Tuesday, September 30, 2008

SOX/ANGELS SERIES PREVIEW

Historically, the Red Sox have fared well against the Angels.

The Sox swept Orange County's favorite sons in the 2004 and 2007 AL Division Series, going on to win the World Series both times. So history is on their side.

But what does that matter? The past is behind us. This is a new season. The Angels should have tons of confidence based on their success against Boston in 2008; they absolutely owned the Sox this year, going 8-1. In fact, they owned everybody, finishing with an MLB-best 100 wins.

The playoffs are all about being simultaneously hot and healthy. The Angles were all banged up last year. They had a MASH unit taking the field against the Red Sox during the 2007 ALDS. It's a different story this year. This time it's the Sox who are all banged up.

Mike Lowell and JD Drew will either be absent or limited, at best. And as a result, the Sox will suffer from diminished offensive power.

Lowell had 17 HR and 73 RBI this season, in limited action due to two stints on the DL. His hip is in such bad shape that it will require offseason surgery. And if the Sox weren't in the playoffs, he'd probably be under the knife this week. That will have to wait, for at least a little while longer.

Drew has had just four at-bats since August 17. He's suffering from an aggravation of an old herniated disc injury. This season Drew stroked 19 HR and 64 RBI. His speed, defense, and hitting will be diminished, if not lost entirely.

The Sox will try to take up the slack by utilizing Mark Kotsay in right and Sean Casey at first. It probably won't help much; the pair combined for just six homers and 66 RBI this season -- that's just six more homers than Johnny Pesky. You get the point.

Then there's Josh Beckett and his strained oblique. Beckett is arguably the best big-game pitcher of his generation (6-2, 1.73, in nine starts), but this was a down year for him. He went from 20 wins in 2007, and a runner-up finish in the Cy Young balloting, to a 12-10 record with an ERA over 4 this year. That's solidly mediocre, and now he's hurt too. Beckett had his second-worst outing of the season on July 30 against the Angels, when he allowed eight runs in 5.1 innings of a 9-2 loss.

Meanwhile, Jon Lester (16-6, 3.21) looked like the staff ace this year, throwing a no-hitter, and leading the team with two complete games and 210 innings.

However, with a team-leading 18-3 record and 2.90 ERA, Daisuke Matsuzaka would seem to be a Cy Young candidate. Crazy stat: Opponents are 0-14 against him this season with the bases loaded.

The guy sure does whistle his way through the graveyard, doesn't he? He's got to be the sloppiest 18-game winner, sub-3 ERA pitcher, I've ever seen.

In last year's ALDS, Dice-K went just 4.2 innings, allowing seven hits, three walks and three runs, in a no-decision. His cumulative post-season pitching line looks like this: 2-1 (with 1 no decision), 5.03 ERA, 17 strike outs and 22 hits, in 19.2 innings over four starts.

The Angels hit .305 and averaged 6.8 runs in the nine regular-season meetings, while the Red Sox batted .252 and averaged 3.7 runs. Los Angeles' ERA was 3.60, Boston's was 6.23.

The bottom line is that Red Sox pitchers haven't fared well against the Angels this year; the Red Sox no longer have Manny Ramirez in the lineup; and two of their most potent and important remaining bats are questionable, at best. On top of that, the Angels have home field advantage.

It's for these reasons that I predict an Angles victory in the ALDS. After losing nine consecutive playoff games to the Red Sox, they're due to turn it around and come out on the winning end.

That said, I really hope I'm wrong.

Copyright © 2008 Sean M. Kennedy. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the author’s consent.

Wednesday, September 24, 2008

SOX MVP: PEDEY OR YOUK?

Over the past five years, with David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez carrying the bulk of the offensive load for the Red Sox (not just the stats, but the big, key hits as well), the team MVP was generally a toss up between either member of the Dynamic Duo.

But last year Mike Lowell had a career year and, with Ortiz injured and diminished for much of the year, Lowell picked up the slack and was undoubtedly the Sox’ MVP.

This season, Manny started strong, then had another of his annual mental meltdowns, forcing a trade. Ortiz was injured yet again, missing almost two months with a wrist problem. And Lowell has also been hobbled by injuries, doing two stints on the DL.

Into the void leapt Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis. Both players are having career years, and far exceeding any and all expectations.

Pedroia, presently second at .324, could win the A.L. batting title; Joe Mauer is currently the leader at .329. The Boston second baseman leads the league in runs scored (117), as well as leading the Majors in hits (208).

After winning the A.L. ROY in 2007, Pedroia has proven that he was just getting warmed up. This year he became the 23 rd player in the Red Sox storied 108-year history to record as many as 200 hits in a season. He is just the seventh Sox player to record at least 50 doubles in a season, and is now tied for third, at 53, with Tris Speaker (1912). And he is just the third to accomplish both feats (Speaker in 1912, and Wade Boggs in 1989).

Simply put, Pedroia is having the best season of any Sox second baseman—ever. The player who formerly held that distinction, Bobby Doerr, is in the Baseball Hall of Fame. Pedroia now holds the club record for hits, doubles, runs, extra-bases, and total bases by a second baseman.

Pedroia leads the Majors in hits (208) and doubles (53), is second in multi-hit games (58), first in the AL in runs, second in batting, fourth in total bases, and sixth in the AL in extra-base hits. That puts him in the top-ten in seven different offensive categories.

And on top of all that, he’s played stellar defense and prevented runs. He’s the total package.

And then there’s Youk.

In a season when the Sox usual (or expected) power-hitters and run producers (Ortiz. Lowell and JD Drew) have been slowed by injuries, on the DL, or simply dogging it (Manny), Youkilis has picked up the slack and delivered. The smooth-fielding first baseman has been a force and has carried the offensive load.

Youk is third in the AL in slugging, fourth in homers, fourth in OPS, fourth in extra-base hits, sixth in batting, sixth in OBP, seventh in doubles, eighth in multi-hit games, and ninth in total bases. That puts him in the top-ten in nine separate offensive categories.

Not only is he hitting .314—26 points higher than is carer average—he also has a career-best 27 HR and 111 RBI. With five games remaining, those numbers are already 11 HR and 28 RBI better than his previous bests. He has done more than the Sox ever could have hoped for or imagined. As stated, he is having a career year. He has finally arrived. His All Star selection and the gaudy numbers attest to it.

On top of all the offensive production, this year (extending from last) Youkilis set the MLB record for errorless chances and games by a first baseman. He has just four errors at first this year and should earn his second-consecutive Gold Glove Award.

Before the season began, the Bill James Handbook had these projections for the Sox young infielders:

Kevin Youkilis, 1B
Handbook projection:
Avg. - .290
HRs - 15
RBIs - 78
Runs - 89
BB - 84

Dustin Pedroia, 2B
Handbook projection:
Avg. - .300
HRs - 9
RBIs - 57
Runs - 77
2B - 40

As you can see, the pair have blown away the projections. They’ve both nearly doubled the anticipated home runs.

Who the team MVP is seems to be a toss up. League MVP Awards are generally given to players with eye-popping power numbers. Youkilis’ power numbers are certainly better than Pedroia’s. But Pedey is a diminutive second baseman from whom power is not expected. In fact, his 17 homers are shocking. And as much as Youkilis has exceeded expectations and projections, his power numbers are not beefy enough to win him the MVP.

If Pedroia finishes strong, wins the AL batting title, and leads the Majors in hits, doubles and multi-hit games, his other top-ten AL stats, his stellar defense, and the Sox entry to the playoffs could actually earn him the League MVP—or at last serious consideration.

For that reason, I’d say that Dustin Pedroia is the Red Sox 2008 MVP.

Copyright © 2008 Sean M. Kennedy. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the author's consent.

Sunday, September 14, 2008

PEDROIA'S STAR SHINES BRIGHTLY

This has truly been a remarkable year for Dustin Pedroia, who is setting the standard for Red Sox second baseman. Pedroia is the best Sox second baseman since the great Bobby Doerr, who is a member of the Hall of Fame.

