Xander Bogaerts has agreed to a whopping 11-year, $280M contract with the Padres.
Though there were reports that Red Sox ownership had gotten involved in negotiations in recent days, a contract of that length and cost was a bridge too far for Boston.
Ownership appeared to recognize that they have a major PR problem. The fans weren’t happy with the Bogaerts' negotiations all season. The belated attempt to sign him was meant to address that.
However, it's hard to justify giving an 11-year contract to a 30-year-old shortstop, especially one who had significant defensive liabilities throughout his 20s.
Bogaerts entered the 2022 season with negative-55 defensive runs saved at shortstop from 2013-21. Yet, he had 4 defensive runs saved this season, which was 11th among MLB shortstops. It was the first time in his career he produced a positive number in that category.
Bogaerts is not going to develop more range and quickness in his 30s. The Red Sox knew full well that he would soon need to be moved off the position, to third or second base. If Boston has a genuine motivation to re-sign Rafael Devers (which it now seems to, more than ever), Bogaerts would have been indefinitely blocked at third. And with Trevor Story earning from $20M-$25M per season for the next five and potentially six years, Bogaerts was blocked indefinitely at second.
No one in their right mind would pay Bogaerts an average of $25M annually to DH when he's reached 30 home runs just once in 10 seasons.
Baseball has entered silly season. Many of the contracts being handed out are reckless to the point of absurd. The Padres had made $400M offers to both Trea Turner and Aaron Judge, only to be spurned. They were determined not to let it happen again, so they overpaid for Bogaerts. They will come to regret it.
The deal, by the way, comes with a full no-trade clause. Bogaerts and his contract will represent dead weight on San Diego's roster for the last half of the deal. Good for the Red Sox for showing restraint and not bowing to pressure.
As more than 100 years of history/evidence shows, the weighted-average OPS of a major league player peaks at age 29 and begins to plummet by age 32.
So, 100 years of history shows that baseball player tend to peak by age-29 season and then begins to decline from there. For some players, it's slower and more graceful than others. Reaction time is the first thing to go. Batting averages tend to fall and quickness wanes. That's not good for a shortstop who already has limited range and isn't known for his speed.
Power is usually the last thing to go, which makes the contract for Turner (11 years, $300M) so absurd. Neither Bogaerts or Turner is a power hitter. Once the reaction time goes, a player who relies on speed and quickness becomes a liability. That will be the case with Bogaerts.
We can thank Bogaerts for 10 great seasons in Boston. The Red Sox likely got the best of him. He was a four-time All Star and two-time World Series winner with the Sox. He won five Silver Slugger Awards and was a quiet leader.
The Red Sox probably could have retained Bogaerts if they had acted sooner and more decisively, like back in spring training. They probably would have been able to retain him for something like six years, $150M. But once he reached free agency and all the offers that ensued, he was as good as gone.
Even if the Red Sox didn't do the right thing by getting Bogey locked up earlier this year, they ultimately did the right thing yesterday by letting Bogaerts walk while saying, Thanks for everything.
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