Monday, December 30, 2019

Red Sox' Brandon Workman Might Be Bullpen's Secret Weapon



Though the Red Sox have yet to name a closer for the 2020 season, Brandon Workman is an obvious choice.

Following the struggles of Matt Barnes (4/12 in save opportunities) and Ryan Brasier (4.85 ERA), Workman didn't take over as Boston's closer until August of last season. Yet, he made quite a statement all year long out of the Boston pen. The 31-year-old posted a 1.88 ERA over 71.2 innings, which just begins to tell the story. Workman allowed a mere 29 hits, the second fewest among qualifying relievers in Red Sox history.

In fact, the righty ranked near or at the top of nearly every statistical category for big league relievers. Workman held opponents to a .123 batting average in 2019 (29-for-235), which is the lowest mark for any pitcher since 1900 (min. 60.0 IP). His .166 opponents' slugging percentage is the lowest in the expansion era (1961-2019).

Consider that for a moment; those two statistics are amazing.

Though he may be due for a regression in 2020, Workman's 2019 numbers were spectacular. The one concern was his inflated walk rate, which reached a career-high 5.7 BB/9.

Workman is by now one of the longest-tenured members of the Red Sox, having pitched in the 2013 World Series. He threw a perfect 8th inning in the decisive Game 6, setting up closer Koji Uehara.

You may have forgotten how Boston ended up with Workman in the first place. The Red Sox drafted him in the second round (57th overall pick) of the 2010 MLB draft; he was a compensation pick from the Mets for signing free agent Jason Bay.

So, a decade a later, the decision to let Bay walk is still paying dividends for the Red Sox. By the way, Bay has been out of the majors since 2013 and his career went into a tailspin following his breakout 2009 season with Boston.

Meanwhile, Workman just quietly posted a historic season as a reliever for the Red Sox.

Sunday, November 17, 2019

Why the Red Sox Will Deal Mookie Betts



The Red Sox find themselves in a quandary this offseason. After having the highest payroll in the game for two consecutive years (the latter of which resulted in a third-place finish in 2019), ownership has stated its objective to lower the club’s payroll below the $208 million Competitive Balance Tax (CBT) threshold next season.

As it stands, the team has a projected payroll of $230 million next season (according to Fan Graphs), which means that roughly $22 million will somehow need to be shaved off to meet ownership’s objective.

This has led to the notion that the Sox may seek to trade Jackie Bradley Jr. this offseason. The center fielder is projected by MLB Trade Rumors to get $11 million in arbitration, a sum that surely outstrips his actual value. However, even if the Sox trade Bradley, they would still be about $11 million above the CBT. And then the Sox would need to replace Bradley, which would require an outlay to his successor. Perhaps the Sox can find a replacement for half the cost of Bradley, but that would make it even more difficult to get below the CBT.

Also, keep in mind that the Sox still need to find a fifth starter to replace Rick Porcello, who will most likely depart as a free agent. Though the team will surely experience a savings from Porcello’s $21 million annual salary, the entire $21 million won’t be eliminated since the Sox will still need to pay another starter.

The most obvious solution would be to trade Mookie Betts, who is projected by MLB Trade Rumors to receive $27.7 million in arbitration for the 2020 season.

Though the notion of trading the former MVP is heresy across Red Sox Nation, Betts has repeatedly insisted that he is determined to find his true market value in free agency next year. Though the Red Sox have previously tried to engage Betts’ in contract negotiations, to no avail, management has stated they will try once again this winter. It may be a last stand.

Betts admitted that he rejected an offer from the Red Sox following the 2017 season, which Joel Sherman of the New York Post reported was an eight-year, $200 million proposal. Betts will likely use Bryce Harper’s 13-year, $330 million contract and Mike Trout’s 12-year, $430 million extension as the parameters for his pending deal.

Betts may be better than Harper, but he is undoubtedly inferior to Trout, who isn’t merely the best player of his generation, but one of the greatest players of all time. Even if the Red Sox get Betts to agree to a 10-year contract, for whatever amount, its reasonable to ask if this is the best allocation of precious resources. Though Betts just turned 27 in October and is in the prime of his career, contracts of such length almost never turn out to be wise investments for the teams that agree to them.

Remember, a 10-year deal would pay Betts through his age-37 season. For comparison, Dustin Pedroia is 36 and has appeared in just nine games over the past two seasons; that was unimaginable when he signed his extension.

Consider the Red Sox history with long-term deals, which, for argument’s sake, I will refer to as any deal of at least five years in length. The following contracts are listed in total dollar value:

David Price - seven years, $217 million in 2015

Chris Sale - five years, $145 million in 2019

Carl Crawford - seven years, $142 million in 2010

Dustin Pedroia - eight years, $110 million in 2013

Daisuke Matsuzaka - six years, $52 million, plus $51 million posting fee (total = $103 million) in 2006

Pablo Sandoval - five years, $95 million in 2014

Rusney Castillo - seven years, $72.5 million in 2014

Nathan Eovaldi - four years, $68 million in 2018

Does anyone think that the Red Sox, in retrospect, would sign any of those contracts today? I think the clear answer is no. The team has been burned time after time. The Manny Ramirez deal (eight years, $160 million) was the only long-term pact that delivered true value.

The reality is that almost any contract of more than five years ultimately proves to be a mistake; teams are always paying for past performance.

John Henry and Tom Werner may reason that the Red Sox, with Betts leading the way, still finished in third place last season. Given their budget ambitions, there is no basis to argue that the Red Sox will markedly improve this winter or that the Yankees will regress. The Sox may be battling for second or third place once again, which ownership may rightly argue they can also do without Betts.

If Betts leaves as a free agent next offseason, the Red Sox would only get one compensation draft pick. If they trade him now, however, they might get as many as three proven prospects -- perhaps a team's top-five prospect, another top-10 prospect and a top-20 prospect.

Betts is undoubtedly a dynamic player, who possesses true five-tool ability. He is highly popular in New England, and for good reason. Yet, it’s a virtual certainty that whichever team signs Betts to his next contract will overpay and commit far too many years.

As I've argued previously, long-term contracts are bad for baseball — at least for the teams that sign them.

As it stands, the Red Sox will have five players on their roster making at least $20 million next season, three making at least $25 million and two making at least $30 million.

