Evaluating Blake Snell's Free Agent Value

 

The Red Sox' priority this offseason is pitching, pitching, and more pitching. The Sox have a series No. 3 and No. 4 pitchers in their rotation, with perhaps one No. 2 (Tanner Houck) but no clear No. 1. To be a playoff contender, a team needs a true ace. Every team has its version of a No. 1, but not every team has an ace — a Cy Young Award winner or contender.

Blake Snell is one such ace under consideration by Boston. One key advantage in Snell’s free-agent status is that he no longer has a qualifying offer attached to his services. Snell rejected the Giants’ qualifying offer last winter, and since the QO can only be issued to a player once in his career, any team is free to sign Snell without having to surrender any compensation. That would be very appealing to the Red Sox, as well as other clubs.

Let’s weigh Snell’s value as a free agent. 

First, let’s start with age. Snell will turn 32 on Dec. 4. That’s an immediate concern. The average retirement age for Major League Baseball pitchers is 31.74 years, with a mean career length of 10.97 years.

Pitchers experience their prime between ages 27 and 29, with varying metrics reaching optimal levels during this period, according to Fangraphs. Pitchers generally see their velocity peak in their early 20s and steadily decline by a full mile per hour by age 26. After that, velocity drops more sharply and continues a steep decline into a pitcher’s 30s.

This is a primary problem with free agent pitchers, who generally reach free agency in their early 30s.

Snell relies heavily on his fastball. He has a 30.2% career strikeout rate, which is elite. Here’s some context for strikeout rates: 

Average - 20%

Above average - 22%

Great - 24%

Excellent - 27%

So, Snell is literally off the chart. But when his fastball inevitably declines with age and hitters no longer fear that offering, they can more easily lay off his secondary stuff. This will not only lead to fewer strikeouts, but also typically results in more walks. Snell's career walk rate is already 13.3%, which is quite high. The average walk rate for a starting pitcher in 2024 was about 10%. Simply put, Snell has elite stuff but below-average command.

Now let’s consider durability and reliability. Can Snell stay healthy over the full course of the season, and can he be relied upon to make at least 30 starts?

Over the course of his nine-year career, Snell has missed time due to adductor, groin, shoulder, and elbow injuries, the last of which required arthroscopic surgery in 2019. He even managed to break a toe while moving furniture.

The result is that Snell has pitched at least 130 innings just twice in his career, reaching 180 frames in both 2018 and 2023. He also happened to win the Cy Young Award both seasons. The takeaway is that Snell is neither durable or reliable. That's worrisome because players generally don’t get healthier or more reliable in their 30’s.  

In each of the two seasons in which he won the Cy Young Award, Snell was extraordinary, posting ERAs of 1.89 and 2.25, respectively. However, those two seasons were offset by two other seasons in which he posted ERAs above 4.00: 4.04 in 2017 and 4.20 in 2021. Additionally, Snell posted a league-leading WAR of 7.1 in 2017 and 6.2 in 2023, both of which were MVP-level. However, Snell has never posted a WAR above 2.2 in any other season. For context, a WAR of 2 is considered merely average.

With Snell, every season seems to be a roll of the dice in terms of both performance and health.  

Red Sox principle owner John Henry has built his career, and his billions, as an analytics guy. He knows the history; it’s generally a horrible idea to invest long-term dollars in pitchers in their 30s. David Price and Chris Sale, both of whom joined the Red Sox at age 30, are recent examples that bear out Henry's concern.

Snell’s agent, Scott Boras, famously misplayed the market last winter, resulting in Snell finally joining the Giants in late March. With all their leverage for a long-term deal having evaporated, Snell accepted a two-year, $62 million with the Giants that included an opt-out, which he has exercised. Boras may again seek a six-year deal for his 32-year-old client. Why not? Aim high. But it’s not realistic.  

MLB Trade Rumors predicted that Snell would land a five-year, $160 million contract. Even five years is risky for a 32-year-old pitcher, especially one with Snell's injury history.

