Bogaerts' Contract a Bridge too Far for Boston

 

Xander Bogaerts has agreed to a whopping 11-year, $280M contract with the Padres.

Though there were reports that Red Sox ownership had gotten involved in negotiations in recent days, a contract of that length and cost was a bridge too far for Boston.

Ownership appeared to recognize that they have a major PR problem. The fans weren’t happy with the Bogaerts' negotiations all season. The belated attempt to sign him was meant to address that.

However, it's hard to justify giving an 11-year contract to a 30-year-old shortstop, especially one who had significant defensive liabilities throughout his 20s.

Bogaerts entered the 2022 season with negative-55 defensive runs saved at shortstop from 2013-21. Yet, he had 4 defensive runs saved this season, which was 11th among MLB shortstops. It was the first time in his career he produced a positive number in that category.

Bogaerts is not going to develop more range and quickness in his 30s. The Red Sox knew full well that he would soon need to be moved off the position, to third or second base. If Boston has a genuine motivation to re-sign Rafael Devers (which it now seems to, more than ever), Bogaerts would have been indefinitely blocked at third. And with Trevor Story earning from $20M-$25M per season for the next five and potentially six years, Bogaerts was blocked indefinitely at second.

No one in their right mind would pay Bogaerts an average of $25M annually to DH when he's reached 30 home runs just once in 10 seasons.

Baseball has entered silly season. Many of the contracts being handed out are reckless to the point of absurd. The Padres had made $400M offers to both Trea Turner and Aaron Judge, only to be spurned. They were determined not to let it happen again, so they overpaid for Bogaerts. They will come to regret it.

The deal, by the way, comes with a full no-trade clause. Bogaerts and his contract will represent dead weight on San Diego's roster for the last half of the deal. Good for the Red Sox for showing restraint and not bowing to pressure.

As more than 100 years of history/evidence shows, the weighted-average OPS of a major league player peaks at age 29 and begins to plummet by age 32. 

So, 100 years of history shows that baseball player tend to peak by age-29 season and then begins to decline from there. For some players, it's slower and more graceful than others. Reaction time is the first thing to go. Batting averages tend to fall and quickness wanes. That's not good for a shortstop who already has limited range and isn't known for his speed.

Power is usually the last thing to go, which makes the contract for Turner (11 years, $300M) so absurd. Neither Bogaerts or Turner is a power hitter. Once the reaction time goes, a player who relies on speed and quickness becomes a liability. That will be the case with Bogaerts.

We can thank Bogaerts for 10 great seasons in Boston. The Red Sox likely got the best of him. He was a four-time All Star and two-time World Series winner with the Sox. He won five Silver Slugger Awards and was a quiet leader.

The Red Sox probably could have retained Bogaerts if they had acted sooner and more decisively, like back in spring training. They probably would have been able to retain him for something like six years, $150M. But once he reached free agency and all the offers that ensued, he was as good as gone.

Even if the Red Sox didn't do the right thing by getting Bogey locked up earlier this year, they ultimately did the right thing yesterday by letting Bogaerts walk while saying, Thanks for everything.

Rafael Devers Is Not a $300M Player

 A big divide remains in how the Red Sox value Rafael Devers and how he values himself.

The third baseman is supremely confident, viewing himself uniquely among his major league peers. He has made public statements that clearly indicate his belief in himself: 

"I’m a different player.”

"I know my worth.”

"I know the type of money I should be making.”

"I’m not focused on what other guys are making or what they are doing. I’m more focused on what I’m doing on the field and what I’m worth.”

These are the words of a self-assured young man, who doesn’t seem inclined to take any sort of hometown discount to re-sign with the Red Sox.

In Spring Training, the Red Sox reportedly offered Devers an extension in the neighborhood of eight years, $168 million — well below his market value.

The Red Sox recently raised their offer to Devers, but there is still about a $100 million gap between the two sides, according to Jon Heyman of the New York Post.

"Word is the Red Sox have now raised their offer to $200 million-plus, probably necessary given the Braves signed less-experienced star third baseman Austin Riley for $212 million," Heyman wrote. "However, with Devers only a year away from free agency, he seeks at least 10 years for $300 million-plus."

That's a big ask by Devers and big gap between the two sides.

