The Red Sox released Kottaras today. The 26-year-old catcher was out of options and couldn't be sent to the minors again.
Kottaras hit .237 last season in only 93 at-bats, an exceptionally small sample size.
Playing once a week as Tim Wakefield's personal catcher gave him no chance to develop a rhythm and prove himself.
Then Kottaras was placed on the disabled list on August 2, after suffering back spasms.
That happened to coincide with Wakefield going on the DL and the arrival of Victor Martinez. In truth, it was more than coincidence; the club needed to make room on the 25-man roster.
And that's what Kottaras was up against again this time; not enough room on the 40-man roster.
It's still unclear how Kottaras would fare over a full season at the Major League level, and what kind of hitter he might yet become. The scouting report on Kottaras notes that he has "20-home run power potential and good plate discipline," and that he is a "hard worker."
Kottaras will likely find a job elsewhere, as catchers are in short supply at the Major League level.
If you remember, Kottaras was the player the Sox got from the Padres in exchange for David Wells. Kottaras was highly regarded in the Padres' system, and the Red Sox thought they were getting the catcher of the future, the heir apparent to Jason Varitek.
It's doubtful that Kottaras' release will change the Sox interest in any catcher outside the organization this year. They've already got $10M invested in two catchers (Martinez and Varitek) for the 2010 season.
If they need a third catcher, they'll turn to either Dusty Brown or Mark Wagner, who are already in their system.
Wednesday, November 18, 2009
Thursday, November 12, 2009
Red Sox Mistakes: Goodbye Johnny Damon, Hello JD Drew
At the end of the 2005 season, Johnny Damon's agent, Scott Boras, was seeking a seven-year contract valued at $84 million for his client. That amounted to an average annual salary of $12 million.
However, Red Sox officials (absent then departed GM Theo Epstein) made the strategic decision that Damon was not worth more than $40 million over four seasons. That was their best offer.
But the Yankees placed a higher value on Damon. They had no qualms with the annual salary; they just made a shorter-term offer of four-years, $52 million.
At the time, Damon was 32 and had just completed his tenth consecutive season of playing in at least 145 games. He was the picture of consistency.
Yet the Red Sox, sticking to their formula of placing a value on a player and not going over that limit, made what turned out to be a lowball offer. Despite whatever affinity they had for Damon, they weren't about to let emotion get in the way.
Their view was that Damon was an aging player, with a poor throwing arm, who would begin breaking down. But he was exceptionally popular with the fans, and they had to at least make an offer for PR purposes. In retrospect, it seems that the Red Sox just didn't really value Damon after all.
However, it turned out that the Yankees got plenty of value for their investment in the durable and consistent outfielder. Over four years in the Bronx, Damon's numbers are strikingly similar to those in his four years with Boston.
Damon played in 576 games with the Yanks, almost the same as the 597 he played in his four seasons with the Red Sox. He has exactly the same .362 OBP in both NY and Boston. He has 21 more Yankee homers and three more Red Sox RBIs. He has 5 more Sox stolen bases and the same 21 times caught stealing. His Red Sox batting average was 10 points higher, but his Yankee slugging average is 17 points higher.
But the year after letting Damon defect to their arch rival, the Red Sox did something very strange; they made a 5-year, $70 million offer to JD Drew that raised eyebrows throughout the sport. At the time, Drew was 31 and had played in as many as 140 games just twice in his eight full seasons in the Majors.
But he was praised for his perfect swing, his intangibles, and his "potential."
After three years in Boston, we're still waiting for all of that to materialize.
Over the last three years of a contract during which Red Sox officials believed Damon would be overpaid, Damon has more hits (467 to 355), runs scored (295 to 247) and RBIs (216 to 196), than Drew. And Damon has a nearly identical home run total (53 to 54).
Yet, Drew has made an average of $1 million more per season (Drew: $14 million, Damon: $13 million) and is signed for two more years. Damon, on the other hand, is now a free agent.
If the Red Sox had signed him to the same deal the Yankees offered, they would be out from under that contract right now. But considering his high level of play, Damon will once again be sought after.
Drew, on the other hand, is still under contract for two more years.
It's worth noting that the Red Sox rank 13th among the 14 American League teams in on-base percentage from the leadoff spot since Damon departed. Damon eventually became the no. 2 hitter for the Yankees, but he certainly would have been the ideal solution for the Red Sox in the three years prior to the ascension of Jacoby Ellsbury.
Despite the lack of faith by Sox brass, Damon had yet another productive season this year, hitting .282, with 155 hits, 24 home runs and 82 RBIs. His 107 runs were tied for fourth in the AL. Damon also had a healthy .365 on-base percentage.
And it was the 14th season in a row in which Damon played at least 140 games, a testament to his durability. The only players who have done that more frequently are Hank Aaron, Brooks Robinson and Pete Rose (16 straight years) and Willie Mays (15).
On the other hand, Drew has played in 140 games in just one season for the Red Sox. And over the course of his 11-year career, Drew has averaged just 121 games per season.
This year, Drew batted .279, had 126 hits, 24 HR, 68 RBI and scored 84 runs,. If Red Sox fans weren't certain three years ago, they now know that Drew is not a premier hitter or run producer.
Drew reached 20 homers this year for just the fourth time in his career, but the first since 2006 when he was with the Dodgers. However, he has yet to drive in 100 runs, score 100 runs, or hit .300 as a member of the Red Sox.
Theo Epstein defends Drew by talking up his .879 OPS as a member of the Red Sox. But it's important to remember that Drew was brought to Boston to be a heart-of-the-order, no. 5 hitter.
Drew is a corner outfielder; and was not signed to simply get on base. Drawing walks is not the job of a no. 5 hitter. That job is to produce, to drive in runs.
Yet Drew does not do this particularly well; he has driven in 100 runs just once in his career, as a member of the Dodgers. Drawing a walk with men in scoring position doesn't cut it. Drew has never had 200 hits in a season, has drawn 100 walks just once, and scored 100 runs just once.
In August, Drew had his first ever two home run game, and just his second ever 4-for-4 game.
It makes you wonder what he'd ever done to earn, or deserve, his current contract from the Red Sox.
Though he came to Boston a year after Damon left, Drew hasn't made up for the loss created by Damon's departure.
Over the course of his 15-year career, Damon has 2,425 hits, 1,483 runs, 996 RBIs, 207 home runs, and 374 stolen bases.
Only five players - Craig Biggio, Barry Bonds, Rickey Henderson, Paul Molitor, and Joe Morgan - have compiled 2,500 hits, 1,500 runs, 1,000 RBIs, 225 home runs, and 400 stolen bases. Damon could very well join them next year.
While Damon makes a bid for the Hall of Fame, Drew will be remembered for his "perfect swing" and untapped potential.
Drew is a good fielder, who throws well and runs well. But he's never stolen more than 19 bases in any season, and that was 10 years ago. His offense, however, has been grossly over-rated by Theo Epstein.
And it's not just the relative absence of power either: Drew is a career .284 hitter; has never hit as many as 35 doubles in a season; never amassed 300 total bases; has drawn 100 walks just once; and has struck out at least 100 times in five seasons, including this year.
Over eleven full seasons, Drew has averaged 19 HR and 63 RBI. He simply isn't a serious run producer. Despite this, he is one of the highest paid outfielders in the game. And it was all predicated on a pretty slim resume.
Let's face it -- Drew just isn't a great player. One thing's for certain; he has always been over-rated, and he's certainly overpaid. Simply put, it's time to stop talking about his potential.
Drew has been in the Majors for over a decade and he's nearly 34 years old. The Red Sox have invested star money in a player who clearly isn't a star, and never will be. At this point he is what he is; an average player with an out-sized, undeserved contract.
So, the Red Sox and their fans are stuck with mediocrity for the next two years. That is, of course, unless the Red Sox are willing to eat some of his hefty salary after convincing some other team to give him more "time to develop."
Damon was not expected to be a power-hitter with the Sox. He was expected to get on base and score, which he did with regularity.
Drew, on the other hand, was brought to Boston to be the no. 5 hitter and to drive in runs. He was expected to be a productive offensive weapon, who would help drive the offense. This he has not done.
It's abundantly clear that the Red Sox would have been better off with Damon in their lineup these last four years, despite his weak arm. The money spent on Drew would have been better off allocated elsewhere.
Damon since 2006
576 games, 77 HR, 296 RBI, 1042 TB, .285 AVG., .457 SLG., 93 SB
Drew since 2006
532 games, 74 HR, 296 RBI, 872 TB, .278 AVG., .491 SLG. 12 SB
Damon since 2007
427 games, 53 HR, 216 RBI, 756 TB, ..285 AVG. .449 SLG., 68 SB
Drew since 2007
386 games, 54 HR, 196 RBI, 624 TB, .276 AVG., .488 SLG., 10 SB
However, Red Sox officials (absent then departed GM Theo Epstein) made the strategic decision that Damon was not worth more than $40 million over four seasons. That was their best offer.
But the Yankees placed a higher value on Damon. They had no qualms with the annual salary; they just made a shorter-term offer of four-years, $52 million.
At the time, Damon was 32 and had just completed his tenth consecutive season of playing in at least 145 games. He was the picture of consistency.
Yet the Red Sox, sticking to their formula of placing a value on a player and not going over that limit, made what turned out to be a lowball offer. Despite whatever affinity they had for Damon, they weren't about to let emotion get in the way.
Their view was that Damon was an aging player, with a poor throwing arm, who would begin breaking down. But he was exceptionally popular with the fans, and they had to at least make an offer for PR purposes. In retrospect, it seems that the Red Sox just didn't really value Damon after all.
However, it turned out that the Yankees got plenty of value for their investment in the durable and consistent outfielder. Over four years in the Bronx, Damon's numbers are strikingly similar to those in his four years with Boston.
Damon played in 576 games with the Yanks, almost the same as the 597 he played in his four seasons with the Red Sox. He has exactly the same .362 OBP in both NY and Boston. He has 21 more Yankee homers and three more Red Sox RBIs. He has 5 more Sox stolen bases and the same 21 times caught stealing. His Red Sox batting average was 10 points higher, but his Yankee slugging average is 17 points higher.
But the year after letting Damon defect to their arch rival, the Red Sox did something very strange; they made a 5-year, $70 million offer to JD Drew that raised eyebrows throughout the sport. At the time, Drew was 31 and had played in as many as 140 games just twice in his eight full seasons in the Majors.
But he was praised for his perfect swing, his intangibles, and his "potential."
After three years in Boston, we're still waiting for all of that to materialize.
Over the last three years of a contract during which Red Sox officials believed Damon would be overpaid, Damon has more hits (467 to 355), runs scored (295 to 247) and RBIs (216 to 196), than Drew. And Damon has a nearly identical home run total (53 to 54).
Yet, Drew has made an average of $1 million more per season (Drew: $14 million, Damon: $13 million) and is signed for two more years. Damon, on the other hand, is now a free agent.
If the Red Sox had signed him to the same deal the Yankees offered, they would be out from under that contract right now. But considering his high level of play, Damon will once again be sought after.
Drew, on the other hand, is still under contract for two more years.
It's worth noting that the Red Sox rank 13th among the 14 American League teams in on-base percentage from the leadoff spot since Damon departed. Damon eventually became the no. 2 hitter for the Yankees, but he certainly would have been the ideal solution for the Red Sox in the three years prior to the ascension of Jacoby Ellsbury.
Despite the lack of faith by Sox brass, Damon had yet another productive season this year, hitting .282, with 155 hits, 24 home runs and 82 RBIs. His 107 runs were tied for fourth in the AL. Damon also had a healthy .365 on-base percentage.
And it was the 14th season in a row in which Damon played at least 140 games, a testament to his durability. The only players who have done that more frequently are Hank Aaron, Brooks Robinson and Pete Rose (16 straight years) and Willie Mays (15).
On the other hand, Drew has played in 140 games in just one season for the Red Sox. And over the course of his 11-year career, Drew has averaged just 121 games per season.
This year, Drew batted .279, had 126 hits, 24 HR, 68 RBI and scored 84 runs,. If Red Sox fans weren't certain three years ago, they now know that Drew is not a premier hitter or run producer.
Drew reached 20 homers this year for just the fourth time in his career, but the first since 2006 when he was with the Dodgers. However, he has yet to drive in 100 runs, score 100 runs, or hit .300 as a member of the Red Sox.
Theo Epstein defends Drew by talking up his .879 OPS as a member of the Red Sox. But it's important to remember that Drew was brought to Boston to be a heart-of-the-order, no. 5 hitter.
Drew is a corner outfielder; and was not signed to simply get on base. Drawing walks is not the job of a no. 5 hitter. That job is to produce, to drive in runs.
Yet Drew does not do this particularly well; he has driven in 100 runs just once in his career, as a member of the Dodgers. Drawing a walk with men in scoring position doesn't cut it. Drew has never had 200 hits in a season, has drawn 100 walks just once, and scored 100 runs just once.
In August, Drew had his first ever two home run game, and just his second ever 4-for-4 game.
It makes you wonder what he'd ever done to earn, or deserve, his current contract from the Red Sox.
Though he came to Boston a year after Damon left, Drew hasn't made up for the loss created by Damon's departure.
Over the course of his 15-year career, Damon has 2,425 hits, 1,483 runs, 996 RBIs, 207 home runs, and 374 stolen bases.
Only five players - Craig Biggio, Barry Bonds, Rickey Henderson, Paul Molitor, and Joe Morgan - have compiled 2,500 hits, 1,500 runs, 1,000 RBIs, 225 home runs, and 400 stolen bases. Damon could very well join them next year.
While Damon makes a bid for the Hall of Fame, Drew will be remembered for his "perfect swing" and untapped potential.
Drew is a good fielder, who throws well and runs well. But he's never stolen more than 19 bases in any season, and that was 10 years ago. His offense, however, has been grossly over-rated by Theo Epstein.
And it's not just the relative absence of power either: Drew is a career .284 hitter; has never hit as many as 35 doubles in a season; never amassed 300 total bases; has drawn 100 walks just once; and has struck out at least 100 times in five seasons, including this year.
Over eleven full seasons, Drew has averaged 19 HR and 63 RBI. He simply isn't a serious run producer. Despite this, he is one of the highest paid outfielders in the game. And it was all predicated on a pretty slim resume.
Let's face it -- Drew just isn't a great player. One thing's for certain; he has always been over-rated, and he's certainly overpaid. Simply put, it's time to stop talking about his potential.
Drew has been in the Majors for over a decade and he's nearly 34 years old. The Red Sox have invested star money in a player who clearly isn't a star, and never will be. At this point he is what he is; an average player with an out-sized, undeserved contract.
So, the Red Sox and their fans are stuck with mediocrity for the next two years. That is, of course, unless the Red Sox are willing to eat some of his hefty salary after convincing some other team to give him more "time to develop."
Damon was not expected to be a power-hitter with the Sox. He was expected to get on base and score, which he did with regularity.
Drew, on the other hand, was brought to Boston to be the no. 5 hitter and to drive in runs. He was expected to be a productive offensive weapon, who would help drive the offense. This he has not done.
It's abundantly clear that the Red Sox would have been better off with Damon in their lineup these last four years, despite his weak arm. The money spent on Drew would have been better off allocated elsewhere.
Damon since 2006
576 games, 77 HR, 296 RBI, 1042 TB, .285 AVG., .457 SLG., 93 SB
Drew since 2006
532 games, 74 HR, 296 RBI, 872 TB, .278 AVG., .491 SLG. 12 SB
Damon since 2007
427 games, 53 HR, 216 RBI, 756 TB, ..285 AVG. .449 SLG., 68 SB
Drew since 2007
386 games, 54 HR, 196 RBI, 624 TB, .276 AVG., .488 SLG., 10 SB
Thursday, November 05, 2009
The New York Yankees: The Best Team That Money Can Buy
The Yankees' 27th World Series title is a testament to what money can buy.
The Yankees bid farewell to high-priced (but aging or diminished) players like Mike Mussina, Carl Pavano, Jason Giambi, and Bobby Abreu last offseason, and then replaced them with younger, fresher free agents.
The team signed CC Sabathia, Mark Teixeira and A.J. Burnett in a $423.5 million offseason spending spree. It's the kind of money few other teams had the capacity to spend. The three players were immediately amongst the top five highest paid players on the Yankees' very expensive roster.
With their $201.5 million payroll, the Yankees were in a class by themselves.
On Opening Day, the difference between the Yankees (No. 1 in payroll) and the Mets (No. 2 in payroll) was nearly $66M. That was greater than the entire payrolls of the Twins, Rays, A’s, Nationals, Pirates, Padres, and Marlins.
And the Yankees' payroll was bigger than the bottom four teams combined.
Since their loss in the desert to the Diamondbacks in 2001, the Yankees have spent more than $1.6 billion on player salaries in an effort to regain the World Series crown.
Indeed, the Yankees spent their way to their 27th title, the most in North American sports. The next closest Major League teams are the Cardinals, with 10 WS victories; the A's, with nine; the Red Sox, with seven, and the Dodgers, with six championships.
