Bogaerts' Contract a Bridge too Far for Boston

 

Xander Bogaerts has agreed to a whopping 11-year, $280M contract with the Padres.

Though there were reports that Red Sox ownership had gotten involved in negotiations in recent days, a contract of that length and cost was a bridge too far for Boston.

Ownership appeared to recognize that they have a major PR problem. The fans weren’t happy with the Bogaerts' negotiations all season. The belated attempt to sign him was meant to address that.

However, it's hard to justify giving an 11-year contract to a 30-year-old shortstop, especially one who had significant defensive liabilities throughout his 20s.

Bogaerts entered the 2022 season with negative-55 defensive runs saved at shortstop from 2013-21. Yet, he had 4 defensive runs saved this season, which was 11th among MLB shortstops. It was the first time in his career he produced a positive number in that category.

Bogaerts is not going to develop more range and quickness in his 30s. The Red Sox knew full well that he would soon need to be moved off the position, to third or second base. If Boston has a genuine motivation to re-sign Rafael Devers (which it now seems to, more than ever), Bogaerts would have been indefinitely blocked at third. And with Trevor Story earning from $20M-$25M per season for the next five and potentially six years, Bogaerts was blocked indefinitely at second.

No one in their right mind would pay Bogaerts an average of $25M annually to DH when he's reached 30 home runs just once in 10 seasons.

Baseball has entered silly season. Many of the contracts being handed out are reckless to the point of absurd. The Padres had made $400M offers to both Trea Turner and Aaron Judge, only to be spurned. They were determined not to let it happen again, so they overpaid for Bogaerts. They will come to regret it.

The deal, by the way, comes with a full no-trade clause. Bogaerts and his contract will represent dead weight on San Diego's roster for the last half of the deal. Good for the Red Sox for showing restraint and not bowing to pressure.

As more than 100 years of history/evidence shows, the weighted-average OPS of a major league player peaks at age 29 and begins to plummet by age 32. 

So, 100 years of history shows that baseball player tend to peak by age-29 season and then begins to decline from there. For some players, it's slower and more graceful than others. Reaction time is the first thing to go. Batting averages tend to fall and quickness wanes. That's not good for a shortstop who already has limited range and isn't known for his speed.

Power is usually the last thing to go, which makes the contract for Turner (11 years, $300M) so absurd. Neither Bogaerts or Turner is a power hitter. Once the reaction time goes, a player who relies on speed and quickness becomes a liability. That will be the case with Bogaerts.

We can thank Bogaerts for 10 great seasons in Boston. The Red Sox likely got the best of him. He was a four-time All Star and two-time World Series winner with the Sox. He won five Silver Slugger Awards and was a quiet leader.

The Red Sox probably could have retained Bogaerts if they had acted sooner and more decisively, like back in spring training. They probably would have been able to retain him for something like six years, $150M. But once he reached free agency and all the offers that ensued, he was as good as gone.

Even if the Red Sox didn't do the right thing by getting Bogey locked up earlier this year, they ultimately did the right thing yesterday by letting Bogaerts walk while saying, Thanks for everything.

Red Sox Sign Trevor Story, Their Most Important Acquisition This Offseason

 

The Red Sox are in agreement with Trevor Story on a six-year, $140 million deal that has a unique opt-out clause. Story can opt out of the deal after four years, but Boston can negate the opt-out by picking up a $20 million seventh-year option, making it a seven-year, $160 million deal. Story will not receive a no-trade clause in the deal.

Whether Story opts out after four seasons or stays for all seven, the average annual value (AAV) of this pact is a very reasonable $22.86 million, which is a great deal for Boston. Avoiding a no-trade clause also benefits Boston.

Since the Rockies made a qualifying offer that Story rejected, the Red Sox will forfeit their second-highest pick and and will have their international signing bonus pool reduced by $500K.

Story will play second base, with Xander Bogaerts continuing to man shortstop, giving the Red Sox one of the best middle infields in baseball. It's worth noting that Alex Cora played 530 career games at second, which will provide Story plenty of useful coaching and insight as he seeks to make this transition during a shortened spring training.

Story’s addition gives the Red Sox lineup, which lost Hunter Renfroe's 31 homers and 96 RBI, some much needed punch. He represents a massive upgrade over Christian Arroyo at second, and he offers Boston an option when Bogaerts undoubtedly opts out of his contract at season's end.

Story has belted at least 24 homers in every season since his 2016 debut (high of 37 in 2018), with the exception of the shortened 2020 season, when he hit 11. Yet, that still put him on pace to hit about 28 homers over the course of a normal season. Story has posted an OPS of at least .900 in three of his six seasons, and slugged at least .500 in four of them.

