MLB Has Become Slow, Plodding and Boring. It Needs Help, Now.

 

Baseball has always had a decided advantage for pitchers. After all, the most elite hitters of all time might have gotten a hit just 35% of the time. But the advantage now enjoyed by pitchers is ruining the game.

Just 14 Major League hitters batted at least .300 this season. There are 30 teams, each with a 26-man roster. So there are at least 780 players. Again, just 14 of them were able to manage a hit at least 30% of the time.

Across the majors this season, there were 42,145 strikeouts, and just 39,481 hits. Yes, there were actually more strikeouts than hits in Major League Baseball this year. This trend has really screwed up the game.

As recently as 2008, there were just 32,884 strikeouts across the majors. So, the game now endures nearly 10,000 more strikeouts per season than it did just 13 years ago.

The league-wide batting average was just .244 this season, the lowest since 1972, after which the American League instituted the designated hitter. In response to the .242 batting average in 1967, MLB lowered the mound 10 inches to aid hitters. What will the league do this time?

For decades, Major League Baseball’s strikeout rate was roughly 15%-16%. These days, MLB hitters are striking out in roughly a quarter of all plate appearances (23.2% this year).

The level of ineptitude by major league hitters is just stunning.

The game is plagued by the Three True Outcomes: strikeouts, walks, and home runs. In fact, 36% of all plate appearances in 2021 ended with one of those three outcomes, as did 35% in 2019.

There were 5,944 home runs in the majors this year, the third-highest total of all time. The two higher totals came in 2017 (6,105) and 2019 (6,776). Do you spot a trend?

While home runs may be exciting, just as with walks and strikeouts, the ball is not put in play. In all three instances the defense merely watches, and there are a LOT of these instances these days.

Baseball has become slow, plodding and boring. And this is coming from someone who loves the game, who grew up on the game, and who played through high school.

Hitters should be compelled to stop swinging for the fences in every at-bat and simply put the ball in play. We need more runners on base, more steals, more sacrifices, more moving runners to the next base, and more runs via small ball. Simply put, we need more action!

Urging pitchers to throw 98-MPH fastballs isn’t just leading to lots of strikeouts; it's leading to a rash of Tommy John Surgeries. A whopping 105 major league and minor league players had UCL surgery in 2021. As of 2015, one-third of all MLB pitchers had undergone Tommy John surgery, according to Baseball Reference. It’s time to get back to the craft of pitching, not just hurling and flame-throwing.

There is an opportunity in the upcoming Collective Bargaining Agreement to fix some of what ails baseball.

Banning defensive shifts would be a start. Batters are no longer talented enough to avoid shifts. They can't even make contact anymore! A new rule should mandate that two infielders must be on each side of second base, and on the dirt.

It’s also time to let computers call balls and strikes; the umps all have different strike zones and get the calls wrong far too often. The technology exists. Everyone at home can see the strike zone box on TV. The calls should be accurate every time, but they're not. It’s affecting the game.

Lastly, the 12-second pitch clock, which is already in the MLB rule book (Rule 8.04), must be strictly enforced. Football has a play clock and basketball has one too, and they're enforced. It’s time for baseball to start enforcing its own rule too. 

Long, slow, plodding baseball games must be made a thing of the past. It’s time.

The Red Sox Didn't Really Come Up Short This Year; They Overachieved

 

When the season began, I wrote that the 2021 Red Sox would go only as far as their pitching would take them. The offense, I predicted, would be among the best in baseball, and I was right. The Red Sox offense ranked second in the Majors in slugging (.449), third in OPS (.777), third in batting (.261), and fifth in runs per game (5.1).

However, the imbalances of their offense finally caught up to them in the American League Championship Series. Feast or famine clearly doesn't work in the playoffs. The Red Sox scored a total of three runs in their final 27 innings of baseball this year. That’s how playoff series are lost. 

In reality, the Red Sox schizophrenic performance in the ALCS was more of the same; we had already seen an extended preview.

The Red Sox inconsistent results over the season's two months could be described as a tale of two teams, and this was clearly on display in the ALCS. It was if the Red Sox team had a split personality; Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde. They were two teams in one: laconic and explosive. You never knew which team would show up from game to game.

But all the blame cannot be laid at the feet of Boston’s offense.