David Price - $32M
Chris Sale - $30M
Mookie Betts - arb estimate ~$27M
JD Martinez - $23.75M
Xander Bogaerts - $20M

Betts' next contract will almost certainly pay him at least $30 million annually. The big question is, how many $30 million contracts can one team carry -- even a big-market club like Boston?

My thinking is that the Red Sox will have at least one too many, no matter what.

Tuesday, November 05, 2019

How Will the Red Sox Reduce Payroll, While Remaining Competitive?


JD Martinez will be back with the Red Sox next season, which is both good news and bad news for the payroll-heavy club.

With JD Martinez choosing not to opt out of his 2020 contract, the Red Sox payroll now sits at ~$227.23 million, at a time when ownership has publicly stated its intention to get under the $208 million luxury tax threshold.

The organization will now have to seek alternative means to reduce payroll and, subsequently, its tax penalty.

Martinez's return next year will be great for the offense and will make Alex Cora's life easier, but it will also create great challenges for new vice president of baseball operations, Chaim Bloom.

Boston has a number of highly paid (or overpaid) players on its roster, which will make filling holes and building the 2020 team more difficult.

Red Sox Highest 2020 Salaries

David Price - $32M
Chris Sale - $30M
Mookie Betts - arb estimate ~$27M
JD Martinez - $23.75M
Xander Bogaerts - $20M
Nathan Eovaldi - $17M
Dustin Pedroia - $13M (may not play in 2020)
Jackie Bradley - arb estimate ~$11M

It's overly simplistic to say, "Just trade Price!" Saying that is easy; executing it is much more difficult. Everyone in baseball is aware of Price's age (34) injury history and health status. The Sox would likely pay another club about $10 million to have Price pitch for them. The wiser choice would be to keep him and hope for the best (30 starts, 200 innings, 3.50-4.00 ERA).

The Red Sox have $79 million committed to Price, Sale and Eovaldi for next season, which is extraordinary for just three pitchers. Though Boston may have (thankfully) shed Rick Porcello’s $21 million salary, they still need to replace him and there is no one in the minors ready to step up. That will necessitate finding an affordable free agent or making a trade, which comes with its own costs.

One distinct possibility for lowering payroll would be granting Jackie Bradley his arbitration award and then trading him. Bradley was worth just two wins above replacement last season, which is certainly a number that another outfielder could provide for a lot less money. Surely, the Red Sox love JBJ's glove and arm, but he has continually been an offensive under-performer since arriving in the majors in 2013. Bradley made $8.55 million last season and it's hard to argue that he's worth any sum above that. It's worth considering that the average MLB salary last season was $4.36 million.

It’s also worth noting that the Sox don’t necessarily need to find another center fielder to replace JBJ, since both Betts and Andrew Benintendi can fill that void. Adding a corner outfielder may be easier and more likely. In 2018 (the most recent year I could find data), right fielders earned an average salary of $5.2 million, with a median income of $3 million.

I don’t believe the Red Sox will trade Betts and I wouldn't advocate it. He is a fan favorite and a perennial MVP candidate. I think the team values him too much to trade him away. They are a big-market club and the owner has deep pockets. The Red Sox don't necessarily need to be the top bidder next year; they just have to be "in the ballpark.” Betts' loyalties to the organization, to Boston and the fans may be the ultimate determinant.

Whatever the team does to lower its current $227 million payroll to its stated objective of $208 million will be fascinating to witness. Such moves will require great creativity and, perhaps, some risks.

Chaim Bloom is now facing that challenge, yet he seems like a man who is up to the task. Surely, he knows how to do more with less. The Rays' payroll last season was $89.9 million, while the Red Sox' tab was $241.7 million.

Meanwhile, the Rays won 96 games and made the playoffs, while the Sox won just 84. Clearly, spending big money doesn't guarantee wins, and Bloom proved this.

Monday, September 30, 2019

Red Sox Will Be In Transition This Offseason



The Red Sox ended the 2019 season with a payroll totaling $241.7 million, the highest in baseball for the second-consecutive season. Despite their massive payroll, the Sox finished with an 84-78 record, good enough for third place in the AL East.

That’s surely not what ownership had in mind, nor the fans or the media.

The Sox ownership group has stated its goal heading into 2020 is to cut payroll to under $208 million. That's a reduction of more than $33 million.

Something's got to give. Clearly, the team won't be a big player in the free agent market this offseason. Additionally, some of the Sox' free agents will be allowed to walk, with no bidding by Boston.

Rick Porcello will not be back, which will save the club $21 million. Through five seasons with Boston, Porcello went 73-55, with a 4.43 ERA and 1.27 WHIP over 159 starts. Just twice did he reach 200 innings. For that, he was paid $95 million. Porcello was expected to be a solid No. 2 starter, but, with the exception of 2016, never lived up to that billing.

Mitch Moreland, who earned $6.5 million this season, will become a free agent and the Sox will likely say goodbye. Though he was a solid contributor both offensively and defensively, and is well-liked by his teammates, Moreland produced a 1.3 WAR this season, meaning he is replaceable for less money.

Steve Pearce, whose 2019 salary was $6.25 million, won't be back. We’ll always thank him for his 2018 post-season heroics.

By letting Porcello, Moreland and Pearce walk away, the Sox would save $33.75 million, which may solve their payroll problem.

However, they'll still need to replace those players. Perhaps the Sox view Michael Chavis as an able, and much cheaper, replacement for Moreland at first base.

How the club replaces Porcello is unknown. There is no starter in the minor league system that's prepared to take a rotation spot next season. The Sox haven’t successfully developed a major league pitcher since Clay Buchholz debuted in 2007, and his career was dicey. That’s a systemic problem. Once viewed as a potential starter, Darwinzon Hernandez is now viewed as a solid bullpen contributor.

The Sox released Eduardo Nunez earlier this season. His $4 million salary also comes off the books this offseason.

However, Brock Holt becomes eligible for free agency for first time this offseason. The Sox likely want him back and he will get a nice bump from his $3.575 million salary in 2019. The 31-year-old will probably get a three-year deal of $6-$8 million annually.

If JD Martinez opts out, the Sox may let him walk. He is due $23.75 million next season. Despite all he provides in terms of offense, Martinez is one of four Red Sox (David Price, Chris Sale, Mookie Betts) scheduled to make over $20 million next season. On top of that, the team does not view him as an everyday outfielder.