The 2021 season, when he slashed .251/.329/.471, was considered a down year by Story's lofty standards. Yet, he still produced a 4.2 WAR, which is considered All Star caliber. The glove still matters and Story is a gifted all-around player.

Like most of the great hitters who’ve thrived at Coors Field, Story will face questions about how he’ll fare away from Denver.

Story hit .303 at home, but just .241 outside of Colorado. He also posted a .972 OPS in the Mile High City, but just a .752 OPS on the road.

However, plenty of hitters have left the advantageous environment of Coors Field and continued to succeed — Matt Holliday, DJ LeMahieu, Nolan Arenado, Corey Dickerson, Seth Smith, Dexter Fowler, and Chris Iannetta among them.

Additionally, Story is also a stolen base threat, having swiped at least 20 bases in three of the last four seasons. The only year he missed 20 swipes was 2020, when he still led the NL with 15 stolen bases. That’s amazing an amazing total for just 60 games.

For comparison, the Red Sox, as a team, had 31 stolen bases in 2020 and just 40 in 2021. Story will open up a whole new dimension for them.

The main concern might be Story's elbow, which was problematic last year due to inflammation. Some MLB insiders think that, going forward, he may be best suited for the less demanding second base. Yet, the Sox had to be okay with his medicals. Now they have a chance to see how the second base experiment works out this season.

It will be really interesting to see what the Sox do with Bogaerts now. Will they top Story’s contract to keep him in Boston or let him walk? Like Story, Bogaerts is also 29 and will surely be looking for a deal that would pay him at least $30 million annually and run for at least six years. It should be noted that Bogaerts is represented by Scott Boras.

We'd all like to see Bogaerts finish his career in Boston, but with Jeter Downs and Marcello Mayer in the pipeline, the Sox may not want to commit longterm to a player who is already showing a defensive decline.

Defensive metrics weren’t kind to Bogaerts last season, as he ranked 16th among shortstops in the Majors by defensive runs saved at minus-5, per FanGraphs. However, he made only nine errors in 523 chances, logging 1,169 innings. Consequently, Bogaerts had a fielding percentage of .983, his second best in nine years on the job.

On the other hand, fielding percentage is an antiquated way of evaluating defense and the advanced metrics have always been harsh in rating Bogaerts. Players generally aren’t charged with an error if they don’t get to the ball to begin with. The more modern metrics penalize Bogaerts for being a step slow to the ball or being out of position.

Since entering the league in 2013, Bogaerts has produced -50 defensive runs saved, by far the worst among qualified shortstops in that time frame.

Bogaerts, Boston's primary shortstop for nearly a decade, was asked this week how he'd feel about Story joining the Red Sox. He sounded quite positive.

“He’s a big bat," Bogaerts aid. "We know what he does defensively already. I think that bat would play really well at Fenway just with that short porch over there. He has a nice swing that’s kind of built for that. It would be nice if we could get an addition like that after some of the big names that we lost to free agency or traded away.”

"That’s a big boy," Bogaerts said of the 6-2, 213lb Story. "That’s a big bat right there. That’s an impact player.”

Those don’t sound like the words of a player who feels threatened or jealous. Bogaerts will probably be even more supportive now that he's assured of remaining at shortstop this season.

The addition of Story will likely light a fire under Bogaerts, who will be auditioning for a long-term pact and knows that the baseball world is watching. How will he fare defensively this season? Second baseman are less valuable than shortstops, and Bogaerts knows this.

Boston has a lot of payroll flexibility coming its way starting next season, when JD Martinez, Nathan Eovaldi, Jackie Bradley Jr., Christian Vazquez, Enrique Hernandez, Michael Wacha, Rich Hill, Matt Strahm and Kevin Plawecki all come off the books. A potential Bogaerts opt-out could result in their payroll plummeting to just $60 million, leaving a huge amount of money to fill out the team’s active roster next year.

Translation: There’s still plenty of money for Bogaerts. There's plenty of money for a number of great players in Boston next year and beyond.

This Red Sox Team Should Be Celebrated, Not Derided

 

Yes, the Red Sox getting swept by the Yankees in three straight home games was frustrating, dejecting and disheartening, especially when this team is vying for a Wild Card berth.

Sunday night's loss put Boston in the second Wild Card spot, one game behind their arch rivals, with six games left in their season. And Toronto is just one game behind Boston.

The Sox play three games in Baltimore against the 50-106 Orioles, and then finish out the season this weekend with three games in Washington against the 64-92 Nationals.

