Projecting the 2018 Red Sox Roster

With spring training games officially underway, it’s a good time to begin projecting the Red Sox Opening Day roster. Of course, a significant injury could change things between now and then, but otherwise Boston’s staring lineup and rotation are in place.

There are a couple of questions in the bullpen -- such as whether the team can really break camp with just one lefty -- and on the bench, but much of the roster is set. That said, some very interesting decisions remain. Let's take a look.

Starters (five spots)

Chris Sale (L)
David Price (L)
Drew Pomeranz (L)
Rick Porcello (R)
Brian Johnson? (L)

Johnson is out of options. That means he can’t be sent to the minors without first passing through waivers, where he would likely be claimed by another team.

Though the 27-year-old has just 31 1/3 innings of big league action under his belt, he was a first-round pick of the Red Sox in 2012 and is a former top-100 prospect. The team would rather not lose him.

Eduardo Rodriguez is still recovering from major offseason knee surgery and will begin the year on the DL. The lefty underwent reconstruction of the patellofemoral ligament in his right knee in October. At the time, the club said he would not be able to resume pitching for around six months, which would put him on course to begin throwing by mid-April. That means he won’t be ready to join the Red Sox until at least May.

Knuckleballer Steven Wright also had knee surgery last May, in which cartilage from a cadaver was transplanted into his left knee. He is also expected to start the season on the DL. It should not be forgotten that he was an All Star in 2016.

Bullpen (seven spots)

Craig Kimbrel (R)
Carson Smith (R)
Joe Kelly (R)
Matt Barnes (R)
Heath Hembree (R)
Brandon Workman (R)
Robby Scott (L)

This is a pretty solid, young bunch. The Boston bullpen posted a collective 3.15 ERA last season, the second-best in the majors, after Cleveland (2.89). The group's .226 batting average against was sixth-best in the majors. The question is whether or not they need another lefty.

Righty Tyler Thornburg could be a great help, but it's unrealistic to expect much from him after undergoing thoracic-outlet surgery last June. The 29-year-old faces a long road back and may never again be the same. The procedure has derailed other pitchers in the past.

Position players (13 spots)

C - Christian Vazquez/Sandy Leon
1B - Hanley Ramirez/Mitch Moreland
2B - Eduardo Nunez
SS - Xander Bogaerts
3B - Rafael Devers
LF - Andrew Benintendi
CF - Jackie Bradley Jr.
RF - Mookie Betts
DH - JD Martinez

It’s a good bet that Vazquez and Leon will split games 60/40 behind the plate, and that Moreland will play a significant amount of games at first base in a platoon with Ramirez. Marinez will serve as the fourth outfielder, which is a primary reason why the team traded Bryce Brentz to Pittsburgh (the team also needed to open a 40-man roster spot).

So, that accounts for 11 spots, leaving two bench positions up for grabs. Here’s where it gets really interesting.

Brock Holt agreed to a $2.2 million salary in arbitration. Though he still has options remaining, his salary and versatility make him a likely roster addition. However, arbitration contracts aren’t guaranteed until the player makes the 25-man roster out of spring training. That means Holt’s spring performance could decide his future with the team. This will be a time to prove that last year's concussion symptoms are a thing of the past.

Deven Marerro and Blake Swihart are both out of options. Each would have to pass through waivers to be reassigned to the minors and the latter would likely be claimed.

Swihart is finally healthy after colliding with the outfield wall in June, 2016, which required subsequent ankle surgery. The 25-year-old was able to catch back-to-back games in the Dominican winter league, where he hit .407 over 18 games. Though Swihart still sees himself as a catcher, there is a logjam at the position and he has said that he is wiling to play wherever the Red Sox need him. Given his great athleticism, Swihart likely has enough versatility to be a solid utility player, until a spot behind the plate opens once again.

Marerro is a slick fielder, who can play both shortstop and third base. However, he can’t hit a lick. The 27-year-old has slashed .208/.259/.309 through 236 at-bats over the past three seasons. At this point, he probably isn’t going to get much better offensively. This is who he is.

With all of that in mind, it seems likely that Holt and Swihart, if healthy, will get the final two roster spots.

Dustin Pedroia will return some time in May -- barring re-injury to his surgically-repaired left knee -- which will create another roster logjam that will need to be resolved at that time. That’s a good problem to have.