The Sox will likely make yet another overture to Betts, who has thus far insisted that he will find his market value in free agency next year. He will get a big bump in arbitration this winter. The Sox may have to decide on whether they can retain either Martinez or Betts, but it will be a gamble. The Sox might entertain the thought of trading Betts, rather than risk losing him for a mere draft pick a year from now.

Jackie Bradley had the lowest batting average (.225) of any center fielder to qualify for the batting title this year. Additionally, JBJ’s .738 OPS ranks ninth among the 14 center fielders who qualify, and that was his best mark over the past three seasons.

Bradley, however, is perhaps the best defensive center fielder in the game. The question is, how much value do the Red Sox place on that?

Bradley is eligible for free agency after the 2020 season and will likely make about $10 million in his final year of arbitration. If the Red Sox feel they can replicate his production for less money, the payroll-heavy club may seek to trade him this offseason. If no deal materializes, it’s possible that the club could even non-tender Bradley, though that may seem outlandish.

It’s worth noting that Andrew Benintendi and Betts can both play center.

In the unlikely event that the Sox can find a trade partner for Price, they'll deal him away. At age 34, his best years are well behind him and his contract is now an albatross. That’s precisely why no club will take Price unless the Sox pick up a hefty portion of his pact. They may be better off just keeping him.

One way or another, Boston's roster -- which is essentially the same group that won 108 games and the World Series in 2018 —will look quite a bit different when spring training opens next February.

Monday, August 19, 2019

Rafael Devers Chasing History



Rafael Devers had two more doubles on Sunday, giving him an MLB-best 46 this season. The third baseman is on pace to easily eclipse 50 two-baggers this year, a feat accomplished just eight times in the Red Sox' 119-year history.

Incredibly, the club record for doubles in a single season is also the Major League record. Red Sox outfielder Earl Webb hit an astounding 67 doubles in 1931. Webb posted freakish output that season, which proved to be an outlier, as his next highest total was a mere 30 doubles.

Here’s the list of Red Sox players who’ve hit 50 or more doubles in a season. It's quite short and reads like a who’s who list of Sox greats:

Earl Webb - 67 (1931) (MLB Record)
Nomar Garciaparra - 56 (2002)
Tris Speaker - 53 (1912)
David Ortiz - 52 (2007)
Nomar Garciaparra - 51 (2000)
Wade Boggs - 51 (1989)
Joe Cronin - 51 (1938)
Dustin Pedroia - 54 (2008)

Fourteen different Red Sox have led the American League in doubles, with several multiple-time winners. Carl Yastrzemski captured the doubles title three times and holds the team career record of 645 – well ahead of the 525 registered by Ted Williams. Williams twice led the AL in doubles with back-to-back titles in 1948 and 1949.

Most incredibly, Devers even has a shot at 60 doubles this season, an exceptionally rare feat. Just six players in Major League history have ever reached that threshold, and five of them did it in the 1930s. Most recently, two players reached the mark way back in 1936.

60-Double Seasons in MLB History

67: Earl Webb, 1931 Red Sox
64: Joe Medwick, 1936 Cardinals
64: George Burns, 1926 Indians
63: Hank Greenberg, 1934 Tigers
62: Paul Waner, 1932 Pirates
60: Charlie Gehringer, 1936 Tigers

Only eight players this century have reached even 55 doubles in a season, reinforcing how rare the accomplishment is.

Devers certainly has a shot at 55 and perhaps even 60. So, even if the Red Sox prove to be less than inspiring down the stretch, Devers’ chase certainly will be most interesting to watch.

Saturday, June 29, 2019

Why Does Mookie Betts Suddenly Look Ordinary?



The Red Sox reached the midway point of the 2019 season at 44-37 or seven games over .500, which put them on pace for an 88-74 record this year.

By this point, we all finally recognize that this team is not as good as last year's, even though it remains mostly the same. This was somewhat expected since the 2018 team won 108 games in the regular season and 11 more in the playoffs. That's a tough act to follow.

The Red Sox struggles this season are mirrored by their best player, Mookie Betts.

Betts set the bar so high last year that a slight decline in performance was to be expected this year. However, Betts' stats have fallen precipitously in 2019.

The center fielder's batting average is down 85 points to .261, his OBP is down 59 points to .379 and his slugging percentage is down almost 200 points, plummeting from .640 to .459.

However, as Alex Speier points out, Betts is actually walking at a higher rate this year and striking out at a slightly lower rate than last year, when he was already among the best both categories. So what gives?

Speier notes that Betts is pulling the ball less this season, falling from 47.8 percent to 43.6 percent, which may account for some of the falloff. Because Betts isn't a natural power hitter, he needs to pull the ball to generate home runs. Balls hit the other way often result in outs for Betts.

After the breathtaking season Betts had in 2018, pitchers have made an adjustment and are attacking him down and away. He knows it and hitting coach Tim Hyers knows it. Hyers says that Betts even anticipates this.

The question at this point in the season is why hasn’t he been able to make the necessary adjustments of his own? Betts had a fantastic 2016 season, but a rather ordinary 2017. Then he had his historical MVP run last year. In other words, he’s been on and off from year to year.

That may hurt him in free agency after next season, unless he produces another even-numbered-year explosion in 2020.

Betts still has time to adjust, but this season is already past the halfway mark. In other words, time is short for the former MVP... and for the Red Sox, who rely on him so much.

Monday, May 13, 2019

When the Red Sox Bet on Wade Boggs Over Carney Lansford



When the Red Sox obtained Carney Lansford from the Angels after the 1980 season, it appeared that the 23-year old would be a mainstay in the Boston lineup for years to come. The California native had played three solid seasons for the Angels and finished third in the 1978 AL Rookie of the Year vote.

Lansford manned the hot corner for the Red Sox during the strike-shortened 1981 season, a year in which he won the batting title with a .336 average. Lansford also won his lone Silver Slugger that season, though he had just 4 homers, 23 doubles and 52 RBI over 102 games.

The very next year, 1982, Wade Boggs made his debut in Boston and the Red Sox suddenly had a logjam at third base. That season, Lansford played 114 games at third and was the DH in 14 contests. Consequently, Boggs ended up playing more games at first base (49) than at third (44), even though he was a natural third baseman. Someone had to go.