Those two teams are awful and the Red Sox could conceivably win all six games. Yet, this Red Sox team has been terribly inconsistent for the past two months and there are no easy or guaranteed wins for this bunch. 

While the Red Sox may beat up on the dregs of the major leagues, they are just 8-21 against teams with winning records since the trade deadline. That’s not an optimistic reality for a team with playoff aspirations. 

That said, the Red Sox are sort of playing with house money at this point. They were never supposed to be in this position in the first place. Fighting for a playoff spot in the season's final week was not in the cards for this club when the season started, according to the experts.

The Las Vegas sports books and Draft Kings all pegged the Red Sox win total at 80 ½.

I was a bit more optimistic. Here's what I wrote on April 1:

"Given their potent offense, I think the Sox are capable of 85 wins this season, which should be good enough for third place in the ever-challenging AL East."

Here we are on Sept. 27 and the Red Sox are 88-66, in third place in the AL East. The Olde Towne team is already three wins ahead of my optimistic projection, with six games to go. They're way ahead of what Vegas and Draft Kings projected.

No matter how many of these final six games the Sox win, they will almost certainly claim at least two of them, which would put them at 90 wins this season. That has to be viewed as a stunning accomplishment all by itself, well beyond any reasonable expectations.

The Red Sox used 33 pitchers this season, the most in franchise history. They also placed 11 players on the Covid injury list, which may have sealed their fate by early September.

This was supposed to be a bridge year anyway. The Red Sox will be a better team next season. Tanner Houck and Garrett Whitlock be better and more experienced. They will become rotation stalwarts, replacing Garrett Richards and Martin Perez, who spent much of this season as ineffective starters before being demoted to the bullpen. The Sox will likely target a starting pitcher in a trade or in free agency, as well.

Dustin Pedroia’s $12 million salary will finally come off this books this winter, freeing up some free agent money. However, the Sox will pay the Dodgers another $16 million for David Price next season, the final year of his current contract.

This team has a solid foundation, comprised by the aforementioned Houck and Whitlock, plus Chris Sale, Rafael Devers, Hunter Renfroe, Alex Verdugo and even Bobby Dalbec. And if the Sox do the right thing, Xander Bogaerts will be in Boston through the end of his career.

Hopefully, the worst of the coronavirus will be behind us all next year, and the Red Sox will not again have their roster devastated by quarantined players.

In short, there is much to look forward to in 2022. This year was just a preview and it gave us a lot to feel hopeful about. Good days are ahead, Red Sox fans.

Expect Danny Santana in Boston Soon, As Red Sox Shakeup Roster

 

The Red Sox entered the day with 217 runs scored, tied with the White Sox for the major league lead. That’s a byproduct of Boston’s major league-best .446 slugging percentage and .772 OPS. The Red Sox .264 batting average is also third in the majors.

However, all that offensive output is driven by just four players: 

J.D. Martinez - .340/.417/.601/1.018

Xander Bogaerts - .342/.401/.605/1.006

Rafael Devers - .278/.354/.583/.937

Alex Verdugo - .284/.345/.446/.791

Those four players are masking the deficiencies in the rest of the lineup, not just those in the bottom third of the order.

Marwin Gonzalez - .218/.310/.315/.624

Hunter Renfroe - .225/.258/.392/.650

Bobby Dalbec - .211/.262/.395/.657

Enrique Hernandez - .237/.296/.421/.717

Franchy Cordero - .167/.222/.226/.448

Gonzalez offers the team tremendous defensive versatility, making up for his offensive shortcomings. Similarly, Renfroe’s cannon-like arm and deft ability to patrol right field also make him an asset. 

The Sox still believe in Bobby Dalbec, who is coming off a 2020 showcase in which he delivered 8 homers and 16 RBI in just 80 at bats. In that brief span the first baseman compiled a .359 OBP and a .600 slugging; that's why there's still so much hope. Though Gonzalez could replace Dalbec at first, that would eliminate Gonzo's greatest asset: the ability to play multiple positions each week.

Hernandez could and should lose his leadoff spot. But, like Gonzalez, his defensive versatility assures him a spot in the lineup each day.

Then there’s Cordero, who simply isn’t justifying a roster spot at this point. Though he is speedy for a big guy, Cordero is not noted for his defense. With a roster shakeup in the offing, Cordero will almost certainly be the odd man out.

Who would replace him? Danny Santana, whom the Red Sox signed to a minor-league deal in March. 

Like Gonzalez and Hernandez, Santana can play virtually any defensive position, other than catcher. Then there’s his offensive versatility; Santana is also a switch-hitter. The super-utility player suffered a serious foot infection during spring training, which delayed his season. However, he has been raking during his minor-league rehab assignment and could be called up any day now.