While nine seasons without a championship would seem like a short spell for most teams, for the Yankees—who view the title as a birthright—it was almost an eternity. The gap was the third-longest stretch without a championship for the Yankees since their first one, following gaps of 17 years (1979-95) and 14 years (1963-76).
The Yankees' aging roster defied the odds.
The previous seven World Champions had used a combined total of only seven starting everyday players who were 33 or older, including just four players who were playing past their 35th birthday.
The Yankees, with their cast of high-priced veterans, bucked that trend by starting Alex Rodriguez , 34, Derek Jeter , 35, Hideki Matsui, 35, Johnny Damon , 36, and Jorge Posada, 38.
No team had even won the pennant with a 35-or-older shortstop since the 1956 Brooklyn Dodgers with Pee Wee Reese. Only two of the 240 teams to make the postseason since then used such an old shortstop: the 1996 Orioles (Cal Ripken) and 1981 Phillies (Larry Bowa).
The Bombers will face some interesting decisions with that lineup this winter, and in coming years.
Matsui and Damon are both free agents. Given Damon's durability, base running prowess, and ability to still play left field, he seems more likely to return than Matsui, the World Series MVP.
Andy Pettitte, who won all three clinching playoff games for the Yankees, is a free agent once again. Where does he fit into the team's plans? Does he just want to ride off into the sunset and enjoy the glory of his accomplishments?
Captain Derek Jeter becomes a free agent after next season. It's impossible to imagine him playing elsewhere. And with the team's all-time hits leader having another strong season and approaching 3,000 career hits, the club will surely want to extend him. But for how long, and where will he play? Jeter will be 36 at the end of his current contract, and his range at short will be an issue in the near future.
Team management will worry about these things later. For now they will bask in the afterglow of their accomplishments. They are truly the best team that $201.5 million can buy.
Right now, the Yankees are in a class all by themselves. And, financially, they are in a league of their own.
The Yankees bid farewell to high-priced (but aging or diminished) players like Mike Mussina, Carl Pavano, Jason Giambi, and Bobby Abreu last offseason, and then replaced them with younger, fresher free agents.
The team signed CC Sabathia, Mark Teixeira and A.J. Burnett in a $423.5 million offseason spending spree. It's the kind of money few other teams had the capacity to spend. The three players were immediately amongst the top five highest paid players on the Yankees' very expensive roster.
With their $201.5 million payroll, the Yankees were in a class by themselves.
On Opening Day, the difference between the Yankees (No. 1 in payroll) and the Mets (No. 2 in payroll) was nearly $66M. That was greater than the entire payrolls of the Twins, Rays, A’s, Nationals, Pirates, Padres, and Marlins.
And the Yankees' payroll was bigger than the bottom four teams combined.
Since their loss in the desert to the Diamondbacks in 2001, the Yankees have spent more than $1.6 billion on player salaries in an effort to regain the World Series crown.
Indeed, the Yankees spent their way to their 27th title, the most in North American sports. The next closest Major League teams are the Cardinals, with 10 WS victories; the A's, with nine; the Red Sox, with seven, and the Dodgers, with six championships.
While nine seasons without a championship would seem like a short spell for most teams, for the Yankees—who view the title as a birthright—it was almost an eternity. The gap was the third-longest stretch without a championship for the Yankees since their first one, following gaps of 17 years (1979-95) and 14 years (1963-76).
The Yankees' aging roster defied the odds.
The previous seven World Champions had used a combined total of only seven starting everyday players who were 33 or older, including just four players who were playing past their 35th birthday.
The Yankees, with their cast of high-priced veterans, bucked that trend by starting Alex Rodriguez , 34, Derek Jeter , 35, Hideki Matsui, 35, Johnny Damon , 36, and Jorge Posada, 38.
No team had even won the pennant with a 35-or-older shortstop since the 1956 Brooklyn Dodgers with Pee Wee Reese. Only two of the 240 teams to make the postseason since then used such an old shortstop: the 1996 Orioles (Cal Ripken) and 1981 Phillies (Larry Bowa).
The Bombers will face some interesting decisions with that lineup this winter, and in coming years.
Matsui and Damon are both free agents. Given Damon's durability, base running prowess, and ability to still play left field, he seems more likely to return than Matsui, the World Series MVP.
Andy Pettitte, who won all three clinching playoff games for the Yankees, is a free agent once again. Where does he fit into the team's plans? Does he just want to ride off into the sunset and enjoy the glory of his accomplishments?
Captain Derek Jeter becomes a free agent after next season. It's impossible to imagine him playing elsewhere. And with the team's all-time hits leader having another strong season and approaching 3,000 career hits, the club will surely want to extend him. But for how long, and where will he play? Jeter will be 36 at the end of his current contract, and his range at short will be an issue in the near future.
Team management will worry about these things later. For now they will bask in the afterglow of their accomplishments. They are truly the best team that $201.5 million can buy.
Right now, the Yankees are in a class all by themselves. And, financially, they are in a league of their own.
Thursday, October 29, 2009
Aroldis Chapman has "Very Good" Visit with Red Sox
Cuban pitching sensation Aroldis Chapman was scheduled to throw a bullpen session on Wednesday at Fenway Park. However, due to the weather in Boston, it is unclear whether he actually threw for Red Sox officials.
Yet, according to Chapman's agent, Edwin Mejia, a meeting between Red Sox management and the pitcher still took place. Mejia reported that Chapman was impressed with the organization and called it a "very good visit."
The 21-year-old left-hander has hit 102 mph on radar guns and, with a lean 6-foot-4 frame, is said to project well in the Majors.
While he throws a triple-digit heater, Chapman is said to lack command of his secondary pitches and scouts believe that he still needs time to develop in the minors.
The young Cuban defected defected on July 1 and is now officially a free agent who can go to the highest bidder. The bids are expected to be quite high.
This year's shallow free-agent pitching pool will likely make him one of the most expensive players on the market this offseason.
In addition to the Red Sox, Chapman has already met with both the Yankees and the Mets.
While the young hurler is drawing interest from other clubs, such as the Tigers, the Cardinals and even the Mariners, the quest for his services will probably come down to yet another contest between the Sox and Yankees.
The other clubs are probably just window shopping and aren't likely to cough up the $40-$60 million that the Cuban left-hander is expecting.
Only the Sox and the Yanks can plunk down that kind of cash. It's difficult to imagine anyone else handing out that kind of money to a pitcher who's unproven at the big-league level
The experience with Daisuke Matsuzaka, another high-priced, foreign-born pitcher with no prior big league experience, could cause the Red Sox to exercise caution.
The Yankees are still the marquee team around the world, and their appearance in the World Series this year will give them a leg up on the Sox.
Money being equal, Chapman will want to go with a winner, and the team with the greatest chance of future success. Despite not having won a World Series since 2000, the Yankees still have international cache.
Whether they win or lose the Fall Classic, expect the Yankees to make their usual full-court press.
Consider this: The Yankees paid Cuban right-hander Jose Contreras $32 million in 2002. How much they will bid for Chapman this year is anybody's guess.
Yet, according to Chapman's agent, Edwin Mejia, a meeting between Red Sox management and the pitcher still took place. Mejia reported that Chapman was impressed with the organization and called it a "very good visit."
The 21-year-old left-hander has hit 102 mph on radar guns and, with a lean 6-foot-4 frame, is said to project well in the Majors.
While he throws a triple-digit heater, Chapman is said to lack command of his secondary pitches and scouts believe that he still needs time to develop in the minors.
The young Cuban defected defected on July 1 and is now officially a free agent who can go to the highest bidder. The bids are expected to be quite high.
This year's shallow free-agent pitching pool will likely make him one of the most expensive players on the market this offseason.
In addition to the Red Sox, Chapman has already met with both the Yankees and the Mets.
While the young hurler is drawing interest from other clubs, such as the Tigers, the Cardinals and even the Mariners, the quest for his services will probably come down to yet another contest between the Sox and Yankees.
The other clubs are probably just window shopping and aren't likely to cough up the $40-$60 million that the Cuban left-hander is expecting.
Only the Sox and the Yanks can plunk down that kind of cash. It's difficult to imagine anyone else handing out that kind of money to a pitcher who's unproven at the big-league level
The experience with Daisuke Matsuzaka, another high-priced, foreign-born pitcher with no prior big league experience, could cause the Red Sox to exercise caution.
The Yankees are still the marquee team around the world, and their appearance in the World Series this year will give them a leg up on the Sox.
Money being equal, Chapman will want to go with a winner, and the team with the greatest chance of future success. Despite not having won a World Series since 2000, the Yankees still have international cache.
Whether they win or lose the Fall Classic, expect the Yankees to make their usual full-court press.
Consider this: The Yankees paid Cuban right-hander Jose Contreras $32 million in 2002. How much they will bid for Chapman this year is anybody's guess.
Friday, October 16, 2009
Red Sox Efforts to Improve May Be Limited
Despite scoring the third most runs in baseball this season, the Red Sox offense couldn't rise to the occasion in their brief post-season. That's because two of those three games were played away from Fenway Park.
The Red Sox 481 runs scored at home led the Majors. But they were ninth in the Majors (fifth in the AL) in runs scored on the road, with 391. That 90 run differential is their Achilles heel.
The Red Sox season can be defined as a tale of two teams; the Red Sox at home, and the Red Sox on the road.
The team's lackluster road offense haunted them all season; they were was just 39-42 away from Fenway. And the Sox batted just .257 on the road, a number that ranked ninth in the American League behind teams like Cleveland, Oakland and Chicago.
The Sox road deficiencies were especially obvious in the ALDS; the Sox hit just .131 in Anaheim. But they exploded for six runs in Game 3 upon returning to Fenway.
Fenway is clearly designed for offense, and naturally the Red Sox should thrive there; seven Sox regulars hit at least 30 points higher at home. That can also be attributed to the familiarity of home field, waking up in your own bed, and playing in front of a very supportive home crowd.
But no team can realistically expect to win a World Series with a losing road record, and an anemic road offense.
The Sox .257 road batting average ranked 17th in the major leagues, behind the Nationals. And they were 12th in slugging at .414. That is in direct contrast to their offense at home, where they were first in slugging at .498 and fifth in average at .294.
In last year's ALDS against Anaheim, the Red Sox averaged 4.5 runs per game over the four-game series. Then, in the ALCS against Tampa, the Sox averaged just four runs per game over the seven-game series.
In this year's ALDS, the Sox averaged just 2.33 runs per game. Unless its pitching is overwhelmingly dominant, no team will win while averaging so few runs.
As constructed, the current Sox team is built for the regular season, where it can beat up on weaker AL teams. But it is not built for the post-season.
So what can realistically be done about this? How can the offense be re-tooled?
The key word is realism. The Sox can't trade underperforming players for superstars. And if they make a trade for a high-caliber player, that would mean sacrificing a high caliber player, or players, of their own.
However, this year's free agent class will be thin, so a trade is still a distinct possibility.
Let's work our way around the diamond to see where the Sox might improve for 2010.
Catcher: The Red Sox made a smart move in dealing for Victor Martinez. The Sox hold a $7 million club option, which they will surely exercise. The only question is whether they will attempt to extend Martinez this offseason. Both parties would be well served, as there is a mutual admiration and respect. The Red Sox offer Martinez a legitimate chance to win each year. Martinez brings versatility, much-needed offense, character and leadership.
The Red Sox will not pick up Jason Varitek's $5 million team option for 2010. But Varitek holds a $3 million player option, which he can, and likely will, exercise. His days as a starter are over, but he brings valuable experience, preparation, knowledge, and leadership in a backup role.
First base: The Sox are set with 31-year-old Kevin Youkilis, who is still in the prime of his career. Youkilis can hit for power and average, and spends a lot of time on base. In addition, he possesses Gold Glove-caliber defense. His ability to play both first and third – quite skillfully – makes him highly versatile.
Casey Kotchman, a mere 26, is an enviable backup who would be a starter on many teams.
Second base: The Sox have 26-year-old Dustin Pedroia, who has already won a Rookie of the Year Award, an MVP Award, a Silver Slugger, and a Gold Glove. Need I say more?
The only question is who the backup infielder will be; Jed Lowrie or Nick Green?
Third base: Next season, Mike Lowell will be 36 and a year removed from hip surgery. He will be entering the final year of a contract that will pay him $12 million. The Red Sox will get what they can out of Lowell, who was still quite productive this season (.290, 17 HR, 75 RBI) despite his limited playing time (119 games). Considering his age, injury history, and hefty 2010 salary, he is not tradable – unless the Red Sox agree to pay about half his salary.
Lowell is still a solid defender, despite his lost range. Whether you think the Sox are stuck with him or lucky to have him, he will be the team's starting third baseman in 2010. And don't surprised if he has a terrific bounce-back season – assuming he's healthy and plays regularly. That's a big if.
Shortstop: This is one of the few areas where the Red Sox can attempt to upgrade the offense through a potential trade. At almost every position, they are either committed to a young, productive player who is under contract, or they are saddled with an aging, unproductive veteran (more on this in a moment). Shortstop is an exception.
The Sox hold a $6 million club option on Alex Gonzalez and seem inclined – at least for now – to bring him back. They might prefer to work a deal for less money that would give them more flexibility next season and beyond. Gonzalez is a terrific defensive player who prevents runs, and he gave the Sox an unexpected jolt of offense upon his return to Boston (.284 Avg. / .789 OPS).
But he will be 33 to start the season. The Sox would like to get younger, and more productive, at the position. Even if he returns, Gonzalez is simply a stopgap. He is yet another short-term solution on the seemingly endless shortstop merry-go-round for the Red Sox.
The club had hoped that Jed Lowrie would step up and stabilize the position. He was given every opportunity to inherit it and prove himself. But Lowrie has been hindered by a wrist injury that may, or may not, improve. Lowrie will only be 26 next year, but he batted .147 this season and just .258 in 2008, when he was healthy. At this point, he nothing more than a question mark. Will he ever develop, and how good can he be?
It should be noted that the Red Sox will be paying Julio Lugo $9 million to play shortstop for the Cardinals next season. That's money that can't be used to address their own needs at the position, and it will surely be factored into any other acquisition.
Left field: Bringing back Jason Bay would be ideal. He loves Boston and Boston loves him. The Sox had leverage earlier this year when everyone was waiting for an economic cataclysm. Then Bay went out and had a career-year, securing all the leverage for himself. Oddly, the Sox may still be waiting for an economic cataclysm to drive Bay's asking price down. The truth is, there aren't many other good options, as I detailed in this story. The Sox still need more offense even if they reacquire Bay. They can ill afford to lose him.
Center field: Jacoby Ellsbury became just the 12th player in Major League history to hit at least .300 and steal at least 70 bases. The 26-year-old has developed into a fine leadoff hitter, with a .310 average and a .355 OBP. He is also a stellar defensive player, though he at times attempts to do too much. With a tendency for the spectacular, Ellsbury often dives for balls that are simply uncatchable. That can lead to extra-bases, and even injury. He will continue to mature. The center fielder is part of the Red Sox core of young, talented, inexpensive, homegrown players, and he will be under team control for four more seasons.
Right field: JD Drew is a prime example of an overpaid, underachiever. The Red Sox are committed to overpaying him $14 million in each of the next two seasons. He is un-tradable – unless the Sox are willing to eat about half his salary. The problem with Drew isn't just that he underperforms (in three years with the Red Sox, he has yet to score, or drive in, 100 runs); it's that his ridiculous salary raises the floor of every other free agent's asking price. With Drew making $14 million annually, just how much is Jason Bay worth? $20 million? Drew's contract distorts all others. If he were making $7 million annually, then we'd feel that he was at least earning his pay and not disrupting the market for corner outfielders.
Designated hitter: Though he salvaged his season by finishing with 28 HR and 99 RBI, David Ortiz was mostly painful to watch. He routinely looked off balance and couldn't catch up to fastballs. He popped all too often, and struck out a career-high 134 times. He has been in decline for three successive seasons, and it's hard to imagine what he's got left in the tank. But it's easy to speculate that his best years are long since behind him. Ortiz is under contract for $12.5 million in 2010, and the Red Sox are stuck with him, for better or for worse. They hold a team option for the same money in 2011, but that is unthinkable at this point.
Ortiz is nothing more than a DH, and cannot play in the NL. That leaves the Sox with little trade leverage and limited trade opportunities. Once again, unless the team is willing to eat a significant portion of his contract, Ortiz will be back.
Ultimately, the Red Sox are deeply financially committed to aging, injured and unproductive players at third, left, and DH. That's one-third of the lineup. It will inhibit them in 2010. Their best trade bait happens to be the young, talented players they are loathe to trade (i.e. Ellsbury, Pedroia, Clay Buchholz, etc.).
Short of bolstering the offense – which may only be possible at shortstop (signing utility infielders and backup outfielders is just tinkering at the margins) – the Sox may look to improve their starting rotation. That rotation was too old this season, with the likes of Tim Wakefield, John Smoltz, and Paul Byrd.
Daisuke Matsuzaka is a mystery. Once thought of as a potential ace, this year he looked like a minor league pitcher. The righty doesn't trust his stuff and avoids the strike zone. He walks all too many batters and throws far too many pitches. At this rate, his Major League career could be brief; if it's not cut short due to injury, he may wash out of the Majors entirely. Who knows what to expect from him in 2010? One way or the other, his trade value has plummeted.
