The Red Sox have a young, talented, homegrown roster, the likes of which most teams surely envy. Yet, the club wasn't good enough to get out of the first round of the playoffs in either 2016 or 2017, despite winning back-to-back AL East crowns for the first time in club history.
The Red Sox managed to win 93 games this season, in spite of a series of rather obvious flaws.
Boston finished last in the AL in homers, the first time they’ve done so since 1930. Almost every player in the Boston lineup took a giant step back from last season: Hanley Ramirez, Dustin Pedroia, Xander Bogaerts, Mookie Betts, Jackie Bradley and Sandy Leon all experienced considerable declines in 2017.
There will be changes made to the roster this offseason, as there should be. Chris Young and Brock Holt (the team's lone All Star in 2015) likely won’t be back, but those would merely amount to cosmetic changes.
Boston needs a significant addition, particularly a power hitter with positional versatility. This lineup desperately needs a big bopper, and Hanley Ramirez is not that guy.
The 33-year-old’s bating average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage have all declined in three of the last four seasons. In other words, his solid 2016 campaign was an outlier.
Ramirez appeared in just 18 games at first base this year. That lack of versatility hurts the team, as does his weak offensive production: Ramirez slashed .242/.320/.429/.750, with 23 homers and 62 RBI, this season. An inability to adequately play a defensive position, along with poor offensive output, does not warrant $22 million annually.
Ramirez is under contract through the 2018 season, as part of his his four-year, $88 million deal. The contract, however, has a vesting option. Ramirez will be paid $22 million in 2019 if he can combine for 1,050 plate appearances between 2017 and 2018.
Ramirez posted 553 PAs this season, pushing past the halfway mark to vesting his 2019 option. That means Ramirez needs fewer than 500 PA’s next season to guarantee his return in 2019, which is a nightmare scenario for Boston, given that he is very clearly in decline, shoulder problems notwithstanding.
It will be interesting to see if the Red Sox limit Ramirez’s play next year, especially if he struggles, to keep him off the roster and prevent him from collecting a huge pay day in 2019.
Recurring left knee problems forced Pedroia onto the disabled list twice this season. As a result, the second baseman played in just 105 games. Pedroia had arthroscopic surgery on his left knee over the winter only to be re-injured when he was spiked by Baltimore’s Manny Machado in April.
The 34-year-old, who just completed his 12th season, has four years remaining on his eight-year, $110 million contract extension. However, there are good reasons to be concerned about whether Pedroia will be able to fulfill that contract, as his career may be in jeopardy. He is expected to undergo another, more complex, surgery this offseason.
Dave Dombrowski publicly admitted the significance of Pedroia’s injury this season, saying, "The problem for Dustin is, and will be, he has a bad knee. He has a bad knee that he’s going to have to watch, and we're going to have to watch, for the rest of his career."
That sounds ominous and indicates that this is going to be a long term problem. It’s reasonable to wonder how much it will affect Pedroia’s career and if it might even shorten it. The Sox will need to have a contingency plan for second base going forward.
Boston has a talented young nucleus, which includes Betts, Bradley, Bogaerts, Andrew Benintendi, Rafael Devers and Christian Vazquez. But after the back-to-back eliminations in the ALDS, will Dombrowski see any of them as expendable or as bait to improve a team that clearly needs improvement?
Then there’s the rotation, which clearly needs help.
Chris Sale is the only sure thing and, quite fortunately, is under team control for the next two seasons. Defending Cy Young Award winner Rick Porcello lost 17 games and posted a 4.65 ERA. The rotation was without David Price for more than half the season and Eduardo Rodriguez (6-7), Doug Fister (5-7), Steven Wright (1-3), Kyle Kendrick (0-2) and Hector Velazquez (0-1) all posted losing records.
Recurring left elbow problems put Price on the disabled list twice this season and held him to just 11 starts. It should surprise no one if Price’s troubled elbow ultimately requires Tommy John surgery. The lefty was limited to 74.2 innings this season, but he has thrown 1,746 frames over the course of his nine-year career. That’s a lot of mileage for a pitcher who is just 31, and the tread is wearing thin.
It’s time to stop waiting for Rodriguez to develop into a frontline starter. He'll be part of the rotation, but he is inconsistent and his health cannot be relied upon. Over three seasons, the lefty has never made more than 24 starts and has averaged just 22.
Yes, Porcello can surely bounce back from his disastrous 2017 campaign, but he is a pitcher with a lifetime 4.25 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. Obviously, those are very mediocre career numbers. His 2016 season was an extreme outlier in a career that has been marked by the ordinary.
Drew Pomeranz is under team control for one more season. His left elbow required a stem cell procedure last winter and it seemed to work. However, he threw a career-high 173.2 innings in 2017 and it clearly wore him down.
Beyond Sale, Porcello and Pomeranz, there are only questions in the Boston rotation. Steven Wright could return, following cartilage restoration surgery on his left knee, but his health remains in question. Neither Brian Johnson, Roenis Elias, Henry Owens or any other minor league pitcher will crack the rotation next season. None of them is a difference maker. The Sox may need some help from outside the organization.
John Farrel’s greatest achievement as manager was fashioning one of the game’s best bullpens out of players like Matt Barnes, Heath Hembree, Blaine Boyer, Fernando Abad and Robby Scott. Somehow, the Red Sox bullpen managed to post the second lowest ERA (3.15) in the majors.
Firing Farrell won’t fix what ails the Red Sox. He didn’t hit or pitch or field. This roster was mostly lackluster this season, yet they still won the AL East. Call it overachieving. Joe Madden wouldn’t have made this group any better.
The greatest enigma is this: what exactly would make this team a World Series contender in 2018? The Red Sox are a young and highly talented team, yet they looked entirely overmatched by Houston in the ALDS.
A healthy and fully effective David Price would have certainly made the rotation more formidable this year. So would the "2016 edition" of Rick Porcello, but we may never see that version of the righty again. Again, his 2016 performance was an extreme aberration in his nine-year career.
It’s clear that the Red Sox need a reliable power hitter to replace David Ortiz, which they never had this season. Is one big bat really all that Boston needs?
Would 29-year-old free agent Mike Moustakas be enough of a difference maker? Devers looked shaky at third, displaying erratic/errant fielding and throwing. Might the Sox shift the 20-year-old to first base to make room for Moustakas? Does Boston simply need a DH, such as free agents JD Martinez, Jay Bruce or Carlos Santana? Would any of them be enough to get the Sox over the hump?
Dave Dombrowski and his staff will contemplate these questions over the coming weeks; free agency begins the morning after the World Series ends.