The rub is that Santana is not on the 40-man roster, so a spot would have to be created. In other words, someone else needs to go. Though the Sox can demote Cordero since he has minor league options, they will not remove him from the 40-man roster.

Michael Chavis could also be sent back to Triple-A, but he will not be removed from the 40-man either.

Most likely, Brandon Brennan, whom the Red Sox claimed off waivers from Seattle on May 3, will be designated for assignment, creating space for Santana.

Boston has been operating with a 14-man pitching staff this season, which they’ve needed. That’s because not one Red Sox starter is averaging as many as six innings per outing this year, which has put a lot of pressure on the bullpen. That extra man is a nice luxury for Alex Cora. 

However, something has to give and the woeful output by half the Red Sox lineup may take precedence over pitching depth, at least at this point in the season. 

Xander Bogaerts vs Nomar Garciaparra: Who Is/Was Better?

 

This week, Xander Bogaerts became the 30th player in Red Sox history to play 1,000 games with the club. And he’s just the 10th Sox player to do it before turning 29 years old. He would have reached the milestone last year, if not for the pandemic-shortened season.  

I’m a big Bogaerts’ fan; I think we all are. Bogey is on the short list of greatest shortstops in Red Sox history, a group that also includes Hall of Famer Joe Cronin, Johnny Pesky, Rico Petrocelli and, of course, Nomar Garciaparra.  

Cronin retired as a player in 1945, and then went on to a 15-year managerial career. Pesky retied in 1952. Petrocelli exited the game in 1976. Most current fans never saw any of them play. Nomar played for the Red Sox as recently as 2004. 

There’s a recency bias that favors both Bogaerts and Garciaparra, but the numbers do too. 

Since the two players appeared in nearly the same number of games and had essentially the same number of at-bats with the Red Sox, this is a great time to assess and compare the two. Who is/was better?

Nomar (age 30) - 966 games, 3968 AB, 709 R, 1281 H, 279 2B, 50 3B, 178 HR, 690 RBI, 279 BB, 406 K, 84 SB, .323/.370/.553/.923

Xander (age 28) - 1000 games, 3866 AB, 597 R, 1125 H, 246 2B, 14 3B, 124 HR, 549 RBI, 350 BB, 776 K, 63 SB, .291/.352/.458/.810 

As you can see, Nomar appeared in fewer games and had fewer at-bats than Xander, yet has a significant edge in every single category, except walks. Yet, he still had a better on-base percentage. 

When it comes to offense, Nomar was clearly the superior player; he was a generational talent who would have been elected to the Hall of Fame had his body not broken down at such an early age. Garciaparra was plagued by a genetic condition (exertional compartment syndrome) that affected his connective tissues. HIs career was over by age 35, and he never played in more than 122 games over his final six seasons. In fact, he appeared in just 55 and 65 games, respectively, over his last two seasons. 

Garciaparra was Rookie of the Year, a six-time All Star, won two batting titles and a Silver Slugger. He had five top-ten MVP finishes, including runner up in ’98. 

Bogaerts is a two-time All Star, has won three Silver Sluggers, and is a two time World Series champion. He's had one top-five MVP finish. 

Neither player was/is particularly noted for their defense. For example, neither ever won a Gold Glove Award. 

Over 11 seasons, Garciaparra posted a .968 fielding percentage at shortstop. He had 1606 putouts in 4710 chances and made 149 errors.

Over nine seasons, Bogaerts has accumulated a .977 fielding percentage. He has 1202 putouts in 3573 chances and has made 82 errors. 

Slight advantage, Bogaerts.

Bogaerts is just 28 and, barring injury, has roughly another decade to build his case for Hall of Fame consideration. He is certainly on that trajectory at present. 

But when it comes to who was better after roughly the same number of games and at-bats, the answer, undoubtedly, is Garciaparra. 

Though he was often overshadowed by his contemporaries, Alex Rodriguez (who was PED-enhanced) and Derek Jeter (who won five World Series playing for the Yankees, arguably the most famous and illustrious sports franchise in the world), Garciaparra was better than Jeter and was nearly the equal of the freakish Rodriguez.  

Garciaparra’s career, despite its greatness, will always be a matter of what might have been. He averaged just 84 games a season over his final six years.

Nine years into his career, Bogaerts is still in his prime and he is flourishing. He continues to write his story each day, and what a story it is. 

Enjoy every moment of it, Red Sox fans. As Nomar knows all too well, you never know when, or how quickly, it will come to an end.