The Red Sox (92-67) are playing the Astros (99-60) in the final series of the regular season. The matchup is a likely preview of the American League Division Series, which will begin next Tuesday, Oct. 5.
Boston was crushed by Houston last night, 12-2, a drubbing that should concern both the Red Sox and their fans. The loss came on the heels of Boston dropping two of three games to last-place Toronto, a team that has lost more games than it has won this season.
Though the Red Sox suffered a beat down at the hands of their likely playoff opponent, their magic number still fell to 1 due to the Yankees loss to Tampa. This is what it’s come down to for Boston. They can’t count on winning their way into the postseason, but may need to rely on their arch rival losing in order to gain entry.
Despite winning 92 games so far this season, the Red Sox do not inspire confidence. Do you believe they are better than the Indians (100-59) or the Astros? I don't and the records reveal why.
Houston has scored 11 or more runs in four consecutive games, leading to a franchise-record 49 runs in that four-game span. It wasn’t all offense either; the pitching and defense are doing their parts too. The Astros won each of those four contests by at least 9 runs, making them the first team to do so since the Detroit Wolverines in 1887. Remember them?
Houston has also won 12 of its last 14 games. Clearly, they are peaking at the right time. The Astros can reach 100 wins for only the second time in team history with a victory in any of the final three games against Boston.
The Red Sox, on the other hand, are limping into the playoffs behind some really weak starting pitching as of late. The latest poor performance came from Eduardo Rodriguez, who was tagged for five runs on six hits and two walks over just 1 2/3 innings last night.
Chris Sale (17-8, 2.90 ERA) and Drew Pomeranz (16-6, 3.38 ERA) are undoubtedly Boston’s two top starters. Yet, each has been shaky as of late. Perhaps they are both feeling the burden of a six-month season.
Sale’s late-season inconsistency is really worrisome and couldn’t come at a worse time, since the playoffs begin next week. In his last eight starts dating back to Aug. 19, he is 3-4 with a 4.30 ERA.
How unpredictable has he been? In the three wins, he didn't give up any runs.
At this point, when Sale takes the mound, the Red Sox aren't sure which version they'll get. That's a nightmare for Boston since he is, by far, the team's very best starter.
Pomeranz has thrown 167 2/3 innings so far, putting him just three away from his career-high set a year ago. He appears worn down, as evidenced by the fact that his velocity has declined. Over his last four outings, the lefty’s fastball has fallen to 89-91 mph, after averaging 92.74 mph in August.
Boston’s projected Game 2 starter in the ALDS was pulled Monday night after just two innings in which he allowed five runs on seven hits and one walk. He struck out none. The Red Sox went on to lose the game, 6-4, to the Blue Jays.
Pomeranz is scheduled to take his final regular season start on Saturday against the Astros, who will be watching him very closely. If the Red Sox can win the AL East tonight via a win or a Yankees loss, they might choose to rest Pomeranz and not give him more exposure to Houston’s powerful lineup.
Boston will need at least one additional starter for the playoffs. Who that will be remains unclear. If the decision is a matter of merit, as it customarily is, no one has stepped up and earned the privilege.
Rick Porcello, the 2016 AL Cy Young Award winner, finished the 2017 regular season with an 11-17 record (the most losses of his career) and a 4.65 ERA. Porcello gave up his 37th and 38th homers this season on Wednesday, tying the club record set by Tim Wakefield in 1996.
In a normal world, Porcello would never make a playoff roster. In the Red Sox world, he may be viewed as a better alternative than Doug Fister (5-6, 4.69) or Eduardo Rodriguez (6-7, 4.22).
David Price, the Red Sox $217 million starter, has missed half the season due to a left elbow injury. Two stints on the disabled list have limited him to just 11 starts this year. It won’t surprise me in the least if Price ultimately requires Tommy John surgery during the offseason, which would cost him the 2018 season.
In the meantime, the lefty may to contribute to the Red Sox as a reliever. He could serve the team in high-leverage situations out of the pen, as long as his elbow holds up. In the past week, he has twice struck out the side in a relief role, which seems to serve him well at present.
Then there’s the Red Sox offense.
Among the 15 American League teams, Boston is ninth in batting (.258) and 14th in slugging (.408).
Most remarkably, the Red Sox will finish last in the American League in home runs for the first time since 1930. Boston has hit 167 homers in 159 games this season; there are nine AL clubs with over 200.
Though Boston has four players with at least 20 home runs this season (Betts, Ramirez, Moreland and Benintendi), not one of them has as many as 25. This is in the same year that Major League Baseball has set a single-season home-run record. In other words, this shouldn’t be happening now.
The Red Sox are poised to win the AL East for the second straight season. It would mark the first time in club history that Boston has won back-to-back division titles.
It’s amazing that this 117-year-old franchise has never won back-to-back AL East titles, and normally it would be viewed as such a great feat and an honorable distinction.
This season, however, it seems meaningless.
Of course, there is hope. This is a very determined and resilient Red Sox team. They have won 11 games in which they were trailing after seven innings, the most in the majors. Boston is also 15-3 in extra innings this season, tying the 1943 Red Sox for most extra-inning wins, and they lead the Majors with an .833 winning percentage in extras.
I actually like this Red Sox team a lot. There is plenty to like. They are young and, with the exception of Mitch Moreland, the lineup is almost entirely homegrown. When Sam Travis starts at first and Hanley Ramirez is the DH, the Red Sox field a team in which every player was drafted by the organization.
This unit will largely remain intact and be very competitive for years to come. Yet, they have clear offensive flaws (namely a lack of power) and most of the starters have woefully underperformed.
In a week or so, I think we’ll all be left saying, “Wait until next year.”
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