Red Sox pitchers surrendered 5 earned runs in both Games 1 and 2. While that may get it done in the regular season, it rarely results in wins during the postseason, where pitching typically dominates. Yet, Sox pitchers allowed 11 earned runs (12 total) in Game 3, and 8 earned runs (9 total) in Game 4; that’s rarely a winning formula. Though Sox pitchers allowed just 4 runs in Game 5, defensive miscues resulted in a total of 9 Houston runs. Again, that rarely leads to a win. Finally, Sox pitchers surrendered 5 earned runs in the deciding Game 6, while their offense delivered nothing, zip, zilch.

Add it all up and the end result was quite predictable.

Yet, this season should be viewed as nothing less than a smashing success.

In spring training, the notion of the Red Sox being in the ALCS seemed more than improbable; it seemed impossible.

Considering that the Red Sox win-total for this season was projected at 80.5 by oddsmakers, the fact that they won 92 games is remarkable. The fact that they made the playoffs in a division with four 90-plus-wins teams (which had never happened before) is incredible. The fact that they beat the Yankees in their first one-game playoff matchup since 1978 was delightful. That they eliminated the defending American League Champion Tampa Rays was inconceivable. Yet, the fact that they were eliminated by Houston in the ALCS was predictable.

This team had flaws and they were exploited. But that doesn’t take away from the extraordinary results they managed over the course of 162 regular season games and 11 playoff games.

We shouldn’t forget that this was supposed to be a bridge year. The fact that the Sox made it to the ALCS is beyond surprising; it's stunning.

As Red Sox fans used to say for decades, Wait until next year! The team will be even better; they have a great nucleus of Bogaerts, Devers, Dalbec, and Verdugo. But they will surprise no one in 2022.

The Sox will have some interesting decisions to make in the coming weeks and months. 

We’ve likely seen the last of Martin Perez and Garrett Richards, neither of whom is likely to be renewed. Richards’ absence from the ALCS roster was telling. 

Tanner Houck will get a rotation spot next season, joining Chris Sale, Nate Eovaldi, Nick Pivetta and, perhaps, Garret Whitlock, unless the Sox are determined to make him their closer. He just seems to have much more value as a multi-inning starter. 

Will Eduardo Rodriguez be re-signed? He’s been so frustrating over the course of his career. The Red Sox have spent years waiting for him to blossom into at least a reliable No. 2 starter, yet he consistently performs more like a No. 4. How much do the Sox value him at this point?

Will the Sox retain free-agent reliever Adam Ottavino, who was probably overpaid this year at $8 million?

The Sox will certainly explore the free agent and trade markets for another starter. They need another frontline pitcher to compete in the stacked AL East. At the least, they need someone who is consistently reliable.

Will JD Martinez opt in or opt out? His decision will impact the Red Sox intentions with Kyle Schwarber, who is best-suited as a DH. Schwarber is extremely limited defensively and is otherwise a player without a position. Though the Sox surely love his bat, can they really carry two DH’s?

Can Jarren Duran hit well enough to be a reliable fourth outfielder next season?

Dustin Pedroia’s $12 million finally comes off the books this offseason. Richards made $10 million this year, including his buyout; bringing him back would cost $8.5 million. Rodriguez made $8.3 million. Ottavino made $8 million. Perez made $5 million. If Martinez opts out, the Sox will save $19.375 million.

Add it all up, and the Sox could have $61 million to play with in the free agent market.

Chaim Bloom has made a series of savvy moves in restocking the farm system, and some of the Sox top prospects could impact the roster next season, including first baseman Triston Casas, second baseman Jeter Downs, righty Connor Seabold, lefty Jay Groome, and righty Josh Winckowski.

The point is, this team has deep pockets, ample payroll space, and is stacked with prospects waiting to make the jump to the majors.

Have hope Red Sox fans. This year was just a preview. The future looks bright.

Should Ted Williams Have Won 10 MVPs?

 

Ted Williams played 19 seasons in the majors and won two MVP Awards: in 1946 and 1949. That would be a great achievement for most players, but not so much for a player who is widely regarded as "the greatest hitter who ever lived.”

The truth is, Williams didn’t have just two fantastic seasons during his illustrious career. He had a string of phenomenal seasons that didn’t result in an MVP Award. 

For example, in 1941, Williams’ third season, he led the majors with 135 runs, 37 homers, 147 walks, that legendary .406 batting average, a .553 OBP, a .735 slugging percentage, and a 1.287 OPS, the highest of his career.

Yet, Joe DiMaggio, who had a 56-game streak that season, won the award and Williams was the runner up. The Yankees won the American League Pennant, while the Red Sox finished in second place, 17 games out. 

But that wasn’t the only time that Williams’ was snubbed.

