Whether the Red Sox still want Kimbrel next year and beyond is yet to be determined. His performance in the ALCS and, potentially, the World Series could determine his future in Boston.
Craig Kimbrel had a sterling reputation as an elite closer when the Red Sox acquired him from the Padres before the 2016 season. As a rookie in 2011, he was an All Star and ultimately set the rookie record with 46 saves. Kimbrel led the National League in saves for four consecutive seasons, 2011 through 2014, and was an All Star in each of those years.
In his six seasons before arriving in Boston, Kimbrel has a 1.49 career ERA. Five of those years were spent in Atlanta and one in San Diego, both National League clubs. That gave him a bit of an advantage, but no one doubted that Kimbrel could be successful, even dominant, in the American League.
However, while Kimbrel has been outstanding at times with the Red Sox, he has also struggled at times.
After collecting four consecutive 40-plus save seasons prior to arriving in Boston, the closer posted 31 in 33 opportunities in 2016, his first year with the Sox. Though that amounted to a 93.9% save percentage, Kimbrel’s ERA leapt to 3.40, which is not the stuff of an elite closer. Kimbrel only surrendered 28 hits that year, but he also walked 30 batters and hit four, all in just 53 innings. That’s why his ERA was so uncharacteristically high. He did, however, strike out 83 batters. Kimbrel was good enough to make the All Star team that year.
The next year, 2017, Kimbrel undoubtedly had his best season in Boston, posting a 1.43 ERA and a minuscule 0.681 WHIP. The closer was an All Star once again and had 35 saves in 39 opportunities. He pitched 69 innings, allowing 33 hits, 14 walks and hit four batters. Most remarkably, he fanned a whopping 126 hitters that year, resulting in an eye-popping 16.4 strikeouts per nine innings.
This year, Kimbrel’s ERA jumped up to 2.74, the second highest of his career, after 2016. In other words, the two years in which he posted his highest ERAs have come in the three years that he’s been with the Red Sox. Kimbrel had 42 saves in 47 appearances, an 89.4% save percentage. Over 62.1 innings, he gave up just 31 hits, but also walked 31 batters, the second-highest total of his nine-year career. Kimbrel still had 96 punch outs, which was again excellent, though well below the stellar total he amassed in 2017. However, he also allowed a career-high seven home runs this season.
While Kimbrel can usually be relied upon to safely close out games, his nail-biter of a performance against the Yankees in Game 4 of the ALDS wasn’t entirely out of the ordinary. Kimbrel can at times lose command and fail to consistently find the strike zone, as evidenced by the fact that he walked at least 30 batters in two of the past three years.
On Tuesday night, Kimbrel created some unnecessary drama while trying to finish Game 4 and the series. The closer gave up one hit, allowed two walks and hit one batter, putting four men on base in the ninth. Yes, the Red Sox closer put four men on base in the ninth of a closeout game! As a result, he allowed two runs (hitting a batter with the bases-loaded and a sacrifice fly), making the situation much more difficult and challenging than it should have been. It didn't need to be that kind of adventure. Kimbrel nearly gave Red Sox Nation a collective heart attack.
Kimbrel will have to be much more reliable moving forward. The Astros will make him pay in the ALCS. He’s often too erratic and doesn’t throw strikes when he needs to. Walks are unacceptable in October. They will eventually come back to haunt him and the Red Sox.
The Red Sox have a big decision to make regrading Kimbrel this offseason, when he becomes a free agent. The 30-year-old, who will turn 31 in May, is still relatively young and is coming off a four-year, $42 million contract that had a fifth year option, which paid him $13 million this season.
Kimbrel seems to have enjoyed his time in Boston and knows he will be pitching for a contender most years. He also seemed to genuinely appreciate the support the organization gave him when his infant daughter, Lydia Joy, underwent two heart surgeries last winter. According to the closer, the baby girl is recovering well after the operations.
“I’ve loved my last three years here,” Kimbrel said in July. "The city's provided me and my family a lot. And we're very grateful for that. And we'd love to stay. And we love the city.”
He will be the top free agent closer on the market this winter and a five-year deal seems likely, given his age. Perhaps the Red Sox could get him for just four years, but at what cost? Again, he made $13 million this year and will surely be expecting a sizable bump up from that.
Old friend Andrew Miller will also be available this winter, but he has been injured and far less effective than in years past. Can he fully recover? Has he already peaked at age 33? Miller endured three DL stints this season due to troubles with his left hamstring, right knee and left (pitching) shoulder.
Miller made just 37 appearances this year for Cleveland, after making 73 in 2014, 60 in 2015, 70 in 2016 and 57 in 2017. That heavy workload seems to have finally worn him down. Elite relievers are always great... until they aren't.
Cody Allen, also of the Indians, Adam Ottavino of the Rockies, Kelvin Herrera of the Nationals and Zach Britton of the Yankees will also be available. Yet, Kimbrel is the clear leader in a very thin class of relievers with closing experience or ability.
Matt Barnes could potentially give the Red Sox an in-house replacement for Kimbrel. The 28-year-old would certainly be a cheaper option than Kimbrel since he’s arbitration eligible for the first time this offseason. Moreover, he had comparable numbers this year:
Barnes: 14.01 K/9, 4.52 BB/9, 53 GB%
Kimbrel: 13.85 K/9, 4.48 BB/9, 28.2 GB%
Before making any decisions about the future, however, the Red Sox will have to see how far Kimbrel can take them in the ALCS and, hopefully, the World Series. As vital as Chris Sale is to this team’s fortunes, Kimbrel will be equally critical in playoff games that are typically low-scoring affairs won by shut-down pitching.
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