The Sox have two consistent and reliable starters (Jon Lester and Josh Beckett, in that order). Clay Buchholz looks promising. But then again, we've been saying that for a few years.
After all the injuries to the rotation this year – one that was initially viewed as especially deep – the Sox need to add more depth. If they can't win games with a consistently reliable offense, then they must possess a virtually unhittable pitching staff, 1 through 5.
Unless they are willing to part with numerous top level prospects to land Felix Hernandez, the free agency route will be thin. Players young enough and talented to be be worthy of consideration are few and far between.
Erik Bedard has been injured and ineffective. Justin Duchscherer is soon to be 32 and has been a starter for just one season. Tim Hudson, Brandon Webb and Cliff Lee all have team options that will likely be exercised.
There are no easy solutions.
John Lackey, anyone?
The Red Sox 481 runs scored at home led the Majors. But they were ninth in the Majors (fifth in the AL) in runs scored on the road, with 391. That 90 run differential is their Achilles heel.
The Red Sox season can be defined as a tale of two teams; the Red Sox at home, and the Red Sox on the road.
The team's lackluster road offense haunted them all season; they were was just 39-42 away from Fenway. And the Sox batted just .257 on the road, a number that ranked ninth in the American League behind teams like Cleveland, Oakland and Chicago.
The Sox road deficiencies were especially obvious in the ALDS; the Sox hit just .131 in Anaheim. But they exploded for six runs in Game 3 upon returning to Fenway.
Fenway is clearly designed for offense, and naturally the Red Sox should thrive there; seven Sox regulars hit at least 30 points higher at home. That can also be attributed to the familiarity of home field, waking up in your own bed, and playing in front of a very supportive home crowd.
But no team can realistically expect to win a World Series with a losing road record, and an anemic road offense.
The Sox .257 road batting average ranked 17th in the major leagues, behind the Nationals. And they were 12th in slugging at .414. That is in direct contrast to their offense at home, where they were first in slugging at .498 and fifth in average at .294.
In last year's ALDS against Anaheim, the Red Sox averaged 4.5 runs per game over the four-game series. Then, in the ALCS against Tampa, the Sox averaged just four runs per game over the seven-game series.
In this year's ALDS, the Sox averaged just 2.33 runs per game. Unless its pitching is overwhelmingly dominant, no team will win while averaging so few runs.
As constructed, the current Sox team is built for the regular season, where it can beat up on weaker AL teams. But it is not built for the post-season.
So what can realistically be done about this? How can the offense be re-tooled?
The key word is realism. The Sox can't trade underperforming players for superstars. And if they make a trade for a high-caliber player, that would mean sacrificing a high caliber player, or players, of their own.
However, this year's free agent class will be thin, so a trade is still a distinct possibility.
Let's work our way around the diamond to see where the Sox might improve for 2010.
Catcher: The Red Sox made a smart move in dealing for Victor Martinez. The Sox hold a $7 million club option, which they will surely exercise. The only question is whether they will attempt to extend Martinez this offseason. Both parties would be well served, as there is a mutual admiration and respect. The Red Sox offer Martinez a legitimate chance to win each year. Martinez brings versatility, much-needed offense, character and leadership.
The Red Sox will not pick up Jason Varitek's $5 million team option for 2010. But Varitek holds a $3 million player option, which he can, and likely will, exercise. His days as a starter are over, but he brings valuable experience, preparation, knowledge, and leadership in a backup role.
First base: The Sox are set with 31-year-old Kevin Youkilis, who is still in the prime of his career. Youkilis can hit for power and average, and spends a lot of time on base. In addition, he possesses Gold Glove-caliber defense. His ability to play both first and third – quite skillfully – makes him highly versatile.
Casey Kotchman, a mere 26, is an enviable backup who would be a starter on many teams.
Second base: The Sox have 26-year-old Dustin Pedroia, who has already won a Rookie of the Year Award, an MVP Award, a Silver Slugger, and a Gold Glove. Need I say more?
The only question is who the backup infielder will be; Jed Lowrie or Nick Green?
Third base: Next season, Mike Lowell will be 36 and a year removed from hip surgery. He will be entering the final year of a contract that will pay him $12 million. The Red Sox will get what they can out of Lowell, who was still quite productive this season (.290, 17 HR, 75 RBI) despite his limited playing time (119 games). Considering his age, injury history, and hefty 2010 salary, he is not tradable – unless the Red Sox agree to pay about half his salary.
Lowell is still a solid defender, despite his lost range. Whether you think the Sox are stuck with him or lucky to have him, he will be the team's starting third baseman in 2010. And don't surprised if he has a terrific bounce-back season – assuming he's healthy and plays regularly. That's a big if.
Shortstop: This is one of the few areas where the Red Sox can attempt to upgrade the offense through a potential trade. At almost every position, they are either committed to a young, productive player who is under contract, or they are saddled with an aging, unproductive veteran (more on this in a moment). Shortstop is an exception.
The Sox hold a $6 million club option on Alex Gonzalez and seem inclined – at least for now – to bring him back. They might prefer to work a deal for less money that would give them more flexibility next season and beyond. Gonzalez is a terrific defensive player who prevents runs, and he gave the Sox an unexpected jolt of offense upon his return to Boston (.284 Avg. / .789 OPS).
But he will be 33 to start the season. The Sox would like to get younger, and more productive, at the position. Even if he returns, Gonzalez is simply a stopgap. He is yet another short-term solution on the seemingly endless shortstop merry-go-round for the Red Sox.
The club had hoped that Jed Lowrie would step up and stabilize the position. He was given every opportunity to inherit it and prove himself. But Lowrie has been hindered by a wrist injury that may, or may not, improve. Lowrie will only be 26 next year, but he batted .147 this season and just .258 in 2008, when he was healthy. At this point, he nothing more than a question mark. Will he ever develop, and how good can he be?
It should be noted that the Red Sox will be paying Julio Lugo $9 million to play shortstop for the Cardinals next season. That's money that can't be used to address their own needs at the position, and it will surely be factored into any other acquisition.
Left field: Bringing back Jason Bay would be ideal. He loves Boston and Boston loves him. The Sox had leverage earlier this year when everyone was waiting for an economic cataclysm. Then Bay went out and had a career-year, securing all the leverage for himself. Oddly, the Sox may still be waiting for an economic cataclysm to drive Bay's asking price down. The truth is, there aren't many other good options, as I detailed in this story. The Sox still need more offense even if they reacquire Bay. They can ill afford to lose him.
Center field: Jacoby Ellsbury became just the 12th player in Major League history to hit at least .300 and steal at least 70 bases. The 26-year-old has developed into a fine leadoff hitter, with a .310 average and a .355 OBP. He is also a stellar defensive player, though he at times attempts to do too much. With a tendency for the spectacular, Ellsbury often dives for balls that are simply uncatchable. That can lead to extra-bases, and even injury. He will continue to mature. The center fielder is part of the Red Sox core of young, talented, inexpensive, homegrown players, and he will be under team control for four more seasons.
Right field: JD Drew is a prime example of an overpaid, underachiever. The Red Sox are committed to overpaying him $14 million in each of the next two seasons. He is un-tradable – unless the Sox are willing to eat about half his salary. The problem with Drew isn't just that he underperforms (in three years with the Red Sox, he has yet to score, or drive in, 100 runs); it's that his ridiculous salary raises the floor of every other free agent's asking price. With Drew making $14 million annually, just how much is Jason Bay worth? $20 million? Drew's contract distorts all others. If he were making $7 million annually, then we'd feel that he was at least earning his pay and not disrupting the market for corner outfielders.
Designated hitter: Though he salvaged his season by finishing with 28 HR and 99 RBI, David Ortiz was mostly painful to watch. He routinely looked off balance and couldn't catch up to fastballs. He popped all too often, and struck out a career-high 134 times. He has been in decline for three successive seasons, and it's hard to imagine what he's got left in the tank. But it's easy to speculate that his best years are long since behind him. Ortiz is under contract for $12.5 million in 2010, and the Red Sox are stuck with him, for better or for worse. They hold a team option for the same money in 2011, but that is unthinkable at this point.
Ortiz is nothing more than a DH, and cannot play in the NL. That leaves the Sox with little trade leverage and limited trade opportunities. Once again, unless the team is willing to eat a significant portion of his contract, Ortiz will be back.
Ultimately, the Red Sox are deeply financially committed to aging, injured and unproductive players at third, left, and DH. That's one-third of the lineup. It will inhibit them in 2010. Their best trade bait happens to be the young, talented players they are loathe to trade (i.e. Ellsbury, Pedroia, Clay Buchholz, etc.).
Short of bolstering the offense – which may only be possible at shortstop (signing utility infielders and backup outfielders is just tinkering at the margins) – the Sox may look to improve their starting rotation. That rotation was too old this season, with the likes of Tim Wakefield, John Smoltz, and Paul Byrd.
Daisuke Matsuzaka is a mystery. Once thought of as a potential ace, this year he looked like a minor league pitcher. The righty doesn't trust his stuff and avoids the strike zone. He walks all too many batters and throws far too many pitches. At this rate, his Major League career could be brief; if it's not cut short due to injury, he may wash out of the Majors entirely. Who knows what to expect from him in 2010? One way or the other, his trade value has plummeted.
The Sox have two consistent and reliable starters (Jon Lester and Josh Beckett, in that order). Clay Buchholz looks promising. But then again, we've been saying that for a few years.
After all the injuries to the rotation this year – one that was initially viewed as especially deep – the Sox need to add more depth. If they can't win games with a consistently reliable offense, then they must possess a virtually unhittable pitching staff, 1 through 5.
Unless they are willing to part with numerous top level prospects to land Felix Hernandez, the free agency route will be thin. Players young enough and talented to be be worthy of consideration are few and far between.
Erik Bedard has been injured and ineffective. Justin Duchscherer is soon to be 32 and has been a starter for just one season. Tim Hudson, Brandon Webb and Cliff Lee all have team options that will likely be exercised.
There are no easy solutions.
John Lackey, anyone?
Wednesday, October 14, 2009
Important Dates on the Red Sox/MLB Calendar
Oct. 28 — World Series begins in city of American League champion
Nov. ? —Free agent filing period begins 15 days after World Series ends
Nov. 9-11 — General managers meetings, Chicago
Nov. TBA — The first day teams can sign any free agent
Nov. 20 — Day to file reserve lists for all minor league levels and major leagues
Dec. 1 — Last day for teams to offer salary arbitration to their former players who became ranked free agents in order to be eligible for compensation
Dec. 7-10 — Baseball winter meetings, Indianapolis
Dec. TBA — Last day for free agents to accept an arbitration offer from former team
Dec. 10 — Major League Rule 5 Draft -- Winter Meetings, Indianapolis
Dec. 12 — Last day for teams to offer 2010 contracts to unsigned players
Jan 5-15 — Salary arbitration filing period
Jan. TBA — Owners' meetings
Jan. 19 — Exchange of salary arbitration figures
Feb. 1-21 — Salary arbitration hearings period, St. Petersburg, Fla.
Feb. 18 — Spring training: MLB voluntary reporting date for pitchers, catchers and injured players
Feb. 23 — Spring training: MLB voluntary reporting date for other players
March 2 — Spring training: Mandatory reporting date for players
March 2-11 — Teams may renew contracts of unsigned players
March 3 — First Red Sox spring training game
March 17 — Last day to place a player on unconditional release waivers and pay 30 days termination pay instead of 45 days
March 31 — Last day to request unconditional release waivers on a player without having to pay his full 2010 salary
April 4 — MLB Opening Night: Teams TBA; active rosters reduced to 25 players
April 5 — Opening Day: Red Sox vs. Yankees at Fenway Park
Nov. ? —Free agent filing period begins 15 days after World Series ends
Nov. 9-11 — General managers meetings, Chicago
Nov. TBA — The first day teams can sign any free agent
Nov. 20 — Day to file reserve lists for all minor league levels and major leagues
Dec. 1 — Last day for teams to offer salary arbitration to their former players who became ranked free agents in order to be eligible for compensation
Dec. 7-10 — Baseball winter meetings, Indianapolis
Dec. TBA — Last day for free agents to accept an arbitration offer from former team
Dec. 10 — Major League Rule 5 Draft -- Winter Meetings, Indianapolis
Dec. 12 — Last day for teams to offer 2010 contracts to unsigned players
Jan 5-15 — Salary arbitration filing period
Jan. TBA — Owners' meetings
Jan. 19 — Exchange of salary arbitration figures
Feb. 1-21 — Salary arbitration hearings period, St. Petersburg, Fla.
Feb. 18 — Spring training: MLB voluntary reporting date for pitchers, catchers and injured players
Feb. 23 — Spring training: MLB voluntary reporting date for other players
March 2 — Spring training: Mandatory reporting date for players
March 2-11 — Teams may renew contracts of unsigned players
March 3 — First Red Sox spring training game
March 17 — Last day to place a player on unconditional release waivers and pay 30 days termination pay instead of 45 days
March 31 — Last day to request unconditional release waivers on a player without having to pay his full 2010 salary
April 4 — MLB Opening Night: Teams TBA; active rosters reduced to 25 players
April 5 — Opening Day: Red Sox vs. Yankees at Fenway Park
Saturday, October 10, 2009
Red Sox Have Their Backs Against The Wall
Team Hoping That History Is On Their Side
The Red Sox possessed the third most potent offense in the Majors this year. You'd hardly know it judging by the first two games of the ALDS.
The Sox totaled just eight hits (four each game) and one run in the two games in Anaheim. They were simply handcuffed by Angel pitching.
The Red Sox 5-0 loss in Game 1 was their first playoff shutout since a 4-0 defeat at Cleveland in Game 2 of the 1995 division series. The Sox had six baserunners but none made it past second base.
Last night they advanced just two runners past first base.
What's happening?
The Red Sox started six players who batted at least .284 during the regular season. There really aren't any holes in the lineup that Terry Francona put on the field in Anaheim.
Yet, the Red Sox have had 61 at-bats in this series and managed just a meager eight hits. This is how the Sox lineup fared over the two games in Anaheim:
Ellsbury 2-7, Pedroia 1-8, Martinez 1-7, Youkilis 1-8, Ortiz 0-8, Bay 1-5, Lowell 0-7, Drew 1-5, Gonzalez 1-4, Kotchman 0-1, Lowrie 0-1
The Red Sox must be as surprised as anyone by all of this. They certainly didn't enter this series lacking in confidence; history is squarely on their side.
Boston has beaten Los Angeles three times in the division series in the last five seasons. The Red Sox won in four games last year after sweeping the Angels in 2004 and 2007 en route to winning the World Series.
And yet they now find themselves with their backs against the proverbial wall, needing to win all three remaining games to advance to the ALCS. In this case, history is on their side once again.
Only four teams have overcome a 0-2 deficit in the ALDS:
1995 Mariners vs. Yankees
1999 Red Sox vs. Indians
2001 Yankees vs. A's
2003 Red Sox vs. A's
As I wrote in a preview of this series, the one thing that may have been working against the Red Sox, and for the Angles, in this series are the odds.
Going back to 1986, the Red Sox have won four consecutive series against the Angels. And, entering this series, they had won nine of the ten post-season games played this decade.
That kind of luck (and baseball is often a game of luck, or good fortune) has to eventually wear out. And if it isn’t luck, then the odds have to change at some point. They always do. The Red Sox finally overcame the Yankees in 2004, after so many years of loss and heartache at the hands of their arch nemesis.
The Angels are hoping for a similar outcome, in which they also finally overcome the adversary that has dominated them for so long. Needing to win just one of the next three games, they are in the proverbial catbird's seat.
The Red Sox, who had the second best home record (52-25) in baseball this season, after the Yankees, are hoping that a return to the familiar and comfy confines of Fenway Park will re-awaken the sleeping giant that is their offense.
And they can take comfort in this; history is on their side. They are just one of three teams to overcome an 0-2 deficit in the ALDS, and they have done it twice.
They have to maintain hope that they can keep that streak, and that history, alive for at least three more games.
The Red Sox possessed the third most potent offense in the Majors this year. You'd hardly know it judging by the first two games of the ALDS.
The Sox totaled just eight hits (four each game) and one run in the two games in Anaheim. They were simply handcuffed by Angel pitching.
The Red Sox 5-0 loss in Game 1 was their first playoff shutout since a 4-0 defeat at Cleveland in Game 2 of the 1995 division series. The Sox had six baserunners but none made it past second base.
Last night they advanced just two runners past first base.
What's happening?
The Red Sox started six players who batted at least .284 during the regular season. There really aren't any holes in the lineup that Terry Francona put on the field in Anaheim.
Yet, the Red Sox have had 61 at-bats in this series and managed just a meager eight hits. This is how the Sox lineup fared over the two games in Anaheim:
Ellsbury 2-7, Pedroia 1-8, Martinez 1-7, Youkilis 1-8, Ortiz 0-8, Bay 1-5, Lowell 0-7, Drew 1-5, Gonzalez 1-4, Kotchman 0-1, Lowrie 0-1
The Red Sox must be as surprised as anyone by all of this. They certainly didn't enter this series lacking in confidence; history is squarely on their side.