Fenway's Dimensions Will Pose Challenge for JD Martinez

Fenway Park’s left field wall is just 310 feet from home plate. Due to that short distance, the Green Monster was built 37.2 feet tall to keep at least some of the balls coming off right-handed hitters bats in the park.

Yet, that close proximity has always made "the wall" a popular target for right-handed hitters. In fact, Fenway has historically been viewed as a right-handed slugger's paradise.

However, the three greatest home run hitters in Red Sox history — Ted Williams (521 HR), David Ortiz (483 HR) and Carl Yastrzemski (452 HR) — were all left-handed batters. In reality, Fenway could be actually viewed as a left-handed slugger’s paradise. That’s something the Red Sox surely keep in mind when drafting players, and when constructing their roster via trades and free agent signings.

However, Fenway Park can be a challenging environment for a right-handed hitter who goes the other way.

For example, right-handed-hitting JD Martinez hits many of his homers to the opposite field, particularly to right center -- the deepest part of Fenway Park. In fact, over the last three seasons, the 6-foot-3, 220-pound Martinez hit the most opposite field home runs in baseball — 45. Khris Davis, the next closest player, hit 39.

Fenway measures 310 feet down the left field line; 379 feet in left center field; 390 feet in center field; 420 feet in deep center field; 380 feet in deep right field; and 302 feet down the right field line.

As noted, Martinez drives the ball the other way a lot — 43.2 percent of his home runs were to right field last year. In fact, Martinez hit 19 opposite-field home runs last season, the most of any hitter in the Majors.

Consider this: Only nine left-handed hitters in all of baseball hit more homers to right field than Martinez did in 2017. He had more opposite-field home runs than nearly every lefty had pulled home runs.

Martinez’s ability to hit the ball all over the park should be viewed as a strength. However, he has to be able to consistently hit balls over, and off, the Green Monster to be truly successful in Boston.

While his all-field ability is desirable, right-center is the deepest part of Fenway, which will present a challenge to Martinez’s outstanding home-run hitting ability. What worked for him in Detroit and Arizona might not work as well in Boston.

Here is MLB.com's analysis of how Martinez might fare at Fenway:

"Despite the enticing 302 feet to Pesky's Pole in the right-field corner, Fenway Park might present some trouble to a hitter with Martinez's spray profile because the fence quickly moves out to 380 feet. A few of Martinez's 2017 homers might have trouble getting out to right at Fenway. As far as the Green Monster, Martinez’s average home run launch angle was a middle-of-the-pack 29 degrees.”

Martinez has gradually morphed from a pull hitter into one who uses the entire field.

In 2014, he knocked 45 percent of his batted balls to left field and only 22 percent to right. However, last season, Martinez hit 38 percent of his balls to left, 33 percent to center and 29 percent to right field.

It will interesting to see what sort of adjustments Martinez makes to hitting at Fenway Park, where the Red Sox play at least 81 games each season. That will be a critical factor in whether or not he is ultimately successful in Boston.

Even in Good Health, Hanley Ramirez Can't Carry Red Sox Offense

Hanley Ramirez was never a true power hitter, so don't expect him to become one this season.

Hanley Ramirez eschewed heavy-weight training this offseason in favor of using bands. As a result, Ramirez has dropped 15 pounds and says he has much greater flexibility.

Now 34 years old and coming off shoulder surgery, Ramirez hopes he can return to the player he was in 2016, when he hit 30 homers and had a career-high 111 RBI with Boston.

The Red Sox also hope the first baseman/designated hitter can help carry the offense this season. But here's the thing: Ramirez was never a true power hitter. Before joining the Red Sox, Ramirez had hit as many as 30 homers just once in nine seasons.

Hanley's game was built around speed and hitting. He led the majors with 125 runs in 2008 and won the National League batting title in 2009 with a .342 average. He also stole 51 bags in back-to-back seasons (2006, 2007).

That player is long gone.

After scoring at least 100 runs in four consecutive seasons, 2006-2009, Ramirez has never done it again. The closest he's come in the last seven years was in 2016, when he scored 81 runs for Boston.

Ramirez batted at least .300 in four consecutive seasons (2007-2010) and he hit a stellar .345 in 2013. However, sandwiched around that outstanding season, Ramirez has posted batting averages of .243, .257, .249 and .242. Having your batting average decline by 100 points is like falling off a cliff.

Lastly, while Ramirez was once a genuine stolen base threat, he has't swiped more than 14 bags in the last five seasons. Hanley's speed has gone away, as it generally does for most players as they age.

