Red Sox Poised for Yet Another Last Place Finish in 2024

 

Red Sox ownership's lack of interest in the team and regard for its fans is astonishing.

In the midst of self-imposed belt tightening, the Red Sox appear poised for yet another last place finish this season.

After having a $181.2M Opening Day payroll in 2023, Red Sox president Sam Kennedy said Friday night at the Winter Weekend event that the team’s payroll would probably drop again this season. The Sox currently have approximately $177.5M on the books for 2024, according to Roster Resource. Last year's figure ranked 12th in all of baseball, the first time in the 21st century that the Red Sox weren’t at least in the top ten in Opening Day spending. This year will mark the second.

So far, the club's only significant free agent signing was a two-year, $38.5M rebound deal for Lucas Giolito. Any further roster additions before spring training will likely be lower-tier free agents on short-term contracts. Yet, that could still require shedding some payroll first.

Meanwhile, the Sox still have the highest ticket prices in baseball. As long as Fenway Park remains a tourist destination for fans and travelers around the country, ownership is confident that they’ll continue to make plenty of money from ticket sales, Red Sox fans be damned.

This newfound frugality is unexpected and perhaps unexplainable. The Sox had the highest payroll in the game in 2018, the second highest in 2004 and 2007, and the third highest in 2013. The results were pretty spectacular each time.

No one should have expected Craig Breslow to come in guns blazing in his first year. He needs to assess the minor league system and see what he’s got. Which prospects does he really believe in? Who’s worth trading? This team is not two pieces from being a World Series contender, and Breslow knows it. He’s playing for 2025 and 2026. That said, he needs to do more this offseason to rebuild fan trust and give people a reason to go to Fenway and watch on TV. He needs to at least keep the Sox out of last place, make them competitive, and make them worth watching again.

Reasonable fans don’t want the Sox to do just anything; not every big ticket free agent makes sense and many will underperform their contracts. However, the Red Sox inability or unwillingness to make substantial improvements to the roster, particularly the rotation, are frustrating to the point of being maddening. 

Spring training is three weeks away. Here's the Red Sox projected 2024 rotation:

STARTER - CAREER STARTS, ERA, WHIP
Lucas Giolito - 178, 4.43, 1.25
Brayan Bello - 39, 4.37, 1.46
Nick Pivetta - 152, 4.86, 1.35
Kutter Crawford - 36, 4.74, 1.25

That leaves the rotation at least a man short. It's also a rotation mostly consisting of No. 4 and No. 5 starters, all of whom have career ERA's of roughly 4.50. Obviously, there is no ace to lead the staff. Tanner Houck and Garrett Whitlock have clearly proven that they belong in the bullpen, not the rotation. They are not solutions. The same could be fairly said about Pivetta and Crawford.

Yet, Breslow said in an interview that he’s comfortable letting Whitlock, Houck and Josh Winckowski compete for the fifth starter role. The team is already going to be relying on Pivetta and Crawford, both of whom should be in the bullpen anyway. 

The construction of the rotation is, at the least, complacent or negligent. It shows no regard for the team or the fans. All signs point to yet another last-place finish in 2024. 

The Sox have a decent core right now. They are not a World Series competitor, but why not sign Jordan Montgomery and at least make the club interesting and more competitive? How would giving him a 5-6 year deal screw up their timeline for contention? They seem to be placing all of their focus on the future and none on the present. They’re losing fans as a result. 

It’s pretty astonishing that after three last place finishes in the past four years, the Red Sox are still in the midst of a rebuild. The question of how much longer it will take is a really valid one. 

The Sox traded Mookie Betts four years ago, got nothing to show for it, and still haven’t recovered. If they had to sign one guy to a massive long-term contract, Mookie was that guy, not Rafael Devers, who they extended in a panic and under great public pressure. It’s quite apparent that the Sox grossly overpaid Devers (10 years, $313.5M), who had negative-9 defensive runs saved in 2023 and has negative-53 defensive runs saved in seven major league seasons. He'll need to move to DH sooner than later, and he's still just 27 years old! Screwing up the Mookie negotiations caused them to overplay their hand with Devers.

John Henry seems quite distracted by other interests; he didn’t even show up for Friday night's event. He wasn’t available to the media when Bloom was fired either, leaving the explaining to Sam Kennedy. Other than a few informal exchanges with reporters during the 2021 postseason and a few email exchanges with two reporters last February, Henry has not made himself available to the media in a press conference setting since February of 2020, almost four years ago. Yet, a lot has happened in the interim. The club has hired two managers, fired one chief baseball officer and hired another, lost a home-grown, cornerstone player in free agency, and given out the biggest contract in franchise history. They’ve also finished in last place three times in those four years. Yet, Henry is busy with other things. It shows. 

