Sunday, November 15, 2015
Did the Red Sox Overpay for Craig Kimbrel?
Some are already asking if the Red Sox overpaid for closer Craig Kimbrel.
In a word, no.
Kimbrel is just 27 and in his prime. He has been an All Star four times in his four full seasons. In that time, he has been absolutely dominant, posting a 1.70 ERA and a 0.91 WHIP.
How good is Kimbrel?
Since 2011, he leads Major Leaguers in saves (224), ranks second in ERA (1.70), strikeouts (523), strikeouts-per-nine innings (14.37), and save percentage (90.7); is third in WHIP (0.91) and opponents' batting average (.160); and is fourth in hits allowed per nine innings (5.05).
While it's particularly difficult to part with the highly-talented Manny Margot, as a center fielder he was blocked by Mookie Betts for the next few years, at least.
Margot is 21 and highly athletic. He is a similar player, and possesses many of the same skill sets, as Betts. But he may never be as good at the major league level, where Betts has already proven himself.
The center fielder was promoted to Portland last season and only played 64 games at the Double-A level. He is projected to reach the majors by late next season, but given his limited exposure at the Double-A level, and that he has never played at Triple-A, that may be optimistic.
The Red Sox top three position prospects are/were Yoan Moncada, Rafael Devers and Margot. They still have two of the three.
Obtaining a closer of Kimbrel's caliber was going to have significant player acquisition costs, no matter what.
Margot was ranked third among Red Sox prospects by MLB.com and shortstop Javier Guerra was rated sixth.
But Guerra was blocked at short by rising star Xander Bogaerts.
A reasonable critique of the Red Sox in this deal is that they could have used those assets to instead obtain a frontline starter.
The Sox desperately need to fill that void as well, but perhaps Dave Dombrowski and company felt they could more likely fill that need through free agency (David Price?) than find an elite closer.
Boston has control of Kimbrel for the next three season at a price that they can afford. They will pay him $11 million next season, $13 million in 2017, and they hold a club option worth $13 million in 2018.
Again, he is just 27-yaears-old.
As I've said many times, prospects are nice, but they are a gamble. You roll the dice with them every time.
Think about the faith the Sox once had in prospects such as Michael Bowden, Lars Anderson, Anthony Ranaudo, Drake Britton, Ryan Kalsih, Garin Cecchini and on and on.
The Sox also had great plans for Casey Kelly and Reymond Fuentes, who they sent to San Diego in 2010 (along with Anthony Rizzo) for Adrian Gonzalez.
Where are they now?
After undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2012, Kelly is still languishing in the Padres farm system as a converted reliever, while Fuentes is now toiling in the Royals' farm system.
In short, neither player panned out as projected. The Red Sox never missed them.
It's likely that Betts and Bogaerts are better than Margot and Guerra will ever be, and that's all that really matters.
If you're the Boston Red Sox, you take the elite major league closer over the minor league prospects any time. This is a team that is expected to compete for a championship every year. They have lots of young talent still in their system, and should remain competitive for years to come as a result.
In short, the Red Sox are much more likely to be thankful for this trade over the next few years (at least) than to regret it.