However, his on-base skills have also declined measurably, right along with his batting average. Hanley has posted an on-base percentage of at least .350 just once in his three seasons with Boston and just three times over the last seven years. Players who don't get on base a good clip don't score regularly.

Power is usually the last thing to go for a big league hitter, yet Hanley has never been a genuine power hitter. Since 2011, he's gone entire seasons with just 10, 13 and 19 homers.

This is the reality the Red Sox are facing as Ramirez is set to begin his fourth season in Boston. All of the 34-year-old's greatest skills have severely declined and the one skill the Red Sox want from him, power, is something that was never his strong suit from the beginning.

Unless band work proves to be the fountain of youth for Ramirez, the Red Sox will do all they can to make sure that he doesn't make 497 plate appearances this season.

That's the magic number that automatically vests his $22 million contract for 2019.

Will the Red Sox Make a Buy-Low Bid for Miguel Cabrera?

JD Martinez is said to be “fed up" with the Red Sox and their skimpy, little $125 million, five-year offer. At this point, it’s likely that the Sox are equally fed up with Martinez. The club has reportedly been looking into alternatives all winter long.

Could Miguel Cabrera be one of them?

Dave Dombrowski used to be the General Manager of the Detroit Tigers and was at the helm when the club signed Cabrera to a massive extension in March, 2014.

Cabrera's eight-year, $248 million contract with the Tigers runs through 2023. The pact has an annual average salary of $31 million. There are still six years and $184 million remaining on that deal, plus options in 2024 and 2025. Those options vest with a top-10 finish in the MVP voting the year prior, but include an $8 million buyout.

The terms of the contract stipulate that Cabrera enjoys full no-trade protection. However, being part of a non-competitive team that will be engaging in a long-term rebuild may not be all that palatable to the two-time MVP. Over the past seven months, Cabrera has watched the Tigers trade away J.D. Martinez, Justin Verlander, Justin Upton and Ian Kinsler.

With the bulk of the team’s veteran leadership having left town, Cabrera might not need all that much coaxing to accept a trade to a highly competitive team. The Red Sox might fit the bill.

But would Boston be interested in trading for the 11-time All Star if Detroit made him available?

At age 34, Cabrera has likely peaked and begun his inevitable decline. Last season was undoubtedly the worst of his 15-year career. Playing in only 130 games, Cabrera slashed just .249/.329/.399, numbers that were way off his stellar career averages. After all, he won the Triple Crown in 2012, becoming the first player to achieve the illustrious feat since Carl Yastrzemski in 1967.

Furthermore, the first baseman has topped 30 home runs just once in the last four seasons. That said, Cabrera won a batting title as recently as 2015, when he hit .338, and he batted .316 just two seasons ago. In fact, excluding his disastrous 2017 campaign, when he posted a -0.8 WAR, Cabrera batted at least .300 for eight consecutive seasons and 11 of the previous 12. In that span, Cabrera won four batting titles.

Cabrera will turn 35 in April, yet it is unlikely that he's suddenly washed up. The careers of great players don’t usually go off a cliff; they suffer a more gradual, prolonged decline.

Still, having a 35-year-old under contract for at least six more seasons is a very bad business decision. Having that player under contract for six more years at the cost of $184 is a nightmare.

Listed at six feet, four inches and 240 pounds, Cabrera has a body that already isn't aging well. Have you seen him run? He looks like he’s 60.

There is not a GM in baseball that would sign Cabrera this winter to a six-year, $184 million deal. That would blow away what JD Martinez will eventually get and Martinez is more than four years younger. In short, former Tigers’ owner Mike Ilitch made an emotional, and regretable, decision when he extended Cabrera four years ago. Ilitich is now deceased and doesn’t have to live with the aftermath of that ill-advised choice.

Few players should be under contract at age 38; Cabrera will be under contract through at least age 40, even if his two option years do not vest.

That’s the Tigers’ problem right now, despite the fact that Cabrera is a fan favorite and has been a franchise cornerstone. The question is whether they can make his albatross contract someone else’s problem.

Quite clearly, Detroit would have to kick in a substantial amount of money to move Cabrera off their payroll. How much? A lot. Last season, Cabrera literally had negative value. The Tigers could have found a replacement player at league-minimum salary. That’s a bitter pill.

As I’ve said repeatedly, the problem with long-term contracts is that they are backward looking, rewarding players for they did in the past. While Cabrera may have been worth $30 million per season from ages 26-31, he is certainly not worth that much today and he surely won’t be at any time over the next six seasons.

