Many Red Sox fans are giddy with excitement over the potential that uber free agent Shohei Ohtani might sign with the Olde Towne Team this offseason. After all, he has a sponsorship deal with Reebok! And the Red Sox have finished in last place in each of the last two seasons, three times in the last four and six times in the last dozen years. They desperately need to get back on a winning track and they really need star power to fill seats at Fenway and raise sunken TV ratings.
However, if you look at free agency with the mindset of a business owner or general manager, shelling out upwards of a half-billion dollars for one player, albeit a generational talent, is not a wise allocation of resources.
MLB Trade Rumors, which has a pretty solid history of predicting the terms of free agent contracts, pegs Ohtani at 12 years, $528M. Just imagine what the Red Sox (or any other club for that matter) could do with those same dollars. They could give out two $250M contracts or four $125M deals or five $100M deals and still save money. There are much better ways to spend money and allocate resources.
Again, the Red Sox finished in last place in each of the last two seasons. Is Ohtani the missing piece that suddenly vaults them over the top and back into the World Series? In a word: No. Consider that over six years with the Angels, Ohtani never played in a single playoff game. And he was paired with Mike Trout over the entiety of that span. The two best players in the world couldn’t get the Angels into the playoffs.
What would make anyone believe that things would be any different in Boston? The Red Sox aren’t one superstar player away from World Series contention. They desperately need starting pitching and Ohtani, after having a second Tommy John surgery, won’t pitch at all in 2024. In signing Ohtani, they would blow their entire offseason budget and still not address the rotation for 2024, and perhaps beyond.
Ohtani will be 30 next season and will always carry the concern that he is one pitch away from becoming a full-time hitter. Two Tommy John surgeries are not reassuring. The most prominent among those who have come back from a second TJ are Nathan Eovaldi and Jameson Taillon. That’s a short list.
A better allocation of resources, for example, would be to sign Japanse sensation Yoshinobu Yamamoto. The righty is just 25 years old and has won three consecutive pitching Triple Crowns, as well as three straight Sawamura awards, the Japanese equivalent of the Cy Young. MLB Trade Rumors projects a nine-year, $225M deal for Yamamoto.
Many analysts expect the Red Sox to make two additions to the starting rotation this offseason. Jordan Montgomery has been listed as a Red Sox target this winter. The 30-year-old lefty has gone three straight seasons with a sub-4.00 ERA, while throwing at least 150 innings and making over 30 starts. MLB Trade Rumors has him projected for six years, $150M. Additionally, Montgomery was ineligible for the qualifying offer, which is a bonus. In contrast, Blake Snell, Aaron Nola and Sonny Gray all received the QO.
Based on MLBTR’s projections, the Red Sox could sign both Yamamoto and Montgomery for roughly $375M, which would be about $150M less than Ohtani. That would amount to a much more prudent allocation of resources than signing the modern day Babe Ruth.
The Red Sox certainly need star power to help reinvigorate interest in what has become a moribund franchise. But, first and foremost, they need to field a competitive team starting next season, and they need a whole lot more than Shohei Ohtani to do that. Ohtani will never be able to adequately live up to a 12-year pact exceeding half-a-billion dollars. Let some other team make that mistake. The Red Sox can find more appropriate and resourceful ways to spend their money.
