Expect Red Sox Outfield to Look Different in 2024

 

The Red Sox defensive struggles were on display for the baseball world to see this season. It was unmistakable. The team was third-worst in the majors in Defensive Efficiency Ratio. While the Red Sox have inferior defenders at both first base (Triston Casas) and third base (Rafael Devers), they also have inferior defenders in the outfield: Masa Yoshida and Jarren Duran. 

The latter rated -5 in defensive runs saved (DRS) in center and he was an even 0 in outs above average (OAA). Yoshida was worth just 1.4 bWAR and only 0.6 fWAR, mostly due to his poor defense and base-running. Yoshida rated -8 in outs above average (OAA), which was fifth-worst among left fielders — and that’s playing half his games in Fenway Park, which is the smallest left field in the majors. While Yoshida started hot offensively, he cooled considerably as the season progressed and ended up with a rather pedestrian .289/.338/.445/.783 slash line. The guy's greatest skills are bat-to-ball and on base, yet he didn’t bat .300 or reach a .350 OBP. He didn’t slug .500 and his OPS was below .800. None of that warrants a $90M deal.

The only reliable defender in the outfield is Alex Verdugo, who is entering his final season of arbitration eligibility and could be a trade candidate. MLB Trade Rumors projects that Verdugo will make $9.2M in 2024. While Verdugo played strong defense and is a Gold Glove candidate, his offense was around league average (.264/.324/.421/.745).  

As if defensive shortcomings weren’t problematic enough for the Red Sox outfield, none of the three above outfielders even reached 20 homers this season. Yoshida (15 HR), Verdugo (13 HR) and Duran (8 HR) simply aren't power hitters. Poor defense and little-to-no power is not a workable scenario going forward. 

Running the current group back into the outfield next season doesn’t seem wise or realistic. That’s why Verdugo is a trade candidate, as may be Duran, whose value has never been higher. Duran enjoyed a breakout season at the plate, slashing .295/.346/.482, with 8 homers, 40 RBI, 34 doubles, and a team-leading 24 stolen bases in 102 games. He entered the 2023 campaign with a career OPS+ of 69 (31 points below average) but leaped to a 120 mark (20 points above average) this season. The Sox may view selling high as a wise move right now.

Yoshida is on a long-term deal and likely isn’t going anywhere. He’ll have to DH quite a bit going forward, which isn’t what the club was projecting. But Verdugo and Duran could be headed elsewhere. Wilyer Abreu and Ceddanne Rafaela both saw big league action this season and both offer lots of flexibility because they are controllable and cheap, allowing money to be deployed elsewhere while building the roster. Further, Roman Anthony is viewed as a Top 100 talent and reached Double-A this year. It’s conceivable that he might debut in Boston by late next season.

Expect changes in the Red Sox outfield mix this offseason; they’re much needed. 

Get Ready: The American and National Leagues are Going Away

 

MLB’s new schedule will feature less divisional play and more inter-league play, with every team facing every other club each season. Starting this year, clubs will play only 13 games against each of their division rivals, instead of the traditional 19. So, teams will play 24 fewer games against their division rivals and 24 more against teams from the opposing league.

I could see this coming long ago. I’ve been saying for years that MLB will ultimately do away with the two leagues; they are a vestige of a long ago past.

The American league claimed Major League status in the 1901 season, 25 years after the formation of the National League. That’s why they are respectively known as the "Junior Circuit" and the "Senior Circuit.”

The two leagues operated as entirely separate entities, each believing they were superior to the other. To determine who was truly better, the leagues decided to have their two best teams square up against each other in the World Series, which was first played in 1903.

For the first 96 years, the two leagues faced each other only in exhibition games, spring training, the All-Star Game and the World Series. 

However, beginning in 1997, inter-league games have been played during each season. That first year, there were 214 inter-league games, followed by 224 in ’98; 251 in ’99 and 2000; 252 from 2000-’12; and 300 games since 2013 (with the exception of 298 in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season). The wall dividing the two leagues was starting to fall.

