It will be very interesting to see how the Red Sox 25-man roster finally shapes up as the team breaks camp in Fort Meyers.
There will be a few tough calls, in part because some players are out of options and can't be sent down to the minors.
The team will likely carry their customary 12-man pitching staff. Which players ultimately fill out the bullpen is still in flux.
Jonathan Papelbon, Daniel Bard, Hideki Okajima, Ramon Ramirez, and Manny Delcarmen seem to be assured spots. The remaining two are up fro grabs.
Scott Atchison, Boof Bonser, Joe Nelson, Alan Embree and Scott Schoeneweis are all battling for the last two spots.
Bonser, who is out of options, has had some groin problems this spring. So he'll start the season on the DL, which buys both him and the Red Sox some time.
Embree got shelled on Wednesday, and since there is just one more available spot for a lefty (in addition to Okajima), Schoeneweis will likely get the nod. Atchison, who has been praised by Terry Francona, will probably get the other spot.
The Sox will carry 13 position players, which means there are four open bench spots. Jason Varitek will get one of them, as will Jeremy Hermida.
This means that Tug Hulett and Josh Reddick (who have both opened some eyes this spring), plus the versatile Bill Hall and Mike Lowell are competing for the final two spots.
Hulett, who made his debut in 2008, still has options, So, he will likely start the season in Pawtucket, along with newly acquired infielder Kevin Frandsen.
It's unfortunate that Hulett won't break camp will the big league club because he's earned it. The 27-year-old has baited .289 this spring, has two homers (tied for second) and leads the team with 15 RBI.
Another casualty of the numbers game is Reddick. The young outfielder has had a fantastic spring, leading the club with a .393 batting average and a .696 slugging percentage. He also has two homers, nine doubles and nine RBI.
Despite making the case that he belongs on the big league roster, Reddick still has options and will start the season in the minors. Unfortunately for him, he will be the odd man out, though he has proven himself more deserving than other players.
Bill Hall, though he's batted just .196, will likely make the roster due to his versatility; Hall can play multiple infield and outfield positions.
Furthermore, the Red Sox gave up Casey Kotchman for him, so they probably feel compelled to see how the 30-year-old veteran fares over the season's first couple of months. If he doesn't perform, Hulett will be waiting.
If the Sox can trade Lowell, their roster problem is solved. They would just need to receive a minor league player in return, someone who doesn't need to go on the big league roster right away.
However, with David Ortiz's continuing struggles, the club may think twice before dealing Lowell, who seems to have found his stroke at the plate.
The Sox will have to pay at least $9 million of Lowell's salary to any trade partner. At that cost, it may make more sense just to keep the veteran third baseman. If the team is convinced he can occasionally play first, his value to them is only increased.
The roster will be finalized over the next couple days, at least publicly. The team has likely made its decisions internally at this point, and it will be interesting to see how it all plays out.
Wednesday, March 31, 2010
Tuesday, March 30, 2010
Waiting For David Ortiz To Rebound May Be Wishful Thinking
David Ortiz'z struggles in 2009 are well-documented.
Through 40 games and 149 at-bats last year, Ortiz was batting under .200 and had no home runs. By June 1, he was batting .185 and had one home run.
It was the longest power drought in history to start a season by a player who had hit 50 home runs in a season, as Ortiz did in 2006.
At the All-Star break, Ortiz was batting .222 with 12 homers and 47 RBI. And he continued to come on strong; over the last 69 games of the season, Ortiz hit .258 with 16 home runs and 52 RBI. And over the season's final 104 games, the Red Sox DH had 27 homers and 81 RBI.
But Ortiz went backward in the postseason, posting an anemic .083 batting average that was the result of one hit in 12 at-bats. There were no heroic home runs, no RBI, not even a walk. Ortiz had just one single and four strike outs.
The deep fears the Red Sox faced early in the season came back in a flash. Once again, Ortiz looked like a spent player.
And so far this spring, Ortiz has done nothing to convince anyone that he isn't a shell of the star he once was.
Through most of spring training, Ortiz has reverted, looking like a feeble, frustrated former slugger. He still can't consistently catch up to fastballs, and too often fouls off, pops up, or swings and misses.
In truth, Ortiz's struggles began in 2008, his worst year ever as a Red Sox player. That year he posted a .264/.369/.507 batting line that included just 23 home runs and 89 RBIs. He followed that by hitting .186 with just one home run in the postseason.
For two consecutive seasons, Ortiz has struck out more often than he's walked, a radical departure from his prime years.
And last year, though his power numbers advanced slightly from 2008, his averaged dipped to just .238. That was a huge decline for a player who had hit at least .300 three times in his first six years with the Sox.
Last season, scouts noted that Ortiz was aware he couldn't catch up to the fastball. So he cheated and started so early that he couldn't adjust to the breaking ball. Ortiz was late on fastballs, and early on breaking balls and change-ups.
As a result, teams just pounded Ortiz with fastballs inside because he couldn't consistently drive them.
Red Sox hitting coach Dave Magadan diagnosed Ortiz's problems last year.
"When you start earlier you've got to make up your mind sooner about whether to swing and when you do that you swing at a lot of balls out of the strike zone. When you're able to wait and allow the ball to travel, your ball-strike recognition is better. Once he has trust in being short and direct to the ball, that's when he's going to recognize pitches a little better and that's when we're going to see him driving the ball."
What's worrisome is that Ortiz hasn't been able to maintain proper adjustments, and his negative tendencies have returned.
This spring, through 53 at-bats, Ortiz is hitting .226 with 12 strike outs. He has no walks and a .293 on-base percentage.
It's part of a decline that's been ongoing for a couple of years. However, now that he's in the final year of a contract that will pay him $12.5 million this year, the Red Sox may not be as patient as they were last year.
If Ortiz continues to struggle early on, the Red Sox will likely cut bait and make a move for a reliable hitter.
Ortiz's rapid fade is eerily reminiscent of another former Sox star. Jim Rice was an MVP candidate in 1986, declined rapidly, and was completely washed up by '89. He was just 36 at the time.
Like Rice, the 34-year-old Ortiz has often been mislabeled as a slugger. Both players were viewed as power hitters because each had a proclivity for home runs.
But the truth is, in their primes, both were simply great hitters. Both players hit over .300 numerous times, and because they were big, strong men who often made contact, balls regularly left the park.
But when vision goes, as was the case with Rice, it's over. And when bat speed decreases, as seems to be the case with Ortiz, a hitter's career faces the same consequences.
Just like Rice's sudden and rapid decline, watching David Ortiz wilt is both sad and disappointing.
The Red Sox were hoping for one last hurrah from Ortiz this year, but that appears to be nothing more than wishful thinking at this point.
Through 40 games and 149 at-bats last year, Ortiz was batting under .200 and had no home runs. By June 1, he was batting .185 and had one home run.
It was the longest power drought in history to start a season by a player who had hit 50 home runs in a season, as Ortiz did in 2006.
At the All-Star break, Ortiz was batting .222 with 12 homers and 47 RBI. And he continued to come on strong; over the last 69 games of the season, Ortiz hit .258 with 16 home runs and 52 RBI. And over the season's final 104 games, the Red Sox DH had 27 homers and 81 RBI.
But Ortiz went backward in the postseason, posting an anemic .083 batting average that was the result of one hit in 12 at-bats. There were no heroic home runs, no RBI, not even a walk. Ortiz had just one single and four strike outs.
The deep fears the Red Sox faced early in the season came back in a flash. Once again, Ortiz looked like a spent player.
And so far this spring, Ortiz has done nothing to convince anyone that he isn't a shell of the star he once was.
Through most of spring training, Ortiz has reverted, looking like a feeble, frustrated former slugger. He still can't consistently catch up to fastballs, and too often fouls off, pops up, or swings and misses.
In truth, Ortiz's struggles began in 2008, his worst year ever as a Red Sox player. That year he posted a .264/.369/.507 batting line that included just 23 home runs and 89 RBIs. He followed that by hitting .186 with just one home run in the postseason.
For two consecutive seasons, Ortiz has struck out more often than he's walked, a radical departure from his prime years.
And last year, though his power numbers advanced slightly from 2008, his averaged dipped to just .238. That was a huge decline for a player who had hit at least .300 three times in his first six years with the Sox.
Last season, scouts noted that Ortiz was aware he couldn't catch up to the fastball. So he cheated and started so early that he couldn't adjust to the breaking ball. Ortiz was late on fastballs, and early on breaking balls and change-ups.
As a result, teams just pounded Ortiz with fastballs inside because he couldn't consistently drive them.
Red Sox hitting coach Dave Magadan diagnosed Ortiz's problems last year.
"When you start earlier you've got to make up your mind sooner about whether to swing and when you do that you swing at a lot of balls out of the strike zone. When you're able to wait and allow the ball to travel, your ball-strike recognition is better. Once he has trust in being short and direct to the ball, that's when he's going to recognize pitches a little better and that's when we're going to see him driving the ball."
What's worrisome is that Ortiz hasn't been able to maintain proper adjustments, and his negative tendencies have returned.
This spring, through 53 at-bats, Ortiz is hitting .226 with 12 strike outs. He has no walks and a .293 on-base percentage.
It's part of a decline that's been ongoing for a couple of years. However, now that he's in the final year of a contract that will pay him $12.5 million this year, the Red Sox may not be as patient as they were last year.
If Ortiz continues to struggle early on, the Red Sox will likely cut bait and make a move for a reliable hitter.
Ortiz's rapid fade is eerily reminiscent of another former Sox star. Jim Rice was an MVP candidate in 1986, declined rapidly, and was completely washed up by '89. He was just 36 at the time.
Like Rice, the 34-year-old Ortiz has often been mislabeled as a slugger. Both players were viewed as power hitters because each had a proclivity for home runs.
But the truth is, in their primes, both were simply great hitters. Both players hit over .300 numerous times, and because they were big, strong men who often made contact, balls regularly left the park.
But when vision goes, as was the case with Rice, it's over. And when bat speed decreases, as seems to be the case with Ortiz, a hitter's career faces the same consequences.
Just like Rice's sudden and rapid decline, watching David Ortiz wilt is both sad and disappointing.
The Red Sox were hoping for one last hurrah from Ortiz this year, but that appears to be nothing more than wishful thinking at this point.
Friday, March 26, 2010
Will The Red Sox Get Big Papi or Just David Ortiz?
Over the past couple of seasons, the rapid decline of David Ortiz has been somewhat spectacular.
Ortiz has not hit 30 or more home runs since 2007. His batting average dropped to .264 in 2008, and .238 last year. Meanwhile, his OBP dipped to an anemic .332 last season.
In 2006 and '07, Ortiz had more walks than strikeouts. But last season, Ortiz struck out 134 times and drew 74 walks. And in '08, Ortiz posted 74 strike outs 70 walks.
His current trend is a bad one. He has been going in the wrong direction for two straight years.
That's why there was so much interest in Ortiz going into spring training. If Ortiz swings a potent bat this season, the Red Sox offense will be all the better for it.
But there is reason for concern.
The Red Sox DH started miserably last year, and looked impotent for two solid months. At times Ortiz seemed to lack a pulse. But he still managed to finish the year with 28 homers and 99 RBI. While those are solid numbers for most hitters, they were tepid for the player who became a cult hero over his first five years in Boston.
Much to everyone's disappointment, Ortiz is hitting .214 since the start of spring training. Sadly, many of us are hardly surprised. The scary thought is that, at age 34, Ortiz may be washed up. He looks the same way he did for much of last year at the plate; lost.
Ortiz is fond of saying, "It's not how you start – it's how you finish."
But considering that this is his last year under contract in Boston, if he doesn't start strong, he may not finish the season in Boston.
Mike Lowell is still on the roster, and if he's healthy (a big "if" at this point), he could be seen as a better alternative in the DH spot. Ortiz is a very one-dimensional player; all stick, no glove. And if he has no stick, then what's his value and function?
Lowell suffered a left knee contusion in today's game, the effects of which are unknown at present.
Perhaps of greater concern, he told reporters the other day that his right hip may never recover the mobility he'd been hoping for. He also recognizes that he may be best suited for a DH role in the AL.
While that doesn't exactly inspire hope that he'll ever be the stellar defensive player he once was, Lowell still believes he can hit and there's little reason to doubt him.
Despite his hip injury and subsequent surgery in 2008, Lowell has remained an offensive threat.
That year, Lowell was still a productive hitter, batting .274 with 17 homers, 73 RBI, and a .798 OPS. He followed that last season by batting .290 with 17 homers, 75 RBI, and an .811 OPS.
So while his eventual trade has been widely viewed as a foregone conclusion, given David Ortiz's continued struggles, that may not be the case after all.
Ortiz has not hit 30 or more home runs since 2007. His batting average dropped to .264 in 2008, and .238 last year. Meanwhile, his OBP dipped to an anemic .332 last season.
In 2006 and '07, Ortiz had more walks than strikeouts. But last season, Ortiz struck out 134 times and drew 74 walks. And in '08, Ortiz posted 74 strike outs 70 walks.
His current trend is a bad one. He has been going in the wrong direction for two straight years.
That's why there was so much interest in Ortiz going into spring training. If Ortiz swings a potent bat this season, the Red Sox offense will be all the better for it.
But there is reason for concern.
The Red Sox DH started miserably last year, and looked impotent for two solid months. At times Ortiz seemed to lack a pulse. But he still managed to finish the year with 28 homers and 99 RBI. While those are solid numbers for most hitters, they were tepid for the player who became a cult hero over his first five years in Boston.
Much to everyone's disappointment, Ortiz is hitting .214 since the start of spring training. Sadly, many of us are hardly surprised. The scary thought is that, at age 34, Ortiz may be washed up. He looks the same way he did for much of last year at the plate; lost.
Ortiz is fond of saying, "It's not how you start – it's how you finish."
But considering that this is his last year under contract in Boston, if he doesn't start strong, he may not finish the season in Boston.
Mike Lowell is still on the roster, and if he's healthy (a big "if" at this point), he could be seen as a better alternative in the DH spot. Ortiz is a very one-dimensional player; all stick, no glove. And if he has no stick, then what's his value and function?
Lowell suffered a left knee contusion in today's game, the effects of which are unknown at present.
Perhaps of greater concern, he told reporters the other day that his right hip may never recover the mobility he'd been hoping for. He also recognizes that he may be best suited for a DH role in the AL.
While that doesn't exactly inspire hope that he'll ever be the stellar defensive player he once was, Lowell still believes he can hit and there's little reason to doubt him.
Despite his hip injury and subsequent surgery in 2008, Lowell has remained an offensive threat.
That year, Lowell was still a productive hitter, batting .274 with 17 homers, 73 RBI, and a .798 OPS. He followed that last season by batting .290 with 17 homers, 75 RBI, and an .811 OPS.
So while his eventual trade has been widely viewed as a foregone conclusion, given David Ortiz's continued struggles, that may not be the case after all.
Will The Red Sox Get Big Papi or Just David Ortiz?
Over the past couple of seasons, the rapid decline of David Ortiz has been somewhat spectacular.
Ortiz has not hit 30 or more home runs since 2007. His batting average dropped to .264 in 2008, and .238 last year. Meanwhile, his OBP dipped to an anemic .332 last season.
In 2006 and '07, Ortiz had more walks than strikeouts. But last season, Ortiz struck out 134 times and drew 74 walks. And in '08, Ortiz posted 74 strike outs 70 walks.
His current trend is a bad one. He has been going in the wrong direction for two straight years.
That's why there was so much interest in Ortiz going into spring training. If Ortiz swings a potent bat this season, the Red Sox offense will be all the better for it.
