Much has been made about the glacial pace of free agent signings this offseason. Some observers have even wondered aloud if team owners are engaged in collusion, actively deciding not to sign players in an effort to drive down their price tags. It makes for a good conspiracy theory, but the facts tell a different story.
In fact, eight of MLB Trade Rumors top-10 free agents this winter have either signed or been offered generous contracts. The same can be said for 12 of the top-14 and 16 of the top-20 free agents.
Clearly, large offers have been made and many of the top free agents have, in fact, signed contracts.
The most interesting aspect of this slow free agency period is the number of top free agents who have declined lucrative offers. For example:
The Red Sox have reportedly offered JD Martinez a five-year deal in the neighborhood of $125M. To this point, no other offers have been reported. The number of teams that both need and can afford a $125M hitter this offseason is quite limited.
Despite this, Martinez thinks Boston’s offer is not good enough and refuses to accept it. He is said to be “fed up” with the very team that has offered him the highest annual value of any player this offseason. Go figure.
Eric Hosmer reportedly has a seven-year, $147M offer from the Royals and a seven-year, $140M offer from the Padres on the table. Apparently, neither offer is good enough for Hosmer, who has so far refused to sign.
Yu Darvish has been given a formal offer by the Twins, reportedly 4-5 years in length. According to various reports, Darvish has received multiple offers worth $100M-plus, including several five-year offers. Still, Darvish refuses to sign because none of them are good enough for him.
The 31-year-old is believed to be seeking a deal in the range of $150M-$175M. That would necessitate a contract of at least six years, which is unjustifiable.
Reliever Greg Holland reportedly rejected the Rockies' offer of three years and $52 million. He also rejected the Rockies' $17.4M qualifying offer at the start of the offseason.
Righty Alex Cobb reportedly rejected a three-year, $42 million contract from the Chicago Cubs. He also rejected the Rays' $17.4M qualifying offer at the start of the offseason.
The Cubs are reportedly willing to bring back Jake Arrieta on a four-year, $110 million deal and the Brewers are believed to have made a similar offer in length. Arrieta also rejected the Cubs’ $17.4M qualifying offer at the start of the offseason.
The other remaining top free agents, Lance Lynn and Mike Moustakas, also rejected $17.4M qualifying offers.
Are we supposed to feel bad for these guys?
What do Martinez, Hosmer, Moustakas and Arrieta all have in common? Scott Boras is their agent. This log jam, then, is little surprise. Boras likes to drag negotiations late into the offseason, extracting every last million.
Boras has a history of getting his clients long-term contracts, spanning seven or eight years, which those players almost never live up to. The thinking seems to be: Pay these players for their past accomplishments and don’t be concerned if they can’t perform well enough to justify their rich, long term deals.
However, team owners and GMs have finally come to their senses and realized that long term pacts are horrible business decisions that clog up rosters and leave them searching for replacements when the players cannot fulfill their long-term deals.
If players truly believe they are worth seven and eight-year contracts, they should sign four-year deals this winter and then seek new three or four-year deals when their contracts expire. Inflation will have only driven up the annual value of their future contracts. Why won’t the players do this? It’s because even they don’t believe in themselves over that length of time. They know they are likely to become injured or otherwise decline. So, if the players don’t even believe in themselves, why should the owners and GMs?
The problem with this free agent market is that the top players have lost touch with reality and become deluded by greed. It’s not that there aren’t good offers out there for the top talent available; it’s that those players think the existing offers just aren’t good enough.
This market is slow because the top free agents refuse to accept generous offers. They keep waiting for some mystery team to come out of nowhere and blow them away with an even bigger, longer offer. It’s a combination of greed and overvaluing themselves. A free market will always tell you what you or your product is really worth.
If these players would just get over their delusions of grandeur and accept reality (as well as some very generous offers), this market would quickly thaw and get moving for the mid-level players.
Spring training opens next week.
2 comments:
Exactly! Top AAVs ought to come down and seriously no deal should be longer than 4-5 years unless it's to a player in their 20's.
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