Boston has beaten Los Angeles three times in the division series in the last five seasons. The Red Sox won in four games last year after sweeping the Angels in 2004 and 2007 en route to winning the World Series.
And yet they now find themselves with their backs against the proverbial wall, needing to win all three remaining games to advance to the ALCS. In this case, history is on their side once again.
Only four teams have overcome a 0-2 deficit in the ALDS:
1995 Mariners vs. Yankees
1999 Red Sox vs. Indians
2001 Yankees vs. A's
2003 Red Sox vs. A's
As I wrote in a preview of this series, the one thing that may have been working against the Red Sox, and for the Angles, in this series are the odds.
Going back to 1986, the Red Sox have won four consecutive series against the Angels. And, entering this series, they had won nine of the ten post-season games played this decade.
That kind of luck (and baseball is often a game of luck, or good fortune) has to eventually wear out. And if it isn’t luck, then the odds have to change at some point. They always do. The Red Sox finally overcame the Yankees in 2004, after so many years of loss and heartache at the hands of their arch nemesis.
The Angels are hoping for a similar outcome, in which they also finally overcome the adversary that has dominated them for so long. Needing to win just one of the next three games, they are in the proverbial catbird's seat.
The Red Sox, who had the second best home record (52-25) in baseball this season, after the Yankees, are hoping that a return to the familiar and comfy confines of Fenway Park will re-awaken the sleeping giant that is their offense.
And they can take comfort in this; history is on their side. They are just one of three teams to overcome an 0-2 deficit in the ALDS, and they have done it twice.
They have to maintain hope that they can keep that streak, and that history, alive for at least three more games.
Thursday, October 01, 2009
Red Sox Vs. Angels in ALDS; Will History Repeat?
One hundred fifty-seven games into the 2009 season, the Red Sox finally secured their sixth post-season appearance this decade.
Well, they didn't actually secure it through their own accord; by losing to the Angels, the Texas Rangers eliminated themselves, allowing the Red Sox entrance into the October sweepstakes.
The outcome sets up a rematch of last year's ALDS between the Red Sox and Angels. It's become something of an October custom; the two clubs have already met three times this decade — 2004, 2007, and 2008.
The Angels will also be making their sixth post-season appearance this decade, and the fourth in the past five years. But aside from 2002, when they won it all, the post-season hasn't been kind to the Angels.
The Red Sox have been their arch nemesis. Going back to 1986, the Red Sox have won four consecutive series. And they have won nine of the ten post-season games played this decade.
The Angels possess a very potent offense; they are first in batting average, second in runs, second in hits, third in on-base percentage, fourth in slugging, and fourth in total bases.
The team from Anaheim has won 93 games so far this season, and clearly sports a balanced attack at the plate. In the past, the Angels' weakness was an inability to score runs; that is a problem no more.
This year, their weakness could be pitching. The Angels have had 14 different people start games this year, and have handed the ball at some point or another to 12 players making their major league debut, both major league highs.
Angels’ closer Brian Fuentes, though leading the AL with 46 saves, also has seven blown saves. In addition, his 4.05 ERA gives him the distinction of being just one of three AL relievers with at least 10 saves to have an ERA over four. And then there’s this; Fuentes’ strikeout rate has declined from 11.78 per nine innings last season to 7.82 this year.
Meanwhile, the Red Sox—who had been on a hot streak, winning 12 of 19 over a five-week span, and looking as good as any team in baseball—suddenly went cold.
First they were swept by the Yankees in New York. Then they followed that up by getting swept yet again; this time by the Blue Jays at home. That was odd; the Red Sox are an impressive 52-25 at Fenway this year, second best in baseball, behind the Yankees.
Ultimately, this is a bad way for a team to enter the playoffs.
Theo Epstein claims he's not concerned, and all that matters is that his team is in the postseason once again.
“If you look at it, I’m sure there’s evidence of teams finishing strong and going on to win the World Series," said the Red Sox GM. "But for every one of those examples, there’s an example of a team finishing strong and getting swept, or a team that lost 15 of its last 18 going into October and winning the World Series. So if you break down the numbers, there’s simply no correlation.’’
Hopefully he's right. In 2007, the Rockies were the hottest team in baseball going into the postseason, and then the World Series. But it didn't matter; the Red Sox swept them in four straight games.
The Red Sox have had some streaky play this year, at one point winning 11 straight games. And their current six-game losing streak ties their season high.
Obviously, a lot will come down to the health of key Sox players, such as Josh Beckett (back), Jon Lester (knee/quad), Mike Lowell (hip), and Kevin Youkilis (back). Injuries to Beckett and Lowell derailed their hopes for another World Series berth last year.
And will Clay Buchholz or Daisuke Matsuzaka prove to be the more reliable third starter? Buchholz seemed to have the spot sewn up until his recent meltdown on Tuesday night.
At times the Sox offense has carried the team this season. At other the times, the offense was impotent and the team won games on the strength of its pitching and defense.
To prevail in the playoffs, they will need it all to come together seamlessly, and to be firing on all cylinders simultaneously.
The Red Sox history against the Angels is a matter of perspective.
History is clearly on the Red Sox' side. But baseball is a numbers game, a game of luck and of odds. The Red Sox had won eleven consecutive playoff games against the Angels (dating back to 1986), before finally losing Game 3 in last year's ALDS. By that point, it was all over but the shouting for Anaheim.
But the odds have to eventually turn in favor of the Angels, don't they? This kind of lopsided playoff winning streak by the Red Sox against the Angels has to come to an end eventually—doesn't it?
The Angles certainly hope so. But the Red Sox would love to see history keep repeating itself.
Well, they didn't actually secure it through their own accord; by losing to the Angels, the Texas Rangers eliminated themselves, allowing the Red Sox entrance into the October sweepstakes.
The outcome sets up a rematch of last year's ALDS between the Red Sox and Angels. It's become something of an October custom; the two clubs have already met three times this decade — 2004, 2007, and 2008.
The Angels will also be making their sixth post-season appearance this decade, and the fourth in the past five years. But aside from 2002, when they won it all, the post-season hasn't been kind to the Angels.
The Red Sox have been their arch nemesis. Going back to 1986, the Red Sox have won four consecutive series. And they have won nine of the ten post-season games played this decade.
The Angels possess a very potent offense; they are first in batting average, second in runs, second in hits, third in on-base percentage, fourth in slugging, and fourth in total bases.
The team from Anaheim has won 93 games so far this season, and clearly sports a balanced attack at the plate. In the past, the Angels' weakness was an inability to score runs; that is a problem no more.
This year, their weakness could be pitching. The Angels have had 14 different people start games this year, and have handed the ball at some point or another to 12 players making their major league debut, both major league highs.
Angels’ closer Brian Fuentes, though leading the AL with 46 saves, also has seven blown saves. In addition, his 4.05 ERA gives him the distinction of being just one of three AL relievers with at least 10 saves to have an ERA over four. And then there’s this; Fuentes’ strikeout rate has declined from 11.78 per nine innings last season to 7.82 this year.
Meanwhile, the Red Sox—who had been on a hot streak, winning 12 of 19 over a five-week span, and looking as good as any team in baseball—suddenly went cold.
First they were swept by the Yankees in New York. Then they followed that up by getting swept yet again; this time by the Blue Jays at home. That was odd; the Red Sox are an impressive 52-25 at Fenway this year, second best in baseball, behind the Yankees.
Ultimately, this is a bad way for a team to enter the playoffs.
Theo Epstein claims he's not concerned, and all that matters is that his team is in the postseason once again.
“If you look at it, I’m sure there’s evidence of teams finishing strong and going on to win the World Series," said the Red Sox GM. "But for every one of those examples, there’s an example of a team finishing strong and getting swept, or a team that lost 15 of its last 18 going into October and winning the World Series. So if you break down the numbers, there’s simply no correlation.’’
Hopefully he's right. In 2007, the Rockies were the hottest team in baseball going into the postseason, and then the World Series. But it didn't matter; the Red Sox swept them in four straight games.
The Red Sox have had some streaky play this year, at one point winning 11 straight games. And their current six-game losing streak ties their season high.
Obviously, a lot will come down to the health of key Sox players, such as Josh Beckett (back), Jon Lester (knee/quad), Mike Lowell (hip), and Kevin Youkilis (back). Injuries to Beckett and Lowell derailed their hopes for another World Series berth last year.
And will Clay Buchholz or Daisuke Matsuzaka prove to be the more reliable third starter? Buchholz seemed to have the spot sewn up until his recent meltdown on Tuesday night.
At times the Sox offense has carried the team this season. At other the times, the offense was impotent and the team won games on the strength of its pitching and defense.
To prevail in the playoffs, they will need it all to come together seamlessly, and to be firing on all cylinders simultaneously.
The Red Sox history against the Angels is a matter of perspective.
History is clearly on the Red Sox' side. But baseball is a numbers game, a game of luck and of odds. The Red Sox had won eleven consecutive playoff games against the Angels (dating back to 1986), before finally losing Game 3 in last year's ALDS. By that point, it was all over but the shouting for Anaheim.
But the odds have to eventually turn in favor of the Angels, don't they? This kind of lopsided playoff winning streak by the Red Sox against the Angels has to come to an end eventually—doesn't it?
The Angles certainly hope so. But the Red Sox would love to see history keep repeating itself.
Thursday, September 24, 2009
Francona #2 in Wins Among Red Sox Managers
But He's #1 in the Post-Season, When it Really Counts
Red Sox manager Terry Francona notched a milestone last night, moving into a second-place tie for most wins by a Red Sox skipper (560).
The Red Sox also reached 90 wins for the third consecutive season, and the fifth time in Terry Francona's six seasons at the helm.
Francona's even-tempered professionalism has a lent a sense of ease and calm to a club playing in a city not traditionally marked by ease and calm.
Baseball is a virtual religion in Boston, and the Sox rabid fan base can at times be described as dour, pessimistic and reactionary. Francona's steady presence has unquestionably been a significant aspect of the team's success since 2004.
The Sox skipper is known as a player's manager and is sometimes loyal to a fault, sticking with his players long after the fans and media have called for them to be benched, traded, or released.
Francona stood by players such as Mark Belhorn, Kevin Millar, Trot Nixon and, most recently, David Ortiz, as they struggled. His confidence and commitment to his players often pays off, and he seems to have earned the loyalty and trust of all.
Rarely has Francona had public run-ins with his players of the type that are at times seen with less level-headed managers.
Jay Payton had to force an uncomfortable confrontation to manipulate his way out of Boston. Francona didn't take the bait; he simply gave Payton the exit he desired.
Francona also took the high road with Pedro Martinez's prima donna act. And the same goes with Manny Ramirez's insufferable, selfish behavior. Francona was happy to be rid of the cancer and move on for the betterment of clubhouse chemistry.
Ever the true professional, Francona keeps team business private and within the clubhouse. How much the fans and media never hear about can only be speculated.
Joe Cronin, the winningest manger in club history, had a 13-year tenure as Red Sox manager and is the only skipper in team history to have exceeded Francona's six years of service.
Despite amassing the second most managerial wins in Red Sox history, Francona's success is without precedent. He won two World Series Championships in his first four seasons, and is the only Boston manager to reach the postseason more than twice; Francona has done it four times and this year will mark the fifth.
No previous Red Sox manager had won 90 games as many as four times, and Francona has now done it in five seasons. And Francona's .583 winning percentage the best winning percentage in team history among managers with 400 or more games.
For all he's achieved, hat's off to Terry Francona. And a hearty thanks from Red Sox Nation.
Most wins by Red Sox managers
Joe Cronin 1,071
Terry Francona 560
Pinky Higgins 560
Bill Carrigan 489
Jimmy Collins 455
Francona's Record with Red Sox
2009 90-61
2008 95-67
2007 96-66
2006 86-76
2005 95-67
2004 98-64
Total 560-401
Red Sox manager Terry Francona notched a milestone last night, moving into a second-place tie for most wins by a Red Sox skipper (560).
The Red Sox also reached 90 wins for the third consecutive season, and the fifth time in Terry Francona's six seasons at the helm.
Francona's even-tempered professionalism has a lent a sense of ease and calm to a club playing in a city not traditionally marked by ease and calm.
Baseball is a virtual religion in Boston, and the Sox rabid fan base can at times be described as dour, pessimistic and reactionary. Francona's steady presence has unquestionably been a significant aspect of the team's success since 2004.
The Sox skipper is known as a player's manager and is sometimes loyal to a fault, sticking with his players long after the fans and media have called for them to be benched, traded, or released.
Francona stood by players such as Mark Belhorn, Kevin Millar, Trot Nixon and, most recently, David Ortiz, as they struggled. His confidence and commitment to his players often pays off, and he seems to have earned the loyalty and trust of all.
Rarely has Francona had public run-ins with his players of the type that are at times seen with less level-headed managers.
Jay Payton had to force an uncomfortable confrontation to manipulate his way out of Boston. Francona didn't take the bait; he simply gave Payton the exit he desired.
Francona also took the high road with Pedro Martinez's prima donna act. And the same goes with Manny Ramirez's insufferable, selfish behavior. Francona was happy to be rid of the cancer and move on for the betterment of clubhouse chemistry.
Ever the true professional, Francona keeps team business private and within the clubhouse. How much the fans and media never hear about can only be speculated.
Joe Cronin, the winningest manger in club history, had a 13-year tenure as Red Sox manager and is the only skipper in team history to have exceeded Francona's six years of service.
Despite amassing the second most managerial wins in Red Sox history, Francona's success is without precedent. He won two World Series Championships in his first four seasons, and is the only Boston manager to reach the postseason more than twice; Francona has done it four times and this year will mark the fifth.
No previous Red Sox manager had won 90 games as many as four times, and Francona has now done it in five seasons. And Francona's .583 winning percentage the best winning percentage in team history among managers with 400 or more games.
For all he's achieved, hat's off to Terry Francona. And a hearty thanks from Red Sox Nation.
Most wins by Red Sox managers
Joe Cronin 1,071
Terry Francona 560
Pinky Higgins 560
Bill Carrigan 489
Jimmy Collins 455
Francona's Record with Red Sox
2009 90-61
2008 95-67
2007 96-66
2006 86-76
2005 95-67
2004 98-64
Total 560-401
Tuesday, September 22, 2009
Jason Bay Set to Become Very Rich Man
Jason Bay has had a productive week. A memorable week. A milestone week. And, likely, a very fortuitous week
On Sunday, Bay turned 31 and, to celebrate, set a new career best with his 110th RBI. Then last night he set another career-best, with his 36 home run.
Bay picked a good season to have a career year; he will become a free agent after the World Series. And he will celebrate once again when he cashes in and signs a very lucrative, long-term pact during the offseason.
The left fielder has been on a tear and could conceivably hit his 40th home run in the Red Sox remaining 13 games. That could push his asking price even higher. At this point, one has to figure that Bay will looking for a minimum of five years and $75 million.
But Bay says he isn't concerned about hitting 40 homers this year, or any year. He says walks and RBI are more important to him. With 89 walks (plus four IBB) and 113 RBI, Bay has plenty to be proud of.
And his 181 HR since 2004 (his Rookie of the Year season) are 15th most in baseball during that period.
For Red Sox fans who didn't follow the National League, or the Prates more specifically, Bay has been a revelation. The guy is hella good.
And that will make him one of the most sought after free agents this offseason. Bay is younger and better than most of the other left fielders who will be vying for contracts.
Here's an alphabetical listing of the upcoming free agent left fielders, with their ages in parenthesis:
Garret Anderson (38)
Marlon Anderson (36)
Jason Bay (31)
Emil Brown (35)
Marlon Byrd (32)
Carl Crawford (28) - $10M club option with a $1.25M buyout
Johnny Damon (36)
David Dellucci (36)
Cliff Floyd (37)
Matt Holliday (30)
Reed Johnson (33)
Jacque Jones (35)
Gabe Kapler (34)
Greg Norton (37)
Wily Mo Pena (28)
Manny Ramirez (38) - $20M player option
Gary Sheffield (41)
Fernando Tatis (35)
Randy Winn (36)
Garret Anderson, Damon, Holliday, and Ramirez are all Scott Boras clients. Considering their age and other factors, it's hard to imagine any of them coming, or coming back, to Boston.
Crawford, Pena and Holiday are the only players younger than Bay in this group. But Holliday appears better suited for the NL after his underwhelming stint with Oakland this season. Pena hardly appears suited suited for the Majors Leagues—period—and the Sox already gave up him. Crawford is fast, great defensively, and is a career .295 hitter (.307 this season). But he doesn't hit for power, which is what the Red Sox need from their left fielder.
Despite his 21 home runs this season, JD Drew is not a true power hitter; he hadn't hit 20 since 2006 (with the Dodgers) and has hit 30 just once. In addition, Jacoby Ellsbury also isn't a power hitter (20 career HR). So the Red Sox need some thump from their left fielder.
