Red Sox Poised for Yet Another Last Place Finish in 2024

 

Red Sox ownership's lack of interest in the team and regard for its fans is astonishing.

In the midst of self-imposed belt tightening, the Red Sox appear poised for yet another last place finish this season.

After having a $181.2M Opening Day payroll in 2023, Red Sox president Sam Kennedy said Friday night at the Winter Weekend event that the team’s payroll would probably drop again this season. The Sox currently have approximately $177.5M on the books for 2024, according to Roster Resource. Last year's figure ranked 12th in all of baseball, the first time in the 21st century that the Red Sox weren’t at least in the top ten in Opening Day spending. This year will mark the second.

So far, the club's only significant free agent signing was a two-year, $38.5M rebound deal for Lucas Giolito. Any further roster additions before spring training will likely be lower-tier free agents on short-term contracts. Yet, that could still require shedding some payroll first.

Meanwhile, the Sox still have the highest ticket prices in baseball. As long as Fenway Park remains a tourist destination for fans and travelers around the country, ownership is confident that they’ll continue to make plenty of money from ticket sales, Red Sox fans be damned.

This newfound frugality is unexpected and perhaps unexplainable. The Sox had the highest payroll in the game in 2018, the second highest in 2004 and 2007, and the third highest in 2013. The results were pretty spectacular each time.

No one should have expected Craig Breslow to come in guns blazing in his first year. He needs to assess the minor league system and see what he’s got. Which prospects does he really believe in? Who’s worth trading? This team is not two pieces from being a World Series contender, and Breslow knows it. He’s playing for 2025 and 2026. That said, he needs to do more this offseason to rebuild fan trust and give people a reason to go to Fenway and watch on TV. He needs to at least keep the Sox out of last place, make them competitive, and make them worth watching again.

Reasonable fans don’t want the Sox to do just anything; not every big ticket free agent makes sense and many will underperform their contracts. However, the Red Sox inability or unwillingness to make substantial improvements to the roster, particularly the rotation, are frustrating to the point of being maddening. 

Spring training is three weeks away. Here's the Red Sox projected 2024 rotation:

STARTER - CAREER STARTS, ERA, WHIP
Lucas Giolito - 178, 4.43, 1.25
Brayan Bello - 39, 4.37, 1.46
Nick Pivetta - 152, 4.86, 1.35
Kutter Crawford - 36, 4.74, 1.25

That leaves the rotation at least a man short. It's also a rotation mostly consisting of No. 4 and No. 5 starters, all of whom have career ERA's of roughly 4.50. Obviously, there is no ace to lead the staff. Tanner Houck and Garrett Whitlock have clearly proven that they belong in the bullpen, not the rotation. They are not solutions. The same could be fairly said about Pivetta and Crawford.

Yet, Breslow said in an interview that he’s comfortable letting Whitlock, Houck and Josh Winckowski compete for the fifth starter role. The team is already going to be relying on Pivetta and Crawford, both of whom should be in the bullpen anyway. 

The construction of the rotation is, at the least, complacent or negligent. It shows no regard for the team or the fans. All signs point to yet another last-place finish in 2024. 

The Sox have a decent core right now. They are not a World Series competitor, but why not sign Jordan Montgomery and at least make the club interesting and more competitive? How would giving him a 5-6 year deal screw up their timeline for contention? They seem to be placing all of their focus on the future and none on the present. They’re losing fans as a result. 

It’s pretty astonishing that after three last place finishes in the past four years, the Red Sox are still in the midst of a rebuild. The question of how much longer it will take is a really valid one. 

The Sox traded Mookie Betts four years ago, got nothing to show for it, and still haven’t recovered. If they had to sign one guy to a massive long-term contract, Mookie was that guy, not Rafael Devers, who they extended in a panic and under great public pressure. It’s quite apparent that the Sox grossly overpaid Devers (10 years, $313.5M), who had negative-9 defensive runs saved in 2023 and has negative-53 defensive runs saved in seven major league seasons. He'll need to move to DH sooner than later, and he's still just 27 years old! Screwing up the Mookie negotiations caused them to overplay their hand with Devers.

