Assessing Jackie Bradley Jr.'s Trade and Free Agent Value

The conventional wisdom among the Boston media, and even among some fans, is that the Red Sox will be able to trade Jackie Bradley Jr. by the August 31 deadline, and that Bradley will then be able to score a hefty free agent contract in the upcoming offseason. An example from the Boston media today: "Bradley is on the way to making some serious money for himself." 

 I'm going to throw some cold water on these projections. 

First, let me say that I love Bradley as a person; he's a high-character guy, who always says and does the right thing. I don't think he's ever had a whiff of trouble while with the Red Sox. He’s the kind of person that every team wants on its roster. 

Then there's his Gold Glove-caliber defense and cannon-like arm. Defensively, there's no one else that I'd rather see patrolling center field at Fenway. 

However, there's also the issue of his offense… or lack thereof. Unfortunately, Bradley is like a black hole in the batting order. This season, JBJ is slashing just .224/.296/.265. Small sample, you say? Okay, let's take a broader view. 

Bradly is 30 years old and in his eighth major league season. Over that period, spanning more than 3,000 plate appearances, Bradley has slashed .235/.317/.407/.724. His batting average has declined in each of the last three seasons and this may be the fourth. For his efforts, he’s already collected over $30 million in career earnings. 

I don't think Bradley's offensive output will warrant any sort of decent return in a trade over the next two weeks, so don't hold your breath in anticipation. There's no top prospect coming back to Boston from another organization in a Bradley deal. 

Moreover, those are not the kind of numbers that will warrant a long-term, high-dollar contract in the offseason. Bradley will make a prorated portion of his $11 million salary this season, an amount he surely wouldn't merit on the open market. At best, he's worth about half that amount, and that doesn't take into consideration the new economic realities that MLB will be facing next year and beyond in the new COVID-19 era. 

Bradley will likely be available this offseason for something along the lines of a one-year deal for $5 million, with a second-year option. 

If the Red Sox can get a B-level minor league talent for him over the next two weeks, they should pull the trigger. And if they want Bradley back next year, he'll likely be available on team-friendly terms. 

However, the Sox may be preparing to hand the keys to promising young prospect Jarren Duran, who was the organization’s minor-league baserunner of the year in 2019. The 23-year-old could be an ideal replacement in center next season. 

After watching Duran belt two doubles and make two impressive catches in center field during a July summer-camp game at Fenway, Ron Roenicke came away very impressed by the speedy outfielder. 

“He’s an exciting player. We see his speed and the way he chases balls down in the outfield, and on the double he hit, how fast he got to second. He’s explosive, and we just hope all those tools continue to develop. He should be a really exciting player.”

One way or another, we're likely watching Jackie Bradley's final games in a Red Sox uniform. It's been fun watching him. He may be the greatest defensive center fielder in team history, Tris Speaker and Fred Lynn included.