Sunday, February 14, 2021

Michael Chavis: A Man Without a Position, Who Could Be a Man Without a Job

 


For Michael Chavis, the upcoming season with the Red Sox could be make or break. The 25-year-old will be battling for a roster spot in spring training, which is no sure thing since he still has minor-league options remaining. 

Chavis is a utility-man with no clear position. He plays second base well enough to fill in a couple of days a week, but not full time. He’s also played first base, but strictly in a platoon role, and he even played 12 games in left field last season. That sort of inconsistency doesn’t benefit most players, and it certainly makes it hard to shine. 

In 2019, Chavis slashed .254/.322/.444/.766 over 382 plate appearances (PA). His 18 home runs ranked second among MLB rookie second basemen, while his 58 RBI ranked first. However, there was an early warning sign when he struck out in 127 of those 382 PAs, in what amounted to a 33% strikeout rate.

However, Chavis regressed in 2020, when he slashed .212/.259/.377/.636 over 158 plate appearances. While his home run output dropped to five long balls, his strikeout percentage remained a worrisome 32%, which put him in the bottom 9% of the league. In August, he became just the fourth batter in Red Sox franchise history to strike out five times in a game.

Since he is just 25, has raw power and remaining options, Chavis still has value. But he can’t catch up to the high heater, and pitchers know this. Since he hasn’t been able to make the necessary adjustments to fix the hole in his swing, this major flaw will continue to be exploited. Though his positional diversity gives Chavis some value, he doesn’t look like an every day player at any one position. 

The signings of Kike Hernandez and Marwin Gonzalez have certainly limited Chavis’ opportunities at second base, where Christian Arroyo and Jonathan Arauz will also battle for playing time. It’s worth noting that Arroyo is out of minor-league options, so he can’t be sent to Triple-A without first passing through waivers, where he wold likely be claimed. That gives him an edge over Chavis to start the season. It should also be noted that the Red Sox need to open two 40-man roster spots to make room for Gonzalez and reliever Hirokazu Sawamura. That puts Chavis on the hot seat.

Defensively, Arroyo and Arauz are both superior to Chavis, whose calling card has always been his power stroke. So, if he’s not hitting bombs on a regular basis, yet continues to whiff in one-third of his plate appearances, Chavis will be on the outside looking in — a man without a job. 

The Red Sox are apparently trying to trade Chavis, though Chaim Bloom is said to have a high asking price. If you’re wondering why, again, Chavis is still just 25 and comes with five more seasons of club control. Add those assets to his power and his ability to play first, second and third (his natural position), and he has some value. 

Chavis needs to prove that value to the Red Sox and/or some other potential trade partner this season or he may find his big league career coming to a rather abrupt end. Sure, he could be sent back to the minors, continually waiting for a call to fill in for an injured player. But that’s not the life that any player wants to live after he's spent at least a year on a big-league roster.

That’s why this season is make or break for Chavis. We can hold out hope. After all, he’s just entering what should be his prime. 

Friday, February 12, 2021

Goodbye and Farewell, Andrew Benintendi. We'll Miss What Might Have Been.

Andrew Benintendi makes a balletic catch in the 2018 World Series at Fenway Park


The start of Andrew Benintendi’s Red Sox career was tantalizing. He finished second in the Rookie of the Year voting in 2017, after hitting .271 with 20 homers, 20 steals and 90 RBI.

In 2018, Benintendi took off like a rocket and entered the All-Star break hitting .297 with 14 homers, 57 RBI and an excellent .897 OPS. But then things quickly went south for "Benny." He hit .279 with just two homers and a .727 OPS in the second half.

In 2019, his decline was unmistakable. Benintendi slashed a tepid 266/.343/.431/.774, with 13 homers and 68 RBI. His home runs and RBI had declined for two successive years. Meanwhile, his walks dropped to a career-low 59, and his strikeouts soared to a career-high 140. This all occurred when he was just 24, in what should have been the prime of his career.

Though his 2020 campaign was cut short due to a rib injury, Benintendi looked utterly lost at the plate. He hit just .103 in 39 at-bats before it all came to a sudden halt. Little did we know that it would be the last time we'd see him in a Red Sox uniform. 

It’s really not a surprise in retrospect. Since the beginning of the 2019 season, Benintendi put up a .255/.341/.410 line, with just 13 homers in 667 plate appearances.

When I saw internet photos of Benintendi’s offseason training regimen over the last couple of years, I became concerned. He looked like he was trying to become a bodybuilder, rather than a baseball player focused on sport-specific training that would improve his on-field skills, such as sprinting, leaping and injury prevention. When I heard the nickname “Benny Biceps,” which resulted from those offseason training sessions, I felt like he was on the wrong track.

Sure enough, Benintendi now admits that he became obsessed with launch angle and generally trying to blast the ball out of the park.

“There was an effort on my end to get the ball in the air more,” Benintendi told the media after the trade. "I was going up there trying to hit for more power. I’m 5-foot-9, 175 pounds, so I know I’m not going to be up there hitting 30 homers a year.

At least he finally recognizes it. Too bad he didn’t catch on sooner. His career might not have stalled and he’d still be in Boston, rather than Kansas City.  

Whatever Benintendi was doing in his workouts, none of it seemed to help. Most shockingly, he went from fleet-footed to lead-footed in just a couple of years. Alex Speier of the Boston Globe wrote the following:

"The big league average sprint speed is about 27.0 feet per second. When Benintendi reached the big leagues in 2016, Statcast measured his average sprint speed at 28.6 feet per second—a mark that ranked as elite, the 89th percentile in the majors. His speed has declined in each subsequent year, down to a below-average mark of 26.6 in 2020 (again, small sample size warnings are necessary).