Cabrera may, perhaps, be worth half that much. At this point, he can only play first base and his range there already more limited than it used to be. His slipping defense will eventually relegate him to a DH spot, and that time is likely sooner than later. Yet, Cabrera is already so slow that he can clog up the base paths and that will only worsen in the coming years.

So, would the Tigers kick in half of Cabrera’s salary to get the Red Sox to take him off their hands? To be sure, there are few teams that would be able, much less willing, to take Cabrera even at that price. Would the Red Sox be willing? They surely have the resources, but would such a move make sense?

Boston seems unwilling to offer Cabrera’s former teammate, JD Martinez, a six-year deal and he’s just 30. Based on that alone, it seems unlikely that Dombrowski has reached out, or would reach out, to his former team to swing a deal for Cabrera.

The reality is that the Tigers never should have offered Cabrera the deal he gladly accepted and now they are living with the regrettable aftermath. It’s a cautionary tale for all teams considering long term contracts that would take players into their late 30s, much less age 40 — even if they are superstars and the face of their franchise.

Though JD Martinez Would Aid Red Sox Lineup, He Still Has Flaws

The Red Sox won 93 games in each of the last two seasons and back-to-back AL East crowns for the first time in club history. Yet, they won just a single playoff game in that span. Most of the blame for the team’s playoff struggles last year was placed on the offense; Boston was outscored 24-18 and bounced in the first round.

The retirement of David Ortiz after the 2016 season left a gaping hole in the middle of their order. Yet, even though the Sox didn’t replace Big Papi, they still scored the sixth-most runs in the AL with Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, Jackie Bradley Jr., Dustin Pedroia and Hanley Ramirez all having less productive seasons than they did in 2016.

Those five players combined for 41 fewer home runs last year than in 2016. We can only hope that offseason shoulder surgery will make Ramirez productive and consistent once again. The same can be said for Pedroia’s offseason knee surgery.

It’s likely that most, if not all, of the above hitters will perform better this season. However, Boston would really benefit from a genuine middle-of-the-order threat in its lineup. How much do the Red Sox need to secure a power hitter this offseason? Consider this: Boston’s cleanup spot was No. 25 in the majors in OPS last season and their No. 5 spot had the lowest OPS in baseball.

Though the Boston offense should still be potent this year, it would certainly benefit from the presence of JD Martinez.

Martinez mashed 45 home runs last season, despite playing in only 119 games. The 30-year-old outfielder also hit .303, while adding 104 RBI. But here's the weird part: Martinez hit just 26 doubles last season. That's really odd for a guy with so much outfield power. The vast majority of Martinez’s extra-base hits are home runs, which is strange.

Not every swing will clear the fences. A batter needs to not only knock in runs, but consistently put himself in scoring position and then score. Oddly, Martinez doesn’t do that nearly as much as I had imagined. He has never scored 100 runs and over the last two seasons has scored just 38 and 47, respectively.

There are legitimate concerns about Martinez, who missed significant time in five of his first six seasons, including 85 games the past two seasons. That raises reasonable apprehension about his ability to stay on the field. Over seven seasons, Martinez has played in more than 123 games just once.

Martinez is by far the best hitter available in this free agent class, but there are major flaws in his game.

Due to his poor defense and base running, which both rank negatively in terms of metrics, Martinez has a career 14.6 WAR, which puts him in line with Todd Frazier (14.8 WAR) and Edwin Encarnacion (14.5 WAR).

Frazier, 32, just signed a two-year, $17 million contract with the Mets. That deal surely has fewer years and dollars than the third baseman was expecting. However, the free market determines a player’s worth.

Last offseason, the then 34-year-old Encarnacion saw his market plummet and he eventually settled for a three-year, $60 million deal, with a $5 million buyout on a fourth-year option worth $25 million.

The 30-year-old Martinez has a reported five-year, $125 million offer from Boston awaiting his signature, yet he won’t budge from his demands, reportedly for a seven-year contract in the neighborhood of $30 million per season.

Though Martinez has been one of the best hitters in baseball over the past four years, his poor base running and below average defense are dragging down his value. Martinez’s WAR is not nearly as high as one would expect from a player with his hitting capabilities.

That's because baseball is about more than just hitting or slugging. Defense really matters, as does base running. Martinez’s overall value, as represented by his 14.6 WAR, is comparable to players like Frazier and Encarnacion, who got significantly less money in free agency.