After so many years with an ever-changing array of second-baseman each season, Pedroia is anchoring the position and adding some much-needed stability.

The position was anything but stable from 1999-2001, when Jose Offerman held the position, splitting time with Jeff Frye, Rey Sanchez, Mike Lansing, Lou Merloni and Chris Stynes along the way. Todd Walker had the reigns for just one year, 2003. Mark Belhorn held down the spot in ‘04, and split it with Tony Graffanino in ‘05. Then came Mark Loretta in ‘06, before Pedroia arrived last year.

And what an arrival it was. Pedroia's excellent play earned him the A.L. Rookie of the Year Award. But that was merely a hint at what he was truly capable of.

Pedroia now has 200 hits this season and is just the 23d player in club history to do so. Mo Vaughn was the last, when he hit 205 in 1998. What's more, Pedroia has also smacked 50 doubles this season, just the seventh Sox player to accomplish the feat. The only other Red Sox players to reach the combined marks were Hall of Famers Tris Speaker in 1912, and Wade Boggs in 1989.

Earlier this summer, Pedroia set the record for doubles and runs by as Sox second baseman, both previously held by Doerr. And his 69 extra-base hits this year are now tied with Doerr (1940) for the most by a Red Sox second baseman. Further, his 305 total bases broke Doerr’s second base club mark set in 1950.

The 25-year-old has also been a revelation in the field. as well as at the plate. Pedroia holds a .991 fielding percentage this season, and earned his first All Star selection do to his consistently excellent all-around play. We should get used to it; there will surely be many more Mid-Summer Classics in his future. Last year he made a name for himself, this year he became a star.

Pedroia's name will likely be listed throughout the Red Sox record book, and his legacy a part of fan lore, before his days in Boston are through. Get used to it, enjoy it, and be thankful that he's ours.


Red Sox players with 200-hit seasons (notice the striking absence of Ted Williams and Carl Yastrzemski):

Year Player Hits
1912 Tris Speaker 222
1934 Bill Werber 200
1938 Joe Vosmik 201
1940 Doc Cramer 200
1942 Johnny Pesky 205
1946 Johnny Pesky 208
1947 Johnny Pesky 207
1977 Jim Rice 206
1978 Jim Rice 213
1979 Jim Rice 201
1983 Wade Boggs 210
1984 Wade Boggs 203
1985 Wade Boggs 240
1985 Bill Buckner 201
1986 Wade Boggs 207
1986 Jim Rice 200
1987 Wade Boggs 200
1988 Wade Boggs 214
1989 Wade Boggs 205
1996 Mo Vaughn 207
1997 Nomar Garciaparra 209
1998 Mo Vaughn 205
2008 Dustin Pedroia 200

Red Sox players with 50-double seasons:

Earl Webb - 67 (1931) (MLB Record)
Nomar Garciaparra - 56 (2002)
Tris Speaker - 53 (1912)
David Ortiz - 52 (2007)
Nomar Garciaparra - 51 (2000)
Wade Boggs - 51 (1989)
Joe Cronin - 51 (1938)
Dustin Pedroia - 50 (2008)

Thursday, September 11, 2008

Red Sox MASH Unit

After winning the World Series in 2007, the Red Sox were certainly expected to contend again this year. Before the season began, many prognosticators even thought they had a very solid chance of repeating. But the strength and performance of a team is often directly related to the health of its players. And in that respect, the Red Sox have faced genuine adversity in their quest to repeat as Champions this year.

Case in point, before the season had even started, the Red Sox had lost their staff leader, Curt Schilling, for the year. Additional bad news was quick to follow.

The Sox suffered another blow in March when they lost their new ace, Josh Beckett, to the 15-day DL due to a lower back strain. Beckett, the appointed Opening Day starter, didn't even make the trip to Japan with his teammates. Yet another bit of adversity to start the season for the defending Champs.

But that wasn't all; the Sox have suffered multiple losses to the starting rotation this year. Clay Buchholz was lost to the 15-day disabled list with a broken nail on his right middle finger in May. Later that month, the Sox lost Daisuke Matsuzaka, their wins leader, to the DL due to a mild right rotator cuff strain. Then in June, Bartolo Colon was lost due to back stiffness. In August, Tim Wakefield went on 15-day DL because of posterior shoulder tightness. And, also in August, Beckett went back on the DL once again due to elbow inflammation that caused numbness and tingling in his hand.
But the trouble for Sox pitchers hasn't been relegated to just the starting rotation.

Mike Timlin, who began the season on the DL with a laceration on his right ring finger, went back on 15-day DL in June because of tendinitis in his left knee. And fellow reliever David Aardsma was lost to the DL in July with a right groin strain. That same injury put Aardsma back on the DL again this month. The Sox' shakey bullpen was already looking undermanned most of the year as it was.

And the offense and defense suffered their own losses as well.

Third baseman Mike Lowell also had two stints on the disabled list. He missed almost three weeks in April with a sprained left thumb, and then went on 15-day DL with oblique strain on August 13. The Sox really missed Lowell's leadership, steady defense, and offensive production. Yet they've managed to win without him.

The Sox also lost utility infielder Alex Cora to the 15-day DL in April with an elbow sprain to his throwing arm. Not good for a middle infielder. They lost backup first baseman Sean Casey to the DL that month with a hip strain. Now Casey finds himself back on the DL once again due to neck stiffness. And Julio Lugo went on 15-day DL on July 12 with quadriceps strain.
But perhaps the biggest blow to the Red Sox offense came when David Ortiz went on 15-day DL in June with wrist injury. Ortiz missed 45 games from May 31 to his reactivation on July 25.

That has amounted to 17 separate stints on the DL for 13 different players. It's taken its toll on the team. The Sox have paid a price for those losses, namely the division lead. But they are not just fighting to win the division; they are fighting for their playoff lives in a very tight Wild Card race. Who knows how many losses have resulted from the assorted injuries and missed time, but you can bet the Sox lost more games than they would have otherwise.

Injuries are part of the game. And the Red Sox have played the game pretty well, and contended, despite them.

There's been a lot of talk about the Yankees' disappointing season being the result of injuries. And there's also been a lot of talk about the Rays' success being all the more amazing due to the injuries to Evan Longoria, Carl Crawford and Troy Percival.

While that may be true in both cases, the Red Sox continued success - in the face of these extensive injuries - is quite remarkable itself.

Copyright © 2008 Sean M. Kennedy. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the author's consent.

Tuesday, September 09, 2008

SOX STREAK INTO HISTORY

The streak began in May of 2003. That year was a turning point in the history, and the fortunes, of the storied Olde Towne Team.. Red Sox fans obviously knew they were on to something -- a hot, competitive team -- when they launched a streak of 456 consecutive sellouts at Fenway Park, en route to a new MLB record.

That year, the Red Sox won 95 games for the first time since 1986 -- the last time they'd won the A.L. Pennant. Since 2003, they've never won fewer than 95 games. And in that frame, the Red Sox have, of course, won two World Series titles.

Red Sox fans were there to see all of the highlights in every game at Fenway along the way: a historic comeback against, and eventual defeat of, the Yankees in the 2004 ALCS; David Ortiz set the Red Sox single-season home run record; Dustin Pedroia win the AL Rookie of the Year Award; Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz pitch no-hitters before their 25th birthdays, and on and on.

It took Red Sox' fans the better part of six seasons to break the mark previously set by Cleveland Indians' fans between 1995-2001, a seven-season span. Sox fans were clearly rewarded for their patronage and passionate commitment. And the Red Sox organization was also rewarded -- both financially, and with the tremendous energy that results from a Fenway sellout.

The historic park is the not only baseball's oldest, but also it's smallest. With a fan-base that expects a competitive team each season, and a resulting payroll among the highest in baseball, that has resulted in the game's highest ticket prices.It makes the streak all the more impressive. But those high prices have resulted in rewards for attending fans; a consistently great team and the intimacy of Fenway.