For nearly a century, the two leagues operated as independent entities, each with its own president. However, following the 1999 season, the American and National Leagues were merged with Major League Baseball, and the leagues ceased to exist as separate business entities. The role of the league president was eliminated. Major League Baseball is now presided over by a single commissioner. More bricks in the wall had fallen.

Through 1999, there were separate National and American League umpires. However, the 2000 collective bargaining agreement between Major League Baseball and the Major League Baseball Umpires Association resulted in all umpires being placed on one roster and working in games in both leagues. The wall between the leagues was now fully crumbling.

Though the AL unilaterally adopted the Designated Hitter in 1973, the NL finally joined them last season. The only remaining difference between the two leagues is now finally gone. 

There is no longer any wall, any difference, between the two leagues. At last, they are more like the NFL’s AFC and NFC, the NBA’s Eastern and Western Conferences, and the NHL’s Eastern and Western Conferences.

The next step will be to eliminate the two leagues altogether and move to a full geographical realignment. Under such a plan, teams will play more games against clubs in their regions, regardless of league.

Commissioner Rob Manfred’s has long-desired adding two teams and implementing a geographic realignment of a 32-team MLB that will eliminate the last vestiges of the American and National Leagues you grew up with. 

The cities most likely to get an expansion team include Portland, Oregon, Nashville, Tennessee, and Charlotte, North Carolina. There are only seven teams in the West, so it’s hard to envision MLB adding two more in the East. For the sake of discussion, let’s assume that the cities are Portland and Nashville, which already has a name (The Stars), an investment group, a board, and advisors.

We might expect to see eight, four-team divisions under such a realignment. It could look something like this:

Northeast - Red Sox, Yankees, Mets, Blue Jays

Mid-Atlantic - Phillies, Pirates, Nationals, Orioles

Southeast - Stars, Braves, Rays, Marlins

Mid-West - Cubs, White Sox, Brewers, Tigers

Central - Royals, Cardinals, Reds, Guardians

West - Rockies, Rangers, Astros, Twins

Pacific North - Mariners, Portland, Giants, A’s

Pacific South - Dodgers, Angels, Padres, Diamondbacks

The division names are plainly generic. Of course, other names may or will be chosen. And the division makeup may also be different. This is merely a thought experiment. At present, MLB only has 10 teams west of the Mississippi River, which would go to 11 with the addition of a team in Portland. Still, there is an abundance of teams in the Northeast and Upper Midwest, which will make realignment vexing and, perhaps, somewhat odd.

The challenge will be maintaining longterm rivalries, playing up natural regional rivalries (i.e., Cubs and White Sox, Reds and Guardians, etc.) and cutting down on travel. For example, it makes no sense for the Red Sox and Yankees to play the Mariners and A’s more often than the Mets and Phillies, just because the former two clubs are in the American League.

Older fans may howl with discontent and even disgust, but this is no longer your father’s game. We’re in the 21st Century and MLB knows is must change with the times. The two leagues are no longer separate entities; there's no further use in pretending that they are.

A change is coming. Get used to it.

Red Sox Pitching Staff Doesn't Inspire Confidence

 

The Red Sox lost Nate Eovaldi, Rich Hill and Michael Wacha this offseason. Consequently, they needed a significant rotation overhaul and upgrade this offseason, but failed to do it. The Sox don’t currently look like a team with legitimate postseason aspirations this year.

The Red Sox rotation will almost certainly run into an innings problem this season. Chris Sale and James Paxton have hardly pitched in the past three years and will likely struggle to handle a starter’s workload for a full season. 

Sale has appeared in just 11 games, tossing 48 1/3 total innings, over the past three seasons. Fellow lefty Paxton has only logged a total of 21 2/3 innings over the past three seasons. The optimistic view is that both pitchers have low-mileage arms. Yet, if the Sox can get about 20-25 starts out of each of them, that would have to be viewed as a success. 

