The Red Sox and the Yankees are set to square off in the American League Divisional Series, which starts on Friday night at Fenway.
It will be the first playoff matchup between the storied rivals since 2004. That year, the Red Sox famously came from behind, down games three games to none, and stunned New York by winning four straight and earning a berth into the World Series, which they won in historic fashion for the first time since 1918.
Only three times in MLB history have two 100-win teams met before the World Series. The last time it happened was when the Yankees and Royals met in the 1977 American League Championship Series. This is rare stuff.
The Red Sox and Yankees have made the postseason in the same year 10 times, beginning in 1995. Of course, the Wild Card was first instituted by MLB in 1994, so such a meeting between division rivals was not previously possible. The two teams have met in the postseason just three times — the 1999 ALCS, 2003 ALCS and 2004 ALCS — with the Yankees prevailing twice. Boston would like to even the score this year.
The Red Sox won a franchise record 108 games, including 57 at home and 51 on the road. Winning 50-plus games at home and on the road is a sign of balance. The Red Sox seem to have home-field advantage even in other teams’ ballparks.
However, the Yankees also won 100 games, including 53 at home and 47 on the road. They too are a balanced ball club. But the home field advantage should favor Boston. They’ll need any and every advantage to win this series.
Despite winning 100 games, the Yankees still finished second in the AL East and had to win the AL Wild Card Game. Only 10 times in MLB history has a 100-win team not finished in first place. It's only happened four times in MLB's divisional era, which began in 1969. Before that, going back to 1903, the year of the inaugural World Series, only six other 100-win teams finished second in a pennant race.
Head-to-head in 2018, Boston won the series, going 10-9 against the Yankees, winning seven of 10 at Fenway. The latter will matter in the ALDS.
This is the series that baseball wants. The Red Sox/Yankees may be the best rivalry in all sports. Very few teams — in any sport — have a 118-year rivalry.
The Red Sox were inarguably the best team in baseball this season. Their 108 wins were tops in the sport; Houston was second best, with 103 wins.
The Red Sox were the first team in baseball to reach 30 wins, 40 wins, 50 wins (tied with Yankees and Astros), 60 wins, 70 wins, 80 wins, 90 wins and 100 wins.
Boston led the AL East for 173 days and had an 11 1/2-game lead on Sept. 16. The farthest the Red Sox fell behind all season was two games on June 21. Their longest losing streak was just three games, which occurred only three times.
From April through August, the Red Sox won at least 17 games in every month, including 19 in April and July. Their worst month was September, when they won 15 games. However, early in the month they had already secured a playoff spot and eventually the AL East title. In other words, they weren’t playing with any sense of desperation. They could afford to rest players.
Despite all of this, there is a nagging sense that the Red Sox could lose this series to their arch rivals.
The Yankees’ potent offense is a modern-day Murderers’ Row. New York set a major league record with 267 homers this season. Six Yankees hit at least 20 home runs and five of them hit at least 25.
However, the Red Sox have a more balanced attack. Boston led the majors in batting average (.268), on-base percentage (.339), slugging (.453), OPS (.792), RBI (829), hits (1,509), doubles (355) and runs (876).
Despite all those runs and that powerful slugging percentage, Boston was just ninth in baseball with 208 home runs. In other words, the Red Sox have many ways to score, other than simply belting home runs. The can play small ball, steal bases (third in the majors with 125) and manufacture runs in the process.
Yet, playoff baseball usually comes down to pitching.
Here’s how the two team’s pitching staffs fared this season:
Red Sox / Yankees
Team ERA: 3.75 3.78
Hits: 1,311 1,305
Home Runs: 176 177
Strikeouts: 1,558 1,634
Average: .237 .237
WHIP: 1.25 1.24
As you can see, the numbers are remarkably similar — nearly identical, in fact.
