The Red Sox Inability to Develop Starters Is Haunting Them

Nathan Eovaldi, who has a 4-3 record and a 5.49 ERA since the start of 2019, anchors the Red Sox' rotation.

The Red Sox have used 11 different starting pitchers this season, and they did so within their first 22 games, which is both mind-boggling and record-tying.

Boston has used the following pitchers to start games (so far) this year: Nathan Eovaldi, Martín Pérez, Colten Brewer, Ryan Brasier, Ryan Weber, Zack Godley, Austin Brice, Josh Osich, Matt Hall, Chris Mazza and Kyle Hart.

Only Eovaldi and Brasier were with Boston prior to last season; both joined the club in 2018.

Pérez signed a one-year, free-agent contract with the Red Sox in December. He had posted a 6.22 ERA with Texas in 2018 and a 5.22 ERA with Minnesota in 2019.

Brewer was obtained from the Padres for infielder Esteban Quiroz after the 2018 season. He had made just 11 relief appearances for San Diego, recording a 5.59 ERA in the process. Brewer was twice sent to Pawtucket during the 2019 season.

Weber signed a minor league contract with Boston in December 2018. He was previously waived by Atlanta, DFA'd by Seattle, and twice DFA'd by Tampa.

Godley signed a minor league deal with Boston in July of this year. He was previously DFA'd by Arizona and Toronto, and then released by Detroit.

Brice was acquired in January from the Marlins in exchange for minor league second baseman Angeudis Santos. Brice was previously waived by Cincinnati and the LA Angels, and then DFA'd by both Baltimore and Miami.

Osich was claimed off waivers last October. He had been previously DFA'd by San Francisco and Baltimore, and then waived by the White Sox.

Hall was obtained from Detroit in January for minor league catcher Jhon Nuñez. The Sox assigned him to Class-A Advanced Salem. Hall posted a 14.63 ERA over five appearances with Detroit in 2018 and a 7.71 ERA over 16 appearances in 2019.

Mazza was claimed off waivers in December and optioned to Class-A Advanced Salem. He had been released by both Minnesota and Miami, and was then DFA'd by the Mets.

Hart was drafted by the Red Sox in the 19th round of the 2016 draft. He is the only one of these 11 pitchers that was drafted and developed by the Red Sox.

None of the seven pitchers signed by Boston during the offseason or during this season provided any reasonable sense of hope or optimism. At best, they were long shots.

Eovaldi is the only one among this large group who was in Boston's starting rotation last season.

The losses of Chris Sale and Eduardo Rodriguez have been devastating to the Sox' rotation, to say nothing of the trade of David Price to the Dodgers. When any team is reduced to one-fifth of it’s previous season’s rotation, it is in big trouble or, at least, in big transition. 

Rick Porcello’s free agent departure to the Mets is a wash; the righty has gone 1-3, with a 5.76 ERA and 1.64 WHIP this season.

However, the Red Sox troubles aren’t solely related to the absences/losses of Sale, Rodriguez, Price and Porcello; they’re related to the organization’s decade-long failure to draft and develop successful starting pitchers. The last such pitcher was Clay Buchholz, who debuted all the way back in 2007.

The Red Sox inability in this regard has been both extraordinary and uncanny. This is why they've consistently resorted to signing costly free agents and trading valuable minor league talent to acquire big league pitchers through the years.

The rest of the Red Sox pitching staff is comprised by castoffs and reclamation projects.

Dylan Covey was obtained from Tampa in a July trade. He had a 6.96 ERA through 250 major league innings. Consequently, Covey was not on the Rays’ 40-man roster at the time of the trade.

Jeffrey Springs was obtained in a January trade with Texas in exchange for Sam Travis. The lefty had pitched 32 innings for the Rangers in each of the previous two seasons, posting a 4.89 ERA.

Robert Stock was claimed off waivers from the Phillies in July. At the time, Stock had a 4.11 ERA over 50 1/3 career innings as a reliever with the Padres from 2018-19. The righty, who was a second-round pick for the Cardinals in the 2009 draft, had stints in Mexico and independent baseball before making his big league debut in 2018.

Josh Taylor was acquired from Arizona in May 2018 as the "player to be named later" in the Deven Marrero trade. At the time, Taylor had been playing in Class A-Advanced.

Marcus Walden had been in the Toronto, Oakland and Minnesota organizations before signing with the Red Sox in December 2016. He made his big league debut with Boston in 2018.

Phillips Valdéz had been with the Cleveland, Washington, Texas and Seattle organizations before being claimed off waivers in February.

Is it any wonder that the Red Sox 5.89 staff ERA is the second-worst in baseball?

It’s also worth noting that the Red Sox still have the third-highest payroll in baseball this season. Clearly, they’re not getting a reasonable return on their investment.

The Red Sox are in the midst of a considerable rebuild or transition. We can assume that E-Rod will be back in the rotation next season, but Sale may not be back until mid-season. If Eovaldi and/or Pérez aren’t traded, Boston will still need two more reliable starters for its rotation next year.

It’s hard to imagine any of the pitchers mentioned above being one of them.

Among the Red Sox' top-ten prospects, according to MLB.com, five are pitchers: Bryan Mata (R), Noah Song (R), Jay Groome (L), Thad Ward (R) and Tanner Houck (R). Only Mata and Houck are advanced enough to potentially pitch in the majors next season. Yet, both remain entirely unproven at the major league level and could ultimately end up in the bullpen.

In other words, Boston still doesn’t have internal answers to its numerous pitching problems.

The failures of the Red Sox' pitching development program will continue to haunt them for at least the next few seasons.