But there is reason for concern.
The Red Sox DH started miserably last year, and looked impotent for two solid months. At times Ortiz seemed to lack a pulse. But he still managed to finish the year with 28 homers and 99 RBI. While those are solid numbers for most hitters, they were tepid for the player who became a cult hero over his first five years in Boston.
Much to everyone's disappointment, Ortiz is hitting .214 since the start of spring training. Sadly, many of us are hardly surprised. The scary thought is that, at age 34, Ortiz may be washed up. He looks the same way he did for much of last year at the plate; lost.
Ortiz is fond of saying, "It's not how you start – it's how you finish."
But considering that this is his last year under contract in Boston, if he doesn't start strong, he may not finish the season in Boston.
Mike Lowell is still on the roster, and if he's healthy (a big "if" at this point), he could be seen as a better alternative in the DH spot. Ortiz is a very one-dimensional player; all stick, no glove. And if he has no stick, then what's his value and function?
Lowell suffered a left knee contusion in today's game, the effects of which are unknown at present.
Perhaps of greater concern, he told reporters the other day that his right hip may never recover the mobility he'd been hoping for. He also recognizes that he may be best suited for a DH role in the AL.
While that doesn't exactly inspire hope that he'll ever be the stellar defensive player he once was, Lowell still believes he can hit and there's little reason to doubt him.
Despite his hip injury and subsequent surgery in 2008, Lowell has remained an offensive threat.
That year, Lowell was still a productive hitter, batting .274 with 17 homers, 73 RBI, and a .798 OPS. He followed that last season by batting .290 with 17 homers, 75 RBI, and an .811 OPS.
So while his eventual trade has been widely viewed as a foregone conclusion, given David Ortiz's continued struggles, that may not be the case after all.
Ortiz has not hit 30 or more home runs since 2007. His batting average dropped to .264 in 2008, and .238 last year. Meanwhile, his OBP dipped to an anemic .332 last season.
In 2006 and '07, Ortiz had more walks than strikeouts. But last season, Ortiz struck out 134 times and drew 74 walks. And in '08, Ortiz posted 74 strike outs 70 walks.
His current trend is a bad one. He has been going in the wrong direction for two straight years.
That's why there was so much interest in Ortiz going into spring training. If Ortiz swings a potent bat this season, the Red Sox offense will be all the better for it.
But there is reason for concern.
The Red Sox DH started miserably last year, and looked impotent for two solid months. At times Ortiz seemed to lack a pulse. But he still managed to finish the year with 28 homers and 99 RBI. While those are solid numbers for most hitters, they were tepid for the player who became a cult hero over his first five years in Boston.
Much to everyone's disappointment, Ortiz is hitting .214 since the start of spring training. Sadly, many of us are hardly surprised. The scary thought is that, at age 34, Ortiz may be washed up. He looks the same way he did for much of last year at the plate; lost.
Ortiz is fond of saying, "It's not how you start – it's how you finish."
But considering that this is his last year under contract in Boston, if he doesn't start strong, he may not finish the season in Boston.
Mike Lowell is still on the roster, and if he's healthy (a big "if" at this point), he could be seen as a better alternative in the DH spot. Ortiz is a very one-dimensional player; all stick, no glove. And if he has no stick, then what's his value and function?
Lowell suffered a left knee contusion in today's game, the effects of which are unknown at present.
Perhaps of greater concern, he told reporters the other day that his right hip may never recover the mobility he'd been hoping for. He also recognizes that he may be best suited for a DH role in the AL.
While that doesn't exactly inspire hope that he'll ever be the stellar defensive player he once was, Lowell still believes he can hit and there's little reason to doubt him.
Despite his hip injury and subsequent surgery in 2008, Lowell has remained an offensive threat.
That year, Lowell was still a productive hitter, batting .274 with 17 homers, 73 RBI, and a .798 OPS. He followed that last season by batting .290 with 17 homers, 75 RBI, and an .811 OPS.
So while his eventual trade has been widely viewed as a foregone conclusion, given David Ortiz's continued struggles, that may not be the case after all.
Wednesday, March 10, 2010
Nomar Garciaparra Retires as a Red Sox
The shortstop established himself by winning Rookie of the Year in 1997. It was an eye-popping season in which he hit .306 with 122 runs, 44 doubles, 30 homers, 98 RBI, and 22 steals.
In the process, Garciaparra set new MLB records for RBI by a leadoff hitter and most homers by a rookie shortstop. In addition, his 30-game hitting streak also set an AL rookie record. To top it all off, he won the Silver Slugger Award that year.
The Red Sox, and the rest of baseball, knew there were great things to come from the burgeoning young star, and for the better part of the next six years he delivered.
Garciaparra won consecutive AL batting titles in 1999 (.357) and 2000 (.372), becoming just the fourth Red Sox player to accomplish this feat. He was also the first right-handed batter to win consecutive batting titles since Joe DiMaggio. His .372 average in 2000 is the fourth highest in club history.
But a wrist injury in spring training of 2001 ruined his season and was an omen of the injuries that would plague him for the rest of his career. Unknown at that time was that Garciaparra suffered from a degenerative disease that affected his tendons and made him more susceptible to injury.
However, Garciaparra bounced back strongly in the 2002 season, batting .310 with 24 homers and 120 RBI while leading the league with 56 doubles.
In 2003, Garciaparra was second in the Majors in triples (13), fifth in the AL in hits (198), and second in the AL in runs scored (120). Though his average dropped from previous highs, he still managed to hit .301.
Yet the shine was beginning to come off his star in Boston.
Following that season, the Red Sox tried to trade Manny Ramirez to Texas for Alex Rodriguez, who would have supplanted Garciaparra at short. Meanwhile, Garciaparra was to have been traded to the White Sox for Magglio Ordonez. But the Rodriguez trade was aborted due to protests from the players union over the restructuring of his contract.
From that point, the die was cast; Nomar's days in Boston were numbered.
From this vantage point, it's hard to believe that there was once a healthy debate over who was the better shortstop, Garciaparra, Rodriguez, or Derek Jeter. But from 1998-2000, Garciaparra had the highest career OPS of the three, and from 1997-2003, he ranked second in the AL with a .325 batting average.
The trade of Garciaparra at the deadline in 2004 is now the stuff of legend. Many believe that it was the impetus for the club's first World Series Championship in 86 years.
Once loved more than any other player by Red Sox Nation, Nomar was quickly forgotten.
But what can't be forgotten are Garciaparra's impressive stats as a member of the Red Sox.
During his nine seasons in Boston, Garciaparra compiled a .323 batting average, 178 homers, and 690 RBI in 966 games. He tallied 100 runs six times, 100 RBI four times, and 25 homers four times.
He is fourth in club history in career batting average (.323) and fifth in slugging (.553) among players with at least 1,500 at-bats.
Garciaparra also ranks among Boston’s top 15 in career doubles (ninth, 279), extra-base hits (ninth, 507), home runs (11th, 178), total bases (11th, 2,194), runs (12th, 709), and hits (14th, 1,281).
It also shouldn't be forgotten that he was voted onto five All-Star teams as a member of the Red Sox, and six in total.
Some accused Garciaparra of not being tough enough to play through his injuries during his time in Boston. But at the time, no one was aware of the disease that afflicted him.
As a member of the Cubs, Garciaparra tore the muscles in his groin while running to first during spring training in 2005. The injury effectively ruined his season. However, he rebounded strongly in 2006, winning the NL Comeback Player of the Year Award.
Allowing Nomar Garciaparra to sign a one-day minor league contract and retire as a member of the Red Sox was a very gracious gesture and the appropriate move by the organization. He is undoubtedly one of the greatest players in team history.
As Curt Schilling noted after the 2004 World Series victory, if not for Nomar, the Sox might not have been in a position to win at all.
Hopefully, that will never be forgotten—nor should Nomar's numerous illustrious achievements as a member of the Red Sox.
He is among the team's greats, and today was indeed a very fitting day.
Thursday, March 04, 2010
2010 Red Sox Rotation: New & Improved
There is a widespread consensus that the Red Sox starting rotation was significantly improved this winter. But while most of that improvement is attributed to the signing of John Lackey, there is more to it than just that.
Lackey will no doubt improve the Sox rotation. But in addition to adding the best free agent pitcher on the market, the Red Sox improved their rotation through subtraction.
The Red Sox gave 38 starts to three pitchers (Brad Penny, John Smoltz and Paul Byrd) who posted a cumulative 6.17 ERA last season, and who are no longer with the organization.
Last year, the Red Sox pitching staff often struggled after Josh Beckett and Jon Lester took their turns. The Sox received a quality start only 40 percent of the time last year when someone other than Lester or Beckett took the ball.
However, those struggles went beyond the shortcomings of Penny, Smoltz and Byrd.
Daisuke Matsuzaka was injured and ineffective most of the season, as was Tim Wakefield in the second half. But to the surprise of many, newcomers Penny and Smoltz didn't pan out nearly as well as projected.
In fact, there were 55 games last season in which Red Sox pitchers had a combined 6..28 ERA.
But this year, a healthy and in shape Daisuke Matsuzaka is returning. Dice-K's performance was awful in the eight games before going on the DL. However, in four games after returning, he threw six-plus innings per start and put up an ERA of 2.22.
The Red Sox need more of that pitcher, not the one who who's innings per start have been in steady decline. Dice-K's innings per start have dropped from 6.4 in 2007, to 5.8 in 2008, down to 4.9 last year.
Though Matsuzaka won 33 games over his first two seasons (the fourth most in baseball), of the 12 pitchers to win at least 30 games in that span, he ranked last in innings pitched.
With Clay Buchholz poised to join the rotation on a full-time basis, in addition to the 31-year-old Lackey, the Sox rotation will be a lot younger this season. Gone are the elder-statesmen Smotlz and Byrd, and Wakefield will likely have a diminished role.
Indeed, I do believe that Buchholz is a lock for one of the five rotation spots. Red Sox management believes that he is ready to finally break out, and that he can win as many as 12-15 games this year.
The fifth spot will come down to the health and effectiveness of Matsuzaka and Wakefield. Despite Matsuzka's recent back issues, being 14 years Wakefield's junior likely gives him the advantage.
The hope is that by getting younger the rotation will also be healthier and more effective this season. On Opening Day, Lackey will be 31, Beckett will be 30, Matsuzaka 29, Lester 26, and Buchholz 25. The seasoned veteran, Wakefield, will be 43.
The Sox rotation will be bolstered by three pitchers in the primes of their careers who have each won the deciding game of a World Series (Lackey, Becket and Lester). Each of them would be a viable no. 1 stater on almost any rotation.
However, nothing is guaranteed; the trio still has to go out and prove that they are the best front line in the Majors. If anyone gets injured, the team's high expectations could be dashed. After all, starting pitching should be one of the Red Sox' overwhelming strengths this year.
Lackey should certainly be an asset to the team's rotation; he has a career 3.81 ERA, all in the AL. And he can be innings eater, having reached 200 innings in four seasons, and 198 in another.
However, Lackey hasn't come close to 200 the last two seasons, missing a month-plus in each due to arm trouble. In 2008 he made just 24 starts, and last year he made 27.
As a result, Lackey has only thrown 163 1/3 and 176 1/3 innings the last two seasons. Depending on how you look at it, that's either a good or a bad thing.
After making just 51 starts over the last two years, some might take the view that Lackey's arm hasn't received as much wear as if he'd made the customary 30-plus starts each year. Perhaps his arm has been somewhat preserved, leaving him fresh this year and beyond.
The Red Sox obviously think so. They had better hope so.
After striking out 199 and 190 batters in consecutive seasons in 2005-06, Lackey's strikeout rate has dipped dramatically, down to 179, then 130, and 139 each of the last three seasons.
So, there is legitimate reason for concern. Lackey has pitched in – and won – some big games. But his resume does have holes.
The big Texan is 31 and has never won more than 19 games. Overall, he has won just 102 games in eight seasons – an average of 13 wins per year. And he has never struck out 200 batters in any season, though he did fan 199 in 2005.
The Red Sox invested a lot in John Lackey, and they have a lot riding on that investment. At the outset, given his age, experience and history, he seems a better bet for success than Brad Penny, John Smoltz or Paul Byrd ever did last year.
If healthy, the Red Sox' staff should be among the elite rotations in the Majors in 2010, and perhaps beyond.
Lackey will no doubt improve the Sox rotation. But in addition to adding the best free agent pitcher on the market, the Red Sox improved their rotation through subtraction.
The Red Sox gave 38 starts to three pitchers (Brad Penny, John Smoltz and Paul Byrd) who posted a cumulative 6.17 ERA last season, and who are no longer with the organization.
Last year, the Red Sox pitching staff often struggled after Josh Beckett and Jon Lester took their turns. The Sox received a quality start only 40 percent of the time last year when someone other than Lester or Beckett took the ball.
However, those struggles went beyond the shortcomings of Penny, Smoltz and Byrd.
Daisuke Matsuzaka was injured and ineffective most of the season, as was Tim Wakefield in the second half. But to the surprise of many, newcomers Penny and Smoltz didn't pan out nearly as well as projected.
In fact, there were 55 games last season in which Red Sox pitchers had a combined 6..28 ERA.
But this year, a healthy and in shape Daisuke Matsuzaka is returning. Dice-K's performance was awful in the eight games before going on the DL. However, in four games after returning, he threw six-plus innings per start and put up an ERA of 2.22.
The Red Sox need more of that pitcher, not the one who who's innings per start have been in steady decline. Dice-K's innings per start have dropped from 6.4 in 2007, to 5.8 in 2008, down to 4.9 last year.
Though Matsuzaka won 33 games over his first two seasons (the fourth most in baseball), of the 12 pitchers to win at least 30 games in that span, he ranked last in innings pitched.
With Clay Buchholz poised to join the rotation on a full-time basis, in addition to the 31-year-old Lackey, the Sox rotation will be a lot younger this season. Gone are the elder-statesmen Smotlz and Byrd, and Wakefield will likely have a diminished role.
Indeed, I do believe that Buchholz is a lock for one of the five rotation spots. Red Sox management believes that he is ready to finally break out, and that he can win as many as 12-15 games this year.
The fifth spot will come down to the health and effectiveness of Matsuzaka and Wakefield. Despite Matsuzka's recent back issues, being 14 years Wakefield's junior likely gives him the advantage.
The hope is that by getting younger the rotation will also be healthier and more effective this season. On Opening Day, Lackey will be 31, Beckett will be 30, Matsuzaka 29, Lester 26, and Buchholz 25. The seasoned veteran, Wakefield, will be 43.
The Sox rotation will be bolstered by three pitchers in the primes of their careers who have each won the deciding game of a World Series (Lackey, Becket and Lester). Each of them would be a viable no. 1 stater on almost any rotation.
However, nothing is guaranteed; the trio still has to go out and prove that they are the best front line in the Majors. If anyone gets injured, the team's high expectations could be dashed. After all, starting pitching should be one of the Red Sox' overwhelming strengths this year.
Lackey should certainly be an asset to the team's rotation; he has a career 3.81 ERA, all in the AL. And he can be innings eater, having reached 200 innings in four seasons, and 198 in another.
However, Lackey hasn't come close to 200 the last two seasons, missing a month-plus in each due to arm trouble. In 2008 he made just 24 starts, and last year he made 27.
As a result, Lackey has only thrown 163 1/3 and 176 1/3 innings the last two seasons. Depending on how you look at it, that's either a good or a bad thing.