Boston sports fans are among the most passionate and most committed in America. In fact, two of the top-six longest sellout streaks were set in Boston. Here's a look:

Pro Sports Longest Sellout Streaks

Number Team Years
744 Portland (NBA) 1977-1995
567 Boston (NBA) 1980-1995
515 Chicago (NBA) 1987-2000
456 Boston (MLB) 2003-2008
455 Cleveland (MLB) 1995-2001
407 Colorado (NHL) 1995-2006

The Red Sox amazing streak shows no sign of letting up and, with a likely playoff run this fall, should extend through next season and beyond. At about the midway point next year, the streak should surpass that of the Chicago Bulls. And early in the 2010 season, it should also hurtle past the Celtics mark, set over a 16-year period in the '80s and '90s.

Could the Portland Trailblazers' mark be broken by the Red Sox and their fans? It's entirely possible. That could happen during the 2012 season, the same year that the club will be celebrating its 100th anniversary at the legendary Fenway Park. Interest in the team, and the park, will likely be at an even more fevered pitch at that point, if that's even possible.

It makes you wonder how much more intense it can get? After all, there are only so many seats, and the team can only sell each of them once per game.

For some fans, who've never had the pleasure of attending Fenway, it's not enough.

Copyright © 2008 Sean M. Kennedy. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the author's consent.

Thursday, August 28, 2008

THE RIVALRY THAT WASN'T

Red Sox Close Final Chapter At Yankee Stadium Quite Fittingly

The Red Sox/Yankees much-heralded historic rivalry really hasn't been much a rivalry at all. The truth is, during the 86 years Yankee Stadium has been open, the Yankees have virtually owned the Red Sox, going 483-284-4 against the Sox at the venerated Stadium. And regardless of where the two teams played, the Yanks hold the edge with a 994-778 all time record.

And the Yankees 26 Championships are the most of any North American sports team. The Red Sox have won seven, and famously went 86 years between numbers 5 and 6. Since 1920, the Yankees have won 39 pennants while the Red Sox have won six. From 1920 through 2004 -- an 85-year span -- the Yankees finished with a better record 67 times. During this period, the Red Sox finished second in the standings to the Yankees 13 times.

The point is, it really hasn't been much of a rivalry at all, folks.

Since the inception of the ALDS and the Wild Card format, the two clubs have squared off in the ALCS three times ('99, '03, '04). The Yankees have won two of the three. They have also met in the last series of a season to decide the division winner three times. The Red Sox won in 1904, and the Yankees won in 1949 and 2005. So, it took the Red Sox 100 years to beat the Yankees in a title-clinching game.

And then, of course, there was 1978, when the Sox blew a 14.5-game lead they'd established over the Yanks in mid-July. The two teams wound up with with identical 99-63 records, resulting in a one-game playoff on the season's final day. Red Sox fans are all too familiar with the legend of Bucky "F*%&@*G" Dent, a shortstop with a grand total of 23 career homers over six previous seasons, who hit the game-winner into the screen above The Monster. With only four homers coming that season, he should have been called "Lucky."

The sad truth for Red Sox fans is that this supposed "rivalry" has resulted in many sad truths. The Yankees were almost always the better team, beating up on the Red Sox mercilessly, year after year, decade after decade.

The 2004 season changed the Red Sox' fortunes. Boston has now won two World Series Championships in this decade (or century, or millennium), and the Yankees have won none. It's a nice feeling for Sox fans to finally experience the view from the top. It's a spot previously reserved for just the Yankees. Which is why winning the final Series against the Yanks at the Stadium is so special.

As the record indicates, the "Bronx Zoo" has largely been a House of Horrors for the Red Sox. There have been few grand moments, the kind that are memorable to Sox fans for the right reasons. There was Pedro's 17-strike out, one-hit gem and, of course, Game-7 of the 2004 ALCS, which has got to be the single greatest moment on a very short list.

The Red Sox have had trouble in other team's ballparks all season, and hold a losing record of 34-37 on the road. But they have not lost a road series this month, winning four and splitting another. Beating on the Yankees is just the icing on the cake. The Sox are 16-8 since the July 31 trade deadline, when a certain dread-locked outfielder was shipped out of town.

The team's confidence has got to be sky-high right now. Embarrassing the Yankees in historic Yankee Stadium seems a fitting, if unexpected, send-off. The "House That Ruth Built" may be viewed as hallowed ground in the world of baseball. Yet it has been anything but sacred for the Red Sox. The Sox were the first opponent, and the first victim, in the inaugural game at Yankee Stadium on April 18, 1923.

For the Red Sox, trouncing the Yankees, winning their final series at the Stadium, and extinguishing any last hopes the Yanks had of making the playoffs, is quite fitting. It's what's referred to as "poetic justice."

Historically speaking, it's just the kind of thing one would expect the Yankees to be doing to the Red Sox. Oh, how the tables have turned since 2004.

Copyright © 2008 Sean M. Kennedy. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the author's consent.

Tuesday, August 26, 2008

FOR SOX, THERE'S MORE THAN HISTORY ON THE LINE IN BRONX

While there is the usual hype and interest in the upcoming Yankees/Red Sox series in New York, this one will be extraordinary.

This is the final season for the venerated Yankee Stadium and, as such, it will be the Red Sox final visit there.

The Sox were the Yankees very first opponent at the Stadium, on April 18, 1923. The Yankees won that game 4-1, just as they went on to win the vast majority of games between the two clubs over the ensuing 86 years. The Yanks have a 482-282-4 record against the Sox at Yankee Stadium. It's hardly a surprise; through last season, the Yankees had the best all-time regular season winning percentage in baseball at .567, the result of a 9383-7162 record.

But none of that really matters now. The Yankees appear to be all but out of the playoff hunt, and the Red Sox are fighting for their own playoff lives. Trailing Tampa by 4.5 games with 32 games to play, the Sox face a tall order in trying to win the AL East again.

As I wrote the other day, even Theo Epstein assumes that the Red Sox need to win at least 95 games each season to qualify for the playoffs. And that's for good reason; since 1997, no AL East winner has won fewer than 95 games, with the exception of the 2000 Yankees, who won 87. In fact, during that span, the division champ has averaged 99 wins.

At this point, considering Tampa's red hot and consistent play (79-50), the Sox may be fighting for the Wild Card spot, and it will be a battle, indeed.

Entering the three games series in New York, the Red Sox (75-55) currently hold a 1.5-game lead over Minnesota (74-57). But the Twins are clearly in the hunt for the AL Central crown, trailing the White Sox (75-66) by just one game. That means the Twins are closer to their division rival for the Central lead than they are to the Red Sox for the Wild Card.

Again, it will be a battle. The Red Sox, White Sox, and Twins will be checking the standings daily, and one very good team will not be playing in October.

The Red Sox need to win 20 of their remaining 32 games to reach 95. If they don't, you can bet the White Sox or Twin will. That means that the Red Sox - a team with a .577 winning percentage this season - need to win 64% of their remaining schedule.

That's the real reason this upcoming series in New York is so important. It's not history, or anything else.

Good luck to the Sox. As I said, it's a tall order.

Copyright © 2008 Sean M. Kennedy. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the author's consent.

Saturday, August 23, 2008

FOR BUCHHOLZ, A LONG, RAPID DESCENT

With injuries to Curt Schilling, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Bartolo Colon and Tim Wakefield this season, pressure mounted on the Red Sox organization and forced them to keep 23-year-old Clay Buchholz in the rotation long after he should have been sent down to the minors.

The most recent outing by the former "Can't Miss Kid," on August 20, was just the latest example of his long, yet rapid, demise. Buchholz surrendered five earned runs over just 2 1/3 innings. It was not an isolated incident. In fact, it was part of a months-long trend.

Over his last 10 appearances (nine of them starts), the former wunderkind pitched just 42 innings, giving up a whopping 43 runs on 62 hits and 27 walks. That amounted to a cumulative ERA of 9.21. Over that stretch, Buchholz went 0-7 while his ERA ballooned from 3.71 on May 2 to its current 6.75.