No one doubts Devers’ ability with a bat in his hand. The issue comes down to his defense or lack thereof.

Advanced metrics have graded Devers as a subpar third baseman for his entire career.

In 2018, his first full season, Devers led the major leagues with 24 errors.

In 2019, he led all major league third basemen with 22 errors.

In the pandemic shortened 2020 season, Devers led all major league players with 14 errors, more than twice as many as any other AL third baseman, and had the lowest fielding percentage, .891, of all major league third basemen.

In 2021, Devers committed 22 errors, the highest total among major league third baseman, and the second-highest total among all players.

In 2022, he had 14 errors, a good year by his standards. However, he still led all AL third basemen. He also rated as six runs below average by measure of Defensive Runs Saved and two runs below par according to Statcast.

In sum, Devers has led either all American League third basemen or all major league third basemen in errors every year for five straight years.

He’s also rated as a below-average defender by measure of Defensive Runs Saved in every season of his career.

Baseball is a two-way sport, yet Devers is a defensive liability. He’s simply not a $300M player.

Devers will be 27 when he enters free agency. An eight-year pact would take him through his age 34 season, which is reasonable. A whopping $30M per season over eight years would amount to $240M. A 10-year pact at that AAV would be excessive and quite risky.

Devers is listed at 240lbs and could get bigger. He has been a sub-standandard third baseman his entire career. He will soon need to move off third. However, first base will likely occupied by Tristan Casas for at least the next six years.

Third baseman are more highly valued and therefore more highly paid than first baseman, who are more highly valued and higher paid than designated hitters. Paying Devers long-term third baseman money when you know he has to move to first or DH is bad business. 

The Red Sox know this. So do most other clubs.

MLB Is in Decline

 

A variety of statistics reveal that baseball — I’m talking about the very product on the field — is in decline.

Batting .300 proved to be quite a rare accomplishment this year. There are roughly 400 non-pitchers on big league rosters at any given time. Yet, only 11 major league hitters managed to bat at least .300 this season. 

Even worse, the league-wide batting average was just .243. You have to go back more than half a century to find this sort of ineptitude. The last time the league-wide average was this low was 1968, when it fell to .237. The year before, 1967, it was .242.

Across the majors, there were 39,677 hits this season and 40,812 strikeouts. That's pathetic. Oddly, just one player (Kyle Schwarber) whiffed at least 200 times. So, that .243 league average was also the result of a lot of weak ground balls, pop outs and fly outs.

Not a single major leaguer recorded as many as 200 hits this season, a stunning decline from what was once common for the better hitters in the game. Hitting has become a lost art.

And only 10 players scored at least 100 runs. Again, that’s just awful.

The fundamentals of the game are in ruins.

The 1968 season was known as the “Year of the Pitcher.” Batting averages and scoring had been dropping for several years, while strikeouts had been rising. Sound familiar? In response, MLB lowered the mound and shrank the strike zone. Then the American League instituted the designated hitter in 1973.

What will MLB do now? Next season will see the adoption of pitch clocks, larger bases, bans on defensive shifts, and limits on pickoff moves. Let’s hope it all results in more action.   

On the pitching side, the numbers show an equally alarming decline.

Just eight pitchers reached the 200-innings threshold, which used to be routine.

Though batters now strike out at a horrendous rate, just 11 pitchers notched at least 200 Ks, which was also routine for top pitchers in previous decades. Why the discrepancy? As noted, starters now throw relatively few innings. So, relievers are making up all those innings that used to be pitched by starters.

Furthermore, just one pitcher won 20 games this year.

MLB is at a crossroads. Games are too long and the action too limited. The ’Three True Outcomes’ (strikeouts, walks and home runs) are killing action because the ball isn’t put in play often enough. This season, 33.5% of all plate appearances ended in one of the Three True Outcomes. It's affecting the game and it's showing up in attendance figures.

MLB attendance was down 5.7% compared to 2019, the season before the pandemic. MLB saw its lowest attendance since 1997. The sport has seen a decline in attendance for nine consecutive seasons, excluding the pandemic-shortened season in 2020. 

To be fair, MLB isn't alone. Average NBA and NHL attendance was down 3.7% and 9.3%, respectively, compared to 2019. 

Where it goes from here remains to be seen. The owners, however, are not struggling.