Snell might be amenable to a four-year deal worth about $35 million per season, for a total investment of $140 million. Would the Red Sox also be agreeable to such a pact? Well, four years is certainly reasonable for an ace, and the Red Sox desperately need one. Would Snell make the Red Sox contenders? He’d certainly make them a better team, but it all relies on his durability and reliability, both of which have long been problematic. Don’t expect an innings eater, even when he's healthy.

The lack of a QO for Snell could be a deciding factor for the Red Sox, who have spent years rebuilding their farm system. Draft picks are prized across baseball, not just in Boston. After all, young players are generally healthier and they’re certainly cheaper, which brings cost certainty.

The Red Sox are also said to be interested in lefty Max Fried, who will be 31 in January, as well as righty Corbin Burnes, a former Cy Young winner who just turned 30 last month. Both are younger and more consistent than Snell. But both pitchers received and rejected qualifying offers from their former teams, which may lessen their appeal to some extent. Burnes will likely be more expensive and require a longer-term contract. MLB Trade Rumors projects a seven-year, $200 million deal for him. For what it's worth, the site predicts Fried will garner a six-year, $156 million pact.

These are the matters the Red Sox, and other clubs, are evaluating right now. From this perspective, Snell offers too much risk relative to his potential reward.

How Will Red Sox Construct Roster for 2025 Season?

 The Red Sox' abundance of young talent gives reason for optimism in 2025

What are the Red Sox intentions this offseason? How committed are they to improving an 81-81 team that missed the playoffs for the third consecutive season?

Speaking about the upcoming offseason on Rob Bradford’s podcast, Craig Breslow said the Red Sox are, “Preparing to be more decisive, more aggressive to field a team that is capable of winning the division [and] making a deep playoff run.” Breslow added, "The messaging I am getting throughout the organization, that it is time to deliver to our fans the teams they have come to expect, the competitive level they have come to expect with the Boston Red Sox."

Lacking confidence that their roster would be competitive in 2024, the Red Sox dithered in the offseason as virtually all of their projected, and even stated, free-agent targets were signed by other clubs. Will they show greater urgency this offseason?

After three seasons without a playoff appearance, the situation should be viewed as urgent on Jersey Street. The question is, where to begin?

Taking a look at the Red Sox infield, almost every position is locked up with talent: Triston Casas at first, Trevor Story at shortstop, and Rafael Devers at third. The questions are at catcher and, most especially, second base.

Connor Wong emerged as one of the better offensive catchers in the game during the 2024 season, slashing .288/.333/.425. However, he allowed 60 stolen bases this season and caught just 16 runners. The question is, who will be his battery mate? Deadline acquisition Danny Jansen (30 in April) is a free agent and he did nothing to merit a new contract during his short stay, slashing .188/.323/.300 over 30 games. Kyle Teel was drafted out of college in 2023 and has risen quickly through the Sox system. Playing at Double-A and Triple-A this season, the 22-year-old slashed a combined .288/.386/.433. It’s unclear whether the Sox believe that he can break camp with the big league camp next spring, but he will be given every chance to prove it. The Sox may be in the market for a defensively-gifted veteran this offseason to compete with Teel, and to provide insurance in case he needs more time at Triple-A.

Then there’s second base, where the Red Sox fielded a carousel of players this season. Vaughn Grissom was handed the position before spring training, but injured both hamstrings and spent most of the year on the injured list. Appearing in 31 games, the 23-year-old slashed a paltry .190/.246/.219, creating no assurances or confidence that he can provide stability at the keystone. He’s still quite young and batted over .300 during his time in the minors, so there’s still time for him to prove himself. Beyond Grissom, Enmanual Valdez, Jamie Westbrook, and Mickey Gaspar are not answers to the problem. David Hamilton had a nice season until he suffered a fractured finger in late August. The speedster stole 33 bases in just 98 games, and slashed .248/.303/.395. He’s serviceable but bats left looks more like a bench asset than a starting infielder.

In short, the Sox will surely be on the lookout for a right-handed hitting second baseman this winter. This wouldn’t be an issue had Grissom engaged in a proper offseason stretching program to protect his hamstrings (all players should; the number of hamstring injuries across the game is absurd). He’ll be given another chance in spring training, but surely the message will be that he needs to fight for, and earn, a job. Nothing will be given or granted. 