The Red Sox, rightfully, saw more upside in the 24-year-old Boggs than the 25-year-old Lansford. So, during the 1982 off-season, Boston sent Lansford to Oakland in exchange for Tony Armas, in what turned out to be a great deal for Boston.

Armas placed second in the AL with 36 home runs in 1983 and in 1984 led the AL with 43 HR, 123 RBI, 77 extra-base hits and 339 total bases. From 1980 to 1985, Armas hit more homers (187) than any other AL player.

At the time Lansford was traded, many Red Sox fans (myself included), couldn’t believe that the team would swap a player who had batted .301 and .336 over the preceding two seasons. Lansford just seemed too good to deal away.

Yet, while Lansford was always a good player, I had somehow perceived him as being a lot better than he really was. Though I had long thought of Lansford as a great player, it turns out that he was just a good one, which is perfectly respectable. For perspective, Lansford was an All Star just once (1988) in his 15 seasons.

Though Lansford was a career .290 hitter, which is pretty sweet, he was mostly a singles hitter, absent the power of a typical corner infielder.

Lansford hit 151 career homers and popped a career high of 19 in three seasons. He hit 30 doubles just three times and topped out at 31. As a result, he had a .411 career slugging percentage, which is pretty weak. Not once did he slug .500. He also topped out at 80 RBI in 1980 and in most years knocked in about 45-65 runs. He just wasn't a significant run-producer.

But defense matters, right?

Well, Lansford never won a Gold Glove, so he wasn’t considered an elite defender. Yet, he posted a .966 career fielding percentage as a third baseman, while the league average at that position was .951. Lansford also swiped 224 bases over his career and stole at least 20 in five seasons.

All in all, Carney Lansford was a very good player, but not a great one, as I once believed. There’s nothing wrong with that. He played in three World Series with the A's, losing in 1988 and 1990 and winning in 1989.

But, in retrospect, the Red Sox clearly did the right thing in betting on Boggs over Lansford after his two solid seasons in Boston, and in receiving Armas in exchange for him.

Thursday, April 11, 2019

How Much do Home Runs Really Matter to Red Sox?



The Red Sox have long been viewed a power hitting organization, perhaps due to the confines of Fenway Park. For decades, the Sox constructed a roster of sluggers and rarely stole bases. In short, they’ve never really been a “small ball” club.

Yet, while 18 MLB teams have hit at least 240 home runs in a single season, the Red Sox are not one of them. The 2003 team set a club record with 238.

In fact, the Sox haven't really lived up to their reputation as a power-hitting team in this century, belting at least 200 homers in just seven of 19 seasons. Yet, home runs only matter if you win games.

So what’s the Red Sox' power output been worth? How was their record reflected in the total number of home runs they hit each year this century?

YEAR - HR - Wins
2018 - 208 - 108 (World Series Champions)
2017 - 168 - 93
2016 - 208 -93
2015 - 161 - 78
2014 - 123 - 71
2013 - 178 - 97 (World Series Champions)
2012 - 165 - 69
2011 - 203 - 90
2010 - 211 - 89
2009 - 212 - 95
2008 - 173 - 95
2007 - 166 - 96 (World Series Champions)
2006 - 192 - 86
2005 - 199 - 95
2004 - 222 - 98 (World Series Champions)
2003 - 238 - 95 (club record)
2002 - 177 - 93
2001 - 198 - 82
2000 - 167 - 85

The Red Sox have won four World Series this century -- more than any other organization. In an era dominated by the long ball, only two of those teams hit at least 200 home runs. This is a reminder that pitching and defense really matter.

The Yankees hit a MLB-record 266 homers in 2018, yet didn't reach the World Series. In fact, they didn't even reach the ALCS.

Take a look at the top-10 most prolific home run-hitting teams in baseball history. Their results weren’t very good. It’s also worth noting that seven of the top-10 home run clubs were from this century and all have been since 1996.

2018 Yankees (266) - eliminated in ALDS
1997 Mariners (264) - eliminated in ALDS
2005 Rangers (260) - 3rd in AL West
2010 Blue Jays (257) - 4th in AL East
1996 Orioles (257) - 2nd in AL East
2016 Orioles (253) - tied for 2nd in AL East
2000 Astros (249) - 4th in AL Central
2001 Rangers (246) - 4th in AL West
2012 Yankees (245) - eliminated in ALCS
1996 Mariners (245) - 2nd in AL West

So, while we may expect the Red Sox to be a team of sluggers, and among the leaders in home runs, the reality is quite different — and it hasn’t really mattered either.

Only 11 teams the Red Sox' 118-year history hit at least 200 home runs (two in the 1970s, two in the 1990s and six this century). Just two of them went on to win the World Series.

That’s worth remembering this season and in the years ahead.

Tuesday, March 19, 2019

Dustin Pedroia's Winter of Discontent Continues



In October 2016, Dustin Pedroia had surgery to repair a torn meniscus in his left knee and spent the offseason recovering. Then Manny Machado spiked Pedroia at second base in April, 2017 and his left knee has never been the same.

After playing through discomfort and being limited to just 105 games that season, Pedroia had a cartilage restoration procedure on his left knee that November. The surgery involved grafting cartilage from a cadaver to fit into the damaged area.

Nearly a year-and-a-half later, Pedroia still isn’t fully healed and will begin yet another season on the disabled list.

The Red Sox initially believed that Pedroia would be able to play most of the 2018 season. That proved to be wildly optimistic. After missing the first two months, Pedroia returned on May 26, only to be put back on the DL after just three games. Despite the advanced surgical technique, the second baseman was again sidelined after just 11 at-bats.

Following that disappointing outcome, Pedroia underwent arthroscopic surgery on the same knee at the end of May, which uncovered scar tissue as the root of the problem. He then underwent a second arthroscopic procedure last August.

That amounted to a total of three knee surgeries in just 10 months and four in 26 months. Pedroia says he now has reservations about the original cartilage restoration procedure.

"No, I wouldn't have done it,” he said recently. "I don't regret doing it, but looking back and knowing what I know now, I wouldn't have done it,”

No position player has ever undergone the cartilage restoration surgery Pedroia endured, so there is no template for his recovery. However, one pitcher who had the procedure happens to be one of Pedroia’s teammates.

Steven Wright underwent the same surgery on his left knee in May of 2017, yet recently admitted, “I don’t think I’m ever going to feel 100 percent like I did before I hurt my knee."

