The Red Sox Should Lock Up E-Rod Now

 

Eduardo Rodriquez has one more year of arbitration-eligibility remaining before becoming a free agent after the 2021 season, at which time he will be just 28 years old.

If the lefty produces another season like 2019 (19-6, 3.81 ERA, 203 1/3 innings), he will be viewed as, perhaps, the top free-agent pitcher in the 2021 class.

Yet, Rodriguez has continually expressed his happiness in Boston, as well as his desire to remain with the Red Sox.

"I love it here and I want to stay here for a long time. If they want me to, I’ll stay here," E-Rod said after the 2019 season.

Yet, the Red Sox, at that point, still hadn't spoken to him about an extension. "I haven’t had that conversation yet, so I don’t know how that feels,” Rodriguez went on to say.

That still hasn't changed. So, what gives?

The Red Sox, like all other MLB teams, are dealing with the uncertainty brought about by the pandemic. Games without fans dramatically lowered revenues league-wide. MLB estimates that 40% of its overall revenue is tied directly to the presence of fans at live games.

Complicating baseball's revenue troubles even further, television ratings also suffered this season; both the Championship Series and the World Series saw a roughly 30% drop in viewership from the previous season.

The Red Sox' television ratings declined more this year than any other Major League Baseball team. According to a recent report from Forbes, Red Sox ratings on NESN were down 58% from 2019. That was significantly worse than the Los Angeles Angels, who saw the second-biggest drop at 40%.

Then there is the matter of Rodriguez's health and what his long-term prognosis looks like. The lefty contracted the coronavirus last summer and was devastated by the disease. He said it made him "feel 100 years old." However, he was recently cleared to begin his offseason throwing program and said he would begin strength-training this week.

Will he regain full strength? Rodriguez sure thinks so, telling MLB Network this week, "I will be 100 percent ready for next season.”

MLB Trade Rumors projects that Rodriguez will get $8.3 million through the arbitration process for the 2021 season, which will be his last year of eligibility.

Given his relative youth, Rodriguez would likely garner an open-market contract next winter in the range of at least five years at $15-$17 million per season, assuming that he performs well in 2021. If the Red Sox made him such an offer, Rodriguez would likely sign without a second thought.

The Red Sox rotation remains desperately thin at present. Chris Sale won't return until mid-season. Nathan Eovaldi is continually injured, having made as many as 30 starts just once in nine seasons. Martin Perez’s option was not picked up, making him a free agent. Tanner Houck has just three major-league starts under his belt. And Nick Pivetta has a 5.40 ERA after 94 career games, meaning he can viewed as nothing more than a reclamation project, despite his great potential.

In short, the Red Sox need Eduardo Rodriquez to be healthy and effective next year and beyond.

That’s something Chaim Bloom is surely considering right now, along with potential trades, non-tender pick ups, and free agents.

If the Red Sox have any desire or intention to spend this offseason, they surely have the payroll space to do so. Boston has a little under $161 million on the books for 2021, well shy of $210 million luxury tax threshold.

Let’s hope they spend wisely. Rodriguez would be a good place to start.

How Much Did Dave Dombrowksi Exhaust the Red Sox Farm System?

 

Dave Dombrowksi was at the helm when the Red Sox won the 2018 World Series. Some of Dombrowski’s trade acquisitions played a big role in securing Boston's ninth World Series title. Chris Sale, Craig Kimbrel and Drew Pomeranz, for example, were all acquired during Dombrowski’s tenure.

However, Dombrowksi has also been criticized for draining the Red Sox farm system in the process. In essence, he had a short-term plan, in which he cashed in many of his top-prospect chips for a chance at a title, and he won that bet.

In all, Dombrowksi traded seven of the Red Sox' top-10 prospects as president of baseball operations. Let’s review those deals:

• Dombrowksi traded Manuel Margot and Javier Guerra to the Padres in a five-player deal for Craig Kimbrel.

• He sent elite pitching prospect Anderson Espinoza to San Diego for starting pitcher Drew Pomeranz.

• He traded Mauricio Dubon to the Brewers as part of a four-player package for setup man Tyler Thornburg.

