Red Sox Middle Infield Remains Unsettled and Uncertain

 

The Red Sox held their Winter Weekend convention on Friday evening, where Chaim Bloom and Alex Cora addressed the media and fans. Bloom and John Henry both received a series of sustained boos during the event, and deservedly so.

Cora suggested that Enrique Hernández was the in-house favorite to play shortstop, with Christian Arroyo the likeliest option to man second base.

Though Hernández has experience at every non-catching position on the diamond, he’s primarily played center field, having logged just 618 innings at shortstop through parts of nine MLB seasons. Yet, he's played even fewer at second.

For reference, if a guy plays 150 games in a season, he'd amass 1,350 innings. So, Hernández has played less than half a season at shortstop in his entire career. I'm not saying he's incapable, but the Red Sox certainly won't be playing to his strengths by moving him out of center and not playing him at second.

At age 27, Arroyo remains a tantalizing player. He showed flashes of excellence last season, when he batted .286 over 87 games. However those 87 games marked a career high for Arroyo, who has continually struggled to stay healthy and on the field. Since he debuted in 2017, Arroyo has averaged just 43 games per season, excluding the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, when appeared in just 15 games.

Over six seasons, Arroyo has slashed .255/.307/.400/.708. Entrusting him with a starting role is quite risky.

Now that Adam Duvall has been signed to man center field, where he has started only 55 games in his career, the wisest choice would be to move Hernández to second, where he has played just 454 career innings, but has typically graded out as a solid or better defensively.

The Sox could then sign either Elvis Andrus or José Iglesias to play short. Both players have extensive experience at the position and grade out highly there. Each of them would come fairly cheap at this point in their careers and this offseason. With the absence of Xander Bogaerts and Trevor Story, the Red Sox cannot afford to take further risks up the middle this season.

Arroyo could remain in the utility position that has served him well over the years, manning second base on days when the Sox move Hernández out to center. This would give the team lots of flexibility.

However, the Sox could also sign a veteran second baseman, such as 35-year-old Josh Harrison, to pair with Arroyo. They clearly need insurance at the position, given Arroyo's history.

It's hard to tell whether Boston's plan is set in stone or if their stated position is merely a smokescreen being used as bargaining leverage with free agent shortstops, such as Andrus or Iglesias. Let's hope it's the latter.

If the Sox go with their stated plan, the lineup looks like this:

1. LF Masataka Yoshida (L)

2. SS Kiké Hernandez (R)

3. 3B Rafael Devers (L)

4. DH Justin Turner (R)

5. 1B Triston Casas (L)

6. CF Adam Duvall (R)

7. RF Alex Verdugo (L)

8. 2B Christian Arroyo (R)

9. C Reese McGuire (L)

That lineup comes with too many unknowns.

Yoshida has never played in the majors and was a defensive liability in Japan.

Hernández has never played a full season at shortstop.

Devers is a defensive liability at third.

Justin Turner is 38 years old.

Tristan Casas has played just 27 games in the majors.

Duvall has amassed just 75 innings in center, having primarily played left or right field over his eight seasons.

Verdugo has played a grand total of 151 innings in right field over his entire 6-year career.

Arroyo has averaged just 43 games per season and maxed out at 87 last year.

McGuire played in a career-high 89 games last season and has averaged just 53 games over his four-year career, excluding the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, when appeared in 19 games.

There are question marks all over the field and few reasons for confidence or high hopes this year. And I haven't even addressed the starting rotation, which is a topic for another day.

Red Sox Desperately Need Outfield Help

 

Japanese outfielder Seiya Suzuki checks all the boxes for Boston

The Red Sox outfield mix currently consists of Enrique Hernandez, Alex Verdugo, and Jackie Bradley Jr., who no longer profiles as an everyday player. Then there’s JD Martinez and rookie Jarren Duran.

Bradley will most likely be a fourth outfielder and late-inning defensive substitute this season. The 31-year-old’s batting average and on-base percentage declined every season from 2016 through 2019. His slugging percentage also peaked in 2016 and fell from there. That long decline culminated with the worst season of his career in 2021, when Bradley slashed a woeful .163/.236/.261. At this point, Bradley is an automatic out and a black hole in any lineup, other than a high school team. But he can still defend with the best of them.  

After a brilliant run at Triple-A, Duran wilted during his call-up to the majors last summer. The 25-year-old slashed .215/.241/.336/.578, with two home runs, two triples, three doubles, 40 strikeouts and four walks in 33 games (112 plate appearances) last season.