After making just 51 starts over the last two years, some might take the view that Lackey's arm hasn't received as much wear as if he'd made the customary 30-plus starts each year. Perhaps his arm has been somewhat preserved, leaving him fresh this year and beyond.
The Red Sox obviously think so. They had better hope so.
After striking out 199 and 190 batters in consecutive seasons in 2005-06, Lackey's strikeout rate has dipped dramatically, down to 179, then 130, and 139 each of the last three seasons.
So, there is legitimate reason for concern. Lackey has pitched in – and won – some big games. But his resume does have holes.
The big Texan is 31 and has never won more than 19 games. Overall, he has won just 102 games in eight seasons – an average of 13 wins per year. And he has never struck out 200 batters in any season, though he did fan 199 in 2005.
The Red Sox invested a lot in John Lackey, and they have a lot riding on that investment. At the outset, given his age, experience and history, he seems a better bet for success than Brad Penny, John Smoltz or Paul Byrd ever did last year.
If healthy, the Red Sox' staff should be among the elite rotations in the Majors in 2010, and perhaps beyond.
Wednesday, February 17, 2010
2010 Red Sox Will Look Like A Very Different Team
The Red Sox open Spring Training for the 2010 season this week. It will be a welcome moment for the millions of Red Sox fans just jonesing for baseball since the 2009 season ended so abruptly.
The boys from Boston will look like a very different team on Opening Day; five of the nine roster positions will have different players from the last Opening Day.
This winter, the Sox picked up Jeremy Hermida, Marco Scuatro, John Lackey, Mike Cameron, Adrian Beltre and Bill Hall, in succession. That's quite a bit of change.
Nick Green, Alex Gonzalez, Jason Bay, and Rocco Baldelli are all gone, not to mention Javier Lopez, Takashi Saito, and Billy Wagner. Perhaps even Mike Lowell will join their ranks.
Defensively, at least, the Sox will be significantly improved. The pitchers will feel very confident with four Gold Glove-caliber players patrolling the infield, and the outfield should be outstanding as well. As always, JD Drew just has to stay healthy. The Red Sox would love to get at least 140 games out of him, but it's hard to expect.
On the whole the Sox got more athletic. Hermida should give them more offense than Baldelli. And Cameron, Beltre, and Scutaro should at least be a wash in replacing the offense of Bay, Lowell and Gonzalez/Green.
It will be really interesting to see how Lowell looks in spring training. Just imagine if he gets off to a hot start and David Ortiz looks anemic again. Lowell is a far more versatile player. If Papi isn't tearing the cover off the ball, he's just dead weight. In that scenario, Lowell would be a better DH / reserve third baseman.
The bat the team hoped to acquire this offseason may be Victor Martinez, who only played two months with the Sox last year. Taking Jason Varitek out of the every day lineup will pay dividends. Offensively at least, that will result in a significant upgrade at the position.
Speaking of offense, I have to believe that Scutaro will be an upgrade over Gonzalez,. We can only hope that last year wasn't a freak season and that Scutaro doesn't decline. The good news is that he excelled in the AL East. Defensively, he's said to be every bit as good as Gonzo.
The Sox finished 28th among the Major Leagues’ 30 teams in defensive efficiency in 2009. That simply had to be addressed, and the team did so.
I suspect that Beltre is a former PED user. His 2004 output was totally out of character from any period before, or since. But he doesn't have to perform like that again to be a success in Boston. He's still only 31, and if he can give the Sox 25 homers, they'll be thrilled. Playing half the season in Fenway, instead of Safeco Field, should do wonders for his offense.
I must say that I'm really eager to watch this Red Sox team. The Yankees, as always, will be tough to beat; injuries could decide the division. With such tight competition, it's critical to be healthy down the stretch, and in October.
But not re-signing Johnny Damon may be a decision the Yankees come to regret. They won't be as good without him this season. Curtis Granderson and Randy Winn won't make up for the losses of Hideki Matsui and Damon.
Now if only Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera will start acting their age.
The X-Factor for the Red Sox may turn out to be Jonathan Papelbon. The last time we saw him, he was uncharacteristically melting down at Fenway in Game 3 of the ALDS. To that point, Papelbon had been nearly perfect in postseason play: 17 appearances and 26 scoreless innings.
In 2007-08, Papelbon walked a total of 23 batters; in 2009, he walked 24. Obviously, something was amiss with his control.
Papelbon now realizes that he became far too reliant on his fastball last year, at the expense of his once-trusted splitter. The closer admits that he was overthrowing late last season, including the playoffs. He'll need to regain that pitch to re-establish his dominance.
Last year, Papelbon's ERA dropped to 1.85, from 2.35 in 2008. That matched the 1.85 ERA he posted in the Red Sox championship season of 2007. And he converted 38 of 41 save opportunities last season, better than the 41 of 46 in 2008.
The Sox closer will be just 29 this season, and in the prime of his career. He is eager to put last October's meltdown behind him.
One thing's for certain; he and the other Red Sox pitchers should be well-served by the defense behind them this year.
There are some concerns about the offense, but for what it's worth, Baseball Prospectus projects the Red Sox scoring in excess of 800 runs this season, and finishing atop the AL East.
Now the Sox just need to go out and a prove them right.
The boys from Boston will look like a very different team on Opening Day; five of the nine roster positions will have different players from the last Opening Day.
This winter, the Sox picked up Jeremy Hermida, Marco Scuatro, John Lackey, Mike Cameron, Adrian Beltre and Bill Hall, in succession. That's quite a bit of change.
Nick Green, Alex Gonzalez, Jason Bay, and Rocco Baldelli are all gone, not to mention Javier Lopez, Takashi Saito, and Billy Wagner. Perhaps even Mike Lowell will join their ranks.
Defensively, at least, the Sox will be significantly improved. The pitchers will feel very confident with four Gold Glove-caliber players patrolling the infield, and the outfield should be outstanding as well. As always, JD Drew just has to stay healthy. The Red Sox would love to get at least 140 games out of him, but it's hard to expect.
On the whole the Sox got more athletic. Hermida should give them more offense than Baldelli. And Cameron, Beltre, and Scutaro should at least be a wash in replacing the offense of Bay, Lowell and Gonzalez/Green.
It will be really interesting to see how Lowell looks in spring training. Just imagine if he gets off to a hot start and David Ortiz looks anemic again. Lowell is a far more versatile player. If Papi isn't tearing the cover off the ball, he's just dead weight. In that scenario, Lowell would be a better DH / reserve third baseman.
The bat the team hoped to acquire this offseason may be Victor Martinez, who only played two months with the Sox last year. Taking Jason Varitek out of the every day lineup will pay dividends. Offensively at least, that will result in a significant upgrade at the position.
Speaking of offense, I have to believe that Scutaro will be an upgrade over Gonzalez,. We can only hope that last year wasn't a freak season and that Scutaro doesn't decline. The good news is that he excelled in the AL East. Defensively, he's said to be every bit as good as Gonzo.
The Sox finished 28th among the Major Leagues’ 30 teams in defensive efficiency in 2009. That simply had to be addressed, and the team did so.
I suspect that Beltre is a former PED user. His 2004 output was totally out of character from any period before, or since. But he doesn't have to perform like that again to be a success in Boston. He's still only 31, and if he can give the Sox 25 homers, they'll be thrilled. Playing half the season in Fenway, instead of Safeco Field, should do wonders for his offense.
I must say that I'm really eager to watch this Red Sox team. The Yankees, as always, will be tough to beat; injuries could decide the division. With such tight competition, it's critical to be healthy down the stretch, and in October.
But not re-signing Johnny Damon may be a decision the Yankees come to regret. They won't be as good without him this season. Curtis Granderson and Randy Winn won't make up for the losses of Hideki Matsui and Damon.
Now if only Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera will start acting their age.
The X-Factor for the Red Sox may turn out to be Jonathan Papelbon. The last time we saw him, he was uncharacteristically melting down at Fenway in Game 3 of the ALDS. To that point, Papelbon had been nearly perfect in postseason play: 17 appearances and 26 scoreless innings.
In 2007-08, Papelbon walked a total of 23 batters; in 2009, he walked 24. Obviously, something was amiss with his control.
Papelbon now realizes that he became far too reliant on his fastball last year, at the expense of his once-trusted splitter. The closer admits that he was overthrowing late last season, including the playoffs. He'll need to regain that pitch to re-establish his dominance.
Last year, Papelbon's ERA dropped to 1.85, from 2.35 in 2008. That matched the 1.85 ERA he posted in the Red Sox championship season of 2007. And he converted 38 of 41 save opportunities last season, better than the 41 of 46 in 2008.
The Sox closer will be just 29 this season, and in the prime of his career. He is eager to put last October's meltdown behind him.
One thing's for certain; he and the other Red Sox pitchers should be well-served by the defense behind them this year.
There are some concerns about the offense, but for what it's worth, Baseball Prospectus projects the Red Sox scoring in excess of 800 runs this season, and finishing atop the AL East.
Now the Sox just need to go out and a prove them right.
Wednesday, January 20, 2010
MLB's Money Problem Is A Revenue Sharing Problem
Baseball commissioner Bud Selig says some Major League Baseball teams lost money in 2009, though he has declined to name which teams.
"We don't live in a bubble. And so, I think the clubs in some areas have been hit a lot harder than others," said Selig.
Total attendance was 73.4 million last year, MLB's fifth-highest ever. However, Major League attendance was down seven percent collectively.
MLB's attendance dropped from an average of 32,528 per game in 2008 to an average of 30,350 in 2009.
Like the rest of Detroit, the Tigers are facing financial difficulty. They had one of baseball's biggest attendance drops last season, from a franchise-record 3.2 million in 2008 to fewer than 2.6 million in '09. That amounted to a 20 percent decline.
But the Tigers downturn wasn't even the worst in baseball.
The Mets had the biggest dropoff in attendance from 2008, at 24 percent. The Nationals were down 22 percent, and the Padres declined 22 percent.
While some teams are struggling, others are living quite nicely off of MLB's revenue sharing agreement.
About $400 million — or 34 percent of each team's net local revenue — was distributed to small market teams last year. Most of that percentage came from the Yankees, Red Sox, Mets, and other high-revenue teams.
However, the Marlins, Royals, and Pirates are taking in more in revenue-sharing than they are spending on MLB player payroll, and showing a profit.
That has gotten the attention of MLB Players Association executive director Michael Weiner.
"We're concerned when we have clubs that are not using the receipts for the purpose to which they were intended under our contract. It's the players' job to enforce that provision,” said Weiner last month.
According to Forbes Magazine's annual team valuations (specifically based on Operating Income, a measure of profitability), the clubs with the lowest player payrolls, who receive the lion’s share of revenue-sharing, are some the league’s most profitable.
The players' union has expressed concerns that revenue sharing proceeds have not been used as required by some teams.
For instance, the Marlins' team payroll has been so small as to violate Major League Baseball's revenue sharing provisions. The Marlins, plagued by poor attendance, have had the lowest payroll in MLB in three of the past four seasons.
Under pressure, last week the Marlins reached an agreement with the players' union to increase spending by an unspecified amount.
MLB's basic agreement calls for each club to use its revenue sharing receipts in an effort to improve the team. But that's clearly not happening. Some clubs (such as the Pirates) are paying down stadium debt, which seems in violation of the agreement.
Perhaps it is financial concerns that has resulted in the large number of still unsigned free agents, many of whom have fine pedigrees.
As of Sunday, the following free agents were all still available:
1B: Russell Branyan, Carlos Delgado
2B: Orlando Hudson, Felipe Lopez
SS: Orlando Cabrera, Miguel Tejada
3B: Joe Crede, Melvin Mora
DH: Jim Thome, Jason Giambi
OF: Rick Ankiel, Reed Johnson
OF: Johnny Damon, Xavier Nady
OF: Jermaine Dye, Gary Sheffield
C: Bengie Molina, Jose Molina
SP: Joel Piniero, Vicente Padilla
SP: Jon Garland, Pedro Martinez
SP: Ben Sheets, Braden Looper
SP: Chien-Ming Wang, Mark Mulder
SP: Erik Bedard, Jarrod Washburn
RP: Kiko Calero, Chan Ho Park,
RP: Ron Villone, Kevin Gregg
RP: David Weathers, Jamey Wright
It's an interesting list, and indicates that there is still value to be had, even for lower payroll teams.
As it stands, they are being subsidized by the big market clubs anyway. There is no excuse for them not to spend.
"We don't live in a bubble. And so, I think the clubs in some areas have been hit a lot harder than others," said Selig.
Total attendance was 73.4 million last year, MLB's fifth-highest ever. However, Major League attendance was down seven percent collectively.
MLB's attendance dropped from an average of 32,528 per game in 2008 to an average of 30,350 in 2009.
Like the rest of Detroit, the Tigers are facing financial difficulty. They had one of baseball's biggest attendance drops last season, from a franchise-record 3.2 million in 2008 to fewer than 2.6 million in '09. That amounted to a 20 percent decline.
But the Tigers downturn wasn't even the worst in baseball.
The Mets had the biggest dropoff in attendance from 2008, at 24 percent. The Nationals were down 22 percent, and the Padres declined 22 percent.
While some teams are struggling, others are living quite nicely off of MLB's revenue sharing agreement.
About $400 million — or 34 percent of each team's net local revenue — was distributed to small market teams last year. Most of that percentage came from the Yankees, Red Sox, Mets, and other high-revenue teams.
However, the Marlins, Royals, and Pirates are taking in more in revenue-sharing than they are spending on MLB player payroll, and showing a profit.
That has gotten the attention of MLB Players Association executive director Michael Weiner.
"We're concerned when we have clubs that are not using the receipts for the purpose to which they were intended under our contract. It's the players' job to enforce that provision,” said Weiner last month.
According to Forbes Magazine's annual team valuations (specifically based on Operating Income, a measure of profitability), the clubs with the lowest player payrolls, who receive the lion’s share of revenue-sharing, are some the league’s most profitable.
The players' union has expressed concerns that revenue sharing proceeds have not been used as required by some teams.
For instance, the Marlins' team payroll has been so small as to violate Major League Baseball's revenue sharing provisions. The Marlins, plagued by poor attendance, have had the lowest payroll in MLB in three of the past four seasons.
Under pressure, last week the Marlins reached an agreement with the players' union to increase spending by an unspecified amount.
MLB's basic agreement calls for each club to use its revenue sharing receipts in an effort to improve the team. But that's clearly not happening. Some clubs (such as the Pirates) are paying down stadium debt, which seems in violation of the agreement.
Perhaps it is financial concerns that has resulted in the large number of still unsigned free agents, many of whom have fine pedigrees.
As of Sunday, the following free agents were all still available:
1B: Russell Branyan, Carlos Delgado
2B: Orlando Hudson, Felipe Lopez
SS: Orlando Cabrera, Miguel Tejada
3B: Joe Crede, Melvin Mora
DH: Jim Thome, Jason Giambi
OF: Rick Ankiel, Reed Johnson
OF: Johnny Damon, Xavier Nady
OF: Jermaine Dye, Gary Sheffield
C: Bengie Molina, Jose Molina
SP: Joel Piniero, Vicente Padilla
SP: Jon Garland, Pedro Martinez
SP: Ben Sheets, Braden Looper
SP: Chien-Ming Wang, Mark Mulder
SP: Erik Bedard, Jarrod Washburn
RP: Kiko Calero, Chan Ho Park,
RP: Ron Villone, Kevin Gregg
RP: David Weathers, Jamey Wright
It's an interesting list, and indicates that there is still value to be had, even for lower payroll teams.
As it stands, they are being subsidized by the big market clubs anyway. There is no excuse for them not to spend.