• Dombrowski also dealt top-ranked prospects Yoan Moncada, Michael Kopech and Luis Alexander Basabe to the White Sox for ace lefty Chris Sale.

Though these trades helped the Red Sox secure a World Series Championship in 2018, Dombrowski has been criticized for depleting the minor league ranks. Boston's farm system is currently ranked No. 25 by MLB.com.

Let’s look at how those seven players are faring:

Manuel Margot - center fielder, Tampa

Four seasons - .249/.304/.392/.696

Javier Guerra - SS/RHP, Padres

22 innings, 8.18 ERA, 1.81 WHIP

19 PA, .125/.263/.125/.388

Anderson Espinoza  - RHP, Padres

In July 2017, Espinoza was diagnosed with a torn ulnar collateral ligament in his pitching elbow. He underwent Tommy John surgery which sidelined him for the remainder of the 2017 season and the entire 2018 season.

Espinoza underwent a second Tommy John surgery in April 2019 and missed the entire 2019 season. He has yet to appear in the majors.

Mauricio Dubon - OF/2B/SS, Giants

Two seasons - 233 PA ,.278/.317/.411/.728

Yoan Moncada - 2B/3B, White Sox

Four seasons - .263/.337/.452/.789

Michael Kopech - RHP, White Sox

14.1 innings, 20 hits, 15 K, 5.02 ERA

In September 2018, Kopech underwent Tommy John surgery, causing him to miss the rest of the 2018 season plus the entire 2019 season. In July, Kopech announced he would be sitting out the 2020 season due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Luis Alexander Basabe - LF, Giants

Basabe has never made a plate appearance in the majors. However, he has appeared in two games this season as a pinch runner.

In summation, just two of these seven prospects have turned out to be serviceable major league players: Margot and Moncada.

As we can see, Margot has a .696 OPS after four seasons. It’s safe to say that he is not a big loss for Boston.

Moncada has shown more promise, especially after a 2019 season in which he slashed .315/.367/.548/.915, with 25 homers and 79 RBI over 132 games. However, 2019 was the outlier over Moncada's four seasons and he has regressed to his mean this year. Remove last season from his career totals and Moncada is slashing a less impressive .230/.310/.368/.678.

Sale has clearly been much more critical to the Red Sox’ fortunes, even though he underwent Tommy John surgery and missed the 2020 season. No Red Sox fan in their right mind would rescind the trade that sent Moncada to the White Sox for Sale.

The other five prospects haven’t yet developed into viable big leaguers and they may never.

The other thing that should be remembered is that prospects are supposed to matriculate through the minor league system and reach the major leagues. During Dombrowski’s tenure with Boston, Rafael Devers and Andrew Benintendi both graduated from the minors to the majors. Though neither player was drafted by Dombrowski, their matriculation thinned the ranks of the Sox’ minor league system. That’s what’s expected to happen; prospects aren’t supposed to remain in the minors forever just to maintain the strength of the farm system.

It’s also worth remembering that Dombrowski hired Alex Cora, who, Astro’s sign-stealing scandal aside, was instrumental in delivering the 2018 World Series title. 

Dombrowski also signed free agents David Price, J.D. Martinez, and Mitch Moreland, who were all critical in winning that title.

Additionally, Dombrowski obtained 2018 World Series MVP Steve Pearce in a trade that sent minor league infielder Santiago Espinal to Toronto. Espinal made his major league debut with the Blue Jays just this season. That seemingly minor deal had huge ramifications for Boston.

Dombrowski also acquired Nathan Eovaldi for lefty Jalen Beeks in a July 2018 trade with Tampa. Without Eovaldi, the Red Sox wouldn’t have won the 2018 World Series. The subsequent four-year, $68 million free-agent contract that Dombrowski gave him may be regrettable in retrospect, but the acquisition of Eovaldi was still critically important to the Red Sox’ fortunes.

It’s also worth noting that Beeks has thrown 174.1 innings in the majors, delivering a 4.54 ERA and 1.47 WHIP. Over those 174 innings, the lefty has allowed 188 hits, while striking out just 157 batters. Additionally, Beeks tore his ulnar collateral ligament in August and subsequently underwent Tommy John surgery. He is expected to miss the entire 2021 season. It’s safe to say that the Red Sox have not, and will not, miss him.