Corey Kluber will be 37 in April and has faced numerous injuries in recent years that have really limited his availability. Just look at his innings totals:

2019 - 35.2

2020 - 1.0

2021 - 80

2022 - 164

Total = 280.2 over four seasons

The team is going to need more arms and innings.

Yet, Brayan Bello threw just 57.1 innings in the bigs last season, and his professional high was 117.2 innings in A-ball back in 2019. Who knows what to expect from him, but that may be his ceiling. Bello also went 2-8, with a 4.71 ERA and 1.78 WHIP, though he did get much better over his final starts.  

Nick Pivetta is the club’s workhorse, having thrown 155 and 179.2 innings over the past two years. However, he posted an ERA above 4.50 in each of them and has a career 5.02 ERA. That’s fifth-starter material.  

What will the Sox do with Garrett Whitlock? The club says they plan to use him as a starter. However, in nine career starts, Whitlock has a 4.15 ERA. Yet, in 68 games as a reliever, he has 2.24 ERA. His presence in the bullpen would greatly strengthen the relief core, especially now that they’ll be without both Matt Barnes and Josh Taylor. Both of those subtractions may be detrimental this season.

Last season, the Red Sox bullpen posted the fifth-worst ERA in baseball (4.59) and was 39-for-67 (58.2%) in save opportunities. Whitlock would help, a lot.

The only other surefire relievers returning from last season are John Schreiber and Tanner Houck, who had back surgery last year. Houck was 8-for-9 in save opportunities in 2022.

This offseason, the Sox added free agent relievers Kenley Jansen (two years, $32M), Joely Rodríguez (1 year, $2 million) and Chris Martin (2 years, $17.5 million). They also traded Josh Taylor, DFA’d Darwinzon Hernandez and lost Matt Strahm to free agency.

Chaim Bloom tells us that the farm system will continually feed this team and return it to a World Series competitor. Take a look a what these young pitchers did last year. It’s not encouraging. 

Kutter Crawford - 12 starts/21 games, 3-6, 5.47 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 77.1 IN, 77 K

Josh Winckowski - 14 starts/15 games, 5-7, 5.89 ERA, 1.59 WHIP, 70.1 IN, 44 K

All these other pitchers on the 40-man roster have little or no major league experience.  

Franklin German

Zack Kelly 

Bryan Mata

Wyatt Mills

Chris Murphy

Kaleb Ort 

Brandon Walter

Meanwhile, the Sox lost a combination of reliability in Hill, and competency in Wacha and Eovaldi. 

Rich Hill - 26 starts, 8-7, 4.27 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 124.1 IN, 109 K

Michael Wacha - 23 starts, 11-2, 3.32 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 127.1 IN, 104 K

Nathan Eovaldi - 19 starts, 5-3, 4.05 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 104.1 IN, 99 K

Taking a big picture view, it’s hard to be optimistic about the starting rotation, or the depth guys that the Sox will surely rely on this season.

Chaim Bloom is the Architect of the Red Sox Mismanagement

 

The Red Sox are currently projected to have about $216M worth of luxury-tax obligations on their ledger, which leaves about $17M worth of spending room before they’d be at risk of paying the tax for a second consecutive season. They’ll probably need to use some of that for a middle-infielder. 

Boston was one of six teams to exceed the CBT threshold in 2022, and the only one that didn't make the playoffs. The Red Sox ended the season $1.2M over CBT mark, in what can only be described as total mismanagement. 

Entering Aug. 2, the day of the 2022 MLB trade deadline, the Red Sox had a 53-52 record, putting them just over the .500 threshold. They were 17 games behind the American League East-leading New York Yankees. The Sox had proven themselves to be a thoroughly mediocre ball club, not a World Series contender, most of the season. Any reasonable person would have concluded that they should be sellers (at least enough to fall below the CBT threshold), not buyers. 