Minor League Infielders Offer Intriguing Possibility for Red Sox

 

Since various minor leaguers have either being promoted to the majors or traded in recent years, the Red Sox farm system has been significantly depleted and now ranks 25th in baseball, according to MLB.com. The trade of Mookie Betts and David Price, however, helped to replenish the organization’s stock by returning middle infielder Jeter Downs and catcher Connor Wong.

Downs is now the Red Sox' No. 1 prospect, according to new rankings by MLB.com. He leapfrogged former No. 1 pick Triston Casas, a power-hitting first baseman who dropped to second place among the organization’s prospects.

The 20-year-old Casas, who was drafted in 2018, is an imposing 6-foot-4, 240-pound slugger who displays tremendous power from the left side. Casas was drafted as a third baseman, but, despite his strong arm, lacks range at the position. So, the Red Sox shifted him to the other side of the diamond. Though his major league arrival is projected for some time in 2022, a strong showing next season could lead to an expedited call-up.

First baseman Bobby Dalbec is the Sox No. 3 prospect. Listed at 6-foot-4, 227 pounds, the 25-year-old Dalbec also played third base in college and the minors. But with Rafael Devers' emergence as an All Star-caliber third baseman, the Sox have utilized Dalbec at first base in the minors, viewing him as the position's heir apparent next season.

It isn't likely that the Sox would platoon Dalbec and Casas at first base. However, since Dalbec also plays third, it raises an interesting possibility.

The Red Sox desperately need pitching for the 2021 season and beyond. They have Chris Sale under control through at least 2024 (2025 club option) and Nathan Eovaldi through 2022. Eduardo Rodriguez becomes a free agent after next season, unless he is extended. However, Sale and E-Rod are both suffering from health issues and their status for next season remains unclear. No matter, Boston's rotation desperately needs quality additions.

Free agency is always a gamble, especially with pitchers. Most of them don't become available until at least age 30, a time when their health often starts to falter. Moreover, the top free-agent pitchers in the coming offseason are Marcus Stroman, Mike Minor, Jake Odorizzi and Robbie Ray. Boston must do better than that.

The Red Sox need a dynamic young pitcher that they can control for years to come. To get that type of talent in a trade would require giving up an equally dynamic young talent. Enter Devers.

It wouldn't be surprise me if the Sox offer Devers as a trade chip for a young, controllable starter with top-of-the-rotation projectability. The presence of both Dalbec and Casas in their minor league system would allow it. Casas could man first, while Dalbec could shift back the hot corner at the big league level. The presence of both could more than make up for the loss of Devers' power.

It may seem outlandish at first, but Red Sox president and CEO Sam Kennedy recently indicated that the organization is open to trading anyone, if a deal can improve the club in both the near and long term.

“You look at this team and we still have a really young group of core players that you’d like to see with the Red Sox for a long, long time. We’d never label anyone untouchable, just given the fact that sometimes to re-tool and restructure for the future, you do have to sometimes make difficult decisions, as you saw with the Mookie [Betts] transaction. I don’t think anybody would be untouchable as it were, but there are certainly guys who have grown up in the system that we’d like to keep with the Sox for a long, long time.”

Assessing Jackie Bradley Jr.'s Trade and Free Agent Value

The conventional wisdom among the Boston media, and even among some fans, is that the Red Sox will be able to trade Jackie Bradley Jr. by the August 31 deadline, and that Bradley will then be able to score a hefty free agent contract in the upcoming offseason. An example from the Boston media today: "Bradley is on the way to making some serious money for himself." 

 I'm going to throw some cold water on these projections. 

First, let me say that I love Bradley as a person; he's a high-character guy, who always says and does the right thing. I don't think he's ever had a whiff of trouble while with the Red Sox. He’s the kind of person that every team wants on its roster. 

Then there's his Gold Glove-caliber defense and cannon-like arm. Defensively, there's no one else that I'd rather see patrolling center field at Fenway. 

However, there's also the issue of his offense… or lack thereof. Unfortunately, Bradley is like a black hole in the batting order. This season, JBJ is slashing just .224/.296/.265. Small sample, you say? Okay, let's take a broader view. 

Bradly is 30 years old and in his eighth major league season. Over that period, spanning more than 3,000 plate appearances, Bradley has slashed .235/.317/.407/.724. His batting average has declined in each of the last three seasons and this may be the fourth. For his efforts, he’s already collected over $30 million in career earnings. 

I don't think Bradley's offensive output will warrant any sort of decent return in a trade over the next two weeks, so don't hold your breath in anticipation. There's no top prospect coming back to Boston from another organization in a Bradley deal. 

Moreover, those are not the kind of numbers that will warrant a long-term, high-dollar contract in the offseason. Bradley will make a prorated portion of his $11 million salary this season, an amount he surely wouldn't merit on the open market. At best, he's worth about half that amount, and that doesn't take into consideration the new economic realities that MLB will be facing next year and beyond in the new COVID-19 era. 

Bradley will likely be available this offseason for something along the lines of a one-year deal for $5 million, with a second-year option. 

If the Red Sox can get a B-level minor league talent for him over the next two weeks, they should pull the trigger. And if they want Bradley back next year, he'll likely be available on team-friendly terms. 

However, the Sox may be preparing to hand the keys to promising young prospect Jarren Duran, who was the organization’s minor-league baserunner of the year in 2019. The 23-year-old could be an ideal replacement in center next season. 

After watching Duran belt two doubles and make two impressive catches in center field during a July summer-camp game at Fenway, Ron Roenicke came away very impressed by the speedy outfielder. 

“He’s an exciting player. We see his speed and the way he chases balls down in the outfield, and on the double he hit, how fast he got to second. He’s explosive, and we just hope all those tools continue to develop. He should be a really exciting player.”

One way or another, we're likely watching Jackie Bradley's final games in a Red Sox uniform. It's been fun watching him. He may be the greatest defensive center fielder in team history, Tris Speaker and Fred Lynn included.