It's the kind of thing that could break the confidence of any veteran, much less a kid with just 18 career starts.

In fact, while calling the game last Wednesday night, analyst Jerry Remy spoke at length about Buccholz's lack of confidence and apparent desperation. The kid looked lost on the mound and seemed to be just as confused about his slide as everyone else. Standing on the rubber in a big league ballpark is a tough place for a young man to face that kind of uncertainty.

The sad reality that's played out before our unbelieving eyes is that Clay Buchholz is a mess. He can't help the Red Sox this year. Perhaps that should have been realized months ago. But the team has suffered numerous losses to its starting rotation and was forced to let Buchholz unravel out of sheer desperation. Clearly, the kid needs time to get his head straight in the minors, and during the offseason. A good pitching coach will have to work with him all winter to get things right and restore his beleaguered confidence. He'll be okay eventually, but not in time to help this year.

It was a case of too much, too soon. After his no-hitter against Baltimore last September -- in just his second Major League start -- everyone thought we were witnessing the emergence of the next Roger Clemens, another fellow Texan and former blue-chip Sox prospect. As of this moment, that expectation hasn't been realized. Hopefully it will in time.

Right now it's Portland. This winter, who knows? But being anywhere other than Boston, away from the outsized glare and spotlight of its rabid media and fans, should help. Boston is a place with enormous and unusual fan interest and expectations, and that pressure isn't well-suited for even many veterans. It's something the organization considers with every free agent or trade consideration.

Going away should give Buchholz the time he needs to figure things out and rediscover what it was that made the Red Sox so confident, and so excited, about him in the first place.

Copyright © 2008 Sean M. Kennedy. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the author's consent.

Thursday, August 21, 2008

BYRD WATCHING

Over 22 starts with the Indians this year, Paul Byrd went 7-10, with a 4.53 ERA. Those numbers, combined with the fact that Byrd is a free agent after this year, persuaded a disappointing and under-achieving Cleveland team to put him on waivers.

It was quite surprising that the veteran actually cleared waivers. Since no one claimed him, the Sox were subsequently able to strike a deal with the Indians.

But Red Sox fielders will be kept busy during Byrd's outings. The 37-year-old truly pitches to contact, and will rely on an excellent defense behind him to keep runs off the board.

In 138.1 innings this season, Byrd has given up 156 hits, to go along with 24 walks. Though the walk total is among the best in baseball (9th out of 98 big league pitchers), it still amounts to 180 baserunners over those 138.1 innings. That's worrisome. And Byrd is not a strike out pitcher, fanning just 56 batters this season. That amounts to just one K every 2 1/2 innings.

The stark reality is that Paul Byrd gives up more than a hit per inning and has a WHIP of 1.3. That's a lot of base-runners, and it's kind of scary.

All of this means that when Byrd is on the mound, the ball is often put in play. And that results in too many baserunners. And baserunners ultimately lead to runs. What's more, Byrd has allowed 25 HR, this season, tied for most in the AL.

So, you may ask, why did the Sox make a move for him? Well, there is an upside.

When the Sox acquired him, Byrd was tied for the most wins since the All Star break. Though he'd started the year poorly, Byrd had won all four of his starts since the break, with a 1.24 ERA. In each three of those starts he went at least seven innings, and he'd pitched his first complete game of the season in his final start with the Indians, a 4-2 win against Toronto, in which he out-dueled Jays ace Roy Halladay.

But in his first start with the Sox, Byrd went 7.1 innings, giving up four runs on 10 hits, and took the loss. Not exactly what the Sox were hoping for.

Interestingly, Byrd credits 287-game winner Bert Blyleven with helping him to rediscover his curve ball after a recent lesson. And it's that conversation to which he attributes his subsequent success.

In all, Byrd is a good, veteran pickup for the Sox, who obviously have no faith in Clay Buchholz, or in the health of Bartolo Colon.

Just hope the Sox play stellar defense whenever Byrd pitches over the remaining six weeks, and hopefully longer.

Copyright © 2008 Sean M. Kennedy. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the author's consent.

Wednesday, August 20, 2008

ELLSBURY THE THIEF

With two steals in last night's game Jacoby Ellsbury now has 40 thefts this season, moving him into a tie for 5th place on the club's single-season list. It's the eighth time the feat has been accomplished in team history, and Ellsbury is the sixth player to do it.

Here's a look at the leaders:

Rank Player Year SB

1 Tommy Harper 1973 54
2 Tris Speaker 1912 52
3 Tris Speaker 1913 46
4 Tris Speaker 1914 42
4 Otis Nixon 1994 42
5 Harry Hooper 1910 40
5 Billy Werber 1934 40
5 Jacoby Ellsbury 2008 40

As you can see, the Sox earned their reputation as a team that didn't steal many bases, going 20, 39, and 21 years without a 40-steal season from any player. And it had been 14 years since the last player, Otis Nixon, earned the distinction.

Ellsbury started the season strongly in the steals department, but then tapered off as he reached base less regularly. With Ellsbury's slow down, Tommy Harper's 35-year-old mark, once thought to be in jeopardy, looked like it would remain safe. But with six weeks to go, and just 15 more thefts needed to break the mark, it's certainly within the rookie's reach once again.

Tuesday, August 19, 2008

ACES HIGH

Quick. Guess who leads the Red Sox in wins this season? Josh Beckett? Wrong. That would be Daisuke Matsuzaka. Guess which starter leads the team in ERA? Beckett? Wrong again. That would also be Matsuzaka.

With a 14-2 record, and a 2.74 ERA, Matsuzaka is finally living up to the hype this year. But those are the sort results the Sox were expecting when they signed him to a six-year deal after the 2006 season.

But perhaps the biggest surprise this year has been Jon Lester.

By now we've all seen the highly impressive and well-publicized resume: just the third pitcher in World Series history to win a Series clincher in his first post-season start; a no-hitter at Fenway Park in May; a complete-game shutout at Yankee Stadium in July; and A.L. pitcher of the month for July, going 3-0 in four starts, in which he allowed just seven earned runs and lasted at least seven innings each outing.

After some early struggles this season, Lester has gone 9-1 since May 25. He is in the midst of a true breakout season, perhaps even surpassing the boldest expectations the organization had for him. The lefty has now made 16 quality starts, tying Tim Wakefield for the team lead.

And Lester, who famously recovered from cancer treatment, is now so strong that he leads the club with 167.2 innings, surpassing the 144.1 career innings he'd amassed coming into this season. The 24-year-old is giving up less than a hit an inning, and has yielded just 12 homers this year.

Most impressive of all, perhaps, is the fact that he's overcome his tendency to walk batters. The walks led to high pitch counts and early exits. The issue plagued his Major League development, right up until early this season. But over his last 10 starts, going back to June 22, Lester has not given up more than three free passes in any game. In fact, over that period the emerging star has averaged just 1.3 walks per game, a stellar figure. And in all but one (when he went five), Lester lasted at least seven innings.

The bottom line is that Lester is on his way to becoming an ace, if he isn't one already. One thing's for certain; he's become a stopper. In nine starts following a Red Sox loss this season, Lester is 5-1, with a 1.41 ERA, 14 walks, and 48 K's.

Lester has become a pitcher that manager Terry Francona can count on every fifth day. When he pitches, the Sox expect to win. Overall, the Washington native is now 12-4 this season, a stunning 75% winning percentage. And his 3.17 ERA is ninth in the A.L. For comparison's sake, Beckett is 11-9, with a 4.34 ERA.

Jon Lester may have gone from developing young left-hander to fully developed Major League pitching sensation. How much better he can get is anybody's guess, but that possibility has got to terrify opposing hitters. As it stands, they are only batting .258 against him.

Having Lester, Beckett and Matsuzaka anchoring the Red Sox staff over the next few years will make them perennial contenders, and the envy of the league.