By simply trading either Nathan Eovaldi or J.D. Martinez at the deadline, Chaim Bloom would put the Red Sox below the CBT threshold, avoided any subsequent penalties, and improved their lot for this season. Though the club later issued qualifying offers to both Xander Bogaerts and Eovaldi, as luxury tax payers they will be penalized in the upcoming draft.  

Had the Red Sox gotten under the luxury tax threshold at the deadline, they would have received picks 70 and 71 in the 2023 Draft for the departed Bogaerts and Eovaldi. Instead they will receive picks 133 and 134. They also missed out on roughly $1 million in additional bonus pool money, based on 2022 slot values.

Not only has Bloom continually failed to accurately read the free agent market, which has cost the team repeatedly, he failed to accurately gage and assess his team’s playoff chances, were were essentially nil.

Yes, the installation of a third wild-card spot gave Boston some modicum of hope, but it was the squint-your-eyes variety. The Sox at the time trailed Tampa, Cleveland and Baltimore. That would have amounted to a lot of leap-frogging for a team that could only be described as inconsistent, at best. Their Pythagorean record entering Aug. 2 (their projected record based on runs scored and runs allowed) ranked as the 11th best in the AL. 

Sure enough, that proved to be predictive: the Red Sox went 26-32 after the deadline, finishing eight games behind the Rays.

Yet, Bloom failed to trade some key pending free agents, which would have improved Boston’s lot this season. However, he traded the popular Christian Vazquez, and added Tommy Pham and Eric Hosmer, both of whom are no longer with the team. Neither player added any value or improved the roster in any meaningful way upon arrival. 

The acquisition of Reese McGuire for Jake Diekman was Bloom's only sound move, but it didn’t affect the CBT threshold. That’s what really matters at the moment. 

Everyone in baseball knew about Trevor Story’s elbow issues last offseason. The Sox gambled and lost. Now they need not one but two middle infielders, and that’s where their luxury tax problem is coming home to roost. If Boston goes over the CBT a second season in a row, their penalties will only increase next year, when they might really like to play in the deep end of the free agent pool. 

The possibility of going over the CBT again, and again landing in last place is a disaster that should never occur. But that’s where the Red Sox find themselves at the moment. And it’s all the result of the ‘leadership’ of the incompetent Bloom. He needs to go. 

Red Sox Middle Infield Remains Unsettled and Uncertain

 

The Red Sox held their Winter Weekend convention on Friday evening, where Chaim Bloom and Alex Cora addressed the media and fans. Bloom and John Henry both received a series of sustained boos during the event, and deservedly so.

Cora suggested that Enrique Hernández was the in-house favorite to play shortstop, with Christian Arroyo the likeliest option to man second base.

Though Hernández has experience at every non-catching position on the diamond, he’s primarily played center field, having logged just 618 innings at shortstop through parts of nine MLB seasons. Yet, he's played even fewer at second.

For reference, if a guy plays 150 games in a season, he'd amass 1,350 innings. So, Hernández has played less than half a season at shortstop in his entire career. I'm not saying he's incapable, but the Red Sox certainly won't be playing to his strengths by moving him out of center and not playing him at second.

At age 27, Arroyo remains a tantalizing player. He showed flashes of excellence last season, when he batted .286 over 87 games. However those 87 games marked a career high for Arroyo, who has continually struggled to stay healthy and on the field. Since he debuted in 2017, Arroyo has averaged just 43 games per season, excluding the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, when appeared in just 15 games.

Over six seasons, Arroyo has slashed .255/.307/.400/.708. Entrusting him with a starting role is quite risky.

Now that Adam Duvall has been signed to man center field, where he has started only 55 games in his career, the wisest choice would be to move Hernández to second, where he has played just 454 career innings, but has typically graded out as a solid or better defensively.

