Free agency officially began this morning and the Red Sox may soon make a very expensive contract offer to free agent first baseman Eric Hosmer. But it wasn’t supposed to be this way.
Boston had big plans for minor leaguer Sam Travis, seeing him as their homegrown first baseman of the future. Mitch Moreland was simply supposed to be a one-year stop gap because Dave Dombrowski didn’t want to block Travis in the long term.
However, Travis disappointed this year, slugging just .342 in the majors and .375 at the Triple-A level. The 24-year-old was known for his bat and was expected to develop into a power hitter at the major league level. Yet, Travis struggled at Pawtucket this season, hitting .270 with just six homers and 24 RBIs in 304 at-bats.
Travis spent much of last offseason rehabbing from knee surgery, which may have contributed to his struggles. That said, the Red Sox are likely done waiting for him to develop into an everyday first baseman. The club will give him a shot in left field in the Dominican League, which could improve his prospect stock headed into next season.
Moreland, meanwhile, hit 22 homers and 34 doubles, while providing solid defense at first. However, the 32-year-old batted just .246 and was slowed in the second half by a broken toe and a bad knee. Moreland, who has a career .252 batting average and .317 OBP, is now a free agent. It’s likely that 2017 was his lone season in Boston.
Red Sox first basemen combined to hit a mediocre .248/.326/.430 in 2017. A major upgrade is very much needed and is almost certainly coming.
The struggles of Travis and Moreland illustrate why the Red Sox may get involved in the bidding for Hosmer, who slashed 318/.385/.498/.882, with 31 doubles, 25 homers and 94 RBI this season.
In seven seasons, the 28-year-old has a number of American League top-10 finishes: three times for batting, three times for hits, two times for runs scored and twice for on-base.
There aren’t many All Stars who are 3-time Gold Glove winners that reach free agency at age 28. Hosmer also played a prominent role on a World Series winner. That’s why he will likely get at least a six-year contract offer.
The Royals will reportedly make every effort to retain him and they will have write an awfully big check to do so. Yet, they will undoubtedly have plenty of competition for Hosmer's services.
Sam Mellinger of the Kansas City Star reports that one National League executive believes agent Scott Boras will attempt to get Hosmer an eight-year, $200 million deal.
Will the Red Sox go all in? They have a long track record of getting the player they want, as long as the cost doesn’t go above the value they place on the player.
Boston is an appealing place for many players. This is a team that is continually competitive (they've just won back-to-back AL East crowns), has a great young core and the financial resources to put a very good team on the field year after year.
The Boston Globe’s Nick Cafardo recently reported that players view the Red Sox organization as first-class and find it hard to leave. The players say they are treated very well and love the amenities afforded to them and their families. That reputation is known among players across MLB and it may work in the Red Sox favor this offseason.
One major complication, however, is the fact that the Red Sox are just $9 million under the luxury threshold. Teams that go over the mark have to pay a tax and, with the new labor deal, teams over the luxury tax threshold face worse draft pick compensation rules if they sign or lose certain free agents.
The tax threshold is $195 million under the new labor contract and rates are set at three levels: 20 percent for first-time payers, 30 percent for those owing for a second straight season and 50 percent for clubs paying three times in a row or more.
Hosmer could very well end up with the Red Sox, but it will surely be costly.
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