The Red Sox outfield hasn’t looked this good, and young, since Mookie Betts, Jackie Bradley and Andrew Benintendi helped the Red Sox win a World Series in 2018. In the trio of Ceddanne Rafaela (24), Wilyer Abreu (25), and Jarren Duran (28), the Sox have an abundance of talent and youth. All of them are controlled for years to come and are very inexpensive. Rob Refsnyder crushes lefties and is a fantastic platoon player. He’s controlled via a $2 million option for 2025 that looks like a no-brainer. 

The problem is that Refsnyder is the only righty in the outfield bunch. Righty Tyler O’Neil is a free agent and Masa Yoshida has such significant defensive liabilities that he was strictly limited to DH duties this year. With an $18 million-per-year price tag for three more seasons, Yoshida clearly doesn’t fit Boston’s current or future roster. They will surely look to deal him this winter, and will likely have to eat significant salary to do so. So be it. It would be a matter of addition by subtraction. Moving Yoshida would open up the possibility of resigning O’Neil, who led the team with 31 homers the season.

No. 1 prospect Roman Anthony is on the way. The only question is whether he breaks camp with the big league club out of spring training. However, Anthony also bats left, which would still leave the lineup too left-handed. This is yet another reason that Yoshida needs to go. 

The primary concerns with the Sox’ roster are with the pitching staff. Even with Lucas Giolito expected to be healthy for the start of spring training, the Sox will return a core of Tanner Houck, Kutter Crawford, Brayan Bello and, possibly, Richard Fitts. Nick Pivetta is a free agent and will likely find his future elsewhere. The Sox need a star, an ace to solidify the staff and excite a moribund fanbase. They need a stopper who can break losing streaks and who can be expected to excel over the course of 30-plus starts. That pitcher will have to be obtained via free agency or trade. Free agency, though dicey, only costs money. Trades cost players and can create roster holes. By the way, if you’re hoping so, Yoshida will not fetch the starter the Sox need. 

Additionally, the bullpen will have holes to fill with the expected departures of free agents Kenley Jansen, 37, and Chris Marten, 38. Josh Winkowski, Justin Slaten, Brendan Bernardino, and the returning Garrett Whitlock (remember him?) will all play important roles, but the Sox need more arms. Luis Garcia, 37, and Lucas Sims, 30, were trade deadline acquisitions that proved to be duds. Both are free agents and it’s nearly impossible to envision either of them returning. They were two of the worst moves that Breslow has made in his brief tenure as head of baseball ops in Boston. 

Look for the Sox to sign two relievers of the ’sure thing’ variety, as well as about four others to compete for roster spots during spring training. The caveat is that relievers are generally an inconsistent bunch that take steps backward and forward from season to season. They are a crapshoot, which makes roster building a challenge. But Breslow has created a hierarchy of pitching overlords for just this type of situation. It’s time for them to target specific pitchers, based on the analytics and their own projections, and then bring them to Boston. 

This roster is young and solid, and more youth is on the way. Anthony, Teel and Marcelo Mayer could all be in Boston next year. But, as this season proved, the Sox need to stay healthy and they need more veteran leadership. That latter is achievable. Now it’s time for some good decision-making by the front office. Get ‘er done, boys.   

Where Will Red Sox Find Innings This Season?

 Newcomer Lucas Giolito will attempt to anchor the Red Sox rotation this season.

There are 1458 innings in a 162-game season, not including extras. The Red Sox starters will be tasked with pitching the bulk of them. Yet, that seems like a highly dubious proposition from the outset.

Boston’s starting five will consists of Lucas Giolito, who has 178 career starts, and Brayan Bello, who has made just 39. Every other pitcher upon whom the Red Sox will rest their hopes would be in the bullpen of any competitive team. But the Sox ignored the rotation this offseason and will roll the dice with a host of inexperienced, unproven starters. The question remains: How will the Sox account for all those innings this season?

Giolito has averaged 5.2 innings per start over his eight-year career. He’ll turn 30 this season and isn’t likely to suddenly become an Iron Man. 

Bello has averaged 5.1 innings in his 39 career starts. He’ll turn 25 in May, so his innings per start could improve this season and will need to.  

