhelming Lugo being available. But the question is, who else? All teams will be interested in the Sox young and deep pitching talent, such as Clay Buchholz, Justin Masterson, and Michael Bowden. To get Teixeira, a true impact bat, will only cost dollars. Getting an impact bat via trade will cost young players, as well as dollars.

It's the Sox move.

Copyright © 2008 Sean M. Kennedy. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the author’s consent.