Bay seems comfortable in Boston and has said he enjoys playing there. Being on a contender has got to feel rejuvenating after suffering through the continual grind of a languishing Pittsburgh team for 4 1/2 years.
Most of Bay's fellow free agents will be too old, or not of high enough caliber, for the Red Sox to give them serious consideration. Marlon Byrd could be an exception.
Byrd is 32, and is having a solid season; 17 HR, 79 RBI, 42 2B, .283/.325/..472
Yet he simply isn't as talented as Bay.
And that's why the Red Sox, short of a blockbuster trade, are going to re-sign Bay. The Sox' left fielder started the season scorching hot, cooled after the break, and has since resumed his torrid pace. He will have a lot of leverage in contract negotiations this winter.
For whatever reason, Bay and the Red Sox were unable to reach a mutually beneficial agreement during in-season negotiations, and that will be to Bay's benefit this winter.
The Red Sox used the potential of a widespread economic collapse as their reason for not extending Bay during last offseason. Oddly, they will have to hope for such a calamity to avoid paying Bay a significant salary this time.
Ask yourself this; if JD Drew is worth five-years and $70 million, just how much is Jason Bay worth?
That's the question Bay will surely pose to the Red Sox this winter.
On Sunday, Bay turned 31 and, to celebrate, set a new career best with his 110th RBI. Then last night he set another career-best, with his 36 home run.
Bay picked a good season to have a career year; he will become a free agent after the World Series. And he will celebrate once again when he cashes in and signs a very lucrative, long-term pact during the offseason.
The left fielder has been on a tear and could conceivably hit his 40th home run in the Red Sox remaining 13 games. That could push his asking price even higher. At this point, one has to figure that Bay will looking for a minimum of five years and $75 million.
But Bay says he isn't concerned about hitting 40 homers this year, or any year. He says walks and RBI are more important to him. With 89 walks (plus four IBB) and 113 RBI, Bay has plenty to be proud of.
And his 181 HR since 2004 (his Rookie of the Year season) are 15th most in baseball during that period.
For Red Sox fans who didn't follow the National League, or the Prates more specifically, Bay has been a revelation. The guy is hella good.
And that will make him one of the most sought after free agents this offseason. Bay is younger and better than most of the other left fielders who will be vying for contracts.
Here's an alphabetical listing of the upcoming free agent left fielders, with their ages in parenthesis:
Garret Anderson (38)
Marlon Anderson (36)
Jason Bay (31)
Emil Brown (35)
Marlon Byrd (32)
Carl Crawford (28) - $10M club option with a $1.25M buyout
Johnny Damon (36)
David Dellucci (36)
Cliff Floyd (37)
Matt Holliday (30)
Reed Johnson (33)
Jacque Jones (35)
Gabe Kapler (34)
Greg Norton (37)
Wily Mo Pena (28)
Manny Ramirez (38) - $20M player option
Gary Sheffield (41)
Fernando Tatis (35)
Randy Winn (36)
Garret Anderson, Damon, Holliday, and Ramirez are all Scott Boras clients. Considering their age and other factors, it's hard to imagine any of them coming, or coming back, to Boston.
Crawford, Pena and Holiday are the only players younger than Bay in this group. But Holliday appears better suited for the NL after his underwhelming stint with Oakland this season. Pena hardly appears suited suited for the Majors Leagues—period—and the Sox already gave up him. Crawford is fast, great defensively, and is a career .295 hitter (.307 this season). But he doesn't hit for power, which is what the Red Sox need from their left fielder.
Despite his 21 home runs this season, JD Drew is not a true power hitter; he hadn't hit 20 since 2006 (with the Dodgers) and has hit 30 just once. In addition, Jacoby Ellsbury also isn't a power hitter (20 career HR). So the Red Sox need some thump from their left fielder.
Bay seems comfortable in Boston and has said he enjoys playing there. Being on a contender has got to feel rejuvenating after suffering through the continual grind of a languishing Pittsburgh team for 4 1/2 years.
Most of Bay's fellow free agents will be too old, or not of high enough caliber, for the Red Sox to give them serious consideration. Marlon Byrd could be an exception.
Byrd is 32, and is having a solid season; 17 HR, 79 RBI, 42 2B, .283/.325/..472
Yet he simply isn't as talented as Bay.
And that's why the Red Sox, short of a blockbuster trade, are going to re-sign Bay. The Sox' left fielder started the season scorching hot, cooled after the break, and has since resumed his torrid pace. He will have a lot of leverage in contract negotiations this winter.
For whatever reason, Bay and the Red Sox were unable to reach a mutually beneficial agreement during in-season negotiations, and that will be to Bay's benefit this winter.
The Red Sox used the potential of a widespread economic collapse as their reason for not extending Bay during last offseason. Oddly, they will have to hope for such a calamity to avoid paying Bay a significant salary this time.
Ask yourself this; if JD Drew is worth five-years and $70 million, just how much is Jason Bay worth?
That's the question Bay will surely pose to the Red Sox this winter.
Monday, September 21, 2009
Red Sox Rotation Appears Locked In & Locked Down
With 14 games remaining in the regular season, the Red Sox finally seem to have their starting pitching in order, and perhaps even their playoff rotation set.
It's been a long time coming.
The Red Sox started the year reputed as having the best pitching depth in baseball. Yet, that notion seemed patently absurd over the past few months.
From the very beginning, Brad Penny was never cut out for the AL, particularly the AL East. Daisuke Matsuzaka was ineffective before going on the DL with a weakened shoulder. John Smoltz looked old, lacking in command, and utterly baffled on the mound. And Tim Wakefield broke down for the third year in a row, likely the result of being in his early 40s.
All of a sudden, the Red Sox had fallen out of first place, were slumping badly, and their playoff hopes razor thin.
But over the past month or so, the rotation has settled into a rhythm, and the Red Sox ship has been righted as it sails toward October.
What happened to account for this change for the better?
Smoltz and Penny were jettisoned, Clay Buchholz started to deliver on the promise that had been held out for so long, and Matsuzaka has returned rested and fresh.
But most importantly, Josh Beckett and Jon Lester have established themselves as a premier one-two punch in a rotation that desperately needed stability and consistency. They are the foundation that the rest of the staff is built upon. And their confidence and leadership seem to be having a positive affect.
Over their last two starts each, this is how the Red Sox quartet of young pitchers have fared:
Beckett
5 innings, 1 ER
8 innings, 3 ER
Lester
8 innings, 0 ER
6 innings, 3 ER
Buchholz
7 innings, 1 ER
6 innings, 1 ER
Matsuzaka
6 innings, 0 ER
5.1 innings, 3 ER
Cumulatively, the four Red Sox starters have combined for 51.1 innings over eight starts, allowing just 12 earned runs.
Odds are, that group comprises the Red Sox post-season rotation.
Tim Wakefield, who will pitch tonight, likely can't be relied upon. Despite his impressive first half, Wakefield has been weakened and sidelined by sciatica. He returned gamely for an excellent start in is last outing, only to be shelved once more. Tonight is another test.
It may break Terry Francona's heart, but it's hard to imagine Wakefield making the playoff roster, much less starting in the post-season.
The real question then is who will comprise the three-man rotation that Francona will likely utilize in the playoffs? Will is be the greener, less experienced, but red hot Buccholz, or the more experienced, yet still unproven (in 2009, at the least) Matsuzaka?
My guess is that Francona will go with Buchholz, given Matsuzaka's issues this year, and his less than stellar start yesterday (5.1 innings, nine base runners allowed, 110 pitches). Of course that could change if Buchholz blows up in his next start, or if Matsuzaka shines in his next appearance.
One way or the other, as long as Matsuzaka's shoulder issues are behind him, the Sox will enter the post-season with three young, healthy, and potentially dominant pitchers. That bodes well for a team with genuine World Series aspirations.
It's been a long time coming.
The Red Sox started the year reputed as having the best pitching depth in baseball. Yet, that notion seemed patently absurd over the past few months.
From the very beginning, Brad Penny was never cut out for the AL, particularly the AL East. Daisuke Matsuzaka was ineffective before going on the DL with a weakened shoulder. John Smoltz looked old, lacking in command, and utterly baffled on the mound. And Tim Wakefield broke down for the third year in a row, likely the result of being in his early 40s.
All of a sudden, the Red Sox had fallen out of first place, were slumping badly, and their playoff hopes razor thin.
But over the past month or so, the rotation has settled into a rhythm, and the Red Sox ship has been righted as it sails toward October.
What happened to account for this change for the better?
Smoltz and Penny were jettisoned, Clay Buchholz started to deliver on the promise that had been held out for so long, and Matsuzaka has returned rested and fresh.
But most importantly, Josh Beckett and Jon Lester have established themselves as a premier one-two punch in a rotation that desperately needed stability and consistency. They are the foundation that the rest of the staff is built upon. And their confidence and leadership seem to be having a positive affect.
Over their last two starts each, this is how the Red Sox quartet of young pitchers have fared:
Beckett
5 innings, 1 ER
8 innings, 3 ER
Lester
8 innings, 0 ER
6 innings, 3 ER
Buchholz
7 innings, 1 ER
6 innings, 1 ER
Matsuzaka
6 innings, 0 ER
5.1 innings, 3 ER
Cumulatively, the four Red Sox starters have combined for 51.1 innings over eight starts, allowing just 12 earned runs.
Odds are, that group comprises the Red Sox post-season rotation.
Tim Wakefield, who will pitch tonight, likely can't be relied upon. Despite his impressive first half, Wakefield has been weakened and sidelined by sciatica. He returned gamely for an excellent start in is last outing, only to be shelved once more. Tonight is another test.
It may break Terry Francona's heart, but it's hard to imagine Wakefield making the playoff roster, much less starting in the post-season.
The real question then is who will comprise the three-man rotation that Francona will likely utilize in the playoffs? Will is be the greener, less experienced, but red hot Buccholz, or the more experienced, yet still unproven (in 2009, at the least) Matsuzaka?
My guess is that Francona will go with Buchholz, given Matsuzaka's issues this year, and his less than stellar start yesterday (5.1 innings, nine base runners allowed, 110 pitches). Of course that could change if Buchholz blows up in his next start, or if Matsuzaka shines in his next appearance.
One way or the other, as long as Matsuzaka's shoulder issues are behind him, the Sox will enter the post-season with three young, healthy, and potentially dominant pitchers. That bodes well for a team with genuine World Series aspirations.
Tuesday, September 15, 2009
Matsuzaka's Arrival: Better Late Than Never
Watching Daisuke Matsuzaka shut out the powerful Angels lineup for six plus innings was undoubtedly heartening to the Red Sox.
For starters, Matsuzaka made it into the seventh inning for the first time this season. Matsuzaka, who turned 29 just two days earlier, had failed to do so in any of his previous eight starts.
The reason he was finally able to get that deep into the game was effectiveness; 70% of the hitters Dice-K faced tonight had two strikes on them within the first three pitches.
And on those rare occasions when Matsuzaka got behind in the count, opponents batted just .167 against him. In his first eight starts it was .391.
The other reason Dice-K made into the seventh for the first time was economy; the righty threw just 93 pitches, 52 of them for strikes.
Matsuzaka's average fastball was clocked at 91 mph, the same as in his first eight starts before before going on the DL.
On six occasions the Angels put a runner in scoring position against Matsuzaka, and all six times he kept them from scoring.
With Tim Wakefield's status uncertain, Matsuzaka's great outing was the good news the Red Sox needed right now. The playoffs are just over three weeks away, and Wakefield may not pitch again this year.
The strength disparity between Wakefield's legs is obvious to his coaches, and Terry Francona said of his injury, "it's certainly not getting better."
So, Matsuzaka's first quality start of the season couldn't have come at a more opportune time. For his part, Matsuzaka returned lighter and in better shape than at any other point this season.
The Red Sox will need this version of Matsuzaka down the stretch.
Incredibly, aside from Wakefield, Clay Buchholz, Jon Lester and Josh Beckett, Red Sox starters had a total of just three outs after the sixth inning this entire season.
But now, over the last four games, Beckett, Buchholz, Lester and Matsuzaka have allowed a total of just one run, as they prepare for the post-season.
It appears that the Sox staff is getting in synch at just the right time.
For starters, Matsuzaka made it into the seventh inning for the first time this season. Matsuzaka, who turned 29 just two days earlier, had failed to do so in any of his previous eight starts.
The reason he was finally able to get that deep into the game was effectiveness; 70% of the hitters Dice-K faced tonight had two strikes on them within the first three pitches.
And on those rare occasions when Matsuzaka got behind in the count, opponents batted just .167 against him. In his first eight starts it was .391.
The other reason Dice-K made into the seventh for the first time was economy; the righty threw just 93 pitches, 52 of them for strikes.
Matsuzaka's average fastball was clocked at 91 mph, the same as in his first eight starts before before going on the DL.
On six occasions the Angels put a runner in scoring position against Matsuzaka, and all six times he kept them from scoring.
With Tim Wakefield's status uncertain, Matsuzaka's great outing was the good news the Red Sox needed right now. The playoffs are just over three weeks away, and Wakefield may not pitch again this year.
The strength disparity between Wakefield's legs is obvious to his coaches, and Terry Francona said of his injury, "it's certainly not getting better."
So, Matsuzaka's first quality start of the season couldn't have come at a more opportune time. For his part, Matsuzaka returned lighter and in better shape than at any other point this season.
The Red Sox will need this version of Matsuzaka down the stretch.
Incredibly, aside from Wakefield, Clay Buchholz, Jon Lester and Josh Beckett, Red Sox starters had a total of just three outs after the sixth inning this entire season.
But now, over the last four games, Beckett, Buchholz, Lester and Matsuzaka have allowed a total of just one run, as they prepare for the post-season.
It appears that the Sox staff is getting in synch at just the right time.
Friday, September 11, 2009
Lester Securing His Place Amongst Red Sox Lefties
In just four seasons (only two of them full campaigns), Jon Lester has already put a few notches in his belt: a no-hitter, World Series Game Four winner, and club record for strikeouts in a season by a lefty (204).
Bruce Hurst, the last great Red Sox lefty prior to Lester, previously held the mark for 22 years with 191 Ks.
Having already surpassed Hurst's team record, Lester moved into even more elite company in his last start, becoming just the 10th pitcher in team history to record 200 strikeouts in a season, and the first lefty to do so.
Here's a list of those 10 Red Sox pitchers with 200 K seasons:
Jon Lester
Daisuke Matsuzaka
Curt Schilling
Pedro Martinez
Hideo Nomo
Roger Clemens
Luis Tiant
Jim Longborg
Joe Wood
Cy Young
Lester's 204 Ks are third in the AL and fifth in the Majors. His 3.44 ERA is eighth in the AL and his 20 quality starts are tied for third in the AL.
Having clearly established himself as one of the top lefties in the game today, Lester's rapidly growing list of accomplishments—achieved in such a brief period—already qualify him as one of the best in Red Sox history. In fact, his 7.8 K/9 innings is the best of any lefty in club history.
Other notable Sox lefties have included: Mel Parnell (123 wins), Lefty Grove (105 wins), Bill Lee (94 wins), Dutch Leonard (90 wins), Babe Ruth (89 wins), and Hurst (88 wins).
Parnell's club record for wins by a lefty seems to be within Lester's grasp. At age 25, Lester already has 39 victories. No lefty in team history had won as many games by the age of 25.
With 16 wins last year and 12 so far this year, it seems reasonable that Lester could average 15 wins per season. If he manages that rate, he would surpass Parnell in 2015 at the age of 31.
That would surely secure his status as the best Red Sox lefty of all time.
Bruce Hurst, the last great Red Sox lefty prior to Lester, previously held the mark for 22 years with 191 Ks.
Having already surpassed Hurst's team record, Lester moved into even more elite company in his last start, becoming just the 10th pitcher in team history to record 200 strikeouts in a season, and the first lefty to do so.
Here's a list of those 10 Red Sox pitchers with 200 K seasons:
Jon Lester
Daisuke Matsuzaka
Curt Schilling
Pedro Martinez
Hideo Nomo
Roger Clemens
Luis Tiant
Jim Longborg
Joe Wood
Cy Young
Lester's 204 Ks are third in the AL and fifth in the Majors. His 3.44 ERA is eighth in the AL and his 20 quality starts are tied for third in the AL.
Having clearly established himself as one of the top lefties in the game today, Lester's rapidly growing list of accomplishments—achieved in such a brief period—already qualify him as one of the best in Red Sox history. In fact, his 7.8 K/9 innings is the best of any lefty in club history.
Other notable Sox lefties have included: Mel Parnell (123 wins), Lefty Grove (105 wins), Bill Lee (94 wins), Dutch Leonard (90 wins), Babe Ruth (89 wins), and Hurst (88 wins).
Parnell's club record for wins by a lefty seems to be within Lester's grasp. At age 25, Lester already has 39 victories. No lefty in team history had won as many games by the age of 25.
With 16 wins last year and 12 so far this year, it seems reasonable that Lester could average 15 wins per season. If he manages that rate, he would surpass Parnell in 2015 at the age of 31.
That would surely secure his status as the best Red Sox lefty of all time.