That's got to be of great concern to the Red Sox and Pedroia. As a second baseman and a hitter, Pedroia needs more mobility and agility than Wright. His defense has always been well above average. In fact, he is the first Red Sox infielder to win four Gold Gloves. All of that is now at risk.

There's a good chance that Pedroia, like Wright, will never fully recover and return to being the star player he once was. That's worrisome.

The 35-year-old has three seasons remaining on his contract and is owed $40 million over that span. His eight-year, $110 million pact continues through his age-37 season.

Pedroia remained productive throughout his early 30s, slashing .296/.360/.415 over 2,195 plate appearances from 2014-2017. But he’s been limited to just 108 games over the last two seasons and faces nothing but questions about his future as he begins yet another season on the DL.

Though we may not have seen the last of Pedroia, we’ve likely see the best of him.

This isn’t what anyone imagined just a couple of years ago, least of all Pedroia himself.

Tuesday, March 05, 2019

Remembering Fred Lynn, the 1975 AL MVP and Rookie of the Year


The former defensive standout and batting champion has fond memories of his 16 years in the Major Leagues

The following is an interview I did with Fred Lynn in 2002. It originally ran in Baseball Digest.

In November 2001, following a phenomenal debut season, Seattle Mariners’ right fielder Ichiro Suzuki was named both Rookie of the Year and Most Valuable Player in the American League. The 28-year-old led the majors with a .350 batting average and 56 stolen bases, becoming the first player since Jackie Robinson in 1949 to accomplish this feat.

Winning both the MVP and ROY in the same year wasn’t without precedent, however.

In 1975, a young, left-handed slugger burst onto the national scene and into the big leagues in rather dramatic fashion. Fred Lynn, a 23-year-old center fielder for the Boston Red Sox, had a remarkable rookie year by leading the American League with 103 runs, 47 doubles, a .566 slugging percentage and a .967 OPS. He finished second in batting, with a .331 average, swatted 21 home runs, and collected 105 RBI and 175 hits.

His efforts were rewarded with Rookie of the Year honors, over teammate Jim Rice, and the AL MVP Award, ahead of Rice, John Mayberry, Rollie Fingers and Reggie Jackson.

Not only was Lynn productive at the plate, he was also a graceful — if not reckless — centerfielder, who became just the third rookie in major league history to win a Gold Glove Award. In fact, he is more proud of the big defensive plays than anything he ever did offensively.

Aside from two standout rookies in Lynn and Rice, the Red Sox had a solid club in 1975 that included Carl Yastrzemski, Carlton Fisk, Dwight Evans, Rico Petrocelli, Rick Burleson, and pitchers Luis Tiant, Bill Lee and Rick Wise. The club won the AL East title and then swept the three-time defending World Series champions, the Oakland A’s, in three straight games in the League Championship Series.

In the World Series against the Reds, Lynn hit .280 and slammed a crucial three-run homer in the first inning of Game 6 — the memorable contest that featured Fisk’s dramatic game-winning blast off the left-field foul pole in the bottom of the 12th inning.

Recalling the legacy of that epic Series, and Game 6 in particular, Lynn said he is quite aware and proud of its historical impact.

“That put baseball back on the map,” he remarked. “Baseball was kind of waning, popularity-wise, at that point. For the time that it took place and the significance it had on the sport, it was pretty important.”

Lynn’s arrival brought hope to the Red Sox, who had three third-place and two second-place finishes since their last pennant in 1967. However, that seven-year pennant drought didn’t deter Lynn in the least.

“I had a lot of wins under my belt coming into the big leagues,” he said. “I don't know if I expected the Red Sox to get to the World Series in my first year, but it didn't surprise me because that’s what I’ve done. At every level that I’ve ever played, I’ve been on winning teams and it was the exception, rather than the rule, if I wasn’t. Everybody else was surprised, but I really wasn’t.”

It was this firm confidence that led to his tremendous success and immediate impact with the club. Lynn has great expectations of himself, as well as the team, but he didn’t anticipate the awards he would later receive that year.

“I never played or looked toward earning individual achievements, so these things never entered my mind,” Lynn said. “I expected to do well, yes. I had kind of a precursor because when I came up in September of ’74, I hit over .400 for the two weeks that I played. The conditions were so much better than in the minor leagues. I saw the ball better. The guys threw more strikes and it seemed that it was easier to hit up there than in the minors.”

Being a 23-year-old rookie, Lynn said he was perhaps too young to appreciate the events that unfolded during the 1975 season and that he didn't really get perspective on them until much later.

“Everything happened so quickly and during the baseball season you don’t really have time to enjoy things very much because you play the next day,” he said. “Even when I had that big night against Detroit in June, when I drove in 10 runs, we were off to Baltimore the next day and there was no time to enjoy it. It was a good night. You just keep going — the season is relentless. As a new guy going to all these cities for the first time, and so much information happening every day, it just kind of overwhelms you.”

Despite his success during his first full season in the majors, Lynn felt great disappointment losing the seven-game World Series to the Reds. However, his fire still burned and he felt that he and the Red Sox still had some unfinished business.

“I told the press at the time that this was this was a pretty high benchmark and you can’t expect these kinds of numbers every year because, obviously, no one does that. I expected to do well and I did expect to get back to the World Series with that group of guys we had — there’s no question about that. Success did come very fast for me and very early, but I had experienced that before, so there was no great surprise.

"The surprise was not getting back to the World Series with Boston, because we always had a good nucleus of position players. The pitching was always suspect. We were always one guy away. If we’d been able to keep Rollie Fingers after the trade (nixed by commissioner Bowie Kuhn), that would have been a big turn-around for my career, I’m sure. But it seemed that we were just a little bit short all the time, because all the best teams were in our division. I can’t tell you the number of games that we lost in the later innings at Fenway because we didn't have that big arm."

Lynn’s biggest competition for Rookie of the Year came from his own teammate, Jim Rice. They had similar offensive numbers, but Lynn was a defensive specialist and Gold Glove winner.

Rice’s broken wrist, which occurred right as the Sox were entering the hunt for that ever-elusive World Series title, had a devastating impact on the club, according to Lynn.

