Friday, December 21, 2018

The Demise of Hitting



MLB hitters are plagued by ineptitude and it's hurting the game. This is exemplified by Yoan Moncada, who whiffed an eye-popping 217 times in 2018.

The ability to make contact has become a lost art in baseball. Players swing for the fences, going for broke, rather than trying to simply put the ball in play. As a result, strikeouts across the majors continue to reach record levels. Major League Baseball set a strikeout record for 11th straight year in 2018, with Ks surpassing 40,000 for the first time. It was also the first season in major league history in which there were more strikeouts than hits.

In fact, three players (Yoan Moncada, Giancarlo Stanton and Joey Gallo) whiffed over 200 times; eight players struck out over 170 times; 16 players fanned at least 160 times; and 27 players struck out at least 150 times.

In 2018, major league hitters, cumulatively, struck out an average of 8.48 times per game, an MLB record. It was the 13th consecutive year with a new record. Sadly, players are shameless about striking out these days; it used to be considered an embarrassment.

Joe DiMaggio only struck out on average of 34 times a season over the course of his 13-year career. More recently, Tony Gwynn struck out just 23 times over 158 games during the 1984 season. Through the course of his career, Gwynn struck out in just 4.7 percent of his at bats.

The explosion of strikeouts has led to plummeting batting averages throughout the game.

Just 16 players across the majors batted at least .300 last season, the fewest since 1978. For comparison, there were 49 qualified batters who hit over .300 in 1998. In 1999 and 2000, more than 50 qualified batters hit at least .300. As recently as 2009, more than 40 qualified batters hit at least .300.

Just three batters hit at least .320 last season. Since 1969, when the mound was lowered from 15 inches to 10 inches, there have only been four other seasons in which just three batters hit at least .320: 1973, 1974, 1978 and 1982.

Additionally, the overall MLB batting average fell to .248, the lowest since the .244 mark in 1972. The American League instituted the designated hitter the very next year in response.

However, 25 players hit at least 30 home runs in 2018 and 43 smacked at least 25.

Making contact has become a matter of luck for far too many players. Most guys are trying to make the ball leave the yard with every swing, and it’s really bad for the game. The increase in strikeouts means fewer balls in play, and fewer balls in play have led to lower batting averages.

I previously wrote about the rise of the Three True Outcomes — strikeouts, walks and home runs. On each of these plate appearances, the ball is not put into play, so the defense is not involved.

As a percentage of plate appearances, the Three True Outcomes in 2018 were the highest in baseball history and a new record has been set each year since 2014. In 2018, 34.2 percent of all plate appearances ended in one of the Three True Outcomes. This has made baseball less interesting because fewer balls are being put into play.

The Three True Outcomes are plaguing baseball, making it boring and slow. The game can’t afford to lose even more young fans/viewers, and the Three True Outcomes are surely part of the declining trend in viewership.

Attendance has dropped league wide for six straight years and for the first time since 2003, baseball failed to bring 70 million fans into ballparks across America. It’s not just declining interest in regular season games either. The ratings for the 2018 World Series were the fourth-lowest ever and were down 25 percent from 2017’s World Series between the Astros and Dodgers.

Hitting matters and it's about more than just belting the ball out of the park. Hitters have always faced a significant disadvantage to pitchers; the best of them get a hit just 30-35 percent of the time. Last year, batters league-wide got a hit just 24.8 percent of the time. While fans certainly enjoy strikeouts, no wants to see that kind of ineptitude. It’s boring and lackluster.

MLB needs to do better, and be far more entertaining, to remain relevant.