The Red Sox' payroll is again projected to be the highest in MLB this season. Roster Resource projects Boston’s current luxury tax payroll to be a hefty $239.7 million. The Competitive Balance Tax (CBT) threshold -- aka, the "luxury tax" -- is $206 million for the 2019 season.
That's kept Boston from going after the upper-tier relievers on the free agent market this offseason. David Robertson, Zack Britton, Adam Ottavino, Kelvin Herrera and Andrew Miller (among others) all signed free agent deals, while the Red Sox sat on their hands without bidding.
It will be interesting to see how payroll constraints play out next offseason, when the team will have a number of important contract decisions to make.
Chris Sale, Xander Bogaerts and Rick Porcello are eligible for free agency after the 2019 season. Additionally, J.D. Martinez can opt-out of his current contract.
Mookie Betts and Jackie Bradley Jr. can become free agents after 2020, and J.D. Martinez can once again opt-out.
Sale, Bogaerts and Betts are all in line for rather large paydays, which could complicate the team’s payroll. How many $25 million-per-year players can the Red Sox afford?
The Competitive Balance Tax threshold will rise to $208 million in 2020 and $210 million in 2021. Yet, it will still cause constraints for the team.
The CBT is calculated by the Average Annual Value (AAV) of player salaries and bonuses earned by players on the club's 40-man roster, plus players who have been released or outrighted to the minors, or who are being paid a deferred salary after becoming a free-agent.
Pablo Sandoval's contract lingers as a significant chunk of dead money on the team's payroll. Sandoval is on the books for $18.455 million in 2019 -- plus another $5 million in 2020 because of the buyout.
The Red Sox surely would like a do-over on Rusney Castillo's seven-year, $72.5 million contract. The Cuban outfielder will be paid $11 million to play at Pawtucket this season and another $13.5 million in 2020 -- unless he opts out, which will never happen. His salary still counts against the CBT.
Though it's been more than a decade since Manny Ramirez last played for the Red Sox, he's still getting checks from the club. After the Red Sox traded Ramirez in 2008, they still owed him $32 million, which is getting paid out in installments of roughly $2 million. The annual payments will continue until 2026.
In total, that’s $31.5 million for three players who won’t be on the 40-man roster this season, but still count against the CBT. In 2020, that number will drop to $20.5 million.
In other words, those three players are affecting the Red Sox' spending this offseason and they will again next offseason as well.
The club already has some rather sizable contracts on the books for the next couple of years. Here’s a look:
● David Price will make $32 million annually from 2020-2022
● JD Martinez is slated to make $23.75 million in 2019 and 2020, and $19.375 million in 2021 and 2022. He can opt out after the 2019 and 2020 seasons, if he thinks he can earn more from the Red Sox or another club.
● Mookie Betts got $20 million for this season, his second-to-last year of arbitration eligibility. He will get a raise next year and will likely be seeking a contract of roughly $30 million annually following the 2020 season.
● Nathan Eovaldi will make $17 million annually through the 2022 season.
● Though Dustin Pedroia will make $15 million this season, his pay will fall to $13 million in 2020 and $12 million in 2021. It's unknown how well he can play, if at all, going forward.
Chris Sale, 30 in March, will make $15 million this season, meaning that he will be significantly underpaid for a pitcher of his caliber. He will likely be seeking a contract the magnitude of Price’s seven-year, $217 million deal. He’s at least as deserving, in as much as anyone can “deserve” that kind of money for throwing a baseball.
Xander Bogaerts, age 26, will make $12.5 million this season and will likely seek about $20 million per season on a contract of at least seven years in length.
Jackie Bradley, age 28, will make $8.55 million this season. Though he is not an exceptional hitter, he is an all-world center fielder who will likely command a contract of at least $10 million per season going forward.
If Martinez doesn’t opt out after this season and the club is able to retain Sale and Bogaerts, they would then have five players (including Price and Betts) making at least $20 million annually. That’s over $100 million for just five players, which is more than the 2018 payrolls of the Reds, Marlins, Pirates, Athletics, White Sox and Rays.
Let that sink in.
The Red Sox’ hefty payroll has already left the defending World Champions in the awkward position of heading into the 2019 season with Matt Barnes or Ryan Brasier as their closer. They will face even more difficult decisions over the next two off-seasons. There’s a strong chance the Sox won't be able to keep the entirety of their young core intact.
This is evidence that even big-market, high-payroll teams have financial constraints, just as the CBT intended.
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