The Red Sox ended the 2019 season with a payroll totaling $241.7 million, the highest in baseball for the second-consecutive season. Despite their massive payroll, the Sox finished with an 84-78 record, good enough for third place in the AL East.
That’s surely not what ownership had in mind, nor the fans or the media.
The Sox ownership group has stated its goal heading into 2020 is to cut payroll to under $208 million. That's a reduction of more than $33 million.
Something's got to give. Clearly, the team won't be a big player in the free agent market this offseason. Additionally, some of the Sox' free agents will be allowed to walk, with no bidding by Boston.
Rick Porcello will not be back, which will save the club $21 million. Through five seasons with Boston, Porcello went 73-55, with a 4.43 ERA and 1.27 WHIP over 159 starts. Just twice did he reach 200 innings. For that, he was paid $95 million. Porcello was expected to be a solid No. 2 starter, but, with the exception of 2016, never lived up to that billing.
Mitch Moreland, who earned $6.5 million this season, will become a free agent and the Sox will likely say goodbye. Though he was a solid contributor both offensively and defensively, and is well-liked by his teammates, Moreland produced a 1.3 WAR this season, meaning he is replaceable for less money.
Steve Pearce, whose 2019 salary was $6.25 million, won't be back. We’ll always thank him for his 2018 post-season heroics.
By letting Porcello, Moreland and Pearce walk away, the Sox would save $33.75 million, which may solve their payroll problem.
However, they'll still need to replace those players. Perhaps the Sox view Michael Chavis as an able, and much cheaper, replacement for Moreland at first base.
How the club replaces Porcello is unknown. There is no starter in the minor league system that's prepared to take a rotation spot next season. The Sox haven’t successfully developed a major league pitcher since Clay Buchholz debuted in 2007, and his career was dicey. That’s a systemic problem. Once viewed as a potential starter, Darwinzon Hernandez is now viewed as a solid bullpen contributor.
The Sox released Eduardo Nunez earlier this season. His $4 million salary also comes off the books this offseason.
However, Brock Holt becomes eligible for free agency for first time this offseason. The Sox likely want him back and he will get a nice bump from his $3.575 million salary in 2019. The 31-year-old will probably get a three-year deal of $6-$8 million annually.
If JD Martinez opts out, the Sox may let him walk. He is due $23.75 million next season. Despite all he provides in terms of offense, Martinez is one of four Red Sox (David Price, Chris Sale, Mookie Betts) scheduled to make over $20 million next season. On top of that, the team does not view him as an everyday outfielder.
The Sox will likely make yet another overture to Betts, who has thus far insisted that he will find his market value in free agency next year. He will get a big bump in arbitration this winter. The Sox may have to decide on whether they can retain either Martinez or Betts, but it will be a gamble. The Sox might entertain the thought of trading Betts, rather than risk losing him for a mere draft pick a year from now.
Jackie Bradley had the lowest batting average (.225) of any center fielder to qualify for the batting title this year. Additionally, JBJ’s .738 OPS ranks ninth among the 14 center fielders who qualify, and that was his best mark over the past three seasons.
Bradley, however, is perhaps the best defensive center fielder in the game. The question is, how much value do the Red Sox place on that?
Bradley is eligible for free agency after the 2020 season and will likely make about $10 million in his final year of arbitration. If the Red Sox feel they can replicate his production for less money, the payroll-heavy club may seek to trade him this offseason. If no deal materializes, it’s possible that the club could even non-tender Bradley, though that may seem outlandish.
It’s worth noting that Andrew Benintendi and Betts can both play center.
In the unlikely event that the Sox can find a trade partner for Price, they'll deal him away. At age 34, his best years are well behind him and his contract is now an albatross. That’s precisely why no club will take Price unless the Sox pick up a hefty portion of his pact. They may be better off just keeping him.
One way or another, Boston's roster -- which is essentially the same group that won 108 games and the World Series in 2018 —will look quite a bit different when spring training opens next February.
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