Thursday, January 07, 2010
Red Sox Roster Mostly Set with Latest Moves
Getting Adrian Beltre for a guarantee of just one year and $10 million has to be viewed as a steal for the Red Sox. It's a huge come-down from Scott Boras's early demands of four years and $40 million, or more.
Beltre earned $12 million last season and would have received a bump up in arbitration, which he declined. Perhaps he was just desperate to get out of the expansive Safeco Field.
The Red Sox obviously feel Beltre's surgically repaired shoulder is fully healed, that he can still play stellar defense, and that Fenway will revitalize his offense—which slumped markedly last season.
Beltre is a free swinger who doesn't see very many pitches per at-bat (3.56/AB last season; 3.70 over the previous four seasons). He also has an atrocious .325 carer OBP. However, he does possess a .270 career batting average.
And Beltre averaged 25 homers and a .793 OPS for the Mariners from 2006 to ’08 despite playing at Safeco Field, a power sapper for right-handed hitters. For comparison's sake, Mike Lowell has produced an impressive .829 OPS over four seasons in Boston. During that period, Lowell has averaged 19 homers and 87 RBI.
Beltre was like two different players, depending on whether he was hitting at Safeco or on the road.
Over his five-year career with the Mariners (2005-2009), Beltre played 353 games at Safeco, where he hit .254, with 116 extra-base hits and 174 RBI. In that span, Beltre also played 362 road games, in which he batted .277, with 167 extras-base hits and 222 RBI.
The left field foul pole at Safeco is 331 feet from home plate, and the left field power alley is 390 feet away. For comparison's sake, Fenway Park measures 310 feet down the left field line, and 379 feet in left center.
As a Mariner, Beltre posted a .277 batting average and .813 OPS away from the canyon-like Safeco. Quite similarly, Lowell’s career averages are .280 and .810, respectively. But Beltre is five years younger than Lowell, with better range and speed.
Fenway should be kinder to Beltre. While that remains to be seen, over the course of his 12-year career, he has proven himself as a power-hitter and a run producer.
During the five-year period that Beltre played with Seattle, the only third baseman in the AL to finish with more homers and RBI was Alex Rodriguez.
But to look solely at Beltre's offensive numbers is to miss the point. The Red Sox are aiming to put a premier defense on the field this season and Beltre, a top-notch defender, is part of that strategy.
Widely considered one of the two or three best defensive third basemen in the game today, the Dominican native won back-to-back Gold Gloves in 2007 and 2008.
Last season Beltre posted a .959 fielding percentage, making 14 errors over his 110 starts.
Some fans got caught up in his eye-popping 2004 season with the Dodgers, when he belted 48 homers, drove in 121 runs, and batted .334. But Beltre had never before, and has never since, had a season remotely resembling that one. If he bounces back to hit 25 homers and plays exceptional defense, as he has in the past, the Red Sox will be thrilled.
The crazy thing is that the Red Sox could end up paying $20 million or more in 2010 for Beltre and Lowell, as well as $14 million for shortstops Julio Lugo and Marco Scutaro. That's a lot of money, especially considering that one player, and perhaps two, will be playing for another team in 2010.
Casey Kotchman's tenure as the starting first baseman was awfully brief. The Red Sox essentially exchanged Kotchman for Beltre, and the move should benefit them this season.
However, the Sox now have a trio third basemen on their roster (Beltre, Lowell, and Bill Hall). That would appear to make them desperate to move Lowell. But that could change.
David Ortiz is a very one-dimensional player; all stick, no glove. And he has been fading offensively for two consecutive seasons. Last year, he hit a paltry .238, which followed a 2008 season in which he hit .264. That's a dramatic decline for a guy who had been a .302 hitter over his first five seasons in Boston. The point is, Ortiz was more than just a power hitter, he was a very good all around hitter.
Those days may be long since over. Ortiz had a horrible first two months of the 2009 season, and another slump when his steroids scandal broke. Say what what you will about distractions, but all the hoopla never hurt Barry Bonds.
Both Lowell and Ortiz are under contract for roughly the same $12 million this season. If Lowell is hot at the plate in spring training, and Ortiz looks similarly old with diminished bat speed, Ortiz could be the one on the block.
If Lowell is healthy, he is far more versatile. If he shows that he can handle first base in Fort Meyers, that would give him a considerable advantage over Ortiz to remain with the club for the duration of 2010. That said, I did use the word "if" three times in that scenario.
Trading for Bill Hall is confounding; the Sox' bench was already too deep with Kotchman, Lowell, Lowrie, Varitek and Hermida. With five players on the bench, they couldn't carry their customary 12-man pitching staff. So someone had to go.
But replacing Kotchman with Hall doesn't solve that problem. And Hall has played 805 career games, meaning he is long since out of options and can't be sent to Pawtucket.
What this tells us is that Jed Lowrie will start his season at Triple A and may remain there unless his wrist is fully recovered, allowing his offense to bloom once again..
That aside, Hall is a career .251 hitter, with a .309 OBP. Apart from being abysmal, those stats fly in the face of the Sox' organizational philosophy. Additionally, Hall's career fielding percentage is .962, and .838 as a third baseman. That's just horrible.
However, Hall is a utility player with Major League experience in left field, right field, second base and shortstop.
He had a freak year in 2006 when he hit 35 homers, which was twice his output in any year before or since.
Hall is 30 years old and is a fully developed player. I just don't get it. The best you can say is that he is a more versatile player in the field than Kotchman.
The two newest additions seem to mostly set the Red Sox roster, depending on what becomes of Lowell, or possibly Ortiz.
The team's pitching and defense were clearly improved this offseason, and the offense should still be good enough to compete in the AL East and get them into the playoffs.
And once in the playoffs, pitching and defense reign supreme.
That's just what the Red Sox are counting on.
Beltre earned $12 million last season and would have received a bump up in arbitration, which he declined. Perhaps he was just desperate to get out of the expansive Safeco Field.
The Red Sox obviously feel Beltre's surgically repaired shoulder is fully healed, that he can still play stellar defense, and that Fenway will revitalize his offense—which slumped markedly last season.
Beltre is a free swinger who doesn't see very many pitches per at-bat (3.56/AB last season; 3.70 over the previous four seasons). He also has an atrocious .325 carer OBP. However, he does possess a .270 career batting average.
And Beltre averaged 25 homers and a .793 OPS for the Mariners from 2006 to ’08 despite playing at Safeco Field, a power sapper for right-handed hitters. For comparison's sake, Mike Lowell has produced an impressive .829 OPS over four seasons in Boston. During that period, Lowell has averaged 19 homers and 87 RBI.
Beltre was like two different players, depending on whether he was hitting at Safeco or on the road.
Over his five-year career with the Mariners (2005-2009), Beltre played 353 games at Safeco, where he hit .254, with 116 extra-base hits and 174 RBI. In that span, Beltre also played 362 road games, in which he batted .277, with 167 extras-base hits and 222 RBI.
The left field foul pole at Safeco is 331 feet from home plate, and the left field power alley is 390 feet away. For comparison's sake, Fenway Park measures 310 feet down the left field line, and 379 feet in left center.
As a Mariner, Beltre posted a .277 batting average and .813 OPS away from the canyon-like Safeco. Quite similarly, Lowell’s career averages are .280 and .810, respectively. But Beltre is five years younger than Lowell, with better range and speed.
Fenway should be kinder to Beltre. While that remains to be seen, over the course of his 12-year career, he has proven himself as a power-hitter and a run producer.
During the five-year period that Beltre played with Seattle, the only third baseman in the AL to finish with more homers and RBI was Alex Rodriguez.
But to look solely at Beltre's offensive numbers is to miss the point. The Red Sox are aiming to put a premier defense on the field this season and Beltre, a top-notch defender, is part of that strategy.
Widely considered one of the two or three best defensive third basemen in the game today, the Dominican native won back-to-back Gold Gloves in 2007 and 2008.
Last season Beltre posted a .959 fielding percentage, making 14 errors over his 110 starts.
Some fans got caught up in his eye-popping 2004 season with the Dodgers, when he belted 48 homers, drove in 121 runs, and batted .334. But Beltre had never before, and has never since, had a season remotely resembling that one. If he bounces back to hit 25 homers and plays exceptional defense, as he has in the past, the Red Sox will be thrilled.
The crazy thing is that the Red Sox could end up paying $20 million or more in 2010 for Beltre and Lowell, as well as $14 million for shortstops Julio Lugo and Marco Scutaro. That's a lot of money, especially considering that one player, and perhaps two, will be playing for another team in 2010.
Casey Kotchman's tenure as the starting first baseman was awfully brief. The Red Sox essentially exchanged Kotchman for Beltre, and the move should benefit them this season.
However, the Sox now have a trio third basemen on their roster (Beltre, Lowell, and Bill Hall). That would appear to make them desperate to move Lowell. But that could change.
David Ortiz is a very one-dimensional player; all stick, no glove. And he has been fading offensively for two consecutive seasons. Last year, he hit a paltry .238, which followed a 2008 season in which he hit .264. That's a dramatic decline for a guy who had been a .302 hitter over his first five seasons in Boston. The point is, Ortiz was more than just a power hitter, he was a very good all around hitter.
Those days may be long since over. Ortiz had a horrible first two months of the 2009 season, and another slump when his steroids scandal broke. Say what what you will about distractions, but all the hoopla never hurt Barry Bonds.
Both Lowell and Ortiz are under contract for roughly the same $12 million this season. If Lowell is hot at the plate in spring training, and Ortiz looks similarly old with diminished bat speed, Ortiz could be the one on the block.
If Lowell is healthy, he is far more versatile. If he shows that he can handle first base in Fort Meyers, that would give him a considerable advantage over Ortiz to remain with the club for the duration of 2010. That said, I did use the word "if" three times in that scenario.
Trading for Bill Hall is confounding; the Sox' bench was already too deep with Kotchman, Lowell, Lowrie, Varitek and Hermida. With five players on the bench, they couldn't carry their customary 12-man pitching staff. So someone had to go.
But replacing Kotchman with Hall doesn't solve that problem. And Hall has played 805 career games, meaning he is long since out of options and can't be sent to Pawtucket.
What this tells us is that Jed Lowrie will start his season at Triple A and may remain there unless his wrist is fully recovered, allowing his offense to bloom once again..
That aside, Hall is a career .251 hitter, with a .309 OBP. Apart from being abysmal, those stats fly in the face of the Sox' organizational philosophy. Additionally, Hall's career fielding percentage is .962, and .838 as a third baseman. That's just horrible.
However, Hall is a utility player with Major League experience in left field, right field, second base and shortstop.
He had a freak year in 2006 when he hit 35 homers, which was twice his output in any year before or since.
Hall is 30 years old and is a fully developed player. I just don't get it. The best you can say is that he is a more versatile player in the field than Kotchman.
The two newest additions seem to mostly set the Red Sox roster, depending on what becomes of Lowell, or possibly Ortiz.
The team's pitching and defense were clearly improved this offseason, and the offense should still be good enough to compete in the AL East and get them into the playoffs.
And once in the playoffs, pitching and defense reign supreme.
That's just what the Red Sox are counting on.
Upcoming Events on Red Sox and MLB Calendar
Jan 5-15 — Salary arbitration filing period
Jan. 13-14 — Owners meetings, Scottsdale, Ariz.
Jan. 19 — Exchange of salary arbitration figures
Feb. 1-21 — Salary arbitration hearings period, St. Petersburg, Fla.
Feb. 12 — Truck Day: Red Sox equipment truck will leave Fenway Park for arrival in Fort Myers, Fla.
Feb. 18 — Spring training: Reporting day for Red Sox pitchers and catchers; MLB voluntary reporting date for pitchers, catchers and injured players
Feb. 20 — Spring training: First workout for Red Sox pitchers and catchers
Feb. 22 — Spring training: Reporting day for Red Sox positional players
Feb. 23 — Spring training: MLB voluntary reporting date for other players
Feb. 24 — Spring training: First Red Sox full-squad workout
March 2 — Spring training: Mandatory reporting date for players
March 2-11 — Teams may renew contracts of unsigned players
March 3 — First Red Sox spring training game vs. Northeastern
March 17 — Last day to place a player on unconditional release waivers and pay 30 days termination pay instead of 45 days
March 31 — Last day to request unconditional release waivers on a player without having to pay his full 2010 salary
April 3 — Last Red Sox spring training game vs. Nationals (Nationals Park)
April 4 — MLB Opening Night: Red Sox vs. Yankees at Fenway Park; active rosters reduced to 25 players
Jan. 13-14 — Owners meetings, Scottsdale, Ariz.
Jan. 19 — Exchange of salary arbitration figures
Feb. 1-21 — Salary arbitration hearings period, St. Petersburg, Fla.
Feb. 12 — Truck Day: Red Sox equipment truck will leave Fenway Park for arrival in Fort Myers, Fla.
Feb. 18 — Spring training: Reporting day for Red Sox pitchers and catchers; MLB voluntary reporting date for pitchers, catchers and injured players
Feb. 20 — Spring training: First workout for Red Sox pitchers and catchers
Feb. 22 — Spring training: Reporting day for Red Sox positional players
Feb. 23 — Spring training: MLB voluntary reporting date for other players
Feb. 24 — Spring training: First Red Sox full-squad workout
March 2 — Spring training: Mandatory reporting date for players
March 2-11 — Teams may renew contracts of unsigned players
March 3 — First Red Sox spring training game vs. Northeastern
March 17 — Last day to place a player on unconditional release waivers and pay 30 days termination pay instead of 45 days
March 31 — Last day to request unconditional release waivers on a player without having to pay his full 2010 salary
April 3 — Last Red Sox spring training game vs. Nationals (Nationals Park)
April 4 — MLB Opening Night: Red Sox vs. Yankees at Fenway Park; active rosters reduced to 25 players
Sunday, January 03, 2010
Mike Lowell Has Come Full Circle With Red Sox
By now, Mike Lowell's 2005 acquisition by the Red Sox has become a sort of local folklore.
Lowell was supposed to be the "dead weight" the Florida Marlins dumped on the Red Sox in November 2005 in order to procure Josh Beckett. Lowell was under contract for $9 million in each of the next two seasons and was coming off a career-worst season.
For the promise that Becket provided, the Sox parted ways with their No. 1 prospect, Hanley Ramirez, and assumed Lowell's weighty contract, hoping he would return to form at Fenway.
That bet worked out well for both the Red Sox and Lowell, who turned out to be much more than just dead weight or a contract dump.
In 2006, his first year with the Sox, Lowell played in 153 games and rebounded soundly, batting .284 with 20 homers, 80 RBI, and an .814 OPS.
He followed that with an outstanding 2007 season, in which he had career highs in batting average (.324) and RBIs (120) to go with 21 home runs and an .879 OPS in 154 games. Lowell's RBI total set a Red Sox record for third basemen.
The surging Lowell ended his outstanding season with a torrid October. In Boston's four-game World Series sweep of Colorado, Lowell hit .400 (6-for-15) with four RBI, three walks, and a team-high six runs. He homered, doubled, and scored twice in the Game Four clincher at Denver's Coors Field, en route to winning the World Series MVP.
During the Red Sox's subsequent victory parade around Boston, fans held signs aloft and loudly voiced their demands that the club re-sign the third baseman. Lowell had endeared himself to Red Sox Nation.
However, his stellar performance had also gotten the attention of other clubs. The Yankees reportedly offered Lowell a four-year deal worth $50-$55 million to play first base.