John Henry seems quite distracted by other interests; he didn’t even show up for Friday night's event. He wasn’t available to the media when Bloom was fired either, leaving the explaining to Sam Kennedy. Other than a few informal exchanges with reporters during the 2021 postseason and a few email exchanges with two reporters last February, Henry has not made himself available to the media in a press conference setting since February of 2020, almost four years ago. Yet, a lot has happened in the interim. The club has hired two managers, fired one chief baseball officer and hired another, lost a home-grown, cornerstone player in free agency, and given out the biggest contract in franchise history. They’ve also finished in last place three times in those four years. Yet, Henry is busy with other things. It shows. 

The team is being mismanaged and their brand is being ruined. Henry has clearly lost interest and should sell the franchise. Empty seats at Fenway and plunging NESN ratings may be the only way to get his attention.

Get ready for another long and disappointing season, Red Sox fans.

Facing Imperfect Situation, Red Sox May Have Done the Best They Could

Many Red Sox fans feel embittered that the big-market, big-spending BoSox traded Mookie Betts, rather than throwing an enormous sum of money (likely around $400 million) at him next offseason.

"Why the penny pinching?," some ask.

The Collective Bargaining Tax (CBT) threshold is $208 million this season; it will rise to $210 million next season. If a star player, like Betts, is paid “just" $35 million, he would occupy 1/6th of that team's payroll space, while the other 25 players get the remaining 5/6ths. That’s not really a wise allocation of resources -- even ample resources.

And then there's the wisdom (or lack thereof) of agreeing to a 10-12 deal with any player. Long term deals with star players always seem great... until they aren't.

When the Red Sox signed former Cy Young winner David Price to a seven-year deal in 2015, who thought they'd ultimately pay him $169 million to pitch a mere four years and then ask him to simply go away? The Sox will pay half of Price's salary for the next three years to pitch for the Dodgers.

When the Red Sox signed stalwart Dustin Pedroia to an eight-year extension in 2013, who imagined that he would play in a total of nine games from 2018-2019, and perhaps be unable to play at all over the final two years of the deal? In essence, the Sox got four years from Pedroia, but will pay him for eight.

These are just two recent examples; the list goes on and on across baseball.

It's easy for fans to complain about how owners spend their money and to be resentful when those owners refuse to hand out high-dollar, long-term contracts. In some cases, such complaints are warranted. In this case, they’re not.

Quite predictably, some fans are complaining that John Henry and Tom Werner are cheap. It's simply untrue.

Since that duo bought the Red Sox in Dec. 2001, they've been first, second or third in payroll for 13 of those 18 years. Moreover, they've been top-six in spending for every one of those 18 years.

Red Sox fans are lucky to have such a committed ownership group. Yet, many of us have become accustomed to this generous spending and now take it for granted. Other sports teams face legitimate spending limitations every season and their fans naturally feel aggrieved. Red Sox fans don't share these concerns, yet we've become jaded anyway.

Some argue that, even at 50%, paying the luxury tax penalty is a paltry sum for uber-rich owners like Henry and Werner.

However, the punishment is steeper than that.

By going over the CBT for the third consecutive year, the Red Sox would have exposed themselves to greater draft and international penalties for signing free agents, lesser draft-pick compensation in exchange for departing free agents, and they would have seen reduced revenue-sharing rebates. All of this needs to be considered. It's not a matter of cheapness and money saving; it's about being able to reinvest next year and beyond in order to build a sustainable on-field product.

As Alex Speier of The Boston Globe wrote back in December: “If the Sox scale back their payroll to $205 million next season before returning to 2019 level of $243.5 million in 2021 and 2022, they could save a total of $90 million to $100 million over the next three years.”

That’s not chump change. Take it all into consideration and it's easier to understand why the Red Sox traded Betts and Price.

Remember, the Sox weren't dealing from a position of strength. How many teams have the revenue to absorb the $43 million in 2020 payroll the Dodgers just took on?

