The Red Sox' priority this offseason is pitching, pitching, and more pitching. The Sox have a series No. 3 and No. 4 pitchers in their rotation, with perhaps one No. 2 (Tanner Houck) but no clear No. 1. To be a playoff contender, a team needs a true ace. Every team has its version of a No. 1, but not every team has an ace — a Cy Young Award winner or contender.
Blake Snell is one such ace under consideration by Boston. One key advantage in Snell’s free-agent status is that he no longer has a qualifying offer attached to his services. Snell rejected the Giants’ qualifying offer last winter, and since the QO can only be issued to a player once in his career, any team is free to sign Snell without having to surrender any compensation. That would be very appealing to the Red Sox, as well as other clubs.
Let’s weigh Snell’s value as a free agent.
First, let’s start with age. Snell will turn 32 on Dec. 4. That’s an immediate concern. The average retirement age for Major League Baseball pitchers is 31.74 years, with a mean career length of 10.97 years.
Pitchers experience their prime between ages 27 and 29, with varying metrics reaching optimal levels during this period, according to Fangraphs. Pitchers generally see their velocity peak in their early 20s and steadily decline by a full mile per hour by age 26. After that, velocity drops more sharply and continues a steep decline into a pitcher’s 30s.
This is a primary problem with free agent pitchers, who generally reach free agency in their early 30s.
Snell relies heavily on his fastball. He has a 30.2% career strikeout rate, which is elite. Here’s some context for strikeout rates:
Average - 20%
Above average - 22%
Great - 24%
Excellent - 27%
So, Snell is literally off the chart. But when his fastball inevitably declines with age and hitters no longer fear that offering, they can more easily lay off his secondary stuff. This not only leads to fewer strikeouts, but also typically results in more walks. Snell's career walk rate is already 13.3%, which is quite high. The average walk rate for a starting pitcher in 2024 was about 10%. Simply put, Snell has elite stuff but below-average command.
Now let’s consider durability and reliability. Can Snell stay healthy over the full course of the season, and can he be relied upon to make at least 30 starts?
Over the course of his nine-year career, Snell has missed time due to adductor, groin, shoulder, and elbow injuries, the last of which required arthroscopic surgery in 2019. He even managed to break a toe while moving furniture.
The result is that Snell has pitched at least 130 innings just twice in his career, reaching 180 frames in both 2018 and 2023. He also happened to win the Cy Young Award both seasons. The takeaway is that Snell is neither durable or reliable. That's worrisome because players generally don’t get healthier or more reliable in their 30’s.
In each of the two seasons in which he won the Cy Young Award, Snell was extraordinary, posting ERAs of 1.89 and 2.25, respectively. However, those two seasons were offset by two other seasons in which he posted ERAs above 4.00: 4.04 in 2017 and 4.20 in 2021. Additionally, Snell posted a league-leading WAR of 7.1 in 2017 and 6.2 in 2023, both of which were MVP-level. However, Snell has never posted a WAR above 2.2 in any other season. For context, a WAR of 2 is considered merely average.
With Snell, every season seems to be a roll of the dice in terms of both performance and health.
Red Sox principle owner John Henry has built his career, and his billions, as an analytics guy. He knows the history; it’s generally a horrible idea to invest long-term dollars in pitchers in their 30s. David Price and Chris Sale, both of whom joined the Red Sox at age 30, are recent examples that bear out Henry's concern.
Snell’s agent, Scott Boras, famously misplayed the market last winter, resulting in Snell finally joining the Giants in late March. With all their leverage for a long-term deal having evaporated, Snell accepted a two-year, $62 million with the Giants that included an opt-out, which he has exercised. Boras may again seek a six-year deal for his 32-year-old client. Why not? Aim high. But it’s not realistic.
MLB Trade Rumors predicted that Snell would land a five-year, $160 million contract. Even five years is risky for a a 32-year-old pitcher, especially one with Snell's injury history.
Snell might be amenable to a four-year deal worth about $35 million per season, for a total investment of $140 million. Would the Red Sox also be agreeable to such a pact? Well, four years is certainly reasonable for an ace, and the Red Sox desperately need one. Would Snell make the Red Sox contenders? He’d certainly make them a better team, but it all relies on his durability and reliability, both of which have long been problematic. Don’t expect an innings eater, even when he's healthy.
The lack of a QO for Snell could be a deciding factor for the Red Sox, who have spent years rebuilding their farm system. Draft picks are prized across baseball, not just in Boston. After all, young players are generally healthier and they’re certainly cheaper, which brings cost certainty.
The Red Sox are also said to be interested in lefty Max Fried, who will be 31 in January, as well as righty Corbin Burnes, a former Cy Young winner who just turned 30 last month. Both are younger and more consistent than Snell. But both pitchers received and rejected qualifying offers from their former teams, which may lessen their appeal to some extent. Burnes will likely be more expensive and require a longer-term contract. MLB Trade Rumors projects a seven-year, $200 million deal for him. For what it's worth, the site predicts Fried will garner a six-year, $156 million pact.
These are the matters the Red Sox, and other clubs, are evaluating right now. From this perspective, Snell offers too much risk relative to his potential reward.
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