Saturday, April 09, 2022

Where Have MLB's Innings-Eaters Gone?

 


Steve Carlton threw 304 innings in 1980. He is the last big league pitcher to reach that mark.


There are 162 games in each MLB team's regular season and nine innings per game — assuming there are no extra innings, which is beyond unlikely. But let’s play along with this assumption anyway.

This means each club will play at least 1,458 innings per season. That’s a significant burden on pitching staffs. Well, at least it is for modern pitching staffs.  

In the late 19th Century, starting pitchers would toss as many as 600 innings in a single season. Though it sounds fantastical, it was done 13 times. And big league starters threw at least 500 innings on 72 different occasions. Moreover, through the early 20th Century, starters tossed at least 400 innings 239 different times. These guys weren’t cyborgs; they were flesh and blood humans. But they still managed one hell of a heavy load. 

This isn't ancient history either. Throwing 300 per season was fairly routine throughout the 1970s.

The Tigers’ Mickey Lolich threw 376 innings in 1971. The lefty also threw at least 300 innings for four consecutive seasons from 1971-1974. Lolich made at least 40 starts in four consecutive seasons, and he made at least 35 starts in seven of his 16 seasons. His career ended in 1979.

In 1972, Wilbur Wood threw 376.2 innings for the White Sox. He followed that up with 359.1 innings the next season. In fact, Wood, who began his career with the Red Sox, pitched at least 300 innings for four consecutive seasons, and he made at least 40 starts for five consecutive seasons in the 1970s.

Gaylord Perry threw 344 innings in 1973, and tossed at least 300 innings six times in a seven-year span. Perry made at least 40 starts in three seasons, and at least 35 starts in eleven seasons. His 22-year career didn’t end until 1983.

Nolan Ryan, whose legendary fastball topped 100 mph, threw 326 innings in 1973, followed by 332.2 innings in 1974. Ryan also threw 299 innings in 1977. Throwing hard didn’t prevent him from going deep into games and making all of his starts. In fact, Ryan made at least 35 starts in eight seasons, and he made at least 30 starts 16 times in a 27-year career that ended in 1993.

Phil Niekro threw 342 innings in 1979. Niekro exceeded 300 innings four times in a career that didn't end until 1987. Niekro made at least 40 starts in three seasons, and at least 35 starts in 11 of his 24 seasons. 

Steve Carlton threw 346.1 innings for the Phillies in 1972. Eight years later, in 1980, the lefty once again broke the 300-innings threshold (304) and remains the last big leaguer to do so. Carlton twice made at least 40 starts, and he made at least 35 starts eleven times in a 24-year career didn't end until 1988. 

Until the 1980 season, the major league innings leader would routinely toss at least 300 innings per season. Year after year, what now seems impossible was regularly achieved. 

It's worth noting that up until the late 1960s/early '70s, most MLB teams still used four-man rotations, requiring pitchers to make more starts and throw more innings each year. 

These guys threw hard, they threw often, and still they had exceptionally long careers. However, all of that changed in the intervening decades. 

In the1990s, the innings leader in each league threw at least 250 innings 15 times times over that 10-year span. 

By the 2000s, the innings leader in each leaguer threw at least 250 innings just five times. You could already see the downward trend in innings pitched.

Quite tellingly, since 2010, a big league pitcher has reached the 250-innings threshold just twice, and it last occurred in 2010 (Roy Halladay) and 2011 (Justin Verlander). It hasn’t been done since. 

To reach 300 innings, pitchers had to be able to regularly record complete games. That’s become an unrealistic expectation. The 1980s were the first time in MLB history that the number of saves outnumbered complete games. By 1995, there were nearly four saves for every complete game.
 
For the past three decades, starting pitchers have only been expected to give their clubs about 30 starts and roughly 200 innings per season, which has become the new milestone. This assumes that they remain healthy, which has become all the more unusual in recent years. 

It’s worth noting that a "quality start” is defined as lasting at least six innings, while allowing three or fewer runs. To be clear, three runs in six innings would result in a 4.50 ERA. That doesn’t really seem like “quality,” but it’s the state of the game today.  

A starter who pitches a full season in a five-man rotation will generally tally, at most, 34 games started. However, last season (2021) not a single pitcher made 34 starts. In 2019, just seven pitchers did so. 

If a starting pitcher were to make 32 starts, tossing seven innings each time, he would amass 224 innings in a season. While that used to be a standard expectation, these days it seems like fantasy. Last season, just four pitchers threw at least 200 innings. In 2019, only 15 pitchers reached that threshold. These days, starting pitchers are expected to give their teams just six innings per start, 
at best, which amounts to 192 innings over 32 starts.

Let's make a fantastical projection that all five starters each give their club 192 innings. That would amount to just 960 innings over the course of the season. 

But, as noted above, there are at least 1,458 innings in each season — assuming there are no extra innings games, which is an absurd projection. 

That 
498-inning differential needs to be absorbed by the bullpen, and it's a pretty heavy load for a relief core. 

By rule, teams are allowed just 13 pitchers on the 26-man roster (staffs used to be comprised by just nine or 10 pitchers). This means bullpens can now carry eight relievers at any given time. Of course, the makeup of the bullpen is subject to change over the duration of the season, but let’s play along simply as a thought experiment. 

If those eight relievers have to absorb those 498 innings, that amounts to 62.25 innings apiece. Last season, 91 pitchers in the majors made at least 60 appearances. While that may seem like a lot, remember that there are 30 teams, each possessing an eight-man bullpen. That means there are a minimum of 240 relievers across the majors.  

So, just 38% of relievers made at least 60 appearances last season. In other words, each member of an eight-man bullpen cannot realistically be expected to toss 62.25 innings per season.  

The solution isn’t to expand bullpens or to shuttle more players back and forth from the minors. The solution is to get starters throwing at least 200 innings per season again. Organizations need to stop focusing on strict 100-pitch limits, which could be achieved by ending the obsession with upper-90s fastballs. The focus on extreme heat has lead to a rash of elbow injuries and resulting Tommy John surgeries, which require about 15 months of recovery time. 

The focus should be on locating pitches, throwing strikes, being crafty and getting batters to chase pitches outside the strike zone. Ultimately, pitchers need to trust the defenses behind them.

Being out of gas in the fifth or sixth inning is not acceptable. This must end. Excessive pitching substitutions aren’t just lengthening the game, they're ruining the game. 

Pitchers from the 1870s to the 1980s weren’t super human. They threw hard and they never heard of a pitch count. Except for an unusual injury, leaving a game before the eighth inning was complete was practically unheard of, and it was an embarrassment. These guys took pride in taking the ball every fourth or fifth day, routinely making 30-35 starts every year, and throwing 200-300 innings every season. 

It’s time for that sort of pride, and ability, to return. The game would be better for it.