The team is being mismanaged and their brand is being ruined. Henry has clearly lost interest and should sell the franchise. Empty seats at Fenway and plunging NESN ratings may be the only way to get his attention.

Get ready for another long and disappointing season, Red Sox fans.

The Red Sox Brand is Slowly Being Destroyed Right Before Our Eyes

 

Just a cursory glance at the Red Sox roster moves this offseason indicates that management is playing the long game. There is no indication that leadership thinks this club is a World Series contender or even a playoff contender, for that matter. 

The Sox' biggest splurge, so far, is the 2-year, $38.5M deal for Lucas Giolito. New outfielder Tyler O’Neill is under club control for just one season. Reliever Cooper Criswell, who was signed for the bargain basement price of $1M, is under club control for six seasons, if he can somehow manage to keep a job that long. New second baseman Vaughn Grissom, who was obtained for Chris Sale, will play for the rookie minimum and is under club control for the next six seasons. He could be a keeper and will likely amount to an upgrade over the carousel of second baseman who manned the position last year. However, he will not move the needle in 2024 and push the Red Sox into a playoff position. 

So, if the Sox are content with obtaining young players with multiple years of club control, and signing free agents to short-term deals, then why not sign righty Marcus Stroman, who just accepted a two-year, $37M deal with the Yankees? That’s less than Giolito cost. Stroman is battle-tested in the AL East and over nearly six seasons in Toronto compiled a solid 3.76 ERA across 135 appearances (129 starts). After opting out of the shortened 2020 campaign, Stroman pitched to a 3.02 ERA for the Mets, across a league-leading 33 starts during the 2021 season. Stroman spent 2022 with pitched the Cubs and posted a 3.50 ERA across 138 2/3 innings of work. Last season, he posted an incredible 2.28 ERA over 98 2/3 innings across his first 16 starts, before injuries derailed his season. 

Why wouldn't that guy be of interest to the myopic Red Sox, who are clearly waiting for their top prospects to start arriving in 2025? Stroman would have perfectly fit their timeline. That’s what makes this offseason so confusing. By the way, even after Marcello Mayer and Kyle Teel arrive, when was the last time a team consisting primarily of first- and second-year players led the Red Sox, or any other club, to a World Series title? It’s a rhetorical question. 

Shota Imanaga, who the Red Sox scouted and evaluated extensively, was one of their free agent targets since the start of the offseason. Yet, the Sox were runners up to the Cubs, who gave the Japanese star a four-year, $53M guarantee. A short-term, low-cost, incentive-laden deal is right up the Sox' alley. Did Imanaga simply pick the Cubs over the Sox? If so, it’s an embarrassment to the Red Sox organization, which used to be able to sign virtually any free-agent target they set their sights on. Though some evaluators project Imanaga as a No. 3 starter, how did the Red Sox get outbid for, or looked over by, a No. 3 starter? Missing out on Stroman, Imanaga, and Yoshinobu Yamamoto (who wouldn't even give the Red Sox a courtesy visit) could have far reaching effects.

Acquiring starters Jesus Luzardo from the Marlins or Dylan Cease from the White Sox will require parting with a bounty of top prospects. Why not just spend money on free agents and keep the prospects? After all, John Henry is, you know, a billionaire, and the Red Sox have the highest ticket prices in the game. They can afford to splurge this offseason.

MLBTR predicted that Blake Snell would land a contract of $200M over seven years, and that Jordan Montgomery will get a six year, $150M deal. I’d take Montgomery over Snell in a heartbeat, and he’d at least make the Red Sox more interesting and give them a chance to win every fifth day.

Over seven seasons (three of which he barely pitched, due to injuries), the 31-year old Montgomery has gone 38-34, allowing 706 hits and fanning 705 batters over 755 innings, resulting in a 3.68 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP. Hey, Craig Breslow, go get that guy now! 

The Red Sox brand is slowly being destroyed right before our eyes. The organization needs to make the team interesting this season and give fans a reason to tune in and show up at the ballpark. Excluding the shortened 2020 season, attendance in 2022 and 2023 fell below 2.7 million for the first time since 2002, the first year of Henry’s ownership. After three last-place finishes in the past four years, the fans aren't interested in a 2025-2026 timeline. Baseball has been losing younger fans for years. At this rate, the Red Sox stand to lose an entire generation, which they may never get back. They’d better take this seriously and act quickly. Time is wasting.

The free agent starter pickings are increasingly slim, led by names like Hyun Jin Ryu, Michael Lorenzen and Mike Clevinger. None of them will inspire hope or interest. The Red Sox had better get Montgomery now and save whatever’s left of their flagging reputation.