Copyright © 2008 Sean M. Kennedy. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the author's consent.

Sunday, August 17, 2008

News & Notes

Varitek's Divorce Linked to Downward Spiral? Rookie Lowrie to Supplant Lugo Permanently? David Murphy, We Hardly Knew Ye, But We Miss You Already.

Jason Varitek filed for divorce on July 28. The Red Sox captain has been married to his wife Karen since 1996 and the couple has three daughters.

One has to wonder if that off-field drama is related to Varitek's abysmal plate performance this year. Personal turmoil of that sort has got to be a considerable distraction. Varitek entered today's game batting just .213 -- the third lowest average in the majors.

The veteran catcher turns 37 next April, and has clearly been in decline for a couple of years. But his at-bats have been just awful this year. The latest example came when he grounded into a double play in the fourth today, leaving the bases loaded.

According to Peter Gammons, the Sox have spent a half year looking for young catchers in other organizations in the event that Varitek gets a 3-or-4 year deal somewhere else this offseason. That kind of offer seems almost unimaginable at this point, given his age and rapid offensive decline.

The Sox have expressed interest in the Rangers' Jarrod Saltalamacchia, as well as Rangers' minor league catcher, Taylor Teagarden. The Sox are hoping to develop Mark Wagner so that he can supplant Varitek.

Pawtucket catcher George Kottars, who came over from San Diego in the David Wells trade, hasn't lived up to expectations, batting just .237 with 15 doubles and 64 RBI. However, his OBP is over 100 points higher (.341) and his 21 homers are third on the PawSox.

As of Wednesday, the average production of Major League catchers was a .251 average, with 10 homers and 52 RBIs.

If Varitek departs, the pickin's will be slim.


Jed Lowrie continues to impress. The shortstop hit yet another double today, his 14th of the season. Lowrie is proving himself to be a big league shortstop on a day-by-day basis, and although no one likes to see a player lose his job due to injury, Julio Lugo might not get his back in Boston.

Consider how the two Sox shortstops stack up:

Lowrie: 44 games, 14 doubles, 3 triples, 1 homer, 30 RBI, .318 Avg., .377 OBP, .492 Slg.

Lugo: 82 games, 13 doubles, 0 triples, 1 homer, 22 RBI, .268 Avg., .355 OBP, .330 Slg.

As you can see, Lowrie's stats are better -- in some cases much better -- in almost half as many games.

He's already won his manager's confidence.

"You bring a young kid up to play, and you basically hope that he makes the plays, and knows how to play the game, and things like that," said Terry Francona.

Management was hoping that Lowrie would be steady, show decent range, and make the routine plays. Just manage the position, and don't make any costly errors. Anything else he could do at the plate would be a bonus. Lowrie was hitting just .268 with the PawSox this season. But with the big league club he's since outperformed all reasonable expectations.

"All of a sudden, it seems like he's getting a big hit every time he comes up, and there seems to be men on base, and his production has been off the charts," said Francona. "So it's been a welcome addition. In maybe an area where you don't have a right to expect that much, it's been great."

Expect the Sox to shop Lugo this offseason with the anticipation of eating much of his remaining salary, two years at $9 mil per annum.


Former Sox prospect David Murphy is having a standout rookie season, leading A.L. rookies in RBIs, hits and doubles. All of that has made Murphy a leading candidate for Rookie of the Year. But after a recent collision with Pudge Rodriguez at the plate, he's expected to miss two-to-four weeks with a knee injury.

Murphy would have added some punch to the Sox offense this year as an every day outfielder. Coco Crisp, for all his defensive prowess, is still struggling to hit and his trade stock has totally plummeted. Crisp is batting a meager .247, with a .300 OBP, just 6 homers and only 29 RBI. Makes you wish he was included in the Eric Gagne deal instead.

Though Murphy is a corner outfielder, imagine JD Drew in center, with Murphy in right, and Jacoby Ellsbury as the utility outfielder playing all three positions. That would have given each of the three outfielders much-needed days off, with time to recover from back-to-back night/day games and time to rest and recuperate from nagging injuries as the grind of the season wears on.

The downside of the Gagne trade wasn't that he was a bust, it's that the Sox didn't get more for Murphy, Kason Gabbard and Engel Beltre, who may end up being the best player of them all.

One can only imagine now.

Copyright © 2008 Sean M. Kennedy. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the author's consent.

Thursday, August 14, 2008

MANNY'S DANGEROUS PRECEDENT

Since joining the Dodgers at the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline, Manny Ramirez has been going off. The ball must look like a beach ball to him right now. And NL pitchers look like Little Leaguers against him. Dodger fans are ecstatic. And why wouldn't they be. The Dodgers have a swagger that was absent pre-Manny, and they are winning right now. What's not to like?

The way Manny behaved in Boston, forcing a trade, that's what. And all fans of the sport -- or anyone who still values integrity, commitment, and honoring an agreement -- should be concerned.

Apparently baseball's "powers that be" share this concern. MLB has reportedly begun an investigation into Manny's final days in Boston. And there is plenty of reason to do so.

All of a sudden, Manny's allegedly ailing knee now seems pretty healthy, doesn't it? Add to that the fact that he and/or Scott Boras reportedly petitioned the Red Sox to stay in Boston after the trade was initiated. All he wanted was for his two option years dropped and he would behave. That's ransom, or blackmail, depending on how you view it.

Manny held the Red Sox hostage to his demands by dogging it, and not hustling to first base or in the outfield. It was also reported that he refused to board the team bus in Anaheim for the trip to the airport. When Manny finally arrived in Seattle, he suddenly started complaining about a sore knee. It seemed to come out of nowhere. But he never sought treatment from the team trainers. A subsequent MRI showed no injury or damage to either knee.

The truth had been revealed; Manny was a bullshitter, a quitter, and a crybaby whiner who put his personal interests first, ahead of those of his team. Not exactly what you'd call a team player.

But all of that came after he'd already slapped teammate Kevin Youkilis in the face in the dugout (caught on live TV), and pushed a 64-year-old traveling secretary to the ground because the older gentleman wasn't certain he could secure all 16 of the tickets Manny had requested for that evening's game in Houston. Apparently Manny never considered the fact that it was a road game, in a National League park, and that maybe some of his teammates might also want some of the limited available tickets. It didn't matter; Manny comes first in Manny's World. And apparently Manny, the multi-millionaire, also never heard of Stub Hub.

Manny signed an eight-year contract that gave the Red Sox control over him for an additional two years, at their option -- all while compensating him at the rate of $20 mil annually. Then he decided he wanted to change the terms of the agreement.

Scott Boras filled Manny's head with visions of a new four-year, $100 million pact. But that could only be secured if the Red Sox didn't pick up Manny's option in 2009. And since he'll be 37 next May, the clock was ticking on such a long-term deal. The question is, who will pay a guy nearing age 40 $25 million per year? Furthermore, Boras stood to have Manny on his client list for three years with no compensation if Manny didn't somehow get out of his deal. That's why dropping the two option years was a requisite to approving any trade, including the one that ultimately sent him to the Dodgers.

This whole charade is so obvious. And the whole thing really stinks. There's a foul smell in the world of baseball, and the stench could affect the very heart and integrity of a great game.

MLB has got to show some backbone and issue some sort of punishment to both Ramirez and Boras. An awful precedent has now been established, and it could serve as the template for any disgruntled players that want to get out of their contracts and hit the open market. That's now a distinct possibility and that outcome is very disturbing.

American society lives by the rule of law; contractual obligations must be upheld. They are important, even critical, agreements between parties. Manny's actions turn this whole notion on its head. If you don't like your contract, act up and force your way out. That's supposed to be illegal. And the insane thing is that -- as opposed to the vast majority of personal contracts and obligations that most Americans will ever sign or hold -- this one called for the guy in question to be paid $20 mil annually!! And it wasn't good enough for him!! How much more out-of-touch can one man be?