With all of this in mind, the Red Sox reported five-year, $125 million offer to Martinez seems quite fair, even generous. If the Red Sox can get him at that price, it would be worth their while. He could certainly help lift the offense.

The Yankees finished one game shy of the World Series and they responded by beefing up their potent offense even further by trading for National League MVP Giancarlo Stanton.

Last season, the Red Sox were last in the American League, with 168 home runs.

Meanwhile, four current Yankees -- Stanton (59), Aaron Judge (52), Gary Sanchez (33) and Didi Gregorius (25) -- combined for 169 homers.

The Bronx Bombers’ offense got a whole lot better on paper this offseason, but the battle for first place should still be a dogfight.

Martinez would help, but this shouldn’t be a ransom negotiation.

Dave Dombrowski is playing it smart. If some other team wanted Martinez at his asking price, he would already be a member of that team. Dombrowski is wise not to bid against himself.

This Free Agent Market is Slow Due to Greed and Delusion

Much has been made about the glacial pace of free agent signings this offseason. Some observers have even wondered aloud if team owners are engaged in collusion, actively deciding not to sign players in an effort to drive down their price tags. It makes for a good conspiracy theory, but the facts tell a different story.

In fact, eight of MLB Trade Rumors top-10 free agents this winter have either signed or been offered generous contracts. The same can be said for 12 of the top-14 and 16 of the top-20 free agents.

Clearly, large offers have been made and many of the top free agents have, in fact, signed contracts.

The most interesting aspect of this slow free agency period is the number of top free agents who have declined lucrative offers. For example:

The Red Sox have reportedly offered JD Martinez a five-year deal in the neighborhood of $125M. To this point, no other offers have been reported. The number of teams that both need and can afford a $125M hitter this offseason is quite limited.

Despite this, Martinez thinks Boston’s offer is not good enough and refuses to accept it. He is said to be “fed up” with the very team that has offered him the highest annual value of any player this offseason. Go figure.

Eric Hosmer reportedly has a seven-year, $147M offer from the Royals and a seven-year, $140M offer from the Padres on the table. Apparently, neither offer is good enough for Hosmer, who has so far refused to sign.

Yu Darvish has been given a formal offer by the Twins, reportedly 4-5 years in length. According to various reports, Darvish has received multiple offers worth $100M-plus, including several five-year offers. Still, Darvish refuses to sign because none of them are good enough for him.

The 31-year-old is believed to be seeking a deal in the range of $150M-$175M. That would necessitate a contract of at least six years, which is unjustifiable.

Reliever Greg Holland reportedly rejected the Rockies' offer of three years and $52 million. He also rejected the Rockies' $17.4M qualifying offer at the start of the offseason.

Righty Alex Cobb reportedly rejected a three-year, $42 million contract from the Chicago Cubs. He also rejected the Rays' $17.4M qualifying offer at the start of the offseason.

The Cubs are reportedly willing to bring back Jake Arrieta on a four-year, $110 million deal and the Brewers are believed to have made a similar offer in length. Arrieta also rejected the Cubs’ $17.4M qualifying offer at the start of the offseason.

The other remaining top free agents, Lance Lynn and Mike Moustakas, also rejected $17.4M qualifying offers.

Are we supposed to feel bad for these guys?

What do Martinez, Hosmer, Moustakas and Arrieta all have in common? Scott Boras is their agent. This log jam, then, is little surprise. Boras likes to drag negotiations late into the offseason, extracting every last million.

Boras has a history of getting his clients long-term contracts, spanning seven or eight years, which those players almost never live up to. The thinking seems to be: Pay these players for their past accomplishments and don’t be concerned if they can’t perform well enough to justify their rich, long term deals.

However, team owners and GMs have finally come to their senses and realized that long term pacts are horrible business decisions that clog up rosters and leave them searching for replacements when the players cannot fulfill their long-term deals.

If players truly believe they are worth seven and eight-year contracts, they should sign four-year deals this winter and then seek new three or four-year deals when their contracts expire. Inflation will have only driven up the annual value of their future contracts. Why won’t the players do this? It’s because even they don’t believe in themselves over that length of time. They know they are likely to become injured or otherwise decline. So, if the players don’t even believe in themselves, why should the owners and GMs?

The problem with this free agent market is that the top players have lost touch with reality and become deluded by greed. It’s not that there aren’t good offers out there for the top talent available; it’s that those players think the existing offers just aren’t good enough.

