The Red Sox defensive struggles were on display for the baseball world to see this season. It was unmistakable. The team was third-worst in the majors in Defensive Efficiency Ratio. While the Red Sox have inferior defenders at both first base (Triston Casas) and third base (Rafael Devers), they also have inferior defenders in the outfield: Masa Yoshida and Jarren Duran.
The latter rated -5 in defensive runs saved (DRS) in center and he was an even 0 in outs above average (OAA). Yoshida was worth just 1.4 bWAR and only 0.6 fWAR, mostly due to his poor defense and base-running. Yoshida rated -8 in outs above average (OAA), which was fifth-worst among left fielders — and that’s playing half his games in Fenway Park, which is the smallest left field in the majors. While Yoshida started hot offensively, he cooled considerably as the season progressed and ended up with a rather pedestrian .289/.338/.445/.783 slash line. The guy's greatest skills are bat-to-ball and on base, yet he didn’t bat .300 or reach a .350 OBP. He didn’t slug .500 and his OPS was below .800. None of that warrants a $90M deal.
The only reliable defender in the outfield is Alex Verdugo, who is entering his final season of arbitration eligibility and could be a trade candidate. MLB Trade Rumors projects that Verdugo will make $9.2M in 2024. While Verdugo played strong defense and is a Gold Glove candidate, his offense was around league average (.264/.324/.421/.745).
As if defensive shortcomings weren’t problematic enough for the Red Sox outfield, none of the three above outfielders even reached 20 homers this season. Yoshida (15 HR), Verdugo (13 HR) and Duran (8 HR) simply aren't power hitters. Poor defense and little-to-no power is not a workable scenario going forward.
Running the current group back into the outfield next season doesn’t seem wise or realistic. That’s why Verdugo is a trade candidate, as may be Duran, whose value has never been higher. Duran enjoyed a breakout season at the plate, slashing .295/.346/.482, with 8 homers, 40 RBI, 34 doubles, and a team-leading 24 stolen bases in 102 games. He entered the 2023 campaign with a career OPS+ of 69 (31 points below average) but leaped to a 120 mark (20 points above average) this season. The Sox may view selling high as a wise move right now.
Yoshida is on a long-term deal and likely isn’t going anywhere. He’ll have to DH quite a bit going forward, which isn’t what the club was projecting. But Verdugo and Duran could be headed elsewhere. Wilyer Abreu and Ceddanne Rafaela both saw big league action this season and both offer lots of flexibility because they are controllable and cheap, allowing money to be deployed elsewhere while building the roster. Further, Roman Anthony is viewed as a Top 100 talent and reached Double-A this year. It’s conceivable that he might debut in Boston by late next season.
Expect changes in the Red Sox outfield mix this offseason; they’re much needed.