Nick Pivetta has made 152 career starts, averaging 5.1 innings. Going into his age-31 season, he will need to boost that to at least 6 innings per start. Possible? Yes. Likely? No.

Kutter Crawford has made just 36 career starts, averaging about 4.2 innings per start. He turns 28 on April 1 and will need to significantly increase his innings total this season. Again, not very likely.

The Red Sox told Garrett Whitlock (age 27), Tanner Houck (age 27) and Josh Winckowski (age 25) all to prepare as starting pitchers for spring training. Yet, all of them have performed much better as relievers.

Houck has a 4.17 ERA in 41 career starts (198 ⅓ innings) and a 2.68 ERA in 33 career relief outings (53 ⅔ innings). He’s averaged just 4.2 innings per start.

Whitlock owns a 4.76 ERA in 19 career starts (90 ⅔ innings), while posting a 2.65 ERA in 80 career relief outings (132 ⅔ innings). That's also just 4.2 innings per start.

Winckowski has also enjoyed great success as a reliever, posting a 2.88 ERA in 84 ⅓ innings. In a mere 15 career starts, Winckowski has also averaged 4.2 innings per start.

In totality, every single potential member of the Red Sox rotation has averaged about 5 or fewer innings per start in his career. There isn't one horse in the bunch. Imagine a perfect world in which every one of them were to make 30 starts, pitching five innings per start, for a total of 150 innings. In such a scenario, the five starters would account for 750 innings this season, leaving the bullpen to pitch the at least 708 innings. That scenario, of course, is a pipe dream. It is unimaginable that each of them will make 30 starts this season, much less pitch five innings in each of them. Expect the bullpen to go from stressed to distressed.

Here's the Red Sox projected rotation (five of the seven will get a spot):

STARTER - CAREER STARTS, ERA, WHIP

Lucas Giolito - 178, 4.43, 1.25

Brayan Bello - 39, 4.37, 1.46

Nick Pivetta - 152, 4.86, 1.35

Kutter Crawford - 36, 4.74, 1.25

Tanner Houck - 41, 4.17, 1.25

Garrett Whitlock - 19, 4.76, 1.29

Josh Winckowski - 15, 5.66, 1.55

This is a rotation mostly consisting of No. 4 and No. 5 starters, all of whom have career ERA's of roughly 4.50. Clearly, there is no ace to lead the staff.

Ownership/management seems content to roll the dice and let a looming pitching disaster play out before our eyes. To be clear, having one young, inexperienced, unproven starter in the rotation is to be expected; every pitcher begins his career inexperienced and unproven. But to roll out a rotation in which at least three starting pitchers are inexperienced and unproven is sheer lunacy. And with all due respect, though Pivetta is indeed experienced with 152 career starts, he’s proven that he's best suited for a long relief role and is, perhaps, a No.5 starter. Yet, on this team, he will be the No. 3.

Assembling this Red Sox rotation seems to be akin to spinning a roulette wheel — good luck. The effort involved can be described as some combination of complacent and negligent. Ownership/management have shown no regard for the team or the fans.  

Unfortunately, all signs point to yet another last-place finish in 2024.

Red Sox Poised for Yet Another Last Place Finish in 2024

 

Red Sox ownership's lack of interest in the team and regard for its fans is astonishing.

In the midst of self-imposed belt tightening, the Red Sox appear poised for yet another last place finish this season.

After having a $181.2M Opening Day payroll in 2023, Red Sox president Sam Kennedy said Friday night at the Winter Weekend event that the team’s payroll would probably drop again this season. The Sox currently have approximately $177.5M on the books for 2024, according to Roster Resource. Last year's figure ranked 12th in all of baseball, the first time in the 21st century that the Red Sox weren’t at least in the top ten in Opening Day spending. This year will mark the second.

So far, the club's only significant free agent signing was a two-year, $38.5M rebound deal for Lucas Giolito. Any further roster additions before spring training will likely be lower-tier free agents on short-term contracts. Yet, that could still require shedding some payroll first.

Meanwhile, the Sox still have the highest ticket prices in baseball. As long as Fenway Park remains a tourist destination for fans and travelers around the country, ownership is confident that they’ll continue to make plenty of money from ticket sales, Red Sox fans be damned.