Moreover, Price is 34 and didn't live up to the first four years of his contract; the next three years aren’t going to get better for a pitcher who posted a career-low 92 mph average fastball velocity in 2019.

Lastly, as great as Mookie is, the Sox were dealing a player who will make $27 million this season and comes with just one year of club control; he’s the classic one-year rental, and a very expensive one at that.

Collectively, this was all a tough sell for Chaim Bloom and the Red Sox. Perhaps, they did the very best they could, given the circumstances.

Was the (David) Price Right for Mookie Betts?

After last night’s blockbuster trade of former MVP Mookie Betts and former Cy Young winner David Price, Red Sox Nation is likely feeling a bit shocked. Everyone is surely asking, "Is this really the best the Red Sox could do?"

This appears to be a straight-up salary dump by Boston, which is very unusual for the club. Most of us aren’t accustomed to this.

By giving up their best all-around player (and one of the very best in the game), as well as their No. 2/No. 3 starter, the Red Sox seem to be writing off the 2020 season. At the least, this deal won't make Boston more competitive in the coming season.

But, look at it this way: the Sox finished in third place and missed the playoffs last year -- with Betts and Price. They can likely do the same again without them this year and save a lot of money in the process, while getting under the CBT. If the Sox kept Betts until the end of this season and gave him a qualifying offer, which he’d quickly reject, they'd only get a compensation pick when Betts walked. Alex Verdugo is a major league-ready talent, so he's worth far more than a compensation pick, who might take four or five years to get to the majors — if he ever makes it at all.

Verdugo became a full-time player with the Dodgers in 2019, playing in 106 games and getting 343 at bats. In that span, he slashed .282/.335/.449/.784 with 28 doubles, 14 homers and 49 RBI. The Sox surely like the fact that he comes with five years of team control.

Former Red Sox Lou Merloni reported that Boston offered Betts a 10-year, $300 million contract extension following the 2018 season. Betts countered with 12 years and $420 million and the deal fell apart. In other words, the two sides were miles apart and there was no bridging that gap.

As history shows, no player is worth a 10-year investment, much less a 12-year investment. The Sox were wise to walk away from the bargaining table. Six years from now, this will seem like a wise move. Remember, just four years ago, Sox' fans were thrilled when Price signed a seven-year deal. Oh, how the times have changed. Long-term contracts have a way of doing that.

So, what about Price?

ESPN’s Buster Olney reported that front offices in baseball told him if Price were a free agent, he would only be worth a one-year, $12 million deal, or two years at $18 million, because of his elbow issues. Everyone in baseball now has the same analytical information; almost all of them arrive at the same evaluations and conclusions these days. The Red Sox weren’t about to con anyone about Price’s value.

The Red Sox and their fans have to accept that Price’s seven-year, $217 million contract was a bad one from the start. He never lived up to it for the first four years (the 2018 World Series notwithstanding), and things aren’t going to get better over the next three. It was a mistake, and now the Sox are at least halfway free of the remaining obligation; they're picking up about half of the remaining $96 million on his contract.

Ultimately, after paying the Dodgers for the next three seasons, the Red Sox will have given Price a whopping $172 million for four years of service and one World Series Championship. It's a steep price and fans can argue over that value. But it makes Price's wearying tenure all the more bitter.

That isn’t to say Price was a bust. He posted a 46-24 record and 3.84 ERA in 103 appearances (98 starts) over four seasons. That’s not bad, but it's just not worthy of $32 million per season either. Oh, and Price never made an All Star team or earned even a single Cy Young vote while with Boston.

By the way, Price was set to earn 10/5 trade rights after this season, making this an ideal time, perhaps the only time, to trade him. If Price gets injured or is ineffective leading up to the trade deadline, the Sox will have dodged a bullet.

However, if Price excels in LA, every Sox fan will say, "Why can't we get guys like that?" Or, "We got fleeced!"