This market is slow because the top free agents refuse to accept generous offers. They keep waiting for some mystery team to come out of nowhere and blow them away with an even bigger, longer offer. It’s a combination of greed and overvaluing themselves. A free market will always tell you what you or your product is really worth.

If these players would just get over their delusions of grandeur and accept reality (as well as some very generous offers), this market would quickly thaw and get moving for the mid-level players.

Spring training opens next week.

Stop Expecting Rick Porcello to Repeat His 2016 Season

Coming into last season, the Red Sox were widely viewed as having perhaps the best rotation in baseball. They had just obtained Chris Sale in a big, offseason trade with the White Sox; former Cy Young Award winner David Price was approaching his second year with the club (meaning his assimilation and adjustment period to Boston was supposedly over); and Rick Porcello was the reigning AL Cy Young winner.

Sale was almost other worldly for most of the 2017 season. Price, injured for much of the year, was shifted to the bullpen to lessen the burden on his left elbow. Porcello, however, remained healthy, but still took a huge step backward.

In 2016, the righty had posted a league-best 22-4 record, with a 3.15 ERA and a miniscule 1.00 WHIP. Over 223 innings, Porcello gave up just 193 hits while striking out 189 batters. He also led the AL with a 5.91 strikeout-to-walk ratio. The performance earned Porcello the Cy Young Award, for which he beat Justin Verlander by just five votes.

It was an odd season for a pitcher who had posted a 4.92 ERA just the year before and who had posted an ERA well above 4.00 in five of the previous six years. In fact, over seven seasons, Porcello had a career 4.41 ERA. That made 2016 a freak year for him and, unfortunately, gravity (or reality) pulled him back to earth in 2017.

In 2016, Porcello had an OPS against of .635; in 2017 it was .826. In virtually every way, Porcello’s 2016 season was a statistical outlier; the rest of his career has been marked by mediocrity.

The veteran finished the 2017 season with an 11-17 record (the most losses in the AL and the most of his career) and a 4.65 ERA. Porcello also gave up 38 homers last season, tying the club record set by Tim Wakefield in 1996.

In short, Porcello went from being the best starter in the American League to one of the worst in the span of just one year.

So, who is the real Rick Porcello? Well, he’s a lot closer to the pitcher we saw in 2017 than the one who shined in 2016. The career stats prove it.

Prior to 2016, Porcello had thrown 200 innings just once in his seven-year career. His ERA had also been below league average in five of those seven seasons. Furthermore, in an era dominated by strikeouts, Porcello still hasn't fanned 200 batters in any season.

The Red Sox were persuaded by Porcello’s age (26) and his potential when they obtained him from Detroit in exchange for Yoenis Céspedes in Dec. 2014. They thought the righty was just coming into his own and still had tremendous upside. Boston liked him so much that they gave him a four-year, $82.5 million extension in April, 2015, before he had even thrown a single pitch for the team.

Quite simply, Porcello didn’t earn his $12.5 million salary (from his Detroit contract) in 2015, a season in which he went 9-15 with a 4.92 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP. Wins have certainly fallen out of favor in modern statistical analysis, but they’re quite revealing when a pitcher has an ERA nearing 5.00.

However, in 2016 Porcello earned every dollar of $20 million salary. The Red Sox won 93 games and the AL East, which earned them a playoff spot.

However, Porcello was shelled in his lone start against Cleveland in the ALDS and took the loss. He set the tone in Game 1, when he surrendered 5 runs (which included 3 homers) on 6 hits in just 4.1 innings. Boston lost the next two games as well and were summarily bounced in the first round.

The poor performance was an omen of what was to come for Porcello in 2017.

So, what should we expect from him this season?

Well, at the least, most of us have wisely tempered our expectations. It’s likely that we will never again see the pitcher that Porcello was in 2016. That was a unicorn performance. It’s not likely that he will earn his $21 million salary this season or next.

Porcello has a career 4.25 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP. He pitches to contact and puts a lot of guys on base. When that happens, a pitcher relies heavily on his defense to keep those baserunners from scoring. That’s a gamble and it’s usually a losing proposition, as we saw last season.

The reality is that Porcello is among the worst starting pitchers to have ever won the Cy Young Award and he’s really a No. 3 pitcher, at best. We have to look past the $21 million salary and the Cy Young Award and just accept that.

Tempering our expectations is the best way to avoid any further frustration and disappointment.