MLB needs to take action and come down hard. And hopefully the rest of baseball will come together collectively and not reward Ramirez for his poor behavior. Cancers should be cut out, not fed.

Manny expects to be paid $25 million annually in the years that he will be 39 and 40. Please, let sanity -- and justice -- prevail.

Copyright © 2008 Sean M. Kennedy. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the author's consent.

Tuesday, August 12, 2008

ZINK'S START AMOUNTS TO AN AUDITION

This is More Than Just a Spot Start for the Minor League Veteran

Tonight's start for Red Sox prospect Charlie Zink could prove to be be an audition for something bigger.

In 25 games with Pawtucket this season, the knuckleballer is 13-4 with a 2.89 ERA, third in the International League. Though he'll be 29 later this month, he's young for a knuckleballer and finally looks Major League ready. With his experience and success this season, he'll be a candidate for someone's rotation next year. Tonight's start could well be a showcase for other clubs.

Tim Wakefield is suffering the same injury that sidelined him last year, and you have to wonder if, at age 42, this puts his career in jeopardy. The Sox don't want two knuckleballers in their rotation but, one way or another, Wake will retire sooner than later. Depending on the veteran's health, that could make Zink a candidate for the rotation in '09.

There aren't many guys throwing the knuckleball in the modern game; Wakefield was the only knuckleballer on any Opening Day Major League roster. And Zink was one of just three knuckleballers pitching at the Triple A level to begin the season.

It's been a long and winding road for the California native. Though undrafted (he had to try out for a low minors spot), Zink has been with the organization since 2002. As a middle reliever, he lead the staff with a 1.68 ERA in his first season, and by 2003 he was the only Sox prospect ranked in the top-50 by Baseball Prospectus. That was after he learned to throw the knuckleball.

But then Zink tumbled in 2004, going an abysmal 1-10, and dealt with a demotion from Portland to Single A Sarasota. That year and the next, he struggled with far too many walks and home runs allowed. His development had gone backwards and his train to the Bigs had gone off the tracks.

Yet Zink bounced back to lead Pawtucket in wins in 2006. However, he was still demoted to Portland in 2007, where he made the Eastern League All-Star team.

Aided and encouraged by Wakefield, who gave Zink advice on his motion, stride and delivery, Zink put in the hard work that, matched with an indomitable spirit, has finally paid off.

He's improved on his 11-6, 4.63 numbers from last year (split between Portland and Pawtucket), and has been one of the PawSox top pitchers this season, leading the team in wins and ERA.

This is Zink's seventh season, the last year under Boston's control. If he does not remain on the team's 40-man roster, he will become a minor league free agent at year's end, meaning he will be free to sign with anyone.

Surely he has value at this point. Surely the Sox would like to get some compensation for him rather than just letting him walk and sign with another team.

It's a good bet that Charlie Zink will be on some Big League club's Opening Day roster next season, be it the Red Sox or another team.

Saturday, August 02, 2008

Post-Manny Era Shaping up Nicely in Boston

Leading up to Thursday’s trade deadline, it was clear that the Red Sox needed a shake up. They were in a funk.

The other Red Sox players had grown tired of Manny Ramirez’s act. Lower paid teammates don’t like prima donnas who get special treatment. And Manny was already treated pretty differently anyway—he got paid a hell of a lot more money than the rest. That’s one of the reasons the Red Sox didn’t bring Pedro back. He played by his own set of rules—just like Manny.

And Sox management may have felt even more compelled to act as they watched rival A.L. teams rapidly improve with wise deals.

The Angels had already proven themselves a better team—even before they got Mark Texiera. And after acquiring Xavier Nady and lefty Damaso Marte, the Yankees then acquired Pudge Rodriguez in another trade. Both franchises had upgraded their ball clubs while the Sox stood pat. The Yankee moves, in particular, made Brian Cashman look like a genius.

So when the Angels, who had just swept the Sox in consecutive series, landed the best player available, the A.L.’s best team got even better. That, coupled with the Yanks’ bold moves, made the Sox feel compelled to do something. They simply had to act after losing eight of twelve games after the break. The team looked flat, as if Ramirez had completely drained them.

Indeed, Manny forced the Sox' hand. The relationship was way beyond repair.

The current ownership/management group didn’t sign him and never liked his massive, long-term contract. They had wanted to be free of it, and him, for quite some time. Jason Bay for Manny, straight up, was not an even trade. It showed just how much the Sox wanted to rid themselves of Manny.

But Bay has certainly given a fine accounting of himself in his first two games in Boston, reaching base safely in six of his first 11 at-bats, including a triple, a homer, four runs, and three RBI.

And how about this contrast in the first game of the Post-Manny Era:

Jason Bay reached base safely four times, including a triple in the bottom of the 12th, ultimately scoring the winning run.

Meanwhile, the Dodgers ninth-inning rally fizzled when Manny grounded into a double play during a 2-1 defeat against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Dodger Stadium.

Poetic justice? Perhaps. An omen of things to come in Boston? We can only hope.

So far, the Post-Manny Era isn’t shaping up too badly for the Red Sox after all.

Copyright © 2008 Sean M. Kennedy. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the author's consent.

Thursday, July 31, 2008

Addition Through Subtraction?

Will Manny's Absence Really Make the Sox Better?

By most accounts, the three-way deal between the Red Sox, Marlins and Pirates died because the Sox felt that the Marlins and Pirates were asking for too much. Boston simply felt like they were being held hostage and squeezed in the Manny Ramirez negotiations.

Despite the Red Sox' willingness to give up a future Hall of Famer who is having another All Star season, and the fact that they were wiling to pick up all of his remaining 2008 salary, the Marlins and Pirates actually wanted the Sox to sweeten the pot even further with prospects and/or cash. Obviously, both clubs thought they could hold a desperate Red Sox club over the proverbial barrel. Incredibly, the Marlins were in a position to acquire a $20 million superstar and still make money on the deal. Yet, it wasn't enough.

So the Dodgers stepped in. They sent third baseman Andy Laroche -- a player who hit .226 in 35 games last year, and who is hitting just .203 in 27 games this year -- along with minor league pitcher Bryan Morris in exchange for the great Manny Ramirez. Oh yeah, and the Sox will be paying Manny to play for the Dodgers for the rest of the year. What a deal -- what a steal -- for the Dodgers.

To obtaIn left fielder Jason Bay from Pittsburgh, the Red Sox not only parted with the All Star and future Hall of Famer Ramirez, but in addition they also sent outfielder Brandon Moss and reliever Craig Hansen to Pittsburgh. Oh, and did I mention the fact that the Red Sox will also be paying Manny to play for the Dodgers?

This move reeks of desperation. The Red Sox acted out of emotion and a burning desire to rid themselves of Manny Ramirez. That's how bad the relationship had become.

That sense of desperation has resulted in a rather uneven swap. Undoubtedly, it's yet to be determined if this was ultimately the best move for the Red Sox. But one has to ask; is this really the best they could do? And that's for one simple reason; they probably aren't a better team -- at least on paper -- after this trade. Jason Bay is a very good player, but he's no Manny Ramirez. Despite Manny's mental and emotional deficiencies, and as much of a headache as he was to John Henry, Theo Epstein and co., he's still a very good hitter. His best years may be behind him, but he's still a threat to opposing pitchers at this moment.

It's easy to assume that there were some bad vibes in the Sox clubhouse; some players were said to be fed up with Manny, while others still publicly supported him. That's to be expected on a veteran club. Obviously the sentiment was bad enough to force the Red Sox to act. Veteran players were surely consulted about the effect Manny was having on the team. The Sox recent performances speak volumes; this was a highly distracted ball club. Terry Francona is said to have lost 15 pounds in recent weeks as the stress mounted.

But everyone had seen this movie before; Manny usually got over his emotional outbursts and played well. During past disputes/trade demands, there were still years remaining on his contract. This time it was just months. Yet, the Sox had no faith that, in little time remaining in the "Manny Era," they could actually count on him. He had quit on his teammates two years ago, and he did it again this month. He was temperamental, moody and unpredictable. For management it was enough to consummate a lopsided trade.