Almost any critique of Dombrowski’s tenure as the Red Sox president of baseball operations involves his decision to trade some top prospects. However, absent those trades, the Red Sox wouldn’t have won the 2018 World Series. And, in retrospect, none of those prospects has developed into an elite player. None of them, not even Moncada, looks like the type of player around whom the Red Sox could have built their roster.

With all that in mind, Dombrowski deserves credit, not blame.

The weaknesses in the Red Sox’ farm system are related to players, drafted before Dombrowski’s tenure, failing to reach the majors.

However, Bobby Dalbec, Tristan Casas were both drafted under Dombrowski’s watch, and both appear to have bright futures. Each could be critical in the Red Sox pending rebuild; that’s worth remembering now and in the years ahead.

Current Red Sox Team Among Worst in Franchise History

 

Martin Perez, who has a 2-4 record, a 4.07 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP, has been the Red Sox' best pitcher this season.

When I was a kid, in the '70s and '80s, the Red Sox usually fielded good teams. They were rarely great, but they were often good enough to provide some heartbreak by season's end. Though they went to the World Series in '75 and '86, they lost in seven games both times.

However, they were rarely a terrible team either.

This century, we've witnessed four World Series Championships in Boston, which has been both breath-taking and joyous to behold. This is the Red Sox’ Golden Era. They are truly the team of the 21st Century. Yet, we've seen some real stinkers too; the 2012 team finished 69-93 and the 2014 team finished 71-91. In between, they somehow won a World Series in 2013, famously going from worst to first to worst again.

The Red Sox have fielded a lot of mediocre teams in their 120-year history, but relatively few truly terrible ones, like we're witnessing this season.

The franchise's low came in 1932, when the Sox finished 43-111 — a .279 winning percentage. The 2020 team needs go 17-43 to exceed that. Best of luck to them.

The current Red Sox club has a .316 winning percentage. Only two Red Sox teams have ever finished with a lower percentage. Just eleven times in their long history have Red Sox teams finished with a winning percentage below .400. This year will be the twelfth.

1965 - .383

1932 - .279

1930 - .338

1929 - .377

1928 - .373

1927 - .331

1926 - .326

1925 - .309

1922 - .396

1907 - .396

1906 - .318

As you can see, the 1922-1932 Red Sox teams were abysmal; be grateful we didn’t live through that. 

Few Red Sox fans can remember the last truly awful Red Sox team — the ’65 club. Their .383 winning percentage provides some perspective on the stunning rise of the 1967 “Impossible Dream” team, which beat all odds and somehow made it to the World Series… where they proceeded to lose to St. Louis in seven games. That was the year the Red Sox became iconic in Boston. They’ve been hugely popular throughout New England ever since.

Until now.

After winning 108 regular-season games and then the World Series in 2018, the 2019 club responded by going 84-78, finishing third in the AL East. Consequently, the defending World Series champs didn’t even qualify for the playoffs. That made many of us feel that they had become complacent, even lazy. They returned essentially the same championship team, yet were somehow a shadow of their former selves.

Then, in February, the Red Sox traded super star and fan favorite Mookie Betts, a highly unpopular move, though a wise one. Fans were justifiably angry and there was a backlash. The team surely lost some support in the process and, not surprisingly, ratings are down this season.

Yet, the Red Sox weren’t contenders with Betts and David Price on the roster last season. So, back in February, after the Red Sox traded the pair to the Dodgers, no one realistically expected the Red Sox to compete for a championship this year. They were a team in transition, resetting their payroll, with an eye on 2021 and beyond.

Then, in March, it was announced that ace lefty Chris Sale would need to undergo Tommy John surgery and would miss this season (and beyond). Next came the COVID-19 diagnosis for Eduardo Rodriguez, followed by a related heart infection. His season was also ended before it even began. At that point, all hope (whatever hope there might have been) was lost for the 2020 Red Sox.