Wednesday, September 02, 2009
Crunch Time for Beckett and the Red Sox
For much of the season, Josh Beckett has been totally dominant and looked like a Cy Young candidate.
Beckett leads the Sox' rotation with 175.1 innings, and has allowed just 155 hits while fanning 163 batters.
But then, in August, Beckett began getting rocked.
Coming into his last start, Beckett had been battered in two consecutive outings, resulting in an 0-1 record and 10.12 ERA. In 13 1/3 innings, he had allowed 18 hits, 15 runs, and 8 homers. Opponents had batted .316 against him with an .807 slugging percentage and a 1.129 OPS.
Incredibly, in the midst of these beatings, Beckett had issued just one walk, meaning that opposing hitters were simply teeing off against him.
The Sox were hoping Beckett would return to form in his most recent start against Toronto last week. Instead, they got more of the same from him.
In that start, Beckett lasted just five innings, giving up five runs on five hits, while issuing a season-high five walks. While he did strike out nine Blue Jays, Beckett didn't look like the pitcher who had dominated opposing hitters most of the season.
What's going on?
The Red Sox believe his problems are rooted in his mechanics, the same problems that plagued him earlier this season. Beckett has been over-throwing, which has affected his delivery. The depth on his curve ball has diminished, as has the command on his fastball, which has been staying up in the strike zone. That's resulted in the wealth of home runs he's allowed in his recent outings.
Over his last four starts, Beckett has allowed a whopping 12 homers, after surrendering just 10 in his previous 22 starts this season.
The big righty is 0-1 in his last three starts, and his ERA, which had been 3.10 in his first 23 starts, has reached a whopping 9.82 over his last three outings. These three consecutive dismal performances have likely dropped him out of Cy Young contention.
It's as if he completed a 180˚ turn in August, forgetting all that had led him to success earlier in the season.
That does not bode well for the Red Sox post-season aspirations. As Beckett goes, so go the Red Sox. Without an effective Beckett on the mound, the Sox don't stand a chance in October, assuming they even get that far.
Undoubtedly, pitching coach John Farrell has been working furiously with Beckett to get his mechanics sorted out, and the process has been going on for weeks. Now it's crunch time. The calendar has turned to September and the regular season ends just one month from Friday.
That leaves little time to get it right. But considering Beckett's history and his tough and determined nature, it's hard to bet against him. Beckett is simply suffering through a late season swoon. Yet, while a slump was easier to contend with in April, if it continues in September it will be crushing to the Red Sox and their playoff hopes.
We'll know more tonight, as Beckett makes his 27th start of the 2009 campaign against the Rays in Tampa.
The defending AL champs should pose an interesting challenge for Boston's ace; they are fourth in the AL in runs, home runs and on-base percentage, and fifth in slugging.
They are also just 3.5 games behind the Red Sox in the Wild Card standings.
Will the real Josh Beckett please stand up?
Beckett leads the Sox' rotation with 175.1 innings, and has allowed just 155 hits while fanning 163 batters.
But then, in August, Beckett began getting rocked.
Coming into his last start, Beckett had been battered in two consecutive outings, resulting in an 0-1 record and 10.12 ERA. In 13 1/3 innings, he had allowed 18 hits, 15 runs, and 8 homers. Opponents had batted .316 against him with an .807 slugging percentage and a 1.129 OPS.
Incredibly, in the midst of these beatings, Beckett had issued just one walk, meaning that opposing hitters were simply teeing off against him.
The Sox were hoping Beckett would return to form in his most recent start against Toronto last week. Instead, they got more of the same from him.
In that start, Beckett lasted just five innings, giving up five runs on five hits, while issuing a season-high five walks. While he did strike out nine Blue Jays, Beckett didn't look like the pitcher who had dominated opposing hitters most of the season.
What's going on?
The Red Sox believe his problems are rooted in his mechanics, the same problems that plagued him earlier this season. Beckett has been over-throwing, which has affected his delivery. The depth on his curve ball has diminished, as has the command on his fastball, which has been staying up in the strike zone. That's resulted in the wealth of home runs he's allowed in his recent outings.
Over his last four starts, Beckett has allowed a whopping 12 homers, after surrendering just 10 in his previous 22 starts this season.
The big righty is 0-1 in his last three starts, and his ERA, which had been 3.10 in his first 23 starts, has reached a whopping 9.82 over his last three outings. These three consecutive dismal performances have likely dropped him out of Cy Young contention.
It's as if he completed a 180˚ turn in August, forgetting all that had led him to success earlier in the season.
That does not bode well for the Red Sox post-season aspirations. As Beckett goes, so go the Red Sox. Without an effective Beckett on the mound, the Sox don't stand a chance in October, assuming they even get that far.
Undoubtedly, pitching coach John Farrell has been working furiously with Beckett to get his mechanics sorted out, and the process has been going on for weeks. Now it's crunch time. The calendar has turned to September and the regular season ends just one month from Friday.
That leaves little time to get it right. But considering Beckett's history and his tough and determined nature, it's hard to bet against him. Beckett is simply suffering through a late season swoon. Yet, while a slump was easier to contend with in April, if it continues in September it will be crushing to the Red Sox and their playoff hopes.
We'll know more tonight, as Beckett makes his 27th start of the 2009 campaign against the Rays in Tampa.
The defending AL champs should pose an interesting challenge for Boston's ace; they are fourth in the AL in runs, home runs and on-base percentage, and fifth in slugging.
They are also just 3.5 games behind the Red Sox in the Wild Card standings.
Will the real Josh Beckett please stand up?
Tuesday, August 25, 2009
Wagner Power Painter Should Help Red Sox
Billy Wagner joining the Red Sox makes sense for all involved parties.
The Mets are off the hook for the remainder of the nearly $3.5 million owed to him this year. Wagner gets to join a team in a pennant race that has genuine World Series aspirations. And the Red Sox get an additional lefty veteran to pair with Hideki Okajima in their bullpen.
Wagner, a six-time All-Star, has 385 career saves, which is sixth all time. The 5’10” flame thrower has been a beast throughout his career, possessing a 2.39 career ERA and 1,070 strikeouts in 820 innings. That is a phenomenal strikeout to innings ratio. And opponents are batting a paltry .189 against him.
Reportedly, the Sox didn’t have to give up much in return—just two minor leaguers to be named later, only one of whom is on the 40-man roster. And neither is expected to be an upper level prospect.
Having another lefty, especially a power lefty, will really help Terry Francona and the Sox down the stretch. The two keys to the deal are these: the offense has to continue to produce, giving the bullpen comfortable leads to hold, and Wagner needs to be healthy.
To that end, Wagner has been clocked in the mid-90s in his two appearances since his return. That’s a reason for optimism, and surely why the Red Sox felt confident in making the move.
But they were equally confident about Eric Gagne two seasons ago, and he had two-thirds of a season behind him to prove that he was both healthy and effective. That didn’t work out too well. And Wagner has made just two appearances—both in the past week—since rehabbing and recovering from Tommy John (elbow ligament) surgery last September.
Wagner wants to protect his elbow from re-injury. Yet, over the next six weeks (and hopefully more), he also wants to showcase the health of his elbow and prove that he still has closer stuff.
The Sox also want to protect their invest down the stretch, and won’t use him in back-to-back games. But what about October, when it’s all-or-nothing, do-or-die? Whose interests will the Sox put up front, theirs or Wagner’s? If they’re not planning on re-signing him, Wagner’s health won’t be nearly as big a concern to them as to him.
How fully his elbow has healed in the intervening 11 months is yet to be determined, but his two appearances so far—though a very small sample—are promising. In those two appearances, Wagner pitched two innings, giving up no hits, no runs, and one walk, while striking out four.
And Wagner has a lot riding on this himself. He asked the Red Sox to promise not to pick up his option for next season so that he can try to secure a longer, more lucrative pact elsewhere. Considering that Wagner is 38, it will likely be the last long term deal he ever signs, and he wants to cash in big one last time.
Initially, Wagner also wanted the Sox to promise not to offer him arbitration next year, making him more desirable to other clubs. But the Mets were under no such obligation to make such an offer and would surely have done so in an effort to get two compensatory draft picks when he signs elsewhere.
It’s important to note that there is no guarantee that Wagner will be classified as a Type A free agent. Wagner’s lengthy absence and significant injury could affect that. If he doesn’t pitch well for the Sox down the stretch, he would almost certainly lose that status.
The Sox were expecting Eric Gagne to be a Type A free agent after the 2007 season, but he was eventually listed as a Type B, giving the Sox just one compensatory draft pick when he signed with the Brewers.
The point is, there are no guarantees regarding future compensation. The Sox can only hope to get two players if Wagner signs elsewhere, and that they are better than the two minor leaguers they parted with to acquire the former All-Star.
In the meantime, Wagner will get to know his teammates and try to blend in with the reportedly excellent clubhouse chemistry in Boston. His introduction to Jonathan Papelbon should be interesting.
Papelbon now says his remarks questioning Wagner's readiness to pitch were "taken out of content."
Verbiage aside, how could his remarks possibly have been taken out of context? He was specifically talking about Billy Wagner potentially joining the Red Sox, and his entire quote was attributed.
Papelbon has never been accused of being a genius.
Athletes always use that same lame excuse; "My words were taken out of context," as if that somehow negates what they previously said.
In Papelbon's case, they were taken out of content. That's another matter entirely.
For the Wagner acquisition to pay off, he has to prove that he is fully recovered. The Sox offense, defense, and starting pitching will all have to do their parts as well. Time will tell.
The next six weeks will be a proving ground for both Billy Wagner and the Red Sox—and hopefully a mutually beneficial time as well.
Copyright © 2009 Sean M. Kennedy. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the author’s consent.
The Mets are off the hook for the remainder of the nearly $3.5 million owed to him this year. Wagner gets to join a team in a pennant race that has genuine World Series aspirations. And the Red Sox get an additional lefty veteran to pair with Hideki Okajima in their bullpen.
Wagner, a six-time All-Star, has 385 career saves, which is sixth all time. The 5’10” flame thrower has been a beast throughout his career, possessing a 2.39 career ERA and 1,070 strikeouts in 820 innings. That is a phenomenal strikeout to innings ratio. And opponents are batting a paltry .189 against him.
Reportedly, the Sox didn’t have to give up much in return—just two minor leaguers to be named later, only one of whom is on the 40-man roster. And neither is expected to be an upper level prospect.
Having another lefty, especially a power lefty, will really help Terry Francona and the Sox down the stretch. The two keys to the deal are these: the offense has to continue to produce, giving the bullpen comfortable leads to hold, and Wagner needs to be healthy.
To that end, Wagner has been clocked in the mid-90s in his two appearances since his return. That’s a reason for optimism, and surely why the Red Sox felt confident in making the move.
But they were equally confident about Eric Gagne two seasons ago, and he had two-thirds of a season behind him to prove that he was both healthy and effective. That didn’t work out too well. And Wagner has made just two appearances—both in the past week—since rehabbing and recovering from Tommy John (elbow ligament) surgery last September.
Wagner wants to protect his elbow from re-injury. Yet, over the next six weeks (and hopefully more), he also wants to showcase the health of his elbow and prove that he still has closer stuff.
The Sox also want to protect their invest down the stretch, and won’t use him in back-to-back games. But what about October, when it’s all-or-nothing, do-or-die? Whose interests will the Sox put up front, theirs or Wagner’s? If they’re not planning on re-signing him, Wagner’s health won’t be nearly as big a concern to them as to him.
How fully his elbow has healed in the intervening 11 months is yet to be determined, but his two appearances so far—though a very small sample—are promising. In those two appearances, Wagner pitched two innings, giving up no hits, no runs, and one walk, while striking out four.
And Wagner has a lot riding on this himself. He asked the Red Sox to promise not to pick up his option for next season so that he can try to secure a longer, more lucrative pact elsewhere. Considering that Wagner is 38, it will likely be the last long term deal he ever signs, and he wants to cash in big one last time.
Initially, Wagner also wanted the Sox to promise not to offer him arbitration next year, making him more desirable to other clubs. But the Mets were under no such obligation to make such an offer and would surely have done so in an effort to get two compensatory draft picks when he signs elsewhere.
It’s important to note that there is no guarantee that Wagner will be classified as a Type A free agent. Wagner’s lengthy absence and significant injury could affect that. If he doesn’t pitch well for the Sox down the stretch, he would almost certainly lose that status.
The Sox were expecting Eric Gagne to be a Type A free agent after the 2007 season, but he was eventually listed as a Type B, giving the Sox just one compensatory draft pick when he signed with the Brewers.
The point is, there are no guarantees regarding future compensation. The Sox can only hope to get two players if Wagner signs elsewhere, and that they are better than the two minor leaguers they parted with to acquire the former All-Star.
In the meantime, Wagner will get to know his teammates and try to blend in with the reportedly excellent clubhouse chemistry in Boston. His introduction to Jonathan Papelbon should be interesting.
Papelbon now says his remarks questioning Wagner's readiness to pitch were "taken out of content."
Verbiage aside, how could his remarks possibly have been taken out of context? He was specifically talking about Billy Wagner potentially joining the Red Sox, and his entire quote was attributed.
Papelbon has never been accused of being a genius.
Athletes always use that same lame excuse; "My words were taken out of context," as if that somehow negates what they previously said.
In Papelbon's case, they were taken out of content. That's another matter entirely.
For the Wagner acquisition to pay off, he has to prove that he is fully recovered. The Sox offense, defense, and starting pitching will all have to do their parts as well. Time will tell.
The next six weeks will be a proving ground for both Billy Wagner and the Red Sox—and hopefully a mutually beneficial time as well.
Copyright © 2009 Sean M. Kennedy. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the author’s consent.
Friday, August 21, 2009
Tarnished Penny: Brad Penny Hurts Red Sox and Must Go
At this point, it's reasonable to ask if Brad Penny will, or should, ever make another start for the Red Sox.
Against the Yankees on Friday night, Penny lasted just four innings, allowing eight earned runs on 10 hits. In all, the burly righty allowed 11 base runners and recorded just 12 outs in his rather brief outing.
With the loss, Penny's record now stands at 7-8, making him the only Sox pitcher with a minimum of 10 starts that has a losing record.
As further evidence of his futility, Penny's ERA jumped to a bloated 5.61, which is 37th in the AL.
At this point, Penny can only be described as an outright bust for the Red Sox. He has just one win in his past 11 starts, to go along with a 6.37 ERA during that span, dating back to June 23.
Not once in his 24 starts this season has Penny made it through the seventh inning, the worst streak in the Majors. It is a level of ineptitude not experienced by a Red Sox pitcher since 1954.
It is part of a disturbing and long term trend; Penny has not finished the seveth inning since May 24, 2008.
With such consistently brief outings, Penny has been a drain on the Sox' bullpen all season.
Over 131.2 innings this year, Penny has given up 160 hits (7th in AL) and 42 walks. Those 202 base runners have resulted in a 1.53 WHIP.
Far too often, Penny lets batters reach base, and ultimately too many of them score. Opponents are batting .351 against him, and his 82 earned runs are tied for third in the AL.
With Tim Wakefield due back next week, and Paul Byrd close behind, you have to wonder if the Red Sox have seen enough of Penny and are ready to move on. The activation of either pitcher will necessitate a corresponding roster move, and Penny could well be the odd man out.
Indeed, Junichi Tazawa is young and green, and he was forced into action way too soon. At the least, it was far sooner than the Red Sox had planned for or wanted, But at this point, even he may be a better proposition than Penny.
We'll know more about Tazawa's readiness during his start against the challenging Yankee lineup this afternoon.
To this point, the young Japanese righty has managed three brief outings, and surely has an innings limit.
The Sox are also anticipating the return of Daisuke Matsuzaka next month. But, like Penny, he too can only be relied on for limited innings, despite allowing a wealth of runs.
Something has got to give. It's impossible for the Red Sox to maintain playoff hopes with three starters who can't consistently pitch at least six innings.
The Sox can't go on like this with Penny any longer. There's only so much room on the roster and they need an innings eater. It's a good bet that either Wakefield or Byrd will give them more than Penny can.
The Sox rolled the dice on Penny and it hasn't worked out. Okay, you could day it's backfired miserably.
One way or the other, Penny hurts the Sox more than he helps and it's time for them to cut bait and move on before he causes any further damage.
The bullpen, and the team as a whole, can't take any more of Brad Penny.
Against the Yankees on Friday night, Penny lasted just four innings, allowing eight earned runs on 10 hits. In all, the burly righty allowed 11 base runners and recorded just 12 outs in his rather brief outing.
With the loss, Penny's record now stands at 7-8, making him the only Sox pitcher with a minimum of 10 starts that has a losing record.
As further evidence of his futility, Penny's ERA jumped to a bloated 5.61, which is 37th in the AL.
At this point, Penny can only be described as an outright bust for the Red Sox. He has just one win in his past 11 starts, to go along with a 6.37 ERA during that span, dating back to June 23.
Not once in his 24 starts this season has Penny made it through the seventh inning, the worst streak in the Majors. It is a level of ineptitude not experienced by a Red Sox pitcher since 1954.
It is part of a disturbing and long term trend; Penny has not finished the seveth inning since May 24, 2008.