Obviously, every other A.L. team was hoping this deal would go through, and surely they are all celebrating this evening. A Red Sox team that's already looked suspect since the break, going 4-8, may have grown even weaker. Time will tell.

Yes, Bay is younger and cheaper, but he's not better than Ramirez. Cheaper doesn't matter to the Sox; they can afford any price tag. And they could have addressed left field and gotten younger in the offseason. As much of a prima donna, malcontent, "me first" player as Manny is, losing his presence in the lineup could hurt the Sox down the stretch. He provided protection for Big Papi in the batting order. That lineup will now be shuffled in a way it hasn't for years. Ortiz and Ramirez were married in the lineup and were the game's most lethal combo for the past six seasons.

Furthermore, putting a small-market-type player, like Bay, in the glare of the Boston spotlight and asking him to fill Manny's rather large shoes amounts to enormous pressure. Many players would wilt under such expectations. We can only hope that Bay is not one of them. He has never played in the post-season before. Baseball is an afterthought in Pittsburgh, and there is no pressure in playing there. No one expects the Pirates to win, or for Pirates' players to perform at the highest level. It's a perfect environment for the young Moss and Hansen. Perhaps they will thrive there.

For all the comparisons to the historic Nomar Garciaparra trade, Nomar was a faded star when the Sox dealt him in July of 2004. At the time he had just 7 doubles, 5 homers, and 21 RBI. If Manny had those sort of numbers, there wouldn't be nearly the same concern about the Red Sox losing him.

Here's how Ramirez and Bay stack up:

Ramirez: BA .299, HR 20, RBI 68, OBP .398, Slugging .590

Bay: BA .282, HR 22, RBI 64, OBP .375, Slugging .515

Yes, the numbers are quite similar. But.hanging on to Manny Ramirez would given the Red Sox a better chance of getting to the post-season and of winning. He has a history of being a clutch hitter the playoffs, as well as the World Series. The Sox could have picked up his option in November and then traded him. Manny had no leverage in this matter. He put himself at the Red Sox' mercy when he agreed to that contract in December 2000. Now he's gotten the leverage and control he wanted by forcing the Sox to move him at such a steep price. Keeping Manny would have given the Sox the opportunity to find the best possible trade partner in the offseason, with the luxury of more suitors and more time. This was clearly a rash decision made under duress and in a limited time frame. Not ideal circumstances for making a critical decision.

At this point in his career, Manny is a 30-homer, 100 RBI player -- not the monster hitting machine he was in years past. There are other players of similar calibre available at a much lower cost. That fact, in addition to Manny's attitude and antics, might have dissuaded potential trade partners this winter. It's very telling that the Sox found it so difficult to interest anyone in taking him today -- even though they were willing to eat the remainder of his 2008 salary.

Paying Manny to play for the Dodgers for the rest of the season, plus paying Jason Bay's salary this year and next, will still amount to less than the $20 million that the Sox would have owed Ramirez in 2009 had they exercised their option on him. Surely, that was part of their rationale.

Apparently, owner John Henry was the most hesitant to trade Ramirez. He felt that the Sox could not get sufficient value in return and that Manny would give the team the best chance of winning. After all, the Sox had been down this road with their savant slugger before, and it had worked out pretty well for them.

But the need to restore sanity in the clubhouse prevailed. Management believed that its very integrity was at stake. Manny had been treated differently than his teammates for far too long. There were the "Manny Rules," and then there were the rules that everyone else had to abide by. That sort of thing is like a cancer, and it undermines team unity and harmony. And for that reason, Manny had to go.

Excluding this season, Manny had already made $143,328,346 in his career. And yet he is still worried about things like money, respect, and "peace." The Red Sox will no longer have to put up with the headache that is Manny Ramirez. And they can only hope they are better without him than with him. The next two months will be a revelation.

It was inevitable; Manny's time with the Red Sox had to come to an end. It just came sooner, rather than later.

Copyright © 2008 Sean M. Kennedy. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the author's consent.

Tuesday, July 29, 2008

BEWARE THE MIDDLE RELIEVERS

Ron Mahay, Geoff Geary, Huston Street and other middle relivers being discussed as possible trade bait. We should all be concerned.

Middle relievers are the worst bunch; not good enough to start and not good enough to close. They seem to be up and down each year and change teams often. Good with one team, bad with the next. Good one year, bad the next. Yet there is a premium on their services (as much as they rarely deserve it) to bridge the gap between the starters and the closer.

Modern starters are six-inning pitchers. It's sad. The game has changed so much. Roy Halladay leads the Majors with seven complete games this year, and five others are tied at three. Contemporary starters have it easy compared to their predecessors. And contemporary closers have a chance to ring up the saves in a way that their predecessors never had.

No one expects a starter to be perfect every inning -- even the ace. If he gives up a couple of runs in an inning, it's probably manageable and not devastating. We tend to look at the big picture; their performance over six or seven innings, not just one.

That's the tough part about being a middle reliever. You only get one inning -- at best. Every pitch and every out is huge, and every run is magnified way beyond that of the starers. It's a thankless job.

That said, most of them are still pathetic. Let's hope the Red Sox don't do anything regrettable. Remember Larry Andersen? Remember Eric Gag-me?

Need I say more?

Copyright © 2008 Sean M. Kennedy. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the author's consent.

Saturday, July 26, 2008

DON'T LET THE DOOR HIT YOU ON THE ASS, MANNY



It's more than just his numbers; I've always been a fan of Manny Ramirez. You could call me a Manny supporter. The guy makes me laugh. He seems to possess the simplicity of a child. He's goofy. He's wacky. He has his own strange way of viewing the world. He's simply carefree and unburdened. 

Hitting slump? "Don't worry about it," Many would intone. And sure enough, he'd come around, as always. 

For all his misadventures in left field, and there have been many (none more obvious, or gruesome, as the one in Anaheim last weekend), Manny is actually an underrated fielder -- especially at Fenway, where he really knows how to play the wall. He has a great arm and a quick release, and he always seems to be among league leaders in outfield assists. How many base runners have tested Manny by trying to take second only to find themselves sitting in the dugout moments later? 

The catch, high-five, and relay for a double play in Baltimore is one of my favorite plays -- ever. Baseball, after all, is a game and it should be fun. And no one seems to have more fun than Manny Ramirez. 

But there's a difference between a carefree attitude and indifference. There's a difference between having fun and showing disrespect for your manager, your coaches, your teammates, the owners who pay your salary, and the fans who support you. Manny Ramirez has crossed that line. 

Pushing 64-year-old traveling secretary Jack McCormick to the ground in Houston over a ticket allotment is way over the line. Pissing and moaning about a contract extension when you are in the eighth year of a $160 milion contract is over the line. Countless Red Sox fans of average means have to pay the highest ticket prices in baseball to help pay that monster salary. Quitting on your team in September 2006 was over the line, Manny. I didn't buy that "bad knee" story then, and I don't buy it now either. I call bullshit. 

"Manny being Manny" was cute when he was doing something innocently odd and amusing to the point of being charming. Going inside the Monster during a pitching change was cute, at first. But now it's grown old. Been there, done that. It's old news. Just like the repeated trade demands got old. The E-Bay grill and the classic car auction affairs -- who cares? 

I'm more concerned about a guy who forgets Little League fundamentals and who doesn't care enough to run hard to first on infield grounders. What an an example; the highest paid player, the star, who won't hustle and who shows no fire, no passion. 

Isn't that the issue? Manny is always so nonchalant. He has that Alfred E. Neuman, "What, me worry?" quality that can be maddening. In fact he says it all the time; "Don't worry about it." It's arrogance, pure and simple. It's an attitude that says, I'm different. I'm special. I'm better than the others. I play by my own set of rules. It's the worst kind of attitude a teammate can have because it isn't the attitude of a true team player. With Manny it's always "Me First." But as the old saying goes, there's no "I" in team. 