“That’s a point that people forget about. We lost Jimmy late in September and never had him in the playoffs or the World Series. We still went through Oakland pretty easily, but if we’d had him against the Reds, that would have been a big difference — a huge difference. That was a big blow for us, but nobody ever talks about that.”

After his stellar rookie season, Lynn’s numbers and production fell off in ’76, leaving some to wonder if he was just a flash in the pan. However, through it all, Lynn never lost his confidence or his edge.

“Nineteen-seventy-six was a very difficult season because Carlton Fisk, Rick Burleson and I were all represented by the same agent, and we all went into that season unsigned. The free agency case was going to the courts and we were banking that free agency was going to happen. So, we didn't want to get locked into a one-year deal when it looked like we could get a multi-year deal. So, that created a lot of turmoil in Beantown, especially with me, and it looked like I was turning on the organization, which really wasn’t the case.

“We were just trying to do the best we could do for ourselves and our families. That’s when (Red Sox owner) Tom Yawkey died, in July, and so it was very traumatic. I went from the “fair-haired boy” to the “greedy West Coast kid.” It was very difficult to play. I still hit .314 under the worst conditions, because I felt terrible at home. Getting booed at home is tough.”

Lynn didn't have another season that matched his ’75 debut until 1979, when all of his numbers were actually better, yet he didn't win the MVP. The award that year went to Angels’ outfielder Don Baylor. This was despite the fact that Lynn won the batting title and finished ahead of Baylor in homers, doubles, walks, total bases, OBP and slugging.

The Red Sox, however, didn't win their division and the Angels won the West. Lynn finished a distant fourth in the balloting.

“His team won and mine didn’t,” said Lynn. “That’s not to say that I didn’t have a better year, but that’s all subjective. In 1989, they gave the MVP to Robin Yount and his team finished fourth. I played the game for a number of reasons, but none of them were for awards. When they came my way, it was great. But if they didn’t, I had a pretty thick skin. I learned early on that those kinds of things are not under my control.”

Lynn felt that the 1979 campaign was one of redemption — finally, he’d proven that 1975 wasn’t a fluke.

“It was nice because a lot of people in Boston were wondering f I could duplicate that again. That was the first offseason that I tinkered with weights; I gained about 15 pounds of muscle. So, instead of being a line-drive hitter, I became a power hitter."

However, Lynn didn’t sacrifice his batting average with the advent of his power surge. He hit a career-high 39 homers, while also winning a batting title with a .333 average.

“It goes hand-in-hand with me. When I’m hitting well, I hit the ball out of the park. If my home runs are up, that means I’m hitting.”

In 1980, after three more Gold Glove Awards, Lynn was surprised to find out that the Red Sox wanted to trade him. He was quite disappointed because he had hoped to play his entire career in Boston, just as his teammate, Yaz, had done. Lynn said that the ugly contract negotiations of 1976 were a wound that never fully healed.

In his final season, as a member of the Padres, Lynn said he spoke to writer Peter Gammons and finally got the inside story on why he was traded.

“He told me that Mrs. Yawkey wanted to get rid of us (Lynn, Fisk and Burleson), because she blamed us for he husband’s death in 1976, when we were all unsigned and he died.

As incredible as the story is, it makes sense to Lynn.

“I mean, there’s no other reason that you can get rid of your shortstop, your catcher and your center fielder, who are all Gold Glovers and who can hit .300,” he said.

Lynn believes that he would have benefitted greatly had he stayed in Boston; he knew how to use the wall at Fenway and it made for a great home-field advantage.

“I hit over .350 there, lifetime. You could just add 20 or 30 points to my batting average because I could handle left field there.”

Following the 1980 season, Lynn was traded to the Angels and said that returning to Fenway as a member of the visiting team proved to be a bitter-sweet experience.

“It was difficult because, obviously, they’re not going to like you because you’re in another uniform. You hear the cat calls because the fans are right on top of you in center field at Fenway. I heard it pretty good from them. I always had mixed emotions, because I always thought I’d be playing there for them and not against them. It was difficult to come into Boston and play for the opposing team. It wasn’t much fun, actually.”

Lynn said that there is something about his trade to the Angels that most Red Sox fans don’t know about, which says a lot about him. After going through the arbitration process, catcher Carlton Fisk was declared a free agent and signed with the White Sox. Yet, at around midnight, the night before his arbitration hearing, Lynn agreed to be traded to the Angels.

“I would have been a free agent too, but I just eliminated that whole process and agreed to the trade. They got a few bodies. Otherwise, they would have got nothing — like they got for Pudge (Fisk).

Those bodies turned out to be Frank Tanana, Joe Rudi and Jim Dorsey.

Injuries are the greatest liability to a player’s success, if not career, and his team’s success as well. Unfortunately for Lynn, and the teams he played for, he averaged just 122 games per year in a sport that has a 162-game season. Lynn’s sense that any ball hit near him was catchable cost him dearly.

“That was my attitude. It limited the amount of games I ended up playing. The walls won a lot of the time,” he said, laughing. “I played football at Southern Cal and I was a wide receiver. You're gonna get hit by somebody, so you might as well catch the ball. And that was my attitude when I played baseball. I know where that wall is and if I’m going to take a shot to that wall, I’m gonna catch the ball. I want my pitching staff to know that I’m going to give all of my effort on every play and believe me, pitchers appreciate that.”

Perhaps Lynn’s most famous and spectacular crash came in one of his biggest games, with a huge audience watching. During the 1975 World Series, he was chasing a fly ball hit by Ken Griffey and ran, full speed, into the wall at Fenway.

“That got padding put on the wall," said Lynn.

It was a moment when time seemed to stand still for all who were watching A collective gasp went up in the crowd. Everyone knew that something was very wrong and that Lynn was hurt badly.

“When I hit the wall, I lost all feeling from my waist down. I thought I’d broken my back, I was fully conscious, but I didn’t move because I couldn’t feel anything. So, that was pretty scary.”

The crash didn't turn out to be as devastating as it appeared and, fortunately, Lynn soon recovered. It was the pileup of constant injuries, however, that kept a player who showed Hall of Fame ability from ever realizing his full potential. Lynn suffered broken ribs in yet another crash into an outfield wall, a broken big toe, torn ligaments in his ankle and lower back problems late in his career, which still plague him to this day.

“When I was healthy, you couldn’t stop me from producing. But when you play as many games as we do, and when you play with a style that I played, things happen.”