Over the winter, the Sox replaced the departing Rick Porcello with Martin Perez, which has gone reasonably well to this point (4.07 ERA, 1.21 WHIP), but the team returned only one starter from last season — Nathan Eovaldi — who was supposed to be the anchor. To say the righty hasn’t lived up to his four-year, $68 million contract would be an understatement. This season, Eovaldi has gone 2-2, with a 4.98 ERA, which follows a 2-1, 5.99 ERA output in an injury-riddled 2019 season.

When you return one-fifth of your starting rotation and fill out the remaining holes with guys like Zack Godley, Ryan Weber and Kyle Hart, it’s little wonder that this Red Sox squad is in a battle not to be the worst in team history.

The Red Sox continued inability to develop starting pitchers haunts them, year after year.

No one expected JD Martinez to slash an uncharacteristic .233/.315/.403/.718 this season or for Rafael Devers to take a huge step back by slashing .257/.310/.458/.768 or that Andrew Benintendi would barely look like major leaguer while slashing .103/.314/.128/.442.

In short, everything that could have gone wrong for the Red Sox this season has gone wrong. But this is an anomaly. Things will surely turn around next year (at least somewhat) and in the years ahead. The Red Sox will again become contenders, rather than laughing stocks.

As I’ve previously contended, John Henry and Tom Werner have proven that they will consistently put a winning team on the field in most seasons. Since that duo bought the Red Sox in Dec. 2001, they've been first, second or third in payroll for 14 of those 19 years. Moreover, they've been top-six in spending for every single one of them. They’ve earned the benefit of the doubt, if not our trust. By the way, Boston still has the third-highest payroll in baseball this season.

The Red Sox are a big-market team with lots of spending capacity and a history of utilizing it. We have every reason to believe — to expect — that ownership will open the checkbook and become free agent spenders once again. However, they need to do it judiciously; no more unwarranted spending on players like Carl Crawford, Pablo Sandoval, Hanley Ramirez, and Nathan Eovaldi.

If you’re expecting the Red Sox to make a big splash on a free-agent pitcher this offseason, don’t. There will be a dearth of available talent, highlighted by names such as Marcus Stroman, Mike Minor, Jake Odorizzi and Robbie Ray.

This rebuild may take a while, so be patient, Red Sox fans. Chaim Bloom has his work cut out for him. The Red Sox farm system is currently ranked No. 25 out of 30 teams by MLB.com. That’s why Bloom made an effort in recent deadline trades to secure minor league talent to round out that system.

In the meantime, we’re left wondering if this unwatchable Red Sox unit will avoid the ignominious distinction of becoming the worst Red Sox team of all time. Ugh.

The Red Sox Inability to Develop Starters Is Haunting Them

Nathan Eovaldi, who has a 4-3 record and a 5.49 ERA since the start of 2019, anchors the Red Sox' rotation.

The Red Sox have used 11 different starting pitchers this season, and they did so within their first 22 games, which is both mind-boggling and record-tying.

Boston has used the following pitchers to start games (so far) this year: Nathan Eovaldi, Martín Pérez, Colten Brewer, Ryan Brasier, Ryan Weber, Zack Godley, Austin Brice, Josh Osich, Matt Hall, Chris Mazza and Kyle Hart.

Only Eovaldi and Brasier were with Boston prior to last season; both joined the club in 2018.

Pérez signed a one-year, free-agent contract with the Red Sox in December. He had posted a 6.22 ERA with Texas in 2018 and a 5.22 ERA with Minnesota in 2019.

Brewer was obtained from the Padres for infielder Esteban Quiroz after the 2018 season. He had made just 11 relief appearances for San Diego, recording a 5.59 ERA in the process. Brewer was twice sent to Pawtucket during the 2019 season.

Weber signed a minor league contract with Boston in December 2018. He was previously waived by Atlanta, DFA'd by Seattle, and twice DFA'd by Tampa.

Godley signed a minor league deal with Boston in July of this year. He was previously DFA'd by Arizona and Toronto, and then released by Detroit.

Brice was acquired in January from the Marlins in exchange for minor league second baseman Angeudis Santos. Brice was previously waived by Cincinnati and the LA Angels, and then DFA'd by both Baltimore and Miami.