Duran was plagued by too many strikeouts and too few walks, as evidenced by his 35.7% strikeout percentage and 3.6% walk percentage. League-wide, rookies averaged a 27.3% and 7.8%, respectively, last season.

Duran discovered a previously untapped power stroke last year in the minors, but that inevitably led to a lot of swings and misses at the big league level. He’ll need to gain much better control of the strike zone to have success in the majors. The jury is still out on that. As a result, he's likely to start this season back in the minors. 

Then there’s Martinez, who’s been used sparingly in the outfield since his 2018 arrival in Boston. 

JD Martinez, Outfield Appearances with Red Sox

2018 - 57 starts

2019 - 38 games (37 starts) 

2020 - 6 starts (60-game season)

2021 - 36 games (35 starts)

As you can see, Martinez’s outfield usage has steadily declined, notwithstanding the shortened 2020 season. 

Martinez is a capable corner outfielder, but defense has never been his calling card. The Red Sox, wary of his previous lisfranc foot injury, have wisely limited his outfield assignments, lessening his chance of re-injury and keeping his steady bat in the lineup. At this point, the 34-year-old could be considered a fifth outfielder.

Hernandez was brought to Boston with the intention of becoming the team's everyday second baseman. But his extraordinary skill in center field couldn’t be resisted, as he played Gold Glove caliber defense there. Yet, while second baseman Christian Vazquez showed flashes in 2021, he was frequently injured and appeared in just 57 games. Ultimately, Vazquez's major league experience is so limited (142 games over five seasons), that he cannot realistically be relied upon. This means the Red Sox may be compelled to shift Hernandez back to second base at some point this year. Yet, that would eliminate what is, perhaps, their best outfield option. 

That leaves Verdugo as the only reliable, everyday option in Boston’s outfield. 

When looked at comprehensively, the picture suddenly becomes quite clear. All of this points to the fact that the Red Sox are very much in need of another everyday outfielder, particularly one with enough versatility to play both corner outfield spots on any given day. 

Kyle Schwarber is a worse outfielder than Martinez; he is certainly not the answer. 

Another free agent option is Nick Castellanos, who is as bad or worse than Schwarber defensively. Then there’s World Series MVP Jose Soler, who has a .246 batting average and .331 OBP after eight seasons, making him more of a problem than a solution. The remaining free agent options become even less enticing from there. The best free-agent outfielders were quickly signed before the lockout began on Dec. 2.  

Japanese outfielder Seiya Suzuki checks all the boxes for Boston, as he surely does for many other major league clubs. Suzuki has won five Gold Gloves in Japan, while displaying excellent offensive skills. Over the past four seasons, the 27-year-old Suzuki has slashed .319/.435/.592, with 121 home runs and 115 doubles. He also exhibits great plate discipline, walking in 16.1% of his plate appearances, while striking out just 16.4% of the time.   

There will be a lot of competition for Suzuki, who may prefer to play for a West Coast team with spring training facilities in Arizona. That would obviously work against the Red Sox. They may have to make him an offer he can’t refuse. 

For what it’s worth, MLB Trade Rumors projects a five-year, $55 million contract for Suzuki. It would be nice if the suddenly low-budget Red Sox were the highest bidder for a player they really need, one who checks all the boxes on their list. 

This Red Sox Team Should Be Celebrated, Not Derided

 

Yes, the Red Sox getting swept by the Yankees in three straight home games was frustrating, dejecting and disheartening, especially when this team is vying for a Wild Card berth.

Sunday night's loss put Boston in the second Wild Card spot, one game behind their arch rivals, with six games left in their season. And Toronto is just one game behind Boston.

The Sox play three games in Baltimore against the 50-106 Orioles, and then finish out the season this weekend with three games in Washington against the 64-92 Nationals.

Those two teams are awful and the Red Sox could conceivably win all six games. Yet, this Red Sox team has been terribly inconsistent for the past two months and there are no easy or guaranteed wins for this bunch. 

While the Red Sox may beat up on the dregs of the major leagues, they are just 8-21 against teams with winning records since the trade deadline. That’s not an optimistic reality for a team with playoff aspirations. 

That said, the Red Sox are sort of playing with house money at this point. They were never supposed to be in this position in the first place. Fighting for a playoff spot in the season's final week was not in the cards for this club when the season started, according to the experts.

The Las Vegas sports books and Draft Kings all pegged the Red Sox win total at 80 ½.

I was a bit more optimistic. Here's what I wrote on April 1:

"Given their potent offense, I think the Sox are capable of 85 wins this season, which should be good enough for third place in the ever-challenging AL East."