Had he remained healthy, things might have been very different in his career.

“If you put health alongside those games, then I’ll hit .300 — that’s just the way it is. If I’m running on all cylinders, then you can just ‘book it, Danno’, as they say," a reference to a place in Cooperstown.

Lynn is not an especially humble man, but like all great athletes, it's that supreme confidence and ego — an underlying belief in himself — that separated him from average peers and mediocrity. Premier players often have a knack for playing their best when it counts — in the postseason. Lynn was one of the best clutch players of his time, but unfortunately for him, his teams only made two postseason appearances.

A career .283 hitter, he hit an impressive .407 in the postseason, including a stunning .611 in the 1982 American League Championship Series with the Angels. In fact, Lynn won the ALCS MVP award, despite the fact that the Angels lost the series to the Brewers. He was the quintessential money player.

“I always played better in front of big crowds,” Lynn said. “I played better in the big games because you had my full attention. When you play 162 games, sometimes the mental part of the game is where you miss out. That was the hardest part for me — being in it mentally all the time. But as far as the big games were concerned, and the big crowds, I fed off that kind of stuff. I loved it when there were 60,000 people. I loved it when everybody was there — that’s when I played my best.”

The playoffs weren’t the only games reserved for Lynn’s uncanny ability to step into the spotlight and shine. As a member of nine consecutive American League All Star teams, he was on the losing squad in the first eight. Then came the night in July, 1983, that provided Lynn with what he has called his greatest moment as a pro. Playing in Chicago’s old Comiskey Park, Lynn smashed a grand slam that led his team to a lopsided 13-3 victory, earning him the game’s MVP Award. With that swing, he became the first and only player in the history of the All Star game to hit a bases-loaded home run.

However, it wasn’t the personal accomplishment that was so special to him. Lynn was a team player and winning was his motivation. For him, it was always priority one, ahead of individual awards and achievements.

“It’s not because no one had done it before, because I didn’t know that. It was my hometown, Chicago. It’s where I was born and we crushed them, 13-3. That’s why it was significant. And ever since that time, the American League has pretty much dominated. The National League won a lot of close games and we just got tired of hearing about how they were better. So, that’s why it was big.”

Playing for five teams in 16 seasons, Lynn was graced with the honor of playing with such Hall of Famers as Carl Yastrzemski, Carlton Fisk, Eddie Murray, Cal Ripken Jr. and Tony Gwynn. This made the sort of fantasy lineup that most players can only dream about. When asked who was the best he ever played with, Lynn had nothing but great things to say about all of them.

However, given his history of injuries and his familiarity with the grind of a 162-game season, Lynn is especially impressed with the toughness and durability of Ripken.

“He was just a consistent player — he was a grinder. He just went out every day and did his job. He’s probably the most consistent guy, because that’s what he was — Mr. Consistency. He was in there every day and he just grinded it out. So, he’s way up there because of that.”

He also believes that Jim Rice deserves entrance into the Hall of Fame.

“Jimmy was one of the most feared hitters of his time, there’s no question. And the fact that he got 200 hits three years in a row -- he was an excellent hitter. When Jimmy and I played together in the minor leagues, he couldn’t catch a cold. But he made himself a good outfielder. He played Fenway as well as anybody. So, yes, I think that he should be in.”

Lynn is quite proud of his association with Rice, as well as with Dwight Evans, the sum of whom he believes made up one of baseball’s greatest outfields.

“As good as you can write up. I defy you to pick three better guys. When you put the three of us together, collectively, I’d put us against anybody that’s ever played.”



While acknowledging Ichiro’s historic year in 2001, Lynn sees his age that year (28) and nine professional seasons in Japan, prior to his first season in the majors, as the biggest difference between their achievements.

“He had all that experience. I was just 23 and hardly had any professional experience. Yeah, I had a lot of amateur experience, but that’s not the same thing.”

After 12 years of retirement, Lynn still has a fondness for Boston.

“It really does my heart good when I go back, because I hear about my defensive abilities. That’s what people remember and that’s the way I want to be remembered. I don’t want to be remembered for my bat. I want to be remembered for my glove, and that’s how they think of me back there.”

Today, Lynn resides in Southern California with his wife, Natalie, and is the spokesman for Trinity Products, which makes a brand of major league baseball clothing for women.

He turned 50 years old last February, which was as hard for him to believe as it might be for his fans.

“It goes by fairly quickly and you wish you could slow it down a little bit. When you’re playing ball, there’s nothing else besides what you’re doing. The world doesn’t really exist, other than your teammates and baseball. That’s the way I looked at it. That was my world. Everything else was kind of out there — you saw it, but it really didn't affect you. Obviously, now it’s different. Now I’m in the real world."

Thursday, February 28, 2019

Baseball's Compensation System is Broken and Needs to be Fixed



Much has been made of the glacial pace of baseball’s free agent market the last two offseasons. However, three of the five biggest contracts in MLB history were signed in just the past week:

Bryce Harper - 13 years, $330 million
Manny Machado - 10 years, $300 million
Nolan Arenado - 8 years, $260 million.

Clearly, the game’s biggest stars are still getting paid quite well. However, the star players are getting a disproportionately large slice of the pie. The rank-and-file players aren’t getting their fair share.

The Major League minimum salary in 2018 was $545,000 and will increase to $555,000 this season.

The average Major League salary in 2018 was $4.095 million, down from $4.097 million in 2017. It was the first decline since 2004 and only the fourth since record-keeping started 50 years ago, according to the players' association.

The average career of a Major League Baseball player is 5.6 years, according to a 2007 study by the University of Colorado at Boulder. The study also revealed that one in five position players will have only a single-year career.

In other words, these young men have a very small window in which to maximize their earning potential.

Expect the players' association to fight for a higher minimum salary and for players to reach free agency in four or five years, rather than six. The players will also fight to prevent teams from holding premiere players in the minors at the start of the season in order to extend their control of those players.

For example, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is widely viewed as the top prospect in baseball. If the Blue Jays wait until April 12 to purchase his contract, Guerrero will not become a free agent until after the 2025 season. That would effectively give Toronto control of Guerrero for seven seasons, rather than six.

Why?

A year of service takes 172 days in the major leagues. Teams control a player's rights for six full years. All a team needs to do is keep a player in the minor leagues for 15 days and it can get almost an entire extra year of the player's service without exposing him to free agency.