The four-time All Star also turned down a four-year contract from the Phillies (reportedly in the vicinity of $50 million) in favor of a three-year, $37.5 million deal to stay in Boston.
Lowell made his decision based on the facts that he liked the city, the organization, his teammates, his manager, and the fans.
However, he has probably regretted that decision ever since.
The Red Sox have tried, or at least discussed, trading Lowell a minimum of three times in the intervening period.
First, the Red Sox had discussions with the Rockies on a Lowell-for-Todd Helton deal after the 2007 season. Then the Sox made an aggressive attempt to sign Mark Teixeira after the 2008 season, which would have left Lowell as the odd man out. And this offseason, they once again tried dealing Lowell to Texas for minor league catcher Max Ramirez.
Taken as a whole, all of this would make any player feel unwanted. Yet, Lowell has taken the high road and maintained the dignified demeanor that has defined his career. He is nothing if not a class act.
However, despite his hip injury and subsequent surgery in 2008, Lowell has still remained an offensive threat.
That year, Lowell was still a productive hitter, batting .274 with 17 homers, 73 RBI, and a .798 OPS. He followed that up last season by batting .290 with 17 homers, 75 RBI, and an .811 OPS.
But the problem was that Lowell played in just 113 games in 2008, followed by 119 in 2009.
However, in Lowell's view, he could have played more last season. "I feel like I could have played in another 15 to 20 games,'' he said recently.
Apparently the Red Sox saw things differently—and still do.
Lowell will be 36 next month, and the club is concerned that the combination of age and a surgically repaired hip (which may have become arthritic) have permanently affected his range and mobility.
Doctors told Lowell that his hip would not fully recover for a year. Yet, he still played 119 games last season, which may have slowed his healing and recovery to some degree.
In the past two years, prominent players such as Alex Rodriguez, Chase Utley, Carlos Delgado, and Alex Gordon have also undergone hip labrum surgery. But, with the exception of the 37-year-old Delgado, all were younger than Lowell. That likely aided their successful recoveries.
Lowell has dedicated himself to an offseason training regimen geared toward strengthening his hip and improving joint mobility. He says the hip feels better now than at any point last season and is confident in a full recovery. The Red Sox seem less optimistic.
Despite the fact that a lingering right thumb injury blew up a proposed trade to the Rangers, the resulting surgery was described as rather mundane and shouldn't limit Lowell at all. A full recovery is projected. The prescribed rehabilitation period is six to eight weeks and would put Lowell on schedule to start spring training with his teammates next month.
The potential deterioration of his right hip is a much larger matter.
Lowell will have to prove to the Red Sox, and any potential trade partners, that he is fully recovered and can be more than just a DH. But even then, he still has to be able to run the bases effectively.
The Puerto Rican native is a consummate professional. He understands the burden is on him to prove that he is ready and still capable. Lowell still sees himself as an everyday player and wants his name written into the daily lineup card.
That's why the implosion of the deal with Texas affected Lowell as much as the Red Sox. He is entering another contract year and wants to prove himself worthy of one more contract. That aside, he's a gamer who wants to be on the field for at least 150 games per season.
With the Red Sox, he knows he won't get that chance in 2010.
When his playing time was cut down following the acquisition of Victor Martinez at the trade deadline last season, Lowell was not happy. And he will not be happy playing behind Kevin Youkilis, or anyone else, this season.
Yet, he hasn't let the trade talk affect his public demeanor, noting, "I can honestly say I haven't lost a single minute of sleep because of [those reports]."
Perhaps that's because he's guaranteed to be paid $12 million this year, whether he plays or not. But still, the relationship between Lowell and the Red Sox may be irreparably damaged.
Since the Red Sox are reportedly unwilling to consider him as a starter this season, they are still intent on dealing him. And all potential trade partners already know that the Sox are willing to eat 75 percent of his salary. That's not a position of strength for the Red Sox.
“I understand the business. I have no problem in them shopping me around," the classy Lowell said recently.
That's a very professional attitude, and one that we've come to expect from Lowell over his four years in Boston.
The fact that defense has become an issue for Lowell is quite an irony; despite his physical limitations in each of the last two seasons, he still holds the all-time highest fielding percentage for a third baseman.
Yes, as incredible as it may sound, in 1,470 games at third base, Lowell's .976 fielding percentage is good enough for No. 1 all-time , ahead of Brooks Robinson, according to Baseball-Almanac.com.
Lowell also holds the National League record for fewest errors in a season , set in 2004, when he made just seven miscues in 396 total chances. He won the NL Gold Glove the following season when he committed just six errors in 356 chances.
But as far as the Red Sox are concerned, that was then, this is now.
Though Lowell remains a persistent offensive threat, the club will continue to explore all trade avenues through spring training—whatever the cost.
That will result in a disappointing end to the tenure of one of the better third basemen in Red Sox history, and one of the highest-character players to have ever worn the Red Sox uniform.
During his time in Boston, Lowell proved himself to be more than just dead weight. Yet, that is how he is perceived by the organization at this point.
We can't forget that Lowell has already beaten cancer, and we shouldn't discount the possibility that he has yet another bounce-back season left in him.
I, for one, hope so—wherever he plays.
Lowell was supposed to be the "dead weight" the Florida Marlins dumped on the Red Sox in November 2005 in order to procure Josh Beckett. Lowell was under contract for $9 million in each of the next two seasons and was coming off a career-worst season.
For the promise that Becket provided, the Sox parted ways with their No. 1 prospect, Hanley Ramirez, and assumed Lowell's weighty contract, hoping he would return to form at Fenway.
That bet worked out well for both the Red Sox and Lowell, who turned out to be much more than just dead weight or a contract dump.
In 2006, his first year with the Sox, Lowell played in 153 games and rebounded soundly, batting .284 with 20 homers, 80 RBI, and an .814 OPS.
He followed that with an outstanding 2007 season, in which he had career highs in batting average (.324) and RBIs (120) to go with 21 home runs and an .879 OPS in 154 games. Lowell's RBI total set a Red Sox record for third basemen.
The surging Lowell ended his outstanding season with a torrid October. In Boston's four-game World Series sweep of Colorado, Lowell hit .400 (6-for-15) with four RBI, three walks, and a team-high six runs. He homered, doubled, and scored twice in the Game Four clincher at Denver's Coors Field, en route to winning the World Series MVP.
During the Red Sox's subsequent victory parade around Boston, fans held signs aloft and loudly voiced their demands that the club re-sign the third baseman. Lowell had endeared himself to Red Sox Nation.
However, his stellar performance had also gotten the attention of other clubs. The Yankees reportedly offered Lowell a four-year deal worth $50-$55 million to play first base.
The four-time All Star also turned down a four-year contract from the Phillies (reportedly in the vicinity of $50 million) in favor of a three-year, $37.5 million deal to stay in Boston.
Lowell made his decision based on the facts that he liked the city, the organization, his teammates, his manager, and the fans.
However, he has probably regretted that decision ever since.
The Red Sox have tried, or at least discussed, trading Lowell a minimum of three times in the intervening period.
First, the Red Sox had discussions with the Rockies on a Lowell-for-Todd Helton deal after the 2007 season. Then the Sox made an aggressive attempt to sign Mark Teixeira after the 2008 season, which would have left Lowell as the odd man out. And this offseason, they once again tried dealing Lowell to Texas for minor league catcher Max Ramirez.
Taken as a whole, all of this would make any player feel unwanted. Yet, Lowell has taken the high road and maintained the dignified demeanor that has defined his career. He is nothing if not a class act.
However, despite his hip injury and subsequent surgery in 2008, Lowell has still remained an offensive threat.
That year, Lowell was still a productive hitter, batting .274 with 17 homers, 73 RBI, and a .798 OPS. He followed that up last season by batting .290 with 17 homers, 75 RBI, and an .811 OPS.
But the problem was that Lowell played in just 113 games in 2008, followed by 119 in 2009.
However, in Lowell's view, he could have played more last season. "I feel like I could have played in another 15 to 20 games,'' he said recently.
Apparently the Red Sox saw things differently—and still do.
Lowell will be 36 next month, and the club is concerned that the combination of age and a surgically repaired hip (which may have become arthritic) have permanently affected his range and mobility.
Doctors told Lowell that his hip would not fully recover for a year. Yet, he still played 119 games last season, which may have slowed his healing and recovery to some degree.
In the past two years, prominent players such as Alex Rodriguez, Chase Utley, Carlos Delgado, and Alex Gordon have also undergone hip labrum surgery. But, with the exception of the 37-year-old Delgado, all were younger than Lowell. That likely aided their successful recoveries.
Lowell has dedicated himself to an offseason training regimen geared toward strengthening his hip and improving joint mobility. He says the hip feels better now than at any point last season and is confident in a full recovery. The Red Sox seem less optimistic.
Despite the fact that a lingering right thumb injury blew up a proposed trade to the Rangers, the resulting surgery was described as rather mundane and shouldn't limit Lowell at all. A full recovery is projected. The prescribed rehabilitation period is six to eight weeks and would put Lowell on schedule to start spring training with his teammates next month.
The potential deterioration of his right hip is a much larger matter.
Lowell will have to prove to the Red Sox, and any potential trade partners, that he is fully recovered and can be more than just a DH. But even then, he still has to be able to run the bases effectively.
The Puerto Rican native is a consummate professional. He understands the burden is on him to prove that he is ready and still capable. Lowell still sees himself as an everyday player and wants his name written into the daily lineup card.
That's why the implosion of the deal with Texas affected Lowell as much as the Red Sox. He is entering another contract year and wants to prove himself worthy of one more contract. That aside, he's a gamer who wants to be on the field for at least 150 games per season.
With the Red Sox, he knows he won't get that chance in 2010.
When his playing time was cut down following the acquisition of Victor Martinez at the trade deadline last season, Lowell was not happy. And he will not be happy playing behind Kevin Youkilis, or anyone else, this season.
Yet, he hasn't let the trade talk affect his public demeanor, noting, "I can honestly say I haven't lost a single minute of sleep because of [those reports]."
Perhaps that's because he's guaranteed to be paid $12 million this year, whether he plays or not. But still, the relationship between Lowell and the Red Sox may be irreparably damaged.
Since the Red Sox are reportedly unwilling to consider him as a starter this season, they are still intent on dealing him. And all potential trade partners already know that the Sox are willing to eat 75 percent of his salary. That's not a position of strength for the Red Sox.
“I understand the business. I have no problem in them shopping me around," the classy Lowell said recently.
That's a very professional attitude, and one that we've come to expect from Lowell over his four years in Boston.
The fact that defense has become an issue for Lowell is quite an irony; despite his physical limitations in each of the last two seasons, he still holds the all-time highest fielding percentage for a third baseman.
Yes, as incredible as it may sound, in 1,470 games at third base, Lowell's .976 fielding percentage is good enough for No. 1 all-time , ahead of Brooks Robinson, according to Baseball-Almanac.com.
Lowell also holds the National League record for fewest errors in a season , set in 2004, when he made just seven miscues in 396 total chances. He won the NL Gold Glove the following season when he committed just six errors in 356 chances.
But as far as the Red Sox are concerned, that was then, this is now.
Though Lowell remains a persistent offensive threat, the club will continue to explore all trade avenues through spring training—whatever the cost.
That will result in a disappointing end to the tenure of one of the better third basemen in Red Sox history, and one of the highest-character players to have ever worn the Red Sox uniform.
During his time in Boston, Lowell proved himself to be more than just dead weight. Yet, that is how he is perceived by the organization at this point.
We can't forget that Lowell has already beaten cancer, and we shouldn't discount the possibility that he has yet another bounce-back season left in him.
I, for one, hope so—wherever he plays.
Tuesday, December 15, 2009
Lackey Signing An Unusual Risk For Epstein
The signing of John Lackey to a five-year deal is a curious decision for Theo Epstein. The Red Sox GM has typically stayed away from long term deals with 30-something pitchers who come with a history of injury or obvious risk.
Since Epstein became general manager before the 2003 season, he has signed just one free-agent pitcher for more than three years – Daisuke Matsuzaka. Given his age (26), good health, and success in international competition, that was perhaps a special circumstance.
This time around, there are greater risks.
In 2008, Lackey missed the Angels' first 41 games with what was diagnosed as triceps tendinitis.
In 2009, Lackey had an MRI in spring training that revealed inflammation in his right elbow, had a cortisone shot, and missed the Angels' first 34 games.
As a result, Lackey has only thrown 163 1/3 and 176 1/3 innings the last two seasons. Depending on how you look at it, that's either a good or a bad thing.
The Red Sox were concerned enough to put language in his contract that will protect them from a pre-existing medical issue.
After making just 51 starts over the last two years, some might take the view that Lackey's arm hasn't received as much wear as if he'd made the customary 30-plus starts each year. Perhaps his arm has been somewhat preserved, making him fresh next year and beyond.
The Red Sox must think so. They had better hope so.
After striking out 199 and 190 batters in consecutive seasons in 2005-06, Lackey's strikeout rate has dipped dramatically, down to 179, then 130, and 139 each of the last three seasons.
Hopefully he will reverse that trend with the Red Sox next season, and remain healthy and effective for the duration of his contract. That is by no means a given.
Since 1990, only 16 pitchers have signed deals for five years or more. Only two pitchers on that list -- Greg Maddux and Mike Mussina -- averaged 30 or more starts per season over the life of their contracts.
Half of those pitchers ended up as busts -- Barry Zito, Mike Hampton, Chan Ho Park, Darren Dreifort, Denny Neagle, Kei Igawa, Wilson Alvarez and Alex Fernandez.
Obviously, the odds are against Lackey remaining healthy and making consistent starts over the life of the contract. Yet, Epstein went out on a limb on this one to make a splash, and to bridge the gap between his team and the Yankees.
Hopefully, when we look back on this moment five years from now, we'll have the hindsight, and the satisfaction, that his gamble paid off.
Since Epstein became general manager before the 2003 season, he has signed just one free-agent pitcher for more than three years – Daisuke Matsuzaka. Given his age (26), good health, and success in international competition, that was perhaps a special circumstance.
This time around, there are greater risks.
In 2008, Lackey missed the Angels' first 41 games with what was diagnosed as triceps tendinitis.
In 2009, Lackey had an MRI in spring training that revealed inflammation in his right elbow, had a cortisone shot, and missed the Angels' first 34 games.
As a result, Lackey has only thrown 163 1/3 and 176 1/3 innings the last two seasons. Depending on how you look at it, that's either a good or a bad thing.
The Red Sox were concerned enough to put language in his contract that will protect them from a pre-existing medical issue.
After making just 51 starts over the last two years, some might take the view that Lackey's arm hasn't received as much wear as if he'd made the customary 30-plus starts each year. Perhaps his arm has been somewhat preserved, making him fresh next year and beyond.
The Red Sox must think so. They had better hope so.
After striking out 199 and 190 batters in consecutive seasons in 2005-06, Lackey's strikeout rate has dipped dramatically, down to 179, then 130, and 139 each of the last three seasons.
Hopefully he will reverse that trend with the Red Sox next season, and remain healthy and effective for the duration of his contract. That is by no means a given.
Since 1990, only 16 pitchers have signed deals for five years or more. Only two pitchers on that list -- Greg Maddux and Mike Mussina -- averaged 30 or more starts per season over the life of their contracts.
Half of those pitchers ended up as busts -- Barry Zito, Mike Hampton, Chan Ho Park, Darren Dreifort, Denny Neagle, Kei Igawa, Wilson Alvarez and Alex Fernandez.
Obviously, the odds are against Lackey remaining healthy and making consistent starts over the life of the contract. Yet, Epstein went out on a limb on this one to make a splash, and to bridge the gap between his team and the Yankees.