Here we are on Sept. 27 and the Red Sox are 88-66, in third place in the AL East. The Olde Towne team is already three wins ahead of my optimistic projection, with six games to go. They're way ahead of what Vegas and Draft Kings projected.

No matter how many of these final six games the Sox win, they will almost certainly claim at least two of them, which would put them at 90 wins this season. That has to be viewed as a stunning accomplishment all by itself, well beyond any reasonable expectations.

The Red Sox used 33 pitchers this season, the most in franchise history. They also placed 11 players on the Covid injury list, which may have sealed their fate by early September.

This was supposed to be a bridge year anyway. The Red Sox will be a better team next season. Tanner Houck and Garrett Whitlock be better and more experienced. They will become rotation stalwarts, replacing Garrett Richards and Martin Perez, who spent much of this season as ineffective starters before being demoted to the bullpen. The Sox will likely target a starting pitcher in a trade or in free agency, as well.

Dustin Pedroia’s $12 million salary will finally come off this books this winter, freeing up some free agent money. However, the Sox will pay the Dodgers another $16 million for David Price next season, the final year of his current contract.

This team has a solid foundation, comprised by the aforementioned Houck and Whitlock, plus Chris Sale, Rafael Devers, Hunter Renfroe, Alex Verdugo and even Bobby Dalbec. And if the Sox do the right thing, Xander Bogaerts will be in Boston through the end of his career.

Hopefully, the worst of the coronavirus will be behind us all next year, and the Red Sox will not again have their roster devastated by quarantined players.

In short, there is much to look forward to in 2022. This year was just a preview and it gave us a lot to feel hopeful about. Good days are ahead, Red Sox fans.

Expect Danny Santana in Boston Soon, As Red Sox Shakeup Roster

 

The Red Sox entered the day with 217 runs scored, tied with the White Sox for the major league lead. That’s a byproduct of Boston’s major league-best .446 slugging percentage and .772 OPS. The Red Sox .264 batting average is also third in the majors.

However, all that offensive output is driven by just four players: 

J.D. Martinez - .340/.417/.601/1.018

Xander Bogaerts - .342/.401/.605/1.006

Rafael Devers - .278/.354/.583/.937

Alex Verdugo - .284/.345/.446/.791

Those four players are masking the deficiencies in the rest of the lineup, not just those in the bottom third of the order.

Marwin Gonzalez - .218/.310/.315/.624

Hunter Renfroe - .225/.258/.392/.650

Bobby Dalbec - .211/.262/.395/.657

Enrique Hernandez - .237/.296/.421/.717

Franchy Cordero - .167/.222/.226/.448

Gonzalez offers the team tremendous defensive versatility, making up for his offensive shortcomings. Similarly, Renfroe’s cannon-like arm and deft ability to patrol right field also make him an asset. 

The Sox still believe in Bobby Dalbec, who is coming off a 2020 showcase in which he delivered 8 homers and 16 RBI in just 80 at bats. In that brief span the first baseman compiled a .359 OBP and a .600 slugging; that's why there's still so much hope. Though Gonzalez could replace Dalbec at first, that would eliminate Gonzo's greatest asset: the ability to play multiple positions each week.

Hernandez could and should lose his leadoff spot. But, like Gonzalez, his defensive versatility assures him a spot in the lineup each day.

Then there’s Cordero, who simply isn’t justifying a roster spot at this point. Though he is speedy for a big guy, Cordero is not noted for his defense. With a roster shakeup in the offing, Cordero will almost certainly be the odd man out.

Who would replace him? Danny Santana, whom the Red Sox signed to a minor-league deal in March. 

Like Gonzalez and Hernandez, Santana can play virtually any defensive position, other than catcher. Then there’s his offensive versatility; Santana is also a switch-hitter. The super-utility player suffered a serious foot infection during spring training, which delayed his season. However, he has been raking during his minor-league rehab assignment and could be called up any day now.

The rub is that Santana is not on the 40-man roster, so a spot would have to be created. In other words, someone else needs to go. Though the Sox can demote Cordero since he has minor league options, they will not remove him from the 40-man roster.

Michael Chavis could also be sent back to Triple-A, but he will not be removed from the 40-man either.

Most likely, Brandon Brennan, whom the Red Sox claimed off waivers from Seattle on May 3, will be designated for assignment, creating space for Santana.

Boston has been operating with a 14-man pitching staff this season, which they’ve needed. That’s because not one Red Sox starter is averaging as many as six innings per outing this year, which has put a lot of pressure on the bullpen. That extra man is a nice luxury for Alex Cora. 

However, something has to give and the woeful output by half the Red Sox lineup may take precedence over pitching depth, at least at this point in the season.