The current Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) incentivizes teams to keep major-league-ready players in the minors, rather than letting them break camp with the big league club. This will surely be revisited by the Players Association in the next collective bargaining negotiations.

However, the current CBA runs through the end of the 2021 season, so the players — who are said to be quite angry about the current state of free agency — will have to live with it for another three years.

What’s obvious is that baseball's compensation system is completely out of whack. It takes 4-6 years for a minor league player to make it to the majors, according to Business Insider.

The average age of a major league player was 28.91 years on opening day last year, and that was down from 29.13 at the start of the previous season.

If a player is drafted out of high school at age 18 and takes six years to reach the majors, he arrives at age 24. If a college player is drafted at age 22 and takes just two years to break in, he also gets there at age 24. Either way, the team controls that player for at least six years, which takes him through age 29.

As more than 100 years of historical evidence shows, the weighted-average OPS of a major league player peaks at age 29 and begins to plummet by age 32. This is why the free agent market for hitters has been so weak the last two offseasons and why it will likely remain so into the future. For the most part, 30-year-olds will no longer get seven or eight-year deals, much less decade-long pacts.



This presents a problem for the players; their earnings are lowest when they are at their youngest and in their prime. Then, when they reach free agency, they’re asking teams to pay them based on past performance, though they are generally entering their decline phase. The owners have become too smart to continue what amounted to an unwise business practice.

The current system clearly benefits the owners. Players should be paid based on merit from Year One. On the other hand, aging, underperforming players shouldn’t be getting paid massive salaries (i.e., Albert Pujols, Jacoby Ellsbury, Miguel Cabrera, Robinson Cano, Jason Heyward, etc.).

The system is broken and it needs to be fixed. The next Collective Bargaining negotiations will present an opportunity to correct the problem and finally make it right.

Sunday, February 10, 2019

Red Sox Facing Payroll Constraints This Season and Beyond



The Red Sox' payroll is again projected to be the highest in MLB this season. Roster Resource projects Boston’s current luxury tax payroll to be a hefty $239.7 million. The Competitive Balance Tax (CBT) threshold -- aka, the "luxury tax" -- is $206 million for the 2019 season.

That's kept Boston from going after the upper-tier relievers on the free agent market this offseason. David Robertson, Zack Britton, Adam Ottavino, Kelvin Herrera and Andrew Miller (among others) all signed free agent deals, while the Red Sox sat on their hands without bidding.

It will be interesting to see how payroll constraints play out next offseason, when the team will have a number of important contract decisions to make.

Chris Sale, Xander Bogaerts and Rick Porcello are eligible for free agency after the 2019 season. Additionally, J.D. Martinez can opt-out of his current contract.

Mookie Betts and Jackie Bradley Jr. can become free agents after 2020, and J.D. Martinez can once again opt-out.

Sale, Bogaerts and Betts are all in line for rather large paydays, which could complicate the team’s payroll. How many $25 million-per-year players can the Red Sox afford?

The Competitive Balance Tax threshold will rise to $208 million in 2020 and $210 million in 2021. Yet, it will still cause constraints for the team.

The CBT is calculated by the Average Annual Value (AAV) of player salaries and bonuses earned by players on the club's 40-man roster, plus players who have been released or outrighted to the minors, or who are being paid a deferred salary after becoming a free-agent.

Pablo Sandoval's contract lingers as a significant chunk of dead money on the team's payroll. Sandoval is on the books for $18.455 million in 2019 -- plus another $5 million in 2020 because of the buyout.

The Red Sox surely would like a do-over on Rusney Castillo's seven-year, $72.5 million contract. The Cuban outfielder will be paid $11 million to play at Pawtucket this season and another $13.5 million in 2020 -- unless he opts out, which will never happen. His salary still counts against the CBT.

Though it's been more than a decade since Manny Ramirez last played for the Red Sox, he's still getting checks from the club. After the Red Sox traded Ramirez in 2008, they still owed him $32 million, which is getting paid out in installments of roughly $2 million. The annual payments will continue until 2026.

In total, that’s $31.5 million for three players who won’t be on the 40-man roster this season, but still count against the CBT. In 2020, that number will drop to $20.5 million.

In other words, those three players are affecting the Red Sox' spending this offseason and they will again next offseason as well.

The club already has some rather sizable contracts on the books for the next couple of years. Here’s a look:

● David Price will make $32 million annually from 2020-2022

● JD Martinez is slated to make $23.75 million in 2019 and 2020, and $19.375 million in 2021 and 2022. He can opt out after the 2019 and 2020 seasons, if he thinks he can earn more from the Red Sox or another club.

● Mookie Betts got $20 million for this season, his second-to-last year of arbitration eligibility. He will get a raise next year and will likely be seeking a contract of roughly $30 million annually following the 2020 season.

● Nathan Eovaldi will make $17 million annually through the 2022 season.

● Though Dustin Pedroia will make $15 million this season, his pay will fall to $13 million in 2020 and $12 million in 2021. It's unknown how well he can play, if at all, going forward.

Chris Sale, 30 in March, will make $15 million this season, meaning that he will be significantly underpaid for a pitcher of his caliber. He will likely be seeking a contract the magnitude of Price’s seven-year, $217 million deal. He’s at least as deserving, in as much as anyone can “deserve” that kind of money for throwing a baseball.

Xander Bogaerts, age 26, will make $12.5 million this season and will likely seek about $20 million per season on a contract of at least seven years in length.

Jackie Bradley, age 28, will make $8.55 million this season. Though he is not an exceptional hitter, he is an all-world center fielder who will likely command a contract of at least $10 million per season going forward.

If Martinez doesn’t opt out after this season and the club is able to retain Sale and Bogaerts, they would then have five players (including Price and Betts) making at least $20 million annually. That’s over $100 million for just five players, which is more than the 2018 payrolls of the Reds, Marlins, Pirates, Athletics, White Sox and Rays.

Let that sink in.

The Red Sox’ hefty payroll has already left the defending World Champions in the awkward position of heading into the 2019 season with Matt Barnes or Ryan Brasier as their closer. They will face even more difficult decisions over the next two off-seasons. There’s a strong chance the Sox won't be able to keep the entirety of their young core intact.

This is evidence that even big-market, high-payroll teams have financial constraints, just as the CBT intended.