Red Sox Desperately Need Outfield Help

 

Japanese outfielder Seiya Suzuki checks all the boxes for Boston

The Red Sox outfield mix currently consists of Enrique Hernandez, Alex Verdugo, and Jackie Bradley Jr., who no longer profiles as an everyday player. Then there’s JD Martinez and rookie Jarren Duran.

Bradley will most likely be a fourth outfielder and late-inning defensive substitute this season. The 31-year-old’s batting average and on-base percentage declined every season from 2016 through 2019. His slugging percentage also peaked in 2016 and fell from there. That long decline culminated with the worst season of his career in 2021, when Bradley slashed a woeful .163/.236/.261. At this point, Bradley is an automatic out and a black hole in any lineup, other than a high school team. But he can still defend with the best of them.  

After a brilliant run at Triple-A, Duran wilted during his call-up to the majors last summer. The 25-year-old slashed .215/.241/.336/.578, with two home runs, two triples, three doubles, 40 strikeouts and four walks in 33 games (112 plate appearances) last season.

Duran was plagued by too many strikeouts and too few walks, as evidenced by his 35.7% strikeout percentage and 3.6% walk percentage. League-wide, rookies averaged a 27.3% and 7.8%, respectively, last season.

Duran discovered a previously untapped power stroke last year in the minors, but that inevitably led to a lot of swings and misses at the big league level. He’ll need to gain much better control of the strike zone to have success in the majors. The jury is still out on that. As a result, he's likely to start this season back in the minors. 

Then there’s Martinez, who’s been used sparingly in the outfield since his 2018 arrival in Boston. 

JD Martinez, Outfield Appearances with Red Sox

2018 - 57 starts

2019 - 38 games (37 starts) 

2020 - 6 starts (60-game season)

2021 - 36 games (35 starts)

As you can see, Martinez’s outfield usage has steadily declined, notwithstanding the shortened 2020 season. 

Martinez is a capable corner outfielder, but defense has never been his calling card. The Red Sox, wary of his previous lisfranc foot injury, have wisely limited his outfield assignments, lessening his chance of re-injury and keeping his steady bat in the lineup. At this point, the 34-year-old could be considered a fifth outfielder.

Hernandez was brought to Boston with the intention of becoming the team's everyday second baseman. But his extraordinary skill in center field couldn’t be resisted, as he played Gold Glove caliber defense there. Yet, while second baseman Christian Vazquez showed flashes in 2021, he was frequently injured and appeared in just 57 games. Ultimately, Vazquez's major league experience is so limited (142 games over five seasons), that he cannot realistically be relied upon. This means the Red Sox may be compelled to shift Hernandez back to second base at some point this year. Yet, that would eliminate what is, perhaps, their best outfield option. 

That leaves Verdugo as the only reliable, everyday option in Boston’s outfield. 

When looked at comprehensively, the picture suddenly becomes quite clear. All of this points to the fact that the Red Sox are very much in need of another everyday outfielder, particularly one with enough versatility to play both corner outfield spots on any given day. 

Kyle Schwarber is a worse outfielder than Martinez; he is certainly not the answer. 

Another free agent option is Nick Castellanos, who is as bad or worse than Schwarber defensively. Then there’s World Series MVP Jose Soler, who has a .246 batting average and .331 OBP after eight seasons, making him more of a problem than a solution. The remaining free agent options become even less enticing from there. The best free-agent outfielders were quickly signed before the lockout began on Dec. 2.  

Japanese outfielder Seiya Suzuki checks all the boxes for Boston, as he surely does for many other major league clubs. Suzuki has won five Gold Gloves in Japan, while displaying excellent offensive skills. Over the past four seasons, the 27-year-old Suzuki has slashed .319/.435/.592, with 121 home runs and 115 doubles. He also exhibits great plate discipline, walking in 16.1% of his plate appearances, while striking out just 16.4% of the time.   

There will be a lot of competition for Suzuki, who may prefer to play for a West Coast team with spring training facilities in Arizona. That would obviously work against the Red Sox. They may have to make him an offer he can’t refuse. 

For what it’s worth, MLB Trade Rumors projects a five-year, $55 million contract for Suzuki. It would be nice if the suddenly low-budget Red Sox were the highest bidder for a player they really need, one who checks all the boxes on their list. 

Assessing Jackie Bradley Jr.'s Trade and Free Agent Value

The conventional wisdom among the Boston media, and even among some fans, is that the Red Sox will be able to trade Jackie Bradley Jr. by the August 31 deadline, and that Bradley will then be able to score a hefty free agent contract in the upcoming offseason. An example from the Boston media today: "Bradley is on the way to making some serious money for himself." 

 I'm going to throw some cold water on these projections. 

First, let me say that I love Bradley as a person; he's a high-character guy, who always says and does the right thing. I don't think he's ever had a whiff of trouble while with the Red Sox. He’s the kind of person that every team wants on its roster. 

Then there's his Gold Glove-caliber defense and cannon-like arm. Defensively, there's no one else that I'd rather see patrolling center field at Fenway. 