Osich was claimed off waivers last October. He had been previously DFA'd by San Francisco and Baltimore, and then waived by the White Sox.

Hall was obtained from Detroit in January for minor league catcher Jhon Nuñez. The Sox assigned him to Class-A Advanced Salem. Hall posted a 14.63 ERA over five appearances with Detroit in 2018 and a 7.71 ERA over 16 appearances in 2019.

Mazza was claimed off waivers in December and optioned to Class-A Advanced Salem. He had been released by both Minnesota and Miami, and was then DFA'd by the Mets.

Hart was drafted by the Red Sox in the 19th round of the 2016 draft. He is the only one of these 11 pitchers that was drafted and developed by the Red Sox.

None of the seven pitchers signed by Boston during the offseason or during this season provided any reasonable sense of hope or optimism. At best, they were long shots.

Eovaldi is the only one among this large group who was in Boston's starting rotation last season.

The losses of Chris Sale and Eduardo Rodriguez have been devastating to the Sox' rotation, to say nothing of the trade of David Price to the Dodgers. When any team is reduced to one-fifth of it’s previous season’s rotation, it is in big trouble or, at least, in big transition. 

Rick Porcello’s free agent departure to the Mets is a wash; the righty has gone 1-3, with a 5.76 ERA and 1.64 WHIP this season.

However, the Red Sox troubles aren’t solely related to the absences/losses of Sale, Rodriguez, Price and Porcello; they’re related to the organization’s decade-long failure to draft and develop successful starting pitchers. The last such pitcher was Clay Buchholz, who debuted all the way back in 2007.

The Red Sox inability in this regard has been both extraordinary and uncanny. This is why they've consistently resorted to signing costly free agents and trading valuable minor league talent to acquire big league pitchers through the years.

The rest of the Red Sox pitching staff is comprised by castoffs and reclamation projects.

Dylan Covey was obtained from Tampa in a July trade. He had a 6.96 ERA through 250 major league innings. Consequently, Covey was not on the Rays’ 40-man roster at the time of the trade.

Jeffrey Springs was obtained in a January trade with Texas in exchange for Sam Travis. The lefty had pitched 32 innings for the Rangers in each of the previous two seasons, posting a 4.89 ERA.

Robert Stock was claimed off waivers from the Phillies in July. At the time, Stock had a 4.11 ERA over 50 1/3 career innings as a reliever with the Padres from 2018-19. The righty, who was a second-round pick for the Cardinals in the 2009 draft, had stints in Mexico and independent baseball before making his big league debut in 2018.

Josh Taylor was acquired from Arizona in May 2018 as the "player to be named later" in the Deven Marrero trade. At the time, Taylor had been playing in Class A-Advanced.

Marcus Walden had been in the Toronto, Oakland and Minnesota organizations before signing with the Red Sox in December 2016. He made his big league debut with Boston in 2018.

Phillips Valdéz had been with the Cleveland, Washington, Texas and Seattle organizations before being claimed off waivers in February.

Is it any wonder that the Red Sox 5.89 staff ERA is the second-worst in baseball?

It’s also worth noting that the Red Sox still have the third-highest payroll in baseball this season. Clearly, they’re not getting a reasonable return on their investment.

The Red Sox are in the midst of a considerable rebuild or transition. We can assume that E-Rod will be back in the rotation next season, but Sale may not be back until mid-season. If Eovaldi and/or Pérez aren’t traded, Boston will still need two more reliable starters for its rotation next year.

It’s hard to imagine any of the pitchers mentioned above being one of them.

Among the Red Sox' top-ten prospects, according to MLB.com, five are pitchers: Bryan Mata (R), Noah Song (R), Jay Groome (L), Thad Ward (R) and Tanner Houck (R). Only Mata and Houck are advanced enough to potentially pitch in the majors next season. Yet, both remain entirely unproven at the major league level and could ultimately end up in the bullpen.

In other words, Boston still doesn’t have internal answers to its numerous pitching problems.

The failures of the Red Sox' pitching development program will continue to haunt them for at least the next few seasons.