A report from Front Office Sports said that Major League Baseball is expecting record revenue for 2022, exceeding the $10.7 billion from 2019, the last full season before the pandemic. However, obviously that is due to raising prices for tickets, merchandise, and food and beverage sales.

Baseball needs more than just home runs and strikeouts to be interesting. Let’s hope that the rule changes coming next season help to speed up the game and increase on-field action, which they are intended to do. Baseball desperately needs it. 

What Are We to Make of This Unpredictable Red Sox Organization?

The Red Sox have spent the last decade zig-zagging from worst to first, with a couple of quick playoff exits and two World Series Championships, all in dizzying fashion. It makes it really difficult to figure out this team’s identity. 

No club can be expected to win their division every year, much less the World Series. But this organization veers from horrible to extraordinary far too often, spending too many seasons in the horrible category. Take a look at the schizophrenic nature of this club over the past decade:

2012: 69-93, last place

2013: 97-65, first place (won World Series 4-2)

2014: 71-91, last place

2015: 78-84, last place

2016: 93-69, first place (lost ALDS 3-0)

2017: 93-69, first place (lost ALDS 3-1)

2018: 108-54 first place (won World Series 4-1)

2019: 84-78, third place

2020: 24-36, last place

2021: 92-70, second place (lost ALCS 4-2)

2022:  last place

Chaim Bloom has now been at the helm for three seasons. His mission, he's said repeatedly, is to make the Red Sox a contender, year after year. He intends to balance both near-term and long-term concerns. That’s laudable, but it doesn’t seem to be working. The Sox have finished in last place two times in three seasons on Bloom’s watch. 

None of the players drafted durning Bloom’s term will impact the big league roster for at least a few more years, if ever. Prospects are a gamble and most never even play in the big leagues, never mind become stars or even starters. 

Bloom has so far signed just one star free agent, Trevor Story, handing out the only long-term, high-dollar contract of his tenure (six years, $140M). This isn’t the path to success in a big market, such as Boston. The region loves its sports stars. 

Most of the current money on Boston’s books was here before Bloom arrived. But the result is still troubling. The Red Sox remain in last place in the AL East, behind even the Baltimore Orioles, who have about one-fifth of Boston's payroll.

The fact that the Red Sox are poised to end this season in last place, yet over the luxury tax threshold, is inexplicable because it’s unimaginable. 

John Henry has a right to be angry.

Money needs to be spent this winter, but it needs to be spent wisely. The Red Sox need more high-character leaders in their clubhouse and dugout. When the Sox won the World Series in 2013, they did so on the backs of just such players: Shane Victorino, Mike Napoli, Jonny Gomes, David Ross and Ryan Dempster. All of them were relatively inexpensive, free-agent veterans. Ben Cherington spread the money around wisely, addressing many needs. 

That would be good advice for Bloom this winter. But first he needs to be willing to spend. 

Improving the Red Sox via trades hasn’t proved to be Bloom’s forte. He lost the Mookie Betts trade, the Andrew Benintendi trade, and the Hunter Renfroe trade.

The only one he got right was Brandon Workman and Heath Hembree for Nick Pivetta and Connor Seabold.

To this point, Bloom doesn't look like a baseball savant.

The Rafael Devers Era in Boston Seems to Be Nearing Its End

 

Rafael Devers could soon be waving goodbye to Red Sox fans.

It’s been reported that Juan Soto turned down the Nationals’ 15-year, $440 million contract offer. To be clear, Soto turned down the biggest offer in the history of baseball, which is stunning.

Soto, who won't become a free agent until after 2024 season, has balls. He clearly believes he can get an even higher offer elsewhere. It's a big gamble; he'd better not get hurt in the next 2 1/2 seasons.

The issue obviously comes down to average annual value (AAV). Soto is a Scott Boras client; he not only wants the biggest contract in history, but also the highest AAV.

The $29.3 million per year in the Nationals' offer would rank only 15th among players, based on their 2022 salaries. That’s not good enough.

After repeatedly insisting that they wouldn’t trade Soto because they were determined to extend him, the Nats are now listening to trade offers.

This brings us to us to Rafael Devers, who has already rejected a contract extension offer made by the Red Sox in March because it was too low. Devers noted at the time that the Red Sox had never previously approached him about an extension. In retrospect, that was a mistake.