Hopefully, when we look back on this moment five years from now, we'll have the hindsight, and the satisfaction, that his gamble paid off.
Mike Cameron Is No Star, But He's The Red Sox Bridge to 2012
Red Sox fans are just getting used to the idea of Mike Cameron patrolling left field for the Red Sox next season. And for many, it's not a particularly sexy idea.
After all, Cameron is 37 and has a lifetime .250 average. Among active players, only Jim Thome (2,313) has struck out more times than Cameron (1,798).
It's tough to get excited about that.
However, Cameron is a three time Gold Glover who can still go get the ball. Left field in Fenway should be a piece of cake for this guy, even if he's lost a step–and I've heard no indications that he has.
Additionally, JD Drew has averaged just 121 games a year over the last eleven seasons, and has never played in more than 146 in any of them. As customary, he will miss time for various reasons, and Cameron's ability to play terrific defense in all three outfield positions gives Terry Francona great flexibility.
The reason the Red Sox ended up with the 37-year-old Cameron is that there was a really limited market for corner outfielders after Jason Bay and Matt Holliday, both of whom are grossly overpriced.
Initially, I was hoping the Sox might sign Marlon Byrd or Xavier Nady, who was a rising star until he hurt his shoulder and had surgery last season. Perhaps that shoulder hasn't fully healed. You have to wonder if the Sox ever asked for his medical records?
And if the Red Sox are forced to part with Jacoby Ellsbury in an Adrian Gonzalez trade, then we may see Nady's name resurface, with Cameron going back to his natural position in center field.
The good news is that the Sox were able to get Cameron on a two year deal, at nearly $8 million per season. That may seem a bit pricey to some, but it's a short term arrangement that gets the Sox to their minor league kids, like Redick, Kalish and Westmoreland.
Cameron is the "bridge" that the Sox were talking about this offseason. And if they want to make a bid for someone like Carl Crawford next year, it will be easy to unload Cameron at that price.
It's worth noting that, with Cameron signing for just two years, the Red Sox will now have two outfield spots (left and right) opening up after the 2011 season.
I like that Cameron is said to be a a high character guy and a great clubhouse presence. Apparently, everyone loves him because he's a funny guy and a unifying figure. For whatever it's worth, he should keep things light and relaxed in the Sox clubhouse.
While Cameron's batting average worries me a bit, he has a career .340 OBP, which softens that a little. And he hit at least 20 homers eight times in his career. Over the last 11 years he's averaged 22 HR per season. And it can't be forgotten that he's played his career in expansive pitcher's parks in San Diego, Seattle and New York. He should fare well in the smaller confines of Fenway Park.
The combination of Cameron and Jeremy Hermida should be able to make up for Bay's lost offense.
On a side note, I think everyone is really curious to watch Hermida play, and find out if he can live up to the potential that once had him ranked so highly throughout baseball.
In the end, Cameron will also improve the Red Sox run prevention next year. As a whole, team defense should improve across the board, depending on who's at third / first.
So while Cameron isn't a star attraction, or a big name like Holliday or Bay, he should make a positive impact on the Red Sox in a variety of ways. And the Red Sox were able to acquire him short term, at a cost they can easily afford.
By the way, FanGraphs has this interesting bit here which says that Cameron is actually a better all around player than Bay.
After all, Cameron is 37 and has a lifetime .250 average. Among active players, only Jim Thome (2,313) has struck out more times than Cameron (1,798).
It's tough to get excited about that.
However, Cameron is a three time Gold Glover who can still go get the ball. Left field in Fenway should be a piece of cake for this guy, even if he's lost a step–and I've heard no indications that he has.
Additionally, JD Drew has averaged just 121 games a year over the last eleven seasons, and has never played in more than 146 in any of them. As customary, he will miss time for various reasons, and Cameron's ability to play terrific defense in all three outfield positions gives Terry Francona great flexibility.
The reason the Red Sox ended up with the 37-year-old Cameron is that there was a really limited market for corner outfielders after Jason Bay and Matt Holliday, both of whom are grossly overpriced.
Initially, I was hoping the Sox might sign Marlon Byrd or Xavier Nady, who was a rising star until he hurt his shoulder and had surgery last season. Perhaps that shoulder hasn't fully healed. You have to wonder if the Sox ever asked for his medical records?
And if the Red Sox are forced to part with Jacoby Ellsbury in an Adrian Gonzalez trade, then we may see Nady's name resurface, with Cameron going back to his natural position in center field.
The good news is that the Sox were able to get Cameron on a two year deal, at nearly $8 million per season. That may seem a bit pricey to some, but it's a short term arrangement that gets the Sox to their minor league kids, like Redick, Kalish and Westmoreland.
Cameron is the "bridge" that the Sox were talking about this offseason. And if they want to make a bid for someone like Carl Crawford next year, it will be easy to unload Cameron at that price.
It's worth noting that, with Cameron signing for just two years, the Red Sox will now have two outfield spots (left and right) opening up after the 2011 season.
I like that Cameron is said to be a a high character guy and a great clubhouse presence. Apparently, everyone loves him because he's a funny guy and a unifying figure. For whatever it's worth, he should keep things light and relaxed in the Sox clubhouse.
While Cameron's batting average worries me a bit, he has a career .340 OBP, which softens that a little. And he hit at least 20 homers eight times in his career. Over the last 11 years he's averaged 22 HR per season. And it can't be forgotten that he's played his career in expansive pitcher's parks in San Diego, Seattle and New York. He should fare well in the smaller confines of Fenway Park.
The combination of Cameron and Jeremy Hermida should be able to make up for Bay's lost offense.
On a side note, I think everyone is really curious to watch Hermida play, and find out if he can live up to the potential that once had him ranked so highly throughout baseball.
In the end, Cameron will also improve the Red Sox run prevention next year. As a whole, team defense should improve across the board, depending on who's at third / first.
So while Cameron isn't a star attraction, or a big name like Holliday or Bay, he should make a positive impact on the Red Sox in a variety of ways. And the Red Sox were able to acquire him short term, at a cost they can easily afford.
By the way, FanGraphs has this interesting bit here which says that Cameron is actually a better all around player than Bay.
Sunday, December 13, 2009
Could Garrett Atkins be the Red Sox Next Third Baseman?
The Colorado Rockies chose not to tender a contract to third baseman Garrett Atkins last night, making him a free agent.
Colorado had been trying to trade Atkins since last summer, but found no suitable, or willing, trade partners,
Over the past four seasons, the 30-year-old Atkins' OPS has continually declined, from .965, to .853, to.780 to .650.
That ultimately led to him being supplanted by third baseman Ian Stewart at mid-season.
Atkins made just over $7 million last season, and the Rockies weren't wiling to risk an an increase in arbitration for a backup third baseman.
In 2006, when he was just 26, Atkins took the NL by storm, posting a .329 average ( fourth in the NL), a .965 OPS, plus a career-high 29 homers and 120 RBI. He followed that up by batting .301 with 25 homers and 111 RBI in 2007, and .286 with 21 homers and 99 RBI in 2008.
Each year, Atkins declined not only in OPS, but also in batting average, home runs, and RBI. But though his numbers were in retreat, Atkins was still productive – until this year.
In 2009, Atkins gradual devolution morphed into a massive regression, as he slumped to a .226 average, with nine homers and 48 RBI in 126 games.
Atkins is known as a patient hitter with good plate discipline. He has a strong arm, though the rest of his defensive skills are questionable (career fielding percentage of .954 at third). However, his experience at first base (105 career games) also gives him some versatility.
Without question, some team will certainly take a flyer on Atkins (who just turned 30 on Saturday), hoping he can regain his previous form. Perhaps a change of scenery would do him good.
The question for Red Sox fans is whether Boston might be that team.
Regardless of whether the proposed Mike Lowell-for-Max Ramirez deal is consummated, the Red Sox obviously don't feel comfortable with Lowell as their everyday, starting third baseman in 2010.
Though the speculation has been that 31-year-old Adrian Beltre will be Lowell's eventual successor, it's important to remember that his agent is Scott Boras. As such, his contract will be both lengthy and large. Seattle would like to re-sign Beltre, and he will surely have other suitors as well.
Atkins would be a less expensive alternative, and one who will require a much shorter contract to boot. It's likely that Atkins can be had on a one-year deal. He simply needs the opportunity to redeem himself and resurrect his career.
One way or the other, it's a good bet that Atkins will have a new team this week.
After all, Adrian Beltre had an off year in 2009 too. And there is still a developing market for him, though at a much higher price.
Colorado had been trying to trade Atkins since last summer, but found no suitable, or willing, trade partners,
Over the past four seasons, the 30-year-old Atkins' OPS has continually declined, from .965, to .853, to.780 to .650.
That ultimately led to him being supplanted by third baseman Ian Stewart at mid-season.
Atkins made just over $7 million last season, and the Rockies weren't wiling to risk an an increase in arbitration for a backup third baseman.
In 2006, when he was just 26, Atkins took the NL by storm, posting a .329 average ( fourth in the NL), a .965 OPS, plus a career-high 29 homers and 120 RBI. He followed that up by batting .301 with 25 homers and 111 RBI in 2007, and .286 with 21 homers and 99 RBI in 2008.
Each year, Atkins declined not only in OPS, but also in batting average, home runs, and RBI. But though his numbers were in retreat, Atkins was still productive – until this year.
In 2009, Atkins gradual devolution morphed into a massive regression, as he slumped to a .226 average, with nine homers and 48 RBI in 126 games.
Atkins is known as a patient hitter with good plate discipline. He has a strong arm, though the rest of his defensive skills are questionable (career fielding percentage of .954 at third). However, his experience at first base (105 career games) also gives him some versatility.
Without question, some team will certainly take a flyer on Atkins (who just turned 30 on Saturday), hoping he can regain his previous form. Perhaps a change of scenery would do him good.
The question for Red Sox fans is whether Boston might be that team.
Regardless of whether the proposed Mike Lowell-for-Max Ramirez deal is consummated, the Red Sox obviously don't feel comfortable with Lowell as their everyday, starting third baseman in 2010.
Though the speculation has been that 31-year-old Adrian Beltre will be Lowell's eventual successor, it's important to remember that his agent is Scott Boras. As such, his contract will be both lengthy and large. Seattle would like to re-sign Beltre, and he will surely have other suitors as well.
Atkins would be a less expensive alternative, and one who will require a much shorter contract to boot. It's likely that Atkins can be had on a one-year deal. He simply needs the opportunity to redeem himself and resurrect his career.
One way or the other, it's a good bet that Atkins will have a new team this week.
After all, Adrian Beltre had an off year in 2009 too. And there is still a developing market for him, though at a much higher price.
Saturday, December 12, 2009
Is Jason's Bay's Short Stay in Boston Over?
Jason Bay's brief career in Boston may be over.
Bay has rejected the Red Sox' latest offer (four years, $60 million) and is entertaining better proposals from other clubs, according to his agent, Joe Urbon.
"We don't agree with their evaluation of the player," Urbon said. "Frankly, we have other offers on the table that are of greater interest to Jason."
Though Urbon left open the possibility that the Red Sox could rejoin the negotiations, he didn't sound optimistic about that possibility, saying Bay was prepared to "move on."
The Mets reportedly offered Bay a four-year, $65 million deal, and the Angels and Mariners are among the other clubs showing interest.
The Red Sox have a history of placing a value on a player and not budging from it. They don't get emotionally invested in, or attached to, their players – though some would argue that in the past they've become too enamored with other team's free agents (i.e.Julio Lugo and JD Drew). In recent years, the Red Sox have let Bill Meuller, Kevin Millar, Pedro Martinez, Derek Lowe and Johnny Damon all walk away to better offers.
The 31-year-old Bay is believed to be seeking a five-year contract. The Red Sox don't generally like to enter into deals of five years or longer with players in their 30's. However, the Sox did grant JD Drew an eyebrow raising five-year contract three years ago, when he was also 31.
For what it’s worth, during his major league career as a starter (2004-09), Bay ranks in the top 10 of all major league outfielders in OPS, a statistic on which the Sox have placed great emphasis and in which Bay and Drew have been a virtual dead heat over the last six years. However, Bay beats Drew handily in games played (892-749), home runs (181-120), runs scored (564-497) and RBI (596-425).
In the absence of Bay, the Red Sox could move on to negotiations with Scott Boras regarding Matt Holliday. As it stands, the Sox and Boras are already negotiating the parameters of a contract with Adrian Beltre. But knowing how long and protracted negotiations with Boras are, and how highly he values (some would say overvalues) his clients, the Holliday option could be very costly, and perhaps a dead end. In addition, Holliday is likely seeking a contract in excess of five years.
With that in mind, the Sox are also considering Mike Cameron, who will be 37 next month. Cameron is a center fielder, but appears willing to move to a corner outfield spot. In 149 games last season, Cameron posted a .250/.342/.452 line, all essentially matching his career averages. Cameron also had 24 homers and 70 RBI in 2009.
Obviously, that won't make up for the loss of Bay's production, and Cameron seems like a very weak fall back plan. However, Cameron is a far superior defender to Bay, and the Red Sox are placing ever-greater emphasis on run prevention.
Another option for the Sox is free agent Marlon Byrd, who was offered salary arbitration by the Rangers. The 32-year-old outfielder had 20 homers and 89 RBI last season, to go along with a .283/.329/.422 line.
Byrd is a versatile fielder with good range, who has played all three outfield positions. That, coupled with the fact that he is also a right handed hitter with some power, might make him a great fit at Fenway Park.
As an indication of Byrd's terrific character, he won the Rangers' Harold McKinney "Good Guy Award" in 2007.
With highly touted minor league outfielders like Ryan Kalish, Ryan Westmoreland and Josh Reddick just a couple of yeas away from contributing to the big league team, the Red Sox don't seem eager to invest in the defensively limited Bay for more than four years. They believe that before his contract is through, they will have better defensive options at a far lower cost, and that Bay will eventually wind up as an overpriced DH.
With that in mind, it is conceivable that we've seen the last of Jason Bay in a Red Sox uniform.
Bay has rejected the Red Sox' latest offer (four years, $60 million) and is entertaining better proposals from other clubs, according to his agent, Joe Urbon.
"We don't agree with their evaluation of the player," Urbon said. "Frankly, we have other offers on the table that are of greater interest to Jason."
Though Urbon left open the possibility that the Red Sox could rejoin the negotiations, he didn't sound optimistic about that possibility, saying Bay was prepared to "move on."
The Mets reportedly offered Bay a four-year, $65 million deal, and the Angels and Mariners are among the other clubs showing interest.
The Red Sox have a history of placing a value on a player and not budging from it. They don't get emotionally invested in, or attached to, their players – though some would argue that in the past they've become too enamored with other team's free agents (i.e.Julio Lugo and JD Drew). In recent years, the Red Sox have let Bill Meuller, Kevin Millar, Pedro Martinez, Derek Lowe and Johnny Damon all walk away to better offers.
The 31-year-old Bay is believed to be seeking a five-year contract. The Red Sox don't generally like to enter into deals of five years or longer with players in their 30's. However, the Sox did grant JD Drew an eyebrow raising five-year contract three years ago, when he was also 31.
For what it’s worth, during his major league career as a starter (2004-09), Bay ranks in the top 10 of all major league outfielders in OPS, a statistic on which the Sox have placed great emphasis and in which Bay and Drew have been a virtual dead heat over the last six years. However, Bay beats Drew handily in games played (892-749), home runs (181-120), runs scored (564-497) and RBI (596-425).