The Man Child behaves like a child. He is juvenile and often petulant. Bailing on his teammates during a pennant race was disgraceful the first time. It is disgusting and unforgivable this time. 

Manny doesn't get it. He the center of his own universe. He lives in Manny Land -- population 1. But he is an aging star who is clearly in decline. Want to bet he won't knock in 100 runs again this year? There was a time when Manny routinely had a slugging percentage over .600, but this year it's .530. Not bad, but not what it once was. 

Manny will be 37 early next season. I'm assuming -- I'm hoping -- that the Red Sox will read the writing on the wall and move on from Manny and look to the future. That $40 million, two-year, club option could be better spent elsewhere. 

Thanks for the funny, kooky moments, Manny (my favorite was cutting off Johnny Damon's throw at about 20 feet -- absolutely hilarious!). And thanks for your contributions to two World Series teams. For all of that, thank you. 

But don't let the door hit you on the ass on your way out of Boston this winter. 

Copyright © 2008 Sean M. Kennedy. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the author's consent.

Wednesday, July 23, 2008

THE ROAD WORRIERS

The good news is that the Red Sox have won two games in a row—on the road, no less. Unfortunately, that has been the exception. Losing on the road has become rather customary. The three-game sweep at the hands of the Angels over the weekend, though embarrassing, was hardly unusual or unexpected to anyone paying attention. The last time the Sox won a series on the road was June 16-18, when they took two out of three in Philly.

The Red Sox are now 59-43 -- sixteen games over .500. And that is largely due to their exceptional 36-11 record at Fenway Park. The club’s 77% home winning percentage is the best in baseball. But on the road, it’s another story entirely.

Away from Fenway, the Sox are 23-32, or nine games below .500. This deficiency is hard to figure since they lead the league in on-base percentage (.338) and slugging percentage (.425) in road games.

For whatever reason, when they are not in the comfy confines of Ye Ole Ballpark, the Red Sox manage to win just 42% of the time. That’s a clear indication that they need to win the AL East and gain home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. Tampa Bay may fade down the stretch, but they’re not going away quickly or quietly. They have shown they won’t go down without a fight. The Rays have depth and will be buyers, not sellers, in the deadline trade market for the firs time.

And the Yankees aren’t dead yet. Aren’t they just like Freddy Krueger or Jason Voorhees? Just when you think they’re dead... With the trade deadline just over a week away, expect them to act. Loudmouth Hank would have it no other way. He’s got to prove himself as he hopelessly tries to live up to Daddy’s image and history.

Coming out of the All Star break, 49 of the Red Sox final 59 games are in the Eastern Time Zone. That will help the Sox. The Yankees, on the other hand, play 24 of their first 27 games after break against teams with winning records. That should hurt the Yanks. And the Rays have 12 games in 17 days during September against the Red Sox and Yankees. That will ultimately prove whether or not they are truly a playoff team.

Meanwhile, the Angels, at 61-39, have the best record in baseball. And after the way they handled the Sox in Anaheim, the Halos look like they are indeed the best AL team at this moment. We’ll see what happens in October. The month hasn’t been very good to them in recent years.

Notes......

- How happy are you that Julio “The $9 Million Man” is out of the lineup? What a relief!

The guy is a total rally killer with a penchant for grounding into double plays. He was batting a meager .268 this year, an improvement over the anemic .237 he posted last year. And his RBI (22) and home run (1) production were also way down this year. He was on pace for just 24 extra-base hits, which would have been his lowest total of any full season in his big league career, and he was the team’s worst hitter with runners in scoring position (.139, 11 for 79). As I said, rally killer.

And then there’s the other crucial element to the game—fielding, which he’s not very good at. Lugo’s 16 errors were the most by a shortstop in the American League and tied Florida’s Hanley Ramírez for most in the majors. His .945 fielding percentage was the lowest among major league shortstops. Please, Julio.... don’t come back!

It will be nice to see Jed Lowrie play every day and find out if he is indeed the “shortstop of the future.” You know, the guy we’ve been waiting for since this same time four years ago. Thought we had him in Orlando Cabrerra, but that’s another story.

- Daisuke Matsuzaka has given up just three runs in his last 30 2/3 innings. Only twice in 17 starts has he allowed more than three runs, resulting in an impressive 2.63 ERA and 11-1 record this season. Opponents are 0-for-11 this season with the bases loaded against Matsuzaka.

- The best deadline pickup for the Red Sox would be the return of slugger David Ortiz, who leads the club with 297 RBI over the last three seasons. Mike Lowell is second with 257, and Manny Ramirez is third with 214.

- Though the All Star break is ostensibly the season’s halfway point, the Red Sox had already played 97 games, meaning that there were just 65 games remaining in the season’s “second half.”

Copyright © 2008 Sean M. Kennedy. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the author's consent.

Sunday, July 13, 2008

PAPELBON CHASING HISTORY

YOUNG CLOSER MOVING IN ON CLUB'S ALL TIME SAVES MARK

In just his third season as the Red Sox closer, Jonathan Papelbon is already poised to make Sox history. With his 28th save in 32 chances on Sunday, Papelbon became just the third Red Sox reliever to record 100 career saves. And in the coming weeks, Papelbon will move into second place on the team's all-time saves list.

Papelbon got his 100th save in his 176th career appearance. The only American League pitcher with more saves in his first 176 outings is Kazuhiro Sasaki, who had 111 with Seattle in that period. Sasaki got his 100th save in his 160th game.

"One hundred down, I guess three or four hundred more to go," said the Louisiana native after the game.

Possessing a fastball that has been clocked at 99 miles per hour, plus a nasty split and changeup, Papelbon is arguably the game's premier closer right now. Surely, he is the best closer most Sox fans have ever seen in Boston. Perhaps that's because he is. The affable hurler began the season in seventh place on the club's all-time saves list. But during the season's first half, Papelbon has leap-frogged past Derek Lowe, Jeff Reardon and Ellis Kinder, in succession.

But here's what's truly impressive; Papelbon will soon surpass Dick Radatz (104) and become #2 on the team's all time saves list -- in just his third year in the Majors. And it's worth noting that he missed the final month of the 2006 campaign, despite this impressive achievement.

Though he's averaged 36 saves over the last two seasons, Papelbon is currently on pace for 45-50 this year. It's a pace unmatched in team history. In fact, Papelbon is the first Boston pitcher to ever have two 30-save seasons, and he did it in back-to-back years. What's more, he's almost reached 30 already this season, and it's only the All Star break.

The club's all-time saves leader is Bob "The Steamer" Stanley, who amassed 132 career saves over 13 seasons with the Sox. Though Stanley has held the team record since retiring in 1989, at this point he is not long for that distinction. If history is a guide, Papebon will become the new Red Sox all-time saves leader before the conclusion of the 2009 season.

That would be an incredible feat, considering that it would only be his fourth season in the role of closer.

Papelbon is at the top of his game and says that he feels stronger than ever before. And he got the confidence to match. It can be seen each time he takes the mound. A fierce competitor with a bulldog mentality, the young righty is absolutely dominating and inspires fear in the hearts of opposing batters. For most, just making contact probably feels like an accomplishment. Papelbon went the entire month of April without walking a batter, and has granted just seven free passes all season. That coincides with 51 strike outs in just 40 2/3 innings.

Only three Red Sox closers have notched at least 40 saves in a season; Reardon, Ugueth Urbina, Lowe, and Tom Gordon, who had a club-record 46 saves in 1998. Papelbon is currently on pace to break that record by season's end.

The young phenom is both respected and feared throughout the baseball, and every team would rather have him than have to face him. The organization did a great job grooming him, and have the good fortunate of having the three-time All Star under their control for the next few years.

The numbers just keep piling up, and with each additional save Papelbon continues to stake his place in the Red Sox' storied history.

Copyright © 2008 Sean M. Kennedy. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the author's consent.