For almost the entirety of the 21st Century, the Red Sox have been a hugely popular franchise in New England and beyond. Many New Englanders have relocated around the country over the years, yet have maintained their allegiance to the Sox. Hence, “Red Sox Nation” is a legitimate title.
Though ownership may have, perhaps, manipulated it, the Red Sox set the record for the longest home sellout streak in major pro sports history, at 820 games. The streak extended from May 15, 2003, through April 10, 2013. During the streak, more than 30 million fans went through the turnstiles at Fenway and the average attendance was 36,605 fans per game.
Tickets were hard to get, unless you were willing to be gouged by scalpers. I can remember tickets still being sold well above face value in the fourth inning of a game. I said no way; the scalper wouldn’t budge, certain he would find a taker at his price.
Winning four World Series Championships this century, the most in baseball, made the Red Sox revered among their fans. The team’s whipsaw fortunes didn’t make the fan base fickle either. The Sox famously went from last place in 2012 under Bobby Valentine, to World Series winners in 2013 under John Farrell. But the club again sank into last place in both 2014 and 2015. Despite this, the Red Sox fought their way back into first place for the next three years, culminating with another World Series win in 2018.
At that point, the future looked bright. The Red Sox had a core of young, homegrown players, including Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi, Jackie Bradley Jr., Xander Bogaerts and Rafael Devers. They also had the resources to sign top free agents, such as J.D. Martinez, and to trade for an ace, such as Chris Sale. There was every reason to believe that the Red Sox good fortune would extend well into the future.
But then an odd thing happened: the same Red Sox team that had won 108 games in 2018 won just 84 in 2019, finishing in third place. The team seemed to grow complacent, and lost its fire. They seemed to believe they would win again just by showing up. However, it doesn’t work that way.
Boston had the fourth-highest payroll in baseball that year, north of $204 million. It would be fair to say that John Henry and Co. didn’t get what they paid for, and neither did the fans who bought tickets or the MLB package. The owners surely had to wonder: Why pay all that money for a third-place finish? A shakeup seemed in order. Yet, few expected what was to come.
In February, 2020, Boston pulled off a daring, some would say shocking, trade with the Dodgers that sent away all-world talent Mookie Betts and former Cy Young winner David Price, who, despite his struggles in Boston, was instrumental in winning the 2018 World Series.
Many Red Sox fans were stunned. Some were apoplectic. Some wrote off the team entirely, vowing never to be Sox' fans ever again. Betts was drafted and developed by the Red Sox and had become, along with Mike Trout, one of the two best players in the game.
To make matters worse, Chris Sale announced in March that he would need to have Tommy John surgery to repair his left elbow. Then No. 2 pitcher Eduardo Rodriguez was stricken by COVID-19 and would ultimately miss the entire 2020 season.
From that point, it was fairly easy to predict that the Red Sox would not be competitive in 2020. It turned out that they were horrible, finishing with the fourth-worst record in baseball. There was blame to be spread all around, but Boston's pitching was horrendous. Red Sox pitchers allowed 5.85 runs per game last season, the most for the franchise since 1932.
The upside is that the Red Sox will have the No. 4 overall pick in the 2021 MLB Draft. It will mark their highest draft pick in 54 years.
The Sox need pitching help. They also need to shore up second base, and they need a replacement for Jackie Bradley, who is a free agent and unlikely to return.
The Red Sox have sought to address their roster problems by signing free agents Martin Perez, Matt Andriese, Garrett Richards, Hunter Renfroe and Kiké Hernandez. Then they traded for Adam Ottavino.
After adding these six players, the Red Sox luxury tax payroll stands at around $206 million (according to FanGraphs), which is just $4 million below the luxury tax threshold. This means the Red Sox are likely done adding any substantial pieces this offseason (including re-signing Bradley), barring a trade. That $4 million may be needed for a mid-season addition, should the Red Sox over-perform and have a legitimate playoff shot, or should someone get injured and need replacing.
Some of the new additions, such as Richards, Renfroe and Hernandez, could prove to be pleasant surprises. Eduardo Rodriguez could return to his 2019 form, when he looked like a No. 1 pitcher. Alex Verdugo may continue to bloom and become an All Star. Rafael Devers may revert to the 2019 trajectory that made him look like a budding super star. Xander Bogaerts may continue being a consistent producer. J.D. Martinez may rediscover his swing. And Chris Sale could return by June.
Yet, even if all of this proves to be true, the Red Sox have improved only marginally from last season, while the Yankees and especially the Blue Jays improved considerably. Oh, and Tampa went to the World Series last year.
The Red Sox appear to be at least a year or two from contention, and players around the league know this. Boston is a rebuilding ball club, which is hurting the Red Sox ability to recruit high-quality free agents.
For many years, Boston was a destination for top free agents. Not at present. The Red Sox lost out on free agent pitcher Corey Kluber to the Yankees (because they are contenders) and then watched infielder/outfielder Jurickson Profar choose to re-sign with the Padres (because they are contenders) rather than go to Boston. MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweeted that the Red Sox “tried hard” to sign Profar before he ultimately returned to San Diego.
This is one of the secondary outcomes of becoming a bad ball club. Players are now choosing the ascendent Padres over the Red Sox, which was unimaginable for decades.
If the Red Sox don't soon put together a competitive team, they will not only continue to lose out on top free agents, they will also continue to lose fans.
The Red Sox need to act boldly to improve the product on the field. There's a lot riding on it.
I understand management's sense that they may not be a truly competitive playoff team for another 2-3 years. But, after their hugely disappointing 2019 season, trading Mookie last winter and then fielding a team loaded with castoffs last season, the Sox have a major PR problem on their hands and they need to mend fences with the fans.
Baseball already struggles to attract young people. The Red Sox had better act decisively or they risk losing a generation of fans. As it stands, Boston suffered the biggest ratings decline in MLB last season, down a whopping 58% from 2019. They need to give people a reason to watch this year.
As it stands, their underwhelming free agent signings have not done that. Most incredibly, the Red Sox are slipping into irrelevance with their once-rabid fan base. Rebuilds don’t fly in Red Sox Nation.
Consider this: the Dodgers have won eight consecutive NL West titles, a remarkable achievement. Consequently, they pick low in the draft each year. That hasn’t stopped them from having one of the best minor league systems in baseball. From 2015-2019, the Dodgers farm system was ranked in the Top-10 and in 2020 it slipped to No. 11, according to MLB.com.
Meanwhile, the big-market Dodgers continue to splurge on free agents and expensive trade acquisitions.
The Yankees have done much the same, finishing no worse than second in the AL East for the past seven seasons, with the exception of 2016, when they finished in fourth. There is no rebuilding in the Bronx; they do it on the fly, using their bountiful resources creatively, and remaining competitive year in and year out.
The Dodgers and the Yankees are the teams the Red Sox need to emulate, not the Rays. Boston has the ability and resources to do so. It just needs the will.
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