Newcomer Lucas Giolito will attempt to anchor the Red Sox rotation this season.
There are 1458 innings in a 162-game season, not including extras. The Red Sox starters will be tasked with pitching the bulk of them. Yet, that seems like a highly dubious proposition from the outset.
Boston’s starting five will consists of Lucas Giolito, who has 178 career starts, and Brayan Bello, who has made just 39. Every other pitcher upon whom the Red Sox will rest their hopes would be in the bullpen of any competitive team. But the Sox ignored the rotation this offseason and will roll the dice with a host of inexperienced, unproven starters. The question remains: How will the Sox account for all those innings this season?
Giolito has averaged 5.2 innings per start over his eight-year career. He’ll turn 30 this season and isn’t likely to suddenly become an Iron Man.
Bello has averaged 5.1 innings in his 39 career starts. He’ll turn 25 in May, so his innings per start could improve this season and will need to.
Nick Pivetta has made 152 career starts, averaging 5.1 innings. Going into his age-31 season, he will need to boost that to at least 6 innings per start. Possible? Yes. Likely? No.
Kutter Crawford has made just 36 career starts, averaging about 4.2 innings per start. He turns 28 on April 1 and will need to significantly increase his innings total this season. Again, not very likely.
The Red Sox told Garrett Whitlock (age 27), Tanner Houck (age 27) and Josh Winckowski (age 25) all to prepare as starting pitchers for spring training. Yet, all of them have performed much better as relievers.
Houck has a 4.17 ERA in 41 career starts (198 ⅓ innings) and a 2.68 ERA in 33 career relief outings (53 ⅔ innings). He’s averaged just 4.2 innings per start.
Winckowski has also enjoyed great success as a reliever, posting a 2.88 ERA in 84 ⅓ innings. In a mere 15 career starts, Winckowski has also averaged 4.2 innings per start.
In totality, every single potential member of the Red Sox rotation has averaged about 5 or fewer innings per start in his career. There isn't one horse in the bunch. Imagine a perfect world in which every one of them were to make 30 starts, pitching five innings per start, for a total of 150 innings. In such a scenario, the five starters would account for 750 innings this season, leaving the bullpen to pitch the at least 708 innings. That scenario, of course, is a pipe dream. It is unimaginable that each of them will make 30 starts this season, much less pitch five innings in each of them. Expect the bullpen to go from stressed to distressed.
Here's the Red Sox projected rotation (five of the seven will get a spot):
STARTER - CAREER STARTS, ERA, WHIP
Brayan Bello - 39, 4.37, 1.46
Nick Pivetta - 152, 4.86, 1.35
Kutter Crawford - 36, 4.74, 1.25
Tanner Houck - 41, 4.17, 1.25
Garrett Whitlock - 19, 4.76, 1.29
Josh Winckowski - 15, 5.66, 1.55
This is a rotation mostly consisting of No. 4 and No. 5 starters, all of whom have career ERA's of roughly 4.50. Clearly, there is no ace to lead the staff.
Ownership/management seems content to roll the dice and let a looming pitching disaster play out before our eyes. To be clear, having one young, inexperienced, unproven starter in the rotation is to be expected; every pitcher begins his career inexperienced and unproven. But to roll out a rotation in which at least three starting pitchers are inexperienced and unproven is sheer lunacy. And with all due respect, though Pivetta is indeed experienced with 152 career starts, he’s proven that he's best suited for a long relief role and is, perhaps, a No.5 starter. Yet, on this team, he will be the No. 3.
Assembling this Red Sox rotation seems to be akin to spinning a roulette wheel — good luck. The effort involved can be described as some combination of complacent and negligent. Ownership/management have shown no regard for the team or the fans.
Unfortunately, all signs point to yet another last-place finish in 2024.