The Sox could then sign either Elvis Andrus or José Iglesias to play short. Both players have extensive experience at the position and grade out highly there. Each of them would come fairly cheap at this point in their careers and this offseason. With the absence of Xander Bogaerts and Trevor Story, the Red Sox cannot afford to take further risks up the middle this season.

Arroyo could remain in the utility position that has served him well over the years, manning second base on days when the Sox move Hernández out to center. This would give the team lots of flexibility.

However, the Sox could also sign a veteran second baseman, such as 35-year-old Josh Harrison, to pair with Arroyo. They clearly need insurance at the position, given Arroyo's history.

It's hard to tell whether Boston's plan is set in stone or if their stated position is merely a smokescreen being used as bargaining leverage with free agent shortstops, such as Andrus or Iglesias. Let's hope it's the latter.

If the Sox go with their stated plan, the lineup looks like this:

1. LF Masataka Yoshida (L)

2. SS Kiké Hernandez (R)

3. 3B Rafael Devers (L)

4. DH Justin Turner (R)

5. 1B Triston Casas (L)

6. CF Adam Duvall (R)

7. RF Alex Verdugo (L)

8. 2B Christian Arroyo (R)

9. C Reese McGuire (L)

That lineup comes with too many unknowns.

Yoshida has never played in the majors and was a defensive liability in Japan.

Hernández has never played a full season at shortstop.

Devers is a defensive liability at third.

Justin Turner is 38 years old.

Tristan Casas has played just 27 games in the majors.

Duvall has amassed just 75 innings in center, having primarily played left or right field over his eight seasons.

Verdugo has played a grand total of 151 innings in right field over his entire 6-year career.

Arroyo has averaged just 43 games per season and maxed out at 87 last year.

McGuire played in a career-high 89 games last season and has averaged just 53 games over his four-year career, excluding the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, when appeared in 19 games.

There are question marks all over the field and few reasons for confidence or high hopes this year. And I haven't even addressed the starting rotation, which is a topic for another day.

Bogaerts' Contract a Bridge too Far for Boston

 

Xander Bogaerts has agreed to a whopping 11-year, $280M contract with the Padres.

Though there were reports that Red Sox ownership had gotten involved in negotiations in recent days, a contract of that length and cost was a bridge too far for Boston.

Ownership appeared to recognize that they have a major PR problem. The fans weren’t happy with the Bogaerts' negotiations all season. The belated attempt to sign him was meant to address that.

However, it's hard to justify giving an 11-year contract to a 30-year-old shortstop, especially one who had significant defensive liabilities throughout his 20s.

Bogaerts entered the 2022 season with negative-55 defensive runs saved at shortstop from 2013-21. Yet, he had 4 defensive runs saved this season, which was 11th among MLB shortstops. It was the first time in his career he produced a positive number in that category.

Bogaerts is not going to develop more range and quickness in his 30s. The Red Sox knew full well that he would soon need to be moved off the position, to third or second base. If Boston has a genuine motivation to re-sign Rafael Devers (which it now seems to, more than ever), Bogaerts would have been indefinitely blocked at third. And with Trevor Story earning from $20M-$25M per season for the next five and potentially six years, Bogaerts was blocked indefinitely at second.

No one in their right mind would pay Bogaerts an average of $25M annually to DH when he's reached 30 home runs just once in 10 seasons.

Baseball has entered silly season. Many of the contracts being handed out are reckless to the point of absurd. The Padres had made $400M offers to both Trea Turner and Aaron Judge, only to be spurned. They were determined not to let it happen again, so they overpaid for Bogaerts. They will come to regret it.

The deal, by the way, comes with a full no-trade clause. Bogaerts and his contract will represent dead weight on San Diego's roster for the last half of the deal. Good for the Red Sox for showing restraint and not bowing to pressure.

As more than 100 years of history/evidence shows, the weighted-average OPS of a major league player peaks at age 29 and begins to plummet by age 32. 