Yes, it’s a real bummer that the Red Sox will pay the Dodgers $16 million in each of the next three seasons to have Price pitch in LA. But the Sox might have found a diamond in Brusdar Graterol (what a name!); the righty throws a 101 mph sinker. The Red Sox prospect list has just been updated and Graterol is the new No. 1 prospect in Boston's system, according to FanGraphs. He just might be the Sox' fifth starter this season.

Despite paying the Dodgers half of Price's salary, in one fell swoop, the Red Sox have lopped $43 million from this year's payroll. That will give them lots of flexibility at the July deadline, next season and beyond. If they’re over-performing at midsummer, it gives them the ability to take on a player with a big contract.

Yes, it's a shame that the Sox didn't pull off this deal back in December, when many of the top free agents were still available. Imagine what the Sox could have done with the savings back then. But, as I've said previously, this deal is about taking a step back in 2020 in order to take two steps ahead in 2021 and beyond.

In case you're wondering why the Red Sox didn't make a deal with San Diego, consider this: the Padres wanted the Red Sox to take Wil Myers and pay half of his $68 million contract. Meyers is 29 years old. Over the course of his seven-year career, he's averaged a 1.39 WAR each season. Over his last three full seasons, he's averaged 169 strikeouts.

Since winning the 2013 American League Rookie of the Year Award, Meyers has failed to bat above .259 or compile an .800 OPS. That's a span of six seasons. In other words, he has never realized his promise or lived up to all the hype.

That's the guy the Padres wanted the Red Sox to accept... for Mookie Betts. Oh, and Meyers’ regrettable contract still has three years remaining.

There are only so many teams that could afford Betts' $27 million salary and even fewer that were willing to rent him for just one year with no guarantee that he’ll return in 2021. The Dodgers are one of the limited few with that capacity.

And the Dodgers were one of the few teams that was also willing and able to take on half of Price’s burdensome contract…all in the name of landing Betts, so that they can make one great World Series push and try to finally put their post-season woes behind them.

Red Sox Need to Think of 2021 and Beyond

The Red Sox need David Price and Mookie Betts to be competitive in 2020. Yet, the team may need to trade them both to be competitive in 2021 and beyond.

It's late January and the Red Sox have been unusually quiet on the free agent and trade fronts, unless you are inspired by the additions of Kevin Plawecki, Martin Perez and Jose Peraza.

With his hands tied by a payroll that remains about $27 million over the CBT threshold, Chaim Bloom has done nothing to improve an underperforming team -- at least as of yet.

Bloom is telling other teams that the cost of acquiring superstar Mookie Betts is taking on all or most of the $96 million owed to 34-year-old David Price, while also sending the Red Sox two top prospects. That’s according to ESPN’s Buster Olney.

Betts will make $27 million this season, and he surely expects his next contract to pay him at least $30 million per year for the next decade.

Unless the Red Sox can somehow unload Price, they can't likely afford to pay Betts next season or the following two years.

Why?

Price will make $32 million in each of the next three years, while Chris Sale will make $30 million in each of the next three years.

How many $30 million players can any team -- even a big market club like Boston -- bear?

Can the Red Sox really afford to have over $90 million dollars invested in just three players on an annual basis? My sense is no. It's just bad business.

At this moment, the 2020 team is largely the same group that won just 84 games and missed the playoffs last season. Yet, it's also mostly the same group that won the World Series the year before.

If ownership/management sense that this team is more like the former than the latter, then why not unload Betts and Price and reset the luxury tax?

The reality is this team has no shot in 2020, unless Chris Sale is fully healthy and pitching at a Cy Young level. Based on last year, that doesn't seem like a reasonable expectation.

If the Red Sox are able to unload Price with Betts, and get two top prospects, that's a deal they need to make. It's time to build for the future -- 2021 and beyond.

Hello, Dodgers?

Why the Red Sox Will Deal Mookie Betts

The Red Sox find themselves in a quandary this offseason. After having the highest payroll in the game for two consecutive years (the latter of which resulted in a third-place finish in 2019), ownership has stated its objective to lower the club’s payroll below the $208 million Competitive Balance Tax (CBT) threshold next season.

