Thursday, April 11, 2019

How Much do Home Runs Really Matter to Red Sox?



The Red Sox have long been viewed a power hitting organization, perhaps due to the confines of Fenway Park. For decades, the Sox constructed a roster of sluggers and rarely stole bases. In short, they’ve never really been a “small ball” club.

Yet, while 18 MLB teams have hit at least 240 home runs in a single season, the Red Sox are not one of them. The 2003 team set a club record with 238.

In fact, the Sox haven't really lived up to their reputation as a power-hitting team in this century, belting at least 200 homers in just seven of 19 seasons. Yet, home runs only matter if you win games.

So what’s the Red Sox' power output been worth? How was their record reflected in the total number of home runs they hit each year this century?

YEAR - HR - Wins
2018 - 208 - 108 (World Series Champions)
2017 - 168 - 93
2016 - 208 -93
2015 - 161 - 78
2014 - 123 - 71
2013 - 178 - 97 (World Series Champions)
2012 - 165 - 69
2011 - 203 - 90
2010 - 211 - 89
2009 - 212 - 95
2008 - 173 - 95
2007 - 166 - 96 (World Series Champions)
2006 - 192 - 86
2005 - 199 - 95
2004 - 222 - 98 (World Series Champions)
2003 - 238 - 95 (club record)
2002 - 177 - 93
2001 - 198 - 82
2000 - 167 - 85

The Red Sox have won four World Series this century -- more than any other organization. In an era dominated by the long ball, only two of those teams hit at least 200 home runs. This is a reminder that pitching and defense really matter.

The Yankees hit a MLB-record 266 homers in 2018, yet didn't reach the World Series. In fact, they didn't even reach the ALCS.

Take a look at the top-10 most prolific home run-hitting teams in baseball history. Their results weren’t very good. It’s also worth noting that seven of the top-10 home run clubs were from this century and all have been since 1996.

2018 Yankees (266) - eliminated in ALDS
1997 Mariners (264) - eliminated in ALDS
2005 Rangers (260) - 3rd in AL West
2010 Blue Jays (257) - 4th in AL East
1996 Orioles (257) - 2nd in AL East
2016 Orioles (253) - tied for 2nd in AL East
2000 Astros (249) - 4th in AL Central
2001 Rangers (246) - 4th in AL West
2012 Yankees (245) - eliminated in ALCS
1996 Mariners (245) - 2nd in AL West

So, while we may expect the Red Sox to be a team of sluggers, and among the leaders in home runs, the reality is quite different — and it hasn’t really mattered either.

Only 11 teams the Red Sox' 118-year history hit at least 200 home runs (two in the 1970s, two in the 1990s and six this century). Just two of them went on to win the World Series.

That’s worth remembering this season and in the years ahead.