With such consistently brief outings, Penny has been a drain on the Sox' bullpen all season.
Over 131.2 innings this year, Penny has given up 160 hits (7th in AL) and 42 walks. Those 202 base runners have resulted in a 1.53 WHIP.
Far too often, Penny lets batters reach base, and ultimately too many of them score. Opponents are batting .351 against him, and his 82 earned runs are tied for third in the AL.
With Tim Wakefield due back next week, and Paul Byrd close behind, you have to wonder if the Red Sox have seen enough of Penny and are ready to move on. The activation of either pitcher will necessitate a corresponding roster move, and Penny could well be the odd man out.
Indeed, Junichi Tazawa is young and green, and he was forced into action way too soon. At the least, it was far sooner than the Red Sox had planned for or wanted, But at this point, even he may be a better proposition than Penny.
We'll know more about Tazawa's readiness during his start against the challenging Yankee lineup this afternoon.
To this point, the young Japanese righty has managed three brief outings, and surely has an innings limit.
The Sox are also anticipating the return of Daisuke Matsuzaka next month. But, like Penny, he too can only be relied on for limited innings, despite allowing a wealth of runs.
Something has got to give. It's impossible for the Red Sox to maintain playoff hopes with three starters who can't consistently pitch at least six innings.
The Sox can't go on like this with Penny any longer. There's only so much room on the roster and they need an innings eater. It's a good bet that either Wakefield or Byrd will give them more than Penny can.
The Sox rolled the dice on Penny and it hasn't worked out. Okay, you could day it's backfired miserably.
One way or the other, Penny hurts the Sox more than he helps and it's time for them to cut bait and move on before he causes any further damage.
The bullpen, and the team as a whole, can't take any more of Brad Penny.
Tuesday, August 18, 2009
Red Sox Don't Look Like a Playoff Team
With 45 games left in the season, the Red Sox find themselves in an unexpected position — fighting for a playoff spot.
Once possessing the best record in the AL, the Red Sox have hit the skids and are now one game behind the Rangers in the Wild Card hunt.
At the All Star break, the Sox were 20 games over .500 and held a three-game lead over the Yankees. As recently as July 19, they were still in first place.
However, the Sox have fallen flat and appear out of gas. Boston is 6-9 this month, and 12-17 since the break. Once viewed as the premier team in the AL, the Sox suddenly find themselves fighting for respectability.
Having dropped two of three against the Rangers this weekend, the Sox are now 2-7 against Texas this season, giving them a decided disadvantage in any tie-breaker. The two teams do not play each other again this season.
After rallying to score six runs in the ninth against Texas on Friday night for an 8-4 victory, the Sox combined for just five runs over the next two games. Most futilely, the Sox were 0-10 with runners in scoring position in those two contests. It was hardly a surprise; in fact it was part of a trend.
Before the All-Star break the Red Sox were hitting .281 with runners in scoring position (third-best in the AL). But since the break, they're hitting .233 (13th in the AL).
On any given day, at least half of the Red Sox lineup looks completely impotent. David Ortiz is batting .221, Jason Varitek .223, Nick Green .233, Brian Anderson .236, JD Drew .254, and Alex Gonzalez, the newest Red Sox, was bating just .210 before joining the team.
There are automatic outs all over the Boston lineup and it's killing them. After producing the third-most runs in baseball during the first half, the Sox lineup is tied for 16th since the break.
The Sox offense benefits from playing at Fenway, scoring 5.66 runs per game at home, third best in the majors. But away from home their production falls by more than a full run, scoring 4.57 runs per game, 13th best.
The starting rotation, once the envy of the AL, is full of question marks once they get past Josh Beckett and Jon Lester.
John Smoltz was a bust, and the same can be said of Brad Penny. The burly right-hander has won just once in his past 10 starts and is now 7-7 with a 5.22 ERA. He has not made it through the seventh inning in any of his 23 starts this season, the most in the Majors. It is a level of ineptitude not experienced by a Red Sox pitcher since 1954.
Clay Buchholz is 1-3 with a 4.45 ERA. He has allowed 59 base runners in just 32.1 innings. Buchholz is unproven in the regular season, much less the playoffs.
Junichi Tazawa has made just two starts and has a 5.40 ERA. Could anybody realistically expect him to perform in October if the Sox somehow turn things around and extend their season? Not likely.
Tim Wakefield is 43 and on the DL for the third consecutive season during the stretch drive. Due to sciatica, Wakefield is now walking with a limp and it is unclear if he can even field his position. Don't count on him being the solution, much less the savior for the Sox rotation.
Daisuke Matsuzaka is expected back sometime next month. But he hasn't pitched since June 19 and is 1-5 with an 8.23 ERA this season. Matsuzaka averaged just 4.4 innings per start before going on the DL The Japanese righty never made a quality start this season, and lasted six innings just once in his eight starts. He can't be expected to pitch meaningful innings down the stretch and is not a playoff-caliber pitcher at this time.
Paul Byrd is Paul Byrd and hasn't pitched in the Majors since last October. Enough said.
What is evident is that the Red Sox rotation is not playoff-caliber, and is largely staffed with a combination of old, injured, ineffective, and unproven pitchers.
As a whole, the Red Sox have fared well in the familiar confines of Fenway Park, going 38-18 there this season. But on the road, it's another story entirely. The Sox are a below average team away from home, compiling an uninspiring 28-33 record.
That's not good enough to get them into the playoffs, much less through the playoffs.
On July 1, the Sox were 23-20 on the road, which was the fifth best road mark in baseball. Since the All-Star break, the Sox are 5-13 on the road, compared to 7-4 at home.
If only they could play all their games at Fenway.
The ugly truth for the Red Sox and their fans is that this is not a great team, and probably not even a playoff team. That's a bitter pill to swallow since the Red Sox and their fans expect to see October baseball in Boston each and every year.
That isn't likely this time around.
Once possessing the best record in the AL, the Red Sox have hit the skids and are now one game behind the Rangers in the Wild Card hunt.
At the All Star break, the Sox were 20 games over .500 and held a three-game lead over the Yankees. As recently as July 19, they were still in first place.
However, the Sox have fallen flat and appear out of gas. Boston is 6-9 this month, and 12-17 since the break. Once viewed as the premier team in the AL, the Sox suddenly find themselves fighting for respectability.
Having dropped two of three against the Rangers this weekend, the Sox are now 2-7 against Texas this season, giving them a decided disadvantage in any tie-breaker. The two teams do not play each other again this season.
After rallying to score six runs in the ninth against Texas on Friday night for an 8-4 victory, the Sox combined for just five runs over the next two games. Most futilely, the Sox were 0-10 with runners in scoring position in those two contests. It was hardly a surprise; in fact it was part of a trend.
Before the All-Star break the Red Sox were hitting .281 with runners in scoring position (third-best in the AL). But since the break, they're hitting .233 (13th in the AL).
On any given day, at least half of the Red Sox lineup looks completely impotent. David Ortiz is batting .221, Jason Varitek .223, Nick Green .233, Brian Anderson .236, JD Drew .254, and Alex Gonzalez, the newest Red Sox, was bating just .210 before joining the team.
There are automatic outs all over the Boston lineup and it's killing them. After producing the third-most runs in baseball during the first half, the Sox lineup is tied for 16th since the break.
The Sox offense benefits from playing at Fenway, scoring 5.66 runs per game at home, third best in the majors. But away from home their production falls by more than a full run, scoring 4.57 runs per game, 13th best.
The starting rotation, once the envy of the AL, is full of question marks once they get past Josh Beckett and Jon Lester.
John Smoltz was a bust, and the same can be said of Brad Penny. The burly right-hander has won just once in his past 10 starts and is now 7-7 with a 5.22 ERA. He has not made it through the seventh inning in any of his 23 starts this season, the most in the Majors. It is a level of ineptitude not experienced by a Red Sox pitcher since 1954.
Clay Buchholz is 1-3 with a 4.45 ERA. He has allowed 59 base runners in just 32.1 innings. Buchholz is unproven in the regular season, much less the playoffs.
Junichi Tazawa has made just two starts and has a 5.40 ERA. Could anybody realistically expect him to perform in October if the Sox somehow turn things around and extend their season? Not likely.
Tim Wakefield is 43 and on the DL for the third consecutive season during the stretch drive. Due to sciatica, Wakefield is now walking with a limp and it is unclear if he can even field his position. Don't count on him being the solution, much less the savior for the Sox rotation.
Daisuke Matsuzaka is expected back sometime next month. But he hasn't pitched since June 19 and is 1-5 with an 8.23 ERA this season. Matsuzaka averaged just 4.4 innings per start before going on the DL The Japanese righty never made a quality start this season, and lasted six innings just once in his eight starts. He can't be expected to pitch meaningful innings down the stretch and is not a playoff-caliber pitcher at this time.
Paul Byrd is Paul Byrd and hasn't pitched in the Majors since last October. Enough said.
What is evident is that the Red Sox rotation is not playoff-caliber, and is largely staffed with a combination of old, injured, ineffective, and unproven pitchers.
As a whole, the Red Sox have fared well in the familiar confines of Fenway Park, going 38-18 there this season. But on the road, it's another story entirely. The Sox are a below average team away from home, compiling an uninspiring 28-33 record.
That's not good enough to get them into the playoffs, much less through the playoffs.
On July 1, the Sox were 23-20 on the road, which was the fifth best road mark in baseball. Since the All-Star break, the Sox are 5-13 on the road, compared to 7-4 at home.
If only they could play all their games at Fenway.
The ugly truth for the Red Sox and their fans is that this is not a great team, and probably not even a playoff team. That's a bitter pill to swallow since the Red Sox and their fans expect to see October baseball in Boston each and every year.
That isn't likely this time around.
Saturday, August 15, 2009
Jacoby Ellsbury: Hail to the Thief
Ellsbury stole his 53rd base on Saturday night, overtaking Tris Speaker for second best by a Red Sox. Ellsbury is now just one steal away from Harper’s team record set back in 1973.
The Red Sox haven't had many speedsters in the intervening 36 years, and Ellsbury has opened a new dimension in the team's game.
Ellsbury is the first Red Sox player with multiple 50-steal seasons, and just the third player in team history to reach the half-century mark.
Here's a look at the Red Sox single-season leaders:
Rank - Player - Year - SB
1. Tommy Harper, 1973 - 54
2. Jacoby Ellsbury, 2009 - 53
3. Tris Speaker, 1912 - 52
4. Jacoby Ellsbury, 2008 - 50
5. Tris Speaker, 1913 - 46
6. Tris Speaker, 1914 - 42
6. Otis Nixon, 1994 - 42 (strike season)
7. Harry Hooper, 1910 - 40
7. Billy Werber, 1934 - 40
As you can see, the Sox earned their reputation as a team that didn't steal many bases, going 20, 39, and 21 years without a 40-steal season from any player. Before Ellsbury accomplished the feat last season, it had been 14 years since the last player, Otis Nixon, had stolen as many as 40 bases.
It's worth noting that Nixon stole 42 bases in just 103 games that season, due to the 1994 player's strike. Who knows how many he would have snatched in a full campaign?
Ellsbury started the season strongly, seemingly on a mission to break Harper's 36-year-old mark. Being that it's only only mid-August, there's no telling what Ellsbury's new record will be come season's end, but 60 steals doesn't seem unlikely.
That was once unimaginable for a Red Sox player.
In less than three full seasons, Ellsbury has already moved into seventh place on the team's all-time stolen base list. That should tell you plenty about the Red Sox and their tendency to steal bases, or lack thereof.
Harry Hooper holds the club record with an even 300 steals, achieved in 1647 games over 12 seasons. With 111 thefts in just 286 games, Ellsbury should be halfway there by next season.
If he stays healthy, Ellsbury could surpass Hooper in about four years, which would be a rather remarkable accomplishment—especially for a Red Sox player.
Thursday, August 06, 2009
The Red Sox are in Trouble
Watching Brad Penny pitch last night was just the latest sign that the Red Sox are in trouble.
Once again, Penny couldn't pitch into the 7th inning. The big righty went six innings, giving up five runs on six hits, allowed two walks, and struck out five.
Penny, now 7-6, has not gone seven innings in any of his 21 starts this season, which is the most in the Majors. It's also the longest single-season streak by a Red Sox pitcher since 1954.
Due this latest weak outing, Penny's ERA rose again, to a lofty 5.20.
And there's little reason for optimism tonight. John Smoltz, he of the 2-4 record and 7.12 ERA, takes the mound in the Bronx against the Yankees. Feeling any better, Red Sox fans?
Smoltz spent 20 years building an impressive resume in Atlanta before the Braves bid farewell to him after reconstructive shoulder surgery. Apparently they were onto something. There was little reason to believe that a 42-year-old pitcher could remain effective after having his labrum surgically repaired. Yet the Red Sox held out hope and took a shot on the former star.
Theo Epstein's signing of the aging veteran was widely described as "low risk, high reward." Perhaps Smoltz's guaranteed $5M salary is low risk by Red Sox standards, but it's a reward he hasn't yet earned. What's worse, there is plenty of risk to the team, and the bullpen in particular, every time he takes the mound.
And then there's Clay Buchholz, he of the supposedly limitless upside and potential. Other than a brilliant no-hitter in just his second big league start two years ago, we haven't seen anything to be inspired by since then. The alleged wunderkind has allowed 40 base runners in just 19.1 innings this season, resulting in a 2.02 WHIP. Opponents are batting a vibrant .337 against Buchholz, and his ERA stands at a hefty 6.05.
Buchholz will be 25 in 11 days. Having made starts in each of the last three seasons, he's past the point of being a prospect now. It's time for him to put up or risk becoming the latest "can't miss kid" who missed, unable to live up to the hype.
In their last starts, Penny, Smoltz, and Buchholz have combined for 16 innings, 23 hits, and 17 earned runs. Believe it or not, Penny and Smoltz had been even worse in their previous starts.
The Sox are so desperate that they signed 38-year-old Paul Byrd to a minor league contract this week. Byrd, with a 108-93 career record and 4.38 ERA, hasn't pitched since last October. But right now, he's better than any other available options. That's how bad things are at the moment for the Sox.
If you think Tim Wakefield is the answer, think again. Though Wakefield is having a very good season (11-3, 4.31 ERA), he is 43 and has been derailed by shoulder issues in each of the last two seasons. However, that shoulder is secondary to his current ailment; sciatica.
The condition is so bad that Wakefield may need a second cortisone shot to treat it, and the sciatic nerve is now radiating all the way down to his left calf.
Said Wakefield, “I’m just depressed that this isn’t progressing the way I want it to progress. I’ve got zero strength in my left calf due to the nerve. I’m just waiting for it to get better.”
Earlier this week, the Sox veteran said the pain had been so bad that he could “barely walk.”
While the Sox are trying to remain optimistic, they don’t realistically expect Wakefield to return for a couple of weeks. Wakefield said trainers told him a person typically requires 6-8 weeks to recover from sciatica, yet he’s still hoping for a quicker return.
The Red Sox expect that Daisuke Matsuzaka will be ready to pitch again in September. But since he won't be stretched out, the best they can hope for is 4-5 innings per start. That would be pretty typical; this season, Matsuzaka has averaged just 4.4 innings per start, and last year just 5.8 innings per start. If 4-5 innings is all the Red Sox can reasonably expect from him, it will put excessive strain on an already overworked bullpen.
They will miss Justin Masterson.
Matsuzaka is just 1-5 this season, with a bloated 8.23 ERA. Opponents are batting .378 against him, his WHIP is 2.20, and he has zero quality starts in eight tries. For the Japanese righty, this season has been an outright bust.
Despite his success last year (18-3, 2.90 ERA) it's important to note that his 18 wins were achieved in the fewest amount of innings of any pitcher to have ever won at least 18 games.
And there was a lot of good luck and good defense at play as well; Matsuzaka loaded the bases an incredible 15 times last season without allowing a run. That kind of good fortune always runs put eventually.
Amazingly, the Red Sox may find themselves counting on minor league pitchers Michael Bowden (3-5, 3.40 ERA at Pawtucket) and/or Junichi Tazawa (0-2, 2.38 ERA at Pawtucket) before the year is through.
That's a frightening prospect when you're entering the stretch drive of a Pennant race with your season potentially on the line. Do you really want to see either of those inexperienced pitchers in meaningful games in September, with the season potentially hanging in the balance? How fair would that be to a pair of 23-year-olds?
But the Sox may have no other reasonable choice. Truthfully, this may be as good as it gets.
On Monday, teams began putting players on trade waivers, a process that will continue throughout August. Clubs with the worst records get first dibs, in ascending order of record.
While many teams will attempt to dump salary, some may be planning ahead and adding for next year, while others will simply try to block their closest competitors. That's how second place could potentially be an advantage to the Red Sox. However, the Rays could throw a wrench in the works just to thwart the Sox.
But let's face it; great pitchers aren't typically found in August. The Paul Byrd's of the world are what's usually available. That means the Red Sox aren't likely to pull a difference maker off the waiver wire, so don't hold your breath.
Theo Epstein publicly stated that he didn’t feel there would be any quality pitching available after the July 31 deadline. Take him at his word.