As it stands, the team has a projected payroll of $230 million next season (according to Fan Graphs), which means that roughly $22 million will somehow need to be shaved off to meet ownership’s objective.

This has led to the notion that the Sox may seek to trade Jackie Bradley Jr. this offseason. The center fielder is projected by MLB Trade Rumors to get $11 million in arbitration, a sum that surely outstrips his actual value. However, even if the Sox trade Bradley, they would still be about $11 million above the CBT. And then the Sox would need to replace Bradley, which would require an outlay to his successor. Perhaps the Sox can find a replacement for half the cost of Bradley, but that would make it even more difficult to get below the CBT.

Also, keep in mind that the Sox still need to find a fifth starter to replace Rick Porcello, who will most likely depart as a free agent. Though the team will surely experience a savings from Porcello’s $21 million annual salary, the entire $21 million won’t be eliminated since the Sox will still need to pay another starter.

The most obvious solution would be to trade Mookie Betts, who is projected by MLB Trade Rumors to receive $27.7 million in arbitration for the 2020 season.

Though the notion of trading the former MVP is heresy across Red Sox Nation, Betts has repeatedly insisted that he is determined to find his true market value in free agency next year. Though the Red Sox have previously tried to engage Betts’ in contract negotiations, to no avail, management has stated they will try once again this winter. It may be a last stand.

Betts admitted that he rejected an offer from the Red Sox following the 2017 season, which Joel Sherman of the New York Post reported was an eight-year, $200 million proposal. Betts will likely use Bryce Harper’s 13-year, $330 million contract and Mike Trout’s 12-year, $430 million extension as the parameters for his pending deal.

Betts may be better than Harper, but he is undoubtedly inferior to Trout, who isn’t merely the best player of his generation, but one of the greatest players of all time. Even if the Red Sox get Betts to agree to a 10-year contract, for whatever amount, its reasonable to ask if this is the best allocation of precious resources. Though Betts just turned 27 in October and is in the prime of his career, contracts of such length almost never turn out to be wise investments for the teams that agree to them.

Remember, a 10-year deal would pay Betts through his age-37 season. For comparison, Dustin Pedroia is 36 and has appeared in just nine games over the past two seasons; that was unimaginable when he signed his extension.

Consider the Red Sox history with long-term deals, which, for argument’s sake, I will refer to as any deal of at least five years in length. The following contracts are listed in total dollar value:

David Price - seven years, $217 million in 2015

Chris Sale - five years, $145 million in 2019

Carl Crawford - seven years, $142 million in 2010

Dustin Pedroia - eight years, $110 million in 2013

Daisuke Matsuzaka - six years, $52 million, plus $51 million posting fee (total = $103 million) in 2006

Pablo Sandoval - five years, $95 million in 2014

Rusney Castillo - seven years, $72.5 million in 2014

Nathan Eovaldi - four years, $68 million in 2018

Does anyone think that the Red Sox, in retrospect, would sign any of those contracts today? I think the clear answer is no. The team has been burned time after time. The Manny Ramirez deal (eight years, $160 million) was the only long-term pact that delivered true value.

The reality is that almost any contract of more than five years ultimately proves to be a mistake; teams are always paying for past performance.

John Henry and Tom Werner may reason that the Red Sox, with Betts leading the way, still finished in third place last season. Given their budget ambitions, there is no basis to argue that the Red Sox will markedly improve this winter or that the Yankees will regress. The Sox may be battling for second or third place once again, which ownership may rightly argue they can also do without Betts.

If Betts leaves as a free agent next offseason, the Red Sox would only get one compensation draft pick. If they trade him now, however, they might get as many as three proven prospects -- perhaps a team's top-five prospect, another top-10 prospect and a top-20 prospect.

Betts is undoubtedly a dynamic player, who possesses true five-tool ability. He is highly popular in New England, and for good reason. Yet, it’s a virtual certainty that whichever team signs Betts to his next contract will overpay and commit far too many years.