In the absence of Bay, the Red Sox could move on to negotiations with Scott Boras regarding Matt Holliday. As it stands, the Sox and Boras are already negotiating the parameters of a contract with Adrian Beltre. But knowing how long and protracted negotiations with Boras are, and how highly he values (some would say overvalues) his clients, the Holliday option could be very costly, and perhaps a dead end. In addition, Holliday is likely seeking a contract in excess of five years.
With that in mind, the Sox are also considering Mike Cameron, who will be 37 next month. Cameron is a center fielder, but appears willing to move to a corner outfield spot. In 149 games last season, Cameron posted a .250/.342/.452 line, all essentially matching his career averages. Cameron also had 24 homers and 70 RBI in 2009.
Obviously, that won't make up for the loss of Bay's production, and Cameron seems like a very weak fall back plan. However, Cameron is a far superior defender to Bay, and the Red Sox are placing ever-greater emphasis on run prevention.
Another option for the Sox is free agent Marlon Byrd, who was offered salary arbitration by the Rangers. The 32-year-old outfielder had 20 homers and 89 RBI last season, to go along with a .283/.329/.422 line.
Byrd is a versatile fielder with good range, who has played all three outfield positions. That, coupled with the fact that he is also a right handed hitter with some power, might make him a great fit at Fenway Park.
As an indication of Byrd's terrific character, he won the Rangers' Harold McKinney "Good Guy Award" in 2007.
With highly touted minor league outfielders like Ryan Kalish, Ryan Westmoreland and Josh Reddick just a couple of yeas away from contributing to the big league team, the Red Sox don't seem eager to invest in the defensively limited Bay for more than four years. They believe that before his contract is through, they will have better defensive options at a far lower cost, and that Bay will eventually wind up as an overpriced DH.
With that in mind, it is conceivable that we've seen the last of Jason Bay in a Red Sox uniform.
Friday, December 11, 2009
Why Pay Lowell to Play for Rangers?
Mike Lowell for Max Ramirez is a proposal / deal that leaves everyone but the Red Sox puzzled. Why would the Red Sox pay up to three-quarters of Lowell's 2010 salary, amounting to $8 or $9 million, to play for Texas?
Yes, Lowell has been hobbled by his surgically repaired hip, but he has told both reporters and the Red Sox that he feels better than at any time since the injury that led to the surgery.
Lowell's doctors told him it would take at least a year to fully recover, which is about now. His hip has become arthritic, which may permanently affect his range and mobility, but Lowell is still a dangerous hitter and could well serve the Red Sox in a variety of capacities: third base, first base, and right handed DH.
The veteran third baseman is a high character guy, widely respected throughout baseball. Red Sox management loves him, despite shopping him (hey, this is a business after all), the fans love him, and his teammates love and respect him.
Lowell is said to be a very positive and professional influence inside the Red Sox clubhouse; you never any scandals or dirty laundry attached to his name.
Most importantly Lowell can still hit. Though he only played in 113 games in 2008, he still notched 17 homers and 73 RBI, which was more than JD Drew.
And last season, despite playing in just 119 games, Lowell once again posted 17 homers and 75 RBI (the latter of which was again better than JD Drew). In fact, Lowell's 75 RBI were fifth highest on the team.
Why wouldn't the Red Sox keep a guy with that kind of offense to platoon at first, third, and DH? Wouldn't he make an ideal pinch hitter? Last season, Lowell became the first Red Sox player to hit two home runs off the bench in the same game since Joe Foy in 1967.
It's understandable that the Red Sox have concerns about Lowell's potential, or continuing, defensive limitations in 2010. But does paying most of his salary to play for another team make any sense? If the deal is consummated, the Red Sox will have payed Lowell about $34 million for just two years of service. That's not a very good return on their investment.
The only way a trade for Max Ramirez makes any sense is if he is simply a trade chip that the Sox will spin off as part of a larger swap.
The Mariners are said to be discussing a deal for the Padres' Adrian Gonzalez, renewing a pursuit that began prior to last season's trade deadline. The fact that the Padres are even listening means that they are at least considering a trade of their franchise player and local hero.
A source told Fox Spots Thursday that the slugging first baseman "could be had in the right deal."
The Padres' new GM Jed Hoyer obviously has close ties to Theo Epstein, and he knows the Red Sox system better than any other team's. Making a deal with the Red Sox for his star first baseman makes more sense than dealing with any other club.
Perhaps the Red Sox are trying to give the Padres an additional trade chip, another young (25), slugging first baseman/catcher. Ramirez is leading the Venezuelan Winter League with 12 homers.
With two catchers already on the Red Sox roster at a combined total of over $10 million next year, there doesn't seem to be a place for the defensively challenged Ramirez in that role. And since the Red Sox will offer a contract to Casey Kotchman to once again be their backup first baseman, that also seems to preclude Ramirez.
So unless the Red Sox are planning to spin off Ramirez in some larger deal, exchanging a veteran hitter and clubhouse leader like Lowell for a player who likely won't impact the big league roster this season is unfathomable. Lowell is a known quantity, while Ramirez is anything but.
At 25, Ramirez still hasn't proven that he can perform at the Major League level. In 57 plate appearances during the 2008 season, Ramirez has a .217 batting average and a .715 OPS, with two homers and nine RBIs.
According to Baseball America, he was the 84th-best prospect in baseball and the 10th-best in the Rangers organization entering last season.
However, injuries to both wrists limited him to just 76 games in 2009, affecting his hitting (.234 avg.) and sapping his power (5 HR).
Despite four All Star selections, two World Series Championships and a World Series MVP, apparently that's all Mike Lowell is worth these days.
Yes, Lowell has been hobbled by his surgically repaired hip, but he has told both reporters and the Red Sox that he feels better than at any time since the injury that led to the surgery.
Lowell's doctors told him it would take at least a year to fully recover, which is about now. His hip has become arthritic, which may permanently affect his range and mobility, but Lowell is still a dangerous hitter and could well serve the Red Sox in a variety of capacities: third base, first base, and right handed DH.
The veteran third baseman is a high character guy, widely respected throughout baseball. Red Sox management loves him, despite shopping him (hey, this is a business after all), the fans love him, and his teammates love and respect him.
Lowell is said to be a very positive and professional influence inside the Red Sox clubhouse; you never any scandals or dirty laundry attached to his name.
Most importantly Lowell can still hit. Though he only played in 113 games in 2008, he still notched 17 homers and 73 RBI, which was more than JD Drew.
And last season, despite playing in just 119 games, Lowell once again posted 17 homers and 75 RBI (the latter of which was again better than JD Drew). In fact, Lowell's 75 RBI were fifth highest on the team.
Why wouldn't the Red Sox keep a guy with that kind of offense to platoon at first, third, and DH? Wouldn't he make an ideal pinch hitter? Last season, Lowell became the first Red Sox player to hit two home runs off the bench in the same game since Joe Foy in 1967.
It's understandable that the Red Sox have concerns about Lowell's potential, or continuing, defensive limitations in 2010. But does paying most of his salary to play for another team make any sense? If the deal is consummated, the Red Sox will have payed Lowell about $34 million for just two years of service. That's not a very good return on their investment.
The only way a trade for Max Ramirez makes any sense is if he is simply a trade chip that the Sox will spin off as part of a larger swap.
The Mariners are said to be discussing a deal for the Padres' Adrian Gonzalez, renewing a pursuit that began prior to last season's trade deadline. The fact that the Padres are even listening means that they are at least considering a trade of their franchise player and local hero.
A source told Fox Spots Thursday that the slugging first baseman "could be had in the right deal."
The Padres' new GM Jed Hoyer obviously has close ties to Theo Epstein, and he knows the Red Sox system better than any other team's. Making a deal with the Red Sox for his star first baseman makes more sense than dealing with any other club.
Perhaps the Red Sox are trying to give the Padres an additional trade chip, another young (25), slugging first baseman/catcher. Ramirez is leading the Venezuelan Winter League with 12 homers.
With two catchers already on the Red Sox roster at a combined total of over $10 million next year, there doesn't seem to be a place for the defensively challenged Ramirez in that role. And since the Red Sox will offer a contract to Casey Kotchman to once again be their backup first baseman, that also seems to preclude Ramirez.
So unless the Red Sox are planning to spin off Ramirez in some larger deal, exchanging a veteran hitter and clubhouse leader like Lowell for a player who likely won't impact the big league roster this season is unfathomable. Lowell is a known quantity, while Ramirez is anything but.
At 25, Ramirez still hasn't proven that he can perform at the Major League level. In 57 plate appearances during the 2008 season, Ramirez has a .217 batting average and a .715 OPS, with two homers and nine RBIs.
According to Baseball America, he was the 84th-best prospect in baseball and the 10th-best in the Rangers organization entering last season.
However, injuries to both wrists limited him to just 76 games in 2009, affecting his hitting (.234 avg.) and sapping his power (5 HR).
Despite four All Star selections, two World Series Championships and a World Series MVP, apparently that's all Mike Lowell is worth these days.
Wednesday, December 09, 2009
Red Sox Trying to Balance Present and Future
Don't hold your breath for the Red Sox to make big, newsworthy deals for players such as Adrian Gonzalez, Felix Hernandez, or especially Roy Halladay. The cost in terms of prospects is just too high, and the Sox have far fewer chips today than earlier this year.
In the case of Halladay, the cost would also include a massive long term contract for a pitcher entering his mid-thirties. That's just the kind the Red Sox are loathe to give.
In deals for Victor Martinez, Adam LaRoche/Casey Kotchman, Alex Gonzalez and Billy Wagner, the Sox gave up eight minor leaguers. That impacted their upper minor league ranks. And two of their most highly anticipated prospects–Michael Bowden and Lars Anderson–took big steps backward this year and may have been overrated from the start.
Theo Epstein always has an eye on the future, and on future payroll costs. The GM wants to use free agency and trades to supplement and deepen a roster built on homegrown talent.
With that in mind, the Red Sox are not likely to strip down their minor league system any further, and the chances of them parting with some combination of Clay Buchholz, Daniel Bard and/or Casey Kelly are slim and none.
At this point, Buchholz and Bard are beyond prospects. They have proven themselves, to varying degrees, at the Major League level.
Kelly is now the Red Sox' prized pitching prospect, and could be ready for the Majors by 2011 or 2012, at the latest. He will be under team control, and therefore very cost effective, for six years thereafter. That makes him a keeper.
No doubt, Kelly could eventually implode, as Bowden has. But Kelly was more highly rated from the start. For what it's worth, Yankees scouting director Damon Oppenheimer said Kelly has a bright future as a pitcher and called him a "great kid."
"One of the best kids I've ever dealt with. Very mature," raves Oppenheimer.
The Red Sox will have a full season of Victor Martinez next year, and won't be saddled by the daily presence of Jason Varitek's bat in the everyday lineup. That's a big improvement by itself.
And it's likely that the Red Sox will retain Jason Bay after all. The Mariners have already spent big on Chone Figgins and are still in play for John Lackey. That would doubly hurt their division rival Angels.
Speaking of the Angels, last month Angels owner Arte Moreno said that he has roughly $12 million to spend on improving the club. That seems to preclude them from signing Bay or Lackey.
And manager Mike Scioscia has said the Angels have "more pressing needs... right now than the talent that Jason can bring," and that Bay might not be "a great fit for our club."
Unless that's a smokescreen, there's one less potential big market suitor for Bay.
And the left fielder probably has a limited market anyway, since his tepid defensive skills make him better suited for a DH role during the later years of a long term contract. It's hard to envision anyone topping the Red Sox' four-year, $60 million offer.
Assuming the Red Sox re-sign Bay (or sign Matt Holliday), their offense should be improved next year with the addition of Marco Scutaro and a full season of Martinez. As it was, their offense was very good in 2009.
The Red Sox 212 homers and 872 runs last season were better than the 166 homers and 867 runs they produced during their 2007 World Championship season.
Last season, the Red Sox were in the top five in all of baseball in ALL major categories. In fact, the Sox finished in the top two in many areas – second only to the Yankees.
They will be a playoff competitor again next year. But they will return with largely the same team as last season, which was swept in the ALDS.
But Epstein will not sacrifice his long term plan for a short term splash.
As he put it recently, “I’d say 90 percent of our time as baseball operations is spent trying to build the foundation and build our long-term outlook. Ten percent of our time is spent maximizing our competitiveness in any one particular year."
Unless the Red Sox sign free agents, trades would merely result in addition by subtraction, which doesn't seem like a great strategy. Other teams aren't eager to trade for Big Papi or Mike Lowell and their $12 million salaries. The players other teams call about are Ellsbury, Lester, Buchholz, Bard, etc.
The Red Sox will spend big next winter when the contracts of Papi, Lowell, Josh Beckett, and Julio Lugo come off the books, and the free agent market will be deeper.
In the meantime, they will resist the temptation of a short term payoff, focusing instead on larger, long term rewards. They will try to balance wise trades and free agent signings with the goal of keeping the pipeline of talented prospects flowing to the big league club. All the while, they will attempt to do this without ever entering into a rebuilding mode.
"The short fix – the shiny toy – it’s always attractive," said Epstein. "It’s always a temptation. There’s always a seduction there. I think we talk to each other about staying disciplined and making the move when it actually will have an impact, but not if it hurts us more in the long term than it helps us.’’
Keeping the GM's perspective in mind will help to temper any unrealistic expectations this offseason.
In the case of Halladay, the cost would also include a massive long term contract for a pitcher entering his mid-thirties. That's just the kind the Red Sox are loathe to give.
In deals for Victor Martinez, Adam LaRoche/Casey Kotchman, Alex Gonzalez and Billy Wagner, the Sox gave up eight minor leaguers. That impacted their upper minor league ranks. And two of their most highly anticipated prospects–Michael Bowden and Lars Anderson–took big steps backward this year and may have been overrated from the start.
Theo Epstein always has an eye on the future, and on future payroll costs. The GM wants to use free agency and trades to supplement and deepen a roster built on homegrown talent.
With that in mind, the Red Sox are not likely to strip down their minor league system any further, and the chances of them parting with some combination of Clay Buchholz, Daniel Bard and/or Casey Kelly are slim and none.
At this point, Buchholz and Bard are beyond prospects. They have proven themselves, to varying degrees, at the Major League level.
Kelly is now the Red Sox' prized pitching prospect, and could be ready for the Majors by 2011 or 2012, at the latest. He will be under team control, and therefore very cost effective, for six years thereafter. That makes him a keeper.
No doubt, Kelly could eventually implode, as Bowden has. But Kelly was more highly rated from the start. For what it's worth, Yankees scouting director Damon Oppenheimer said Kelly has a bright future as a pitcher and called him a "great kid."
"One of the best kids I've ever dealt with. Very mature," raves Oppenheimer.
The Red Sox will have a full season of Victor Martinez next year, and won't be saddled by the daily presence of Jason Varitek's bat in the everyday lineup. That's a big improvement by itself.
And it's likely that the Red Sox will retain Jason Bay after all. The Mariners have already spent big on Chone Figgins and are still in play for John Lackey. That would doubly hurt their division rival Angels.
Speaking of the Angels, last month Angels owner Arte Moreno said that he has roughly $12 million to spend on improving the club. That seems to preclude them from signing Bay or Lackey.
And manager Mike Scioscia has said the Angels have "more pressing needs... right now than the talent that Jason can bring," and that Bay might not be "a great fit for our club."
Unless that's a smokescreen, there's one less potential big market suitor for Bay.
