After last night’s blockbuster trade of former MVP Mookie Betts and former Cy Young winner David Price, Red Sox Nation is likely feeling a bit shocked. Everyone is surely asking, "Is this really the best the Red Sox could do?"
This appears to be a straight-up salary dump by Boston, which is very unusual for the club. Most of us aren’t accustomed to this.
By giving up their best all-around player (and one of the very best in the game), as well as their No. 2/No. 3 starter, the Red Sox seem to be writing off the 2020 season. At the least, this deal won't make Boston more competitive in the coming season.
But, look at it this way: the Sox finished in third place and missed the playoffs last year -- with Betts and Price. They can likely do the same again without them this year and save a lot of money in the process, while getting under the CBT. If the Sox kept Betts until the end of this season and gave him a qualifying offer, which he’d quickly reject, they'd only get a compensation pick when Betts walked. Alex Verdugo is a major league-ready talent, so he's worth far more than a compensation pick, who might take four or five years to get to the majors — if he ever makes it at all.
Verdugo became a full-time player with the Dodgers in 2019, playing in 106 games and getting 343 at bats. In that span, he slashed .282/.335/.449/.784 with 28 doubles, 14 homers and 49 RBI. The Sox surely like the fact that he comes with five years of team control.
Former Red Sox Lou Merloni reported that Boston offered Betts a 10-year, $300 million contract extension following the 2018 season. Betts countered with 12 years and $420 million and the deal fell apart. In other words, the two sides were miles apart and there was no bridging that gap.
As history shows, no player is worth a 10-year investment, much less a 12-year investment. The Sox were wise to walk away from the bargaining table. Six years from now, this will seem like a wise move. Remember, just four years ago, Sox' fans were thrilled when Price signed a seven-year deal. Oh, how the times have changed. Long-term contracts have a way of doing that.
So, what about Price?
ESPN’s Buster Olney reported that front offices in baseball told him if Price were a free agent, he would only be worth a one-year, $12 million deal, or two years at $18 million, because of his elbow issues. Everyone in baseball now has the same analytical information; almost all of them arrive at the same evaluations and conclusions these days. The Red Sox weren’t about to con anyone about Price’s value.
The Red Sox and their fans have to accept that Price’s seven-year, $217 million contract was a bad one from the start. He never lived up to it for the first four years (the 2018 World Series notwithstanding), and things aren’t going to get better over the next three. It was a mistake, and now the Sox are at least halfway free of the remaining obligation; they're picking up about half of the remaining $96 million on his contract.
Ultimately, after paying the Dodgers for the next three seasons, the Red Sox will have given Price a whopping $172 million for four years of service and one World Series Championship. It's a steep price and fans can argue over that value. But it makes Price's wearying tenure all the more bitter.
That isn’t to say Price was a bust. He posted a 46-24 record and 3.84 ERA in 103 appearances (98 starts) over four seasons. That’s not bad, but it's just not worthy of $32 million per season either. Oh, and Price never made an All Star team or earned even a single Cy Young vote while with Boston.
By the way, Price was set to earn 10/5 trade rights after this season, making this an ideal time, perhaps the only time, to trade him. If Price gets injured or is ineffective leading up to the trade deadline, the Sox will have dodged a bullet.
However, if Price excels in LA, every Sox fan will say, "Why can't we get guys like that?" Or, "We got fleeced!"
Yes, it’s a real bummer that the Red Sox will pay the Dodgers $16 million in each of the next three seasons to have Price pitch in LA. But the Sox might have found a diamond in Brusdar Graterol (what a name!); the righty throws a 101 mph sinker. The Red Sox prospect list has just been updated and Graterol is the new No. 1 prospect in Boston's system, according to FanGraphs. He just might be the Sox' fifth starter this season.
Despite paying the Dodgers half of Price's salary, in one fell swoop, the Red Sox have lopped $43 million from this year's payroll. That will give them lots of flexibility at the July deadline, next season and beyond. If they’re over-performing at midsummer, it gives them the ability to take on a player with a big contract.
Yes, it's a shame that the Sox didn't pull off this deal back in December, when many of the top free agents were still available. Imagine what the Sox could have done with the savings back then. But, as I've said previously, this deal is about taking a step back in 2020 in order to take two steps ahead in 2021 and beyond.
In case you're wondering why the Red Sox didn't make a deal with San Diego, consider this: the Padres wanted the Red Sox to take Wil Myers and pay half of his $68 million contract. Meyers is 29 years old. Over the course of his seven-year career, he's averaged a 1.39 WAR each season. Over his last three full seasons, he's averaged 169 strikeouts.
Since winning the 2013 American League Rookie of the Year Award, Meyers has failed to bat above .259 or compile an .800 OPS. That's a span of six seasons. In other words, he has never realized his promise or lived up to all the hype.
That's the guy the Padres wanted the Red Sox to accept... for Mookie Betts. Oh, and Meyers’ regrettable contract still has three years remaining.
There are only so many teams that could afford Betts' $27 million salary and even fewer that were willing to rent him for just one year with no guarantee that he’ll return in 2021. The Dodgers are one of the limited few with that capacity.
And the Dodgers were one of the few teams that was also willing and able to take on half of Price’s burdensome contract…all in the name of landing Betts, so that they can make one great World Series push and try to finally put their post-season woes behind them.
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