This newfound frugality is unexpected and perhaps unexplainable. The Sox had the highest payroll in the game in 2018, the second highest in 2004 and 2007, and the third highest in 2013. The results were pretty spectacular each time.

No one should have expected Craig Breslow to come in guns blazing in his first year. He needs to assess the minor league system and see what he’s got. Which prospects does he really believe in? Who’s worth trading? This team is not two pieces from being a World Series contender, and Breslow knows it. He’s playing for 2025 and 2026. That said, he needs to do more this offseason to rebuild fan trust and give people a reason to go to Fenway and watch on TV. He needs to at least keep the Sox out of last place, make them competitive, and make them worth watching again.

Reasonable fans don’t want the Sox to do just anything; not every big ticket free agent makes sense and many will underperform their contracts. However, the Red Sox inability or unwillingness to make substantial improvements to the roster, particularly the rotation, are frustrating to the point of being maddening. 

Spring training is three weeks away. Here's the Red Sox projected 2024 rotation:

STARTER - CAREER STARTS, ERA, WHIP
Lucas Giolito - 178, 4.43, 1.25
Brayan Bello - 39, 4.37, 1.46
Nick Pivetta - 152, 4.86, 1.35
Kutter Crawford - 36, 4.74, 1.25

That leaves the rotation at least a man short. It's also a rotation mostly consisting of No. 4 and No. 5 starters, all of whom have career ERA's of roughly 4.50. Obviously, there is no ace to lead the staff. Tanner Houck and Garrett Whitlock have clearly proven that they belong in the bullpen, not the rotation. They are not solutions. The same could be fairly said about Pivetta and Crawford.

Yet, Breslow said in an interview that he’s comfortable letting Whitlock, Houck and Josh Winckowski compete for the fifth starter role. The team is already going to be relying on Pivetta and Crawford, both of whom should be in the bullpen anyway. 

The construction of the rotation is, at the least, complacent or negligent. It shows no regard for the team or the fans. All signs point to yet another last-place finish in 2024. 

The Sox have a decent core right now. They are not a World Series competitor, but why not sign Jordan Montgomery and at least make the club interesting and more competitive? How would giving him a 5-6 year deal screw up their timeline for contention? They seem to be placing all of their focus on the future and none on the present. They’re losing fans as a result. 

It’s pretty astonishing that after three last place finishes in the past four years, the Red Sox are still in the midst of a rebuild. The question of how much longer it will take is a really valid one. 

The Sox traded Mookie Betts four years ago, got nothing to show for it, and still haven’t recovered. If they had to sign one guy to a massive long-term contract, Mookie was that guy, not Rafael Devers, who they extended in a panic and under great public pressure. It’s quite apparent that the Sox grossly overpaid Devers (10 years, $313.5M), who had negative-9 defensive runs saved in 2023 and has negative-53 defensive runs saved in seven major league seasons. He'll need to move to DH sooner than later, and he's still just 27 years old! Screwing up the Mookie negotiations caused them to overplay their hand with Devers.

John Henry seems quite distracted by other interests; he didn’t even show up for Friday night's event. He wasn’t available to the media when Bloom was fired either, leaving the explaining to Sam Kennedy. Other than a few informal exchanges with reporters during the 2021 postseason and a few email exchanges with two reporters last February, Henry has not made himself available to the media in a press conference setting since February of 2020, almost four years ago. Yet, a lot has happened in the interim. The club has hired two managers, fired one chief baseball officer and hired another, lost a home-grown, cornerstone player in free agency, and given out the biggest contract in franchise history. They’ve also finished in last place three times in those four years. Yet, Henry is busy with other things. It shows. 

The team is being mismanaged and their brand is being ruined. Henry has clearly lost interest and should sell the franchise. Empty seats at Fenway and plunging NESN ratings may be the only way to get his attention.

Get ready for another long and disappointing season, Red Sox fans.

The Red Sox Brand is Slowly Being Destroyed Right Before Our Eyes

 

Just a cursory glance at the Red Sox roster moves this offseason indicates that management is playing the long game. There is no indication that leadership thinks this club is a World Series contender or even a playoff contender, for that matter. 