This is what Devers said after agreeing to his one-year, $11.2 million arbitration deal in March:

"It was tough, obviously, having to go back and forth about what my worth was because we have other guys they were saying, ‘This is what they are slotted at.’ But I was like, ‘That’s not me. I’m a different player and I know the type of player that I am.’ That’s really what it was."

"We all want to make a lot more money because of the performance and what we do for the team. That’s something that may be hard at first, but you know you’re worth and I know my worth. What it comes down to is I know the type of money I should be making, so that’s what I’m focused on."

"I’m not focused on what other guys are making or what they are doing. I’m more focused on what I’m doing on the field and what I’m worth. That’s why when it comes to those type of talks, where they are trying to compare different types of players, that doesn’t matter me because I know who I am and that’s what I focus on."

Simply put, Devers doesn't want to be compared to other players at his position; he sees himself as a unique talent. He views himself as one of the elite players in the game.

Devers will turn 26 this October, which means he'll reach free agency at age 27.

Clearly, he's not thinking of precedents when assessing his value. Forget Manny Machado's 10-year, $300 million deal, signed at age 26 or Nolan Arenado's 8-year, $260 million deal, signed at age 27.

Anthony Rendon’s absurd $35 million AAV, which he hasn't even come close to earning, is not even the starting point.

My sense is that Devers is looking for closer to $40 million per season, for a term of at least 10 years.

Devers is only two years older than Soto, who just turned down $440 million. Though they play different positions, their numbers are similar. Both are two-time All-Stars and World Series champions. Soto has a higher OPS (.980 vs .904) over the last four seasons, but Devers has 59 more extra-base hits in just 16 more games played.

The Red Sox would have received more favorable terms had they offered Devers a reasonable extension two years ago, buying out some of his arbitration years, but that ship has sailed.

It's getting harder and harder to imagine Devers being in a Red Sox uniform beyond next season, perhaps even beyond this season. I think the Red Sox will trade Devers this offseason; and if they believe their playoff aspirations are unrealistic this year, they could maximize his value by trading him by the Aug. 2 deadline. Don’t be surprised.

When asked this week about about reaching contract extensions with Devers and Xander Bogaerts, owner John Henry sounded ominous.

"It takes two to make a deal," he said. "I think it's clear both of them want to be here. We want them here. We made efforts in the past to try to sign players that we weren't able to sign.

"It's not 100 percent our fault when we don't end up signing a player. We've signed players where it's really worked out. We've signed others that…” Henry went on to say, without saying it directly, that other players haven’t worked out, which is true.

"The key thing I think with a long-term deal is to make it with the right players. For us at this point, both Raffy and Xander are two players we would love to have. In Xander's case, it could be till the end of his career. But players have rights and you have to respect that."

That's pretty disingenuous since the club gave Bogaerts a lowball offer of four years, $90 million, which was essentially asking him to honor the three years, $60 million on his current deal, and the Sox would throw in $30 million on a fourth and final year. Considering the $300-plus million contracts for Fernando Tatis Jr., Corey Seager, and Francisco Lindor, the Sox offer was absurd. It simply didn’t meet the current market.

We don’t know what exactly the Sox offered Devers, but it doesn’t require much imagination to figure that it was equally absurd.

Clearly, Devers wants to remain in Boston, telling MassLive on Friday, "If that (staying in Boston) can happen, that would be great. We know the type of city Boston is. If it were up to me, I’d stay here my whole career. It’s a great city to play for, great fans, great ballpark. Everything that involves the organization is great, so I hope I can finish my career here because that’s what I want.”

The Red Sox drew the line at $300 million for Mookie Betts, a more complete player than Devers. And they clearly feel burned by Chris Sale’s five-year, $145 million deal, which has a team option for 2025. The Sox extended Sale despite the lefty coming off an injury-plagued 2018 season, and his injuries have continued for the majority of the last four seasons.

Devers and Sale are different players, with different bodies, at different positions, but the Red Sox seem to have a sense of “Once bitten, twice shy.” They got burned by the Pablo Sandoval and David Price contracts as well.