In 1942, Williams’ fourth season, he led the majors with 141 runs, 36 homers, 137 RBI, 145 walks, a .499 OBP, a .648 slugging percentage, a 1.147 OPS, and 338 total bases. He also lead the AL with a .356 batting average. 

Yet, despite winning the Triple Crown, Williams again finished in second place to another Yankee, second baseman Joe Gordon. Boston once again finished in second place, behind the Yankees. 

Williams missed the 1943, 1944 and 1945 seasons — the prime of his career — while fighting in World War II. We can only imagine what he would have done on the diamond, but it surely would have been extraordinary.  

As noted above, Williams finally won the MVP Award in 1946, upon returning from the war. That year he led the majors with 142 runs, 156 walks, a .497 OBP, and a .667 slugging percentage. He also led the AL with 343 total bases. Additionally, Williams batted .342, which, quite incredibly, led neither league. By Williams' lofty standards, there was nothing exceptional about this year. It was almost an ordinary year for Williams, who made greatness seem ordinary. 

In 1947, Williams again finished second to DiMaggio, despite leading the AL with 125 runs, 32 homers, 114 RBI, a .343 batting average, a .634 slugging percentage, and 335 total bases. He also led the majors 162 walks, a .499 OBP, and a 1.133 OPS. Williams once again won the Triple Crown (his second in three seasons), yet still didn’t win the MVP. It seems impossible, yet it happened. 

In 1948, Williams led the AL with 44 doubles, 126 walks, a .369 average, .497 OBP, .615 slugging, and a 1.112 OPS. Yet, Cleveland's Lou Boudreau won the MVP and Williams finished third, despite leading the league in six offensive categories. 

Williams won his second and final MVP Award in 1949, after leading the AL with 155 games, 39 doubles, 43 homers, a .650 slugging percentage, and 368 total bases. He also led the majors with 150 runs, 159 RBI, 162 walks, a .490 OBP, and a 1.141 OPS.

Williams was 30-years-old and in his prime, yet had won the final MVP Award of his long, extraordinary career. Despite turning in six Hall-of-Fame-caliber seasons, he had just two MVPs to speak for it all.  

In 1951, his age-32 season, Williams led the AL with a .556 slugging, a 1.019 OPS, and 295 total bases, while leading the majors with 144 walks, and a .464 OBP. Despite leading the AL or the majors in five offensive categories, Williams finished 13th in the MVP voting. The Red Sox finished the season third in the American League.

Yet, Williams still wasn’t done producing historic seasons. 

In 1954, his age-35 season, Williams led the majors with 136 walks, a .513 OBP, and a 1.148 OPS, while leading the AL with a .635 slugging percentage. Most remarkably, Williams did all of this in just 117 games. For his efforts, he finished seventh in the MVP voting. 

Notably, Williams hit .345 in 386 at-bats, yet Bobby Ávila, who had hit .341, won the batting championship. This was because a batter needed 400 at-bats to qualify for the batting title. Williams' league-leading 136 walks kept him from qualifying under the rules at the time. Using today's standards (plate appearances), he would have been the champion. The rule was changed shortly thereafter to prevent this from happening again. 

In 1955, Williams batted .356 in 320 at bats, lacking a sufficient number to win the batting title over Al Kaline, who batted .340. Williams, who also hit 28 home runs and drove in 83 runs, was named the "Comeback Player of the Year.” He finished fourth in the MVP voting.

 

Yet, that still wasn’t the end of Williams' historic output. 

In 1957, his age-38 season, Williams led the majors with a .388 batting average, a .526 OBP, a .731 slugging percentage, and a 1.257 OPS. He also bashed 38 homers, 28 doubles, drove in 87 runs, and scored 96 times. Yet, he finished second in the MVP voting, behind Mickey Mantle. The Yankees won the AL Pennant, while the Red Sox finished third. 

By this point, Williams was a living legend. He had complied nine Hall-of-Fame-caliber seasons, yet had still won only two MVP Awards. Winning just one pennant in all those years likely played a role in this, as did Williams' surly demeanor toward the press. Yet, it is impossible to look at the dominance he displayed year after year and not wonder how the writers could have snubbed him so often. It seems spiteful.  

However, Williams still had one final burst in him. Though it wasn’t necessarily an MVP-caliber season, in 1958, the year he turned 39, the ageless wonder led the AL with a .328 batting average, while also leading the majors with a .458 OBP and a 1.042 OPS. Williams also belted 26 homers, 23 doubles, and had 85 RBI. He finished seventh in the MVP voting. Again, he was 39 years old. 