However, there's also the issue of his offense… or lack thereof. Unfortunately, Bradley is like a black hole in the batting order. This season, JBJ is slashing just .224/.296/.265. Small sample, you say? Okay, let's take a broader view. 

Bradly is 30 years old and in his eighth major league season. Over that period, spanning more than 3,000 plate appearances, Bradley has slashed .235/.317/.407/.724. His batting average has declined in each of the last three seasons and this may be the fourth. For his efforts, he’s already collected over $30 million in career earnings. 

I don't think Bradley's offensive output will warrant any sort of decent return in a trade over the next two weeks, so don't hold your breath in anticipation. There's no top prospect coming back to Boston from another organization in a Bradley deal. 

Moreover, those are not the kind of numbers that will warrant a long-term, high-dollar contract in the offseason. Bradley will make a prorated portion of his $11 million salary this season, an amount he surely wouldn't merit on the open market. At best, he's worth about half that amount, and that doesn't take into consideration the new economic realities that MLB will be facing next year and beyond in the new COVID-19 era. 

Bradley will likely be available this offseason for something along the lines of a one-year deal for $5 million, with a second-year option. 

If the Red Sox can get a B-level minor league talent for him over the next two weeks, they should pull the trigger. And if they want Bradley back next year, he'll likely be available on team-friendly terms. 

However, the Sox may be preparing to hand the keys to promising young prospect Jarren Duran, who was the organization’s minor-league baserunner of the year in 2019. The 23-year-old could be an ideal replacement in center next season. 

After watching Duran belt two doubles and make two impressive catches in center field during a July summer-camp game at Fenway, Ron Roenicke came away very impressed by the speedy outfielder. 

“He’s an exciting player. We see his speed and the way he chases balls down in the outfield, and on the double he hit, how fast he got to second. He’s explosive, and we just hope all those tools continue to develop. He should be a really exciting player.”

One way or another, we're likely watching Jackie Bradley's final games in a Red Sox uniform. It's been fun watching him. He may be the greatest defensive center fielder in team history, Tris Speaker and Fred Lynn included. 

Why the Red Sox Will Deal Mookie Betts

The Red Sox find themselves in a quandary this offseason. After having the highest payroll in the game for two consecutive years (the latter of which resulted in a third-place finish in 2019), ownership has stated its objective to lower the club’s payroll below the $208 million Competitive Balance Tax (CBT) threshold next season.

As it stands, the team has a projected payroll of $230 million next season (according to Fan Graphs), which means that roughly $22 million will somehow need to be shaved off to meet ownership’s objective.

This has led to the notion that the Sox may seek to trade Jackie Bradley Jr. this offseason. The center fielder is projected by MLB Trade Rumors to get $11 million in arbitration, a sum that surely outstrips his actual value. However, even if the Sox trade Bradley, they would still be about $11 million above the CBT. And then the Sox would need to replace Bradley, which would require an outlay to his successor. Perhaps the Sox can find a replacement for half the cost of Bradley, but that would make it even more difficult to get below the CBT.

Also, keep in mind that the Sox still need to find a fifth starter to replace Rick Porcello, who will most likely depart as a free agent. Though the team will surely experience a savings from Porcello’s $21 million annual salary, the entire $21 million won’t be eliminated since the Sox will still need to pay another starter.

The most obvious solution would be to trade Mookie Betts, who is projected by MLB Trade Rumors to receive $27.7 million in arbitration for the 2020 season.

Though the notion of trading the former MVP is heresy across Red Sox Nation, Betts has repeatedly insisted that he is determined to find his true market value in free agency next year. Though the Red Sox have previously tried to engage Betts’ in contract negotiations, to no avail, management has stated they will try once again this winter. It may be a last stand.

Betts admitted that he rejected an offer from the Red Sox following the 2017 season, which Joel Sherman of the New York Post reported was an eight-year, $200 million proposal. Betts will likely use Bryce Harper’s 13-year, $330 million contract and Mike Trout’s 12-year, $430 million extension as the parameters for his pending deal.

Betts may be better than Harper, but he is undoubtedly inferior to Trout, who isn’t merely the best player of his generation, but one of the greatest players of all time. Even if the Red Sox get Betts to agree to a 10-year contract, for whatever amount, its reasonable to ask if this is the best allocation of precious resources. Though Betts just turned 27 in October and is in the prime of his career, contracts of such length almost never turn out to be wise investments for the teams that agree to them.

Remember, a 10-year deal would pay Betts through his age-37 season. For comparison, Dustin Pedroia is 36 and has appeared in just nine games over the past two seasons; that was unimaginable when he signed his extension.

Consider the Red Sox history with long-term deals, which, for argument’s sake, I will refer to as any deal of at least five years in length. The following contracts are listed in total dollar value:

David Price - seven years, $217 million in 2015

Chris Sale - five years, $145 million in 2019

Carl Crawford - seven years, $142 million in 2010

Dustin Pedroia - eight years, $110 million in 2013

Daisuke Matsuzaka - six years, $52 million, plus $51 million posting fee (total = $103 million) in 2006

Pablo Sandoval - five years, $95 million in 2014

Rusney Castillo - seven years, $72.5 million in 2014

Nathan Eovaldi - four years, $68 million in 2018

Does anyone think that the Red Sox, in retrospect, would sign any of those contracts today? I think the clear answer is no. The team has been burned time after time. The Manny Ramirez deal (eight years, $160 million) was the only long-term pact that delivered true value.