Since Chaim Bloom took control of baseball operations, the Red Sox' biggest outlay has been a six-year, $140 million deal for second baseman Trevor Story. Devers is clearly looking for a contract about twice as long and more than twice as expensive. The Red Sox don’t seem willing to go there. So, it looks like we’re nearing the end of Devers' stay in Boston.

The Yankees must be salivating. Josh Donaldson’s contract comes off the books after next season, right when Devers reaches free agency.

Get ready, Red Sox fans.

Where Have MLB's Innings-Eaters Gone?

 

Steve Carlton threw 304 innings in 1980. He is the last big league pitcher to reach that mark.

There are 162 games in each MLB team's regular season and nine innings per game — assuming there are no extra innings, which is beyond unlikely. But let’s play along with this assumption anyway.

This means each club will play at least 1,458 innings per season. That’s a significant burden on pitching staffs. Well, at least it is for modern pitching staffs.  

In the late 19th Century, starting pitchers would toss as many as 600 innings in a single season. Though it sounds fantastical, it was done 13 times. And big league starters threw at least 500 innings on 72 different occasions. Moreover, through the early 20th Century, starters tossed at least 400 innings 239 different times. These guys weren’t cyborgs; they were flesh and blood humans. But they still managed one hell of a heavy load. 

This isn't ancient history either. Throwing 300 per season was fairly routine throughout the 1970s.

The Tigers’ Mickey Lolich threw 376 innings in 1971. The lefty also threw at least 300 innings for four consecutive seasons from 1971-1974. Lolich made at least 40 starts in four consecutive seasons, and he made at least 35 starts in seven of his 16 seasons. His career ended in 1979.

In 1972, Wilbur Wood threw 376.2 innings for the White Sox. He followed that up with 359.1 innings the next season. In fact, Wood, who began his career with the Red Sox, pitched at least 300 innings for four consecutive seasons, and he made at least 40 starts for five consecutive seasons in the 1970s.

Gaylord Perry threw 344 innings in 1973, and tossed at least 300 innings six times in a seven-year span. Perry made at least 40 starts in three seasons, and at least 35 starts in eleven seasons. His 22-year career didn’t end until 1983.

Nolan Ryan, whose legendary fastball topped 100 mph, threw 326 innings in 1973, followed by 332.2 innings in 1974. Ryan also threw 299 innings in 1977. Throwing hard didn’t prevent him from going deep into games and making all of his starts. In fact, Ryan made at least 35 starts in eight seasons, and he made at least 30 starts 16 times in a 27-year career that ended in 1993.

Phil Niekro threw 342 innings in 1979. Niekro exceeded 300 innings four times in a career that didn't end until 1987. Niekro made at least 40 starts in three seasons, and at least 35 starts in 11 of his 24 seasons. 

Steve Carlton threw 346.1 innings for the Phillies in 1972. Eight years later, in 1980, the lefty once again broke the 300-innings threshold (304) and remains the last big leaguer to do so. Carlton twice made at least 40 starts, and he made at least 35 starts eleven times in a 24-year career didn't end until 1988. 

Until the 1980 season, the major league innings leader would routinely toss at least 300 innings per season. Year after year, what now seems impossible was regularly achieved. 

It's worth noting that up until the late 1960s/early '70s, most MLB teams still used four-man rotations, requiring pitchers to make more starts and throw more innings each year. 

These guys threw hard, they threw often, and still they had exceptionally long careers. However, all of that changed in the intervening decades. 

In the1990s, the innings leader in each league threw at least 250 innings 15 times times over that 10-year span. 

By the 2000s, the innings leader in each leaguer threw at least 250 innings just five times. You could already see the downward trend in innings pitched.

Quite tellingly, since 2010, a big league pitcher has reached the 250-innings threshold just twice, and it last occurred in 2010 (Roy Halladay) and 2011 (Justin Verlander). It hasn’t been done since. 

To reach 300 innings, pitchers had to be able to regularly record complete games. That’s become an unrealistic expectation. The 1980s were the first time in MLB history that the number of saves outnumbered complete games. By 1995, there were nearly four saves for every complete game.

 
For the past three decades, starting pitchers have only been expected to give their clubs about 30 starts and roughly 200 innings per season, which has become the new milestone. This assumes that they remain healthy, which has become all the more unusual in recent years. 

