Rafael Devers could soon be waving goodbye to Red Sox fans.
It’s been reported that Juan Soto turned down the Nationals’ 15-year, $440 million contract offer. To be clear, Soto turned down the biggest offer in the history of baseball, which is stunning.
Soto, who won't become a free agent until after 2024 season, has balls. He clearly believes he can get an even higher offer elsewhere. It's a big gamble; he'd better not get hurt in the next 2 1/2 seasons.
The issue obviously comes down to average annual value (AAV). Soto is a Scott Boras client; he not only wants the biggest contract in history, but also the highest AAV.
The $29.3 million per year in the Nationals' offer would rank only 15th among players, based on their 2022 salaries. That’s not good enough.
After repeatedly insisting that they wouldn’t trade Soto because they were determined to extend him, the Nats are now listening to trade offers.
This brings us to us to Rafael Devers, who has already rejected a contract extension offer made by the Red Sox in March because it was too low. Devers noted at the time that the Red Sox had never previously approached him about an extension. In retrospect, that was a mistake.
This is what Devers said after agreeing to his one-year, $11.2 million arbitration deal in March:
"It was tough, obviously, having to go back and forth about what my worth was because we have other guys they were saying, ‘This is what they are slotted at.’ But I was like, ‘That’s not me. I’m a different player and I know the type of player that I am.’ That’s really what it was."
"We all want to make a lot more money because of the performance and what we do for the team. That’s something that may be hard at first, but you know you’re worth and I know my worth. What it comes down to is I know the type of money I should be making, so that’s what I’m focused on."
"I’m not focused on what other guys are making or what they are doing. I’m more focused on what I’m doing on the field and what I’m worth. That’s why when it comes to those type of talks, where they are trying to compare different types of players, that doesn’t matter me because I know who I am and that’s what I focus on."
Simply put, Devers doesn't want to be compared to other players at his position; he sees himself as a unique talent. He views himself as one of the elite players in the game.
Devers will turn 26 this October, which means he'll reach free agency at age 27.
Clearly, he's not thinking of precedents when assessing his value. Forget Manny Machado's 10-year, $300 million deal, signed at age 26 or Nolan Arenado's 8-year, $260 million deal, signed at age 27.
Anthony Rendon’s absurd $35 million AAV, which he hasn't even come close to earning, is not even the starting point.
My sense is that Devers is looking for closer to $40 million per season, for a term of at least 10 years.
Devers is only two years older than Soto, who just turned down $440 million. Though they play different positions, their numbers are similar. Both are two-time All-Stars and World Series champions. Soto has a higher OPS (.980 vs .904) over the last four seasons, but Devers has 59 more extra-base hits in just 16 more games played.
The Red Sox would have received more favorable terms had they offered Devers a reasonable extension two years ago, buying out some of his arbitration years, but that ship has sailed.
It's getting harder and harder to imagine Devers being in a Red Sox uniform beyond next season, perhaps even beyond this season. I think the Red Sox will trade Devers this offseason; and if they believe their playoff aspirations are unrealistic this year, they could maximize his value by trading him by the Aug. 2 deadline. Don’t be surprised.
When asked this week about about reaching contract extensions with Devers and Xander Bogaerts, owner John Henry sounded ominous.
"It takes two to make a deal," he said. "I think it's clear both of them want to be here. We want them here. We made efforts in the past to try to sign players that we weren't able to sign.
"It's not 100 percent our fault when we don't end up signing a player. We've signed players where it's really worked out. We've signed others that…” Henry went on to say, without saying it directly, that other players haven’t worked out, which is true.
"The key thing I think with a long-term deal is to make it with the right players. For us at this point, both Raffy and Xander are two players we would love to have. In Xander's case, it could be till the end of his career. But players have rights and you have to respect that."
That's pretty disingenuous since the club gave Bogaerts a lowball offer of four years, $90 million, which was essentially asking him to honor the three years, $60 million on his current deal, and the Sox would throw in $30 million on a fourth and final year. Considering the $300-plus million contracts for Fernando Tatis Jr., Corey Seager, and Francisco Lindor, the Sox offer was absurd. It simply didn’t meet the current market.
We don’t know what exactly the Sox offered Devers, but it doesn’t require much imagination to figure that it was equally absurd.
Clearly, Devers wants to remain in Boston, telling MassLive on Friday, "If that (staying in Boston) can happen, that would be great. We know the type of city Boston is. If it were up to me, I’d stay here my whole career. It’s a great city to play for, great fans, great ballpark. Everything that involves the organization is great, so I hope I can finish my career here because that’s what I want.”
The Red Sox drew the line at $300 million for Mookie Betts, a more complete player than Devers. And they clearly feel burned by Chris Sale’s five-year, $145 million deal, which has a team option for 2025. The Sox extended Sale despite the lefty coming off an injury-plagued 2018 season, and his injuries have continued for the majority of the last four seasons.
Devers and Sale are different players, with different bodies, at different positions, but the Red Sox seem to have a sense of “Once bitten, twice shy.” They got burned by the Pablo Sandoval and David Price contracts as well.
Since Chaim Bloom took control of baseball operations, the Red Sox' biggest outlay has been a six-year, $140 million deal for second baseman Trevor Story. Devers is clearly looking for a contract about twice as long and more than twice as expensive. The Red Sox don’t seem willing to go there. So, it looks like we’re nearing the end of Devers' stay in Boston.
The Yankees must be salivating. Josh Donaldson’s contract comes off the books after next season, right when Devers reaches free agency.
Get ready, Red Sox fans.
