Red Sox Pitching Staff Doesn't Inspire Confidence

 

The Red Sox lost Nate Eovaldi, Rich Hill and Michael Wacha this offseason. Consequently, they needed a significant rotation overhaul and upgrade this offseason, but failed to do it. The Sox don’t currently look like a team with legitimate postseason aspirations this year.

The Red Sox rotation will almost certainly run into an innings problem this season. Chris Sale and James Paxton have hardly pitched in the past three years and will likely struggle to handle a starter’s workload for a full season. 

Sale has appeared in just 11 games, tossing 48 1/3 total innings, over the past three seasons. Fellow lefty Paxton has only logged a total of 21 2/3 innings over the past three seasons. The optimistic view is that both pitchers have low-mileage arms. Yet, if the Sox can get about 20-25 starts out of each of them, that would have to be viewed as a success. 

Corey Kluber will be 37 in April and has faced numerous injuries in recent years that have really limited his availability. Just look at his innings totals:

2019 - 35.2

2020 - 1.0

2021 - 80

2022 - 164

Total = 280.2 over four seasons

The team is going to need more arms and innings.

Yet, Brayan Bello threw just 57.1 innings in the bigs last season, and his professional high was 117.2 innings in A-ball back in 2019. Who knows what to expect from him, but that may be his ceiling. Bello also went 2-8, with a 4.71 ERA and 1.78 WHIP, though he did get much better over his final starts.  

Nick Pivetta is the club’s workhorse, having thrown 155 and 179.2 innings over the past two years. However, he posted an ERA above 4.50 in each of them and has a career 5.02 ERA. That’s fifth-starter material.  

What will the Sox do with Garrett Whitlock? The club says they plan to use him as a starter. However, in nine career starts, Whitlock has a 4.15 ERA. Yet, in 68 games as a reliever, he has 2.24 ERA. His presence in the bullpen would greatly strengthen the relief core, especially now that they’ll be without both Matt Barnes and Josh Taylor. Both of those subtractions may be detrimental this season.

Last season, the Red Sox bullpen posted the fifth-worst ERA in baseball (4.59) and was 39-for-67 (58.2%) in save opportunities. Whitlock would help, a lot.

The only other surefire relievers returning from last season are John Schreiber and Tanner Houck, who had back surgery last year. Houck was 8-for-9 in save opportunities in 2022.

This offseason, the Sox added free agent relievers Kenley Jansen (two years, $32M), Joely Rodríguez (1 year, $2 million) and Chris Martin (2 years, $17.5 million). They also traded Josh Taylor, DFA’d Darwinzon Hernandez and lost Matt Strahm to free agency.

Chaim Bloom tells us that the farm system will continually feed this team and return it to a World Series competitor. Take a look a what these young pitchers did last year. It’s not encouraging. 

Kutter Crawford - 12 starts/21 games, 3-6, 5.47 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 77.1 IN, 77 K

Josh Winckowski - 14 starts/15 games, 5-7, 5.89 ERA, 1.59 WHIP, 70.1 IN, 44 K

All these other pitchers on the 40-man roster have little or no major league experience.  

Franklin German

Zack Kelly 

Bryan Mata

Wyatt Mills

Chris Murphy

Kaleb Ort 

Brandon Walter

Meanwhile, the Sox lost a combination of reliability in Hill, and competency in Wacha and Eovaldi. 

Rich Hill - 26 starts, 8-7, 4.27 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 124.1 IN, 109 K

Michael Wacha - 23 starts, 11-2, 3.32 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 127.1 IN, 104 K

Nathan Eovaldi - 19 starts, 5-3, 4.05 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 104.1 IN, 99 K

Taking a big picture view, it’s hard to be optimistic about the starting rotation, or the depth guys that the Sox will surely rely on this season.

Chaim Bloom is the Architect of the Red Sox Mismanagement

 

The Red Sox are currently projected to have about $216M worth of luxury-tax obligations on their ledger, which leaves about $17M worth of spending room before they’d be at risk of paying the tax for a second consecutive season. They’ll probably need to use some of that for a middle-infielder. 

Boston was one of six teams to exceed the CBT threshold in 2022, and the only one that didn't make the playoffs. The Red Sox ended the season $1.2M over CBT mark, in what can only be described as total mismanagement. 

Entering Aug. 2, the day of the 2022 MLB trade deadline, the Red Sox had a 53-52 record, putting them just over the .500 threshold. They were 17 games behind the American League East-leading New York Yankees. The Sox had proven themselves to be a thoroughly mediocre ball club, not a World Series contender, most of the season. Any reasonable person would have concluded that they should be sellers (at least enough to fall below the CBT threshold), not buyers. 

By simply trading either Nathan Eovaldi or J.D. Martinez at the deadline, Chaim Bloom would put the Red Sox below the CBT threshold, avoided any subsequent penalties, and improved their lot for this season. Though the club later issued qualifying offers to both Xander Bogaerts and Eovaldi, as luxury tax payers they will be penalized in the upcoming draft.  

Had the Red Sox gotten under the luxury tax threshold at the deadline, they would have received picks 70 and 71 in the 2023 Draft for the departed Bogaerts and Eovaldi. Instead they will receive picks 133 and 134. They also missed out on roughly $1 million in additional bonus pool money, based on 2022 slot values.

