Stop Expecting Rick Porcello to Repeat His 2016 Season

Coming into last season, the Red Sox were widely viewed as having perhaps the best rotation in baseball. They had just obtained Chris Sale in a big, offseason trade with the White Sox; former Cy Young Award winner David Price was approaching his second year with the club (meaning his assimilation and adjustment period to Boston was supposedly over); and Rick Porcello was the reigning AL Cy Young winner.

Sale was almost other worldly for most of the 2017 season. Price, injured for much of the year, was shifted to the bullpen to lessen the burden on his left elbow. Porcello, however, remained healthy, but still took a huge step backward.

In 2016, the righty had posted a league-best 22-4 record, with a 3.15 ERA and a miniscule 1.00 WHIP. Over 223 innings, Porcello gave up just 193 hits while striking out 189 batters. He also led the AL with a 5.91 strikeout-to-walk ratio. The performance earned Porcello the Cy Young Award, for which he beat Justin Verlander by just five votes.

It was an odd season for a pitcher who had posted a 4.92 ERA just the year before and who had posted an ERA well above 4.00 in five of the previous six years. In fact, over seven seasons, Porcello had a career 4.41 ERA. That made 2016 a freak year for him and, unfortunately, gravity (or reality) pulled him back to earth in 2017.

In 2016, Porcello had an OPS against of .635; in 2017 it was .826. In virtually every way, Porcello’s 2016 season was a statistical outlier; the rest of his career has been marked by mediocrity.

The veteran finished the 2017 season with an 11-17 record (the most losses in the AL and the most of his career) and a 4.65 ERA. Porcello also gave up 38 homers last season, tying the club record set by Tim Wakefield in 1996.

In short, Porcello went from being the best starter in the American League to one of the worst in the span of just one year.

So, who is the real Rick Porcello? Well, he’s a lot closer to the pitcher we saw in 2017 than the one who shined in 2016. The career stats prove it.

Prior to 2016, Porcello had thrown 200 innings just once in his seven-year career. His ERA had also been below league average in five of those seven seasons. Furthermore, in an era dominated by strikeouts, Porcello still hasn't fanned 200 batters in any season.

The Red Sox were persuaded by Porcello’s age (26) and his potential when they obtained him from Detroit in exchange for Yoenis Céspedes in Dec. 2014. They thought the righty was just coming into his own and still had tremendous upside. Boston liked him so much that they gave him a four-year, $82.5 million extension in April, 2015, before he had even thrown a single pitch for the team.

Quite simply, Porcello didn’t earn his $12.5 million salary (from his Detroit contract) in 2015, a season in which he went 9-15 with a 4.92 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP. Wins have certainly fallen out of favor in modern statistical analysis, but they’re quite revealing when a pitcher has an ERA nearing 5.00.

However, in 2016 Porcello earned every dollar of $20 million salary. The Red Sox won 93 games and the AL East, which earned them a playoff spot.

However, Porcello was shelled in his lone start against Cleveland in the ALDS and took the loss. He set the tone in Game 1, when he surrendered 5 runs (which included 3 homers) on 6 hits in just 4.1 innings. Boston lost the next two games as well and were summarily bounced in the first round.

The poor performance was an omen of what was to come for Porcello in 2017.

So, what should we expect from him this season?

Well, at the least, most of us have wisely tempered our expectations. It’s likely that we will never again see the pitcher that Porcello was in 2016. That was a unicorn performance. It’s not likely that he will earn his $21 million salary this season or next.

Porcello has a career 4.25 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP. He pitches to contact and puts a lot of guys on base. When that happens, a pitcher relies heavily on his defense to keep those baserunners from scoring. That’s a gamble and it’s usually a losing proposition, as we saw last season.

The reality is that Porcello is among the worst starting pitchers to have ever won the Cy Young Award and he’s really a No. 3 pitcher, at best. We have to look past the $21 million salary and the Cy Young Award and just accept that.

Tempering our expectations is the best way to avoid any further frustration and disappointment.