The reality is that almost any contract of more than five years ultimately proves to be a mistake; teams are always paying for past performance.

John Henry and Tom Werner may reason that the Red Sox, with Betts leading the way, still finished in third place last season. Given their budget ambitions, there is no basis to argue that the Red Sox will markedly improve this winter or that the Yankees will regress. The Sox may be battling for second or third place once again, which ownership may rightly argue they can also do without Betts.

If Betts leaves as a free agent next offseason, the Red Sox would only get one compensation draft pick. If they trade him now, however, they might get as many as three proven prospects -- perhaps a team's top-five prospect, another top-10 prospect and a top-20 prospect.

Betts is undoubtedly a dynamic player, who possesses true five-tool ability. He is highly popular in New England, and for good reason. Yet, it’s a virtual certainty that whichever team signs Betts to his next contract will overpay and commit far too many years.

As I've argued previously, long-term contracts are bad for baseball — at least for the teams that sign them.

As it stands, the Red Sox will have five players on their roster making at least $20 million next season, three making at least $25 million and two making at least $30 million.

David Price - $32M
Chris Sale - $30M
Mookie Betts - arb estimate ~$27M
JD Martinez - $23.75M
Xander Bogaerts - $20M

Betts' next contract will almost certainly pay him at least $30 million annually. The big question is, how many $30 million contracts can one team carry -- even a big-market club like Boston?

My thinking is that the Red Sox will have at least one too many, no matter what.

How Will the Red Sox Reduce Payroll, While Remaining Competitive?

JD Martinez will be back with the Red Sox next season, which is both good news and bad news for the payroll-heavy club.

With JD Martinez choosing not to opt out of his 2020 contract, the Red Sox payroll now sits at ~$227.23 million, at a time when ownership has publicly stated its intention to get under the $208 million luxury tax threshold.

The organization will now have to seek alternative means to reduce payroll and, subsequently, its tax penalty.

Martinez's return next year will be great for the offense and will make Alex Cora's life easier, but it will also create great challenges for new vice president of baseball operations, Chaim Bloom.

Boston has a number of highly paid (or overpaid) players on its roster, which will make filling holes and building the 2020 team more difficult.

Red Sox Highest 2020 Salaries

David Price - $32M
Chris Sale - $30M
Mookie Betts - arb estimate ~$27M
JD Martinez - $23.75M
Xander Bogaerts - $20M
Nathan Eovaldi - $17M
Dustin Pedroia - $13M (may not play in 2020)
Jackie Bradley - arb estimate ~$11M

It's overly simplistic to say, "Just trade Price!" Saying that is easy; executing it is much more difficult. Everyone in baseball is aware of Price's age (34) injury history and health status. The Sox would likely pay another club about $10 million to have Price pitch for them. The wiser choice would be to keep him and hope for the best (30 starts, 200 innings, 3.50-4.00 ERA).

The Red Sox have $79 million committed to Price, Sale and Eovaldi for next season, which is extraordinary for just three pitchers. Though Boston may have (thankfully) shed Rick Porcello’s $21 million salary, they still need to replace him and there is no one in the minors ready to step up. That will necessitate finding an affordable free agent or making a trade, which comes with its own costs.

One distinct possibility for lowering payroll would be granting Jackie Bradley his arbitration award and then trading him. Bradley was worth just two wins above replacement last season, which is certainly a number that another outfielder could provide for a lot less money. Surely, the Red Sox love JBJ's glove and arm, but he has continually been an offensive under-performer since arriving in the majors in 2013. Bradley made $8.55 million last season and it's hard to argue that he's worth any sum above that. It's worth considering that the average MLB salary last season was $4.36 million.

It’s also worth noting that the Sox don’t necessarily need to find another center fielder to replace JBJ, since both Betts and Andrew Benintendi can fill that void. Adding a corner outfielder may be easier and more likely. In 2018 (the most recent year I could find data), right fielders earned an average salary of $5.2 million, with a median income of $3 million.

I don’t believe the Red Sox will trade Betts and I wouldn't advocate it. He is a fan favorite and a perennial MVP candidate. I think the team values him too much to trade him away. They are a big-market club and the owner has deep pockets. The Red Sox don't necessarily need to be the top bidder next year; they just have to be "in the ballpark.” Betts' loyalties to the organization, to Boston and the fans may be the ultimate determinant.

Whatever the team does to lower its current $227 million payroll to its stated objective of $208 million will be fascinating to witness. Such moves will require great creativity and, perhaps, some risks.

Chaim Bloom is now facing that challenge, yet he seems like a man who is up to the task. Surely, he knows how to do more with less. The Rays' payroll last season was $89.9 million, while the Red Sox' tab was $241.7 million.

Meanwhile, the Rays won 96 games and made the playoffs, while the Sox won just 84. Clearly, spending big money doesn't guarantee wins, and Bloom proved this.