As I've argued previously, long-term contracts are bad for baseball — at least for the teams that sign them.

As it stands, the Red Sox will have five players on their roster making at least $20 million next season, three making at least $25 million and two making at least $30 million.

David Price - $32M
Chris Sale - $30M
Mookie Betts - arb estimate ~$27M
JD Martinez - $23.75M
Xander Bogaerts - $20M

Betts' next contract will almost certainly pay him at least $30 million annually. The big question is, how many $30 million contracts can one team carry -- even a big-market club like Boston?

My thinking is that the Red Sox will have at least one too many, no matter what.

How Will the Red Sox Reduce Payroll, While Remaining Competitive?

JD Martinez will be back with the Red Sox next season, which is both good news and bad news for the payroll-heavy club.

With JD Martinez choosing not to opt out of his 2020 contract, the Red Sox payroll now sits at ~$227.23 million, at a time when ownership has publicly stated its intention to get under the $208 million luxury tax threshold.

The organization will now have to seek alternative means to reduce payroll and, subsequently, its tax penalty.

Martinez's return next year will be great for the offense and will make Alex Cora's life easier, but it will also create great challenges for new vice president of baseball operations, Chaim Bloom.

Boston has a number of highly paid (or overpaid) players on its roster, which will make filling holes and building the 2020 team more difficult.

Red Sox Highest 2020 Salaries

David Price - $32M
Chris Sale - $30M
Mookie Betts - arb estimate ~$27M
JD Martinez - $23.75M
Xander Bogaerts - $20M
Nathan Eovaldi - $17M
Dustin Pedroia - $13M (may not play in 2020)
Jackie Bradley - arb estimate ~$11M

It's overly simplistic to say, "Just trade Price!" Saying that is easy; executing it is much more difficult. Everyone in baseball is aware of Price's age (34) injury history and health status. The Sox would likely pay another club about $10 million to have Price pitch for them. The wiser choice would be to keep him and hope for the best (30 starts, 200 innings, 3.50-4.00 ERA).

The Red Sox have $79 million committed to Price, Sale and Eovaldi for next season, which is extraordinary for just three pitchers. Though Boston may have (thankfully) shed Rick Porcello’s $21 million salary, they still need to replace him and there is no one in the minors ready to step up. That will necessitate finding an affordable free agent or making a trade, which comes with its own costs.

One distinct possibility for lowering payroll would be granting Jackie Bradley his arbitration award and then trading him. Bradley was worth just two wins above replacement last season, which is certainly a number that another outfielder could provide for a lot less money. Surely, the Red Sox love JBJ's glove and arm, but he has continually been an offensive under-performer since arriving in the majors in 2013. Bradley made $8.55 million last season and it's hard to argue that he's worth any sum above that. It's worth considering that the average MLB salary last season was $4.36 million.

It’s also worth noting that the Sox don’t necessarily need to find another center fielder to replace JBJ, since both Betts and Andrew Benintendi can fill that void. Adding a corner outfielder may be easier and more likely. In 2018 (the most recent year I could find data), right fielders earned an average salary of $5.2 million, with a median income of $3 million.

I don’t believe the Red Sox will trade Betts and I wouldn't advocate it. He is a fan favorite and a perennial MVP candidate. I think the team values him too much to trade him away. They are a big-market club and the owner has deep pockets. The Red Sox don't necessarily need to be the top bidder next year; they just have to be "in the ballpark.” Betts' loyalties to the organization, to Boston and the fans may be the ultimate determinant.

Whatever the team does to lower its current $227 million payroll to its stated objective of $208 million will be fascinating to witness. Such moves will require great creativity and, perhaps, some risks.

Chaim Bloom is now facing that challenge, yet he seems like a man who is up to the task. Surely, he knows how to do more with less. The Rays' payroll last season was $89.9 million, while the Red Sox' tab was $241.7 million.

Meanwhile, the Rays won 96 games and made the playoffs, while the Sox won just 84. Clearly, spending big money doesn't guarantee wins, and Bloom proved this.