It’s fair to say that Williams could have, perhaps should have, won as many as seven more MVP Awards in his career. And this doesn’t even include the three years he spent fighting in WWII during his prime, or the two years (1952, 1953) that he spent as a Marine Corps Aviator in the Korean War. Williams was still in his extended prime at that time, as these were his age-33 and age-34 seasons. As further evidence, he turned in two more MVP-caliber seasons following his return from the war ('54 & '57). Upon his return in 1953, Williams batted .407 over 37 games. In 1957 and 1958 at the ages of 39 and 40, respectively, he was the AL batting champion for the fifth and sixth time. Williams was not washed up by any stretch of the imagination.

The point is, over the course of those five seasons that were completely (or mostly) lost to war, Williams would certainly have performed well enough to justifiably earn multiple MVP Awards. Whether the writers would have voted for him is another matter and can only be left to the imagination. But it requires little imagination to recognize that Williams would have produced statistics that modern writers just couldn’t have ignored or overlooked. 

The writers of his era shouldn’t have either. It was an injustice. 

This Red Sox Team Should Be Celebrated, Not Derided

 

Yes, the Red Sox getting swept by the Yankees in three straight home games was frustrating, dejecting and disheartening, especially when this team is vying for a Wild Card berth.

Sunday night's loss put Boston in the second Wild Card spot, one game behind their arch rivals, with six games left in their season. And Toronto is just one game behind Boston.

The Sox play three games in Baltimore against the 50-106 Orioles, and then finish out the season this weekend with three games in Washington against the 64-92 Nationals.

Those two teams are awful and the Red Sox could conceivably win all six games. Yet, this Red Sox team has been terribly inconsistent for the past two months and there are no easy or guaranteed wins for this bunch. 

While the Red Sox may beat up on the dregs of the major leagues, they are just 8-21 against teams with winning records since the trade deadline. That’s not an optimistic reality for a team with playoff aspirations. 

That said, the Red Sox are sort of playing with house money at this point. They were never supposed to be in this position in the first place. Fighting for a playoff spot in the season's final week was not in the cards for this club when the season started, according to the experts.

The Las Vegas sports books and Draft Kings all pegged the Red Sox win total at 80 ½.

I was a bit more optimistic. Here's what I wrote on April 1:

"Given their potent offense, I think the Sox are capable of 85 wins this season, which should be good enough for third place in the ever-challenging AL East."

Here we are on Sept. 27 and the Red Sox are 88-66, in third place in the AL East. The Olde Towne team is already three wins ahead of my optimistic projection, with six games to go. They're way ahead of what Vegas and Draft Kings projected.

No matter how many of these final six games the Sox win, they will almost certainly claim at least two of them, which would put them at 90 wins this season. That has to be viewed as a stunning accomplishment all by itself, well beyond any reasonable expectations.

The Red Sox used 33 pitchers this season, the most in franchise history. They also placed 11 players on the Covid injury list, which may have sealed their fate by early September.

This was supposed to be a bridge year anyway. The Red Sox will be a better team next season. Tanner Houck and Garrett Whitlock be better and more experienced. They will become rotation stalwarts, replacing Garrett Richards and Martin Perez, who spent much of this season as ineffective starters before being demoted to the bullpen. The Sox will likely target a starting pitcher in a trade or in free agency, as well.

Dustin Pedroia’s $12 million salary will finally come off this books this winter, freeing up some free agent money. However, the Sox will pay the Dodgers another $16 million for David Price next season, the final year of his current contract.

This team has a solid foundation, comprised by the aforementioned Houck and Whitlock, plus Chris Sale, Rafael Devers, Hunter Renfroe, Alex Verdugo and even Bobby Dalbec. And if the Sox do the right thing, Xander Bogaerts will be in Boston through the end of his career.

Hopefully, the worst of the coronavirus will be behind us all next year, and the Red Sox will not again have their roster devastated by quarantined players.

In short, there is much to look forward to in 2022. This year was just a preview and it gave us a lot to feel hopeful about. Good days are ahead, Red Sox fans.

Expect Danny Santana in Boston Soon, As Red Sox Shakeup Roster

 

The Red Sox entered the day with 217 runs scored, tied with the White Sox for the major league lead. That’s a byproduct of Boston’s major league-best .446 slugging percentage and .772 OPS. The Red Sox .264 batting average is also third in the majors.

However, all that offensive output is driven by just four players: 

J.D. Martinez - .340/.417/.601/1.018

Xander Bogaerts - .342/.401/.605/1.006

Rafael Devers - .278/.354/.583/.937

Alex Verdugo - .284/.345/.446/.791

Those four players are masking the deficiencies in the rest of the lineup, not just those in the bottom third of the order.

