The Red Sox are in agreement with Trevor Story on a six-year, $140 million deal that has a unique opt-out clause. Story can opt out of the deal after four years, but Boston can negate the opt-out by picking up a $20 million seventh-year option, making it a seven-year, $160 million deal. Story will not receive a no-trade clause in the deal.
Whether Story opts out after four seasons or stays for all seven, the average annual value (AAV) of this pact is a very reasonable $22.86 million, which is a great deal for Boston. Avoiding a no-trade clause also benefits Boston.
Since the Rockies made a qualifying offer that Story rejected, the Red Sox will forfeit their second-highest pick and and will have their international signing bonus pool reduced by $500K.
Story will play second base, with Xander Bogaerts continuing to man shortstop, giving the Red Sox one of the best middle infields in baseball. It's worth noting that Alex Cora played 530 career games at second, which will provide Story plenty of useful coaching and insight as he seeks to make this transition during a shortened spring training.
Story’s addition gives the Red Sox lineup, which lost Hunter Renfroe's 31 homers and 96 RBI, some much needed punch. He represents a massive upgrade over Christian Arroyo at second, and he offers Boston an option when Bogaerts undoubtedly opts out of his contract at season's end.
Story has belted at least 24 homers in every season since his 2016 debut (high of 37 in 2018), with the exception of the shortened 2020 season, when he hit 11. Yet, that still put him on pace to hit about 28 homers over the course of a normal season. Story has posted an OPS of at least .900 in three of his six seasons, and slugged at least .500 in four of them.
The 2021 season, when he slashed .251/.329/.471, was considered a down year by Story's lofty standards. Yet, he still produced a 4.2 WAR, which is considered All Star caliber. The glove still matters and Story is a gifted all-around player.
Like most of the great hitters who’ve thrived at Coors Field, Story will face questions about how he’ll fare away from Denver.
Story hit .303 at home, but just .241 outside of Colorado. He also posted a .972 OPS in the Mile High City, but just a .752 OPS on the road.
However, plenty of hitters have left the advantageous environment of Coors Field and continued to succeed — Matt Holliday, DJ LeMahieu, Nolan Arenado, Corey Dickerson, Seth Smith, Dexter Fowler, and Chris Iannetta among them.
Additionally, Story is also a stolen base threat, having swiped at least 20 bases in three of the last four seasons. The only year he missed 20 swipes was 2020, when he still led the NL with 15 stolen bases. That’s amazing an amazing total for just 60 games.
For comparison, the Red Sox, as a team, had 31 stolen bases in 2020 and just 40 in 2021. Story will open up a whole new dimension for them.
The main concern might be Story's elbow, which was problematic last year due to inflammation. Some MLB insiders think that, going forward, he may be best suited for the less demanding second base. Yet, the Sox had to be okay with his medicals. Now they have a chance to see how the second base experiment works out this season.
It will be really interesting to see what the Sox do with Bogaerts now. Will they top Story’s contract to keep him in Boston or let him walk? Like Story, Bogaerts is also 29 and will surely be looking for a deal that would pay him at least $30 million annually and run for at least six years. It should be noted that Bogaerts is represented by Scott Boras.
We'd all like to see Bogaerts finish his career in Boston, but with Jeter Downs and Marcello Mayer in the pipeline, the Sox may not want to commit longterm to a player who is already showing a defensive decline.
Defensive metrics weren’t kind to Bogaerts last season, as he ranked 16th among shortstops in the Majors by defensive runs saved at minus-5, per FanGraphs. However, he made only nine errors in 523 chances, logging 1,169 innings. Consequently, Bogaerts had a fielding percentage of .983, his second best in nine years on the job.
On the other hand, fielding percentage is an antiquated way of evaluating defense and the advanced metrics have always been harsh in rating Bogaerts. Players generally aren’t charged with an error if they don’t get to the ball to begin with. The more modern metrics penalize Bogaerts for being a step slow to the ball or being out of position.
Since entering the league in 2013, Bogaerts has produced -50 defensive runs saved, by far the worst among qualified shortstops in that time frame.
Bogaerts, Boston's primary shortstop for nearly a decade, was asked this week how he'd feel about Story joining the Red Sox. He sounded quite positive.
“He’s a big bat," Bogaerts aid. "We know what he does defensively already. I think that bat would play really well at Fenway just with that short porch over there. He has a nice swing that’s kind of built for that. It would be nice if we could get an addition like that after some of the big names that we lost to free agency or traded away.”
"That’s a big boy," Bogaerts said of the 6-2, 213lb Story. "That’s a big bat right there. That’s an impact player.”
Those don’t sound like the words of a player who feels threatened or jealous. Bogaerts will probably be even more supportive now that he's assured of remaining at shortstop this season.
The addition of Story will likely light a fire under Bogaerts, who will be auditioning for a long-term pact and knows that the baseball world is watching. How will he fare defensively this season? Second baseman are less valuable than shortstops, and Bogaerts knows this.
Boston has a lot of payroll flexibility coming its way starting next season, when JD Martinez, Nathan Eovaldi, Jackie Bradley Jr., Christian Vazquez, Enrique Hernandez, Michael Wacha, Rich Hill, Matt Strahm and Kevin Plawecki all come off the books. A potential Bogaerts opt-out could result in their payroll plummeting to just $60 million, leaving a huge amount of money to fill out the team’s active roster next year.
Translation: There’s still plenty of money for Bogaerts. There's plenty of money for a number of great players in Boston next year and beyond.