And the left fielder probably has a limited market anyway, since his tepid defensive skills make him better suited for a DH role during the later years of a long term contract. It's hard to envision anyone topping the Red Sox' four-year, $60 million offer.
Assuming the Red Sox re-sign Bay (or sign Matt Holliday), their offense should be improved next year with the addition of Marco Scutaro and a full season of Martinez. As it was, their offense was very good in 2009.
The Red Sox 212 homers and 872 runs last season were better than the 166 homers and 867 runs they produced during their 2007 World Championship season.
Last season, the Red Sox were in the top five in all of baseball in ALL major categories. In fact, the Sox finished in the top two in many areas – second only to the Yankees.
They will be a playoff competitor again next year. But they will return with largely the same team as last season, which was swept in the ALDS.
But Epstein will not sacrifice his long term plan for a short term splash.
As he put it recently, “I’d say 90 percent of our time as baseball operations is spent trying to build the foundation and build our long-term outlook. Ten percent of our time is spent maximizing our competitiveness in any one particular year."
Unless the Red Sox sign free agents, trades would merely result in addition by subtraction, which doesn't seem like a great strategy. Other teams aren't eager to trade for Big Papi or Mike Lowell and their $12 million salaries. The players other teams call about are Ellsbury, Lester, Buchholz, Bard, etc.
The Red Sox will spend big next winter when the contracts of Papi, Lowell, Josh Beckett, and Julio Lugo come off the books, and the free agent market will be deeper.
In the meantime, they will resist the temptation of a short term payoff, focusing instead on larger, long term rewards. They will try to balance wise trades and free agent signings with the goal of keeping the pipeline of talented prospects flowing to the big league club. All the while, they will attempt to do this without ever entering into a rebuilding mode.
"The short fix – the shiny toy – it’s always attractive," said Epstein. "It’s always a temptation. There’s always a seduction there. I think we talk to each other about staying disciplined and making the move when it actually will have an impact, but not if it hurts us more in the long term than it helps us.’’
Keeping the GM's perspective in mind will help to temper any unrealistic expectations this offseason.
Thursday, December 03, 2009
Scutaro Was the Best They Could Do?
Pending a physical, the Red Sox and free agent shortstop Marco Scutaro have reached an agreement on a two-year deal, with an option for a third year.
Scutaro had the best season of his career in 2009, putting up .282/.379/.409 numbers. He had career highs in runs (100), homers (12), doubles (35), steals (14) and matched his career high with 60 RBI.
The numbers that particularly stand out are his OBP (which was third among AL shortstops), doubles, and runs scored.
But my bet is that this guy has peaked. He had a career year at the age of 34.
This is the Red Sox first significant move of this offseason (Jeremy Hermida notwithstanding), and the feeling I'm left with is: This is it? This is the best the Red Sox could do?
It's simply difficult to get excited about Marco Scutaro, who, at age 34, is coming off a career year.
Scutaro's career stat line is .265/.337/.384, which is tough to get excited about. Over the past six seasons he's averaged 8 homers and 47 RBI. Getting excited yet?
Scutaro has played 415 career games at shortstop, 306 at second base, 98 at third base, 18 in the outfield, and three at first base.
As a shortstop, Scutaro has a .973 career fielding percentage.
For comparison's sake, Alex Gonzalez has a .970 career FP over 1206 games, a significantly higher sample size. Orlando Cabrera also has a .970 career FP, over 1684 career games at short. And Edgar Renteria also has a career .970 FP, over 1960 games at short.
Ultimately, after all the chaos and flux at the shortstop position for the Red Sox, many of us were hoping for something more dramatic, and player who is far more dynamic. But it was not to be.
Meet your new shortstop, Red Sox fans. Get used to him; apparently he'll be around for at least two years.
Scutaro had the best season of his career in 2009, putting up .282/.379/.409 numbers. He had career highs in runs (100), homers (12), doubles (35), steals (14) and matched his career high with 60 RBI.
The numbers that particularly stand out are his OBP (which was third among AL shortstops), doubles, and runs scored.
But my bet is that this guy has peaked. He had a career year at the age of 34.
This is the Red Sox first significant move of this offseason (Jeremy Hermida notwithstanding), and the feeling I'm left with is: This is it? This is the best the Red Sox could do?
It's simply difficult to get excited about Marco Scutaro, who, at age 34, is coming off a career year.
Scutaro's career stat line is .265/.337/.384, which is tough to get excited about. Over the past six seasons he's averaged 8 homers and 47 RBI. Getting excited yet?
Scutaro has played 415 career games at shortstop, 306 at second base, 98 at third base, 18 in the outfield, and three at first base.
As a shortstop, Scutaro has a .973 career fielding percentage.
For comparison's sake, Alex Gonzalez has a .970 career FP over 1206 games, a significantly higher sample size. Orlando Cabrera also has a .970 career FP, over 1684 career games at short. And Edgar Renteria also has a career .970 FP, over 1960 games at short.
Ultimately, after all the chaos and flux at the shortstop position for the Red Sox, many of us were hoping for something more dramatic, and player who is far more dynamic. But it was not to be.
Meet your new shortstop, Red Sox fans. Get used to him; apparently he'll be around for at least two years.
Wednesday, December 02, 2009
Pedroia's Selfless Gesture Gives Red Sox Greater Options
The news that Dustin Pedroia is willing to move to shortstop to accommodate the Red Sox is a sign of his selflessness. It is a clear indication of his willingness to do whatever it takes to help his team win.
But, naturally, questions have arisen as to whether Pedroia can actually play short, whether he has the range and, particularly, the arm strength for the position.
However, it's important to remember that Pedroia has a long history of success at shortstop, going all the way back to college.
At Arizona State, Pedroia was a star shortstop that gained national attention. In fact, he beat out Ian Kinsler, another future All-Star middle infielder, for the position.
Pedroia was nothing less than a sensation at short, twice a first-team All-American, and the national Defensive Player of the Year in 2003.
When the Red Sox drafted him out of ASU in 2004, they were particularly compelled by his defensive prowess at the position.
In 2004, Pedroia played 42 games at shortstop in the South Atlantic and Florida State leagues without making an error. He only moved to second base in 2005 at Portland because the Red Sox had another rising sensation at shortstop, Hanley Ramirez.
Despite this, Pedroia still played shortstop in both Portland and Pawtucket. Over 270 minor league games, he made a total of just seven errors.
The evidence is compelling; the guy can indeed play short.
But why would the Red Sox move their MVP, two-time All Star, and Gold Glove winner to shortstop? Because there are better, more affordable, short term possibilities available at second base this offseason.
The Dodgers did not offer arbitration to free agent second baseman Orlando Hudson. The eight-year veteran, who will be 32 in a matter of days, is a career .282/.348/.431 hitter. More importantly, he is a four-time Gold Glove winner.
Hudson made only $3.38 million this past season, and would be a very affordable option to the Red Sox.
The financially struggling Reds need to shed payroll and are apparently willing to part with second baseman Brandon Phillips.
Phillips' contract calls for a guaranteed $17.75 million over the next two seasons, making him too expensive for the Reds. But he is an affordable option for the Red Sox, with a contract that will pay him $6.75M in 2010 and $11M in 2011. There is also a $12M club option in 2012, with a $1M buyout.
The 28-year-old hit .276 with 20 homers and 98 RBI this year, obviously very appealing numbers. And the guy can play defense too, winning the Gold Glove in 2008.
Thirty-four-year-old Placido Polanco is another option. A two-time Gold Glove winner with Detroit (2007, 2009), Polanco is a career .303/.348/.414 hitter. And over the last three seasons he has scored an average of 92 runs.
At this stage of his career, Polanco would represent yet another affordable, short term option to the Red Sox, especially since he wasn't offered arbitration by Detroit.
Eleven-year veteran Ronnie Belliard is one more option for the Red Sox.
Though he will 35 at the start of next season, Belliard is an excellent defensive player and a career .275/.339/.418 hitter. Over the last five seasons, Belliard has averaged 12 homers and 58 RBI, making his defense the essence of his appeal.
Like Hudson, the Dodgers did not offer Belliard arbitration. His last contract only paid him $3.5 million over two years, making him an easily affordable option to the Red Sox. That said, he is a long shot.
The Red Sox clearly aren't eager to move Pedroia to short, but the idea is at least under consideration. There are still other available options at short, via the free agent market.
Miguel Tejada wasn't given arbitration by the Astros, significantly lifting his appeal.
At 35, he might accept a two-year offer from the Red Sox to play short in 2010, then move to third in 2011 when Mike Lowell's contract is up.
Though his power has diminished greatly, Tejada is still an offensive force, batting .313 with 199 hits last season.
Tejada may be the most desirable of the free agent shortstops on the market. Players such as Khalil Greene and Adam Everett aren't very enticing, and Marco Scutaro was offered arbitration by the Blue Jays, lessening his appeal.
Orlando Cabrera is a bit of a long shot to fill the gap for the Red Sox.
Now 35, Cabrera led all shortstops with 25 errors last season, while hitting 284/.316/.389.
Aside from his defensive shortcomings, Cabrera's low OBP doesn't fit the profile the Red Sox favor.
Cabrera has diminishing leverage as a free agent. He is coming off a one-year, $4 million deal with Oakland, a figure he won't likely command this winter.
Considering the dearth of quality shortstops available, it's easy to understand why the Red Sox are considering a variety of second basemen instead.
Having their incumbent second baseman so willing and able to move to shortstop may ultimately provide much better options to the club this offseason.
But, naturally, questions have arisen as to whether Pedroia can actually play short, whether he has the range and, particularly, the arm strength for the position.
However, it's important to remember that Pedroia has a long history of success at shortstop, going all the way back to college.
At Arizona State, Pedroia was a star shortstop that gained national attention. In fact, he beat out Ian Kinsler, another future All-Star middle infielder, for the position.
Pedroia was nothing less than a sensation at short, twice a first-team All-American, and the national Defensive Player of the Year in 2003.
When the Red Sox drafted him out of ASU in 2004, they were particularly compelled by his defensive prowess at the position.
In 2004, Pedroia played 42 games at shortstop in the South Atlantic and Florida State leagues without making an error. He only moved to second base in 2005 at Portland because the Red Sox had another rising sensation at shortstop, Hanley Ramirez.
Despite this, Pedroia still played shortstop in both Portland and Pawtucket. Over 270 minor league games, he made a total of just seven errors.
The evidence is compelling; the guy can indeed play short.
But why would the Red Sox move their MVP, two-time All Star, and Gold Glove winner to shortstop? Because there are better, more affordable, short term possibilities available at second base this offseason.
The Dodgers did not offer arbitration to free agent second baseman Orlando Hudson. The eight-year veteran, who will be 32 in a matter of days, is a career .282/.348/.431 hitter. More importantly, he is a four-time Gold Glove winner.
Hudson made only $3.38 million this past season, and would be a very affordable option to the Red Sox.
The financially struggling Reds need to shed payroll and are apparently willing to part with second baseman Brandon Phillips.
Phillips' contract calls for a guaranteed $17.75 million over the next two seasons, making him too expensive for the Reds. But he is an affordable option for the Red Sox, with a contract that will pay him $6.75M in 2010 and $11M in 2011. There is also a $12M club option in 2012, with a $1M buyout.
The 28-year-old hit .276 with 20 homers and 98 RBI this year, obviously very appealing numbers. And the guy can play defense too, winning the Gold Glove in 2008.
Thirty-four-year-old Placido Polanco is another option. A two-time Gold Glove winner with Detroit (2007, 2009), Polanco is a career .303/.348/.414 hitter. And over the last three seasons he has scored an average of 92 runs.
At this stage of his career, Polanco would represent yet another affordable, short term option to the Red Sox, especially since he wasn't offered arbitration by Detroit.
Eleven-year veteran Ronnie Belliard is one more option for the Red Sox.
Though he will 35 at the start of next season, Belliard is an excellent defensive player and a career .275/.339/.418 hitter. Over the last five seasons, Belliard has averaged 12 homers and 58 RBI, making his defense the essence of his appeal.
Like Hudson, the Dodgers did not offer Belliard arbitration. His last contract only paid him $3.5 million over two years, making him an easily affordable option to the Red Sox. That said, he is a long shot.
The Red Sox clearly aren't eager to move Pedroia to short, but the idea is at least under consideration. There are still other available options at short, via the free agent market.
Miguel Tejada wasn't given arbitration by the Astros, significantly lifting his appeal.
At 35, he might accept a two-year offer from the Red Sox to play short in 2010, then move to third in 2011 when Mike Lowell's contract is up.
Though his power has diminished greatly, Tejada is still an offensive force, batting .313 with 199 hits last season.
Tejada may be the most desirable of the free agent shortstops on the market. Players such as Khalil Greene and Adam Everett aren't very enticing, and Marco Scutaro was offered arbitration by the Blue Jays, lessening his appeal.
Orlando Cabrera is a bit of a long shot to fill the gap for the Red Sox.
Now 35, Cabrera led all shortstops with 25 errors last season, while hitting 284/.316/.389.
Aside from his defensive shortcomings, Cabrera's low OBP doesn't fit the profile the Red Sox favor.
Cabrera has diminishing leverage as a free agent. He is coming off a one-year, $4 million deal with Oakland, a figure he won't likely command this winter.
Considering the dearth of quality shortstops available, it's easy to understand why the Red Sox are considering a variety of second basemen instead.
Having their incumbent second baseman so willing and able to move to shortstop may ultimately provide much better options to the club this offseason.
Monday, November 30, 2009
Miguel Tejada to Red Sox?
At 35, Miguel Tejada is no longer the fearsome power hitter he once was.
And his range at shortstop may be slipping.
However, the free agent is still a skilled hitter; batting .313 with 199 hits last season.
So, Tejada may choose to market himself as a better alternative to third baseman such as Adrian Beltre, Mark DeRosa and Pedro Feliz.
One National League executive told Fox Sports that he could envision the Red Sox signing Tejada to a multiyear contract, with the idea that he would be their shortstop in 2010 and third baseman in 2011, after Mike Lowell departs as a free agent.
"If I was Boston, I'd have interest in Tejada," the official said. "He's a winning player. He inspires a team and makes you better."
At this stage of his career, facing declining skills, Tejada would likely have to take a pay cut from the $13 million annual salary he earned with the Astros this year.
Despite his offensive drop off, Tejada has averaged 15 home runs and 78 RBIs over the past three seasons.
Last season, Tejada hit 14 homers, with 46 doubles and 86 RBI.
But, Tejada will be 36 in May – the same age as Lowell. So, he will not assist the Red Sox in their goal of getting younger and more athletic at third and/or short.
And his range at shortstop may be slipping.
However, the free agent is still a skilled hitter; batting .313 with 199 hits last season.
So, Tejada may choose to market himself as a better alternative to third baseman such as Adrian Beltre, Mark DeRosa and Pedro Feliz.
One National League executive told Fox Sports that he could envision the Red Sox signing Tejada to a multiyear contract, with the idea that he would be their shortstop in 2010 and third baseman in 2011, after Mike Lowell departs as a free agent.
"If I was Boston, I'd have interest in Tejada," the official said. "He's a winning player. He inspires a team and makes you better."
At this stage of his career, facing declining skills, Tejada would likely have to take a pay cut from the $13 million annual salary he earned with the Astros this year.
Despite his offensive drop off, Tejada has averaged 15 home runs and 78 RBIs over the past three seasons.
Last season, Tejada hit 14 homers, with 46 doubles and 86 RBI.
But, Tejada will be 36 in May – the same age as Lowell. So, he will not assist the Red Sox in their goal of getting younger and more athletic at third and/or short.
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