It’s worth noting that a "quality start” is defined as lasting at least six innings, while allowing three or fewer runs. To be clear, three runs in six innings would result in a 4.50 ERA. That doesn’t really seem like “quality,” but it’s the state of the game today.  

A starter who pitches a full season in a five-man rotation will generally tally, at most, 34 games started. However, last season (2021) not a single pitcher made 34 starts. In 2019, just seven pitchers did so. 

If a starting pitcher were to make 32 starts, tossing seven innings each time, he would amass 224 innings in a season. While that used to be a standard expectation, these days it seems like fantasy. Last season, just four pitchers threw at least 200 innings. In 2019, only 15 pitchers reached that threshold. These days, starting pitchers are expected to give their teams just six innings per start, at best, which amounts to 192 innings over 32 starts.

Let's make a fantastical projection that all five starters each give their club 192 innings. That would amount to just 960 innings over the course of the season. 

But, as noted above, there are at least 1,458 innings in each season — assuming there are no extra innings games, which is an absurd projection. 

That 498-inning differential needs to be absorbed by the bullpen, and it's a pretty heavy load for a relief core. 

By rule, teams are allowed just 13 pitchers on the 26-man roster (staffs used to be comprised by just nine or 10 pitchers). This means bullpens can now carry eight relievers at any given time. Of course, the makeup of the bullpen is subject to change over the duration of the season, but let’s play along simply as a thought experiment. 

If those eight relievers have to absorb those 498 innings, that amounts to 62.25 innings apiece. Last season, 91 pitchers in the majors made at least 60 appearances. While that may seem like a lot, remember that there are 30 teams, each possessing an eight-man bullpen. That means there are a minimum of 240 relievers across the majors.  

So, just 38% of relievers made at least 60 appearances last season. In other words, each member of an eight-man bullpen cannot realistically be expected to toss 62.25 innings per season.  

The solution isn’t to expand bullpens or to shuttle more players back and forth from the minors. The solution is to get starters throwing at least 200 innings per season again. Organizations need to stop focusing on strict 100-pitch limits, which could be achieved by ending the obsession with upper-90s fastballs. The focus on extreme heat has lead to a rash of elbow injuries and resulting Tommy John surgeries, which require about 15 months of recovery time. 

The focus should be on locating pitches, throwing strikes, being crafty and getting batters to chase pitches outside the strike zone. Ultimately, pitchers need to trust the defenses behind them.

Being out of gas in the fifth or sixth inning is not acceptable. This must end. Excessive pitching substitutions aren’t just lengthening the game, they're ruining the game. 

Pitchers from the 1870s to the 1980s weren’t super human. They threw hard and they never heard of a pitch count. Except for an unusual injury, leaving a game before the eighth inning was complete was practically unheard of, and it was an embarrassment. These guys took pride in taking the ball every fourth or fifth day, routinely making 30-35 starts every year, and throwing 200-300 innings every season. 

It’s time for that sort of pride, and ability, to return. The game would be better for it. 

Red Sox Sign Trevor Story, Their Most Important Acquisition This Offseason

 

The Red Sox are in agreement with Trevor Story on a six-year, $140 million deal that has a unique opt-out clause. Story can opt out of the deal after four years, but Boston can negate the opt-out by picking up a $20 million seventh-year option, making it a seven-year, $160 million deal. Story will not receive a no-trade clause in the deal.

Whether Story opts out after four seasons or stays for all seven, the average annual value (AAV) of this pact is a very reasonable $22.86 million, which is a great deal for Boston. Avoiding a no-trade clause also benefits Boston.

Since the Rockies made a qualifying offer that Story rejected, the Red Sox will forfeit their second-highest pick and and will have their international signing bonus pool reduced by $500K.

Story will play second base, with Xander Bogaerts continuing to man shortstop, giving the Red Sox one of the best middle infields in baseball. It's worth noting that Alex Cora played 530 career games at second, which will provide Story plenty of useful coaching and insight as he seeks to make this transition during a shortened spring training.

Story’s addition gives the Red Sox lineup, which lost Hunter Renfroe's 31 homers and 96 RBI, some much needed punch. He represents a massive upgrade over Christian Arroyo at second, and he offers Boston an option when Bogaerts undoubtedly opts out of his contract at season's end.

