JD Martinez is said to be “fed up" with the Red Sox and their skimpy, little $125 million, five-year offer. At this point, it’s likely that the Sox are equally fed up with Martinez. The club has reportedly been looking into alternatives all winter long.
Could Miguel Cabrera be one of them?
Dave Dombrowski used to be the General Manager of the Detroit Tigers and was at the helm when the club signed Cabrera to a massive extension in March, 2014.
Cabrera's eight-year, $248 million contract with the Tigers runs through 2023. The pact has an annual average salary of $31 million. There are still six years and $184 million remaining on that deal, plus options in 2024 and 2025. Those options vest with a top-10 finish in the MVP voting the year prior, but include an $8 million buyout.
The terms of the contract stipulate that Cabrera enjoys full no-trade protection. However, being part of a non-competitive team that will be engaging in a long-term rebuild may not be all that palatable to the two-time MVP. Over the past seven months, Cabrera has watched the Tigers trade away J.D. Martinez, Justin Verlander, Justin Upton and Ian Kinsler.
With the bulk of the team’s veteran leadership having left town, Cabrera might not need all that much coaxing to accept a trade to a highly competitive team. The Red Sox might fit the bill.
But would Boston be interested in trading for the 11-time All Star if Detroit made him available?
At age 34, Cabrera has likely peaked and begun his inevitable decline. Last season was undoubtedly the worst of his 15-year career. Playing in only 130 games, Cabrera slashed just .249/.329/.399, numbers that were way off his stellar career averages. After all, he won the Triple Crown in 2012, becoming the first player to achieve the illustrious feat since Carl Yastrzemski in 1967.
Furthermore, the first baseman has topped 30 home runs just once in the last four seasons. That said, Cabrera won a batting title as recently as 2015, when he hit .338, and he batted .316 just two seasons ago. In fact, excluding his disastrous 2017 campaign, when he posted a -0.8 WAR, Cabrera batted at least .300 for eight consecutive seasons and 11 of the previous 12. In that span, Cabrera won four batting titles.
Cabrera will turn 35 in April, yet it is unlikely that he's suddenly washed up. The careers of great players don’t usually go off a cliff; they suffer a more gradual, prolonged decline.
Still, having a 35-year-old under contract for at least six more seasons is a very bad business decision. Having that player under contract for six more years at the cost of $184 is a nightmare.
Listed at six feet, four inches and 240 pounds, Cabrera has a body that already isn't aging well. Have you seen him run? He looks like he’s 60.
There is not a GM in baseball that would sign Cabrera this winter to a six-year, $184 million deal. That would blow away what JD Martinez will eventually get and Martinez is more than four years younger. In short, former Tigers’ owner Mike Ilitch made an emotional, and regretable, decision when he extended Cabrera four years ago. Ilitich is now deceased and doesn’t have to live with the aftermath of that ill-advised choice.
Few players should be under contract at age 38; Cabrera will be under contract through at least age 40, even if his two option years do not vest.
That’s the Tigers’ problem right now, despite the fact that Cabrera is a fan favorite and has been a franchise cornerstone. The question is whether they can make his albatross contract someone else’s problem.
Quite clearly, Detroit would have to kick in a substantial amount of money to move Cabrera off their payroll. How much? A lot. Last season, Cabrera literally had negative value. The Tigers could have found a replacement player at league-minimum salary. That’s a bitter pill.
As I’ve said repeatedly, the problem with long-term contracts is that they are backward looking, rewarding players for they did in the past. While Cabrera may have been worth $30 million per season from ages 26-31, he is certainly not worth that much today and he surely won’t be at any time over the next six seasons.
Cabrera may, perhaps, be worth half that much. At this point, he can only play first base and his range there already more limited than it used to be. His slipping defense will eventually relegate him to a DH spot, and that time is likely sooner than later. Yet, Cabrera is already so slow that he can clog up the base paths and that will only worsen in the coming years.
So, would the Tigers kick in half of Cabrera’s salary to get the Red Sox to take him off their hands? To be sure, there are few teams that would be able, much less willing, to take Cabrera even at that price. Would the Red Sox be willing? They surely have the resources, but would such a move make sense?
Boston seems unwilling to offer Cabrera’s former teammate, JD Martinez, a six-year deal and he’s just 30. Based on that alone, it seems unlikely that Dombrowski has reached out, or would reach out, to his former team to swing a deal for Cabrera.
The reality is that the Tigers never should have offered Cabrera the deal he gladly accepted and now they are living with the regrettable aftermath. It’s a cautionary tale for all teams considering long term contracts that would take players into their late 30s, much less age 40 — even if they are superstars and the face of their franchise.
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