Marwin Gonzalez - .218/.310/.315/.624

Hunter Renfroe - .225/.258/.392/.650

Bobby Dalbec - .211/.262/.395/.657

Enrique Hernandez - .237/.296/.421/.717

Franchy Cordero - .167/.222/.226/.448

Gonzalez offers the team tremendous defensive versatility, making up for his offensive shortcomings. Similarly, Renfroe’s cannon-like arm and deft ability to patrol right field also make him an asset. 

The Sox still believe in Bobby Dalbec, who is coming off a 2020 showcase in which he delivered 8 homers and 16 RBI in just 80 at bats. In that brief span the first baseman compiled a .359 OBP and a .600 slugging; that's why there's still so much hope. Though Gonzalez could replace Dalbec at first, that would eliminate Gonzo's greatest asset: the ability to play multiple positions each week.

Hernandez could and should lose his leadoff spot. But, like Gonzalez, his defensive versatility assures him a spot in the lineup each day.

Then there’s Cordero, who simply isn’t justifying a roster spot at this point. Though he is speedy for a big guy, Cordero is not noted for his defense. With a roster shakeup in the offing, Cordero will almost certainly be the odd man out.

Who would replace him? Danny Santana, whom the Red Sox signed to a minor-league deal in March. 

Like Gonzalez and Hernandez, Santana can play virtually any defensive position, other than catcher. Then there’s his offensive versatility; Santana is also a switch-hitter. The super-utility player suffered a serious foot infection during spring training, which delayed his season. However, he has been raking during his minor-league rehab assignment and could be called up any day now.

The rub is that Santana is not on the 40-man roster, so a spot would have to be created. In other words, someone else needs to go. Though the Sox can demote Cordero since he has minor league options, they will not remove him from the 40-man roster.

Michael Chavis could also be sent back to Triple-A, but he will not be removed from the 40-man either.

Most likely, Brandon Brennan, whom the Red Sox claimed off waivers from Seattle on May 3, will be designated for assignment, creating space for Santana.

Boston has been operating with a 14-man pitching staff this season, which they’ve needed. That’s because not one Red Sox starter is averaging as many as six innings per outing this year, which has put a lot of pressure on the bullpen. That extra man is a nice luxury for Alex Cora. 

However, something has to give and the woeful output by half the Red Sox lineup may take precedence over pitching depth, at least at this point in the season. 

Xander Bogaerts vs Nomar Garciaparra: Who Is/Was Better?

 

This week, Xander Bogaerts became the 30th player in Red Sox history to play 1,000 games with the club. And he’s just the 10th Sox player to do it before turning 29 years old. He would have reached the milestone last year, if not for the pandemic-shortened season.  

I’m a big Bogaerts’ fan; I think we all are. Bogey is on the short list of greatest shortstops in Red Sox history, a group that also includes Hall of Famer Joe Cronin, Johnny Pesky, Rico Petrocelli and, of course, Nomar Garciaparra.  

Cronin retired as a player in 1945, and then went on to a 15-year managerial career. Pesky retied in 1952. Petrocelli exited the game in 1976. Most current fans never saw any of them play. Nomar played for the Red Sox as recently as 2004. 

There’s a recency bias that favors both Bogaerts and Garciaparra, but the numbers do too. 

Since the two players appeared in nearly the same number of games and had essentially the same number of at-bats with the Red Sox, this is a great time to assess and compare the two. Who is/was better?

Nomar (age 30) - 966 games, 3968 AB, 709 R, 1281 H, 279 2B, 50 3B, 178 HR, 690 RBI, 279 BB, 406 K, 84 SB, .323/.370/.553/.923

Xander (age 28) - 1000 games, 3866 AB, 597 R, 1125 H, 246 2B, 14 3B, 124 HR, 549 RBI, 350 BB, 776 K, 63 SB, .291/.352/.458/.810 

As you can see, Nomar appeared in fewer games and had fewer at-bats than Xander, yet has a significant edge in every single category, except walks. Yet, he still had a better on-base percentage. 

When it comes to offense, Nomar was clearly the superior player; he was a generational talent who would have been elected to the Hall of Fame had his body not broken down at such an early age. Garciaparra was plagued by a genetic condition (exertional compartment syndrome) that affected his connective tissues. HIs career was over by age 35, and he never played in more than 122 games over his final six seasons. In fact, he appeared in just 55 and 65 games, respectively, over his last two seasons. 