Story has belted at least 24 homers in every season since his 2016 debut (high of 37 in 2018), with the exception of the shortened 2020 season, when he hit 11. Yet, that still put him on pace to hit about 28 homers over the course of a normal season. Story has posted an OPS of at least .900 in three of his six seasons, and slugged at least .500 in four of them.

The 2021 season, when he slashed .251/.329/.471, was considered a down year by Story's lofty standards. Yet, he still produced a 4.2 WAR, which is considered All Star caliber. The glove still matters and Story is a gifted all-around player.

Like most of the great hitters who’ve thrived at Coors Field, Story will face questions about how he’ll fare away from Denver.

Story hit .303 at home, but just .241 outside of Colorado. He also posted a .972 OPS in the Mile High City, but just a .752 OPS on the road.

However, plenty of hitters have left the advantageous environment of Coors Field and continued to succeed — Matt Holliday, DJ LeMahieu, Nolan Arenado, Corey Dickerson, Seth Smith, Dexter Fowler, and Chris Iannetta among them.

Additionally, Story is also a stolen base threat, having swiped at least 20 bases in three of the last four seasons. The only year he missed 20 swipes was 2020, when he still led the NL with 15 stolen bases. That’s amazing an amazing total for just 60 games.

For comparison, the Red Sox, as a team, had 31 stolen bases in 2020 and just 40 in 2021. Story will open up a whole new dimension for them.

The main concern might be Story's elbow, which was problematic last year due to inflammation. Some MLB insiders think that, going forward, he may be best suited for the less demanding second base. Yet, the Sox had to be okay with his medicals. Now they have a chance to see how the second base experiment works out this season.

It will be really interesting to see what the Sox do with Bogaerts now. Will they top Story’s contract to keep him in Boston or let him walk? Like Story, Bogaerts is also 29 and will surely be looking for a deal that would pay him at least $30 million annually and run for at least six years. It should be noted that Bogaerts is represented by Scott Boras.

We'd all like to see Bogaerts finish his career in Boston, but with Jeter Downs and Marcello Mayer in the pipeline, the Sox may not want to commit longterm to a player who is already showing a defensive decline.

Defensive metrics weren’t kind to Bogaerts last season, as he ranked 16th among shortstops in the Majors by defensive runs saved at minus-5, per FanGraphs. However, he made only nine errors in 523 chances, logging 1,169 innings. Consequently, Bogaerts had a fielding percentage of .983, his second best in nine years on the job.

On the other hand, fielding percentage is an antiquated way of evaluating defense and the advanced metrics have always been harsh in rating Bogaerts. Players generally aren’t charged with an error if they don’t get to the ball to begin with. The more modern metrics penalize Bogaerts for being a step slow to the ball or being out of position.

Since entering the league in 2013, Bogaerts has produced -50 defensive runs saved, by far the worst among qualified shortstops in that time frame.

Bogaerts, Boston's primary shortstop for nearly a decade, was asked this week how he'd feel about Story joining the Red Sox. He sounded quite positive.

“He’s a big bat," Bogaerts aid. "We know what he does defensively already. I think that bat would play really well at Fenway just with that short porch over there. He has a nice swing that’s kind of built for that. It would be nice if we could get an addition like that after some of the big names that we lost to free agency or traded away.”

"That’s a big boy," Bogaerts said of the 6-2, 213lb Story. "That’s a big bat right there. That’s an impact player.”

Those don’t sound like the words of a player who feels threatened or jealous. Bogaerts will probably be even more supportive now that he's assured of remaining at shortstop this season.

The addition of Story will likely light a fire under Bogaerts, who will be auditioning for a long-term pact and knows that the baseball world is watching. How will he fare defensively this season? Second baseman are less valuable than shortstops, and Bogaerts knows this.

Boston has a lot of payroll flexibility coming its way starting next season, when JD Martinez, Nathan Eovaldi, Jackie Bradley Jr., Christian Vazquez, Enrique Hernandez, Michael Wacha, Rich Hill, Matt Strahm and Kevin Plawecki all come off the books. A potential Bogaerts opt-out could result in their payroll plummeting to just $60 million, leaving a huge amount of money to fill out the team’s active roster next year.

Translation: There’s still plenty of money for Bogaerts. There's plenty of money for a number of great players in Boston next year and beyond.