So, 100 years of history shows that baseball player tend to peak by age-29 season and then begins to decline from there. For some players, it's slower and more graceful than others. Reaction time is the first thing to go. Batting averages tend to fall and quickness wanes. That's not good for a shortstop who already has limited range and isn't known for his speed.

Power is usually the last thing to go, which makes the contract for Turner (11 years, $300M) so absurd. Neither Bogaerts or Turner is a power hitter. Once the reaction time goes, a player who relies on speed and quickness becomes a liability. That will be the case with Bogaerts.

We can thank Bogaerts for 10 great seasons in Boston. The Red Sox likely got the best of him. He was a four-time All Star and two-time World Series winner with the Sox. He won five Silver Slugger Awards and was a quiet leader.

The Red Sox probably could have retained Bogaerts if they had acted sooner and more decisively, like back in spring training. They probably would have been able to retain him for something like six years, $150M. But once he reached free agency and all the offers that ensued, he was as good as gone.

Even if the Red Sox didn't do the right thing by getting Bogey locked up earlier this year, they ultimately did the right thing yesterday by letting Bogaerts walk while saying, Thanks for everything.

Rafael Devers Is Not a $300M Player

 A big divide remains in how the Red Sox value Rafael Devers and how he values himself.

The third baseman is supremely confident, viewing himself uniquely among his major league peers. He has made public statements that clearly indicate his belief in himself: 

"I’m a different player.”

"I know my worth.”

"I know the type of money I should be making.”

"I’m not focused on what other guys are making or what they are doing. I’m more focused on what I’m doing on the field and what I’m worth.”

These are the words of a self-assured young man, who doesn’t seem inclined to take any sort of hometown discount to re-sign with the Red Sox.

In Spring Training, the Red Sox reportedly offered Devers an extension in the neighborhood of eight years, $168 million — well below his market value.

The Red Sox recently raised their offer to Devers, but there is still about a $100 million gap between the two sides, according to Jon Heyman of the New York Post.

"Word is the Red Sox have now raised their offer to $200 million-plus, probably necessary given the Braves signed less-experienced star third baseman Austin Riley for $212 million," Heyman wrote. "However, with Devers only a year away from free agency, he seeks at least 10 years for $300 million-plus."

That's a big ask by Devers and big gap between the two sides.

No one doubts Devers’ ability with a bat in his hand. The issue comes down to his defense or lack thereof.

Advanced metrics have graded Devers as a subpar third baseman for his entire career.

In 2018, his first full season, Devers led the major leagues with 24 errors.

In 2019, he led all major league third basemen with 22 errors.

In the pandemic shortened 2020 season, Devers led all major league players with 14 errors, more than twice as many as any other AL third baseman, and had the lowest fielding percentage, .891, of all major league third basemen.

In 2021, Devers committed 22 errors, the highest total among major league third baseman, and the second-highest total among all players.

In 2022, he had 14 errors, a good year by his standards. However, he still led all AL third basemen. He also rated as six runs below average by measure of Defensive Runs Saved and two runs below par according to Statcast.

In sum, Devers has led either all American League third basemen or all major league third basemen in errors every year for five straight years.

He’s also rated as a below-average defender by measure of Defensive Runs Saved in every season of his career.

Baseball is a two-way sport, yet Devers is a defensive liability. He’s simply not a $300M player.

Devers will be 27 when he enters free agency. An eight-year pact would take him through his age 34 season, which is reasonable. A whopping $30M per season over eight years would amount to $240M. A 10-year pact at that AAV would be excessive and quite risky.

Devers is listed at 240lbs and could get bigger. He has been a sub-standandard third baseman his entire career. He will soon need to move off third. However, first base will likely occupied by Tristan Casas for at least the next six years.

Third baseman are more highly valued and therefore more highly paid than first baseman, who are more highly valued and higher paid than designated hitters. Paying Devers long-term third baseman money when you know he has to move to first or DH is bad business. 

The Red Sox know this. So do most other clubs.