Garciaparra was Rookie of the Year, a six-time All Star, won two batting titles and a Silver Slugger. He had five top-ten MVP finishes, including runner up in ’98. 

Bogaerts is a two-time All Star, has won three Silver Sluggers, and is a two time World Series champion. He's had one top-five MVP finish. 

Neither player was/is particularly noted for their defense. For example, neither ever won a Gold Glove Award. 

Over 11 seasons, Garciaparra posted a .968 fielding percentage at shortstop. He had 1606 putouts in 4710 chances and made 149 errors.

Over nine seasons, Bogaerts has accumulated a .977 fielding percentage. He has 1202 putouts in 3573 chances and has made 82 errors. 

Slight advantage, Bogaerts.

Bogaerts is just 28 and, barring injury, has roughly another decade to build his case for Hall of Fame consideration. He is certainly on that trajectory at present. 

But when it comes to who was better after roughly the same number of games and at-bats, the answer, undoubtedly, is Garciaparra. 

Though he was often overshadowed by his contemporaries, Alex Rodriguez (who was PED-enhanced) and Derek Jeter (who won five World Series playing for the Yankees, arguably the most famous and illustrious sports franchise in the world), Garciaparra was better than Jeter and was nearly the equal of the freakish Rodriguez.  

Garciaparra’s career, despite its greatness, will always be a matter of what might have been. He averaged just 84 games a season over his final six years.

Nine years into his career, Bogaerts is still in his prime and he is flourishing. He continues to write his story each day, and what a story it is. 

Enjoy every moment of it, Red Sox fans. As Nomar knows all too well, you never know when, or how quickly, it will come to an end. 

How Long Will Red Sox Continue to Tolerate Rafael Devers' Defensive Shortcomings?

 

That "E" behind Rafael Devers has become very symbolic.

The first two games of the 2021 season have only added to the ongoing concerns about Rafael Devers' ability to adequately play third base. For the past couple of years, his continuing miscues have led many to suggest that he needs to be shifted across the diamond to first base. 

In 2017, his rookie season, Devers committed the fourth-most errors (14) among MLB third baseman, despite playing in just 56 games. In 2018, Devers led the major leagues with 24 errors. In 2019, he led all major league third basemen with 22 errors. Last season, he once again led the majors with 14 errors in just 57 games. Additionally, Devers had the lowest fielding percentage among major league third basemen in two of the past three seasons.

A really troubling pattern has been established, and it can no longer be ignored. 

The idea has been floated, in the media at least, of moving Devers to first base and shifting Bobby Dalbec, a natural third baseman, to the hot corner. However, Devers has never played first and he would likely bring his defensive struggles with him across the diamond.  

And the designated hitter spot is blocked by JD Martinez, who is under contract through the 2022 season. 

The Red Sox may be running out of patience with Devers. And he could face some strong internal pressure from within the organization.

Tristan Casas is ranked as to the top prospect in Boston's farm system and No. 44 overall by MLB.com. The 21-year-old has played both first and third base in the minors, as has current first baseman Dalbec. Last year, I suggested that the Sox could shift Dalbec to third when Casas is brought to the majors, making Devers a trade chip.

While it might seem outlandish to suggest trading Devers, a player who is just 24 and isn’t eligible for free agency until after the 2023 season, he is a stone-cold defensive liability and his four-year track record is not an aberration. His youth and affordability would would make him an attractive trade chip to many clubs, who might be able to use him as a DH. As always, the Red Sox need starting pitching. 

However, Casas has just 433 minor league at-bats, meaning he is not yet ready for the majors. He will open this season with the High-A Greenville Drive, likely putting him at least a year or year-and-a-half from the majors. 

The problem is that the Sox may not be able to wait that long for Devers. His defensive shortcomings are the kind of liability that results in losses. One way or another, this cannot continue indefinitely. 

If Devers can revert to his 2019 offensive form, when he batted .311, slugged .555 and led the majors with 359 total bases, it could make up for his defensive miscues. In essence, he may be able to win more games with his bat than he’ll lose with his glove. But, after his reversion in 2020, that possibility remains nothing more than hope right now.  

Red Sox 2021 Preview: This Team Will Go As Far As the Rotation Takes Them

It's Opening Day! 

But what are we to make of the 2021 Red Sox? Well, the offense should be robust, for sure. But the starting pitching? That's what it will all come down to for this team, as with most others.

Though it may be hard to believe, the Red Sox actually led the American League with a .265 batting average last season. They also ranked third in on-base percentage (.330), slugging percentage (.445), and OPS (.776). And the Sox were also fifth in runs per game (4.87).