The Sox have 56 games remaining, or just over a third of the season. There is still time to get it right, but considering that three-fifths of the rotation is ineffective, it's hard to be optimistic.
After Josh Becket and Jon Lester, the Sox just roll the dice each time another starter takes the mound, and that probably won't get them into the post-season.
Copyright © 2009 Sean M. Kennedy. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the author’s consent.
Once again, Penny couldn't pitch into the 7th inning. The big righty went six innings, giving up five runs on six hits, allowed two walks, and struck out five.
Penny, now 7-6, has not gone seven innings in any of his 21 starts this season, which is the most in the Majors. It's also the longest single-season streak by a Red Sox pitcher since 1954.
Due this latest weak outing, Penny's ERA rose again, to a lofty 5.20.
And there's little reason for optimism tonight. John Smoltz, he of the 2-4 record and 7.12 ERA, takes the mound in the Bronx against the Yankees. Feeling any better, Red Sox fans?
Smoltz spent 20 years building an impressive resume in Atlanta before the Braves bid farewell to him after reconstructive shoulder surgery. Apparently they were onto something. There was little reason to believe that a 42-year-old pitcher could remain effective after having his labrum surgically repaired. Yet the Red Sox held out hope and took a shot on the former star.
Theo Epstein's signing of the aging veteran was widely described as "low risk, high reward." Perhaps Smoltz's guaranteed $5M salary is low risk by Red Sox standards, but it's a reward he hasn't yet earned. What's worse, there is plenty of risk to the team, and the bullpen in particular, every time he takes the mound.
And then there's Clay Buchholz, he of the supposedly limitless upside and potential. Other than a brilliant no-hitter in just his second big league start two years ago, we haven't seen anything to be inspired by since then. The alleged wunderkind has allowed 40 base runners in just 19.1 innings this season, resulting in a 2.02 WHIP. Opponents are batting a vibrant .337 against Buchholz, and his ERA stands at a hefty 6.05.
Buchholz will be 25 in 11 days. Having made starts in each of the last three seasons, he's past the point of being a prospect now. It's time for him to put up or risk becoming the latest "can't miss kid" who missed, unable to live up to the hype.
In their last starts, Penny, Smoltz, and Buchholz have combined for 16 innings, 23 hits, and 17 earned runs. Believe it or not, Penny and Smoltz had been even worse in their previous starts.
The Sox are so desperate that they signed 38-year-old Paul Byrd to a minor league contract this week. Byrd, with a 108-93 career record and 4.38 ERA, hasn't pitched since last October. But right now, he's better than any other available options. That's how bad things are at the moment for the Sox.
If you think Tim Wakefield is the answer, think again. Though Wakefield is having a very good season (11-3, 4.31 ERA), he is 43 and has been derailed by shoulder issues in each of the last two seasons. However, that shoulder is secondary to his current ailment; sciatica.
The condition is so bad that Wakefield may need a second cortisone shot to treat it, and the sciatic nerve is now radiating all the way down to his left calf.
Said Wakefield, “I’m just depressed that this isn’t progressing the way I want it to progress. I’ve got zero strength in my left calf due to the nerve. I’m just waiting for it to get better.”
Earlier this week, the Sox veteran said the pain had been so bad that he could “barely walk.”
While the Sox are trying to remain optimistic, they don’t realistically expect Wakefield to return for a couple of weeks. Wakefield said trainers told him a person typically requires 6-8 weeks to recover from sciatica, yet he’s still hoping for a quicker return.
The Red Sox expect that Daisuke Matsuzaka will be ready to pitch again in September. But since he won't be stretched out, the best they can hope for is 4-5 innings per start. That would be pretty typical; this season, Matsuzaka has averaged just 4.4 innings per start, and last year just 5.8 innings per start. If 4-5 innings is all the Red Sox can reasonably expect from him, it will put excessive strain on an already overworked bullpen.
They will miss Justin Masterson.
Matsuzaka is just 1-5 this season, with a bloated 8.23 ERA. Opponents are batting .378 against him, his WHIP is 2.20, and he has zero quality starts in eight tries. For the Japanese righty, this season has been an outright bust.
Despite his success last year (18-3, 2.90 ERA) it's important to note that his 18 wins were achieved in the fewest amount of innings of any pitcher to have ever won at least 18 games.
And there was a lot of good luck and good defense at play as well; Matsuzaka loaded the bases an incredible 15 times last season without allowing a run. That kind of good fortune always runs put eventually.
Amazingly, the Red Sox may find themselves counting on minor league pitchers Michael Bowden (3-5, 3.40 ERA at Pawtucket) and/or Junichi Tazawa (0-2, 2.38 ERA at Pawtucket) before the year is through.
That's a frightening prospect when you're entering the stretch drive of a Pennant race with your season potentially on the line. Do you really want to see either of those inexperienced pitchers in meaningful games in September, with the season potentially hanging in the balance? How fair would that be to a pair of 23-year-olds?
But the Sox may have no other reasonable choice. Truthfully, this may be as good as it gets.
On Monday, teams began putting players on trade waivers, a process that will continue throughout August. Clubs with the worst records get first dibs, in ascending order of record.
While many teams will attempt to dump salary, some may be planning ahead and adding for next year, while others will simply try to block their closest competitors. That's how second place could potentially be an advantage to the Red Sox. However, the Rays could throw a wrench in the works just to thwart the Sox.
But let's face it; great pitchers aren't typically found in August. The Paul Byrd's of the world are what's usually available. That means the Red Sox aren't likely to pull a difference maker off the waiver wire, so don't hold your breath.
Theo Epstein publicly stated that he didn’t feel there would be any quality pitching available after the July 31 deadline. Take him at his word.
The Sox have 56 games remaining, or just over a third of the season. There is still time to get it right, but considering that three-fifths of the rotation is ineffective, it's hard to be optimistic.
After Josh Becket and Jon Lester, the Sox just roll the dice each time another starter takes the mound, and that probably won't get them into the post-season.
Copyright © 2009 Sean M. Kennedy. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the author’s consent.
Tuesday, August 04, 2009
If Only Victor Martinez Could Pitch
In last year's ALCS, the Red Sox were outgunned offensively by the Rays. The loss of Mike Lowell, due to a hip injury, hurt the Sox considerably.
After Lowell's subsequent surgery, there were concerns that he wouldn't be 100% ready and completely effective this season, which is why the Sox made a bid for Mark Teixeira during the winter. When that fell through, the Sox brass held its collective breath and hoped for the best.
To the surprise of many, the season started well for both Lowell and the Sox. But when he faltered due to his still healing labrum, the rest of the offense faltered with him.
The Sox initially added Adam LaRoche to the lineup. But he isn't the type of player who could single-handedly buoy the Sox lagging offense. The left-handed first baseman was simply an insurance plan in case a larger deal couldn't be consummated.
In Victor Martinez, the Sox found the versatile weapon they were looking for; a switch-hitting first baseman/catcher who can also DH effectively.
And, in a move that seemed a bit peculiar at first glance, the Sox also dealt for Casey Kotchman. Another left-handed first baseman, Kotchman has less power than LaRoche (6 HR this season). However, the addition of Martinez made that less important. The Sox simply felt Kotchman could handle being a part time player better than LaRoche. The at-bats and playing time will be diminished with the multi-faceted Martinez on the roster, a player who can catch and play first, as well as DH. Most of all, LaRoche is a free agent after this season, but the Sox can control Kotchman for the next 2-3 years.
The acquisition of Martinez was a coup for the Red Sox. The Venezuelan native is a high character, solid clubhouse leader who will fit in well this year and next. However, he is not the long term solution at catcher.
Scouts note that Martinez is not great defensively, doesn't have a great arm, and regularly squatting behind the plate makes his legs fatigue, which affects his hitting. In addition, he's 30-years-old and has never caught a knuckleball.
Martinez is making $5.7 million this season, and the Sox can bring him back for $7 million next year. After that, he will be eligible for free agency.
To obtain Martinez, the Sox surrendered Justin Masterson, plus minor league pitchers Nick Hagadone and Bryan Price. Masterson will likely be a very solid starter (which the Indians plan to use him as next year), but he needs to learn to get lefties out. And scouts think Hagadone will be a very good big league pitcher. It would have been fun watching him develop in the Sox organization.
However, the Sox hung onto Clay Buchholz, Daniel Bard, Michael Bowden and Junichi Tazawa, all of whom are either in the Majors or could be very soon. The rotation will need new blood next year; John Smoltz and Brad Penny will be gone. And although Daisuke Matsuzaka and Tim Wakefield will both likely be back, that still leaves at least one open spot.
Wakefield is now 43 and can't pitch forever. He's been on the DL for three consecutive years, and requires a specialty catcher that can handle the knuckleball. Those things make him a liability. It's yet to be determined if Martinez can effectively be his battery-mate.
All in all, getting Martinez was a good move, especially considering that the Sox didn't have to give up their very best prospects.
That said, the Sox may eventually regret not trading Buchholz when his value was at his zenith. He will be 25 this month and is not developing as anticipated.
The Texas native has not made it out of the sixth inning in any of his four starts this year, and his ERA is 6.05. That's especially worrisome considering that last season he was 2-9 with a 6.75 ERA.
There is still time for him to shine, but that time is running out. If he continues on this path, the word "bust" will be tossed around liberally and his value will have plummeted precipitously.
It would be unfortunate if Buchholz becomes the latest cautionary tale in over-hyping and over-valuing a prospect, and then refusing to trade him for a quality Major Leaguer when his value is peaking.
Brad Penny has not gone seven innings in any of his 20 starts this season, which is the most in the Majors. It's also the longest single-season streak by a Red Sox pitcher since 1954. He is currently 7-5 with a lofty 5.07 ERA.
John Smoltz is 42, recovering from shoulder surgery, has a 2-4 record, and a 7.12 ERA.
In their last starts, Buchholz, Penny, and Smoltz have combined for 15 innings, 24 hits, and 19 earned runs. That has hurt the bullpen, and it cannot continue.
All of which makes it clear that the Red Sox need a pitcher and may have missed a vital opportunity at the deadline. They might soon regret that.
It wasn't for lack of tying; we now know that Theo Epstein made creative bids for Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Felix Hernandez, before landing Martinez.
If only Victor Martinez could pitch.
However, the Sox needed ofense too, and they addresed that with Martinez, but not before exhausting all attempts to secure Adrian Gonzalez from the Padres. We may not have seen the last of that foray.
The Red Sox and Padres could certainly rekindle those trade talks in the offseason. Casey Kotchman, under control for the next two seasons, could be a component in such a deal. That flexibility made Kotchman more attractive than LaRoche, who is a free agent at season's end.
Under such a scenario, Martinez would assume full-time catching duties, but that creates problems, as earlier noted.
Ultimately, the Sox needed a starter and couldn't make it happen. They can only hope that more of their vaunted prospects continue to pan out. But does anybody really think that either Bowden or Tazawa is ready to step up this year and help the Sox in a Pennant drive, much less in October?
Does anyone really envision Dice-K being the rotation's savior, swooping into Fenway wearing a cape emblazoned with the Japanese rising sun? Unlikely.
The truth is, as presently constructed, the Red Sox do not have a playoff-caliber pitching staff. And the August waiver period is unlikely to change that. Paul Byrd was not the answer last year, and pitchers of that caliber are usually all that's available at this time of year.
Aside from that, all lesser teams can block the Sox in any attempt to land another starter anyway.
That spells trouble for the Olde Towne Team. They needed offense indeed, and Martinez will surely help in that regard.
But they also need pitching, and there seems to be no answer in sight.
If only Victor Martinez could pitch.
Copyright © 2009 Sean M. Kennedy. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the author’s consent.
After Lowell's subsequent surgery, there were concerns that he wouldn't be 100% ready and completely effective this season, which is why the Sox made a bid for Mark Teixeira during the winter. When that fell through, the Sox brass held its collective breath and hoped for the best.
To the surprise of many, the season started well for both Lowell and the Sox. But when he faltered due to his still healing labrum, the rest of the offense faltered with him.
The Sox initially added Adam LaRoche to the lineup. But he isn't the type of player who could single-handedly buoy the Sox lagging offense. The left-handed first baseman was simply an insurance plan in case a larger deal couldn't be consummated.
In Victor Martinez, the Sox found the versatile weapon they were looking for; a switch-hitting first baseman/catcher who can also DH effectively.
And, in a move that seemed a bit peculiar at first glance, the Sox also dealt for Casey Kotchman. Another left-handed first baseman, Kotchman has less power than LaRoche (6 HR this season). However, the addition of Martinez made that less important. The Sox simply felt Kotchman could handle being a part time player better than LaRoche. The at-bats and playing time will be diminished with the multi-faceted Martinez on the roster, a player who can catch and play first, as well as DH. Most of all, LaRoche is a free agent after this season, but the Sox can control Kotchman for the next 2-3 years.
The acquisition of Martinez was a coup for the Red Sox. The Venezuelan native is a high character, solid clubhouse leader who will fit in well this year and next. However, he is not the long term solution at catcher.
Scouts note that Martinez is not great defensively, doesn't have a great arm, and regularly squatting behind the plate makes his legs fatigue, which affects his hitting. In addition, he's 30-years-old and has never caught a knuckleball.
Martinez is making $5.7 million this season, and the Sox can bring him back for $7 million next year. After that, he will be eligible for free agency.
To obtain Martinez, the Sox surrendered Justin Masterson, plus minor league pitchers Nick Hagadone and Bryan Price. Masterson will likely be a very solid starter (which the Indians plan to use him as next year), but he needs to learn to get lefties out. And scouts think Hagadone will be a very good big league pitcher. It would have been fun watching him develop in the Sox organization.
However, the Sox hung onto Clay Buchholz, Daniel Bard, Michael Bowden and Junichi Tazawa, all of whom are either in the Majors or could be very soon. The rotation will need new blood next year; John Smoltz and Brad Penny will be gone. And although Daisuke Matsuzaka and Tim Wakefield will both likely be back, that still leaves at least one open spot.
Wakefield is now 43 and can't pitch forever. He's been on the DL for three consecutive years, and requires a specialty catcher that can handle the knuckleball. Those things make him a liability. It's yet to be determined if Martinez can effectively be his battery-mate.
All in all, getting Martinez was a good move, especially considering that the Sox didn't have to give up their very best prospects.
That said, the Sox may eventually regret not trading Buchholz when his value was at his zenith. He will be 25 this month and is not developing as anticipated.
The Texas native has not made it out of the sixth inning in any of his four starts this year, and his ERA is 6.05. That's especially worrisome considering that last season he was 2-9 with a 6.75 ERA.
There is still time for him to shine, but that time is running out. If he continues on this path, the word "bust" will be tossed around liberally and his value will have plummeted precipitously.
It would be unfortunate if Buchholz becomes the latest cautionary tale in over-hyping and over-valuing a prospect, and then refusing to trade him for a quality Major Leaguer when his value is peaking.
Brad Penny has not gone seven innings in any of his 20 starts this season, which is the most in the Majors. It's also the longest single-season streak by a Red Sox pitcher since 1954. He is currently 7-5 with a lofty 5.07 ERA.
John Smoltz is 42, recovering from shoulder surgery, has a 2-4 record, and a 7.12 ERA.
In their last starts, Buchholz, Penny, and Smoltz have combined for 15 innings, 24 hits, and 19 earned runs. That has hurt the bullpen, and it cannot continue.
All of which makes it clear that the Red Sox need a pitcher and may have missed a vital opportunity at the deadline. They might soon regret that.
It wasn't for lack of tying; we now know that Theo Epstein made creative bids for Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Felix Hernandez, before landing Martinez.
If only Victor Martinez could pitch.
However, the Sox needed ofense too, and they addresed that with Martinez, but not before exhausting all attempts to secure Adrian Gonzalez from the Padres. We may not have seen the last of that foray.
The Red Sox and Padres could certainly rekindle those trade talks in the offseason. Casey Kotchman, under control for the next two seasons, could be a component in such a deal. That flexibility made Kotchman more attractive than LaRoche, who is a free agent at season's end.
Under such a scenario, Martinez would assume full-time catching duties, but that creates problems, as earlier noted.
Ultimately, the Sox needed a starter and couldn't make it happen. They can only hope that more of their vaunted prospects continue to pan out. But does anybody really think that either Bowden or Tazawa is ready to step up this year and help the Sox in a Pennant drive, much less in October?
Does anyone really envision Dice-K being the rotation's savior, swooping into Fenway wearing a cape emblazoned with the Japanese rising sun? Unlikely.
The truth is, as presently constructed, the Red Sox do not have a playoff-caliber pitching staff. And the August waiver period is unlikely to change that. Paul Byrd was not the answer last year, and pitchers of that caliber are usually all that's available at this time of year.
Aside from that, all lesser teams can block the Sox in any attempt to land another starter anyway.
That spells trouble for the Olde Towne Team. They needed offense indeed, and Martinez will surely help in that regard.
But they also need pitching, and there seems to be no answer in sight.
If only Victor Martinez could pitch.
Copyright © 2009 Sean M. Kennedy. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without the author’s consent.
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