Yet, Red Sox’ pitchers Chris Sale (one playoff start), David Price (nine starts) and Rick Porcello (four starts) are a combined 0-11 with a 6.18 ERA as postseason starters. There's genuine reason for concern, Red Sox fans.
Then there’s the matter that, due to two stints on the disabled list, Sale has thrown just 17 innings since July 31. He displayed significantly decreased velocity in his final start of the regular season, when he averaged 90.2-mph with his four-seamer and topped out at 94.5. The lefty is unquestionably Boston’s best starter — their ace. As Sale goes, so go the Red Sox. Yet, what the Red Sox will get out of him on Friday is anyone’s guess. But if he falters, no one should be surprised.
Price has been an unmitigated disaster in the postseason. He is winless in nine starts and, overall, has a 2-8 record with a 5.03 ERA. He seems to wilt under the glare of the spotlight.
Over 11 games (four starts), Porcello is 0-3 with a 5.47 ERA. That's not encouraging either.
Yes, any one of them could turn it around and perform at his best, but their histories don’t suggest such a rebound.
Nathan Eovaldi is likely to pitch Game 4, if the series extends that far.
The Yankees will counter with starters J.A. Happ (17-6, 3.65 ERA), Masahiro Tanaka (12-6, 3.75) and Luis Severino (19-8, 3.39).
New York may have the edge in the bullpen; it has the superior setup men leading to closer Aroldis Chapman, including Dellin Betances, David Robertson, Zach Britton and Chad Green.
Though Craig Kimbrel is an elite closer, it remains to be seen how manager Alex Cora will get to him. Matt Barnes, Ryan Brasier, Steven Wright, Joe Kelly and Brandon Workman will fill out Boston's bullpen. Though there are reasonable concerns about the Sox’ pen (other than Kimbrel), the relief crew finished with a 3.72 ERA, which was fourth-best in the AL.
Kelly was a total mess in the last few months of the season. Over his last 15 appearances he posted a 6.17 ERA and 1.71 WHIP; over his last seven those numbers rose to 8.31 and 2.54, respectively. Why would Cora or anyone else trust him? Overall, Kelly has a 4.39 ERA and 1.36 WHIP this year. He simply puts too many batters on base.
Barnes missed much of September with inflammation in his left hip. Is he fully healed? We’re about to find out.
Brasier pitched in Japan last year and has never been in the postseason before. Before this season, he had made just seven appearances in the majors, all with the Angels in 2013. However, he emerged into a key bullpen piece for Boston this year, notching a 1.60 ERA in 34 outings.
Wright could give the Sox three or four relief innings, should one of the starters continue his postseason woes. Eduardo Rodriguez could serve as a key lefty out of the pen. That will be critical since every single member of the Boston bullpen in the ALDS is a righty. That's not good.
The Red Sox had a magical season this year. This is the best regular-season Red Sox team that any of us has ever witnessed. But the World Series title isn’t handed to the team with the best regular-season record.
The 2001 Seattle Mariners finished with a 116–46 record, tying the major league record for wins set by the 1906 Chicago Cubs. Yet, they were swiftly eliminated by the Yankees in five games in the American League Championship Series. That outcome serves as the ultimate precautionary tale about regular season exploits. It’s the postseason that counts.
If the Red Sox are to suffer a similar fate, it would hardly be surprising. After all, the Yankees won 100 games this year. They are a dangerous team. And even if the Red Sox prevail in the ALDS, they would then have to face either the defending World Series Champion Houston Astros (103 wins) or the Cleveland Indians (91 wins), both of whom beat Boston in four of seven regular season contests this year.
One club needs to win 11 games to be crowned World Series Champions. This is going to a tough battle. The competition is fierce. Boston’s first hurdle will be the Yankees, and they will present a significant challenge.
For Red Sox fans, there is nothing sweeter than beating the Yankees — except for winning the World Series, of course (though for many fans, beating the Yankees in 2004 was the World Series).
However, there is nothing worse than losing to the Yankees in the playoffs — not even losing the World Series.
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