Yet, they did all of this in the absence of Mookie Betts and, largely, Andrew Benintendi.

Furthermore, J.D. Martinez looked like a high school hitter all season and Rafael Devers also regressed. Additionally, the Sox got essentially zero production from second base.

The takeaway is that offense was not the problem for Boston last season, and it will not be this season either. Martinez and Devers will revert to their norms, Kiki Hernandez will be an upgrade at second, Bobby Dalbec will have a full season to launch homers, and Alex Verdugo looks like an emerging All Star. Even Hunter Renfroe looks tailor-made for Fenway.

The initial evidence is already solid.

The Red Sox offense was very potent during spring training. Amongst all teams in both Grapefruit League and Cactus League action, Boston finished first in RBI (151), second in batting (.270), second in slugging (.487), second in OPS (.831), second in homers (45) and second in runs (159).

This team is built to score, and it appears they will need to do so prodigiously in order to compete this season. That’s because the starting pitching may, once again, be their Achilles heel.

Amongst all clubs, Boston's starters finished spring training 15th in opponents' batting average (.258), 16th in ERA (4.94), 17th in strikeouts (84), 19th in WHIP (1.38) and fourth-worst in walks (38).

Yes, it was only spring training, but if we're going to be excited and optimistic about the offense, then we need to be equally troubled by the starting pitching.

Those concerns only grew when it was announced that No. 1 starter Eduardo Rodriguez was suffering from a "dead arm" and was scratched from his Opening Day start at Fenway. He will start the season on the Injured List.

E-Rod looked fantastic this spring (13.2 IP, 11 hits, 15 Ks, 2 BB, 2.63 ERA), showing no ill-effects from missing the 2020 season. Perhaps this is just a bump in the road; we can only hope. But it's certainly worrisome.

The extended time off may have simply left Rodriguez's arm/shoulder weak and deconditioned, a matter that can be remedied by the training staff and a highly-structured throwing program. Again, we can only hope.

In his stead, Nathan Eovaldi, who has a 6.60 ERA this spring, will make his second-straight Opening Day start.

The starting pitching needs to be markedly better this season in order for the Sox to be competitive, or even worth watching.

Last season, Boston’s starting rotation had a 5.34 ERA, which was 13th out of the 15 teams in the AL. Red Sox pitchers allowed 5.85 runs per game, the most for the franchise since 1932. The Sox’ pitching was so bad that, despite their potent offense, they still had the fifth-worst run differential (-59) in the majors.

That's because the Red Sox used 16 different pitchers to start games in a mere 60-game season. For perspective, the 2004 Red Sox used eight starters over 162 games. The 2007 champs used nine starters, while the ’13 and ’18 champs each used 11.

The 2020 Red Sox employed a bunch of starters we'd never heard of. The list included guys like Ryan Weber, Matt Hall, Zack Godley, Andrew Triggs and Chris Mazza, as well as relievers Mike Kickham, Josh Osich, Robinson Leyer and Austin Brice. Old friends Ryan Brasier and Colten Brewer even made starts last year.

When the season ended, the club began jettisoning all of that flotsam and jetsam. The Sox also bid farewell to Dylan Covey, Robinson Leyer, Jeffrey Springs and Kyle Hart.

If you weren’t keeping track, 12 of the 15 pitchers listed above are either no longer with the organization or are off the 40-man roster. In essence, the majority of the pitching staff was remade in a single offseason. Thank goodness.

The rotation should, in theory, be much improved this season, highlighted by the return of Rodriguez, who suffered a COVID-related heart infection that derailed his 2020 season.

The most significant free agent addition to the staff is righty Garrett Richards, who is expected to be a big improvement from the host of Triple-A pitchers that made starts for Boston last year. The 32-year-old has amassed a 3.62 ERA and 1.26 WHIP over 10 seasons. Those are appealing numbers, and from 2014-2015 Richards looked like a budding ace with the Angels, until injuries derailed his career.

Richards was limited to six just starts apiece in 2016 and 2017, 16 starts in 2018, and a mere three starts in 2019, when he underwent Tommy John surgery. In the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, the righty made 10 starts for San Diego. Consequently, Richards hasn’t pitched more than 76 ⅓ innings in any season over the past five years. Overall, he's thrown just 198 2/3 total innings since the start of 2016.

It should worry Red Sox’ fans that over the past decade Richards has made at least 30 starts just once, and at least 25 starts just twice. The optimist will say he's well-rested. In reality, he’ll be quite limited this season. It’s reasonable to wonder if he can he even reach 150 innings; I’m dubious. If he can stay healthy, Richards could be a nice pickup for Boston. But there are just so many ifs.