Not only has Bloom continually failed to accurately read the free agent market, which has cost the team repeatedly, he failed to accurately gage and assess his team’s playoff chances, were were essentially nil.

Yes, the installation of a third wild-card spot gave Boston some modicum of hope, but it was the squint-your-eyes variety. The Sox at the time trailed Tampa, Cleveland and Baltimore. That would have amounted to a lot of leap-frogging for a team that could only be described as inconsistent, at best. Their Pythagorean record entering Aug. 2 (their projected record based on runs scored and runs allowed) ranked as the 11th best in the AL. 

Sure enough, that proved to be predictive: the Red Sox went 26-32 after the deadline, finishing eight games behind the Rays.

Yet, Bloom failed to trade some key pending free agents, which would have improved Boston’s lot this season. However, he traded the popular Christian Vazquez, and added Tommy Pham and Eric Hosmer, both of whom are no longer with the team. Neither player added any value or improved the roster in any meaningful way upon arrival. 

The acquisition of Reese McGuire for Jake Diekman was Bloom's only sound move, but it didn’t affect the CBT threshold. That’s what really matters at the moment. 

Everyone in baseball knew about Trevor Story’s elbow issues last offseason. The Sox gambled and lost. Now they need not one but two middle infielders, and that’s where their luxury tax problem is coming home to roost. If Boston goes over the CBT a second season in a row, their penalties will only increase next year, when they might really like to play in the deep end of the free agent pool. 

The possibility of going over the CBT again, and again landing in last place is a disaster that should never occur. But that’s where the Red Sox find themselves at the moment. And it’s all the result of the ‘leadership’ of the incompetent Bloom. He needs to go. 

Red Sox Middle Infield Remains Unsettled and Uncertain

 

The Red Sox held their Winter Weekend convention on Friday evening, where Chaim Bloom and Alex Cora addressed the media and fans. Bloom and John Henry both received a series of sustained boos during the event, and deservedly so.

Cora suggested that Enrique Hernández was the in-house favorite to play shortstop, with Christian Arroyo the likeliest option to man second base.

Though Hernández has experience at every non-catching position on the diamond, he’s primarily played center field, having logged just 618 innings at shortstop through parts of nine MLB seasons. Yet, he's played even fewer at second.

For reference, if a guy plays 150 games in a season, he'd amass 1,350 innings. So, Hernández has played less than half a season at shortstop in his entire career. I'm not saying he's incapable, but the Red Sox certainly won't be playing to his strengths by moving him out of center and not playing him at second.

At age 27, Arroyo remains a tantalizing player. He showed flashes of excellence last season, when he batted .286 over 87 games. However those 87 games marked a career high for Arroyo, who has continually struggled to stay healthy and on the field. Since he debuted in 2017, Arroyo has averaged just 43 games per season, excluding the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, when appeared in just 15 games.

Over six seasons, Arroyo has slashed .255/.307/.400/.708. Entrusting him with a starting role is quite risky.

Now that Adam Duvall has been signed to man center field, where he has started only 55 games in his career, the wisest choice would be to move Hernández to second, where he has played just 454 career innings, but has typically graded out as a solid or better defensively.

The Sox could then sign either Elvis Andrus or José Iglesias to play short. Both players have extensive experience at the position and grade out highly there. Each of them would come fairly cheap at this point in their careers and this offseason. With the absence of Xander Bogaerts and Trevor Story, the Red Sox cannot afford to take further risks up the middle this season.

Arroyo could remain in the utility position that has served him well over the years, manning second base on days when the Sox move Hernández out to center. This would give the team lots of flexibility.

However, the Sox could also sign a veteran second baseman, such as 35-year-old Josh Harrison, to pair with Arroyo. They clearly need insurance at the position, given Arroyo's history.

It's hard to tell whether Boston's plan is set in stone or if their stated position is merely a smokescreen being used as bargaining leverage with free agent shortstops, such as Andrus or Iglesias. Let's hope it's the latter.

If the Sox go with their stated plan, the lineup looks like this:

1. LF Masataka Yoshida (L)

2. SS Kiké Hernandez (R)

3. 3B Rafael Devers (L)

4. DH Justin Turner (R)

5. 1B Triston Casas (L)

6. CF Adam Duvall (R)

7. RF Alex Verdugo (L)

8. 2B Christian Arroyo (R)

9. C Reese McGuire (L)

That lineup comes with too many unknowns.

Yoshida has never played in the majors and was a defensive liability in Japan.

Hernández has never played a full season at shortstop.

Devers is a defensive liability at third.

Justin Turner is 38 years old.

Tristan Casas has played just 27 games in the majors.

Duvall has amassed just 75 innings in center, having primarily played left or right field over his eight seasons.

Verdugo has played a grand total of 151 innings in right field over his entire 6-year career.

Arroyo has averaged just 43 games per season and maxed out at 87 last year.

McGuire played in a career-high 89 games last season and has averaged just 53 games over his four-year career, excluding the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, when appeared in 19 games.

There are question marks all over the field and few reasons for confidence or high hopes this year. And I haven't even addressed the starting rotation, which is a topic for another day.