The Sox' biggest splurge, so far, is the 2-year, $38.5M deal for Lucas Giolito. New outfielder Tyler O’Neill is under club control for just one season. Reliever Cooper Criswell, who was signed for the bargain basement price of $1M, is under club control for six seasons, if he can somehow manage to keep a job that long. New second baseman Vaughn Grissom, who was obtained for Chris Sale, will play for the rookie minimum and is under club control for the next six seasons. He could be a keeper and will likely amount to an upgrade over the carousel of second baseman who manned the position last year. However, he will not move the needle in 2024 and push the Red Sox into a playoff position. 

So, if the Sox are content with obtaining young players with multiple years of club control, and signing free agents to short-term deals, then why not sign righty Marcus Stroman, who just accepted a two-year, $37M deal with the Yankees? That’s less than Giolito cost. Stroman is battle-tested in the AL East and over nearly six seasons in Toronto compiled a solid 3.76 ERA across 135 appearances (129 starts). After opting out of the shortened 2020 campaign, Stroman pitched to a 3.02 ERA for the Mets, across a league-leading 33 starts during the 2021 season. Stroman spent 2022 with pitched the Cubs and posted a 3.50 ERA across 138 2/3 innings of work. Last season, he posted an incredible 2.28 ERA over 98 2/3 innings across his first 16 starts, before injuries derailed his season. 

Why wouldn't that guy be of interest to the myopic Red Sox, who are clearly waiting for their top prospects to start arriving in 2025? Stroman would have perfectly fit their timeline. That’s what makes this offseason so confusing. By the way, even after Marcello Mayer and Kyle Teel arrive, when was the last time a team consisting primarily of first- and second-year players led the Red Sox, or any other club, to a World Series title? It’s a rhetorical question. 

Shota Imanaga, who the Red Sox scouted and evaluated extensively, was one of their free agent targets since the start of the offseason. Yet, the Sox were runners up to the Cubs, who gave the Japanese star a four-year, $53M guarantee. A short-term, low-cost, incentive-laden deal is right up the Sox' alley. Did Imanaga simply pick the Cubs over the Sox? If so, it’s an embarrassment to the Red Sox organization, which used to be able to sign virtually any free-agent target they set their sights on. Though some evaluators project Imanaga as a No. 3 starter, how did the Red Sox get outbid for, or looked over by, a No. 3 starter? Missing out on Stroman, Imanaga, and Yoshinobu Yamamoto (who wouldn't even give the Red Sox a courtesy visit) could have far reaching effects.

Acquiring starters Jesus Luzardo from the Marlins or Dylan Cease from the White Sox will require parting with a bounty of top prospects. Why not just spend money on free agents and keep the prospects? After all, John Henry is, you know, a billionaire, and the Red Sox have the highest ticket prices in the game. They can afford to splurge this offseason.

MLBTR predicted that Blake Snell would land a contract of $200M over seven years, and that Jordan Montgomery will get a six year, $150M deal. I’d take Montgomery over Snell in a heartbeat, and he’d at least make the Red Sox more interesting and give them a chance to win every fifth day.

Over seven seasons (three of which he barely pitched, due to injuries), the 31-year old Montgomery has gone 38-34, allowing 706 hits and fanning 705 batters over 755 innings, resulting in a 3.68 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP. Hey, Craig Breslow, go get that guy now! 

The Red Sox brand is slowly being destroyed right before our eyes. The organization needs to make the team interesting this season and give fans a reason to tune in and show up at the ballpark. Excluding the shortened 2020 season, attendance in 2022 and 2023 fell below 2.7 million for the first time since 2002, the first year of Henry’s ownership. After three last-place finishes in the past four years, the fans aren't interested in a 2025-2026 timeline. Baseball has been losing younger fans for years. At this rate, the Red Sox stand to lose an entire generation, which they may never get back. They’d better take this seriously and act quickly. Time is wasting.

The free agent starter pickings are increasingly slim, led by names like Hyun Jin Ryu, Michael Lorenzen and Mike Clevinger. None of them will inspire hope or interest. The Red Sox had better get Montgomery now and save whatever’s left of their flagging reputation.