Righty Nick Pivetta, who made two starts for Boston late last season, has always been intriguing because of his power arm and pure stuff. The Red Sox are hoping they can finally harness it. However, it can’t be ignored that Pivetta has a 5.40 ERA over more than 400 innings in the majors. The whole sales pitch with this guy is "potential."

The Sox will rely heavily on Eovaldi, who has made at least 30 starts just once in nine seasons. The righty has been plagued by injuries throughout his career.

Then there's Martín Pérez, who has a 4.70 ERA and 1.48 WHIP after nine seasons, in which he's made at least 30 starts just twice. The lefty is nothing more than a fifth starter.

There are questions everywhere. Who can be relied on to make at least 30 starts and throw at least 150 innings for Boston?

Tanner Houck, who has made just three major league starts, is the primary Triple-A depth option. He will open the season with the big league club and start the second game of the season.

Finally, Chris Sale will return some time this summer, which will provide the rotation with an enormous boost. He may not be back to full strength right away, but even at 80%, Sale is still better than most MLB pitchers.

Rule-5 draft pickup Garrett Whitlock could be a nice surprise. The righty was terrific in Grapefruit League action, throwing nine innings and allowing one run on eight hits and no walks. Oh, and he fanned 12 along the way. It shouldn't come as much of a surprise; Whitlock has a 12-8 record and a 2.41 ERA in 42 Minor League appearances (38 starts). Whitlock was particularly impressive in 2018, notching a 1.86 ERA over 23 appearances for three affiliates. That's why the Sox snatched him from the Yankees.

Whitlock will start the season in the bullpen, but he provides a nice depth option for the rotation. The question is whether he can be stretched out to start, if needed, and if the Sox are even willing to lean on a rookie pitcher who is just returning from Tommy John surgery.

The Sox desperately need to take a big leap forward from the misery and disappointment of last season. The 2020 Red Sox ended with a .400 winning percentage, which was the fourth worst in baseball.

Despite their abysmal season, the Sox had the third-highest payroll in baseball last year. No, this ownership group has never been stingy.

Though some fans may think the Red Sox have been cheap this offseason or, at the least, are disappointed that the team didn't sign any high-dollar free agents, it's worth noting that Boston's $205 million payroll is the second-highest in baseball after the Dodgers ($256 million).

The reality is that the Sox spent nearly $45 million on half a dozen free agents and a couple of trade acquisitions this winter. Instead of signing one or two really expensive free agents, Chaim Bloom decided to strategically allocate available dollars to multiple players, many of whom are quite versatile and offer flexibility in the field or the bullpen.

Sale, who will make $30 million this season, is the club's most expensive player, by far. After that, Xander Bogaerts represents a relative bargain at $20 million. And JD Martinez will make $19.375 million this year, which will also be a bargain if he reverts to his usual highly-productive self.

There is some dead weight on the roster this year, much of which will come off the books at season's end.

The Sox will pay newly retired Dustin Pedroia $12 million this season and they will pay the Royals $2.8 million toward Andrew Benintendi's 2021 salary. Additionally, the Sox will pay the Dodgers $16 million for David Price this season and next.

Add it all up and the Sox will be paying nearly $31 million this year for those three players to suit up for other clubs or not play at all.

We can bemoan guaranteed contracts, but that's the nature of the sport. This isn't the NFL.

After the 2022 season concludes, the Red Sox will have a lot of money to spend in free agency, and many of their top prospects should be graduating onto the big league roster. Good days lie ahead for Boston.

What’s particularly striking is just how much change this roster has undergone in only a couple of years. Just nine players remain from the Red Sox 2018 World Series roster, which was unimaginable even after the 2019 season. Those nine are: Matt Barnes, Ryan Brasier, Nathan Eovaldi, Eduardo Rodriguez, Chris Sale, Christian Vazquez, Xander Bogaerts, Rafeal Devers and JD Martinez.

As for this season, many prognosticators seem to think that the Sox will be a .500 ball club. Vegas puts Boston's odds of winning the World Series at 50/1. Obviously, this team's hopes are almost entirely hinged to a starting rotation that has more questions than answers. They will go as far as the starting five (or six or seven or whatever) will take them.

Given their potent offense, I think the Sox are capable of 85 wins this season, which should be good enough for third place in the ever-challenging AL East.

Let's check back in October and see how it all panned out.

In the meantime, play ball!