Rafael Devers Is Not a $300M Player

 A big divide remains in how the Red Sox value Rafael Devers and how he values himself.

The third baseman is supremely confident, viewing himself uniquely among his major league peers. He has made public statements that clearly indicate his belief in himself: 

"I’m a different player.”

"I know my worth.”

"I know the type of money I should be making.”

"I’m not focused on what other guys are making or what they are doing. I’m more focused on what I’m doing on the field and what I’m worth.”

These are the words of a self-assured young man, who doesn’t seem inclined to take any sort of hometown discount to re-sign with the Red Sox.

In Spring Training, the Red Sox reportedly offered Devers an extension in the neighborhood of eight years, $168 million — well below his market value.

The Red Sox recently raised their offer to Devers, but there is still about a $100 million gap between the two sides, according to Jon Heyman of the New York Post.

"Word is the Red Sox have now raised their offer to $200 million-plus, probably necessary given the Braves signed less-experienced star third baseman Austin Riley for $212 million," Heyman wrote. "However, with Devers only a year away from free agency, he seeks at least 10 years for $300 million-plus."

That's a big ask by Devers and big gap between the two sides.

No one doubts Devers’ ability with a bat in his hand. The issue comes down to his defense or lack thereof.

Advanced metrics have graded Devers as a subpar third baseman for his entire career.

In 2018, his first full season, Devers led the major leagues with 24 errors.

In 2019, he led all major league third basemen with 22 errors.

In the pandemic shortened 2020 season, Devers led all major league players with 14 errors, more than twice as many as any other AL third baseman, and had the lowest fielding percentage, .891, of all major league third basemen.

In 2021, Devers committed 22 errors, the highest total among major league third baseman, and the second-highest total among all players.

In 2022, he had 14 errors, a good year by his standards. However, he still led all AL third basemen. He also rated as six runs below average by measure of Defensive Runs Saved and two runs below par according to Statcast.

In sum, Devers has led either all American League third basemen or all major league third basemen in errors every year for five straight years.

He’s also rated as a below-average defender by measure of Defensive Runs Saved in every season of his career.

Baseball is a two-way sport, yet Devers is a defensive liability. He’s simply not a $300M player.

Devers will be 27 when he enters free agency. An eight-year pact would take him through his age 34 season, which is reasonable. A whopping $30M per season over eight years would amount to $240M. A 10-year pact at that AAV would be excessive and quite risky.

Devers is listed at 240lbs and could get bigger. He has been a sub-standandard third baseman his entire career. He will soon need to move off third. However, first base will likely occupied by Tristan Casas for at least the next six years.

Third baseman are more highly valued and therefore more highly paid than first baseman, who are more highly valued and higher paid than designated hitters. Paying Devers long-term third baseman money when you know he has to move to first or DH is bad business. 

The Red Sox know this. So do most other clubs.