Evaluators say that Benintendi’s lack of speed disqualifies him from manning center field, and that his range in left has become quite limited too. So, there is more to Benintendi’s sudden and stark decline than just his offensive struggles.

So much was expected of Benintendi after being selected with the seventh pick in the 2015 draft. That’s the nature of being drafted that highly; you’re expected to perform and to excel. For a while, Benintendi was meeting those expectations. And his defense was sound enough for him to make two superlative catches in the 2018 postseason.

First, there was his diving grab, with the bases loaded, for the final out of Game 4 of the American League Championship Series against the Astros. Then there was his highlight-reel, leaping grab in front of the Green Monster in Game 2 of the World Series against the L.A. Dodgers. It was breathtaking stuff. 

Benintendi looked like a star for about a year-and-a-half, until he didn’t for about two years. It’s all hard to figure, and it’s actually sad. He was easy to root for. He's handsome, unassuming and has a folksy charm. His hair was so perfect that it looked like it should have its own agent. 

Now all three of the Red Sox brilliant young outfielders from the 2018 Championship team are gone: Benintendi, Mookie Betts and, likely, Jackie Bradley. That was unimaginable just two years ago. Such is the nature of pro sports; it's a “what have you done for me lately?” business.  

We’ll all root for Benintendi from afar as he suits up for the Royals. After all, we grew to really like the guy. We’ll hope he gets his career back on track, but maybe not too on track. It would be awful to see him resume an All Star trajectory in another team’s uniform, wouldn’t it?  

In the meantime, we can remember the good times with Benny in Boston, and we can remember that the Red Sox ultimately received five players in exchange for him: Franchy Cordero and four prospects. Aside from pitcher Josh Winckowski, we don’t know who the other three will be. Since the 2020 minor league season was cancelled, there was no way for the Red Sox (or anyone else) to evaluate these minor leaguers. Boston likely has an agreement with the Royals and Mets to create a list of players that pique their interest this season, from which they can then choose. So, it’s far too early to gauge the return for Benintendi at this point. 

Some may feel that the Red Sox sold low on Benintendi, and that the club would have been better off seeing if he can bounce back this season before dealing him. However, the Red Sox scouts and talent evaluators have been watching Benintendi’s progression and regression for four-plus seasons, so they know the player well. Apparently, they’ve concluded that Benintendi has reached his ceiling, which is lower than any of them ever thought. 

As Red Sox fans, we can only hope they’re right. As it is, we'll always wonder what might have been.

Monday, February 01, 2021

Thanks for the Memories, Dustin Pedroia


Dustin Pedroia’s great career has unfortunately, yet expectedly, come to an end.

The second baseman leaves the game firmly established as one of the greatest Red Sox players of all time, and his numbers back it.

Pedroia ranks among the top 10 in Red Sox history in seven different categories: hits (8th), doubles (6th), 
extra-base hits (8th), total bases (8th), runs (10th), steals (6th) and at-bats (9th).

Pedroia won the American League Rookie of the Year Award in 2007 and backed that by winning the American League MVP Award in 2008. He also won two World Series, four Gold Gloves, a Silver Slugger, and went to four All-Star Games during his career.

While Pedroia is listed as having a 14-year career, in reality he played just 11 seasons. He was a late-season call up in 2006 and played in only 31 games. And he was limited to a mere nine games over his last two seasons due to his damaged knee. So, Pedroia’s illustrious career was forged over eleven MLB seasons, and what he did in that span is truly impressive.

From 2007-2017, Pedroia established himself as one of the best all-around players in baseball. Over that span, he slashed .302/.368/.442, with 138 home runs and 138 steals. 

His knee troubles began in October 2016, when he had surgery to repair a torn meniscus in his left knee. Then Manny Machado spiked him at second base in April, 2017 and his left knee was never again the same. Pedroia had a total of four knee surgeries in 26 months, but none of them could get him back on the diamond, pain free and fully mobile again. 

Through 2017, Pedroia appeared to be on track for the Hall of Fame. But, being limited to just 11 seasons likely derailed his train to Cooperstown. Being held to a mere nine games from 2018-2020, a three-year stretch when he was still in his mid-30s, really limited Pedey's final career numbers and Hall of Fame credentials. If he'd remained healthy, he surely would inflated his stats considerably.

Pedroia finishes his career with a .299/.365/.439 batting line, 140 home runs, 394 doubles, 15 triples, 138 stolen bases, 1,805 hits, 922 runs scored and 725 runs batted in. His career batting average dipped below .300 because he went 2 for 20 in his brief 2019 comeback attempt.

The second baseman totaled 5 wins above replacement (WAR) six times in a nine-year span, including a whopping 8 WAR in 2011, a year in which he finished ninth in the MVP voting.

A player who totals 5 wins above replacement would typically be considered an All-Star and a player with a WAR of 8 or higher is typically an MVP candidate. 

Baseball-Reference credits Pedroia with 51.6 wins above replacement. However, the average Hall of Famer has a Baseball-Reference WAR of 63.2. 

Additionally, Bobby Grich has a career WAR of 71.1 and Lou Whitaker’s is 75.1. Both were second basemen and neither are in Cooperstown. 

Though he may not end up enshrined in the Hall of Fame, Pedroia clearly established himself as one of the greatest players of his generation and one of the greatest Red Sox of all time. And he was surely one of the most popular players of his time, both in Boston and beyond. Those are all fantastic achievements.

Undoubtedly, Pedroia has cemented his place in the Red Sox Hall of Fame, and in the hearts of Red Sox Nation. He had one hell of a career and he was beloved by his teammates, coaches, ownership, and even the Boston media. 

That’s all worth celebrating today, and every time we think of the "Laser Show” in the years ahead.